Labour on course for 200-seat majority and Tories to have fewest MPs ever, new poll shows

Published

10 months ago

June 19, 2024

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Labour are on course for a majority of 200 according to a new YouGov projection, which also suggests the Tories will slump to their lowest number of seats at an election since the party’s formation in 1834.

If this projection is replicated when the country goes to the polls on 4 July, Labour would have the second largest majority since the Second World War.

Election latest: Starmer’s wife says protest outside home made her feel ‘sick’

This is the second of three polling projections of this election campaign by YouGov, which Sky News has partnered with for the election. It uses a modelling technique known as MRP.

The latest poll suggests Labour are on course for a majority that is six seats larger than their initial projection on 3 June, which suggested a majority of 194.

If this and other MRP polls are accurate, it suggests Britain is on the cusp of a fundamental redrawing of the political landscape.

The projection suggests Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives would plummet to 108 seats – down from the 365 won by Boris Johnson in the 2019 election.

This would break all historical records, putting the Tories well below their previous low of 141 seats in 1906 under Arthur Balfour.

It puts Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour on course for a commanding 425 seats, more than double the 202 seats won in the 2019 election and beats all previous records for Labour since the party was founded at the start of the last century.

Sir Tony Blair won a peak of 418 seats in 1997.

The Liberal Democrats would win 67 seats under this projection, a huge six times the number of seats they won in 2019.

This would be the highest number since the formation of the Lib Dems, a record previously set in 2005 when Charles Kennedy was leader.

Meanwhile, John Swinney’s SNP are projected to drop to 20 seats under this projection, down from the 48 won by Nicola Sturgeon in the last general election.

Nigel Farage’s Reform party is on course for five seats, the Greens on two seats and Plaid Cymru on four seats.

Since 3 June, when the last YouGov MRP was published, the pollster has changed its calls in 59 seats.

The Tories have dropped 32 seats since, Labour has gained three seats in this projection, while the Lib Dems are up 19, SNP up three and Plaid up two.

Reform wins five seats under the new projection, having previously been on course to win none according to YouGov. This includes Mr Farage winning his seat in Clacton.

Big name losses projected

The MRP poll also means big name losers on election night.

Some 15 of 27 cabinet members still standing in the election are set to lose, according to this projection.

The new cabinet casualties are Victoria Atkins, the health secretary, Lucy Frazer, the culture secretary, Richard Holden, the Conservative Party chair and Michael Tomlinson, who attends cabinet as an immigration minister.

This adds to Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, Grant Shapps, the defence secretary and Penny Mordaunt, the leader of the Commons.

Some 29 of the 45 ministers running in this election are projected to lose, including Steve Baker, the Northern Ireland minister, Chris Philp, the crime minister, Anne-Marie Trevelyan, the foreign office minister and Greg Hands, the trade minister.

Other notable Tory casualties include Robert Jenrick in Newark and Caroline Nokes in Romsey and Southampton North.

One Labour shadow cabinet member, Thangam Debbonaire, is still set to lose her Bristol West seat to the Greens.

What is an MRP poll?

You might come across the term MRP quite a lot in the coming weeks as we head towards the general election on 4 July.

An MRP poll – which stands for multilevel regression and post-stratification – is a type of poll that gets pundits excited because it draws from large amounts of data, including a large sample size and additional information like locations.

MRP polls first ask a large representative sample of people how they will vote. They then use that information of how different groups say they will vote combined with information about the sorts of people who live in different constituencies. This allows the pollster to estimate how people will vote in each constituency across the country – even when they may have surveyed just a few people, or even none, in some places.

This can then be broken down into smaller groups to see how voters in different areas say they plan to vote. Rather than making more generalised assumptions that everyone behaves the same way in different constituencies, it takes into account the fact that every constituency is its own race and local issues and trends may be at play.

What MRP can’t do is account for very specific local factors – such as a hospital or large employer closing down in a constituency, or a scandal relating to a particular candidate.

It still involves a lot of assumptions and estimates – and some races are too close to call with any level of certainty. It also only gives a snapshot of people’s opinions, and a lot can change over the course of an election campaign. However, it does give us a more nuanced idea about what the general election result could be than other more generic polls.

Some 109 seats are still listed as a “tossup”.

If all tossup and close races in every seat where Conservatives are second went in their favour, rather than in the direction assumed in this poll, then Labour would still have a majority of 132. The Conservatives in that scenario would win 153 seats – still their lowest on record and far below what Labour won in 2019 under Jeremy Corbyn.

The projection vote shares, implied by this MRP, are Labour on 39%, the Tories on 22%, Reform on 15%, Lib Dems on 12% and Greens on 7%.

This means the Labour majority and seat tally have both gone up, even though Labour’s implied vote share is down three points since the start of June. The big winners are Reform, up from 10% to 15% and the Lib Dems, up from 11% to 12%.

The polling for the projection was conducted from last Tuesday until this Tuesday with 39,979 people interviewed online: 36,161 in England and Wales and 3,818 in Scotland.

It suggests the Conservatives would be a party predominantly of the south east, south west and east of England. The party risks an all or near wipe out in the north east, in Wales and the north west.

UK

Chelsea fans condemn ‘unethical’ ticket resale site – which club chairman invests in

Published

3 hours ago

April 21, 2025

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Chelsea fans condemn 'unethical' ticket resale site - which club chairman invests in

Premier League match tickets at Chelsea have been selling for more than twice the price of a season ticket on an American exchange website with a familiar director and investor to supporters – club chairman Todd Boehly.

Amid growing fan fury, Sky News was able to access the Vivid Seats platform on different devices last week from London – and saw tickets for the visit of Liverpool on 4 May, priced by Chelsea at a maximum of £80, being sold for between £537 and £2,666.

Some tickets were listed as being sold by traders.

Chelsea’s official website appeared to show no availability for this premium fixture, with the Blues battling for Champions League qualification and Liverpool potentially celebrating being crowned Premier League winners.

The most expensive Stamford Bridge season ticket for this campaign was £1,015.

Vivid is listed by the Premier League among “unauthorised ticket websites” with a message: “We would urge fans to exercise extreme caution when dealing with these websites.”

The Chelsea Supporters’ Trust has written to the Premier League to ask that Vivid – given its ties with a club’s shareholder – “ceases facilitating the sale of tickets for significantly above face value”.

Mr Boehly – part of the consortium that replaced Roman Abramovich as owner in 2022 – has not addressed accusations of a “conflict of interest” or claims he is undermining efforts to combat ticket touting.

There are anti-touting warnings on signs in the streets approaching the stadium.

An official Chelsea Ticket Exchange allows season ticket holders to sell their tickets “at the pro-rata price of season tickets” to a club member “in a safe, secure environment”.

While Chelsea’s website says to only buy tickets in the UK from official sellers, it adds: “Many of the websites that advertise and sell tickets online are not within the jurisdiction of UK law.

“This means, while we report these sites when we see Chelsea tickets on them, there is little we can do to shut down the sites.”

On Vivid, we did see warnings telling visiting users not to buy seats in the home sections and a pop-up eventually appeared after browsing the availability, saying: “Tickets for the EPL matches are not currently available for purchase in your location.”

No attempt was made by us to buy tickets. But should we have been able to see the listings at all?

Sky News first asked for comment from Vivid last Monday and continued to see ticket listings with variable prices in pounds during the week. It took until Friday night for any form of response.

“Vivid Seats respectfully adheres to the laws that are in place in the United Kingdom and is not in violation of any regulations around EPL tickets,” the email read in part. “As such, Vivid Seats’ policy restricts the sale and marketing of EPL tickets in the United Kingdom.”

When Sky News checked the website again on Saturday the listings for Premier League matches were no longer visible as they are from outside of Britain.

Asked if they were no longer visible after our inquiries, Vivid’s official replied: “The conclusions that you are drawing are factually incorrect.

“We understand that people will try to find ways to circumvent technology and as such, we have validation protocols in place in order to restrict the sale and marketing of EPL tickets in the United Kingdom.”

Again, Vivid insisted it adheres to laws and regulations in Britain.

But the same official did not respond to an email detailing how we were able to view the tickets listings from London on separate days, without using VPN software that can make your browser seem as if it’s accessing the internet from another country.

‘It’s the only way I was going to get here’

Ticket exchange websites can be the only way for some fans overseas to come to matches.

When Ipswich played at Stamford Bridge on 13 April, Baz Gillespie was able to watch after 20 years living in Cyprus by paying a vastly-inflated £300 for two tickets on a website other than Vivid.

“The only way I was going to get here was that way,” he said, remembering the days he could just queue up and pay a fiver for a ticket.

The same match was Martin van Dijk’s first-ever game at the Bridge, having come from the Netherlands after paying €150 (£128) on another exchange website after initially trying through Vivid.

“If there’s no other option, and you want to visit, it’s the only way, but I’d rather get it through like the normal way,” he said.

‘An absolute disgrace’

It is the “normal way” that so many supporters want to protect and are aghast at Mr Boehly’s links to Vivid, predating his purchase of a stake in Chelsea.

“It’s an absolute disgrace,” supporter Ben Grey said. “He shouldn’t be involved in Chelsea and a reselling website. It’s unethical from a basic perspective.

“The club are coming out with communication saying that they’re against ticket reselling and our semi-majority shareholder [has a website] reselling tickets to our games.”

Asked what the Premier League should do, he replied: “I’m a massive Chelsea fan, I don’t want Chelsea to be hit hard by anything.

“But the fact of the matter is they need to sort that out and if they’re allowing there to be an owner of a club who’s reselling tickets, it’s a disgrace.”

‘Not a very good look’

Another fan, Rich Still, called it “21st century greed”.

The issue is resonating with young children.

Rhys Edwards, watching with his father, said: “It doesn’t look too good on Chelsea and their owners to be fair.

“Saying that [the website] is not authorised by the league they’re playing in isn’t a very good look.”

Officials with Chelsea, the Premier League and Mr Boehly declined to comment.

The Vivid statement to Sky News stressed: “It is important to note that Vivid Seats does not set the base price for tickets sold on its marketplace or receive any revenue from that base price; only the seller sets and receives the base ticket price.”

‘It’s like the Wild West’

Vivid highlighted to Sky News its “long-standing partnership”, including being a backer of a 2023 summer tour of the United States.

Chelsea’s website featured a quote saying: “We are pleased to join with a company committed to becoming the ultimate partner for connecting fans to the live events, teams and artists they love.”

The government has launched a consultation to prevent people from being ripped off in Britain by the resale of tickets.

The limit could range from the cost of the original ticket to a 30% uplift to stop the public being “fleeced” by professional touts.

Labour MP for Ealing Central and Acton, Rupa Huq, has separately proposed a change to the law to improve pricing transparency on secondary ticketing sites.

“It’s an unregulated market,” she told Sky News. “It’s like the Wild West. It needs getting back into control.”

UK

Woman stabbed to death in Enfield, north London

Published

3 hours ago

April 21, 2025

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Woman stabbed to death in Enfield, north London

A murder investigation is under way after a woman was stabbed to death in north London.

Police were called to an address in Ayley Croft, Enfield, around 7pm on Saturday following reports of a stabbing.

Emergency workers treated a 45-year-old woman but she died at the scene, the Metropolitan Police said.

The victim’s next of kin has been informed and is being supported by specialist officers.

No one has been arrested in connection with her death.

Police have been seen focusing on Gainsborough House, a high-rise block on the estate.

An officer was spotted at the window on the fifth floor. Patrols have also been seen outside.

Detective Chief Inspector Neil John said: “Our thoughts are with the victim’s family at this difficult time.

“As our investigation continues, there will be an increased police presence in the area, and a crime scene remains in place.

“We understand this will be very distressing to the local community and anyone who has concerns can speak to local officers.”

Police are appealing for dashcam footage from anyone who was driving through Ayley Croft between 6.30pm and 7.30pm on Saturday.

UK

Ranked: Britain’s 10 worst airports for flight delays

Published

3 hours ago

April 21, 2025

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Ranked: Britain's 10 worst airports for flight delays

Gatwick is the UK’s worst airport for flight delays for the second year running, according to new data from the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA).

After suffering from continued air traffic control (ATC) disruptions, departures from the West Sussex airport were delayed by more than 23 minutes on average in 2024.

In 2023, its flights were delayed by nearly 27 minutes – so the airport, which is the UK’s second busiest, has seen an improvement.

A spokesperson said the airport had a “robust plan” to improve things further in 2025, including a new method to separate arriving aircraft, and trialling the co-ordination of connecting jet bridges to planes remotely.

They said Gatwick remains “the world’s most efficient single-runway airport, with flights departing or arriving every 55 seconds”.

Gatwick was badly impacted by ATC staff shortages both in Europe and in its own control tower last year, which a 2024 report by the Royal Aeronautical Society suggested may be in part due to the pandemic.

It said staffing was reduced because of a downturn in traffic during lockdowns, and recruiting and training new ATC workers can take up to three years.

Julia Lo Bue-Said, chief executive of Advantage Travel Partnership, a network of independent travel agents, said passengers should expect better than “stuck in terminals” for hours “with little information or support”.

UK’s top ten worst airports for delays – ranked

10 – Cardiff Airport

Cardiff had average delays of 17 minutes and 36 seconds.

9 – Luton Airport

Luton recorded average delays of 17 minutes and 42 seconds in 2024.

That was an improvement on the year before, with the airport recording delays of nearly 23 minutes in 2023.

8 – Bournemouth Airport

Bournemouth also saw an improvement.

Despite recording average delays of 17 minutes and 48 seconds, it saw around a two-and-a-half minute improvement on the year before.

7 – Edinburgh Airport

Scotland’s busiest airport had average delays of 18 minutes and six seconds in 2024.

That was an improvement of nearly three-and-a-half minutes from the 12 months previous.

6 – Exeter Airport

Exeter, on the other hand, saw growing delays in 2024.

Last year’s data showed average delays of 15 minutes and 42 seconds at the airport.

In 2024, that figure jumped to 19 minutes.

5 – Teesside International Airport

Teesside also recorded longer delays of around two minutes on average.

In 2024, its departing flights were delayed by an average of 19 minutes and six seconds.

4 – Stansted Airport

Stansted recorded average delays of 19 minutes and 36 seconds in 2024, a 30-second increase on the previous year.

3 – Manchester Airport

The UK’s third-busiest airport came third on the list with average delays of 20 minutes last year.

In 2023, its delays were longer by nearly two minutes.

2 – Birmingham Airport

Birmingham saw delays of 21 minutes and 18 seconds.

Despite moving up the list, it improved its delay time by 12 seconds on the year before.

1 – Gatwick Airport

Gatwick Airport recorded delays of 23 minutes and 18 seconds, an improvement of over three minutes and 36 seconds.

At the other end of the table…

Belfast City airport recorded the best punctuality in the UK for the second year in a row.

Its typical delay per flight was less than 12 minutes.

The average delay for flights from major UK airports was 18 minutes and 24 seconds in 2024, down from 20 minutes and 42 seconds in 2023.

“Aviation continues to recover from the pandemic, and operates in an extremely busy, global environment with resilience challenges,” said a spokesperson for trade body AirportsUK.

“It is therefore positive that the data shows delays continue to come down as everyone in aviation works together to provide the best possible service to passengers.”