Tories heading for ‘warfare’, Farage predicts, as ex-Cabinet minister pleads with voters to ‘unite the right’
Nigel Farage has predicted the Tories will soon descend into “warfare” as a former Conservative minister warned voters about a “Labour elective dictatorship” if they voted for Reform.
The Reform UK leader told The Sunday Telegraph that divisions in the party were only going to “get worse” in the run-up to polling day on 4 July.
Mr Farage was speaking as three polls this week painted a bleak picture for Mr Sunak – and a sunny one for his party.
A poll by Savanta for The Sunday Telegraph showed the Tories down four points to just 21% of the vote – the lowest by that pollster since the dying days of Theresa May’s premiership in early 2019.
In a boost for Mr Farage, the poll showed Reform UK up three points with 13% of the vote.
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A separate Survation poll for Best for Britain, published by The Sunday Times, predicted the Tories would win just 72 seats in the next parliament, compared with 456 for Labour.
The result would give Labour a majority of 262 seats – far surpassing the landslide Labour achieved by Tony Blair in 1997 – while the Liberal Democrats would pick up 56 seats, Reform seven and the Greens one seat.
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Earlier in the week, a YouGov poll put Reform ahead of the Tories for the first time – on 19% of the vote, compared with 18% for the Conservatives.
Mr Farage, who is set to launch Reform’s manifesto on Monday, told the Sunday Telegraph that “within a week, you watch… there’ll be warfare within the Conservative Party as there was in the run-up to ’97,” referring to the election when Labour last won a landslide under Mr Blair.
He likened the current divisions in the Conservative Party – chiefly over migration – to splits under former Tory prime minister John Major over joining the Euro.
“In the run-up to ’97, John Major said that he was agnostic about joining the Euro,” he told the newspaper.
“Those who wanted to join the Euro did their own manifesto and raised their own money. It was an absolutely split, divided joke and the same will happen in this election. You watch, it’s coming.
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“You will start to see those MPs, who I agree with on most things, start becoming much more vociferous about their stance as opposed to that of the party. The splits are going to get worse. And to them, I will say: ‘Sorry guys, you are just in the wrong party’.”
It comes as former immigration minister Robert Jenrick, who is touted as a future Tory leader, gave an interview with the same newspaper saying he “shares the frustrations” of traditional Tory voters who are tempted to defect to Reform – but that they should stick with Mr Sunak’s party to avoiding handing Labour a landslide.
“I have immense sympathy for those natural Conservatives who feel let down and drawn to Reform,” he said.
Robert Jenrick says he has sympathy for those natural Conservatives who feel drawn to Reform
“Not only do I understand their frustrations, I share many of them.
“The tax burden is too high, the criminal justice system too soft and public services too inefficient. My disagreements with the government on immigration policy meant I resigned from cabinet.”
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He added: “But, ultimately, a vote for Reform will only give Labour a blank cheque to take our country back to the 1970s.
“Voting Reform cannot be the answer. It can only bring about a government that increases taxes and immigration. Their success can only weaken the conservative movement. The right cannot unify after the election if there is no meaningful force in parliament to coalesce around.
“Our task is to make conservatives across Britain aware of this peril. If we can do that, and make the case that only a vote for the Conservative Party can prevent a calamitous one-party state come 5 July, then we can avert disaster.”
An investigation has been launched into a former Reform MP over alleged racial abuse against a Sky News journalist.
The parliamentary standards commissioner is investigating James McMurdock, who was elected as a Reform MP last year but suspended himself after allegations emerged over loans he claimed during the pandemic.
Ben Obese-Jecty, the Conservative MP, wrote to the watchdog in August to urge an investigation into Mr McMurdock’s “use of social media to apparently facilitate racial abuse” against Sky News political correspondent Mhari Aurora.
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The standards commissioner has now confirmed it will consider allegations that Mr McMurdock started an “N-Tower” on social media by posting the single letter “N” under an X post that was critical of Aurora.
This was described by Mr Obese-Jecty as “a means of using a racial slur against an individual on an online platform whilst circumventing moderation that would remove racially abusive content”.
He added: “The practice involves spelling out a racial slur vertically with each individual posting a single letter of the word in order to spell it vertically” as the posts appear below each other.
Mr McMurdock is under investigation for potentially breaching rule 11 of the House of Commons Code of Conduct.
This states: “Members shall never undertake any action which would cause significant damage to the reputation and integrity of the House of Commons as a whole, or of its Members generally.”
Ben Obese-Jecty. Pic: Parliament
Mr Obese-Jecty said in his complaint that the alleged actions of the former Reform MP “reflect a lack of adherence” to the seven principles of public life.
He said by “deleting the post without challenging the subsequent spelling” that was started by him, Mr McMurdock showed a “failure to challenge poor behaviour” and “absence of moral courage”.
Mr Obese-Jecty added: “Having repeatedly experienced this specific type of online racial abuse myself I am horrified that a fellow member of parliament would apparently see this as a legitimate means of challenging a Westminster lobby journalist in a public forum.
“I sincerely hope that there is a coherent and believable explanation for this horrendous action.”
At the time, Mr McMurdock appeared to deny he made the post, sharing a screenshot of X’s AI assistant Grok claiming he never posted the letter N, based on a screenshot of the N-Tower.
Grok is a large language model, which is known to be inaccurate.
He added that Mr Obese-Jecty’s “complaint regarding the alleged posting of a single letter is beyond ridiculous”.
Mr McMurdock has been contacted for comment.
Another former Conservative MP has defected to Reform UK.
Maria Caulfield, who served as the MP for Lewes for nearly a decade, as well as a government minister, is the 13th ex-Tory to join Nigel Farage’s party, which continues to gather momentum.
The announcement of her move on Tuesday follows sitting MP Danny Kruger’s decision to defect yesterday and head up Reform’s work to prepare for government.
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Ms Caulfield, a former health minister, told GB News: “If you are Conservative right-minded, then the future is Reform. The country is going to change a lot.
“The same people who thought that Brexit would not happen think that Reform will not happen. They are in for a shock.”
She added: “I have joined. My husband joined a few months ago and I joined a month ago.”
Reacting to the defection, Tory leader Kemi Badenoch admitted her party is having a “tough and bumpy time”, but reiterated her argument that it takes time to develop policies, and called on the public and her party to be patient.
Ms Caulfield is a former nurse, and her first ministerial job came in 2021, when she joined the Department for Health in Boris Johnson’s government.
After a spell on the backbenches during the brief premiership of Liz Truss, she was brought back into government under Rishi Sunak, becoming the minister responsible for mental health and women’s health.
She lost her seat at the 2024 general election to the Liberal Democrats, with her vote share having plummeted by nearly 22%.
‘We need to hold our nerve’
Her announcement follows that of Danny Kruger, the MP for East Wiltshire, who announced his move at a press conference alongside Nigel Farage on Monday.
He said the Conservative Party is “over”, and Reform is now the primary vehicle for conservatism.
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Sitting MP Danny Kruger defects to Reform UK.
But shadow chancellor Sir Mel Stride said his analysis was “profoundly wrong”.
He told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: “It is certainly the case that we had a devastating defeat about a year ago, that we lost that connection with the electorate, that trust with the electorate, and it is also true that it will take us time to rebuild that.”
He added: “We need to hold our nerve.”
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