General Election 2024: What the polls tell us about what will happen on 4 July

Published

10 months ago

June 15, 2024

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Even a poll-obsessive like me would have to admit that during election campaigns we often spend too much time focusing on the election ‘horse race’ – who is up and who is down in the polls – on an almost hourly basis.

Even in this election, where Labour has been well ahead of the Conservatives from the outset, the focus has been on how much.

Figures for the Labour lead span a huge range from 16 to 25 points. And now there’s talk of “crossover”.

Has Nigel Farage led Reform past the Tories into second place for the first time in a general election campaign?

There’s a 10-point difference between pollsters in the figures reported for Reform UK starting at nine points and reaching 19.

The unprecedented nature of what the top end of these results suggest means we could be heading for a seismic reordering of the political landscape on 4 July. Alternatively, many pollsters could end up with egg on their faces.

What lessons can we learn from polling at previous British general elections?

Perhaps the most fundamental thing is that polls become more informative about the result as election day nears.

Time brings greater accuracy

Simply, the difference between how a party is polling and its actual vote falls by about two points on average over the final 100 days.

Of course, some campaigns see much bigger shifts in the polls while others hardly move at all.

Remember that many people – around one in five – will cast their vote by post, long before polling day. Even if the race tightens, it may be too late for some to change their minds.

The key question to keep in mind when considering the latest polls is whether and how much they move during the campaign and the possibility that they could be getting a particular party’s vote too high or too low. Recent elections offer some salutary lessons about whether we should trust the polls.

In 2019, both Boris Johnson’s Conservatives and Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour made substantial gains during the election campaign – peeling off support from the Brexit Party and Liberal Democrats respectively by firming up their appeals to Leave and Remain voters.

Polling anomaly in 2017

The final polls did a pretty good job of capturing voters’ intentions, being less than a point and a half out from the result across all four parties.

The 2017 election will forever be associated with Theresa May’s imploding campaign and the surge in support for Labour under Jeremy Corbyn.

Labour’s gains in the polls were exceptional, so shouldn’t be treated as a likely blueprint for future dramatic comebacks.

Unusually, the polls underestimated Labour’s vote by around five points – in part because of the very late momentum in public opinion but also as many pollsters had implemented methodological changes designed to correct the polling miss at the previous election.

In contrast, the 2015 campaign was notable for the relative stability of the polls – and the big miss on the Conservative vote in the final ones published.

Cameron surprise

David Cameron defied expectations and won a majority after five years of coalition government.

If you had put your faith in headline voting intention in 2015, the result would have been quite a shock to you. Those who looked at other indicators like ‘best prime minister’ or ‘best party on the economy’ would not have been so surprised by the outcome.

Historically pollsters have tended to be too low for the Conservatives and too high for Labour. The 1992 and 2015 elections were notable for the size of the polling miss – with each leading to inquiries.

There are exceptions to this – most recently 2017 as we have discussed, but also 2010 when support for both parties was underestimated.

Tories in trouble

Lots of comparisons have been drawn between now and the lead-up to Labour’s 1997 landslide. Yet Labour’s lead declined over that election campaign, while the final polls over-estimated the Labour vote.

While a few recent polls have shown a dip in Labour’s vote, overall Labour’s lead has been relatively stable and is now ahead at the same point in the campaign.

There is also no guarantee that the polls are overstating Labour’s lead as they did in 1997.

If current trends continue, the Conservatives could be on course for a far worse defeat than 1997.

Politics

Meta gets EU regulator nod to train AI with social media content

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2 hours ago

April 15, 2025

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Meta gets EU regulator nod to train AI with social media content

Tech giant Meta has been given the green light from the European Union’s data regulator to train its artificial intelligence models using publicly shared content across its social media platforms.

Posts and comments from adult users across Meta’s stable of platforms, including Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp and Messenger, along with questions and queries to the company’s AI assistant, will now be used to improve its AI models, Meta said in an April 14 blog post.

The company said it’s “important for our generative AI models to be trained on a variety of data so they can understand the incredible and diverse nuances and complexities that make up European communities.”

Technology, European Union, Social Media, Data, Meta — *Meta has a green light from data regulators in the EU to train its AI models using publicly shared content on social media. Source:* *Meta*

“That means everything from dialects and colloquialisms, to hyper-local knowledge and the distinct ways different countries use humor and sarcasm on our products,” it added.

However, people’s private messages with friends, family and public data from EU account holders under the age of 18 are still off limits, according to Meta.

People can also opt out of having their data used for AI training through a form that Meta says will be sent in-app, via email and “easy to find, read, and use.”

EU regulators paused tech firms’ AI training plans

Last July, Meta delayed training its AI using public content across its platforms after privacy advocacy group None of Your Business filed complaints in 11 European countries, which saw the Irish Data Protection Commission (IDPC) request a rollout pause until a review was conducted.

The complaints claimed Meta’s privacy policy changes would have allowed the company to use years of personal posts, private images, and online tracking data to train its AI products.

Meta says it has now received permission from the EU’s data protection regulator, the European Data Protection Commission, that its AI training approach meets legal obligations, and the company continues to engage “constructively with the IDPC.”

“This is how we have been training our generative AI models for other regions since launch,” Meta said.

“We’re following the example set by others, including Google and OpenAI, both of which have already used data from European users to train their AI models.”

An Irish data regulator opened a cross-border investigation into Google Ireland Limited last September to determine whether the tech giant followed EU data protection laws while developing its AI models.

X faced similar scrutiny and agreed to stop using personal data from users in the EU and European Economic Area last September. Previously, X used this data to train its artificial intelligence chatbot Grok.

The EU launched its AI Act in August 2024, establishing a legal framework for the technology that included data quality, security and privacy provisions.

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South Korea blocks 14 crypto exchanges on Apple Store — Report

Published

8 hours ago

April 15, 2025

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South Korea blocks 14 crypto exchanges on Apple Store — Report

South Korea is expanding a ban on digital asset firms’ applications servicing its citizens. On April 11, the country’s Financial Services Commission (FSC) announced that 14 crypto exchanges were blocked on the Apple store. Among the affected exchanges are KuCoin and MEXC.

The report, which was made public on April 14, says the banned exchanges were allegedly operating as unregistered overseas virtual asset operators. The report also states that the Financial Information Analysis Institution (FIU) will continue to promote the blocking of the apps and internet sites of such operators to prevent money laundering and user damage.

The request to block applications on the Apple Store comes after Google Play blocked access to several unregistered exchanges on March 26. KuCoin and MEXC were also targeted during the blocking of the Google Play apps. The FSC published a list of 22 unregistered platforms operating in the country, with 17 of them already blocked on Google’s marketplace.

According to the FSC report, users will not be able to download the apps on the Apple Store, while existing users will not be able to update the apps. The FSC notes that “unreported business activities are criminal punishment matters” with penalties of up to five years in prison and a fine of up to 50 million won ($35,200).

FIU considers sanctions against unregistered VASPs

On March 21, South Korean publication Hankyung reported that the FIU and the FSC were considering sanctions against crypto exchanges operating in the country without registration with local regulators. The sanctions included blocking access to the companies’ apps.

In South Korea, operators of crypto sales, brokerage, management, and storage must report to the FIU. Failure to comply with registration and reports is subject to penalties and sanctions.

The latest sanctions come as crypto is reaching a “saturation point” in South Korea. As of March 31, crypto exchange users in the country passed 16 million — equivalent to over 30% of the population. Industry officials predict that the number could surpass 20 million by the end of 2025.

Over 20% of South Korean public officials hold cryptocurrencies, with the total amount reaching $9.8 million on March 27. The assets varied and included Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH), XRP (XRP), and Dogecoin (DOGE).

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Spot Solana ETFs to launch in Canada this week

Published

12 hours ago

April 14, 2025

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Spot Solana ETFs to launch in Canada this week

Spot Solana exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are set to launch in Canada on April 16, according to Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas.

In an X post on April 14, the analyst shared a private client note from TD Bank, a Canadian financial institution, claiming the Ontario Securities Commission (OSC) greenlighted asset managers Purpose, Evolve, CI and 3iQ to issue ETFs holding Solana (SOL).

The OSC did not immediately respond to Cointelegraph’s request for comment.

Canada does not have a federal securities agency, with its territories and provinces applying their own securities laws. Toronto’s securities exchange is regulated by Ontario’s OSC.

The ETFs are permitted to stake a portion of the SOL holdings for added yield, Balchunas said, adding that the upcoming listings are “our first look at the alt coin race.”

Waiting on US approval

The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has acknowledged dozens of applications to list ETFs holding alternative cryptocurrencies, or “altcoins,” but so far has only approved funds holding spot Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) for trading.

Staking is still off limits for US crypto ETFs. Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart said Ether ETFs could be greenlighted to start staking as soon as May, but the process may take months longer.

However, investors’ demand for altcoin ETFs may be weaker than for funds holding core cryptocurrencies, Katalin Tischhauser, crypto bank Sygnum’s research head, told Cointelegraph in August.

“[T]here is all this frothy excitement in the market about these ETFs coming, and no one can point to where substantial demand is going to come from,” Tischhauser told Cointelegraph.

In March, asset manager Volatility Shares launched the first ETFs to track Solana’s performance using financial derivatives.

Volatility Shares Solana ETF (SOLZ) has seen a lukewarm reception, attracting only around $5 million in net assets as of April 14, according to its website.

“FWIW, the 2 solana ETFs in US (which track futures so not a perfect guinea pig) haven’t done much. Very little in aum. The 2x XRP already has more aum than both the solana ETFs and it came out after,” Balchunas said.

Balchunas added that he “[w]ouldn’t read a ton into it” as a predictor for spot SOL ETFs.

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