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The NBA Finals and Stanley Cup Finals are coming to an end. The men’s College World Series wraps up shortly after, and all that’s left to get us through the scorching summer months are MLB, WNBA and soccer. Of course there’s some golf and the Olympics mixed in, as well.

Without other distractions, it’s the perfect time to get a jumpstart on some college football prep.

ESPN Analytics released its 2024 College Football Power Index (FPI) ratings and ESPN BET has posted lines for Week 0 and Week 1, as well as some other marquee matchups on tap throughout the fall. Where’s the value in what has been posted? What is the public seemingly valuing early on in the process?

You might think 10 weeks is too soon to start looking ahead, but you know how the saying goes: the early Jayhawk catches the Banana Slug.

Odds by ESPN BET. For the most up-to-date lines, click here.


1. Read, then react

Before firing away at August and September bets, take some time to refresh on how last season ended and the sheer volume of change the sport has undergone this offseason. Last year’s semifinalists have vastly different outlooks heading into 2024, with all four getting a new coach, starting quarterbacks or moving into a new conference.

The Pac-12 ceases to exist, three times as many teams can make the playoff, and the transfer portal carousel continues to spin. ESPN Analytics and FPI factor all this into their projections, so it serves as an ideal jumping-off point.

2. The Florida State vengeance tour begins, but will it start with a bang or a whimper?

After an undefeated season and subsequent playoff snub due to Jordan Travis’ injury, FSU will look to silence its doubters in the upcoming campaign. ESPN BET currently has FSU as the favorite to win the ACC at +260, followed closely by Clemson at +275. Yet, the last time we saw the Seminoles, their performance was anything but spectacular, as they needed a fourth quarter comeback against Florida, squeaked by Louisville in the ACC title game and then were walloped by Georgia 63-3 after half the team opted out.

Florida State kicks off the entire collegiate season in Ireland against Georgia Tech, in what’s currently the most bet-on game at ESPN BET. They’re installed as 13.5-point favorites, a fair line since FPI has it as a 13.8-point FSU win. The Noles then travel home to face their second straight ACC foe, laying 21.5 against Boston College, where ESPN Analytics has a much less rosy outlook. The Eagles are given a 16% chance to win and should be only 17-point underdogs, according to the model, a far cry from the 9% chance to win that BC’s +1000 odds are implying.

3. Georgia will be ready to bounce back

The Bulldogs only lost two first-round picks to the most recent NFL draft, which would look like a rebuilding year to nearly anyone except Georgia, which had eight first-round picks in the previous two drafts combined.

Since November 7, 2020, Georgia has gone 46-2, with both losses to Alabama. When the Bulldogs take the field against Clemson, it will have been 1,392 days since Kirby Smart lost to anyone other than the now-retired Nick Saban.

After missing out on the Playoff last season following back-to-back title runs, Smart and Georgia will be ready to hit the ground running this year against a Tigers squad that won only half of its ACC games last season. The Bulldogs are FPI’s top-rated team heading into the season, with Clemson at No. 15. ESPN Analytics has Georgia favored by 15.2, a couple points of value on the current line of 13.5 and also crossing the key number of 14.

4. Is Colorado “primed” to make noise in Year 2 of the Deion Sanders extravaganza?

The literal answer, of course, is yes. There’s going to be a lot of noise coming from Colorado‘s campus as Coach Prime motivates his team, but are the Buffaloes ready to compete? Their season opener against FCS North Dakota State should be a great litmus test. The Summit League powerhouse could easily hold its own in a Group of 5 conference, having reached the FCS title game in 10 of the past 13 seasons, and they’re rightfully respected as just 8.5-point underdogs in Boulder (ESPN Analytics has it projected as an 8.7-point victory).

We tackled the idea of combating the hype with a true analysis of on-field play last season after Colorado started 3-0 (it promptly lost 8 of 9 to end the year), and the same can be done in 2024.

Colorado was plagued by terrible offensive line play last year, ranking at the bottom of FBS in sacks and pressures allowed and couldn’t create in the run game. But Colorado has the No. 3-ranked transfer portal signing class, adding third-team All-AAC OL Tyler Johnson, All-CUSA honorable mention OL Justin Mayers and signing the No. 1 OT in the ESPN 300 (19th overall) in Jordan Seaton.

Colorado’s O-Line last season:

  • 56 sacks allowed (second most in FBS)

  • 232 pressures allowed (third most)

  • 45.3% blown block rate (third most)

  • 0.32 yards-per-rush before contact (last)

All that being said, I can’t bet against North Dakota State in this spot. Since rising to FCS royalty just over a decade ago, the Bison are 6-1 straight up and 6-1 ATS against FBS teams, including 5-1 straight up and 5-1 ATS against power conferences. Their average cover margin is an absurd 17.2 points per game in that span, and sportsbooks have seemingly failed to rate NDSU properly.

5. Public is fading USC following the departure of Caleb Williams

According to ESPN Bet, the single most lopsided betting market is one of the crown jewels of the Week 1 slate, as the Trojans and LSU square off in Las Vegas on Labor Day eve. All eyes will be on this matchup as the final Sunday before the NFL season begins, and so far a whopping 78% of spread bets in this game are in favor of the Bayou Bengals.

The public seems to be fading USC on the basis of Caleb Williams carrying the team for the past few seasons, but ESPN Analytics sees it differently. LSU also lost the No. 2 pick in the draft in Jayden Daniels, and two of his record-setting teammates in Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. were both first-round selections, as well. FPI suggests the Tigers should be favored by just 1.9 points, so this could be a prime upset spot for the Trojans.

6. The Big 12 has been completely flipped on its head

It’s true that the poorly-numbered conference hasn’t had 12 teams since 2011, but the massive upheaval across college sports has created a 16-team conference where half of the league was elsewhere just two years prior (BYU, Cincinnati, Houston and UCF joined last season, Colorado has returned, along with Arizona, Arizona State and Utah having their conference unveiling this fall).

It’s rather fitting that the two favorites to win the conference, according to ESPN Analytics, have been mainstays since the formation of the league back in the 1990s. Kansas has a 17% chance to win the conference, best in the Big 12, with Kansas State nipping at their heels at 16%. Both Sunflower State schools face FCS opponents — Lindenwood and UT Martin, respectively — to open their season, and there aren’t currently lines available at ESPN BET, but FPI has both teams projected to win by 30+ points.

But don’t get too confident in rock chalk nation just yet. There are seven teams with +1000 odds or shorter to win the Big 12 at ESPN BET.

Shortest odds to win the Big 12:

Utah +325
Kansas State +350
Kansas +600
Arizona +750
Texas Tech +900
Iowa State +1000
Oklahoma State +1000

Quick hitters

  • ESPN Analytics runs simulations to project the leverage a certain game has on teams’ chances to make the CFP depending on whether they win or lose. The game with the highest leverage in Week 1 is Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M, with both teams likely in the mix for a playoff spot and both ranked top 15 in FPI, making it the second-best matchup of the opening week, as well. According to the model, Notre Dame is projected to win by 3.6 points, which is notable because ESPN BET currently has the Aggies favored with -115 money line odds.

  • The largest gap between FPI and ESPN BET on opening weekend comes in an intrastate battle between Georgia State and Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets will be coming back from Ireland and will be playing from a travel disadvantage despite hosting the Panthers. Tech is favored by both ESPN Analytics and ESPN BET, but the line is at 19.5 with Georgia State +750 on the money line. FPI has it as a 7-point game with a 34% chance that Georgia State pulls the upset.

  • Looking ahead to Week 2, the national semifinal rematch between Michigan and Texas is actually the second-most lopsided spread bet at ESPN BET, with 77% of tickets coming in on the Longhorns of the SEC. Similar to the Caleb Williams theory, this is a double fade in the public view with JJ McCarthy and Jim Harbaugh both abandoning Ann Arbor and advancing to the NFL ranks. Oh, and leading rusher Blake Corum and leading receiver Roman Wilson are gone, as are four other top-100 picks in the draft back in April. Maybe the masses are onto something here, as Texas is favored by 3.5 while ESPN Analytics sees it as a 6.3-point victory.

Where the lines don’t align

ESPN BET has a few other notable games cued up with lines for later in the season, and there are two games with significant discrepancies between the sportsbook line and the FPI projection.

  • Oregon and Ohio State face off as Big Ten opponents for the first time on October 12. ESPN BET has the Ducks favored by a single point at home, which actually means they view Ohio State as the better team on paper. ESPN Analytics projects the Ducks as the second-best team in FBS this season and would make them almost a touchdown favorite in this spot despite losing Bo Nix to the pros.

  • Alabama and LSU renew their rivalry on November 9, with LSU currently laying 2.5 points. However, FPI values Kalen DeBoer and Jalen Milroe enough to have the Tide rated fifth best entering the season and has Alabama winning by 5.6 points on average.

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Pirates’ Jones having surgery, won’t return in ’25

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Pirates' Jones having surgery, won't return in '25

Pittsburgh Pirates right-hander Jared Jones will undergo surgery on his right elbow Wednesday and will miss the remainder of the season, the team announced.

Jones, who was slated to be the team’s No. 2 starter this season, has been on the injury list with a UCL sprain in his right elbow. His recovery was trending in the right direction before a setback last week in which he felt discomfort while doing long tosses (100 feet).

Pirates senior director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk said Jones, 23, visited elbow surgeon Dr. Keith Meister on Tuesday and made the decision to proceed with the surgery. A time frame for Jones’ return has yet to be established.

Jones went 6-8 with a 4.14 ERA in 22 starts during his rookie season in 2024, though he did miss time because of a lat injury.

Pittsburgh had hoped Jones would be featured near the top of the rotation, along with reigning National League Rookie of the Year Paul Skenes and veteran Mitch Keller.

Tomczyk said surgery was one of the options presented to Jones at the time of the injury, but Jones, with the support of the club and other medical experts, opted for rehab to give him a “fighting chance” to pitch in 2025.

Jones was shut down for six weeks, then began throwing from 60 feet in late April without issue. It wasn’t until the program was extended to 100 feet that Jones felt discomfort.

First baseman Enmanuel Valdez will also miss the rest of the season after having surgery on his left shoulder.

The Associated Press and Field Level Media contributed to this report.

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Conn Smythe Watch: Who’s leading for MVP of the Stanley Cup playoffs?

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Conn Smythe Watch: Who's leading for MVP of the Stanley Cup playoffs?

Four teams remain in the race for the Stanley Cup. The race for most valuable player of the NHL postseason is a bit more crowded.

Here’s the latest Conn Smythe Watch for the 2025 postseason. We asked over two dozen national writers and beat writers who are covering the conference finals for their top three MVP candidates after two rounds of play. Ballots were collected and tabulated before Game 1 of the Eastern Conference finals.

Keep in mind that in the NHL, the Conn Smythe is based on a player’s performance during the entire postseason, not only the championship round. The award is voted on by an 18-person panel of Professional Hockey Writers Association members.


The current MVP leader

For the second straight round, Rantanen leads the Conn Smythe Watch as he helped lead the Dallas Stars to their third straight conference finals. Through 13 postseason games, he leads all playoff scorers with 19 points, including a playoff-best nine goals.

Rantanen was the only player to appear on every ballot we surveyed from the writers. Only two voters had him anywhere but first place for the Conn Smythe — one national writer had him second, and a beat writer had Rantanen third on their ballot.

As Dallas coach Peter DeBoer put it: Rantanen is playing as if he’s “on a mission.” He was a one-man wrecking crew against his old teammates from Colorado, the team that traded him earlier this season rather than sign him to a contract extension. He did more damage against the Winnipeg Jets in the second round with a Game 1 hat trick on the road.

Rantanen cooled off a little bit later in the series, with one assist in the last three games of the series. But his accomplishments to that point made him the clear MVP in the eyes of our panelists. He’s the first player in NHL history with five three-point games through a team’s first 10 playoff games in a single postseason. He set another NHL record by either scoring or assisting on 13 consecutive goals by his team. At one point, Rantanen had factored in on 15 of 16 goals for Dallas.

One voter noted that the “crazy solo efforts he has had in a couple of games” makes him an obvious choice.

Or as another voter put it: “It’s almost hard to believe the dominance he’s displayed.”

One thing to consider about Rantanen: He has the narrative. The “revenge tour” against the Avalanche in the first round was part of a larger story about proving he’s worth his big new contract with Dallas and that he can thrive as an offensive star without Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar on his team.

“When you think about his journey this year, he’s been through a lot,” DeBoer said. “There’s been a lot written about him. There’s been a lot said about him. There’s been a lot of doubters out there.”

So far, Rantanen has silenced them.

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Kevin Weekes lays out what to expect from the Western Conference finals rematch between the Edmonton Oilers and the Dallas Stars.


The other favorites

This is where we need to reiterate that the ballot tabulation was done before Game 1 of the Eastern Conference finals.

Andersen was the clear second choice among voters before he faced the Panthers. He was voted second for playoff MVP on 47% of the ballots we surveyed.

Before Game 1, he had allowed only 12 goals in nine games for a .937 save percentage and a 1.36 goals-against average. “His stats are mind-blowing when you think about how good Washington’s offense should have been in that series,” one voter said.

After giving up five goals on 20 shots to Florida in Carolina’s Game 1 loss — not all of them his fault entirely — Andersen’s save percentage dropped to .919 while his goals-against average rose to 1.74.

It’s possible that Andersen and Florida goalie Sergei Bobrovsky will see their spots in this ranking flip during the series. But it was only one game, and Andersen’s numbers at home before that loss to the Panthers were quite good.

McDavid was also in the top three in the last round. In the 2024 postseason, the Edmonton star became only the second player in NHL history to win the Conn Smythe in a losing effort, as the Oilers fell in Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final to the Panthers. Now, he’s trying to become the fourth player ever — and the first player since Sidney Crosby (2016-17) — to win consecutive Conn Smythe trophies.

Through 11 games, McDavid has 17 points (three goals, 14 assists). His 1.55 points-per-game average leads all players still active in the postseason. Through 11 games last season, McDavid had 21 points. But that has been one of the things that defined this Oilers’ run to the conference finals: They haven’t needed McDavid and Leon Draisaitl to drag them there on their own. Perhaps that has been reflected in the voting.

For what it’s worth, McDavid is the favorite to win the Conn Smythe on ESPN BET, at +325, ahead of Rantanen (+350) as of Tuesday night.

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Jake Oettinger: McDavid will go down as the best player of all time

Stars goaltender Jake Oettinger joins “SportsCenter” to preview Dallas’ series against Connor McDavid and the Oilers.


Making their cases

These two players received the next highest number of votes outside the top three.

It was notable that one beat writer had Oettinger first overall on their ballot, with Rantanen third. That might be a little bit of recency bias: Rantanen did most of his damage at the end of the first round and early in the second, and Oettinger was a difference-maker in all four of the Stars’ wins against Winnipeg, including Game 7, when he stopped 22 of 23 shots. As dominant as Rantanen was in Game 7 against the Avalanche in the first round, Oettinger made 25 saves and was brilliant late in that elimination game to preserve the win.

Overall, Oettinger has a .919 save percentage and a 2.47 goals-against average in 13 games for Dallas. But he has some work to do: The Stars goalie appeared on only three ballots in total, with one first- and two second-place votes.

Draisaitl is right behind McDavid in scoring with five goals and 11 assists in 11 games for the Oilers. He made the top three on four ballots, with two second-place and two third-place votes.

In his favor are two overtime goals: in Game 4 against the Los Angeles Kings in the opening round to even their series, and then in Game 2 in Las Vegas to give the Oilers a 2-0 series lead. He also had the primary assist on Kasperi Kapanen‘s series-clinching goal in Game 5 against Vegas.

Those moments more than balance one of the lowest points of Draisaitl’s postseason, when Reilly Smith of the Golden Knights scored with 0.4 left in Game 3 on a shot that deflected off of Draisaitl’s stick.

One thing to remember with Draisaitl’s MVP case is the praise he’s receiving for his two-way game. As the Oilers have become one of the best defensive teams in the postseason, posting back-to-back shutouts to end the Golden Knights, Draisaitl could get a portion of the credit.

“You often think of those guys who are putting up a lot of points, they neglect the defensive responsibilities,” Edmonton coach Kris Knoblauch said before the conference finals. “Leon has never neglected his defensive responsibilities. In fact, if I was to show clips on how to backcheck and how to work, getting above the opposition, Leon would be the leading guy on all the clips that I can find, and he’s the one who does it the best.”


On the cusp

Jaccob Slavin, Carolina Hurricanes
Andrei Svechnikov, Carolina Hurricanes
Sergei Bobrovsky, Florida Panthers
Brad Marchand, Florida Panthers

Some Panthers finally make the list! In fairness, that’s a tribute to the balance and depth that Florida has shown through two rounds. The team had 11 players with at least six points through their series win against the Leafs.

Bobrovsky didn’t have stellar numbers entering the conference final (.901 save percentage) thanks to four games in which he gave up four-plus goals. But Playoff Bob has emerged when he’s needed — like in the last four games of the Maple Leafs series and in Game 1 against Carolina, where he might have been the difference in that 5-2 win.

“I try to stay with one moment and not try not to think about the future or past,” he said after Game 1. “So it’s one moment, one save at a time. And that’s pretty much it.”

Marchand was tied for the team lead in points (12) after two rounds, and really made a statement in the MVP race with his Game 7 dagger against Toronto. He also had a critical Game 3 overtime winner after the Leafs took a 2-0 lead in the series.

Both Marchand and Bobrovsky showed up on two ballots. Bobrovsky earned one second-place vote.

Svechnikov was also on two ballots, both third-place votes. The Hurricanes winger was second in the postseason with eight goals after two rounds.

Slavin had two goals and two assists in 10 games, including the overtime winner in Game 1 against the Capitals. He has had an outstanding season, including a much-lauded performance in the 4 Nations Face-Off for Team USA. He also earned a ringing endorsement from Capitals coach Spencer Carbery after Carolina eliminated Washington. “How he’s not in the Norris Trophy conversation every single year, it doesn’t seem right,” the coach said. “He’s one heck of a player.”


Honorable mentions

Seth Jones, Florida Panthers
Eetu Luostarinen, Florida Panthers

Jones has been really strong for the Panthers, especially in their Game 7 win in Toronto. Through two rounds, Luostarinen was tied with his linemate Marchand for the team lead with 12 points, but now leads the team with 13 points after his Game 1 goal against Carolina — remarkably, his 12th point in eight road playoff games.

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Early look at the Stars-Oilers matchup in the Western Conference finals

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Early look at the Stars-Oilers matchup in the Western Conference finals

The NHL’s Western Conference finals matchup is set for 2025: The Dallas Stars and Edmonton Oilers are poised to square off to determine which club will represent the West in the Stanley Cup Final.

To help get you up to speed before the next round begins Wednesday on the networks of ESPN, we’re here with key intel from ESPN Research, wagering info from ESPN BET and more.


Paths to the conference finals:

Stars: Defeated Avalanche in seven, Jets in six
Oilers: Defeated Kings in six, Golden Knights in five

Schedule:

Game 1: Oilers at Stars | May 21, 8 p.m. (ESPN/ESPN+)
Game 2: Oilers at Stars | May 23, 8 p.m. (ESPN/ESPN+)
Game 3: Stars at Oilers | May 25, 3 p.m. (ABC/ESPN+)
Game 4: Stars at Oilers | May 27, 8 p.m. (ESPN/ESPN+)
Game 5: Oilers at Stars | May 29, 8 p.m. (ESPN/ESPN+)
Game 6: Stars at Oilers | May 31, 8 p.m. (ABC/ESPN+)
Game 7: Oilers at Stars | June 2, 8 p.m. (ESPN/ESPN+)

Series odds:

Oilers -120
Stars +100

Stanley Cup odds:

Oilers +250
Stars +350

Leading playoff scorers:

Stars: Mikko Rantanen (nine goals, 10 assists)
Oilers: Connor McDavid (three goals, 14 assists)


Matchup notes from ESPN Research

Oilers

The Oilers are the first Canadian team to make consecutive conference finals appearances since the Toronto Maple Leafs in 1993 and 1994. The only Canadian clubs to make consecutive appearances in the final four in the NHL’s expansion era (since 1967-68) are the Montreal Canadiens (three times), Oilers (three times) and Maple Leafs.

Edmonton advanced to the conference finals for a second straight year and for the third time in the past four postseasons, dating to 2022. The Oilers reached the conference finals in consecutive postseasons for the first time in 33 years, and fourth time in franchise history (1990-92; 1983-85; 1987-1988).

This is the 12th time in franchise history that the Oilers have reached the conference finals. The Oilers tied the Chicago Blackhawks for most final four appearances since Edmonton’s inaugural season in 1979-80.

Connor McDavid has 17 career points in 10 conference finals games, which ranks seventh in franchise history behind Wayne Gretzky (55), Mark Messier (55), Glenn Anderson (48), Jari Kurri (46), Paul Coffey (27) and Craig Simpson (18).

McDavid and Zach Hyman each have six career goals in the conference finals, which is tied with Dave Hunter for sixth in franchise history. Kurri (28), Messier (23), Anderson (21), Gretzky (14) and Simpson (11) are ahead of them.

Kris Knoblauch became the first head coach in 18 years — and seventh during the NHL’s expansion era (since 1967-68) — to reach the final four in each of his first two seasons. He joined Bob Hartley (four from 1999 to 2002), Scotty Bowman (three from 1968 to ’70), Randy Carlyle (2006, 2007), Lindy Ruff (1998, 1999), Mike Milbury (1990, 1991) and Jean Perron (1986, 1987).

Stars

The Stars advance to their third straight conference finals. They join the Tampa Bay Lightning in 2020-22, Chicago Blackhawks in 2013-15, Los Angeles Kings in 2012-14 and Detroit Red Wings from 2007-09 as the only teams in the salary cap era (since 2005-06) to make it to three straight conference finals.

Stars coach Peter DeBoer now is going to his eighth conference finals/Stanley Cup semifinals in his coaching career, which breaks a tie with Fred Shero for third among coaches in the expansion era (since 1967-68) and trailing only Scotty Bowman (16) and Al Arbour (11).

DeBoer is the fourth coach in the expansion era to reach the conference finals/Stanley Cup semifinals in each of their first three seasons with a team, joining Darryl Sutter with the Kings (2012-14), Bob Hartley with the Colorado Avalanche (1999-2001) and Scotty Bowman with the St. Louis Blues (1968-70).

The Stars won two of three games against the Oilers in the regular season, outscoring them 12-9. Jason Robertson (four goals, two assists) and Roope Hintz (goal, five assists) led the Stars with six points in those games.

Mikko Rantanen begins this series as the playoff leader in goals (nine) and points (19) through 13 games. That’s the most goals in a single postseason in his career, and he’s on pace to shatter his single-playoff points high of 25, set in the Avalanche’s 20-game run to the Cup in 2022.

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