Two-child cap to hit extra 670,000 children in next five years, thinktank warns

Published

11 months ago

June 16, 2024

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An extra 250,000 children will be hit by the two-child benefit cap next year, rising to an extra half a million by 2029, a leading thinktank has warned.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) said the number of children who will fall under the cap – which limits child benefits for the first two children in most households – will reach 670,000 by the end of the next parliament if the policy is not reformed.

The two-child benefit cap, which restricts Child Tax Credit and Universal Credit to the first two children, was brought in by the Conservative government in 2017.

Campaigners have long called for it to be abolished on the grounds it would lift thousands of children out of poverty.

It comes as a separate study from the Joseph Rowntree Foundation (JRF) found 40% of people who work in primary schools and GP surgeries have considered quitting their job because of a “shameful” level of hardship among the population.

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The JRF found the service providers were “staggering under the weight of hardship” by having to provide extra support to the nearly four million people struggling to pay for essentials including food, heating and clothing.

The IFS said the two-child cap has helped drive up the share of children in large families who are in relative poverty from 35% in 2014-15 to 46% in 2022 – a period when poverty for families with one or two children fell.

The Labour Party has faced pressure to drop the cap – including from former prime minister Gordon Brown – but has so far refused to commit to ending it, citing the current state of the country’s finances.

The pressure intensified further after figures on the right, including former home secretary Suella Braverman and Reform leader Nigel Farage, both called for the cap to be scrapped.

Abolishing the cap does not appear in either the Tory or Labour manifestos, with only the Green Party and Liberal Democrats making the commitment in their offers to the public.

The IFS said removing the cost of the limit would cost the government about £3.4bn a year, equivalent to freezing fuel duties for the next parliament.

The limit currently affects two million children and more children are added each year because it applies to those born after 5 April 2017.

The IFS said when fully rolled out, the cap will affect one in five children, rising to 38% of those in the poorest fifth of households.

It said 43% of children in households with at least one person of Bangladeshi or Pakistani origin will be affected, while those who fall under it on average will lose £4,300 per year – representing 10% of their income.

IFS research economist Eduin Latimer said: “The two-child limit is one of the most significant welfare cuts since 2010 and, unlike many of those cuts, it becomes more important each year as it is rolled out to more families.”

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Mubin Haq, chief executive of the abrdn Financial Fairness Trust, which funded the research, said: “The limit has been a significant contributor to child poverty amongst large families during a period when poverty for families with one or two children fell.

“If the next government is serious about tackling child poverty, it will need to review the two-child limit.”

Alison Garnham, the chief executive of Child Poverty Action Group, said the “biggest driver” of child poverty in the UK was the two-child limit.

“Any government serious about making things better for the next generation will have to scrap the two-child limit, and do so quickly.”

A Labour spokesperson said: “We are under no illusions about the scale of the task ahead if we win the election.

“Labour has already set out how we would make a start, with free breakfast clubs in every primary school, cutting fuel poverty and bringing down energy bills, banning exploitative zero hours contracts, making work pay, ending no-fault evictions and creating more good jobs right across the country.”

Politics

Government delays child poverty strategy – leaving tens of thousands facing hardship

Published

11 hours ago

May 24, 2025

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Government delays child poverty strategy - leaving tens of thousands facing hardship

The two-child benefit cap has been a raw nerve for the Labour party since long before they came to power.

It’s become increasingly exposed amid internal party divisions over the government’s forthcoming welfare reforms, which are expected to push another 250,000 people into poverty, including 50,000 children.

Lifting the cap could raise up to 350,000 children out of poverty, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies.

A left-wing rebellion over the issue just weeks after the general election saw seven of the party’s MPs lose the whip.

But in a bid to show he was still committed to tackling the problem – while also kicking the ball down the road – Keir Starmer set up a child poverty taskforce, which promised to look at policies to tackle the “root causes” of the issue. That taskforce was due to report in the “spring” – which should be any day now.

But now, as first reported by the Guardian, the Department of Work and Pensions has confirmed it has decided to push back publication until later in the year, to ensure its “ambitious child poverty strategy” can deliver “fully funded measures”.

I understand that means the announcements will be made as part of the autumn statement – and it looks like the prime minister is now backing a change on the cap.

Welsh First Minister Eluned Morgan told Sky News on Friday that the issue was brought up by “lots” of attendees of a meeting of regional mayors and first ministers, and the PM said they’d “like to see some movement – it’s about when and how”.

Scrapping the two-child benefit cap is seen by charities as the most effective way of pulling children out of poverty. But doing so will come at a cost, estimated to be some £2.5bn.

The prime minister has previously suggested he would like to lift the cap, but only when the fiscal situation allows. This promise was one of the government’s key public declarations of responsibility to the financial markets.

But this week he’s signalled he’s prepared to U-turn over the other flashpoint policy – means testing the winter fuel allowance.

Under pressure from concerned MPs and activists riled up by thousands of angry doorstep conversations during their recent local election debacle, he is prepared to move.

He’s justified that change by arguing it was right to look again at the measure “as the economy improves”. But if that’s the case – why not do the same for children as for pensioners?

Charities estimate the two-child benefit cap pushes another 100 children into poverty every day, which would affect another 20,000 by the time of the budget.

Some Labour MPs are prepared to criticise the delay publicly. Neil Duncan-Jordan told me: “Millions of families will be devastated by the delay in tackling the scandal of child poverty… the need to act is now.”

But others, including Helen Barnard, from the Trussell Trust charity, have argued the delay might not be such a bad thing, posting on X: “This may be good news. Better a delayed child poverty strategy with measures to really protect children from hunger and hardship than one hitting the deadline but falling short on substance.”

It’s unclear how the government would fund such a change. This week, former PM Gordon Brown told Sky News’ Sophy Ridge they should be looking at a gambling tax to find the cash.

By giving ground now on winter fuel and hints on child benefit, Sir Keir may be hoping to head off the fermenting rebellion on his planned welfare cuts.

But those MPs angry about welfare cuts are also incensed about child poverty – and today’s news will likely only embolden their resistance.

Politics

Trump’s use of presidential seal at memecoin event raises legal questions

Published

16 hours ago

May 24, 2025

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Trump’s use of presidential seal at memecoin event raises legal questions

President Donald Trump is facing scrutiny after speaking at a private event for top investors in his $TRUMP memecoin while standing behind a lectern emblazoned with the official presidential seal — a move that may violate federal law.

The event took place Thursday at Trump National Golf Club in Virginia, where Trump addressed 220 investors in his cryptocurrency project.

According to US law, the presidential seal cannot be used in any manner that could imply government approval or sponsorship. Violators can face fines or up to six months in prison.

Trump, who arrived at the club aboard a military helicopter, praised attendees and took aim at the Biden administration’s crypto stance.

When asked about potential conflicts of interest, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said the president’s involvement was personal. “It is not a White House dinner,” she told reporters. “It’s not taking place here at the White House.”

Trump features presidential seal at private properties

This isn’t the first time Trump has featured the presidential seal at his private properties. Forbes has previously reported its use as golf markers at several Trump-owned clubs.

In a May 22 letter to the Justice Department, 35 House members asked the public integrity section acting chief, Edward Sullivan, to launch an inquiry over the memecoin dinner to determine whether it violated the federal bribery statute or the foreign emoluments clause of the US Constitution.

Under the emoluments clause, a US president is barred from accepting any gift from a foreign state without the approval of Congress.

Bloomberg reported that a majority of the attendees at the memecoin dinner were likely foreign nationals based on their connections to crypto exchanges.

“US law prohibits foreign persons from contributing to US political campaigns,” said the letter. “However, the $TRUMP memecoin, including the promotion of a dinner promising exclusive access to the President, opens the door for foreign governments to buy influence with the President, all without disclosing their identities.”

Trump embraces crypto despite previous skepticism

Trump’s embrace of crypto marks a sharp turn from his skepticism during his first term. The $TRUMP memecoin, launched earlier this year, peaked at $74.34 before falling to $14.44 by May 22.

High-profile guests at the dinner included Tron founder Justin Sun, ex-NBA player Lamar Odom, and Asian crypto executives Sangrok Oh and Vincent Liu.

Sun, who reportedly invested over $40 million in $TRUMP tokens and spoke at the dinner, also has deep ties to Trump’s crypto ventures. He’s the top backer of World Liberty Financial, a Trump-affiliated firm currently under regulatory scrutiny.

Magazine: Crypto scam hub expose stunt goes viral, Kakao detects 70K scam apps: Asia Express

Politics

Judge overturns fraud convictions in Mango Markets exploit case

Published

19 hours ago

May 24, 2025

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Judge overturns fraud convictions in Mango Markets exploit case

A US federal judge has vacated key fraud and manipulation convictions against Avraham Eisenberg, the trader at the center of the case involving a $110 million exploit of the decentralized exchange Mango Markets.

On Friday, US District Judge Arun Subramanian ruled that the evidence presented at trial failed to support the jury’s conclusion that Eisenberg made materially false representations to Mango Markets.

The decision vacates Eisenberg’s convictions for commodities fraud and market manipulation and acquits him of a third charge, significantly weakening the government’s case.

Eisenberg, a self-proclaimed “applied game theorist,” was convicted in 2024 for artificially inflating the price of Mango’s MNGO token by over 1,300% in a matter of minutes and using the resulting gains as collateral to withdraw $110 million in crypto assets from the platform.

Judge sides with Eisenberg

The Justice Department argued that he deceived Mango’s smart contract-based lending system, but Eisenberg’s defense maintained that he merely exploited poorly designed, permissionless code — without making any false representations.

Judge Subramanian agreed, writing that “Mango Markets was permissionless and automatic,” meaning the system couldn’t be deceived in a legal sense. “There was insufficient evidence of falsity,” the judge added, siding with Eisenberg’s interpretation of DeFi mechanics.

The judge also rejected prosecutors’ argument that the case should be heard in New York. Eisenberg was in Puerto Rico at the time of the trades, and the court found that no meaningful activity tied to the alleged crime occurred in New York.

The DOJ had cited a Poughkeepsie-based Mango user and a third-party vendor in Manhattan, but the judge ruled these were not enough to establish proper venue.

The US government must now decide whether to refile the vacated charges, though the Trump administration has recently signaled a reduced focus on crypto enforcement. Eisenberg still faces civil suits from both the SEC and CFTC.

While this ruling clears Eisenberg in the Mango Markets case, he remains behind bars.

Eisenberg charged with child pornography

In a separate case, Eisenberg was sentenced to nearly four years in prison on May 1 after pleading guilty to possessing child pornography — a charge stemming from unrelated evidence uncovered during his arrest.

In December 2022, US federal law enforcement authorities arrested Eisenberg in Puerto Rico. FBI officials charged the hacker with one count of commodities fraud and one count of commodities manipulation.

A jury found Eisenberg guilty of wire fraud, commodities fraud, and commodities manipulation in April 2024. The defense argued that the exploit was not a cybercrime and represented a “successful and legal trading strategy.”

Magazine: Crypto scam hub expose stunt goes viral, Kakao detects 70K scam apps: Asia Express