General Election 2024: What the polls tell us about what will happen on 4 July

Published

9 months ago

June 15, 2024

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Even a poll-obsessive like me would have to admit that during election campaigns we often spend too much time focusing on the election ‘horse race’ – who is up and who is down in the polls – on an almost hourly basis.

Even in this election, where Labour has been well ahead of the Conservatives from the outset, the focus has been on how much.

Figures for the Labour lead span a huge range from 16 to 25 points. And now there’s talk of “crossover”.

Has Nigel Farage led Reform past the Tories into second place for the first time in a general election campaign?

There’s a 10-point difference between pollsters in the figures reported for Reform UK starting at nine points and reaching 19.

The unprecedented nature of what the top end of these results suggest means we could be heading for a seismic reordering of the political landscape on 4 July. Alternatively, many pollsters could end up with egg on their faces.

What lessons can we learn from polling at previous British general elections?

Perhaps the most fundamental thing is that polls become more informative about the result as election day nears.

Time brings greater accuracy

Simply, the difference between how a party is polling and its actual vote falls by about two points on average over the final 100 days.

Of course, some campaigns see much bigger shifts in the polls while others hardly move at all.

Remember that many people – around one in five – will cast their vote by post, long before polling day. Even if the race tightens, it may be too late for some to change their minds.

The key question to keep in mind when considering the latest polls is whether and how much they move during the campaign and the possibility that they could be getting a particular party’s vote too high or too low. Recent elections offer some salutary lessons about whether we should trust the polls.

In 2019, both Boris Johnson’s Conservatives and Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour made substantial gains during the election campaign – peeling off support from the Brexit Party and Liberal Democrats respectively by firming up their appeals to Leave and Remain voters.

Polling anomaly in 2017

The final polls did a pretty good job of capturing voters’ intentions, being less than a point and a half out from the result across all four parties.

The 2017 election will forever be associated with Theresa May’s imploding campaign and the surge in support for Labour under Jeremy Corbyn.

Labour’s gains in the polls were exceptional, so shouldn’t be treated as a likely blueprint for future dramatic comebacks.

Unusually, the polls underestimated Labour’s vote by around five points – in part because of the very late momentum in public opinion but also as many pollsters had implemented methodological changes designed to correct the polling miss at the previous election.

In contrast, the 2015 campaign was notable for the relative stability of the polls – and the big miss on the Conservative vote in the final ones published.

Cameron surprise

David Cameron defied expectations and won a majority after five years of coalition government.

If you had put your faith in headline voting intention in 2015, the result would have been quite a shock to you. Those who looked at other indicators like ‘best prime minister’ or ‘best party on the economy’ would not have been so surprised by the outcome.

Historically pollsters have tended to be too low for the Conservatives and too high for Labour. The 1992 and 2015 elections were notable for the size of the polling miss – with each leading to inquiries.

There are exceptions to this – most recently 2017 as we have discussed, but also 2010 when support for both parties was underestimated.

Tories in trouble

Lots of comparisons have been drawn between now and the lead-up to Labour’s 1997 landslide. Yet Labour’s lead declined over that election campaign, while the final polls over-estimated the Labour vote.

While a few recent polls have shown a dip in Labour’s vote, overall Labour’s lead has been relatively stable and is now ahead at the same point in the campaign.

There is also no guarantee that the polls are overstating Labour’s lead as they did in 1997.

If current trends continue, the Conservatives could be on course for a far worse defeat than 1997.

Politics

Met Police launches investigation into suspended Reform MP Rupert Lowe over ‘verbal threats’

Published

34 mins ago

March 11, 2025

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Met Police launches investigation into suspended Reform MP Rupert Lowe over 'verbal threats'

The Metropolitan Police has launched an investigation into suspended Reform MP Rupert Lowe.

It comes after the party revealed they had referred him to police and stripped him of the whip on Friday, alleging he made “verbal threats” against chairman Zia Yousaf – which Mr Lowe denies.

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A spokesperson for the Met told Sky News they have now launched an investigation “into an allegation of a series of verbal threats made by a 67-year-old man”.

They added: “Our original statement referred to alleged threats made in December 2024. We would like to clarify that when this matter was reported to us, it referred to a series of alleged threats made between December 2024 and February 2025.

“Further enquiries are ongoing at this stage.”

In response to the update, Mr Lowe said he was unaware of the specific allegations but denied wrongdoing.

“I have instructed lawyers to represent me in this matter,” he said.

“My lawyers have made contact with the Met Police, and have made them aware of my willingness to co-operate in any necessary investigation.

“My lawyers have not yet received any contact from the police. It is highly unusual for the police to disclose anything to the media at this stage of an investigation.

“I remain unaware of the specific allegations, but in any event, I deny any wrongdoing.

“The allegations are entirely untrue.”

Why was Rupert Lowe suspended?

In a statement on Friday, Reform claimed it had received evidence from staff of “derogatory and discriminating remarks made about women” by Mr Lowe, 67, who was elected to his Great Yarmouth seat last year.

The statement also claimed Mr Lowe had “on at least two occasions made threats of physical violence” against Mr Yusuf and “accordingly, this matter is with the police”.

Mr Lowe denied the claims, describing them as “vexatious” and said it was “no surprise” that it had come a day after he raised “reasonable and constructive questions” about Reform leader Nigel Farage.

In an interview with the Daily Mail on Thursday, Mr Lowe had said Reform remains a “protest party led by the Messiah” under the Clacton MP.

Asked whether he thought the former UKIP leader had the potential to become prime minister, as his supporters have suggested, Mr Lowe said: “It’s too early to know whether Nigel will deliver the goods. He can only deliver if he surrounds himself with the right people.”

He also claimed that he was “barely six months into being an MP” himself and “in the betting to be the next prime minister”.

War of words escalates

Those words could have struck a nerve with Mr Farage after Elon Musk, the Tesla and Space X billionaire who has become one of Donald Trump’s closest allies, suggested the Reform leader “doesn’t have what it takes” and that Mr Lowe should take over.

The pair launched bitter personal attacks on each other in articles for the Sunday Telegraph, with Mr Farage accusing Mr Lowe of falling out with all his fellow Reform MPs due to “outbursts” and “inappropriate” language.

He also quoted Labour minister Mike Kane, who said after a confrontation with Mr Lowe in the Commons that his anger “showed a man not in charge of his own faculties”.

In his article, Mr Lowe repeated his claim there is no credible evidence against him, said he was the victim of a “witch hunt” and the Reform UK leadership was unable even to accept the most mild constructive criticism.

Politics

Paxos CEO urges US lawmakers to set cross-border stablecoin regulation

Published

1 hour ago

March 11, 2025

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Paxos CEO urges US lawmakers to set cross-border stablecoin regulation

US lawmakers are set for a heated debate on stablecoin regulation, with key industry leaders expected to outline their vision for the future of digital asset oversight.

Charles Cascarilla, co-founder and CEO of stablecoin issuer Paxos, is scheduled to testify before the House Financial Services Committee, where he will urge lawmakers to establish “cross-jurisdictional reciprocity” in stablecoin regulations.

In his prepared testimony, Cascarilla flagged concerns about the existing hurdles in the adoption of Paxos’ Global Dollar (USDG) stablecoin due to it being issued via a regulated affiliate in Singapore.

“We fear that products like Paxos’ Global Dollar (USDG) stablecoin, issued by a regulated affiliate in Singapore, will languish while departments and agencies make their determinations,” Cascarilla wrote in his speech.

US must act to prevent regulatory stablecoin arbitrage

Cascarilla recommended US lawmakers strengthen the current “international reciprocity language” to include clearly defined, accelerated timelines for the US Treasury Department to designate overseas jurisdictions for stablecoin regulation.

“This timeframe would force swift action and prevent bureaucratic delays while guaranteeing thorough scrutiny of foreign regulatory regimes,” the executive said.

Cascarilla emphasized that potential delays in applying such action would be a major hurdle in the adoption and distribution of stablecoins like USDG in the US as well as cross-border operations.

“Reciprocity is not about lowering standards — it’s about raising them globally,” Cascarilla said, adding:

“By establishing a framework to recognize jurisdictions with comparable regulatory regimes — covering reserve requirements, AML measures and cybersecurity protocols — the United States can prevent regulatory arbitrage, where issuers exploit lax oversight abroad.”

Paxos stablecoins were deemed non-compliant in the EU

Cascarilla’s remarks come amid some Paxos-issued stablecoins facing compliance issues in the European Union following the enforcement of its crypto regulation framework, Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA).

Since the MiCA framework went into full force in December 2024, multiple crypto asset service providers in the EU — including Crypto.com and Coinbase — have announced the delistings of Paxos stablecoins, including Pax Dollar (PAX) and Pax Gold (PAXG).

While Paxos’ Cascarilla is now calling for the US to take urgent action in forcing a global framework for stablecoin issuers that are regulated outside of the US, some industry CEOs have urged all stablecoin firms to get regulated domestically instead.

In February, Circle co-founder Jeremy Allaire argued that all dollar-based stablecoin issuers should register in the US, citing consumer protection and fair competition in the crypto market. He stated:

“Whether you are an offshore company or based in Hong Kong, if you want to offer your US dollar stablecoin in the US, you should register in the US just like we have to go register everywhere else.”

Issued and regulated in the US, Circle’s USDC (USDC) stablecoin was officially approved as the first MiCA-compliant stablecoin in 2024.

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Politics

Meteora says co-founder’s X account hacked after ‘parasitic’ memecoin post

Published

4 hours ago

March 11, 2025

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Meteora says co-founder’s X account hacked after ‘parasitic’ memecoin post

The X account of Meteora co-founder Ben Chow was reported to have been hacked after it posted a tweet reigniting the controversy around the launch of the Libra (LIBRA), Melania Meme (MELANIA) and Official Trump (TRUMP) memecoin tokens that ultimately led to his resignation.

On March 11, Chow’s X account posted an “official statement” about his departure from Meteora. The post called out DefiTuna founders Vlad Pozniakov and Dhirk, claiming the duo’s sole intention was to extract the maximum funds possible from various memecoin token launches, including MELANIA, Mates (MATES) and a Raydium launch.

“As a long time Solana builder, the reason I stepped down is because I am far too trusting for how parasitic the memecoin space is.”

The controversial memecoin plot thickens for Meteora

However, Meteora’s official X account flagged the post as fraudulent, claiming that Chow’s X account was compromised and urged users to refrain from clicking on any links.

Chow did not respond to Cointelegraph’s request for comment. The fraudulent tweet has since been deleted after the account was recovered by Meteora.

Chow’s message contained alleged screenshots of WhatsApp conversations between Kelsier Ventures CEO Hayden Davis, Kelsier Ventures’ chief operating officer Gideon Davis, and Pozniakov discussing the MATES token, where one was quoted saying: “Yeah fellas tbh we are trying to max extract on this one.”

The legitimacy of the conversations could not be verified.

Meteora co-founder Zen, who has since taken up the role of CEO, said that Meteora’s X account was also compromised along with Chow’s:

“It’s true that someone gained access momentarily to our Meteora X account. We’ve since reset the account and now verifying.”

Investors were advised against clicking on any links shared from the accounts to avert financial losses.

Implications of memecoin speculation in Argentine politics

Argentine President Javier Milei is facing calls for impeachment after endorsing a Solana-native LIBRA token. Milei’s endorsement caused the token’s value to surge from near zero to $5, briefly reaching a $4 billion market capitalization.

However, a massive sell-off event followed that caused LIBRA’s value to drop rapidly, wiping out millions in investor funds in the process.

Milei dismissed rug pull allegations, claiming that he regularly promotes business projects as part of his free-market philosophy. His endorsement of the KIP Protocol, the developers behind LIBRA, was a part of the broader policy.

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