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An extra 250,000 children will be hit by the two-child benefit cap next year, rising to an extra half a million by 2029, a leading thinktank has warned.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) said the number of children who will fall under the cap – which limits child benefits for the first two children in most households – will reach 670,000 by the end of the next parliament if the policy is not reformed.

The two-child benefit cap, which restricts Child Tax Credit and Universal Credit to the first two children, was brought in by the Conservative government in 2017.

Campaigners have long called for it to be abolished on the grounds it would lift thousands of children out of poverty.

It comes as a separate study from the Joseph Rowntree Foundation (JRF) found 40% of people who work in primary schools and GP surgeries have considered quitting their job because of a “shameful” level of hardship among the population.

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The JRF found the service providers were “staggering under the weight of hardship” by having to provide extra support to the nearly four million people struggling to pay for essentials including food, heating and clothing.

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The IFS said the two-child cap has helped drive up the share of children in large families who are in relative poverty from 35% in 2014-15 to 46% in 2022 – a period when poverty for families with one or two children fell.

The Labour Party has faced pressure to drop the cap – including from former prime minister Gordon Brown – but has so far refused to commit to ending it, citing the current state of the country’s finances.

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The pressure intensified further after figures on the right, including former home secretary Suella Braverman and Reform leader Nigel Farage, both called for the cap to be scrapped.

Abolishing the cap does not appear in either the Tory or Labour manifestos, with only the Green Party and Liberal Democrats making the commitment in their offers to the public.

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The IFS said removing the cost of the limit would cost the government about £3.4bn a year, equivalent to freezing fuel duties for the next parliament.

The limit currently affects two million children and more children are added each year because it applies to those born after 5 April 2017.

The IFS said when fully rolled out, the cap will affect one in five children, rising to 38% of those in the poorest fifth of households.

It said 43% of children in households with at least one person of Bangladeshi or Pakistani origin will be affected, while those who fall under it on average will lose £4,300 per year – representing 10% of their income.

IFS research economist Eduin Latimer said: “The two-child limit is one of the most significant welfare cuts since 2010 and, unlike many of those cuts, it becomes more important each year as it is rolled out to more families.”

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Mubin Haq, chief executive of the abrdn Financial Fairness Trust, which funded the research, said: “The limit has been a significant contributor to child poverty amongst large families during a period when poverty for families with one or two children fell.

“If the next government is serious about tackling child poverty, it will need to review the two-child limit.”

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Alison Garnham, the chief executive of Child Poverty Action Group, said the “biggest driver” of child poverty in the UK was the two-child limit.

“Any government serious about making things better for the next generation will have to scrap the two-child limit, and do so quickly.”

A Labour spokesperson said: “We are under no illusions about the scale of the task ahead if we win the election.

“Labour has already set out how we would make a start, with free breakfast clubs in every primary school, cutting fuel poverty and bringing down energy bills, banning exploitative zero hours contracts, making work pay, ending no-fault evictions and creating more good jobs right across the country.”

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Pressure mounts on PM to raise Israel’s Gaza offensive with Trump

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Pressure mounts on PM to raise Israel's Gaza offensive with Trump

Sir Keir Starmer is under mounting pressure to raise Israel’s bombardment of Gaza with Donald Trump during his UK state visit, after a UN Commission said a genocide was taking place.

Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey used the president’s arrival on Tuesday night to call for action on the escalating situation, as Israeli forces advance in Gaza City.

Sky News analysis has found thousands of families remain in the city’s crowded tent camps, despite a ground offensive beginning yesterday.

Sir Ed, who is boycotting the state dinner being held for Mr Trump, said Sir Keir must “press” the president now.

He said: “What is happening in Gaza is a genocide. And the president of the United States, who wants a Nobel Peace Prize, is doing nothing to stop it.”

Displaced Palestinians flee northern Gaza. Pic: AP
Image:
Displaced Palestinians flee northern Gaza. Pic: AP

On Tuesday, a United Nations Commission agreed Israel was committing genocide in Gaza – the first time such an explosive allegation has been made publicly by a UN body.

Israel‘s foreign ministry said it “categorically rejects this distorted and false report” and called for the commission to be abolished.

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Is Israel committing genocide?

‘We cannot be bystanders’

Reports suggest the situation will be a talking point between Sir Keir and Mr Trump during his visit.

It comes before the UK is due to recognise a Palestinian state at the UN General Assembly later this month, along with allies including Canada and France.

In a late night statement, Canada’s foreign ministry described the Gaza City offensive as “horrific”.

Lib Dem leader Sir Ed added: “We have long said that Hamas is genocidal and condemned them for their actions.

“Now, I think we have to say that what the Netanyahu government is doing amounts to genocide.”

Labour MP Rosena Allin-Khan, a former shadow minister, also called on her party leader to make discussing the situation in Gaza with Mr Trump a “top priority”.

Speaking to Sky News’ Politics Hub With Sophy Ridge, she said: “We say ‘never again’ when we look at Bosnia and Rwanda, but here we are again, and it’s been livestreamed, and we’ve all seen it.

“We cannot be bystanders to a genocide.”

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‘We cannot be bystanders’

UN report pulls no punches

The accusation of genocide is made by the UN Independent International Commission of Inquiry on the Occupied Palestinian Territory.

It alleges Israel has been “killing Palestinians or forcing them to live in inhumane conditions that led to death; causing serious bodily or mental harm, including through torture, displacement and sexual crime; deliberately imposing inhumane conditions, and fourthly, imposing measures intending to prevent births”.

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Earlier this month, the International Association of Genocide Scholars also passed a resolution stating that Israel’s conduct passed the threshold of committing genocide.

However, a report from the British government said it had “not concluded” that Israel intended to “destroy in whole or in part a national, ethnic, racial or religious group”.

Nearly 65,000 people are now believed to have died, according to figures collated by Gaza’s Hamas-run health ministry. It does not distinguish between civilians and combatants in its count.

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No 10 insists migrant returns deal isn’t a ‘shambles’ after court blocks man’s removal

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No 10 insists migrant returns deal isn't a 'shambles' after court blocks man's removal

Downing Street has insisted its migrant returns scheme with France is not a “shambles” after the High Court blocked a man’s deportation.

Having seen the previous Conservative government’s Rwanda scheme run into trouble with the courts, the Labour administration’s alternative suffered its own setback on Tuesday.

An Eritrean man, who cannot be named for legal reasons, was due to be on a flight to France this morning.

He brought a legal claim against the Home Office, with lawyers acting on his behalf saying the case “concerns a trafficking claim”.

They also said he had a gunshot wound to his leg, and would be left destitute if he was deported.

The Home Office said it was reasonable to expect him to have claimed asylum in France before he reached the UK in August, but the ruling went in his favour.

Mr Justice Sheldon granted the man a “brief period of interim relief”.

While the judge said there did not appear to be a “real risk” he would face destitution in France, the trafficking claim required further interrogation.

He said the case should return to court “as soon as is reasonably practical in light of the further representations the claimant […] will make on his trafficking decision”.

A Number 10 spokesperson downplayed the development, insisting removals under the deal with France will start “imminently” and ministers are not powerless in the face of the courts.

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‘One in, one out’ deal: What do we know?

‘We told you so’

The pilot scheme was announced to much fanfare in July, after Emmanuel Macron made a state visit to the UK.

Sir Keir Starmer had hoped the agreement – which would see the UK send asylum seekers who have crossed the Channel back over to France in exchange for migrants with links to Britain – would prove more resilient to court challenges than the Tories’ Rwanda plan.

He wants the number of migrants being returned to France to gradually increase over the course of the scheme, to deter them from coming in small boats.

The pilot came into force last month and is in place until June 2026.

Tory leader Kemi Badenoch was quick to say “we told you so” following Tuesday’s court decision, while Reform UK’s Nigel Farage criticised the government’s plan.

Mr Farage – who has said he would deport anyone who arrives in Britain illegally – said: “Even if the policy worked, one in, one out, and with another one in, still means plus one for everyone that crosses the Channel.”

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Migrant deal with France has ‘started’

The small boats crisis represents one of the biggest challenges for the new home secretary, Shabana Mahmood, following her promotion in Sir Keir’s recent reshuffle.

Speaking to Sky News’ Politics Hub With Sophy Ridge, Labour peer Maurice Glasman backed her to deliver.

Describing the former justice secretary as “very tough”, he said: “She’s completely for real. I’ve known her for over 10 years – she really wants to see law and order restored.”

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UK to strengthen ties with US on crypto matters: Report

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UK to strengthen ties with US on crypto matters: Report

UK to strengthen ties with US on crypto matters: Report

The UK has discussed adopting a more crypto-friendly approach with the US in a bid to boost industry innovation and attract more investment to Britain.

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