The NBA Finals and Stanley Cup Finals are coming to an end. The men’s College World Series wraps up shortly after, and all that’s left to get us through the scorching summer months are MLB, WNBA and soccer. Of course there’s some golf and the Olympics mixed in, as well.
Without other distractions, it’s the perfect time to get a jumpstart on some college football prep.
ESPN Analytics released its 2024 College Football Power Index (FPI) ratings and ESPN BET has posted lines for Week 0 and Week 1, as well as some other marquee matchups on tap throughout the fall. Where’s the value in what has been posted? What is the public seemingly valuing early on in the process?
You might think 10 weeks is too soon to start looking ahead, but you know how the saying goes: the early Jayhawk catches the Banana Slug.
Odds by ESPN BET. For the most up-to-date lines, click here.
1. Read, then react
Before firing away at August and September bets, take some time to refresh on how last season ended and the sheer volume of change the sport has undergone this offseason. Last year’s semifinalists have vastly different outlooks heading into 2024, with all four getting a new coach, starting quarterbacks or moving into a new conference.
The Pac-12 ceases to exist, three times as many teams can make the playoff, and the transfer portal carousel continues to spin. ESPN Analytics and FPI factor all this into their projections, so it serves as an ideal jumping-off point.
2. The Florida State vengeance tour begins, but will it start with a bang or a whimper?
After an undefeated season and subsequent playoff snub due to Jordan Travis’ injury, FSU will look to silence its doubters in the upcoming campaign. ESPN BET currently has FSU as the favorite to win the ACC at +260, followed closely by Clemson at +275. Yet, the last time we saw the Seminoles, their performance was anything but spectacular, as they needed a fourth quarter comeback against Florida, squeaked by Louisville in the ACC title game and then were walloped by Georgia 63-3 after half the team opted out.
Florida State kicks off the entire collegiate season in Ireland against Georgia Tech, in what’s currently the most bet-on game at ESPN BET. They’re installed as 13.5-point favorites, a fair line since FPI has it as a 13.8-point FSU win. The Noles then travel home to face their second straight ACC foe, laying 21.5 against Boston College, where ESPN Analytics has a much less rosy outlook. The Eagles are given a 16% chance to win and should be only 17-point underdogs, according to the model, a far cry from the 9% chance to win that BC’s +1000 odds are implying.
3. Georgia will be ready to bounce back
The Bulldogsonly lost two first-round picks to the most recent NFL draft, which would look like a rebuilding year to nearly anyone except Georgia, which had eight first-round picks in the previous two drafts combined.
Since November 7, 2020, Georgia has gone 46-2, with both losses to Alabama. When the Bulldogs take the field against Clemson, it will have been 1,392 days since Kirby Smart lost to anyone other than the now-retired Nick Saban.
After missing out on the Playoff last season following back-to-back title runs, Smart and Georgia will be ready to hit the ground running this year against a Tigers squad that won only half of its ACC games last season. The Bulldogs are FPI’s top-rated team heading into the season, with Clemson at No. 15. ESPN Analytics has Georgia favored by 15.2, a couple points of value on the current line of 13.5 and also crossing the key number of 14.
4. Is Colorado “primed” to make noise in Year 2 of the Deion Sanders extravaganza?
The literal answer, of course, is yes. There’s going to be a lot of noise coming from Colorado‘s campus as Coach Prime motivates his team, but are the Buffaloes ready to compete? Their season opener against FCS North Dakota State should be a great litmus test. The Summit League powerhouse could easily hold its own in a Group of 5 conference, having reached the FCS title game in 10 of the past 13 seasons, and they’re rightfully respected as just 8.5-point underdogs in Boulder (ESPN Analytics has it projected as an 8.7-point victory).
We tackled the idea of combating the hype with a true analysis of on-field play last season after Colorado started 3-0 (it promptly lost 8 of 9 to end the year), and the same can be done in 2024.
Colorado was plagued by terrible offensive line play last year, ranking at the bottom of FBS in sacks and pressures allowed and couldn’t create in the run game. But Colorado has the No. 3-ranked transfer portal signing class, adding third-team All-AAC OL Tyler Johnson, All-CUSA honorable mention OL Justin Mayers and signing the No. 1 OT in the ESPN 300 (19th overall) in Jordan Seaton.
Colorado’s O-Line last season:
56 sacks allowed (second most in FBS)
232 pressures allowed (third most)
45.3% blown block rate (third most)
0.32 yards-per-rush before contact (last)
All that being said, I can’t bet against North Dakota State in this spot. Since rising to FCS royalty just over a decade ago, the Bison are 6-1 straight up and 6-1 ATS against FBS teams, including 5-1 straight up and 5-1 ATS against power conferences. Their average cover margin is an absurd 17.2 points per game in that span, and sportsbooks have seemingly failed to rate NDSU properly.
5. Public is fading USC following the departure of Caleb Williams
According to ESPN Bet, the single most lopsided betting market is one of the crown jewels of the Week 1 slate, as the Trojans and LSU square off in Las Vegas on Labor Day eve. All eyes will be on this matchup as the final Sunday before the NFL season begins, and so far a whopping 78% of spread bets in this game are in favor of the Bayou Bengals.
The public seems to be fading USC on the basis of Caleb Williams carrying the team for the past few seasons, but ESPN Analytics sees it differently. LSU also lost the No. 2 pick in the draft in Jayden Daniels, and two of his record-setting teammates in Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. were both first-round selections, as well. FPI suggests the Tigers should be favored by just 1.9 points, so this could be a prime upset spot for the Trojans.
6. The Big 12 has been completely flipped on its head
It’s true that the poorly-numbered conference hasn’t had 12 teams since 2011, but the massive upheaval across college sports has created a 16-team conference where half of the league was elsewhere just two years prior (BYU, Cincinnati, Houston and UCF joined last season, Colorado has returned, along with Arizona, Arizona State and Utah having their conference unveiling this fall).
It’s rather fitting that the two favorites to win the conference, according to ESPN Analytics, have been mainstays since the formation of the league back in the 1990s. Kansas has a 17% chance to win the conference, best in the Big 12, with Kansas State nipping at their heels at 16%. Both Sunflower State schools face FCS opponents — Lindenwood and UT Martin, respectively — to open their season, and there aren’t currently lines available at ESPN BET, but FPI has both teams projected to win by 30+ points.
But don’t get too confident in rock chalk nation just yet. There are seven teams with +1000 odds or shorter to win the Big 12 at ESPN BET.
ESPN Analytics runs simulations to project the leverage a certain game has on teams’ chances to make the CFP depending on whether they win or lose. The game with the highest leverage in Week 1 is Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M, with both teams likely in the mix for a playoff spot and both ranked top 15 in FPI, making it the second-best matchup of the opening week, as well. According to the model, Notre Dame is projected to win by 3.6 points, which is notable because ESPN BET currently has the Aggies favored with -115 money line odds.
The largest gap between FPI and ESPN BET on opening weekend comes in an intrastate battle between Georgia State and Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets will be coming back from Ireland and will be playing from a travel disadvantage despite hosting the Panthers. Tech is favored by both ESPN Analytics and ESPN BET, but the line is at 19.5 with Georgia State +750 on the money line. FPI has it as a 7-point game with a 34% chance that Georgia State pulls the upset.
Looking ahead to Week 2, the national semifinal rematch between Michigan and Texas is actually the second-most lopsided spread bet at ESPN BET, with 77% of tickets coming in on the Longhorns of the SEC. Similar to the Caleb Williams theory, this is a double fade in the public view with JJ McCarthy and Jim Harbaugh both abandoning Ann Arbor and advancing to the NFL ranks. Oh, and leading rusher Blake Corum and leading receiver Roman Wilson are gone, as are four other top-100 picks in the draft back in April. Maybe the masses are onto something here, as Texas is favored by 3.5 while ESPN Analytics sees it as a 6.3-point victory.
Where the lines don’t align
ESPN BET has a few other notable games cued up with lines for later in the season, and there are two games with significant discrepancies between the sportsbook line and the FPI projection.
Oregon and Ohio State face off as Big Ten opponents for the first time on October 12. ESPN BET has the Ducks favored by a single point at home, which actually means they view Ohio State as the better team on paper. ESPN Analytics projects the Ducks as the second-best team in FBS this season and would make them almost a touchdown favorite in this spot despite losing Bo Nix to the pros.
Alabama and LSU renew their rivalry on November 9, with LSU currently laying 2.5 points. However, FPI values Kalen DeBoer and Jalen Milroe enough to have the Tide rated fifth best entering the season and has Alabama winning by 5.6 points on average.
On New Year’s Eve, Penn State became the first team to lock up a spot in a College Football Playoff semifinal when it beat Boise State 31-14 in the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl. Texas needed double overtime to escape a gritty Arizona State team 39-31 on New Year’s Day and advance to the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic, where it will face Ohio State on Jan. 10 at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Penn State, which has yet to trail in a CFP game, will face the winner of Notre Dame–Georgia in the Capital One Orange Bowl on Jan. 9 at 7:30 p.m. ET. The College Football Playoff Quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl was postponed until 4 p.m. ET on Thursday after a deadly truck attack in New Orleans that killed at least 15 and injured dozens more.
While Penn State awaits its opponent, here’s an early look at the semifinal matchup between Texas and Ohio State. — Heather Dinich
When: Jan. 10, 7:30 p.m. ET. TV: ESPN
What we learned in the quarterfinals: Texas has gone through quite an identity crisis over the past six weeks on offense. The Longhorns went from rushing domination in their final two regular-season games, to not being able to run in the SEC championship, back to rushing domination in the first round against Clemson, back to struggling on the ground against Arizona State. So which Texas rushing attack will show up against Ohio State? There is no doubt that Texas will need a bigger rushing effort to beat the Buckeyes. Perhaps offensive tackle Cameron Williams will be healthy enough to play and will help make a difference. Either way, we learned that Texas still has work to do to put together a complete offensive performance.
X factor: TE Gunnar Helm. Texas likes to utilize its tight ends in the offense Steve Sarkisian runs, and Helm came up huge in the win over Arizona State, with three catches for 56 yards — and the game-winning touchdown in overtime. Helm was big in the opening-round win over Clemson, too, with six catches for 77 yards and a score. Sarkisian praised him leading into the Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl, saying, “The multiplicity of the things that the tight end has to do in our systems make him extremely valuable. When you have a good one, I think that that makes our lives a lot easier from a playcaller perspective.”
How Texas wins: Texas has been ranked the No. 1 defense in the country for the bulk of the season for a reason, and we saw that for large swaths of its win over Arizona State. The Longhorns will have to continue to set the tone up front and get after Will Howard to make him uncomfortable. Michigan provided the blueprint for winning in November, when it dominated the Buckeyes on both lines of scrimmage. Texas certainly has the potential to do that with its defensive and offensive fronts. But the Longhorns will have to absolutely be better on their offensive line to have any shot to win. They were overwhelmed at times by a smaller Arizona State defensive front. — Andrea Adelson
What we learned in the quarterfinals: No one can stop Jeremiah Smith, and by extension, the Ohio State offense. Against an Oregon team that defeated them in October, the Buckeyes came out of the gates at the Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential ready to prove the Ducks didn’t have their number. Thanks to Smith, who caught five balls for 161 yards and had two touchdown receptions of 40-plus yards in the first half alone (he finished with 187 yards), Ohio State looked to be playing at a different speed, as Oregon seemed helpless on both sides of the ball. The freshman wide receiver was a blur, speeding past the Ducks’ secondary with ease while making his case for being not just the best freshman in the country — or the best wide receiver — but one of the best players in the sport. It helped that nearly every Ohio State skill player who touched the ball found gold — running back TreVeyon Henderson averaged double-digit yards per carry while adding two touchdowns, and wide receiver Emeka Egbuka added his own tremendous play in a 42-yard touchdown grab in the first half. It was all a reminder that the best version of this Buckeyes team might just be unstoppable.
X factor: RB TreVeyon Henderson. Texas’ defense might have no choice but to sell out to stop Smith, and though Smith might still get his, it will certainly open things up for other wideouts on the Buckeyes’ offense in addition to Henderson. The senior has not been particularly splashy this season, but he has been consistent. In Pasadena, however, he looked as good as ever, recording his first 100-yard game of the season. There’s no question that Ohio State’s air game is its strength, but if it can pair it with more consistent running from Henderson, the Longhorns will have a tough time on defense.
How Ohio State wins: Short of doing exactly what they did to dominate Oregon in Pasadena, the Buckeyes have a clear recipe for success now. The confidence they inherited from avenging their loss to the Ducks should be enough proof that they have the talent and execution to beat any team remaining, especially Texas. A healthy dose of Smith will be essential, and the stout defense that has had more sacks than any other playoff team so far will need to pressure Quinn Ewers, but a lot will certainly fall on Will Howard‘s shoulders. In the Rose Bowl, Howard looked as comfortable as he has looked all season long. He had no crucial mistakes, threw three touchdown passes and found Smith over and over again to much success. He’ll have to do more of the same in the Cotton Bowl. — Paolo Uggetti
OTTAWA, Ontario — Danny Nelson scored the eventual game-winner in the third period and Trey Augustine made 38 saves, leading the United States to a 4-1 win over Canada on Tuesday night and into the top spot in Group A at the world junior hockey championship.
Cole Hutson and Cole Eiserman each had a goal and an assist for the Americans. Ryan Leonard scored into an empty-net.
Bradly Nadeau scored for Canada, which allowed three goals on seven American power plays. Carter George stopped 24 shots.
Canada finished third in the pool and will face Czechia in Thursday’s quarterfinals. The Americans face Switzerland.
“We’re not here to beat Canada tonight,” Augustine said. “We’re here to win a gold medal.”
The other matchups will have Group B winner Sweden take on Latvia, and Finland square off with Slovakia.
Canada and the U.S. played in the same building exactly 16 years to the day at the 2009 event, when John Tavares scored a memorable hat trick in Canada’s 7-4 comeback victory on New Year’s Eve. The Canadians went on to win a fifth straight gold.
“That’s something that’s storybook-like,” Eiserman said of beating Canada on home soil in the tournament’s marquee round-robin matchup. “Something that you’ve dreamt of.”
The teams met on New Year’s Eve for the first time since Dec. 31, 2016, when Canada picked up a 3-1 victory in Toronto. The U.S. got revenge less than a week later with a 5-4 shootout win in the title game in Montreal.
The Americans opened this under-20 tournament with a 10-4 win over Germany followed by a 5-1 victory over Latvia before losing to Finland 4-3 in overtime. Canada started with a 4-0 defeat of Finland before falling to Latvia 3-2 in a shootout and then rebounding to beat Germany 3-0.
The Canadians had a power play to start the third period while trailing 1-0 after Leonard took a roughing call at the end of the second. Nadeau blasted a one-timer for his first goal of the tournament off a feed from Brayden Yager at 1:58.
Nelson restored the U.S. lead at 4:22, taking a pass from Huston and beating George with his third goal.
The U.S. scored its third power-play goal of the game at 13:21 when Eiserman scored his second and put the game out of reach at 3-1 after a boarding penalty by Canada’s Easton Cowan.
Leonard scored into the empty net with 1:52 left in regulation to spark chants of “U-S-A! U-S-A!”
George, who entered with consecutive shutouts that bookended the Latvia loss, saw his streak end at 133:02 on Tuesday’s first power play to silence the beer-chugging crowd at Canadian Tire Centre.
In the first period, Hutson took advantage of a failed Canadian clearing attempt on a U.S. power play and scored his second goal of the tournament.
Tempers flared later in the period when Canada’s Luca Pinelli and Zeev Buium of the U.S. went off for roughing and then jawed at each other in the penalty box.
Leonard hit another post for the Americans and Carson Rehkopf fired an effort that Augustine, who entered with an .879 save percentage in two starts, got enough of with his glove at the other end before tempers again boiled over at the buzzer.
In another Group A game, Finland beat Latvia 3-0 and finished second in the group. In Group B, Switzerland beat Kazakhstan 3-1 to secure a spot in the quarterfinal round. Also, Sweden completed a sweep of its four preliminary round games, beating Czechia 4-2 in another Group B game.
New York Rangers star goaltender Igor Shesterkin has been placed on injured reserve with an upper-body injury, an NHL source told ESPN on Tuesday.
The Rangers recalled NHL veteran Louis Domingue from the AHL Hartford Wolf Pack. Shesterkin’s backup, Jonathan Quick, is 5-4-0 in 12 games this season with a .907 save percentage and a 2.69 goals-against average.
Shesterkin stopped 21 of 25 shots in the Rangers’ 5-3 loss to the Florida Panthers on Monday night. During that game, Panthers forward Sam Bennett was checked into Shesterkin’s upper body by Rangers defenseman Ryan Lindgren. Shesterkin was down on the ice briefly but didn’t leave the game.
Shesterkin, 29, is 11-15-1 in 27 games this season with a .906 save percentage and a 3.10 goals-against average. While the Rangers are 20th in goals against per game this season, Shesterkin is second among all goalies with 13 goals saved above replacement, according to Stathletes.
It has been an eventful month for Shesterkin. He signed a contract extension with the Rangers on Dec. 6 that makes him the highest-paid goalie in NHL history: an eight-year, $92 million deal that starts in the 2025-26 season. The 2022 Vezina Trophy winner is in the final year of a four-year deal with an average annual value of $5.66 million.
The injury to Shesterkin is the latest bit of adversity for the Rangers this season. They are 16-19-1 after 36 games, having lost four in a row and going 2-8-0 in their past 10. The Rangers were seven points out of a playoff spot entering Tuesday night.