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This week the leaders were selling their visions to voters as they launched their manifestos, and Sunak and Starmer went head to head in Grimbsy at the Sky News live election special The Battle For Number 10.

Watch their journeys in the latest week in our animated map below.

This campaign is being fought on new electoral boundaries, with many constituencies undergoing significant changes since 2019.

For the purposes of this analysis, we use notional results based on calculations by Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher, Honorary Professors at the University of Exeter, which estimate the 2019 election seat results if they had taken place on the new constituency boundaries.

Manifesto week

We’re now more than halfway through the general election campaign and voting will soon be under way as postal ballots start to arrive through letterboxes.

In the final pushes to persuade the electorate, this week the parties have been releasing their manifestos.

The choices they’ve made about where to launch them reveal a narrative of safety.

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The prime minister chose Northamptonshire South in the East Midlands to launch the Conservative manifesto, where they have a 42.4% majority.

This is Andrea Leadsom’s old seat, one of the safer Conservative constituencies in that region. Boundaries have changed over time, but none of its predecessors have been Labour.

But it’s starting to look like there are no safe Tory seats. Recent Sky News/YouGov MRP polling suggests they could lose it, placing this seat as a “toss-up” Conservative hold, i.e. too close to call. If Labour won here, the required swing of 21.2 means they’d be well into decisive majority territory.

On Thursday Sir Keir Starmer chose Manchester Central as the launching pad for Labour’s manifesto. This is Lucy Powell’s seat and her majority is 44.4%.

This is home turf, and a rare venture into Labour heartlands for Starmer, who so far has only visited seats his party already hold three times in his 23 constituency tally – a safe choice for a safety first manifesto.

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Both location choices are key areas of support for the main parties. The Greens did the same in choosing to launch in Hove, the home of their first and only seat in the House of Commons, Brighton Pavilion.

Sir Ed Davey, who has been keeping everyone guessing throughout his campaign, made the curious choice of Hackney South & Shoreditch, a seat that has been Labour since its creation, represented by chair of The Public Accounts Committee Meg Hillier since 2005.

But he was soon back on the attack in Tory territory, following up with a visit to ride a rollercoaster at Thorpe Park in Surrey.

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Ultimate guide to the election

Where are the troops?

The prime minister has cut a lone figure on the campaign trail, rarely seen with senior members of his party or indeed visiting their seats.

As Sky News revealed earlier this week, his image and Conservative Party branding have often been absent on much of their campaign material. One man who did make an appearance on Andrea Jenkyns’ leaflets for Leeds South West was Reform leader Nigel Farage, and that’s indicative of Sunak’s problem.

In the first two weeks he was fighting on two fronts, but now it seems the new Reform leader has just opened a third. Sunak’s woeful week ended with a YouGov poll suggesting his party could have now even dropped into third place.

So which cabinet ministers in trouble have had a visit from Sunak to boost their chances?

This week, none of them, and since the start of the campaign, just two of them.

Those were Work an Pensions Secretary Mel Stride’s Devon Central in the first week of campaigning, and Michelle Donelan, Science, Innovation and Technology Secretary in Melksham & Devizes in the second week.

He has visited four other ministerial seats, all of which polling has suggested could be at risk. Those were Justin Tomlinson in Swindon North, Jacob Young in Redcar, David Johnston in Didcot & Wantage, and David Rutley in Macclesfield.

So far no visit from the PM to the likes of Penny Mordaunt, Johnny Mercer and Grant Shapps, all of whom are said to be in a close fight for their parliamentary careers.

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Highlights from Sky’s leaders’ event

Sir Keir Starmer has also spent little time in shadow cabinet constituencies, instead taking many of them on the road with him to seats he’s targeting from the Tories.

Some have also been deployed in key areas where they’re popular, like deputy Labour leader Angela Rayner who has been spending time in the north of England seats that Labour lost to the Conservatives in recent elections. She’s also been hitting “true blue” northern areas like Macclesfield and Altrincham & Sale West, which have never been represented by a Labour MP.

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Battle is in the areas that take Labour to a large majority

At Sky’s event on Wednesday, Starmer let slip that he’s expecting to be in government.

A national uniform swing of 8.3 points from the Conservatives would make Labour the largest party, one of 12.7 would deliver them a majority. If Labour uses its vote more efficiently than in the past and gains extra seats in Scotland then it reduces the overall swing required.

So far, Starmer has visited nine target constituencies which require swings of less 8.3 points vs 11 which require a greater vote swing. One of those which he visited this this week was Redcar, where Sunak went last week.

Labour’s candidate Anna Turley is trying to win it back after losing to the Conservatives in 2019. Last week we outlined its importance for each party’s campaign.

He has only visited five places where the swing required is more than 12.7, such as Nuneaton, a Brexit voting constituency in the West Midlands held by Labour in the early Blair years but Conservative since Cameron. The required swing to gain for Labour is 14.5 points.

Twenty-one of the 34 seats that Sunak has visited are Con-Lab battles that he defends. Seven have swings of less than 8.3 for it to be a Labour gain, while eight require swings bigger than 12.7.

Then there is the final front on which Sunak is defending: against the Lib Dems. Sunak has been to 11 seats where he’s fighting them off, such as Horsham in West Sussex this week where the Lib Dems need a swing of 15.5.

All bar two of Davey’s 27 visits have been to targets the Tories defend, where the average swing needed is 22.4 points.


Dr Hannah Bunting is a Sky News elections analyst and Co-director of The Elections Centre at the University of Exeter.


The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

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Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood threatens Trump-style visa ban on three countries as part of radical asylum reforms

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Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood threatens Trump-style visa ban on three countries as part of radical asylum reforms

Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood plans to impose Trump-style visa bans on three African countries if they fail to take back illegal migrants as part of “sweeping reforms” of the UK’s immigration system.

Angola, Namibia and the Democratic Republic of Congo will face visa sanctions, blocking their tourists, VIPs and business people from travelling to Britain if they do not improve co-operation on removals.

Ms Mahmood said: “In Britain, we play by the rules. When I said there would be penalties for countries that do not take back criminals and illegal immigrants, I meant it.

“My message to foreign governments today is clear: accept the return of your citizens or lose the privilege of entering our country.”

The move was reportedly inspired by President Trump’s homeland security secretary, Kristi Noem, who has overseen the mass deportation policy in the US, according to The Times.

Ms Mahmood will address the House of Commons today to lay out “the most sweeping reforms to tackle illegal migration in modern times”, effectively since the Second World War.

Modelled on the Danish system, the aim is to make the UK less attractive for illegal immigrants and make it easier to deport them.

More on Migrant Crisis

Under the plans, the home secretary will bring forward a bill to change how article 8 of the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR), the right to family life, is applied in migration court cases.

The Home Office has said it’s seen a rise in the use of rights-based appeals in recent years as a means of avoiding deportation.

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‘Illegal migration is creating division across UK’ – Shabana Mahmood

The changes would see only those with immediate family in the UK, such as a parent or child, being able to use article 8 in future.

The home secretary, who has been in the job for 73 days, also plans to change the law so that multiple attempts to appeal against refusals for asylum will no longer be allowed.

Furthermore, refugees would face a 20-year wait before they can apply for permanent settlement.

The Home Office said the “golden ticket” deal has seen asylum claims surge in the UK, drawing people across Europe, through safe countries, on to dangerous small boats.

Under the proposals, refugee status would become temporary and subject to regular review, with refugees removed once their home countries are deemed safe.

Housing and weekly allowances would also no longer be guaranteed.

Mahmood is new hard woman of British politics – and potential successor to Starmer


Amanda Akass

Amanda Akass

Political correspondent

@amandaakass

We’re told that Shabana Mahmood, the still new home secretary, is “a woman in a hurry”.

She’s been in the job for 73 days – and is now announcing “the most sweeping reforms to tackle illegal migration in modern times” – effectively since the Second World War.

Her language is not just tough – it’s radical. Not what you’d have expected to hear from a Labour home secretary even just a few months ago.

“Illegal migration”, she believes, “is tearing our country apart. The crisis at our borders is out of control”.

Her team argues that those never-ending images of people crossing the Channel in small boats have led to a complete loss of faith in the government’s ability to take any action at all – let alone deliver on its promises.

The political reality is that successive failures of Tory and Labour ministers have fuelled the inexorable rise of Reform.

Read more

The shake-up also envisages the introduction of safe and legal routes to the UK in a bid to cut dangerous journeys across the Channel.

A new independent body – similar to one in Denmark – is planned to fast-track the removal of dangerous criminals, and last-minute appeals would be expedited.

Ms Mahmood has denied that her plans are “racist”, instead describing them as a “moral mission”.

She said illegal immigration was causing “huge divides” in the UK, adding: “I do believe we need to act if we are to retain public consent for having an asylum system at all.”

What measures is the home secretary set to announce?

  • Refugee status will become temporary and subject to regular review – with people facing removal as soon as their home countries are deemed safe
  • Asylum seekers will face a 20-year wait before they can apply for permanent settlement
  • New safe and legal routes to be introduced for those genuinely fleeing war and persecution
  • Changes to the legal framework that will require judges to prioritise public safety over migrants’ rights to a family life – amid fears that Article 8 of the European Convention on Human Rights has been used to frustrate removals
  • Using facial age estimation technology, a form of AI ,to rapidly assess a person’s age in a bid to deter people who pretend to be children in an attempt to claim asylum
  • Capped work and study routes for refugees will also be created  

Read more:
Shabana Mahmood is the new hard woman of British politics
Here’s how the Danish migration model works

Speaking on Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips, Ms Mahmood said she had observed how illegal migration had been “creating division across our country”.

She added: “I can see that it is polarising communities across the country. I can see that it is dividing people and making them estranged from one another. I don’t want to stand back and watch that happen in my country.”

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Govt ‘lacks empathy and understanding’ for refugees

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said: “Britain has always been a fair, tolerant and compassionate country – and this government will always defend those values.

“But in a more volatile world, people need to know our borders are secure and rules are enforced. These reforms will block endless appeals, stop last-minute claims and scale up removals of those with no right to be here.”

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Anti-asylum seeker protest in East Sussex

Conservative Party leader Kemi Badenoch welcomed Ms Mahmood “finally talking seriously about tackling illegal immigration”, but called the plans “weak”.

She said: “If the home secretary actually wants to cut illegal immigration, she should take up my offer to sit down with her and work on a plan that will actually stop the boats, rather than a few weak changes that will meet the approval of Labour MPs.”

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‘Mahmood’s own MPs calling her racist’ – Zia Yusuf

Speaking earlier on Sunday, Reform UK leader Nigel Farage said: “The home secretary sounds like a Reform supporter.”

“Sadly with the Human Rights Act and ECHR membership, the changes won’t survive the courts or probably even her own backbenchers,” he added.

The Refugee Council warned that the government would accrue a cost of £872m over 10 years as a result of the need to review asylum seekers’ status to remain in the UK.

Enver Solomon, the charity’s chief executive, insisted the changes “will not deter people from making dangerous crossings, but they will unfairly prevent men, women and children from integrating into British life”.

Latest Home Office figures show 39,075 people have arrived in the UK after crossing the English Channel in small boats so far this year.

The arrivals have already passed the number for the whole of 2024 (36,816) and 2023 (29,437), but the number is below the total for 2022 (45,774).

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Shabana Mahmood is the new hard woman of British politics – and potential successor to Starmer

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Shabana Mahmood is the new hard woman of British politics - and potential successor to Starmer

We’re told that Shabana Mahmood, the still new home secretary, is “a woman in a hurry”.

She’s been in the job for 73 days – and is now announcing “the most sweeping reforms to tackle illegal migration in modern times” – effectively since the Second World War.

Politics latest: Mahmood dismisses ‘tittle-tattle’ over leadership rumours

Her language is not just tough – it’s radical. Not what you’d have expected to hear from a Labour home secretary even just a few months ago.

“Illegal migration”, she believes, “is tearing our country apart. The crisis at our borders is out of control”.

Her team argues that those never-ending images of people crossing the Channel in small boats have led to a complete loss of faith in the government’s ability to take any action at all – let alone deliver on its promises.

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‘Illegal migration is creating division across our country’.

The political reality is that successive failures of Tory and Labour ministers have fuelled the inexorable rise of Reform.

More on Migrant Crisis

But speaking to Sir Trevor Phillips on Sky News, Ms Mahmood firmly hit back at suggestions today’s announcements are pandering to a racist narrative from the far right.

“It’s not right-wing talking points or fake news or misinformation that is suggesting that we’ve got a problem,” she said.

“I know, because I have now seen this system inside out. It is a broken system. We have a genuine problem to fix. People are angry about something that is real.

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Trevor’s takeaway

“It is my job, therefore, to think of a proper solution to this very real problem, to do so in line with my values as a Labour politician, but also as a British citizen, and to have solutions that work so that I can unite a divided country.”

There are many striking elements to this.

While she’s not been in the job for all that long, her government has been in power for 16 months. Her own press release highlights that over the past full calendar year asylum claims here have gone up by 18% – compared with a drop of 13% elsewhere in the EU.

The UK, she argues, has become a “golden ticket” for asylum seekers due to “far more generous terms” than other countries in Europe.

While she politely insists that her predecessor’s policies – the one in one out deal with France, closer partnership with law enforcement across Europe – are beginning to take effect, the message is clear. No one in office before Shabana has had the stomach to grasp the nettle.

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Inside Europe’s people smuggling industry

The Home Office is determined to present their boss as the new hard woman of British politics.

In a bleak warning to those in her party who will be deeply uncomfortable with this unflinching approach, we’re told she believes this is “the last chance for decent, moderate politics”.

“If these moderate forces fail, something darker will follow…. if you don’t like this, you won’t like what follows me.”

That’s a clear reference to the anti-asylum policies of Reform and the Conservatives, who are pledging to leave the European Convention on Human Rights and deport all illegal arrivals.

Both parties have responded by effectively claiming they don’t trust Labour to deliver on this, given they believe the government has lost control of our borders and overseen a surge in asylum claims.

That much Ms Mahmood herself has already acknowledged.

It’s unusual to hear a Conservative shadow minister like Chris Philp responding to a government announcement by claiming they will support the “sensible steps” the Home Office is making.

Unsurprisingly, he went on to belittle her ideas as “very small steps” combined with “gimmicks” – but the main thrust of his critique was that Labour lacks the authority to push these kinds of measures through parliament, given the likely opposition from their own left wingers.

It’s a fair point – but the lack of fundamental disagreement highlights the threat these plans pose to her opponents.

If the government looks like it might actually succeed in bringing down the numbers – and of course that’s a colossal if – Ms Mahmood will effectively have outflanked and neutralised much of the threat from both the Tories and Reform.

That’s why she’s so keen to mention her Danish inspiration – a centre-left government which managed to see off the threat from right-wing parties through its tough approach to migration, without having to leave the ECHR.

Read more:
Migrants shopping for life jackets: Inside the route to the Channel
Here’s how the Danish migration model works

The Home Office is planning further announcements on new safe and legal routes.

But refugee charities have described the new measures as harsh, claiming they will scapegoat genuine refugees, fail to integrate them into society, and fail to function as a deterrent either.

There will surely be an almighty internal row among Labour MPs about the principle of ripping up the post-war settlement for refugees.

For a government floundering after the political chaos of the last few weeks and months, Ms Mahmood is a voice of certainty and confidence.

At a moment of such intense backroom debate over the party’s future direction, it’s hard to avoid seeing her performance this weekend as a starting pitch for the leadership.

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Bitcoin briefly erases 2025 gains as crypto bleeds over weekend

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Bitcoin briefly erases 2025 gains as crypto bleeds over weekend

Bitcoin briefly lost all of its gains this year after the crypto markets bled over the weekend, despite the US government reopening on Thursday, which was expected to provide much-needed relief to the markets.

Bitcoin (BTC) fell to a low of $93,029 on Sunday, down 25% from its all-time high in October. It started the year at $93,507.

It has since rebounded to around $94,209, CoinGecko data shows.

Investments, US Government, Donald Trump, Bitcoin ETF
Bitcoin’s price information, including the change in price since Jan. 1, 2025. Source: CoinGecko

This year was tipped to be a strong one for the crypto markets after US President Donald Trump was inaugurated on Jan. 20 and formed the most pro-crypto administration to date, which has followed through on most of his promises.

Regulatory momentum under the Trump administration has been accompanied by an explosion in corporate Bitcoin treasury adoption and more inflows into the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds.