General Election 2024: What the polls tell us about what will happen on 4 July

Published

6 days ago

June 15, 2024

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Even a poll-obsessive like me would have to admit that during election campaigns we often spend too much time focusing on the election ‘horse race’ – who is up and who is down in the polls – on an almost hourly basis.

Even in this election, where Labour has been well ahead of the Conservatives from the outset, the focus has been on how much.

Figures for the Labour lead span a huge range from 16 to 25 points. And now there’s talk of “crossover”.

Has Nigel Farage led Reform past the Tories into second place for the first time in a general election campaign?

There’s a 10-point difference between pollsters in the figures reported for Reform UK starting at nine points and reaching 19.

The unprecedented nature of what the top end of these results suggest means we could be heading for a seismic reordering of the political landscape on 4 July. Alternatively, many pollsters could end up with egg on their faces.

What lessons can we learn from polling at previous British general elections?

Perhaps the most fundamental thing is that polls become more informative about the result as election day nears.

Time brings greater accuracy

Simply, the difference between how a party is polling and its actual vote falls by about two points on average over the final 100 days.

Of course, some campaigns see much bigger shifts in the polls while others hardly move at all.

Remember that many people – around one in five – will cast their vote by post, long before polling day. Even if the race tightens, it may be too late for some to change their minds.

The key question to keep in mind when considering the latest polls is whether and how much they move during the campaign and the possibility that they could be getting a particular party’s vote too high or too low. Recent elections offer some salutary lessons about whether we should trust the polls.

In 2019, both Boris Johnson’s Conservatives and Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour made substantial gains during the election campaign – peeling off support from the Brexit Party and Liberal Democrats respectively by firming up their appeals to Leave and Remain voters.

Polling anomaly in 2017

The final polls did a pretty good job of capturing voters’ intentions, being less than a point and a half out from the result across all four parties.

The 2017 election will forever be associated with Theresa May’s imploding campaign and the surge in support for Labour under Jeremy Corbyn.

Labour’s gains in the polls were exceptional, so shouldn’t be treated as a likely blueprint for future dramatic comebacks.

Unusually, the polls underestimated Labour’s vote by around five points – in part because of the very late momentum in public opinion but also as many pollsters had implemented methodological changes designed to correct the polling miss at the previous election.

In contrast, the 2015 campaign was notable for the relative stability of the polls – and the big miss on the Conservative vote in the final ones published.

Cameron surprise

David Cameron defied expectations and won a majority after five years of coalition government.

If you had put your faith in headline voting intention in 2015, the result would have been quite a shock to you. Those who looked at other indicators like ‘best prime minister’ or ‘best party on the economy’ would not have been so surprised by the outcome.

Historically pollsters have tended to be too low for the Conservatives and too high for Labour. The 1992 and 2015 elections were notable for the size of the polling miss – with each leading to inquiries.

There are exceptions to this – most recently 2017 as we have discussed, but also 2010 when support for both parties was underestimated.

Tories in trouble

Lots of comparisons have been drawn between now and the lead-up to Labour’s 1997 landslide. Yet Labour’s lead declined over that election campaign, while the final polls over-estimated the Labour vote.

While a few recent polls have shown a dip in Labour’s vote, overall Labour’s lead has been relatively stable and is now ahead at the same point in the campaign.

There is also no guarantee that the polls are overstating Labour’s lead as they did in 1997.

If current trends continue, the Conservatives could be on course for a far worse defeat than 1997.

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6 hours ago

June 20, 2024

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It was the good, the bad and the ugly for Rishi Sunak during the latest TV election showdown

Published

7 hours ago

June 20, 2024

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It was the good, the bad and the ugly for Rishi Sunak during the latest TV election showdown

From Rishi Sunak, we saw the good, the bad and the ugly during the latest TV election showdown with other party leaders – and a tough and unforgiving audience.

The good came when he broke his silence on the Tory betting scandal early on in his half-hour session of questions, declaring he was “incredibly angry” and vowing that any law breakers would be “booted out” of his party.

The bad followed when he struggled to defend his own policy on national service for 18-year-olds and was tetchy with an audience member who asked about Brexit.

And the ugly came at the end when the audience angrily shouted “shame!” when he launched into Reform UK-style rhetoric about the European Convention on Human Rights and attacked what he called a “foreign court”.

That sort of talk may play well with right-wing MPs and activists, but it bombed here and will have alienated those voters thinking of switching to Labour or the Liberal Democrats.

So Mr Sunak started well, got bogged down in detail in the middle and then ended badly, though he eventually did manage to land some blows on Labour on tax – as he has continued to do so throughout the election campaign.

The two takeaways from the PM’s part of this election programme will be his threat to expel betting wrongdoers and his misjudging the audience on the ECHR.

But not surprisingly, that wasn’t good enough for opposition MPs.

Immediately after the programme, Labour’s Jonathan Ashworth told Sky News Mr Sunak still has not taken any action against Tory candidates Craig Williams and Laura Saunders, who are being investigated by the Gambling Commission.

He should have suspended them immediately, as Sir Keir Starmer has demanded, Mr Ashworth said.

But despite the shouts of “shame!” from the audience on the ECHR near the end, Mr Sunak will feel that with the Tories losing votes to Nigel Farage he had to throw the Tory right and would-be Reform UK voters some red meat.

Those Tory MPs who love to hate the ECHR will no doubt have approved of Mr Sunak’s attack as far as it went – and no doubt accuse the BBC of selecting a “lefty” audience.

Before Mr Sunak, Sir Keir stumbled once again, as he did in his interview with Beth Rigby in last week’s Sky News Battle for No 10 programme in Grimsby, when asked about his support for Jeremy Corbyn.

Host Fiona Bruce repeatedly challenged Sir Keir on why he said Mr Corbyn would make a great prime minister in 2019, but the Labour leader kept dodging the question and looked shifty.

Eventually, Sir Keir said, rather lamely, that Mr Corbyn would have made a better prime minister than Boris Johnson.

Tories will no doubt taunt him on that claim for the rest of the campaign.

Sir Keir’s other tricky moments came when he was quizzed about his dispute with Labour MP Rosie Duffield on trans issues.

“I agree with Tony Blair,” he said. But he shunned the Canterbury MP and couldn’t bring himself to mention her name.

That was disrespectful. The Labour leader seems to have a problem with Ms Duffield. It makes him sound intolerant, which his critics would say is fair criticism.

The surprise here was a solid performance from the SNP leader John Swinney. He is less confrontational than the party’s Westminster leader Stephen Flynn.

He has a funereal style of delivery that has previously seen him compared to an undertaker.

He could also be compared to a Church of Scotland priest reading from the prayer book, to be fair.

But he’s an old pro and a details man, as he demonstrated when answering tricky questions about the SNP performance on the NHS in Scotland and was courteous with members of the audience, even when the questions were tough.

It all began with Sir Ed Davey, who was immediately greeted with the question: “Aren’t you going to bankrupt the country?”

“No,” he replied.

Well, it would have been a shock if he’d said yes.

The second questioner was applauded after he accused Sir Ed of breaking promises in coalition government, citing the Lib Dems’ U-turn on tuition fees.

He was also ridiculed by a member of the audience over his “horseplay” in the campaign, the stunts such as splashing around on Lake Windemere and riding on a rollercoaster at Thorpe Park in Surrey.

And inevitably, he was asked if he was proud of his record as Post Office minister during the Horizon scandal.

The questions were tough, but he dealt with them calmly. His style was that of a fireside chat.