Labour on course for 200-seat majority and Tories to have fewest MPs ever, new poll shows
Labour are on course for a majority of 200 according to a new YouGov projection, which also suggests the Tories will slump to their lowest number of seats at an election since the party’s formation in 1834.
If this projection is replicated when the country goes to the polls on 4 July, Labour would have the second largest majority since the Second World War.
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This is the second of three polling projections of this election campaign by YouGov, which Sky News has partnered with for the election. It uses a modelling technique known as MRP.
The latest poll suggests Labour are on course for a majority that is six seats larger than their initial projection on 3 June, which suggested a majority of 194.
If this and other MRP polls are accurate, it suggests Britain is on the cusp of a fundamental redrawing of the political landscape.
The projection suggests Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives would plummet to 108 seats – down from the 365 won by Boris Johnson in the 2019 election.
This would break all historical records, putting the Tories well below their previous low of 141 seats in 1906 under Arthur Balfour.
It puts Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour on course for a commanding 425 seats, more than double the 202 seats won in the 2019 election and beats all previous records for Labour since the party was founded at the start of the last century.
Sir Tony Blair won a peak of 418 seats in 1997.
The Liberal Democrats would win 67 seats under this projection, a huge six times the number of seats they won in 2019.
This would be the highest number since the formation of the Lib Dems, a record previously set in 2005 when Charles Kennedy was leader.
Meanwhile, John Swinney’s SNP are projected to drop to 20 seats under this projection, down from the 48 won by Nicola Sturgeon in the last general election.
Nigel Farage’s Reform party is on course for five seats, the Greens on two seats and Plaid Cymru on four seats.
Since 3 June, when the last YouGov MRP was published, the pollster has changed its calls in 59 seats.
The Tories have dropped 32 seats since, Labour has gained three seats in this projection, while the Lib Dems are up 19, SNP up three and Plaid up two.
Reform wins five seats under the new projection, having previously been on course to win none according to YouGov. This includes Mr Farage winning his seat in Clacton.
Big name losses projected
The MRP poll also means big name losers on election night.
Some 15 of 27 cabinet members still standing in the election are set to lose, according to this projection.
The new cabinet casualties are Victoria Atkins, the health secretary, Lucy Frazer, the culture secretary, Richard Holden, the Conservative Party chair and Michael Tomlinson, who attends cabinet as an immigration minister.
This adds to Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, Grant Shapps, the defence secretary and Penny Mordaunt, the leader of the Commons.
Some 29 of the 45 ministers running in this election are projected to lose, including Steve Baker, the Northern Ireland minister, Chris Philp, the crime minister, Anne-Marie Trevelyan, the foreign office minister and Greg Hands, the trade minister.
Other notable Tory casualties include Robert Jenrick in Newark and Caroline Nokes in Romsey and Southampton North.
One Labour shadow cabinet member, Thangam Debbonaire, is still set to lose her Bristol West seat to the Greens.
Some 109 seats are still listed as a “tossup”.
If all tossup and close races in every seat where Conservatives are second went in their favour, rather than in the direction assumed in this poll, then Labour would still have a majority of 132. The Conservatives in that scenario would win 153 seats – still their lowest on record and far below what Labour won in 2019 under Jeremy Corbyn.
The projection vote shares, implied by this MRP, are Labour on 39%, the Tories on 22%, Reform on 15%, Lib Dems on 12% and Greens on 7%.
This means the Labour majority and seat tally have both gone up, even though Labour’s implied vote share is down three points since the start of June. The big winners are Reform, up from 10% to 15% and the Lib Dems, up from 11% to 12%.
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The polling for the projection was conducted from last Tuesday until this Tuesday with 39,979 people interviewed online: 36,161 in England and Wales and 3,818 in Scotland.
It suggests the Conservatives would be a party predominantly of the south east, south west and east of England. The party risks an all or near wipe out in the north east, in Wales and the north west.
UK
‘A catastrophic scandal’: Inside the tower block so dangerous residents face being kicked out at any moment
The moment we step into Willow Rise, the smell of damp is overpowering.
There are water stains across the carpet and rotten wood on the doors.
Around the corner, there’s a hole in the wall, barely patched up with a piece of polystyrene sheet.
We’re meeting a resident on the 13th floor of the building in Kirkby, Merseyside – but the lifts are broken and wires hang out of the service panel.
Like everyone living here, we will have to walk.
The disrepair in this block is everywhere you look.
Damp staining and ceiling damage around the block
It has now been deemed so unsafe by Merseyside Fire and Rescue Service that they are days away from serving a rare prohibition notice on this tower and its neighbour, Beech Rise, meaning residents will have to leave with immediate effect.
In total, 160 households here face instant homelessness.
After climbing 13 flights of stairs, we meet Chris Penfold-Ivany.
‘A catastrophic scandal’
He has terminal cancer, and after chemotherapy and a liver transplant, that climb is now the only way he can get up to his flat.
Chris Penfold-Ivany warns ‘this is another Grenfell in the making’
He tells us it’s making him breathless. He can no longer get his prescriptions delivered, as the drivers won’t come up all the stairs.
“It’s a catastrophic scandal that we have been left like this,” he says.
He has lived in this flat for 15 years and has watched the block slowly begin to fall apart over the last decade.
He tells us that numerous complaints have achieved nothing. “I’m going to say it,” he says, “this is another Grenfell in the making.”
‘Nobody can live like this‘
A few floors down, Arunee Leerasiri opens the door to us, in floods of tears.
The stress of the last few weeks has left her anxious and overwhelmed. There are boxes everywhere, bare hooks on the walls where pictures hung.
She is packing up her life just three years after putting her life savings into buying this flat.
Arunee Leerasiri says she doesn’t even recognise her flat as her home anymore
Her elderly mother has come to visit, but she had to hire removal men already to take her mattress into storage as she couldn’t manage without the lifts.
Tonight, and until they are told they must leave, they will sleep on the floor.
“I can’t eat, I can’t sleep,” she tells us, through tears. “Sometimes, if I’m honest, I can’t even think. This used to be my home, and now I look around and I don’t even recognise it.”
“Nobody can live like this,” she adds.
‘Danger, 415 volts’
Water damage around electrical equipment, including a ‘Danger high voltage’ labelled box
She shows us a video she filmed just a few weeks ago, of one of the electrical risers on the ground floor.
None of us can quite believe what we are seeing – water is pouring through the ceiling, directly on to fuse boxes and electrical wiring.
Arunee takes us down to show us the cupboard. The water has now stopped but there are damp stains all over the floor and around the electrical equipment.
The water pipes and electric boxes are just inches away from one another within the cupboard.
One of the boxes, marked ‘Danger, 415 volts’, is rusted through.
Next to it, there is a notice stuck to a resident’s door telling them a leak has been identified in their flat – and as a leaseholder, they will be responsible for paying to fix it.
“Tell me, how is this safe?” Arunee says. “Why is this building allowed to be open for the public, as a dwelling, with this kind of set-up?”
A hole in a wall patched up with polystyrene
Hidden owners and a plea to the government
Merseyside Fire and Rescue tell us they have been serving enforcement notices on the building managers for years, to no avail.
They have now been told there is no money for the millions of pounds worth of repairs that will be needed to bring the blocks up to a safe standard.
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They have mandated a ‘waking watch’, where teams physically patrol the buildings daily to check for fire risks, without which they will serve the prohibition notice and tell residents they must leave straight away.
Knowsley Council has stepped in to pay for this temporarily – at a cost of £3,000 per day.
Their deputy leader tells us, though, that the money will soon run out.
Willow Rise and Beech Rise Towers in Merseyside have both been condemned by the fire service
Where to go?
With a complex management structure and several owners, managers and agents over the years, the council says it doesn’t even know who is to blame for the disrepair – or who even has the legal responsibility for maintaining the buildings.
It says discussions are ongoing with central government about whether any extra help – or money – can be provided to try to fix the mess.
Right now though, all the residents can do is wait.
With no date to leave and no idea if anything can be done to keep the buildings open, they are spending every day fearing the call to tell them they have to go.
They can only hope there will be somewhere for them if they do.
Reform UK chairman Zia Yusuf has reversed his decision to quit the party, saying “the mission is too important” and that he “cannot let people down”.
Instead, he said he will return in a new role, heading up an Elon Musk-inspired “UK DOGE” team.
In a statement, he said: “Over the last 24 hours I have received a huge number of lovely and heartfelt messages from people who have expressed their dismay at my resignation, urging me to reconsider.”
He added: “I know the mission is too important and I cannot let people down.
“So, I will be continuing my work with Reform, my commitment redoubled.”
Mr Yusuf said he would be returning in a new role, seemingly focusing on cuts and efficiency within government.
He said he would “fight for taxpayers”.
Only two days prior, Mr Yusuf dramatically handed in his resignation.
He claimed he no longer thought getting a Reform government elected was a “good use of my time” – but has now seemingly changed his mind.
Reform UK leader Nigel Farage welcomed the news of Mr Yusuf’s return.
He said: “I am delighted that Zia Yusuf will head up Reform UK’s DOGE department.”
Nigel Farage welcomed Zia Yusuf’s return. File pic: PA
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Mr Yusuf’s initial decision to quit came after he publicly distanced himself from the party’s new MP, Sarah Pochin, when she asked Sir Keir Starmer about banning the burka at Prime Minister’s Questions.
Reform said a ban was not party policy – and the chairman called it a “dumb” thing to ask.
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What is DOGE?
DOGE is a meme-coin inspired creation of Musk’s, standing for the Department of Government Efficiency.
It is the latest right-wing US import into British politics.
Before his public fallout with Donald Trump, the tech billionaire said his focus was saving taxpayers’ money by locating wasteful spending within government and cutting it.
Read more: How Elon Musk’s mission to cut government spending fell flat
However, opposition politicians questioned the impact of his efforts and how much he actually saved.
Musk initially had ambitions to slash government spending by $2trn (£1.5trn) – but this was dramatically reduced to $1trn (£750bn) and then to just $150bn (£111bn).
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