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A used 2020 Tesla Model 3 is available for sale on a CarMax lot on March 10, 2022 in Burbank, California. 

Mario Tama | Getty Images News | Getty Images

Back in February, used electric vehicle prices dipped below used gasoline-powered vehicle prices for the first time ever, and the pricing cliff keeps getting steeper as car buyers reject any “premium” tag formerly associated with EVs.

The decline has been dramatic over the past year. In June 2023, average used EV prices were over 25% higher than used gas car prices, but by May, used EVs were on average 8% lower than the average price for a used gasoline-powered car in U.S. In dollar terms, the gap widened from $265 in February to $2,657 in May, according to an analysis of 2.2 million one to five year-old used cars conducted by iSeeCars. Over the past year, gasoline-powered used vehicle prices have declined between 3-7%, while electric vehicle prices have decreased 30-39%. 

“It’s clear used car shoppers will no longer pay a premium for electric vehicles,” iSeeCars executive analyst Karl Brauer stated in an iSeeCars report published last week. Electric power is now a detractor in the consumer’s mind, with EVs “less desirable” and therefore less valuable than traditional cars, he said.

The gap between used luxury brands and EVs has widened, too. Used BMW prices exceed prices for comparable, all-electric, Tesla vehicles by a significant amount, according to iSeeCars. A Tesla Model 3 cost $2,635 more than a BMW 3 Series in May 2023, but by May of this year, was priced over $4,800 less than the 3 Series. 

More people are selling their used EVs today than ever before, at least partially because the market is bigger than every before. In 2022, 176,918 used EVs were purchased in the U.S. In May alone, that number increased to over 45,000. There are many more vehicles in the used market than new car market, and used vehicle value does rapidly depreciate as a rule. A one-year-old used car is, on average, priced at 80% of the same car sold new. As more EVs enter the used market at lower prices, the EV market does become available to a wider market of potential first-time EV owners. 

The South Point pre-owned car lot on June 07, 2023 in Austin, Texas.

Why experts say falling EV prices could actually hinder widespread adoption

There are reasons why EV premiums are more likely to decline in the used market regardless of the recent consumer perception shift: battery technology is continually getting better, increasing range on new models, and consumers also worry about batteries degrading over time. Newer models have longer ranges and improved battery life with temperature control for charging. Between 30-50% of the value embedded in an EV is the battery. But offsetting that is the fact that EVs have lower overall owner costs, from fuel to maintenance, and owners of used EVs can qualify for federal tax credits. 

A key factor in the recent decline in used EV prices has been Tesla CEO Elon Musk, who began an industry price war as demand slumped by cutting prices in 2023, with price cuts on Model X, Y and S vehicles continuing into 2024. Scott Case, the CEO of Recurrent, a startup that measures EV battery performance for auto consumers, recently told CNBC that declining used Tesla prices correspond to new Tesla price drops, followed by decreasing prices across used EV competitors. 

In January, Hertz also shifted its aggressive EV strategy to sell off 20,000 EVs at Hertz Car Sales locations, roughly one-third of its EV fleet, selling used Teslas at a “no haggle” $25,000 average price across the country.

Declining market demand for EVs and a lack of infrastructure have pushed many auto companies to step back from aggressive EV rollouts, and put more promotion behind hybrid models, which are experiencing a boom. General Motors recently cut its expected sales and production of EVs from a 200,000–300,000 range to 200,000-250,000. EVs made up less than 3% of GM’s Q1 sales. Ford has faced losses from its Model E electric vehicle rollout, even as combined hybrid and EV sales rose in May. Ford has now made the decision to rescind a program announced during the initial EV boom that required Ford dealers to make significant investments in EV infrastructure to be able to sell electric vehicles.

Charging infrastructure is still in an early stage and without increased infrastructure, switching to electric vehicles is an accessibility issue for many Americans. But access to EV chargers is growing. There are over 64,000 publicly accessible electric vehicle charging stations in the United States, with over 176,000 total EV charging ports, according to the Department of Energy. EV charging infrastructure has grown by 29% since the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, which included tax incentives to adopt EVs. There are roughly 145,000 gas stations in the U.S. 

A Pew Research analysis using Department of Energy data found that roughly six in 10 Americans now live within two miles of a public charger, though only 7% of people who live within two miles of a charger will consider buying an EV, Pew found. Most EV charging still occurs at home, while there are also rural EV “deserts.”

A Gallup poll of Americans in April found ownership of EVs increasing by 3% annually, but an equal percentage decline in consumers who indicated serious interest in buying an EV, down from 12% to 9%. Overall, 35% of Americans said they might consider buying an EV in the future, down from 43% last year.

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What are these hidden vehicles in Rivian’s shareholder letter?

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What are these hidden vehicles in Rivian's shareholder letter?

On top of Rivian’s big VW partnership news today, we also got a look at what some of Rivian’s future plans might include – including some vehicles that we haven’t heard anything about before.

To recap the news, VW will invest up to $5 billion into Rivian and form a joint venture giving VW access to much of Rivian’s electrical and electronic architecture expertise. This will help Rivian with much-needed liquidity as it tries to get costs down and start generating cash flow from vehicle sales, and will help VW with the software issues it has been having in ramping up its EV projects.

To explain the news, Rivian posted a shareholder letter on its website, which is mostly filled with the basic financial details that we saw earlier in press releases.

But it also includes a graphic demonstrating the scalability of Rivian’s software across its platforms, meant to show how Rivian is unifying and simplifying its vehicle control software.

And that graphic has something very interesting – some hidden vehicles that we haven’t heard anything about yet. Have a look:

The obvious ones here are the already-released vehicles, Rivian’s RCV, R1T and R1S. The R1T and R1S are then repeated in column 2, in reference to the newly-released “Gen 2” architecture. This architecture led to a big upgrade in Rivian’s EVs for this model year, cutting lots of cost and complexity.

Then, in column 3, we have the R2 and R3 which Rivian unveiled in March. These will both be built on an architecture Rivian is calling “MSP.”

But despite that we’ve seen these next-gen R1 and MSP vehicles, both columns 2 and 3 have placeholder vehicles under covers.

While these are definitely just placeholder images and could be anything, they are notably a different size/shape than each other, suggesting that the unreleased gen 2 vehicle will be larger than the MSP vehicle.

The gen 2 vehicle could be an upgraded RCV, with more simplified electronics for cost-cutting, but the silhouette doesn’t look right. However, that might be an attempt by Rivian to obfuscate the car’s form, as a van silhouette would be quite obvious.

The unreleased gen 3 vehicle, then, does look lower and smaller than the gen 2. It could indeed be the R3X, but we’ve already seen that one, so it wouldn’t make a lot of sense to put it back under a cover. That said, Rivian was a little more secretive about showing us the interior of the R3X, as compared to the amount of info it gave us about the R2, so it could be the R3X… but wouldn’t it be more fun if it wasn’t?

For one thing, it could potentially be an R2T, a more affordable and smaller truck. While we knew the R2 would come in SUV format, many assumed that Rivian might mention an R2 truck alongside the R2 SUV, given that the company started with a truck to begin with. We didn’t see an R2T at the unveiling, but maybe they’re still working on that. The silhouette under the cover doesn’t look like a truck – but again, that would be a dead giveaway, so it makes sense they’d just use a default image.

Finally, we reach the last column: “affordable mass market.” This, too, is new, and includes three separate vehicle forms. While we’ve already learned not to trust the placeholder images, note that the images are all different, suggesting that there might be a large, medium and small-size vehicle on this eventual platform.

When R2 and R3 were unveiled, many figured that the R3 would likely be lower price than the R2, which Rivian confirmed – but didn’t go any further than that to state a price range. We assumed it would probably be somewhere around the price level of the Volvo EX30 or Chevy Equinox – somewhere in the mid-30s. We figured this was the next step towards mass-market, as it would be lower in price than the R2.

Another category of “affordable mass market” vehicles suggests either that the R3 will be higher in price than we had thought, leaving room in the low-to-mid 30s for a 4th-gen platform, or it suggests that Rivian is working on a ~$25k vehicle to be in the truly affordable mass market range, among the lowest price level offered for new vehicles by most major manufacturers (and in the future dreams of EV makers, like VW’s ~$22k 2027 offering or the fabled $25k Tesla Model 2).

We also don’t know what size those vehicles will be. They may all be “crossover-like” vehicles like those Rivian currently makes and has announced (the R3 sits somewhere between crossover and hot hatch), and the vehicles under the sheets (which, again, we can’t trust) do look to have “Rivian DNA” and may just be photos of the R1, R2 and R3. But perhaps the use of 3 different vehicle sizes suggests that Rivian might be working on a sedan, a compact, a sporty small car, or something along those lines. The company’s first-ever project was a sportscar, after all.

Or maybe it’s nothing at all. We reached out to Rivian about this and were told “it just demonstrates how our software can scale across platforms.”

But if that’s the case, why not use photos of VW vehicles, or why use vehicles that are clearly Rivian-styled rather than generic lumps? Why have a covered vehicle under the Gen 2 column, which presumably wouldn’t be the architecture used by any partnerships (as MSP would likely be ready by the time this VW partnership bears fruit)? So, we still think there’s something here.

A final note is that, while we did know the R2 was coming and saw several leaks in advance of its unveiling, everyone was blindsided by the R3. Similarly, when Rivian first unveiled its R1T in 2018, it was a complete surprise to everyone despite that the automaker had been founded in 2009 and had been working in “stealth mode” since then. So, Rivian does know how to keep secrets, apparently, and your guess is as good as ours as to what’s under those covers.

What do you think Rivian is hiding? Or is it nothing at all? Let us know in the comments.

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Cybertruck recalls, Tesla vs. Camry, Polestar upgrades, and electric flight gets real

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Cybertruck recalls, Tesla vs. Camry, Polestar upgrades, and electric flight gets real

We gave the Tesla Cybertruck a lot of heat yesterday, and today we’re back for more as every single example of the controversial electric pickup built so far has been recalled. Meanwhile a Model 3 is cheaper than a Camry now, Polestar 2 gets an upgrade, and electric flight takes off. All this and more on today’s energizing episode of Quick Charge!

I also want to draw attention to yesterday’s Quick Charge episode and say that I didn’t mean for the call for better signage to be a criticism of the signage at Wrigley Field. As many of you pointed out in the comments, the last thing we need as drivers is more signs and more distractions. That said, I stand by the assertion that big signs build confidence in the ICE-driving normies, but the best answer might be something more nuanced than a 60′ EV charging sign.

See? I do pay attention to the comments! (Totally doubling down on that whole “picking on the Cybertruck” thing, though.) Enjoy!

Prefer listening to your podcasts? Audio-only versions of Quick Charge are now available on Apple PodcastsSpotifyTuneIn, and our RSS feed for Overcast and other podcast players.

New episodes of Quick Charge are recorded Monday through Thursday (that’s the plan, anyway). We’ll be posting bonus audio content there as well, so be sure to follow and subscribe so you don’t miss a minute of Electrek’s high-voltage daily news!

Got news? Let us know!
Drop us a line at tips@electrek.co. You can also rate us on Apple Podcasts and Spotify, or recommend us in Overcast to help more people discover the show!

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VW will invest up to $5B into Rivian to form joint venture for next-gen EVs

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VW will invest up to B into Rivian to form joint venture for next-gen EVs

VW and Rivian have just announced that the two companies will form a joint venture, bringing Rivian’s software expertise to VW’s products and providing an initial $1 billion, and potentially up to an eventual $5 billion, in capital for Rivian to get through its push to deliver its upcoming R2 vehicle.

Rivian is currently working hard to get costs down in its quest for profitability. While the company has large cash reserves, it’s running through them at relatively rapid rate. The financials get a little bit better each quarter, but there is still a lot of work to be done.

Recently, Rivian announced that it would delay building its plant in Georgia in order to save over $2 billion in the short term, helping reduce pressure on its near-term financials.

Now, today, the company has had another pressure valve released, as VW and Rivian have announced they will form a joint venture to bring Rivian’s software to VW’s EVs, with VW offering an initial $1 billion in capital and potentially up to $5 billion by 2026.

“Our customers benefit from the targeted partnership with Rivian to create a leading technology architecture. Through our cooperation, we will bring the best solutions to our vehicles faster and at lower cost. We are also acting in the best interest of our strong brands, which will inspire with their iconic products. The partnership fits seamlessly with our existing software strategy, our products, and partnerships. We are strengthening our technology profile and our competitiveness.”

Oliver Blume, CEO of Volkswagen Group

The partnership is valuable for VW as well, as software has been its biggest issue recently. VW’s previous CEO, Herbert Diess, stepped down in 2022, and it’s thought that software issues were the main reason for his departure. In 2023, VW hired a former Rivian exec to help with software. It must have liked what it got, as the companies are deepening their relationship now.

The partnership begins with VW offering a $1 billion convertible note to Rivian, which will convert into an equity holding around the end of this year.

In addition, the two companies will establish a 50/50 joint venture around “next generation electrical/electronic architecture.” This will give VW immediate access to Rivian’s software architecture, which has been seen as one of the major strengths of the company.

“We’re very excited to be partnering with Volkswagen Group. Since the earliest days of Rivian, we have been focused on developing highly differentiated technology, and it’s exciting that one of the world’s largest and most respected automotive companies has recognized this. Not only is this partnership expected to bring our software and associated zonal architecture to an even broader market through Volkswagen Group’s global reach, but this partnership also is expected to help secure our capital needs for substantial growth. Rivian was created to help the world to transition away from fossil fuels through compelling products and services, and this partnership is beautifully aligned with that mission.”

RJ Scaringe, Founder and CEO of Rivian

After the establishment of this joint venture, VW says it will invest an additional $4 billion into Rivian, in $1 billion tranches in 2025 and 2026, contingent on Rivian meeting “certain milestones.”

After the announcement, RIVN stock is trading up more than 40% in after hours trading. It had already risen 8% during today’s trading session after an analyst upgrade. Rivian will hold an investor call at 3pm Pacific, 6pm eastern here.

Electrek’s Take

This is great news for Rivian, and great news for VW as well.

However, Rivian has had a number of past partnerships that didn’t turn out.

Rivian had previously partnered with Ford to build Ford/Lincoln EVs and also with Mercedes to build electric vans. Both of those fell through, with the Mercedes deal including a joint venture and the Ford deal including a big investment which Ford later trimmed.

Rivian has also partnered with Amazon to deliver 100,000 delivery vans. That partnership is going well with over 10,000 vehicles delivered, but the exclusivity portion of the contract recently ran out, and now Rivian is looking for more purchasers.

In this case, though, I can see a direct reason for Voltswagen to need Rivian’s help. While their software is a lot better now than it used to be, software has been the achilles heel of traditional auto companies in general, and VW specifically. And with VW’s yearly revenue ($335 billion in 2023), they can spare a little change to fix one of their major problems.

One other interesting note: VW recently spun off its classic Scout brand into a Rivian-like adventure EV. That was seen as an attempt to compete in a market that Rivian is currently the best offering in. We wonder if this partnership will include using Rivian’s expertise for the Scout? Stay tuned.

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