General election campaign midpoint: Lonely Sunak fights battle on three fronts

Published

9 months ago

June 15, 2024

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This week the leaders were selling their visions to voters as they launched their manifestos, and Sunak and Starmer went head to head in Grimbsy at the Sky News live election special The Battle For Number 10.

Watch their journeys in the latest week in our animated map below.

This campaign is being fought on new electoral boundaries, with many constituencies undergoing significant changes since 2019.

For the purposes of this analysis, we use notional results based on calculations by Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher, Honorary Professors at the University of Exeter, which estimate the 2019 election seat results if they had taken place on the new constituency boundaries.

Manifesto week

We’re now more than halfway through the general election campaign and voting will soon be under way as postal ballots start to arrive through letterboxes.

In the final pushes to persuade the electorate, this week the parties have been releasing their manifestos.

The choices they’ve made about where to launch them reveal a narrative of safety.

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The prime minister chose Northamptonshire South in the East Midlands to launch the Conservative manifesto, where they have a 42.4% majority.

This is Andrea Leadsom’s old seat, one of the safer Conservative constituencies in that region. Boundaries have changed over time, but none of its predecessors have been Labour.

But it’s starting to look like there are no safe Tory seats. Recent Sky News/YouGov MRP polling suggests they could lose it, placing this seat as a “toss-up” Conservative hold, i.e. too close to call. If Labour won here, the required swing of 21.2 means they’d be well into decisive majority territory.

On Thursday Sir Keir Starmer chose Manchester Central as the launching pad for Labour’s manifesto. This is Lucy Powell’s seat and her majority is 44.4%.

This is home turf, and a rare venture into Labour heartlands for Starmer, who so far has only visited seats his party already hold three times in his 23 constituency tally – a safe choice for a safety first manifesto.

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Both location choices are key areas of support for the main parties. The Greens did the same in choosing to launch in Hove, the home of their first and only seat in the House of Commons, Brighton Pavilion.

Sir Ed Davey, who has been keeping everyone guessing throughout his campaign, made the curious choice of Hackney South & Shoreditch, a seat that has been Labour since its creation, represented by chair of The Public Accounts Committee Meg Hillier since 2005.

But he was soon back on the attack in Tory territory, following up with a visit to ride a rollercoaster at Thorpe Park in Surrey.

Where are the troops?

The prime minister has cut a lone figure on the campaign trail, rarely seen with senior members of his party or indeed visiting their seats.

As Sky News revealed earlier this week, his image and Conservative Party branding have often been absent on much of their campaign material. One man who did make an appearance on Andrea Jenkyns’ leaflets for Leeds South West was Reform leader Nigel Farage, and that’s indicative of Sunak’s problem.

In the first two weeks he was fighting on two fronts, but now it seems the new Reform leader has just opened a third. Sunak’s woeful week ended with a YouGov poll suggesting his party could have now even dropped into third place.

So which cabinet ministers in trouble have had a visit from Sunak to boost their chances?

This week, none of them, and since the start of the campaign, just two of them.

Those were Work an Pensions Secretary Mel Stride’s Devon Central in the first week of campaigning, and Michelle Donelan, Science, Innovation and Technology Secretary in Melksham & Devizes in the second week.

He has visited four other ministerial seats, all of which polling has suggested could be at risk. Those were Justin Tomlinson in Swindon North, Jacob Young in Redcar, David Johnston in Didcot & Wantage, and David Rutley in Macclesfield.

So far no visit from the PM to the likes of Penny Mordaunt, Johnny Mercer and Grant Shapps, all of whom are said to be in a close fight for their parliamentary careers.

Sir Keir Starmer has also spent little time in shadow cabinet constituencies, instead taking many of them on the road with him to seats he’s targeting from the Tories.

Some have also been deployed in key areas where they’re popular, like deputy Labour leader Angela Rayner who has been spending time in the north of England seats that Labour lost to the Conservatives in recent elections. She’s also been hitting “true blue” northern areas like Macclesfield and Altrincham & Sale West, which have never been represented by a Labour MP.

Battle is in the areas that take Labour to a large majority

At Sky’s event on Wednesday, Starmer let slip that he’s expecting to be in government.

A national uniform swing of 8.3 points from the Conservatives would make Labour the largest party, one of 12.7 would deliver them a majority. If Labour uses its vote more efficiently than in the past and gains extra seats in Scotland then it reduces the overall swing required.

So far, Starmer has visited nine target constituencies which require swings of less 8.3 points vs 11 which require a greater vote swing. One of those which he visited this this week was Redcar, where Sunak went last week.

Labour’s candidate Anna Turley is trying to win it back after losing to the Conservatives in 2019. Last week we outlined its importance for each party’s campaign.

He has only visited five places where the swing required is more than 12.7, such as Nuneaton, a Brexit voting constituency in the West Midlands held by Labour in the early Blair years but Conservative since Cameron. The required swing to gain for Labour is 14.5 points.

Twenty-one of the 34 seats that Sunak has visited are Con-Lab battles that he defends. Seven have swings of less than 8.3 for it to be a Labour gain, while eight require swings bigger than 12.7.

Then there is the final front on which Sunak is defending: against the Lib Dems. Sunak has been to 11 seats where he’s fighting them off, such as Horsham in West Sussex this week where the Lib Dems need a swing of 15.5.

All bar two of Davey’s 27 visits have been to targets the Tories defend, where the average swing needed is 22.4 points.

Dr Hannah Bunting is a Sky News elections analyst and Co-director of The Elections Centre at the University of Exeter.

The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

Politics

Crypto whale liquidated for $308M in leveraged Ether trade

Published

3 hours ago

March 12, 2025

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Crypto whale liquidated for 8M in leveraged Ether trade

A large cryptocurrency trader, known as a whale, lost more than $308 million on a leveraged Ether position, underscoring the risks of leveraged trading during volatile market conditions.

The unknown crypto trader was liquidated on their 50x leveraged long position for over 160,234 Ether (ETH), worth more than $308 million at the time of writing, Hypurrscan data shows.

Leveraged positions use borrowed money to increase the size of an investment, which can boost the size of both gains and losses, making leveraged trading riskier compared to regular investment positions.

Crypto whale liquidated for $308M in leveraged Ether trade — *The crypto trader’s address showing transactions. Source: Hypurrscan*

The crypto whale opened the initial 50x leveraged position when ETH traded at $1,900, with a liquidation price of $1,877.

According to onchain intelligence firm Lookonchain, the whale had rotated all of his Bitcoin (BTC) holdings into the leveraged Ether trade before suffering the liquidation.

The liquidation came during a period of heightened volatility, as both crypto and traditional markets are limited by global trade war concerns due to the latest retaliatory tariffs from the European Union.

Ether risks correction to $1,800 amid tariff fears, ETF outflows

Ether’s price has fallen by more than 53% since it began its downtrend on Dec. 16, 2024, after it had peaked above $4,100.

Cryptocurrencies, Law, Investments, Markets, Ethereum 2.0, Ether Price, Ethereum Price, Ethereum ETF — *ETH/USD, 1-day chart, downtrend. Source: Cointelegraph/ TradingView*

The main reasons behind Ether’s downtrend are the ongoing macroeconomic concerns and lack of builder activity on the Ethereum network, according to Bitfinex analysts.

“A lack of new projects or builders moving to ETH, primarily due to high operating fees, is likely the principal reason behind the lackluster performance of ETH. […] We believe that for ETH, $1,800 will be a strong level to watch,” the analysts told Cointelegraph.

“However, the current sell-off is not being seen solely in ETH, we have seen a marketwide correction as fears over the impact of tariffs hit all risk assets,” they added.

The US spot Ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are also limiting Ether’s upside.

US spot Ether ETFs have entered a fourth consecutive week of net negative outflows, after seeing over $119 million worth of cumulative outflows during the previous week, Sosovalue data shows.

Magazine: Ethereum L2s will be interoperable ‘within months’: Complete guide

Politics

America must back pro-stablecoin laws, reject CBDCs — US Rep. Emmer

Published

5 hours ago

March 12, 2025

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America must back pro-stablecoin laws, reject CBDCs — US Rep. Emmer

US Representative Tom Emmer argued for prioritizing pro-stablecoin legislation in a March 11 House Financial Services Committee hearing, while calling central bank digital currencies (CBDC) a threat to American values.

On March 6, Emmer reintroduced the CBDC Anti-Surveillance State Act in the House of Representatives. Emmer renewed his call for Congress to pass the legislation at the March 11 hearing. The legislation aims to block future administrations from launching a US CBDC without explicit approval from Congress.

“CBDC technology is inherently un-American,” Emmer said at the hearing, warning that allowing unelected bureaucrats to issue a CBDC “could upend the American way of life.”

On Jan. 23, President Donald Trump signed an executive order prohibiting “the establishment, issuance, circulation, and use” of a CBDC in the US. Emmer said that the legislation he reintroduced could “prevent a future administration from creating such an obvious tool for financial surveillance against its own citizens” if signed into law, citing concerns about privacy and financial independence.

At the same hearing, Paxos CEO Charles Cascarilla urged lawmakers to create consistent stablecoin regulations across jurisdictions to avoid regulatory arbitrage. Paxos, a significant issuer of stablecoins, recommended clear guidelines and reciprocal rules with global regulators:

“We want to make sure we have the same set of rules in the US as we have around the world so that there isn’t some arbitrage that is possible to issue from another jurisdiction. And by having that same set of rules that everyone has to meet in order to access the US market, it will actually create a race to the top, not a race to the bottom.”

Emmer, a Minnesota Republican, also criticized inherent privacy risks associated with CBDCs, saying that stablecoins could bring traditional finance onchain at a global scale while reserving privacy:

“This underscores why we must prioritize pro-stablecoin legislation alongside anti-CBDC legislation.”

Against the backdrop of rapid pro-crypto developments, a report by the Center for Political Accountability (CPA) raised concerns about the growing political influence of crypto companies in the US and potential risks to regulatory stability.

Cryptocurrency firms shelled out a cumulative $134 million on the 2024 US elections in “unchecked political spending,” which presents some critical challenges, the March 7 report said.

Magazine: Mystery celeb memecoin scam factory, HK firm dumps Bitcoin: Asia Express

Politics

Nigeria’s crypto future: Striking a balance between innovation and regulation

Published

5 hours ago

March 12, 2025

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Nigeria’s crypto future: Striking a balance between innovation and regulation

Opinion by: Mohammed Idris, Minister of Information of Nigeria

Nigeria has emerged as one of the most active and dynamic crypto markets in recent years. From bustling tech hubs in Lagos to grassroots communities in smaller cities, young Nigerians have turned to cryptocurrencies to address fundamental economic challenges, from hedging against inflation to accessing global markets in a way traditional finance often does not allow.

As minister of information, I have seen firsthand how digital innovation has become crucial to the Nigerian story. Cryptocurrencies, blockchain technology and other digital assets are no longer on the fringes of our economy; they are fast becoming central to how our people transact, create and build.

This rise in crypto adoption has not, however, come without challenges. Questions around regulation, consumer protection, security and misuse of digital assets have fueled debates in Nigeria and globally. I write to clarify Nigeria’s position: We are committed to fostering an inclusive digital asset ecosystem that is both innovative and responsible.

Nigeria is a crypto hub

According to several international reports, Nigeria consistently ranks among the top countries in terms of crypto adoption. Our population — over 200 million strong, with a median age under 20 — is naturally inclined toward new technologies. Crypto has become more than a speculative tool; it’s a lifeline for freelancers, small businesses and families receiving remittances.

Yet despite the widespread use of cryptocurrencies, Nigeria has wrestled with how to regulate this sector effectively. Earlier approaches included restrictions on financial institutions from facilitating crypto transactions, which inadvertently pushed much of the activity underground, away from proper oversight.

Nigeria moves toward robust regulation

Under the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Nigeria is reassessing its approach. We are moving away from blanket restrictions toward thoughtful, balanced regulation that acknowledges both the risks and the transformative potential of crypto and blockchain technologies.

Our objective is to create a regulatory framework that fosters innovation, ensures market integrity and protects Nigerian consumers. This involves active engagement with stakeholders from crypto startups and blockchain developers to international partners and regulatory bodies.

Recent: Nigeria to tax cryptocurrency transactions for revenue boost

Nigeria’s stance is simple. We support innovation that benefits our people, but we will not allow misuse that harms them.

We recognize the legitimate use cases for cryptocurrencies, including:

Financial inclusion for the unbanked and underbanked.
Cross-border payments and remittances that avoid high fees.
Access to global markets for Nigerian entrepreneurs and freelancers.
New digital economies, such as decentralized finance (DeFi) and non-fungible tokens (NFTs), offer opportunities for wealth creation.

At the same time, we are determined to address concerns around fraud, money laundering, terrorism financing and other illicit activities. Effective regulation, rather than prohibition, is the path forward.

Nigeria and blockchain

Nigeria sees blockchain technology as more than just crypto trading. Blockchain can be a powerful governance, transparency and service delivery tool.

Already, conversations are underway on how blockchain can improve public systems, such as:

Land registries to reduce fraud and strengthen property rights.
Identity management systems to enhance financial inclusion.
Supply chain monitoring to improve food security and public procurement.

A collaborative approach

Nigeria is not navigating this journey alone. As we develop new policies and frameworks, we look to global best practices and seek collaboration with international platforms and regulators.

We invite crypto companies, investors, innovators and advocates to engage with us. We aim to create a transparent and predictable environment where businesses can thrive while ensuring Nigerian citizens are protected from undue risks.

Nigeria’s approach to crypto is evolving, and with good reason. The potential for digital assets and blockchain to contribute to economic growth, job creation and financial empowerment is too significant to ignore.

To realize these benefits, we must build trust in the system through effective regulation, education and international cooperation.

To the global crypto community, I say this: Nigeria is open to innovation, but we are equally committed to ensuring that such innovation operates within a secure, transparent and inclusive framework.

We look forward to working together — for the benefit of Nigerians and the global advancement of responsible crypto adoption.

Opinion by: Mohammed Idris, Minister of Information of Nigeria.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.