The NBA Finals and Stanley Cup Finals are coming to an end. The men’s College World Series wraps up shortly after, and all that’s left to get us through the scorching summer months are MLB, WNBA and soccer. Of course there’s some golf and the Olympics mixed in, as well.
Without other distractions, it’s the perfect time to get a jumpstart on some college football prep.
ESPN Analytics released its 2024 College Football Power Index (FPI) ratings and ESPN BET has posted lines for Week 0 and Week 1, as well as some other marquee matchups on tap throughout the fall. Where’s the value in what has been posted? What is the public seemingly valuing early on in the process?
You might think 10 weeks is too soon to start looking ahead, but you know how the saying goes: the early Jayhawk catches the Banana Slug.
Odds by ESPN BET. For the most up-to-date lines, click here.
1. Read, then react
Before firing away at August and September bets, take some time to refresh on how last season ended and the sheer volume of change the sport has undergone this offseason. Last year’s semifinalists have vastly different outlooks heading into 2024, with all four getting a new coach, starting quarterbacks or moving into a new conference.
The Pac-12 ceases to exist, three times as many teams can make the playoff, and the transfer portal carousel continues to spin. ESPN Analytics and FPI factor all this into their projections, so it serves as an ideal jumping-off point.
2. The Florida State vengeance tour begins, but will it start with a bang or a whimper?
After an undefeated season and subsequent playoff snub due to Jordan Travis’ injury, FSU will look to silence its doubters in the upcoming campaign. ESPN BET currently has FSU as the favorite to win the ACC at +260, followed closely by Clemson at +275. Yet, the last time we saw the Seminoles, their performance was anything but spectacular, as they needed a fourth quarter comeback against Florida, squeaked by Louisville in the ACC title game and then were walloped by Georgia 63-3 after half the team opted out.
Florida State kicks off the entire collegiate season in Ireland against Georgia Tech, in what’s currently the most bet-on game at ESPN BET. They’re installed as 13.5-point favorites, a fair line since FPI has it as a 13.8-point FSU win. The Noles then travel home to face their second straight ACC foe, laying 21.5 against Boston College, where ESPN Analytics has a much less rosy outlook. The Eagles are given a 16% chance to win and should be only 17-point underdogs, according to the model, a far cry from the 9% chance to win that BC’s +1000 odds are implying.
3. Georgia will be ready to bounce back
The Bulldogsonly lost two first-round picks to the most recent NFL draft, which would look like a rebuilding year to nearly anyone except Georgia, which had eight first-round picks in the previous two drafts combined.
Since November 7, 2020, Georgia has gone 46-2, with both losses to Alabama. When the Bulldogs take the field against Clemson, it will have been 1,392 days since Kirby Smart lost to anyone other than the now-retired Nick Saban.
After missing out on the Playoff last season following back-to-back title runs, Smart and Georgia will be ready to hit the ground running this year against a Tigers squad that won only half of its ACC games last season. The Bulldogs are FPI’s top-rated team heading into the season, with Clemson at No. 15. ESPN Analytics has Georgia favored by 15.2, a couple points of value on the current line of 13.5 and also crossing the key number of 14.
4. Is Colorado “primed” to make noise in Year 2 of the Deion Sanders extravaganza?
The literal answer, of course, is yes. There’s going to be a lot of noise coming from Colorado‘s campus as Coach Prime motivates his team, but are the Buffaloes ready to compete? Their season opener against FCS North Dakota State should be a great litmus test. The Summit League powerhouse could easily hold its own in a Group of 5 conference, having reached the FCS title game in 10 of the past 13 seasons, and they’re rightfully respected as just 8.5-point underdogs in Boulder (ESPN Analytics has it projected as an 8.7-point victory).
We tackled the idea of combating the hype with a true analysis of on-field play last season after Colorado started 3-0 (it promptly lost 8 of 9 to end the year), and the same can be done in 2024.
Colorado was plagued by terrible offensive line play last year, ranking at the bottom of FBS in sacks and pressures allowed and couldn’t create in the run game. But Colorado has the No. 3-ranked transfer portal signing class, adding third-team All-AAC OL Tyler Johnson, All-CUSA honorable mention OL Justin Mayers and signing the No. 1 OT in the ESPN 300 (19th overall) in Jordan Seaton.
Colorado’s O-Line last season:
56 sacks allowed (second most in FBS)
232 pressures allowed (third most)
45.3% blown block rate (third most)
0.32 yards-per-rush before contact (last)
All that being said, I can’t bet against North Dakota State in this spot. Since rising to FCS royalty just over a decade ago, the Bison are 6-1 straight up and 6-1 ATS against FBS teams, including 5-1 straight up and 5-1 ATS against power conferences. Their average cover margin is an absurd 17.2 points per game in that span, and sportsbooks have seemingly failed to rate NDSU properly.
5. Public is fading USC following the departure of Caleb Williams
According to ESPN Bet, the single most lopsided betting market is one of the crown jewels of the Week 1 slate, as the Trojans and LSU square off in Las Vegas on Labor Day eve. All eyes will be on this matchup as the final Sunday before the NFL season begins, and so far a whopping 78% of spread bets in this game are in favor of the Bayou Bengals.
The public seems to be fading USC on the basis of Caleb Williams carrying the team for the past few seasons, but ESPN Analytics sees it differently. LSU also lost the No. 2 pick in the draft in Jayden Daniels, and two of his record-setting teammates in Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. were both first-round selections, as well. FPI suggests the Tigers should be favored by just 1.9 points, so this could be a prime upset spot for the Trojans.
6. The Big 12 has been completely flipped on its head
It’s true that the poorly-numbered conference hasn’t had 12 teams since 2011, but the massive upheaval across college sports has created a 16-team conference where half of the league was elsewhere just two years prior (BYU, Cincinnati, Houston and UCF joined last season, Colorado has returned, along with Arizona, Arizona State and Utah having their conference unveiling this fall).
It’s rather fitting that the two favorites to win the conference, according to ESPN Analytics, have been mainstays since the formation of the league back in the 1990s. Kansas has a 17% chance to win the conference, best in the Big 12, with Kansas State nipping at their heels at 16%. Both Sunflower State schools face FCS opponents — Lindenwood and UT Martin, respectively — to open their season, and there aren’t currently lines available at ESPN BET, but FPI has both teams projected to win by 30+ points.
But don’t get too confident in rock chalk nation just yet. There are seven teams with +1000 odds or shorter to win the Big 12 at ESPN BET.
ESPN Analytics runs simulations to project the leverage a certain game has on teams’ chances to make the CFP depending on whether they win or lose. The game with the highest leverage in Week 1 is Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M, with both teams likely in the mix for a playoff spot and both ranked top 15 in FPI, making it the second-best matchup of the opening week, as well. According to the model, Notre Dame is projected to win by 3.6 points, which is notable because ESPN BET currently has the Aggies favored with -115 money line odds.
The largest gap between FPI and ESPN BET on opening weekend comes in an intrastate battle between Georgia State and Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets will be coming back from Ireland and will be playing from a travel disadvantage despite hosting the Panthers. Tech is favored by both ESPN Analytics and ESPN BET, but the line is at 19.5 with Georgia State +750 on the money line. FPI has it as a 7-point game with a 34% chance that Georgia State pulls the upset.
Looking ahead to Week 2, the national semifinal rematch between Michigan and Texas is actually the second-most lopsided spread bet at ESPN BET, with 77% of tickets coming in on the Longhorns of the SEC. Similar to the Caleb Williams theory, this is a double fade in the public view with JJ McCarthy and Jim Harbaugh both abandoning Ann Arbor and advancing to the NFL ranks. Oh, and leading rusher Blake Corum and leading receiver Roman Wilson are gone, as are four other top-100 picks in the draft back in April. Maybe the masses are onto something here, as Texas is favored by 3.5 while ESPN Analytics sees it as a 6.3-point victory.
Where the lines don’t align
ESPN BET has a few other notable games cued up with lines for later in the season, and there are two games with significant discrepancies between the sportsbook line and the FPI projection.
Oregon and Ohio State face off as Big Ten opponents for the first time on October 12. ESPN BET has the Ducks favored by a single point at home, which actually means they view Ohio State as the better team on paper. ESPN Analytics projects the Ducks as the second-best team in FBS this season and would make them almost a touchdown favorite in this spot despite losing Bo Nix to the pros.
Alabama and LSU renew their rivalry on November 9, with LSU currently laying 2.5 points. However, FPI values Kalen DeBoer and Jalen Milroe enough to have the Tide rated fifth best entering the season and has Alabama winning by 5.6 points on average.
Kristen Shilton is a national NHL reporter for ESPN.
May 20, 2025, 11:10 PM ET
One team had four days to prepare, while the other barely had 48 hours. And yet … the Florida Panthers — after beating the Toronto Maple Leafs in Game 7 on Sunday — once again applied an aggressive approach in a 5-2 win against the Carolina Hurricanes in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference finals on Tuesday.
Practically every championship team has developed certain characteristics it has relied upon over time. That includes the Panthers. One of the ways they’ve advanced to three consecutive conference finals has been to gain a second-period lead. Taking a 3-1 advantage into the final period of Game 1 led to the Panthers winning their 28th straight playoff game in which they’ve led after two frames.
Exactly how did both teams perform? Who are the players to watch next game, and what are the big questions facing the Hurricanes and Panthers ahead of Game 2 on Thursday?
The way that the Hurricanes owned possession was instrumental in how they beat both the New Jersey Devils and the Washington Capitals in order to reach the conference finals for the second time in the past three seasons. They had that control in Game 1, with Natural Stat Trick’s metrics showing that their shot share was 56%.
But it was moments of lack of control that proved crippling — which was the case when a turnover led to A.J. Greer giving the Panthers a 2-0 lead. The Panthers were also able to execute those quick-passing sequences, which accounted for why they went 2-for-3 on the extra-skater advantage against what was the top penalty kill entering the conference finals, at 93.3%. — Clark
Florida picked up where it left off in Game 7 of its second-round Eastern Conference playoff series against Toronto on Sunday — by dominating another opponent.
The Panthers and Hurricanes exchanged chances early in the first period, but once Carter Verhaeghe had Florida on the board it was in control to the finish.
That’s not to say Carolina didn’t push back. The Hurricanes generated some superb opportunities in the second period, and Panthers netminder Sergei Bobrovsky had to be sharp, which has been his resting state since midway through that second-round clash with Toronto. Bobrovsky delivered another dialed-in performance that outclassed Frederik Andersen — arguably the postseason’s top goalie heading into Tuesday’s game — and backstopped the Panthers to another victory.
Florida got contributions from everywhere, starting with its 5-on-5 play and carrying on to the second power-play unit (which scored after the Panthers had gone 15 minutes without a shot on goal in the third period). Despite that lull, it appears all systems are still go for Florida. — Shilton
Three Stars of Game 1
Bobrovsky made 31 saves for the Game 1 victory, allowing two goals. The Panthers have now outscored their opponents 17-4 in their past three road games — in large part due to Bob. The plus-13 goal differential is tied for third highest over a three-game span on the road in a single postseason.
Greer scored the eventual winner, his second goal in his past four games. For context, he had two goals in his final 45 regular-season games this season.
Ekblad scored his seventh career playoff goal, which moves him into a tie with Gustav Forsling for second most by a defenseman in franchise history; Brandon Montour had 11 during his time with the Cats. — Arda Öcal
Players to watch in Game 2
Chatfield was unable to go in Game 1, which meant the Hurricanes would be without one of their top-four defensemen, who is averaging more than 20 minutes per game this postseason. That led to Scott Morrow making his playoff debut.
It proved to be a bit of a difficult outing for the 22-year-old, who spent the majority of this season playing for the Hurricanes’ AHL affiliate. Morrow was on the ice for three of the Panthers’ goals, while his delay-of-game penalty — for playing the puck over the glass — led to Sam Bennett‘s power-play goal that pushed the lead to 4-1 with 13:52 remaining.
Morrow would log a little more than 12 minutes in ice time, which was the least by a Hurricanes defenseman by more than four minutes. Chatfield’s return ahead of Game 2 would bring one of Carolina’s more venerable figures this season back into the mix. But if he misses Game 2? That would force Canes coach Rod Brind’Amour to examine his options. — Clark
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Panthers in complete control after Sam Bennett’s power-play goal
Sam Bennett’s power-play tally fuels the Panthers to a three-goal lead over the Hurricanes in Game 1.
There was one fight in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference finals and, surprising no one, it featured Marchand. The Panthers forward took issue with Carolina defenseman Shayne Gostisbehere appearing to shoot a puck at him, and dropped the gloves.
Marchand received a four-minute penalty and 10-minute misconduct for the interaction, which saw him herded out for the remainder of the third period. Marchand will be back and ready to rumble in Game 2. He was a noticeable presence in Game 1 prior to the tilt with Gostisbehere, putting the screen on Andersen that set up Sam Bennett‘s power-play goal to essentially ice the Panthers’ victory.
Will Marchand carry a sour taste into Game 2 after Gostisbehere didn’t engage much after the apparent puck shot incident? If any player has made a career out of getting under an opponent’s skin, it’s Marchand. He’s already setting a tone early for how the Panthers want to rattle their latest foe. — Shilton
Big questions for Game 2
How do the Canes respond to their worst defeat in more than a month?
The last time the Canes lost by more than three goals was April 13, a 4-1 loss to the Maple Leafs. Since then? They’ve not had many defeats at all, and the two they had this postseason were close. The first was an overtime loss to the Devils in Game 3 — a series that they would win in five games — while their lone defeat to the Capitals was in Game 2, which became a two-goal loss only when Tom Wilson scored an empty-netter.
This postseason has seen the Hurricanes recover from defeats in which the margins were tight. How do they go about finding the cohesion that eluded them in what was a three-goal loss to open the conference finals? And will it be enough to even the series at 1-1 — or will they head to South Florida in 2-0 series hole? — Clark
Are the Cats headed for a crash?
The Panthers are riding on some degree of adrenaline at this point after traveling from Florida to Toronto and then directly to Raleigh after their Game 7 victory. While they didn’t exactly look fatigued in Game 1 against Carolina, it’s still fair to wonder if all those miles are going to catch up to the Panthers with another quick turnaround heading into Game 2.
The Hurricanes know what to expect now — if they didn’t before — and will be ready to make adjustments. And if they were perhaps too rested from having been off for several days prior to Florida rolling in, the Hurricanes have no excuse to not be better on home ice by the time Game 2 comes around.
Carolina showed early in the third period that it’s a better team than the scoreboard’s final tally. The Hurricanes have their legs under them now. Whether that spells trouble for Florida? We find out on Thursday. — Shilton
Chatfield missed Game 5 against the Washington Capitals in the previous round with an undisclosed injury. He skated on Tuesday in Raleigh ahead of Game 1 but was eventually ruled out.
With Chatfield out, Morrow got the call. He’s in his second NHL season, having played two games in 2023-24 and 14 this season, with six points and 15:48 in average ice time. Morrow has been considered one of the best defensive prospects in the Hurricanes’ system since they selected him 40th in the 2021 NHL draft. He spent three seasons with UMass before turning pro in 2024.
Morrow, who had 39 points in 52 games for the AHL Chicago Wolves this season, was eased into the action against the formidable Panthers. He finished with 15 shifts, covering 12:18 of ice time. He had three shots on net but finished with a minus-3 rating.
Morrow is a right-handed defenseman like Chatfield, while Alexander Nikishin shoots left-handed. Coach Rod Brind’Amour said that was going to be a factor in his decision.
“He’s been around a little longer, knows our system a little better than I think Nicky does,” Brind’Amour said of Morrow before the loss. “He played well when he came up. I think he’s earned the right to have a shot, so we’ll see.”
This series is a rematch of the 2023 conference finals that saw the Panthers eliminate Carolina in four games. Game 1 of that series, also held in Raleigh, was a four-overtime classic that ended with a Matthew Tkachuk goal just 13 seconds before it would’ve gone to a fifth extra session. Though the score was much different Tuesday night, the 1-0 series deficit is the same for Carolina headed into Thursday’s Game 2.
RALEIGH, N.C. — Before Game 1 of the Eastern Conference finals, no team had scored more than four goals against the Carolina Hurricanes in the 2025 postseason. No team had scored more than once against their league-best penalty kill. Most importantly, no team had beaten them at home in front of their raucous “Caniacs.”
That is, until the Florida Panthers came to town Tuesday night. Florida humbled Carolina 5-2 to take a 1-0 series lead — 48 hours after eliminating the Toronto Maple Leafs in a Game 7 on the road.
“There’s a lot of emotion in a Game 7. To be ready to compete as hard as you can, knowing that [Carolina] had a few days rest and they’re playing in front of their fans? It was a huge win. Huge win and really happy,” said Panthers forward A.J. Greer, who scored the Panthers’ third goal.
After a physical opening to the game that saw the teams trade 11 hits before a second shot on goal was registered, Carter Verhaeghe broke through on the power play for the 1-0 lead for Florida.
“We wanted to be ready for this game. We know how hard they play here in this building especially, so we wanted to be ready for this game and I think obviously we got rewarded there early,” Florida captain Aleksander Barkov said.
Carolina’s Sebastian Aho was in the penalty box for a retaliatory penalty against the Panthers’ Anton Lundell, who had cross-checked him. The Hurricanes’ penalty kill had stopped 14 of 15 power plays at home and 28 of 30 overall in the playoffs until that Florida goal.
Verhaeghe said the Panthers wanted to start this series strong after dropping the first two games to Toronto in the second round.
“It’s a tough building to play in. This gives us a lot of confidence that we can get a win here. We had a tough start to the last series going down 0-2. That’s one thing we wanted to do this series — at least win the first one,” he said.
Florida’s second goal was indicative of the kind of night it was going to be for Carolina. Forward Logan Stankoven missed a point-blank chance on Florida goalie Sergei Bobrovsky. At the other end, a great Panthers forecheck led by Evan Rodrigues forced a rare turnover from Carolina center Jordan Staal, setting up a chance for Aaron Ekblad to make it 2-0.
All night, the Panthers responded any time it seemed the Hurricanes could grab momentum. Aho scored late in the first period on a goal that was reviewed for a possible kicking motion — Florida coach Paul Maurice said there wasn’t enough on the ice to disallow the goal nor enough on the replay to have the refs overturn it — but the Panthers answered with Greer’s goal at 3:33 of the second period.
“We know what to do. We know the recipe. When everyone’s going and there’s a commitment to play a solid Panthers hockey game … it’s not easy, but it makes it hard for them,” Greer said.
From there, the Panthers added goals from Sam Bennett on a power play and Eetu Luostarinen at even strength in the third. “They got the two power-play goals. That was the difference in the game. We’ve got to kill those,” Carolina coach Rod Brind’Amour said.
Jackson Blake‘s late power-play goal was all Carolina could muster against Bobrovsky and the Panthers.
Maurice said his team handled the significant shift in style well from Toronto to Carolina in Game 1.
“I didn’t love our game tonight, but I understood it. Game 1 is that first look at what your game looks like against a completely different opponent. So we will have to continue to build that game and get better,” he said. “I thought they had good chances that they didn’t finish on. Sergei [Bobrovsky] was very strong.”
Bobrovsky made 31 saves, outplaying counterpart Frederik Andersen (five goals on 20 shots), who had been one of the playoffs’ top goaltenders entering the series. The Hurricanes crashed his net looking for chances, including one sequence in which Andrei Svechnikov‘s hip collided with Bobrovsky’s head.
“It’s OK. It’s the playoffs. They try to get under the skin. I just focus on my things and try not to think about that,” Bobrovsky said.
As expected, emotions did run high at times and forward Brad Marchand was in the thick of it. He earned four minutes for roughing and a 10-minute misconduct after a sequence in which Carolina defenseman Shayne Gostisbehere shot the puck at Marchand following a hit he felt crossed the line. The two then had something close to a fight, although Gostisbehere’s gloves didn’t come off.
“Just heated. I was pretty pissed off. He tried to take a run at me. I shot the puck at him. We had a little [tussle],” Gostisbehere said.