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Labour are on course for a majority of 200 according to a new YouGov projection, which also suggests the Tories will slump to their lowest number of seats at an election since the party’s formation in 1834.

If this projection is replicated when the country goes to the polls on 4 July, Labour would have the second largest majority since the Second World War.

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This is the second of three polling projections of this election campaign by YouGov, which Sky News has partnered with for the election. It uses a modelling technique known as MRP.

House of Commons seat projection from second Sky/YouGov MRP

The latest poll suggests Labour are on course for a majority that is six seats larger than their initial projection on 3 June, which suggested a majority of 194.

If this and other MRP polls are accurate, it suggests Britain is on the cusp of a fundamental redrawing of the political landscape.

The projection suggests Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives would plummet to 108 seats – down from the 365 won by Boris Johnson in the 2019 election.

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This would break all historical records, putting the Tories well below their previous low of 141 seats in 1906 under Arthur Balfour.

It puts Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour on course for a commanding 425 seats, more than double the 202 seats won in the 2019 election and beats all previous records for Labour since the party was founded at the start of the last century.

Sir Tony Blair won a peak of 418 seats in 1997.

Labour could be on track for a 200 seat majority

The Liberal Democrats would win 67 seats under this projection, a huge six times the number of seats they won in 2019.

This would be the highest number since the formation of the Lib Dems, a record previously set in 2005 when Charles Kennedy was leader.

Meanwhile, John Swinney’s SNP are projected to drop to 20 seats under this projection, down from the 48 won by Nicola Sturgeon in the last general election.

Nigel Farage’s Reform party is on course for five seats, the Greens on two seats and Plaid Cymru on four seats.

Vote share projections from second YouGov MRP put Labour on 39%, 18 points up on the Conservatives

Since 3 June, when the last YouGov MRP was published, the pollster has changed its calls in 59 seats.

The Tories have dropped 32 seats since, Labour has gained three seats in this projection, while the Lib Dems are up 19, SNP up three and Plaid up two.

Reform wins five seats under the new projection, having previously been on course to win none according to YouGov. This includes Mr Farage winning his seat in Clacton.

Big name losses projected

The MRP poll also means big name losers on election night.

Some 15 of 27 cabinet members still standing in the election are set to lose, according to this projection.

The new cabinet casualties are Victoria Atkins, the health secretary, Lucy Frazer, the culture secretary, Richard Holden, the Conservative Party chair and Michael Tomlinson, who attends cabinet as an immigration minister.

This adds to Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, Grant Shapps, the defence secretary and Penny Mordaunt, the leader of the Commons.

Some 29 of the 45 ministers running in this election are projected to lose, including Steve Baker, the Northern Ireland minister, Chris Philp, the crime minister, Anne-Marie Trevelyan, the foreign office minister and Greg Hands, the trade minister.

Other notable Tory casualties include Robert Jenrick in Newark and Caroline Nokes in Romsey and Southampton North.

One Labour shadow cabinet member, Thangam Debbonaire, is still set to lose her Bristol West seat to the Greens.

What is an MRP poll?

You might come across the term MRP quite a lot in the coming weeks as we head towards the general election on 4 July.

An MRP poll – which stands for multilevel regression and post-stratification – is a type of poll that gets pundits excited because it draws from large amounts of data, including a large sample size and additional information like locations.

MRP polls first ask a large representative sample of people how they will vote. They then use that information of how different groups say they will vote combined with information about the sorts of people who live in different constituencies. This allows the pollster to estimate how people will vote in each constituency across the country – even when they may have surveyed just a few people, or even none, in some places.

This can then be broken down into smaller groups to see how voters in different areas say they plan to vote. Rather than making more generalised assumptions that everyone behaves the same way in different constituencies, it takes into account the fact that every constituency is its own race and local issues and trends may be at play.

What MRP can’t do is account for very specific local factors – such as a hospital or large employer closing down in a constituency, or a scandal relating to a particular candidate.

It still involves a lot of assumptions and estimates – and some races are too close to call with any level of certainty. It also only gives a snapshot of people’s opinions, and a lot can change over the course of an election campaign. However, it does give us a more nuanced idea about what the general election result could be than other more generic polls.

Some 109 seats are still listed as a “tossup”.

If all tossup and close races in every seat where Conservatives are second went in their favour, rather than in the direction assumed in this poll, then Labour would still have a majority of 132. The Conservatives in that scenario would win 153 seats – still their lowest on record and far below what Labour won in 2019 under Jeremy Corbyn.

The projection vote shares, implied by this MRP, are Labour on 39%, the Tories on 22%, Reform on 15%, Lib Dems on 12% and Greens on 7%.

The Conservatives are 32 seats worse off compared with the last YouGov MRP

This means the Labour majority and seat tally have both gone up, even though Labour’s implied vote share is down three points since the start of June. The big winners are Reform, up from 10% to 15% and the Lib Dems, up from 11% to 12%.

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The polling for the projection was conducted from last Tuesday until this Tuesday with 39,979 people interviewed online: 36,161 in England and Wales and 3,818 in Scotland.

It suggests the Conservatives would be a party predominantly of the south east, south west and east of England. The party risks an all or near wipe out in the north east, in Wales and the north west.

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Lucy Hargreaves was shot dead in 2005 – her home set on fire. A suspect in her murder is still at large

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Lucy Hargreaves was shot dead in 2005 - her home set on fire. A suspect in her murder is still at large

Britain’s most-wanted fugitive is still on the run – exactly 20 years after the fatal shooting of a young mother of three.

Kevin Parle is a suspect in the murder of Lucy Hargreaves, 22, who was shot dead at her home in Liverpool before the house was set on fire on 3 August 2005.

Since then, after many appeals for information, there has been no confirmed sighting, word or trace of him.

Two decades on, Ms Hargreaves’ family have had no justice. Two young men prosecuted for her murder had charges dropped when a judge ruled there was insufficient evidence against them.

In a statement marking the anniversary of her death, they said: “The way we lost Lucy is not something families can ever truly come to terms with – it is still incredibly difficult and painful to think about.

“Over the past 20 years, people will have talked with family and friends. A number of people were contacted by males using a phone that was stolen along with a vehicle used in Lucy’s murder.

“We appeal directly to them to please come forward. Now is the time.”

Kevin Parle age progression prediction pics
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Police prediction of how Kevin Parle has aged since 2005. Pic: Merseyside Police

Three men burst into Lucy’s home 20 years ago today, shot her dead as she slept on a sofa, and set alight the duvet she’d been sleeping under.

It’s believed the gang were looking for her boyfriend Gary Campbell, who was upstairs. He fled from a window with their two-year-old daughter and then tried in vain to save Ms Hargreaves.

Mr Campbell had allegedly been a passenger in a stolen car that had hit and killed a young boy 12 years earlier, supposedly the motive for the shooting. He denied he was in the car at the time.

Lucy Hargreaves with her three children
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Ms Hargreaves with her three children

Howard Rubbery, head of the Serious Crime Review Unit at Merseyside Police said: “The family remain absolutely devastated by Lucy’s death.

“It’s important to note Lucy is an absolutely innocent victim. She’s not from a family of criminality. She wasn’t involved in criminality.

“The hunt for Kevin Parle is very much on, and we ask anybody with information, anybody who is close to Parle and knows where he is, to please come forward.

“There were three males responsible for this offence and we are looking for justice for Lucy’s family in relation to all three.

“I do believe that there are people out there who have yet to speak to the police, even though it’s 20 years on, who hold information that’s absolutely vital to our investigation.”

Police believe Parle, now in his 40s, fled to Spain where he hid among the vast expat community with criminal help.

Several years later, I tracked his movements to a holiday complex near Torrevieja, where staff convinced me he had stayed there for several weeks.

Former Scotland Yard detective Peter Bleksley
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Former detective Peter Bleksley says Parle is being protected

‘Huge value to organised crime’

Former Scotland Yard detective Peter Bleksley, who recently spent four years on a personal hunt for Parle, also visited the complex and said: “He was bold and he was brash and he had a girlfriend at one point.

“The police actually should have captured him there, but they were too late.”

He claimed he nearly caught up with Parle at a villa elsewhere in Spain, but spooked him into disappearing again.

Mr Bleksley hosted an award-winning podcast and wrote a book in which he chronicled his manhunt.

He said: “Kevin Parle has remained hidden because he is funded, protected, looked after and of huge value to global, serious and organised crime.”

Parle can’t be hard to spot – he’s well-built, 6ft 5in tall, red-haired with a face scar and, originally at least, has a Liverpool accent. Of course, he might be dead.

Mr Bleksley said: “I can think of many reasons why certain criminals would want to get rid of Kevin Parle because he could, in terms of evidence about the cases that he’s wanted for, should he flip and become a witness for the Crown, be highly damaging for a lot of very tasty criminals.”

16-year-old Liam Kelly
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16-year-old Liam Kelly was shot dead a year before Ms Hargreaves. Pic: Merseyside Police

Parle is also wanted in connection with the murder of 16-year-old Liam Kelly, who was shot dead over an alleged £200 debt in June 2004, a year before Lucy’s death. Parle was arrested and questioned, but then freed on bail.

There have been reports of the fugitive in Australia and Dubai, but nothing to corroborate any of them.

If he’s alive and if no one is prepared to shop him, what might lead to his capture?

“I think when he has a fallout with those who have guarded him, funded him, fed him, put a roof over his head and all of that, maybe even paid for his plastic surgery that could have altered his appearance,” Mr Bleksley said.

“When he finally has a fallout, when he’s no longer of use, then perhaps that will be the day that somebody goes, Peter, he’s here.”

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Rival groups face off outside migrant hotel – as asylum seekers ‘blow kisses’ at protesters

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Rival groups face off outside migrant hotel - as asylum seekers 'blow kisses' at protesters

Several demonstrators have been detained after rival groups faced off over a hotel accommodating asylum seekers in north London, with police breaking up brief clashes.

The Metropolitan Police has since imposed conditions on the protest and counter-protest outside the Thistle City Barbican Hotel in Islington.

The protest was organised by local residents under the banner “Thistle Barbican needs to go – locals say no”.

The group of several hundred people waved union flags and banners, and one man chanted: “Get these scum off our streets.”

Anti-immigration protesters outside the Thistle City Barbican Hotel in central London, which houses asylum seekers. Pic: PA
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Anti-immigration protesters waved Union Jack flags. Pic: PA

A larger group staged a counter demonstration to voice support for asylum seekers, bearing a banner that read: “Refugees are welcome.”

People inside the hotel, believed to be migrants, watched on, with some waving and blowing kisses from the windows.

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People believed to be asylum seekers waved from the windows of Thistle City Barbican Hotel. Pic: PA
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People believed to be asylum seekers waved the hotel windows. Pic: PA

Pro-immigration protesters gather outside the Thistle City Barbican Hotel in central London, which houses asylum seekers. Pic: PA
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Pro-immigration protesters gathered by the Thistle City Barbican Hotel. Pic: PA

A man wearing an England football shirt was detained by police after getting into an altercation with officers.

There have been nine arrests so far, seven of which were for breaching conditions police put on the protests under the Public Order Act.

Rival groups separated by police

Another protest was scheduled in Newcastle on Saturday, outside The New Bridge Hotel, as anti-migrant sentiment ripples through some communities around the country, also flaring up recently in Epping.

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Last week: Protesters divided over migrant hotels

The counter-protest in London was organised by local branches of Stand Up To Racism, and supported by former Labour leader and Islington North MP Jeremy Corbyn.

Other community groups including Finsbury Park Mosque and Islington Labour Party were also involved.

Groups online that backed the original protest include “Patriots of Britain” and “Together for the Children”.

At one point, a large group of masked protesters dressed in black, calling themselves anti-fascists, appeared from a side street and marched towards the rival group outside the hotel.

The two groups briefly clashed before police rushed in to separate them.

Masked protesters gather outside the Thistle City Barbican Hotel in central London, which houses asylum seekers. Pic: PA
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Pic: PA

Supporters of local protest group "Thistle Barbican needs to go - locals say no" gathering outside the Thistle City Barbican Hotel. Pic: PA
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Supporters of local protest group ‘Thistle Barbican needs to go – locals say no’. Pic: PA

Why are asylum hotels used?

The government is legally required to provide accommodation and subsistence to destitute asylum seekers while their claims are being decided, most of whom are prohibited from working.

A jump in the use of hotels since 2020 has been attributed to the impacts of the COVID pandemic, a backlog in unresolved asylum cases, and an increase in the number of migrants crossing the Channel in small boats.

However, the number of asylum seekers living in hotels has fallen recently, from 38,079 at the end of 2024 to 32,345 at the end of March 2025, according to the Refugee Council.

How police tried to keep groups apart

The police imposed conditions on both groups in London to prevent “serious disorder” and minimise disruption to the community.

Those in the anti-asylum hotel protest were told to remain within King Charles Square, and to gather not before 1pm and wrap up by 4pm.

Those in the counter-protest were to required to stay in an area in Lever Street, and assemble only between 12pm and 4pm, but were still in eye and ear shot of the other group.

Chief Superintendent Clair Haynes, in charge of the policing operation, said: “We have been in discussions with the organisers of both protests in recent days, building on the ongoing engagement between local officers, community groups and partners.

“We understand that there are strongly held views on all sides.

“Our officers will police without fear or favour, ensuring those exercising their right to protest can do so safely, but intervening at the first sign of actions that cross the line into criminality.”

Meanwhile, the protest in Newcastle was promoted by online posts saying it was “for our children, for our future”.

The “stop the far right and fascists in Newcastle” counter-protest was organised by Stand Up To Racism at the nearby Laing Art Gallery.

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Jon Ruben remanded into custody on child cruelty charges after children fell ill at summer camp

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Jon Ruben remanded into custody on child cruelty charges after children fell ill at summer camp

A man has been remanded into custody charged with child cruelty offences after allegedly lacing sweets with sedatives.

Jon Ruben, 76, of Ruddington, Nottinghamshire, appeared at Leicester Magistrates’ Court on Saturday after youngsters fell ill at a summer camp in Stathern, Leicestershire.

He has been charged with three counts of wilfully assaulting, ill-treating, neglecting, abandoning or exposing children in a manner likely to cause them unnecessary suffering or injury to health.

The charges relate to three boys at the camp between 25-29 July.

A general view of the scene in Stathern, Leicestershire, after a 76-year-old man was arrested on suspicion of administering poison at a summ
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The scene in Stathern, Leicestershire. Pic: PA

Ruben spoke only to confirm his name, age and address.

Police received a report of children feeling unwell at a camp being held at Stathern Lodge, near Melton in Leicestershire, last Sunday.

Officers said paramedics attended the scene and eight boys – aged between eight and 11 – were taken to hospital as a precaution, as was an adult. They have since been discharged.

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Police said the “owners and operators of Stathern Lodge are independent from those people who use or hire the lodge and are not connected to the incident”.

Leicestershire Police has referred itself to the Independent Office for Police Conduct, after officers initially reported the incident as having happened on Monday, only to later amend it to Sunday.

It is still unclear when officers responded and whether that is why the watchdog referral has been made.

Ruben will next appear at Leicester Crown Court on 29 August.

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