Can Connor McDavid win the Conn Smythe even if the Oilers don’t win the Stanley Cup?
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Greg Wyshynski, ESPN
SUNRISE, Fla. — For many NHL players, a four-point performance in Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Final that also shattered a Wayne Gretzky playoff record would be a career achievement.
For Connor McDavid, it was Saturday.
Edmonton Oilers winger Zach Hyman has witnessed plenty of McDavid magic since becoming his teammate three seasons ago — McDavid had a hand on the majority of Hyman’s 117 goals with the Oilers. But he was still in awe of McDavid’s accomplishment in Game 4: setting a new NHL record for assists in a single postseason (32), passing Gretzky’s 1988 record, while moving into fifth place for most points (38) in a single postseason.
“It’s pretty unbelievable,” Hyman said. “I don’t think many people thought any of Wayne’s statistics were attainable. He’s the Great One. I think Connor is putting together one of the best postseasons [ever]. He’s taken that onus.”
McDavid has been everything for Edmonton, from his five-point night to start the playoffs to his Game 6 heroics against the Dallas Stars to his seven points in the Final, leading all scorers. If the Oilers somehow rally to win the Stanley Cup after falling 3-0 to the Florida Panthers, McDavid should win the Conn Smythe as playoff MVP in a walk.
But should he be the Conn Smythe winner, win or lose for Edmonton?
THE OILERS BELIEVE the MVP is McDavid’s, no matter what the team does.
“For sure. He’s the one guy who consistently brings an elite level play every game for us,” defenseman Brett Kulak said. “Maybe people on the outside looking in might not see everything he’s doing, but we feel his contributions and his impact on the team every single night. He always brings that extra gear.”
Edmonton forward Dylan Holloway also believes McDavid is the playoffs’ MVP, no matter if the Oilers fall short of the Cup.
“I think so. I mean, anytime you beat Gretzky’s record, it’s pretty special,” he said. “He’s been unbelievable so far for us. He’s such a great leader. So I think so, yeah.”
The Conn Smythe has been awarded 58 times. It’s been given to a player from the team that lost in the Stanley Cup Final just five times. In four of those cases, it’s gone to a goaltender: Roger Crozier of the Detroit Red Wings (1966), Glenn Hall of the St. Louis Blues (1968), Ron Hextall of the Philadelphia Flyers (1987) and Jean-Sebastien Giguere of the Mighty Ducks of Anaheim (2003).
Only one skater has captured the Conn Smythe in a losing effort: Reggie Leach of the Flyers in 1976. The Flyers had won back-to-back Stanley Cup championships, but they were swept in the ’76 Stanley Cup Final by the Montreal Canadiens.
As in other seasons where a losing player won the MVP, the Canadiens had strong candidates but not one that stood out. Ken Dryden was 12-1 with a 1.92 goals-against average, but he had already won the award as a rookie in 1971 and was playing behind a steamroller that lost just once en route to their seventh Stanley Cup since 1965. Guy LaFleur had a solid but unspectacular 17 points in 13 games. He would win the Conn Smythe in 1977 with 26 points in 14 games, for comparison’s sake.
The case for Leach is actually similar to the case for McDavid: Leading the playoffs in scoring while shattering NHL records.
Leach led the playoffs in scoring with 24 points in 16 games. His 19 goals set a Stanley Cup playoff record, breaking Montreal forward Yvan Cournoyer’s record of 15 goals in 17 games set in 1973. Leach had nine of those goal in the Flyers’ semifinals win over the Boston Bruins, accounting for nearly half of the Flyers’ tallies in the series and setting an NHL modern-era record for goals in a playoff series.
Leach’s Conn Smythe win was treated by the media as perfunctory, given his accomplishments. Sports Illustrated didn’t even report his MVP win in its game story. The New York Times didn’t mention Leach until the 13th paragraph of its story, right below a reference to Flyers anthem singer Kate Smith and her “flouncy, lime-colored dress.”
Like Reggie Leach, McDavid has:
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Led the playoffs in scoring by a considerable margin, eight points better than teammate Leon Draisaitl.
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Broken an NHL scoring record in leading his team to the Stanley Cup Final, by passing Gretzky in assists.
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Accounted for the majority of his team’s offensive accomplishments. Entering Game 5, McDavid has 38 points, and the Oilers have scored 75 goals. That puts McDavid on pace to become just the second player in NHL history to account for over half his team’s goals in a best-of-7 postseason. The other was — who else? — Wayne Gretzky in 1988, with 43 points on Edmonton’s 84 goals.
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Been the clear-cut MVP for his team while his opponents have multiple claims to the Conn Smythe throne. ESPN BET has goalie Sergei Bobrovsky and captain Aleksander Barkov neck-and-neck for MVP.
On top of that, McDavid’s teammates credit him as the catalyst for their playoff comebacks.
That tracks back to the regular season, when Edmonton’s resurgence after a disastrous start had as much to do with McDavid finding his game as the team’s change in coaches. In the playoffs, McDavid’s clutch nature actually gave him another NHL record: Most points (23) in games following a loss, passing Doug Gilmour (20 in 1993) for the most in one playoff year.
“Any time our team’s backs are against the wall, he’s the first guy to push back,” Hyman said. “For us to come back, he’s got to be the best. He seems to always be the best when we’re in these situations.”
0:54
McDavid sets assist record on Oilers’ 7th goal
Connor McDavid sets the single-season, postseason-assist record with his 32nd on a pass to Dylan Holloway.
THE PANTHERS HAVE multiple MVP candidates entering Game 5, and anecdotally, both Bobrovsky and Barkov have their supporters among the voters.
The path for Barkov is clear: Hit the scoreboard in a significant way in a Cup-clinching game, lead Florida in postseason scoring and exert his defensive will against McDavid’s line in that game. His 21 points are one better than Matthew Tkachuk for the team lead.
Bobrovsky’s path became a little more complicated after Game 4, when he was pulled in the second period following five Edmonton goals.
According to ESPN Stats & Info, Bobrovsky’s 2.27 goals-against average would be the worst by a Conn Smythe-winning goaltender since Edmonton’s Bill Ranford won in 1990 with a 2.53 GAA. Ranford had a higher save percentage (.912) than Bobrovsky currently has (.909). In fact, Playoff Bob’s save percentage would be the second-worst by a goaltender to win the Conn Smythe behind Hextall’s .908 save percentage in 1987, when he won MVP in a losing effort.
As a reminder, there are 18 members of the Professional Hockey Writers Association that vote on the Conn Smythe. (In full disclosure, I am not one of them.) They submit their top 3 for the Conn Smythe via email by the 10-minute mark of the third period of a potential Cup-clinching game.
Voters can submit contingencies with their selections. For example, let’s say a voter likes Bobrovsky but caveats that if Barkov scores the game-winner in a game that’s tied at the time of the voting, Barkov gets elevated to No. 1.
What happens in a Florida Game 5 win could ultimately decide which Panther takes the Conn Smythe.
But what if Edmonton wins to force Game 6?
Leach won the MVP in a sweep, as did Glenn Hall, but Crozier’s Red Wings lost in six games. The last two players on losing teams that won the Conn Smythe both lost the Cup in Game 7.
The longer the Stanley Cup Final goes, the stronger McDavid’s case as “MVP, win or lose” could get, provided he continues to be the one that rallies Edmonton.
But if you ask the Oilers, Connor McDavid should win the Conn Smythe regardless of the series result.
“He’s captain of the team. It’s his leadership and presence in the room. Off the ice. On practice days. The work he’s putting in, he’s setting the tone and setting the pace of every day,” Kulak said. “It’s not easy to do that. So, for my opinion, I think for sure [he should win].”
Following two transfer portal windows and the NFL draft, college football fans might need Apple AirTags to track where their favorite players wound up.
This space is dedicated to those who decided to stay — commitments who boosted their teams’ College Football Playoff hopes. Penn State’s 2022 recruiting class could take up half the list: quarterback Drew Allar, running backs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen, defensive end Dani Dennis-Sutton and defensive tackle Zane Durant are all back from the Nittany Lions’ CFP semifinal run.
“When we all committed here coming out of our ’22 class, that was one of our goals coming in as Penn Staters, we wanted to compete for championships, both Big Ten and obviously national championships,” Allar said. “And obviously we had a taste of that last year, and we know how close you are, so it’s just building off that and trying to make another run at it.”
Here’s a look at 13 players from 11 schools and representing five different leagues whose decisions to either forgo the NFL draft or sidestep the portal have beefed up their respective teams’ playoff chances.
The decision: Forgo the 2025 NFL draft
What his return means: Nussmeier, a fifth-year senior, and offensive coordinator Joe Sloan are entering their second season together and aiming to improve upon a stellar debut, which will help the Tigers contend for the SEC title. Nussmeier threw for 4,052 passing yards last year, 29 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. Even if LSU can’t win the league, Nussmeier’s return can help the Tigers earn an at-large CFP bid — especially if he makes a similar jump to his predecessors, Joe Burrow and Jayden Daniels, who both won the Heisman Trophy in their second seasons in Baton Rouge. Nussmeier’s dad, Doug, will be nearby as the Saints’ offensive coordinator after winning a Super Bowl as the Eagles’ quarterbacks coach. With four new starters on the Tigers’ offensive line, there’s going to be an adjustment period, but if the “Nuss Bus” gets the time he needs, this should be a breakout season and his draft stock will rise with LSU’s playoff chances.
2. Drew Allar, QB, Penn State
The decision: Forgo the 2025 NFL draft
What his return means: Penn State has something Ohio State and Oregon don’t — a starting quarterback with playoff experience. The Nittany Lions might finally have the pieces in place to return to the top of the Big Ten and contend for a national title. Allar, who’s entering his third season as the starter, will be surrounded by NFL talent on the offensive line and in the running game, and could make a case to be Penn State’s first Heisman Trophy winner since John Cappelletti in 1973. Last season, he had 3,327 passing yards, the third most in a season in school history. With a second season under coordinator Andy Kotelnicki, and more options at wide receiver — plus a still-loaded tight end room — there will be no shortage of options for Allar to push the ball downfield more.
The decision: Forgo the 2025 NFL draft
What his return means: On paper, Clemson has enough offensive firepower returning to elevate the Tigers into a deeper CFP run than their first-round exit in 2024 and they should have the Heisman-contending quarterback the program has desperately missed. Klubnik leads a Clemson offense that is No. 1 in the FBS in returning production (81%), according to ESPN’s Bill Connelly. Klubnik reestablished himself as one of the top quarterbacks in the country following a down season in 2023. Last year, his 308 completions, 3,639 passing yards and 36 passing touchdowns all ranked among the best seasons in program history. As he enters his third season as a starter under offensive coordinator Garrett Riley, Klubnik’s understanding of the offense and his relationship with Riley has grown, positioning Klubnik for what should be his best season with the Tigers.
4. Nicholas Singleton/Kaytron Allen, RBs, Penn State
The decision: Forgo the 2025 NFL draft
What their return means: The nation’s best running back duo returns intact, and they’ve got playoff experience along with familiarity and knowledge of the offense in coordinator Andy Kotelnicki’s second season, all of which should boost the Nittany Lions’ hopes of winning the Big Ten and returning to the CFP. Singleton and Allen were projected by ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. to be the Nos. 5 and 6 running backs available in the 2025 draft after becoming the first combo in Penn State history to each have at least 1,000 rushing yards in the same season. Penn State ran for more than 200 yards in 10 games last season, and the Nittany Lions led all Power 4 teams and Notre Dame in rushing with 3,237 yards. Of course, it helps to have 6-foot-4, 350-pound offensive guard Olaivavega Ioane blocking.
The decision: Avoid the transfer portal
What his return means: Sellers absolutely drew interest from other teams in November and December, but he re-signed quickly with the Gamecocks — and his commitment could be the difference between receiving or not receiving a CFP bid. The same can be said for edge rusher Dylan Stewart, who also attracted attention after 10.5 TFLs and 6.5 sacks last year. South Carolina made a playoff case with Sellers leading the offense last year, but the CFP selection committee didn’t rank the No. 15 Gamecocks high enough for inclusion. He improved throughout the season last fall, increasing his Total QBR from 52 in his first six games to 81 over the last six. This year, he’ll be working with Mike Shula, the son of Pro Football Hall of Fame coach Don Shula.
The decision: Avoid the transfer portal (twice)
What his return means: Illinois can be a CFP sleeper team by competing for the Big Ten title and earning an at-large bid if it doesn’t win the league. The importance of Illinois retaining its starting quarterback after a strong spring push from Tennessee can’t be understated. The Illini have a chance to be this year’s Indiana — a Big Ten contender with a manageable schedule that can play its way into the selection committee’s rankings with a standout quarterback and his supporting cast. After public speculation he might transfer for his final year of eligibility, Altmyer announced in December he would return to the team. He did it again in April, following the drama at Tennessee. Altmyer passed for 2,543 yards, 21 touchdowns and only five interceptions last year, leading Illinois to a 9-3 regular season and a top-20 ranking in the Associated Press poll.
The decision: Avoid the transfer portal
What his return means: K-State can win another wide-open Big 12 race and earn an automatic bid into the playoff as one of the five highest-ranked conference champions. Johnson never entered the transfer portal, but he attracted interest, especially after Tennessee lost Nico Iamaleava. “We got a damned wall built around him,” a K-State source told ESPN. “They better bring the Tennessee National Guard.” Expectations will be higher this year for Johnson, who threw for 2,712 passing yards, 25 touchdowns and 10 interceptions in his first full season as a starter last year. He also had 605 rushing yards and seven touchdowns. With the depth at wide receiver, K-State’s passing game could flourish this fall.
The decision: Forgo the NFL draft
What his return means: A veteran offensive line that includes four returning starters from a group that allowed the third-fewest sacks in the SEC last season (20). It also means better protection for quarterback DJ Lagway, who could be one of the best in the country if he can stay healthy — and Lagway’s health is the most critical component to Florida’s success this year. According to Pro Football Focus, Slaughter allowed one sack, one QB hit, six QB hurries and eight pressures — with only three penalties — in 728 snaps. The Gators again have one of the toughest schedules in the country, and Slaughter is the kind of veteran they need up front to help Lagway survive it.
The decision: Forgo the NFL draft
What his return means: That the Buckeyes didn’t lose everyone from their national championship defense. Styles had an outstanding 2024 season with 100 tackles, 11 tackles for loss, six sacks, a forced fumble, a fumble recovery and five passes defended. His draft stock rose as the Buckeyes ascended through the CFP bracket, but he told reporters at their national championship celebration that he “wasn’t ready to leave yet.” Styles still has room to improve and grow, and his draft stock will continue to rise. He’s now in a position of leadership as one of just three returning starters on defense and the most experienced player among the rising seniors.
The decision: Forgo the NFL draft
What his return means: The Ducks retained a 6-foot, 175-pound receiver who played a key role in advancing them to the top seed in the 2024 CFP, and they’ll need his help again — especially with the departure of Tez Johnson, who entered the NFL draft after leading Oregon with 83 receptions for 898 yards and 10 touchdowns his senior season. Stewart is Oregon’s only returning receiver who had more than 30 receptions in 2024. Stewart, who transferred to Oregon from Texas A&M, had 48 catches last season for 613 yards and tied for the team high with five receiving touchdowns. He was Oregon’s second-most targeted receiver in an offense that finished 13th nationally in passing yards. Stewart’s role will increase, and his decision to return will help the Ducks’ new starting quarterback, which could be former UCLA QB Dante Moore.
The decision: Forgo the NFL draft
What his decision means: The Longhorns have leadership, playoff experience, NFL talent and a familiar face returning to a defense that again has to replace multiple starters from the previous season. Taaffe, a rising senior who ascended from walk-on to All-American, had 71 tackles, 6 TFLs, 2 sacks, 2 interceptions, 10 passes defended, 1 forced fumble and 1 fumble recovery. His decision to return was driven in large part by the desire to win a national title at Texas and the devastation he said he felt following the loss to Ohio State. Taaffe will get another chance at the Buckeyes in the season opener.
The decision: Withdrew name from portal
What his return means: The Broncos were able to retain top talent from their 2024 CFP run, which featured one of the nation’s top defensive fronts, a huge boost for coach Spencer Danielson as he tries to own the Group of 5’s guaranteed spot as one of the nation’s five highest-ranked conference champions. Fely took visits to Miami and Cal before announcing on social media he planned to return to Boise. Fely, who spent the past three seasons at Boise State, started 28 games in the past two seasons. He had nine TFLs last year and 5.5 sacks.
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