Electric, autonomous tech + EV demand driving mining equipment market growth
Rising demand for nickel, lithium, and phosphates combined with the natural benefits of electrification are driving the adoption of electric mining machines. At the same time, a persistent operator shortage is boosting demand for autonomous machines.
The combined factors listed above are rapidly accelerating the rate at which machines that are already in service are becoming obsolete – and, while some companies are exploring the cost/benefit of converting existing vehicles to electric or, in some cases, hydrogen, the general consensus seems to be that more companies will be be buying more new equipment more often in the years ahead.
Allied Market Research, for instance, is forecasting the global mining equipment market will grow from $141B in 2023, reaching a total value of more than $200B in 2040 based on a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.1% … but that seems hopelessly slow.
The International Energy Agency (IEA, a Paris-based, 31 nation organization established in 1974 that provides policy recommendations, analysis and data on the global energy sector) projects that mineral demand from EVs will see 30x growth between 2020 and 2040, with demand for lithium and nickel growing 40x as demand for diesel is dropping faster than most people predicted, reaching a 26-year low last quarter.
Mineral demand projections
The IEA’s projections take several battery development scenarios into consideration, and include increasingly familiar terms like utility-scale battery energy storage. All of which is to say: they seem like thoroughly conceived and well-executed projections, with nothing obviously squirrely happening in the scaling or anything like that (#pythonistas).
A delayed shift to nickel-rich chemistries (and away from cobalt-rich chemistries) results in nearly 50% higher demand for cobalt and manganese in 2040 compared to the base case. Nickel demand is 5% lower in 2040 compared to the base case.
The faster uptake of lithium metal anodes and ASSB results in 22% higher lithium demand in 2040 compared to the base case, but also much lower demand for graphite (down 44%) and silicon (down 33%).
Moving rapidly towards a silicon-rich anode results in nearly three times as much silicon demand in 2030 compared to the base case, and a slight decrease in graphite demand (down 6%). By 2040 silicon demand is only 70% higher, owing to a higher adoption of silicon-rich anodes even in the base case.
So, there’s more demand for stuff that’s mined. That means there will be more mines, and more mining, but not necessarily more people willing to go down into those mines. That labor shortage, coupled with stricter safety regulations and the increasing threat of high-dollar lawsuits resulting from workplace injuries, practically invites more automation into the space.
The remote locations of mines and the repetitive nature of the work also invites automation. “A mining vehicle typically travels the same route or makes the same movements over the course of the day, such as digging and loading material into a vehicle,” writes Sara Jensen, at Power & Motion. “This aids the design of an autonomous system because there are known patterns which can be more easily integrated compared to the varied drive cycles of on-road vehicles.”
Big players spending big money
It should come as no surprise, then, that the race is on to bring practical, electric, and autonomous heavy mining equipment to market. At CES this past year, autonomous electric equipment from Hyundai, Bobcat, Volvo CE, and Caterpillar garnered lots of attention with their innovative concepts (above) – and for good reason.
IDTechEx estimates a single 150-ton haul truck can use over $850,000 worth of fuel in a single year. Meanwhile, big electric haul trucks like this 240 ton unit from Caterpillar can, in certain use cases with high amounts of regenerative braking, operate without any significant cost to recharge. At that point, the reduced maintenance and downtime of BEVs compared to diesel vehicles becomes icing on the TCO cake.
All of which makes that 4.1% growth number from Allied seem conservative, at best.
SOURCES: Allied Market Research, IEA, Power Motion; other sources linked in post.
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Kenworth has announced the addition of Bendix’ Fusion advanced driver assist system (ADAS) to its line of options on the T680 line of Class 8 commercial semi trucks – a lineup that includes the Next Generation T680E battery electric semi truck.
One of the many new trucks revealed at the 2025 ACT Expo in Anaheim, California earlier this year, the Next Generation Kenworth T680E featured the latest advancements in battery-electric technology, an enhanced exterior design, and a suite of new, in-cab technology that extends to the addition of three Bendix Fusion version: ADAS, ADAS PRO, and ADAS PREMIER.
All three of the announced ADAS packages offer updated Adaptive Cruise Control (ACC) with ACC Stop and Auto Go™, a new Pedestrian Autonomous Emergency Braking (PAEB) feature, and a new High Beam Assist feature to reduce the likelihood of blinding oncoming drivers supported by the addition of a new forward-looking camera.
Those updates are in addition to the ADAS units Autonomous Emergency Braking (AEB), Multi-Lane Autonomous Emergency Braking, Highway Departure Braking (HDB), and Stationary Vehicle Braking (SVB), Lane Departure Warning, and Bendix® Blindspotter® Side Object Detection already available on previous versions of the ADAS-equipped Kenworth.
Kenworth migital mirrors
Now that we’ve got that acronym-loaded word-salad out of the way, we can get to the point: the newest generation of electric trucks is easier and safer to drive – and not just safer for the truck’s operators, but for the people who share the roads with them, too.
Kenworth T680E electric semi
The Next-Generation T680E is available with up to 605 peak hp and 1,850 lb-ft of torque from a PACCAR Integrated ePowertrain fed from a 500 kWh li-ion battery pack good for more than 200 miles of loaded range. The updated Class 8 BEV is rated up to 82,000 lb. gross vehicle weight ratings (GVWR), and can get that load back up to speed quickly with a 350 kW peak charge rate that means the T680E can charge up to 90% in just two hours.
That system isn’t just more efficient than the first generation truck, it’s also more serviceable than it was before.
“This move to a fully integrated and ground-up PACCAR design means we were able to design for enhanced serviceability,” explains Joe Adams, Kenworth’s chief engineer. “Providing easier access to the Master Service Disconnects for improved safety and increased uptime and allowing the use of the DAVIE service tool for troubleshooting and diagnostics.”
The Next Generation Kenworth T680E electric semi truck is designed for short and regional-haul, LTL, and drayage operations. It’s available as a day cab as either a tractor or straight truck in a 6×4 axle configuration.
SOURCE | IMAGES: Kenworth; via Kenworth.
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Just like it says on the tin – retailers are advertising killer deals on the fun-to-drive Kia Niro EV, with one midwest auto dealer reporting more than $10,000 off the sticker price of the Niro EV Wind. That’s nearly 25% off the top line price!
SKIP THE STORY: get straight to the deals.
The Kia Niro EV gets overshadowed by its objectively excellent EV6 and EV9 stablemates – both of which are currently available with substantial lease cash and 0% APR financing, in fact – but that doesn’t mean it’s not an excellent little electric runabout in its own right.
The last time I had a Niro EV tester, my kids loved it, I liked that it was quicker and more tossable than I expected it to be, and my wife liked the fact that “it doesn’t look electric. It looks normal.” And, with well over 200 miles of real world range (EPA-rated range is 253 miles), it was more than up to the task of commuting around Chicago and making the trip up to the Great Wolf Lodge in Gurnee and back without even needing to look for a charger.
It’s not the primary family hauler I’d choose – but as a second car? As a primary car for a slightly smaller family (1-2 kids, instead of 3-4)? The Kia Niro EV Wind, with a $42,470 MSRP, seems like a solid, “can’t go wrong” sort of choice. You know?
You won’t even have to pay that much, though. Raymond Kia in Antioch, Illinois is advertising a $42,470 Niro EV for $32,431 (that’s $10,039, or about 24% off the MSRP), and several others are advertising prices in the $33,000 range.
And, while we’re at it:
Kia Niro EV gallery
SOURCE | IMAGES: CarsDirect, Edmunds, Raymond Kia.
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