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Labour are on course for a majority of 200 according to a new YouGov projection, which also suggests the Tories will slump to their lowest number of seats at an election since the party’s formation in 1834.

If this projection is replicated when the country goes to the polls on 4 July, Labour would have the second largest majority since the Second World War.

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This is the second of three polling projections of this election campaign by YouGov, which Sky News has partnered with for the election. It uses a modelling technique known as MRP.

House of Commons seat projection from second Sky/YouGov MRP

The latest poll suggests Labour are on course for a majority that is six seats larger than their initial projection on 3 June, which suggested a majority of 194.

If this and other MRP polls are accurate, it suggests Britain is on the cusp of a fundamental redrawing of the political landscape.

The projection suggests Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives would plummet to 108 seats – down from the 365 won by Boris Johnson in the 2019 election.

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This would break all historical records, putting the Tories well below their previous low of 141 seats in 1906 under Arthur Balfour.

It puts Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour on course for a commanding 425 seats, more than double the 202 seats won in the 2019 election and beats all previous records for Labour since the party was founded at the start of the last century.

Sir Tony Blair won a peak of 418 seats in 1997.

Labour could be on track for a 200 seat majority

The Liberal Democrats would win 67 seats under this projection, a huge six times the number of seats they won in 2019.

This would be the highest number since the formation of the Lib Dems, a record previously set in 2005 when Charles Kennedy was leader.

Meanwhile, John Swinney’s SNP are projected to drop to 20 seats under this projection, down from the 48 won by Nicola Sturgeon in the last general election.

Nigel Farage’s Reform party is on course for five seats, the Greens on two seats and Plaid Cymru on four seats.

Vote share projections from second YouGov MRP put Labour on 39%, 18 points up on the Conservatives

Since 3 June, when the last YouGov MRP was published, the pollster has changed its calls in 59 seats.

The Tories have dropped 32 seats since, Labour has gained three seats in this projection, while the Lib Dems are up 19, SNP up three and Plaid up two.

Reform wins five seats under the new projection, having previously been on course to win none according to YouGov. This includes Mr Farage winning his seat in Clacton.

Big name losses projected

The MRP poll also means big name losers on election night.

Some 15 of 27 cabinet members still standing in the election are set to lose, according to this projection.

The new cabinet casualties are Victoria Atkins, the health secretary, Lucy Frazer, the culture secretary, Richard Holden, the Conservative Party chair and Michael Tomlinson, who attends cabinet as an immigration minister.

This adds to Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, Grant Shapps, the defence secretary and Penny Mordaunt, the leader of the Commons.

Some 29 of the 45 ministers running in this election are projected to lose, including Steve Baker, the Northern Ireland minister, Chris Philp, the crime minister, Anne-Marie Trevelyan, the foreign office minister and Greg Hands, the trade minister.

Other notable Tory casualties include Robert Jenrick in Newark and Caroline Nokes in Romsey and Southampton North.

One Labour shadow cabinet member, Thangam Debbonaire, is still set to lose her Bristol West seat to the Greens.

What is an MRP poll?

You might come across the term MRP quite a lot in the coming weeks as we head towards the general election on 4 July.

An MRP poll – which stands for multilevel regression and post-stratification – is a type of poll that gets pundits excited because it draws from large amounts of data, including a large sample size and additional information like locations.

MRP polls first ask a large representative sample of people how they will vote. They then use that information of how different groups say they will vote combined with information about the sorts of people who live in different constituencies. This allows the pollster to estimate how people will vote in each constituency across the country – even when they may have surveyed just a few people, or even none, in some places.

This can then be broken down into smaller groups to see how voters in different areas say they plan to vote. Rather than making more generalised assumptions that everyone behaves the same way in different constituencies, it takes into account the fact that every constituency is its own race and local issues and trends may be at play.

What MRP can’t do is account for very specific local factors – such as a hospital or large employer closing down in a constituency, or a scandal relating to a particular candidate.

It still involves a lot of assumptions and estimates – and some races are too close to call with any level of certainty. It also only gives a snapshot of people’s opinions, and a lot can change over the course of an election campaign. However, it does give us a more nuanced idea about what the general election result could be than other more generic polls.

Some 109 seats are still listed as a “tossup”.

If all tossup and close races in every seat where Conservatives are second went in their favour, rather than in the direction assumed in this poll, then Labour would still have a majority of 132. The Conservatives in that scenario would win 153 seats – still their lowest on record and far below what Labour won in 2019 under Jeremy Corbyn.

The projection vote shares, implied by this MRP, are Labour on 39%, the Tories on 22%, Reform on 15%, Lib Dems on 12% and Greens on 7%.

The Conservatives are 32 seats worse off compared with the last YouGov MRP

This means the Labour majority and seat tally have both gone up, even though Labour’s implied vote share is down three points since the start of June. The big winners are Reform, up from 10% to 15% and the Lib Dems, up from 11% to 12%.

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The polling for the projection was conducted from last Tuesday until this Tuesday with 39,979 people interviewed online: 36,161 in England and Wales and 3,818 in Scotland.

It suggests the Conservatives would be a party predominantly of the south east, south west and east of England. The party risks an all or near wipe out in the north east, in Wales and the north west.

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Boris Johnson considered raiding Dutch warehouse during pandemic to retrieve COVID-19 vaccines

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Boris Johnson considered raiding Dutch warehouse during pandemic to retrieve COVID-19 vaccines

Boris Johnson claims he considered authorising a raid on a warehouse in the Netherlands during the pandemic to retrieve COVID-19 vaccines.

In his upcoming memoir, he described meeting senior military officials in March 2021 to discuss the plans, which he admitted were “nuts”.

Another extract from his upcoming book, released by the Daily Mail, describes Mr Johnson trying to convince the Duke of Sussex not to move to the United States.

He said Downing Street and Buckingham Palace asked him to speak to Prince Harry in January 2020, hours after announcing he and his wife Meghan planned to step away from royal life.

According to Mr Johnson, who was prime minister at the time, there was “a ridiculous business… when they made me try to persuade Harry to stay. Kind of manly pep talk. Totally hopeless”, the Daily Mail reported.

The men met for 20 minutes on the sidelines of a UK-Africa investment summit in London’s Docklands.

The Duke of Sussex (left) with Prime Minister Boris Johnson, as they attend the UK-Africa Investment Summit at the Intercontinental Hotel London in 2020
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Boris Johnson said he held a ‘manly pep talk’ with Prince Harry at a summit in 2020. Pic: PA

The Duke of Sussex (left) with Prime Minister Boris Johnson, as they attend the UK-Africa Investment Summit at the Intercontinental Hotel London in 2020
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Boris Johnson claims he was asked to try to convince Prince Harry not to move to the US. Pic: PA

Meanwhile, the latest extract describes Mr Johnson writing about a point during the pandemic when AstraZeneca was “trying, in vain” to export the vaccine to the UK from Holland.

More on Boris Johnson

At the time, the AstraZeneca jabs were at the heart of a cross-Channel row over exports.

He wrote he “had commissioned some work on whether it might be technically feasible to launch an aquatic raid on a warehouse in Leiden, in the Netherlands, and to take that which was legally ours and which the UK desperately needed”.

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He believed the EU was treating the UK “with malice and with spite” due to the European rollout being slower than in the UK.

The extract says military chiefs told Mr Johnson the plan was “certainly feasible”, using rigid inflatable boats to navigate Dutch canals.

But the senior officer said the UK would “have to explain why we are effectively invading a long-standing Nato ally”.

“They wanted to stop us getting the five million doses, and yet they showed no real sign of wanting to use the AstraZeneca doses themselves,” Mr Johnson wrote.

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UK weather: Wind warning issued by Met Office after week of heavy rain and floods

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UK weather: Wind warning issued by Met Office after week of heavy rain and floods

A weather warning for wind has been issued for Wales and southwest England on Sunday after rain battered parts of the UK this week.

The yellow warning covers Cardiff and West Wales, as well as most of the South West from Weston Super Mare in the north and Swanage in the south to Penzance, Cornwall.

According to the Met Office, it begins at 9am on Sunday and lasts until midnight.

The latest weather forecast for your area

They said in the warning Sunday will start dry and clear for most of the country, but wind and rain will then move in from the South West.

Wind speeds are set to get up to 55mph in affected areas, and possibly reach 60mph in exposed coastal regions.

A warning for wind has been issued for Sunday. Pic: Met Office
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A warning for wind has been issued for Sunday. Pic: Met Office

Gusts will be accompanied by outbreaks of rain, which could lead to surface water on roads and public transport delays, according to the Met Office.

Winds will then gradually ease across Wales and inland parts of southwest England throughout Sunday evening, but the weather agency warned it may remain fairly windy along some coasts overnight.

In their outlook for Monday to Wednesday, the Met Office said “unsettled” conditions will remain for the start of the next week, “with heavy rain and brisk winds and temperature on the cool side”.

It added conditions will be “slowly brightening up from the west as we head through Tuesday and into Wednesday”.

It comes after heavy rain and flooding struck across the UK this week, with an amber warning issued by the Met Office.

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As a result of the downpours, central and southern counties in England have already experienced more than 250% of their average September rainfall.

The Environment Agency said around 650 properties were flooded in Bedfordshire, Northamptonshire and the Home Counties.

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From Monday: House flooded as heavy rain hits UK

Areas affected by the heavy rain included Milton Keynes, Oxfordshire, Cambridgeshire, Leicestershire and the West Midlands, which were hit by flash floods.

The Met Office said the regions could have had 30-40mm of rainfall within three hours.

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The children who kill: Are they getting younger?

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The children who kill: Are they getting younger?

When 19-year-old Shawn Seesahai was beaten and hacked to death in a savage machete attack in a Wolverhampton park, detectives were shocked to discover his killers were just 12 years old.

Days earlier, in another part of the country, Alfie Lewis, 15, was stabbed to death by a 14-year-old boy outside a primary school in Leeds.

Later the same month, a girl and boy went on trial in Manchester for what was described as the “sadistic” knife murder of 16-year-old Brianna Ghey when they were both aged 15.

Murders carried out by children have always horrified us as a society – but are they getting more common or are killers getting younger?

A Sky News analysis of the available Office for National Statistics data on the number of suspects aged under 16 who have been convicted of homicide – murder, manslaughter and infanticide – shows a relatively flat trendline from 2006/7 to 2022/3.

The percentage of homicide convictions going to under-16s compared with other ages doubled over 10 years, however, from about 1 in 50 in 2012/13 to 1 in 25 in 2022/23.

The 2022/23 figure is the highest since at least 2008/09, but as the percentage of under-16s is low overall the averages can be heavily skewed by relatively few convictions.

Percentage of under 16s convicted of homicide
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Percentage of under-16s convicted of homicide

‘Much more serious and extreme’

Dr Simon Harding, a criminology expert, thinks there’s been “an increase in serious violence in young people” and that there is a greater “acceptance of extreme levels of violence between” children.

“Even something that might have been settled with fisticuffs or anti-social behaviour can suddenly dramatically turn into something much more serious and extreme,” he says.

“What 10 years ago might have been a punch in the face, five years ago might have been a stab to the arm or leg is now a stab to the neck or heart, which can lead to death.”

Bardia Shojaeifard was found guilty of murder after a jury heard how he attacked Alfie on his way home on 7 November last year “in revenge” for an altercation a week earlier.

A picture recovered from the phone of Bardia Shojaeifard shows him posing with a knife.
Pic: West Yorkshire Police
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Shojaeifard posed with knives. Pic: West Yorkshire Police

He had posed for pictures with knives and took a 13cm-long kitchen knife he used to kill Alfie from his home with him to school in the Horsforth area of Leeds.

Sentencing him to life detention with a minimum term of 13 years in June, a judge described Shojaeifard as “outwardly normal” but with a “worrying interest in knives”.

Shawn, who had been walking through Stowlawn playing fields in Wolverhampton with a friend on 13 November last year, was struck on his back, legs and skull, while the fatal wound was more than 20cm deep and punctured his heart.

Read more:
Children and teenagers convicted of knife killings
Grieving sister shocked by age of killers

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One of Shawn’s killers poses with a machete

The boys responsible, the UK’s youngest knife murderers – who were detained for at least eight-and-a-half years – are believed to be the youngest children to be found guilty of murder since Robert Thompson and Jon Venables.

Thompson and Venables were aged just 10 when they abducted, tortured and murdered two-year-old James Bulger in 1993 and 11 when they were found guilty of murder.

James Bulger seen on CCTV being led away before his murder
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James Bulger seen on CCTV being led away before his murder

A quarter of a century earlier, 11-year-old Mary Bell was sentenced to life detention in 1968 after being found guilty of manslaughter for fatally strangling two boys, aged four and three.

She was also aged just 10 at the time she killed her first victim.

Bell was 10 when she strangled her first victim. Pic: PA
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Bell was 10 when she strangled her first victim. Pic: PA

But Sharon Carr is believed to be the youngest girl in the country to have committed murder.

Carr was 12 when she fatally stabbed and mutilated stranger Katie Rackliff, 18, after she left a nightclub in Camberley, Surrey, in 1992, but she wasn’t convicted for another five years.

In another crime that shocked the nation, Ricky Preddie was 13 and his brother Danny was 12 when they killed 10-year-old schoolboy Damilola Taylor in 2000, although they weren’t jailed for his manslaughter until 2006.

Damilola Taylor. Pic: PA
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Damilola Taylor. Pic: PA

Is there now a greater ‘willingness to inflict pain’?

So there have always been cases of children who commit murder and other shocking crimes, but Dr Harding says: “We just tend to forget.”

However, from his experience preparing expert reports on court cases involving gang crime, exploitation and modern slavery, he says he has noticed a greater “willingness to inflict pain and suffering”.

Earlier this year, Scarlett Jenkinson and Eddie Ratcliffe were jailed for life with minimum terms of 22 years and 20 years respectively after they were found guilty of murdering Brianna when they were both aged just 15.

Brianna Ghey's killers  Scarlett Jenkinson and Eddie Ratcliffe
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Brianna Ghey’s killers – Scarlett Jenkinson and Eddie Ratcliffe

Jenkinson lured the vulnerable teenager, who was transgender, to Linear Park in the village of Culcheth, near Warrington, where she was stabbed 28 times in the head, neck, chest and back with a hunting knife on 11 February last year.

The pair had a fascination with violence and torture, prepared a “kill list” and meticulously planned Brianna’s “frenzied and ferocious” murder for weeks, their trial heard.

Jurors were told it was “difficult to fathom” how they could share such “dark thoughts” and carry out such a “disturbing” crime.

Beyond the high-profile cases that attract significant media attention, much of the country’s gang violence, including children killing other children, is largely hidden from the public, says Dr Harding.

He’s seeing “quite extreme things that wouldn’t happen a few years ago”, such as disabled people subjected to levels of cruelty bordering on torture, and young women raped and waterboarded by the people forcing them to sell drugs.

A different Dr Harding, forensic psychiatrist Dr Duncan Harding, works with adults and children who commit serious crimes. He says we really don’t know if killers are getting younger or youth violent crime is increasing because the evidence just isn’t there.

But the reporting of crime and the expansion of social media use means cases which may not have passed the threshold for widespread coverage in the past gain more traction, adding to a perception that it is.

Number of under 16s convicted of homicide
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Number of under-16s convicted of homicide

Percentage of under 16s convicted of homicide
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Percentage of under-16s convicted of homicide

Dehumanisation is spreading’

Even if youth violence isn’t on the rise, the “horrifying” crimes we see reported aren’t acceptable and we have to, as a society, try to understand what’s going on and try to improve things, Dr Duncan Harding adds.

The psychiatrist, who has provided expert evidence in court cases involving homicide, serious violence and terrorism, and has recently released his memoir The Criminal Mind, says the “dehumanisation” seen in gang violence seems to be spreading beyond gangs.

Our divided society is suffering an existential crisis since the COVID-19 pandemic, which is exacerbated by social media, he says, and he also highlights cuts to services for young people due to austerity as a potential factor.

But “stripping away youth clubs isn’t going to in itself lead to someone who’s going to stab or kill someone”, he says, and children don’t always commit violent crimes because of mental illness or difficulties in their lives.

“Obviously, they’re not normal, well-adjusted people, but in my experience, it’s not as straightforward as that either,” he says. “I don’t think that all offenders are victims.”

Shawn Seesahai, who was killed in a machete attack in Wolverhampton. Pic provided by West Midlands Police via Becky Cotterill
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Shawn Seesahai was killed in a machete attack. Pic: West Midlands Police

‘You have to have proper sentencing for knife crime’

The potential solutions are just as complicated – the psychiatrist suggests a public health approach that recognises the “epidemic” of knife crime among vulnerable young children, with schools, health workers and police working together to spot the early warning signs.

But he also supports the wider use of stop-and-search and the government ban on so-called zombie-style knives to try to keep weapons out of children’s hands, and says there need to be consequences at the point where youngsters are carrying knives.

Shawn’s parents urge children to “think about what they’re doing” and not to carry a weapon, but want to see tougher sentences for youngsters like the boys who killed their son.

“You have to have a proper sentencing for knife crime,” says his father Suresh Seesahai.

“Murder is murder. Murder is no coming back. If you murder someone they can’t come back… Life sentence is the best for you.”

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