Connect with us

Published

on

This week the leaders were selling their visions to voters as they launched their manifestos, and Sunak and Starmer went head to head in Grimbsy at the Sky News live election special The Battle For Number 10.

Watch their journeys in the latest week in our animated map below.

This campaign is being fought on new electoral boundaries, with many constituencies undergoing significant changes since 2019.

For the purposes of this analysis, we use notional results based on calculations by Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher, Honorary Professors at the University of Exeter, which estimate the 2019 election seat results if they had taken place on the new constituency boundaries.

Manifesto week

We’re now more than halfway through the general election campaign and voting will soon be under way as postal ballots start to arrive through letterboxes.

In the final pushes to persuade the electorate, this week the parties have been releasing their manifestos.

The choices they’ve made about where to launch them reveal a narrative of safety.

? Click here to follow the Sky News Daily wherever you get your podcasts?

The prime minister chose Northamptonshire South in the East Midlands to launch the Conservative manifesto, where they have a 42.4% majority.

This is Andrea Leadsom’s old seat, one of the safer Conservative constituencies in that region. Boundaries have changed over time, but none of its predecessors have been Labour.

But it’s starting to look like there are no safe Tory seats. Recent Sky News/YouGov MRP polling suggests they could lose it, placing this seat as a “toss-up” Conservative hold, i.e. too close to call. If Labour won here, the required swing of 21.2 means they’d be well into decisive majority territory.

On Thursday Sir Keir Starmer chose Manchester Central as the launching pad for Labour’s manifesto. This is Lucy Powell’s seat and her majority is 44.4%.

This is home turf, and a rare venture into Labour heartlands for Starmer, who so far has only visited seats his party already hold three times in his 23 constituency tally – a safe choice for a safety first manifesto.

? Click here to follow the Sky News Daily wherever you get your podcasts?

Both location choices are key areas of support for the main parties. The Greens did the same in choosing to launch in Hove, the home of their first and only seat in the House of Commons, Brighton Pavilion.

Sir Ed Davey, who has been keeping everyone guessing throughout his campaign, made the curious choice of Hackney South & Shoreditch, a seat that has been Labour since its creation, represented by chair of The Public Accounts Committee Meg Hillier since 2005.

But he was soon back on the attack in Tory territory, following up with a visit to ride a rollercoaster at Thorpe Park in Surrey.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Ultimate guide to the election

Where are the troops?

The prime minister has cut a lone figure on the campaign trail, rarely seen with senior members of his party or indeed visiting their seats.

As Sky News revealed earlier this week, his image and Conservative Party branding have often been absent on much of their campaign material. One man who did make an appearance on Andrea Jenkyns’ leaflets for Leeds South West was Reform leader Nigel Farage, and that’s indicative of Sunak’s problem.

In the first two weeks he was fighting on two fronts, but now it seems the new Reform leader has just opened a third. Sunak’s woeful week ended with a YouGov poll suggesting his party could have now even dropped into third place.

So which cabinet ministers in trouble have had a visit from Sunak to boost their chances?

This week, none of them, and since the start of the campaign, just two of them.

Those were Work an Pensions Secretary Mel Stride’s Devon Central in the first week of campaigning, and Michelle Donelan, Science, Innovation and Technology Secretary in Melksham & Devizes in the second week.

He has visited four other ministerial seats, all of which polling has suggested could be at risk. Those were Justin Tomlinson in Swindon North, Jacob Young in Redcar, David Johnston in Didcot & Wantage, and David Rutley in Macclesfield.

So far no visit from the PM to the likes of Penny Mordaunt, Johnny Mercer and Grant Shapps, all of whom are said to be in a close fight for their parliamentary careers.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Highlights from Sky’s leaders’ event

Sir Keir Starmer has also spent little time in shadow cabinet constituencies, instead taking many of them on the road with him to seats he’s targeting from the Tories.

Some have also been deployed in key areas where they’re popular, like deputy Labour leader Angela Rayner who has been spending time in the north of England seats that Labour lost to the Conservatives in recent elections. She’s also been hitting “true blue” northern areas like Macclesfield and Altrincham & Sale West, which have never been represented by a Labour MP.

Follow Sky News on WhatsApp
Follow Sky News on WhatsApp

Keep up with all the latest news from the UK and around the world by following Sky News

Tap here

Battle is in the areas that take Labour to a large majority

At Sky’s event on Wednesday, Starmer let slip that he’s expecting to be in government.

A national uniform swing of 8.3 points from the Conservatives would make Labour the largest party, one of 12.7 would deliver them a majority. If Labour uses its vote more efficiently than in the past and gains extra seats in Scotland then it reduces the overall swing required.

So far, Starmer has visited nine target constituencies which require swings of less 8.3 points vs 11 which require a greater vote swing. One of those which he visited this this week was Redcar, where Sunak went last week.

Labour’s candidate Anna Turley is trying to win it back after losing to the Conservatives in 2019. Last week we outlined its importance for each party’s campaign.

He has only visited five places where the swing required is more than 12.7, such as Nuneaton, a Brexit voting constituency in the West Midlands held by Labour in the early Blair years but Conservative since Cameron. The required swing to gain for Labour is 14.5 points.

Twenty-one of the 34 seats that Sunak has visited are Con-Lab battles that he defends. Seven have swings of less than 8.3 for it to be a Labour gain, while eight require swings bigger than 12.7.

Then there is the final front on which Sunak is defending: against the Lib Dems. Sunak has been to 11 seats where he’s fighting them off, such as Horsham in West Sussex this week where the Lib Dems need a swing of 15.5.

All bar two of Davey’s 27 visits have been to targets the Tories defend, where the average swing needed is 22.4 points.


Dr Hannah Bunting is a Sky News elections analyst and Co-director of The Elections Centre at the University of Exeter.


The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

Continue Reading

Politics

Labour’s Lucy Powell will take a ‘submarine approach’ as deputy PM – for now

Published

on

By

Labour's Lucy Powell will take a 'submarine approach' as deputy PM - for now

Lucy Powell’s had quite the political comeback. Sacked from cabinet by the prime minister but weeks ago, she’s back with her own powerbase and voice at the top of the party as the deputy Labour leader.

She was not Keir Starmer‘s choice and, while the prime minister was quick to embrace her on Saturday as the result was announced, he is probably right to feel some unease about the outcome for a few different reasons.

For in Powell, the party has a new, alternative figurehead that sits outside of the government machine.

Politics live: Follow updates as Labour names new deputy leader

The PM congratulates Lucy Powell after she is announced as new deputy leader. Pic: PA
Image:
The PM congratulates Lucy Powell after she is announced as new deputy leader. Pic: PA

She ran a campaign in which she pledged to be the voice of the membership to the leadership and the membership picked her. She will have serious influence on the National Executive Committee, and sit in the political cabinet.

What she won’t do is return to the cabinet table, which means that she has power and profile, but will remain an independent voice, free from collective cabinet responsibility.

More on Keir Starmer

As I understand it, Powell doesn’t want to destabilise the leadership – for now at least.

She will take a submarine approach when it comes to interventions around government policy rather than offering a running commentary on Starmer’s government and choose her battles.

That way, when she does weigh in, she is harder to ignore.

She could also over time become a lightning rod for discontent should the party’s fortunes remain as parlous as they are now.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Powell aims to unite Labour Party

On Friday, Labour suffered a cataclysmic defeat in the Caerphilly by-election, coming third in a seat it has held for over a century as Labour endured their biggest ever drop in support in a Welsh by-election.

It’s a terrible omen for next May’s Sennedd election. Labour have been the governing party in Wales since the Senedd’s beginning in 1999. That could be about to change.

When I asked Keir Starmer about the loss on Friday, he didn’t try to deflect, saying: “I’m deeply disappointed by the results.”

When I asked him if it was a gut punch, he said: “I’m not going to suggest otherwise. I spoke to the first minister on Saturday morning, and clearly we need to reflect and regroup, and double down on the delivery, in Wales. And we clearly need to do much more.”

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Phillipson: Powell has my full support

Powell’s position now is that the party needs to pull together, get campaigning and try to build support with their voters.

But she is equally clear that this has to be down to delivery of the “national renewal” Labour promised voters in the election of 2024.

There will surely come a point, further down the road, where this new deputy leader will become more robust in her critique of the government if it fails to deliver and the party suffers.

This race has also exposed the ugliness in a party that is uneasy with its leadership and seems intent on infighting.

The constant briefing wars that emanate from Number 10 cascade down in what has been, at times, a dirty fight.

Lucy Powell accused Bridget Phillipson’s team of “throwing mud” and briefing against her in the Labour deputy leadership race on our Electoral Dysfunction podcast, while Phillipson also said she was at the sharp end of vicious smears.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Powell hits back at claims she ‘can’t be trusted’

👉 Click here to listen to Electoral Dysfunction on your podcast app 👈

For all the talk on Saturday for coming together and unity, it is hard to see that materialising while doubts persist over Starmer’s leadership and while rivals, such as Powell’s close ally Andy Burnham, are waiting in the wings.

There is also the big question of apathy. Only 16.6% of party members, trade union members and affiliates chose to vote in this election, against 59% in 2020.

This is partly distorted because in the last leadership election, members were voting for both the leader and deputy leaders. But what it also suggests is disengagement from the wider Labour movement.

In 2020, there were 552,000 party members eligible to vote, out of a total membership which stood at 782,000, including union-affiliated members who are perhaps less likely to cast a vote.

This time around there were 970,000 eligible voters – but the Labour Party did not reveal how many actual party members cast a vote.

This might be because membership figures are dropping, and it didn’t want to reveal that information. At the end of last year, party membership stood at 332,000, which is around 200,000 members less than the end of 2019.

For now, Powell insists that she and Starmer will work as a team and the message from both Powell and the PM following her victory is that all of those party must put its shoulder to the wheel to try and see off the threat of Reform.

She is undoubtedly starting out as the party’s campaigner in chief, but I suspect she may become a far more critical – and dangerous – voice, if Starmer looks like he can’t get the party in good enough shape to win the next general election.

Continue Reading

Politics

Who is Labour’s new deputy leader Lucy Powell and what does she stand for?

Published

on

By

Who is Labour's new deputy leader Lucy Powell and what does she stand for?

Lucy Powell has been elected as the deputy leader of the Labour Party.

But who is she and what does she stand for?

Powell began her career in politics working for Labour MPs Glenda Jackson and Beverley Hughes.

She then worked for a pro-EU campaign group.

After that, she ran Ed Miliband’s successful Labour leadership campaign and was his deputy chief of staff until she was elected as the MP for Manchester Central in 2012.

She has been at the forefront of Labour politics for over a decade, serving under Ed Miliband, Jeremy Corbyn and Keir Starmer.

After Labour won the last general election, she was appointed as the leader of the House of Commons in Starmer’s cabinet.

But last month she was sacked in the cabinet reshuffle and came to be seen as the anti-Starmer candidate.

During the deputy leadership campaign, Powell promised to “provide a stronger, more independent voice” for members of the Labour Party.

And in her acceptance speech, she said the government hadn’t been bold enough, and that it needed to step up.

So how much of a problem is she going to be for Keir Starmer?

Her new role – and being outside the cabinet – means she will be free to criticise the government, which could make life more difficult for the prime minister.

Read More:
Lucy Powell named Labour’s new deputy leader
Powell will take a ‘submarine approach’ – for now

Powell has been outspoken about her desire for the government to lift the two child benefit cap – and also called for the country to work for the many and not the few – a Corbyn-era slogan – and that Labour must stop handing the megaphone over to Reform and letting them run away with it.

Starmer will be conscious that an MP he sacked not long ago is now in a powerful role able to speak freely and attack his decisions.

But Powell is not free from her own controversies.

In May, Lucy Powell called grooming gangs a dog whistle issue – something she later had to clarify after it caused outrage among campaigners and opposition parties.

She also vocally defended Labour’s unpopular cut to winter fuel allowance while in cabinet, before the government then U-turned on the policy – she then criticised the proposed welfare cuts after she was sacked from government.

Powell insists she wants to help Keir Starmer, providing constructive criticism and a voice for Labour members.

But will Keir Starmer see it that way?

Continue Reading

Politics

Twenty warnings for Sir Keir Starmer from new deputy leader Lucy Powell

Published

on

By

Twenty warnings for Sir Keir Starmer from new deputy leader Lucy Powell

Labour’s new deputy leader Lucy Powell promised to be Sir Keir Starmer’s ally.

Yet in her victory speech she criticised his government and its record no fewer than 20 times. And told him to raise his game, or else.

Politics live: Follow for updates as Labour names new deputy leader

Here’s what she said – and what she meant:

  1. “Division and hate are on the rise. Discontent and disillusionment widespread.” What she meant: The Labour government has been a huge disappointment.
  2. “The desire for change is impatient and palpable.” What she meant: You’ve had 16 months to deliver change – voters are saying, “Get on with it”.
  3. “We have to offer hope, to offer the big change the country’s crying out for.” What she meant: Stop tinkering. Get more radical. You’ve got a huge Commons majority, after all.
  4. “We must give a stronger sense of purpose, whose side we’re on and of our Labour values and beliefs.” What she meant: We’re not doing enough for working people or tackling inequality.
  5. “People feel that this government is not being bold enough in delivering the kind of change we promised.” What she meant: Our voters are deserting us because they don’t see change.
  6. “I’ll be a champion for all Labour values and boldness in everything we do.” What she meant: Watch out! I’m going to hound you and hold your feet to the fire!
  7. “We won’t win by trying to out-Reform Reform, but by building a broad progressive consensus.” What she meant: Stop the lurch to the Right on immigration. We’re better than that.
  8. “It starts with wrestling back the political megaphone and setting the agenda more strongly.” What she meant: We need to sharpen up our communication and selling our message.
  9. “We’ve let Farage and his ilk run away with it.” What she meant: The Reform UK leader is running rings round us in communicating and campaigning. We’re too sluggish and flat-footed.
  10. “For too long the country and the economy has worked in the interests of the few and not the many.” What she meant: Winter fuel payment cuts were a disaster and the two-child benefit cap has to go.
  11. “Trickle down economics hasn’t worked.” What she meant: No more tax cuts for the rich. It’s time for a wealth tax, for example, to redistribute wealth.
  12. “Life has just got harder and harder, less and less secure in work, in housing, in making ends meet.” What she meant: We’re failing to tackle the cost of living crisis and housing shortages.
  13. “The deep-seated inequalities that have widened in wealth in regions in class in health need fundamentally redressing.” What she meant: We’re failing to look after our “red wall” voters.
  14. “Re-unite our voter coalition and re-unite the country.” What she meant: Start governing for everyone, urban and rural, rich and poor, North and South. Stop neglecting poorer regions.
  15. “We need to step up.” What she meant: For goodness sake, sort out the chaos in 10 Downing. Stop blaming aides and civil servants and sacking them. Get a grip!
  16. Members and affiliates “don’t feel part of the conversation or party of the movement right now. And we have to change that.” What she meant: Stop ignoring and alienating activists, MPs and unions.
  17. “Unity and loyalty comes from collective purpose, not from command and control.” What she meant: Stop the control freakery in parliament and party management. It’ll backfire.
  18. “Debating, listening and hearing is not dissent. It’s all strength.” What she meant: Listen to your backbenchers and stop suspending them when they vote against policies like welfare cuts.
  19. “As your deputy, my commitment is to change the culture.” What she meant: I’m going to stand up for rebels and critics and force you to ditch the control freakery and bad decisions.
  20. “At the election 16 months ago the British people voted for change. I’m here to do everything I can to make that change a reality.” What she meant: Raise your game, or else!

Read more from Sky News:
The one thing Farage and Polanski have in common
China ‘enemy’ reference removed from witness statement

She said it all with a smile, but there was menace there.

As deputy leader, Lucy Powell was always going to be a critical friend. So there you go, prime minister. Here’s 20 things you need to do for her to be more friend than critic.

Continue Reading

Trending