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Grocery inflation has eased for the 16th month in a row, according to industry data released ahead of the general election also showing a price war aimed at luring fans during Euro 2024.

Kantar Worldpanel – which tracks supermarket till prices, sales and market share – said its measure of grocery inflation slowed to 2.1% in the four weeks to 9 June from 2.4% the previous month.

That left the figure at its lowest level since October 2021 – just months before the war in Ukraine prompted an unprecedented leap in till prices, becoming a key plank of the energy-driven cost of living crisis.

The report showed there is still upward pressure on the cost of items such as chilled fruit juices, vitamins and supplements and chocolate confectionery – the latter a consequence of poor cocoa harvests.

Prices were still falling fastest in toilet tissues, butter and milk, the study said.

Kantar said that despite progress in bringing down the pace of price rises at the tills, which has included the impact of discounting among chains, its survey work showed 22% of supermarket customers continued to struggle to make ends meet.

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UK economy flatlines in April

A greater proportion of shoppers, however, were feeling better off.

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The report suggested that 36% saw their financial position as ‘comfortable’, a level not surpassed since November 2021.

It can be mostly explained by pay growth outstripping inflation for more than a year. Official figures last week showed basic pay rising at a pace of 6%.

But despite improving personal finances, Kantar reported a hit to revenue growth values among grocers. It blamed the easing in grocery inflation and an impact from the sixth-wettest spring on record.

It said that consumers bought nearly 25% fewer suncare items over the four-week period compared with last year, while prepared salads dipped by 11%. Fresh soup sales, on the other hand, jumped by almost 24%.

Fraser McKevitt, Kantar’s head of retail and consumer insight, said promotional competition for business among supermarkets had evolved to target football fans.

It was a tense second half for fans in Dalston, east London. Pic: Reuters
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England and Scotland are competing in Euro 2024. Pic: Reuters

“With the men’s UEFA European Football Championship under way, the supermarkets will be waiting to see if positive performances by England and Scotland can deliver a win at the tills too.

“The grocers are looking to entice in consumers enjoying this year’s tournament, with the proportion of beer and lager sales on promotion leaping up to over 40% in the latest four weeks.

“Retailers will be competing with fans heading out of the house to watch the football as well as with each other.

“Pubs especially could benefit from a boost – whether or not football comes home.

“Throughout the last tournament held in 2021, sales of food and non-alcoholic drinks in pubs soared by 60% compared with the average month that year.”

Kantar’s report was the last ahead of the election and released less than 24 hours before the latest official inflation figures.

They are tipped by a poll of economists, carried out by the Reuters news agency, to show the main consumer prices index (CPI) measure of inflation slowing to 2% in the 12 months to May from 2.3% the previous month.

That would leave the rate level with the Bank of England’s 2% target rate.

However, the progress is not expected to result in an interest rate cut on Thursday because a majority of the Bank’s rate-setting committee are worried about inflation ticking up again during the second half of the year.

Financial markets currently see just a 9% chance that the Bank rate will be cut to 5% from 5.25% this week.

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Post Office Horizon expert admits seeing legal advice on trial obligations

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Post Office Horizon expert admits seeing legal advice on trial obligations

A key figure behind the flawed IT system that led to hundreds of sub-postmasters being wrongly jailed has told the Post Office inquiry he had “not remembered” legal advice he was given about his obligations as an expert witness.

Former senior Fujitsu engineer Gareth Jenkins was crucial in the prosecutions process because he was one of the architects of the Horizon accounting systems and one of a few people to have extensive knowledge of their workings.

He had said in his evidence on Tuesday that he had not received a letter by Bond Pearce solicitors that had explained his duty of impartiality as an expert witness.

At the start of his second day of evidence, he admitted under questions from counsel to the inquiry Jason Beer KC that he would have read the document in 2006, after it was shown he had been copied in.

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Mr Jenkins added, however, that his focus would have been on answering questions about Horizon that were contained in a separate attachment.

The letter, which related to the Post Office prosecution of postmaster Lee Castleton, was written four years before Mr Jenkins was presented as an expert witness in the case of Seema Misra, who was wrongfully jailed for 15 months while pregnant in 2010.

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Mr Jenkins told the inquiry on Tuesday that he had not understood the legal obligations of impartiality until 2020.

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Former engineer defends Horizon system

He alleged that the Post Office had exerted pressure on him to support their case against her.

Mr Jenkins, who is being investigated by police over suggestions of perjury, claimed in his witness statement that Post Office lawyer Warwick Tatford had looked over a draft of his witness statement for Mrs Misra’s trial and recommended he “make some points more strongly in favour of the Post Office”.

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This included, he said, that Mr Tatford “wanted me to say it looked as though Mrs Misra had stolen money rather it was incompetence,” Mr Jenkins wrote.

Asked by Mr Beer what he made of the proposed changes, Mr Jenkins said he assumed it was “normal practice” as he had no comparable experience, but added it had made him feel “uncomfortable”.

Put to him by Mr Beer that he had a number of opportunities to see if the Post Office was tweaking his evidence for its own interest by the end of Mrs Misra’s trial, Mr Jenkins told the inquiry: “Having looked back at things now, I can understand that may have been happening, but at the time I thought everything that was happening was just a legitimate tidying up of statements to make them more readable.”

He apologised to Mrs Misra. She later told Sky News that it was “too little, too late”.

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First Universal theme park in Europe to generate ‘£50bn of economic benefits for UK’

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First Universal theme park in Europe to generate '£50bn of economic benefits for UK'

New details have been unveiled for Universal’s first UK theme park – including plans for the attraction to be open 365 days a year.

Universal Destinations & Experiences – which is owned by Sky’s parent company Comcast – has bought land near Bedford as it plans to build Europe’s largest theme park with millions of visitors per year, as well as a 500-room hotel and dining area.

Economic benefits

Universal’s economic impact analysis, produced in line with HM Treasury guidelines on economic appraisal and published today suggests the attraction will generate nearly £50bn of economic benefits for the UK.

It said the net economic contribution of the potential project for the UK was forecast to be £35.1bn over the construction period and first 20 years of operation.

Up to a further £14.1bn was expected to be generated in extra taxes for the exchequer over the same period.

The analysis suggests the project will generate 20,000 jobs during the construction period which, at its peak, will see 5,000 workers on the site.

Once operational, it is expected to create an initial 8,000 new jobs, rising over time. The company has made a commitment to pay the living wage to employees.

‘The best location we’ve ever seen’

Universal has acquired almost 500 acres for the site, which is just south of Bedford between Kempston, Wootton, Stewartby and Wixams, with an option to buy up to a further 200 acres.

A map showing the land Universal has purchased
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A map showing the land Universal has purchased

The new park, which would have a construction period of around six years, would be built on land once occupied by Kempston Hardwick brickworks, once the world’s largest brickworks in terms of output, which closed in 2008 and which was demolished in September 2021.

“I can tell you it’s going to be a world-class park with all experiences that people will love based upon the most popular films, video games and stories that people have enjoyed for decades,” said Page Thompson, the company’s president in charge of new ventures.

“We’ve spent the last decade looking all over Europe and the United Kingdom for locations, and we think this is the best location we’ve ever seen.”

Universal Destinations & Experiences currently has five theme parks around the world – in the United States, Japan, China and Singapore.

Disneyland Paris, which with the associated Walt Disney Studios Park is currently Europe’s biggest theme park, attracts around 15 million visitors per year.

New details

“Our phase one plans consist of a theme park, a 500-room hotel and a dining area that people can come to even if they don’t have a theme park ticket,” Mr Thompson told Sky News.

“Over time, I would expect the number of hotels to grow.

“Our intention is that this park would be open 365 days a year, just like all of our other major theme parks.

“We have a whole series of special events, like our Halloween Horror Nights and carnival parties… and it just allows us to attract people throughout this time.”

Universal said evidence from its other theme parks suggested that for every job supported within the parks at least 1.5 further jobs could be supported in the supply chain and neighbouring parts of the economy – leading to its expectation of a net additional 20,000 jobs.

Plenty of competition

The investment is not without risks and not least because of its scale.

Of Europe’s 20 most visited theme parks, four – Legoland Windsor, Alton Towers, Chessington World of Adventures and Thorpe Park – are in the UK, all owned by the former FTSE-100 giant Merlin Entertainments. Their combined visitor numbers annually come to around half of what Universal is targeting.

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There is also plenty of competition.

Locally, not far from the proposed Bedfordshire site is the Harry Potter Experience at the Warner Bros studio tour near Watford, while there is Woburn Safari Park to the immediate north and Whipsnade Zoo to the immediate west of Luton.

There is no shortage of quality options for family days out. Further afield Europe already has more than 1,000 theme and amusement parks, many of them owned by Merlin, renowned for its astute management.

The weather issue

A third factor, potentially, is the weather. This is something that already handicaps a lot of theme parks in northern Europe, such as Liseberg in the Swedish city of Gothenburg, the Tivoli Gardens in the Danish capital Copenhagen and the original Legoland, in the Danish city of Billund, which close for some or all of the winter. So does Phantasialand, one of Germany’s biggest and most popular attractions.

Universal Destinations & Experiences, however, is thought to be undeterred by the English weather and points to the fact that the weather is not always perfect in other parts of the world in which it operates, most notably China and Japan.

The Paris experience

The company also appears undeterred by the experience of Disney in Paris.

The original Euro Disney was loss-making for many years – partly due to mismanagement and partly due to a misunderstanding of what European and particularly French consumers were looking for – and it has only really been since it was fully consumed by the Walt Disney Company, in 2017, that it has been effectively run.

Transport challenges

Another big risk is the transport links. Universal Destinations & Experiences – the name was changed last year from Universal Parks & Resorts to better reflect the kind of services customers will be offered in future in both the physical and virtual worlds – has selected the site primarily for its rail and road links to London and, with one in three visitors expected to come from overseas, for its proximity to Luton Airport.

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Yet those links are not currently up to handling the kind of visitor numbers Universal Destinations & Experiences is expecting.

The M1, the main road link to London, is frequently congested around the Luton turn-off at junction 10 and the road links from there to the site in need of improvement.

Accordingly, Universal Destinations & Experiences will be seeking government incentives to invest in local road and rail links.

Support could also come from East West Rail, the proposed new main line railway connecting East Anglia and South Wales, the first phase of which is a line between Oxford and Cambridge and for which a new station at Kempston Hardwick – whose existing station backs onto the land the park would operate – has been proposed.

The planning process

Riskiest of all, perhaps, is the planning process. Local businesses and MPs are supportive while both Jeremy Hunt, the Chancellor and Mark Harper, the Transport Secretary, have been briefed on the project. Planning proposals have been submitted and Universal Destinations & Experiences has held talks with Bedford Borough and Central Bedfordshire Councils.

However, Mr Thompson confirmed that Universal Destinations & Experiences is seeking planning permission via a so-called special development order – which would take the decision out of the hands of the local authorities and instead leave the final decision on planning consent with the Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities.

A roll of the dice

So this is a big roll of the dice by Universal Destinations & Experiences.

The investment – the first phase of which will be several billion pounds – will take many years to pay off while thrill-seekers should probably not expect the resort to be up and running much before the end of the decade.

However, starting with a blank sheet of paper as it opens its first European venue, Universal Destinations & Experiences has the opportunity to bring something genuinely new not just to the UK but to Europe.

The name change made by the business last year reflects the fact that, in future, the business expects to be offering branded entertainment, culinary, gaming and consumer product experiences that go a lot further than the traditional theme park and resort offerings.

There could even be experiences at the resort which have yet to be conceived. It could be quite the ride.

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Horizon engineer Gareth Jenkins defends accounting system at Post Office inquiry

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Horizon engineer Gareth Jenkins defends accounting system at Post Office inquiry

One of the architects of the Post Office Horizon accounting system has admitted there were “discreet” bugs but it generally “worked well”, dismissing suggestions he had knowledge of widespread flaws.

Gareth Jenkins, who was a lead engineer at Horizon supplier Fujitsu, told the public inquiry into the IT scandal that while pilots for both Horizon systems encountered troubles, systemic issues he was aware of were ironed out.

Under questioning from counsel to the inquiry Jason Beer KC, he believed the scale and seriousness of the bugs in the system that have been complained about was inconsistent with his own understanding of Horizon’s integrity.

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He said that applied to both the original software, now known as ‘legacy Horizon’, and the later Horizon Online system which, he pointed out, was still being used to this day.

Mr Jenkins was in the paid employment of Fujitsu from 1996 to 2022.

He was utilised, by the Post Office, as an expert witness in prosecutions of sub-postmasters on charges such as theft and false accounting.

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He gave evidence in the pivotal 2010 trial of Seema Misra, who was jailed while pregnant.

It has been alleged that Mr Jenkins failed to disclose then the existence of a known bug in the accounting system that had the potential to clear her name and halt other prosecutions.

In addition to knowledge of flaws in Horizon, he is facing further claims relating to the ability of Fujitsu personnel to access the legacy system without the knowledge of sub-postmasters.

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He is being investigated by police on perjury grounds.

The law states that expert witnesses in criminal cases must be impartial.

The inquiry has already heard Mr Jenkins was used on multiple occasions to provide information as the Post Office took sub-postmasters to court.

He said on Tuesday he was among individual engineers who would be asked to investigate a potential bug should an issue arise, describing one such occasion.

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“There was a mismatch in the Post Office back end accounts,” he said, explaining how he realised the problem was due to it taking the “accounts at different times”.

“One was taking the cash positions at 7pm in the evening and the other was taking the cash position at midnight, and this accounted for the mismatch they had in the accounts,” he said.

Mr Jenkins denied having knowledge of bugs other than those he was personally asked to investigate.

“I’m not sure that even today I understand what bugs actually did cause the problems that people suffer from,” he added, saying that those he was alerted to were “discreet” and “well controlled and managed at the time”.

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Asked if it had occurred to him that he should have made sure he knew about the problems that had not been referred to him before he went to court, Mr Jenkins replied: “That didn’t occur to me.

“I was confident, possibly wrongly so, that if problems did occur they were quickly fixed and not left to fester in the system to have a large impact.

“With hindsight I would have done things differently,” he added, saying he would have asked wider questions.

He also told Mr Beer he did not understand his duties of disclosure until 2020.

More than 700 sub-postmasters were wrongly convicted of crimes linked to their use of the Horizon systems.

Mr Jenkins is scheduled to give four days of evidence.

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