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Even a poll-obsessive like me would have to admit that during election campaigns we often spend too much time focusing on the election ‘horse race’ – who is up and who is down in the polls – on an almost hourly basis.

Even in this election, where Labour has been well ahead of the Conservatives from the outset, the focus has been on how much.

Figures for the Labour lead span a huge range from 16 to 25 points. And now there’s talk of “crossover”.

Has Nigel Farage led Reform past the Tories into second place for the first time in a general election campaign?

There’s a 10-point difference between pollsters in the figures reported for Reform UK starting at nine points and reaching 19.

The unprecedented nature of what the top end of these results suggest means we could be heading for a seismic reordering of the political landscape on 4 July. Alternatively, many pollsters could end up with egg on their faces.

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What lessons can we learn from polling at previous British general elections?

Perhaps the most fundamental thing is that polls become more informative about the result as election day nears.

Time brings greater accuracy

Simply, the difference between how a party is polling and its actual vote falls by about two points on average over the final 100 days.

Of course, some campaigns see much bigger shifts in the polls while others hardly move at all.

Remember that many people – around one in five – will cast their vote by post, long before polling day. Even if the race tightens, it may be too late for some to change their minds.

The key question to keep in mind when considering the latest polls is whether and how much they move during the campaign and the possibility that they could be getting a particular party’s vote too high or too low. Recent elections offer some salutary lessons about whether we should trust the polls.

In 2019, both Boris Johnson’s Conservatives and Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour made substantial gains during the election campaign – peeling off support from the Brexit Party and Liberal Democrats respectively by firming up their appeals to Leave and Remain voters.

Polling anomaly in 2017

The final polls did a pretty good job of capturing voters’ intentions, being less than a point and a half out from the result across all four parties.

The 2017 election will forever be associated with Theresa May’s imploding campaign and the surge in support for Labour under Jeremy Corbyn.

Labour’s gains in the polls were exceptional, so shouldn’t be treated as a likely blueprint for future dramatic comebacks.

Unusually, the polls underestimated Labour’s vote by around five points – in part because of the very late momentum in public opinion but also as many pollsters had implemented methodological changes designed to correct the polling miss at the previous election.

In contrast, the 2015 campaign was notable for the relative stability of the polls – and the big miss on the Conservative vote in the final ones published.

Cameron surprise

David Cameron defied expectations and won a majority after five years of coalition government.

If you had put your faith in headline voting intention in 2015, the result would have been quite a shock to you. Those who looked at other indicators like ‘best prime minister’ or ‘best party on the economy’ would not have been so surprised by the outcome.

Historically pollsters have tended to be too low for the Conservatives and too high for Labour. The 1992 and 2015 elections were notable for the size of the polling miss – with each leading to inquiries.

There are exceptions to this – most recently 2017 as we have discussed, but also 2010 when support for both parties was underestimated.

Tories in trouble

Lots of comparisons have been drawn between now and the lead-up to Labour’s 1997 landslide. Yet Labour’s lead declined over that election campaign, while the final polls over-estimated the Labour vote.

While a few recent polls have shown a dip in Labour’s vote, overall Labour’s lead has been relatively stable and is now ahead at the same point in the campaign.

There is also no guarantee that the polls are overstating Labour’s lead as they did in 1997.

If current trends continue, the Conservatives could be on course for a far worse defeat than 1997.

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5 countries where crypto is (surprisingly) tax-free in 2025

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5 countries where crypto is (surprisingly) tax-free in 2025

5 countries where crypto is (surprisingly) tax-free in 2025

Looking to live tax-free with crypto in 2025? These five countries, including the Cayman Islands, UAE and Germany, still offer legal, zero-tax treatment for cryptocurrencies.

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Children with special needs will ‘always’ have ‘legal right’ to support, education secretary says

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Children with special needs will 'always' have 'legal right' to support, education secretary says

The education secretary has said children with special needs will “always” have a legal right to additional support as she sought to quell a looming row over potential cuts.

The government is facing a potential repeat of the debacle over welfare reform due to suggestions it could scrap tailored plans for children and young people with special needs in the classroom.

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Speaking in the Commons on Monday, Bridget Phillipson failed to rule out abolishing education, health and care plans (EHCPs) – legally-binding plans to ensure children and young people receive bespoke support in either mainstream or specialist schools.

Laura Trott, the shadow education secretary, said parents’ anxiety was “through the roof” following reports over the weekend that EHCPs could be scrapped.

She said parents “need and deserve answers” and asked: “Can she confirm that no parent or child will have their right to support reduced, replaced or removed as a result of her planned changes?”

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Sophy’s thought on whether to scrap EHCPs

Ms Phillipson said SEND provision was a “serious and complex area” and that the government’s plans would be set out in a white paper that would be published later in the year.

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“I would say to all parents of children with SEND, there is no responsibility I take more seriously than our responsibility to some of the most vulnerable children in our country,” she said.

“We will ensure, as a government, that children get better access to more support, strengthened support, with a much sharper focus on early intervention.”

ECHPs are drawn up by local councils and are available to children and young people aged up to 25 who need more support than is provided by the Special Educational Needs and Disabilities (SEND) budget.

They identify educational, health and social needs and set out the additional support to meet those needs.

In total, there were 638,745 EHCPs in place in January 2025 – up 10.8% on the same point last year.

‘Rebel ready’

One Labour MP said they were concerned the government risked making the “same mistakes” over ECHPs as it did with the row over welfare, when it was eventually forced into a humiliating climbdown in the face of opposition by Labour MPs.

“The political risk is much higher even than with welfare, and I’m worried it’s being driven by a need to save money which it shouldn’t be,” they told Sky News.

“Some colleagues are rebel ready.”

The MP said the government should be “charting a transition from where we are now to where we need to be”, adding: “That may well be a future without ECHPs, because there is mainstream capacity – but that cannot be a removal of current provision.”

Later in the debate, Ms Phillipson said children with special educational needs and disabilities would “always” have a “legal right” to additional support as she accused a Conservative MP of attempting to “scare” parents.

“The guiding principle of any reform to the SEND system that we will set out will be about better support for children, strengthened support for children and improved support for children, both inside and outside of special schools,” she said.

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“Improved inclusivity in mainstream schools, more specialist provision in mainstream schools, and absolutely drawing on the expertise of the specialist sector in creating the places where we need them, there will always be a legal right … to the additional support… that children with SEND need.”

Her words were echoed by schools minister Catherine McKinnell, who also did not rule out changing ECHPs.

She told the Politics Hub With Sophy Ridge that the government was “focused on reforming the whole system”.

“Children and families have been left in a system where they’ve had to fight for their child’s education, and that has to change,” she said.

She added that EHCPs have not necessarily “fixed the situation” for some children – but for others it’s “really important”.

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Government to ban ‘appalling’ non-disclosure agreements that silence victims of abuse at work

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Government to ban 'appalling' non-disclosure agreements that silence victims of abuse at work

Victims will no longer have to “suffer in silence”, the government has said, as it pledges to ban non-disclosure agreements (NDAs) designed to silence staff who’ve suffered harassment or discrimination.

Accusers of Harvey Weinstein, the former film producer and convicted sex offender, are among many in recent years who had to breach such agreements in order to speak out.

Labour has suggested an extra section in the Employment Rights Bill that would void NDAs that are intended to stop employees going public about harassment or discrimination.

The government said this would allow victims to come forward about their situation rather than remain “stuck in unwanted situations, through fear or desperation”.

Zelda Perkins, former assistant to Harvey Weinstein, led the calls for wrongful NDAs to be banned. Pic: Reuters
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Zelda Perkins, former assistant to Harvey Weinstein, led the calls for wrongful NDAs to be banned. Pic: Reuters

Zelda Perkins, Weinstein’s former assistant and founder of Can’t Buy My Silence UK, said the changes would mark a “huge milestone” in combatting the “abuse of power”.

She added: “This victory belongs to the people who broke their NDAs, who risked everything to speak the truth when they were told they couldn’t. Without their courage, none of this would be happening.”

Deputy prime minister Angela Rayner said the government had “heard the calls from victims of harassment and discrimination” and was taking action to prevent people from having to “suffer in silence”.

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Weinstein found guilty of sex crime in retrial

An NDA is a broad term that describes any agreement that restricts what a signatory can say about something and was originally intended to protect commercially sensitive information.

Currently, a business can take an employee to court and seek compensation if they think a NDA has been broken – even if that person is a victim or witness of harassment or discrimination.

“Many high profile cases” have revealed NDAs are being manipulated to prevent people “speaking out about horrific experiences in the workplace”, the government said.

Announcing the amendments, employment minister Justin Madders said: “The misuse of NDAs to silence victims of harassment or discrimination is an appalling practice that this government has been determined to end.”

The bill is currently in the House of Lords, where it will be debated on 14 July, before going on to be discussed by MPs as well.

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