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Labour are on course for a majority of 200 according to a new YouGov projection, which also suggests the Tories will slump to their lowest number of seats at an election since the party’s formation in 1834.

If this projection is replicated when the country goes to the polls on 4 July, Labour would have the second largest majority since the Second World War.

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This is the second of three polling projections of this election campaign by YouGov, which Sky News has partnered with for the election. It uses a modelling technique known as MRP.

House of Commons seat projection from second Sky/YouGov MRP

The latest poll suggests Labour are on course for a majority that is six seats larger than their initial projection on 3 June, which suggested a majority of 194.

If this and other MRP polls are accurate, it suggests Britain is on the cusp of a fundamental redrawing of the political landscape.

The projection suggests Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives would plummet to 108 seats – down from the 365 won by Boris Johnson in the 2019 election.

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This would break all historical records, putting the Tories well below their previous low of 141 seats in 1906 under Arthur Balfour.

It puts Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour on course for a commanding 425 seats, more than double the 202 seats won in the 2019 election and beats all previous records for Labour since the party was founded at the start of the last century.

Sir Tony Blair won a peak of 418 seats in 1997.

Labour could be on track for a 200 seat majority

The Liberal Democrats would win 67 seats under this projection, a huge six times the number of seats they won in 2019.

This would be the highest number since the formation of the Lib Dems, a record previously set in 2005 when Charles Kennedy was leader.

Meanwhile, John Swinney’s SNP are projected to drop to 20 seats under this projection, down from the 48 won by Nicola Sturgeon in the last general election.

Nigel Farage’s Reform party is on course for five seats, the Greens on two seats and Plaid Cymru on four seats.

Vote share projections from second YouGov MRP put Labour on 39%, 18 points up on the Conservatives

Since 3 June, when the last YouGov MRP was published, the pollster has changed its calls in 59 seats.

The Tories have dropped 32 seats since, Labour has gained three seats in this projection, while the Lib Dems are up 19, SNP up three and Plaid up two.

Reform wins five seats under the new projection, having previously been on course to win none according to YouGov. This includes Mr Farage winning his seat in Clacton.

Big name losses projected

The MRP poll also means big name losers on election night.

Some 15 of 27 cabinet members still standing in the election are set to lose, according to this projection.

The new cabinet casualties are Victoria Atkins, the health secretary, Lucy Frazer, the culture secretary, Richard Holden, the Conservative Party chair and Michael Tomlinson, who attends cabinet as an immigration minister.

This adds to Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, Grant Shapps, the defence secretary and Penny Mordaunt, the leader of the Commons.

Some 29 of the 45 ministers running in this election are projected to lose, including Steve Baker, the Northern Ireland minister, Chris Philp, the crime minister, Anne-Marie Trevelyan, the foreign office minister and Greg Hands, the trade minister.

Other notable Tory casualties include Robert Jenrick in Newark and Caroline Nokes in Romsey and Southampton North.

One Labour shadow cabinet member, Thangam Debbonaire, is still set to lose her Bristol West seat to the Greens.

What is an MRP poll?

You might come across the term MRP quite a lot in the coming weeks as we head towards the general election on 4 July.

An MRP poll – which stands for multilevel regression and post-stratification – is a type of poll that gets pundits excited because it draws from large amounts of data, including a large sample size and additional information like locations.

MRP polls first ask a large representative sample of people how they will vote. They then use that information of how different groups say they will vote combined with information about the sorts of people who live in different constituencies. This allows the pollster to estimate how people will vote in each constituency across the country – even when they may have surveyed just a few people, or even none, in some places.

This can then be broken down into smaller groups to see how voters in different areas say they plan to vote. Rather than making more generalised assumptions that everyone behaves the same way in different constituencies, it takes into account the fact that every constituency is its own race and local issues and trends may be at play.

What MRP can’t do is account for very specific local factors – such as a hospital or large employer closing down in a constituency, or a scandal relating to a particular candidate.

It still involves a lot of assumptions and estimates – and some races are too close to call with any level of certainty. It also only gives a snapshot of people’s opinions, and a lot can change over the course of an election campaign. However, it does give us a more nuanced idea about what the general election result could be than other more generic polls.

Some 109 seats are still listed as a “tossup”.

If all tossup and close races in every seat where Conservatives are second went in their favour, rather than in the direction assumed in this poll, then Labour would still have a majority of 132. The Conservatives in that scenario would win 153 seats – still their lowest on record and far below what Labour won in 2019 under Jeremy Corbyn.

The projection vote shares, implied by this MRP, are Labour on 39%, the Tories on 22%, Reform on 15%, Lib Dems on 12% and Greens on 7%.

The Conservatives are 32 seats worse off compared with the last YouGov MRP

This means the Labour majority and seat tally have both gone up, even though Labour’s implied vote share is down three points since the start of June. The big winners are Reform, up from 10% to 15% and the Lib Dems, up from 11% to 12%.

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The polling for the projection was conducted from last Tuesday until this Tuesday with 39,979 people interviewed online: 36,161 in England and Wales and 3,818 in Scotland.

It suggests the Conservatives would be a party predominantly of the south east, south west and east of England. The party risks an all or near wipe out in the north east, in Wales and the north west.

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Two terminally ill adults on opposing sides of the assisted dying debate meet to share their views

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Two terminally ill adults on opposing sides of the assisted dying debate meet to share their views

Philip and Clare are on opposing sides on the issue of assisted dying.

Last year, Sky News filmed them as they watched the country debate whether to change the law to allow it.

Now, the pair meet each other for the first time to let the country watch them debate.

Warning: This article contains descriptions of assisted dying and suicide throughout

The Terminally Ill Adults (End Of Life) Bill

Meet Clare

My name’s Clare and I live on a farm in North Devon. I’ve got two fabulous daughters, Chloe and Izzy. I have stage 4 breast cancer.

I’ve been campaigning for the assisted dying bill [Terminally Ill Adults (End of Life) Bill] to pass through Parliament. I’m looking forward to meeting Philip. I hope it’s not going to be an argument.

Clare, who is in favour of assisted dying

Meet Philip

The name’s Philip, and I’m from the Midlands where I live with my wife Pauline. I was given six months to live last year, I should be dead right now.

I’ve got pancreatic cancer. I’m against assisted dying – or assisted suicide, as I call it. I feel terribly sorry for Clare. I want nobody to be suffering.

Philip, who is against assisted dying

The pair meet in Bristol – halfway between their addresses.

After greeting with a hug, Philip tells Clare his mother died of cancer when he was a young teenager.

Philip and Clare meeting

Philip: She said, ‘God, please either heal me or take me.’ I realised that my mum must have believed and trusted in God. Now I keep saying to the doctor that I pray God will stop the cancer growing.

Clare: I think I’m similar about Mother Earth. Whilst I’m not a Christian, I’ve always had this acceptance and understanding that I’m part of a natural cycle.

I don’t have that need to fight death as much as I’m hearing from you.

Philip: I’m not aware of fighting, because in my terms, it would be a sheer waste of time.

Philip

Clare tells Philip she would like a “good death”.

Clare: In my garden, with my daughters, preferably one of them playing her guitar – it’s my paradise. I would like to have the choice, whether I took it up or not at the last minute, at a time and place of my choosing, when death is close, to be able to take something to hasten my death.

Philip: There could be a cure for what you and I have got, but we just don’t know. You don’t know what miracle is around the corner, and if you commit suicide, you’re robbing yourself of that opportunity.

Philip foreground Clare in focus

Both agree that breaking the news of their diagnoses to their children was the hardest part of cancer. Clare says the disease has turned her liver “20 shades of grey”.

Clare: It’s pretty much gone to all my bones, except for my hands and feet.

Philip: Horrible.

Clare: Then there’s also the treatment. Did you have any Docetaxels?

Philip: I’m very grateful I have refused it all.

Clare: Have you not had any chemotherapy?

Philip: I’ve had nothing.

Philip

Philip warns Clare that if the Terminally Ill Adults Bill is approved, vulnerable people could be pressured into taking their own life. He’d rather leave his death in God’s hands.

Philip: I want to do what God says. So, I’m against assisted dying on those principles of the fact that no matter what safeguards you put in, you’re breaking, what I understand to be God’s plan and purpose.

Clare: When I got my diagnosis, the first thing I said to my consultant was, “well, thank goodness I can take my own life”. I’d been very consistent, and I was on my own in the room, nobody else with me. And I think I’m a sort of bright, intelligent person.

Philip: I didn’t say you weren’t.

Clare: I really understand the power of coercive control, the insidious nature of it.

Philip and Clare

Philip: I feel sorry for the poor suckers who are with you.

Clare: My daughters?

Philip: They’ve got to live with the fact that you died and they let you.

Clare: My daughters are completely supportive of assisted dying.

Clare says dying should be a personal choice.

Clare: It’s not about other people with terminal life-limiting disease or people with disabilities. It’s purely an option for Clare Turner.

Philip: If they alter the law for Clare Turner, they’ve got to alter it for everybody.

Clare: At the moment, over 300 people with terminal illnesses take their own life in pretty miserable situations, quite often alone, every year.

Philip and Clare

Philip: It’s financial. If it’s costing hundreds of thousands to look after you, just think what we could save if we bumped 20 of you off.

Clare: I find that quite offensive, Philip.

Clare

Clare: I guess I’m just not a cynical person.

Philip: I’m not a cynical person. I’m facing reality. I see how it’s been applied in other countries.

Show me Canada and Belgium have never altered their laws with regards to assisted suicide. You can’t. They’ve altered them totally.

Before they say goodbye, Clare gifts Philip honey made by bees that visit her garden.

Philip gives Clare a box of chocolates called Heroes.

“Anybody who is battling with cancer is a hero not to quit,” he says.

Philip and Clare giving gifts

Anyone feeling emotionally distressed or suicidal can call Samaritans for help on 116 123 or email jo@samaritans.org in the UK.

In the US, call the Samaritans branch in your area or 1 (800) 273-TALK

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Peter Sullivan who has spent 38 years in jail for murder has conviction quashed

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Peter Sullivan who has spent 38 years in jail for murder has conviction quashed

A man who has spent 38 years in prison for murder has had his conviction quashed – but insisted he is “not angry” or “bitter”.

The Court of Appeal ruling in the case of Peter Sullivan ends what’s thought to be the longest-running miscarriage of justice in British history.

He was found guilty of the 1986 murder of 21-year-old Diane Sindall, who had been beaten, raped and left in an alleyway in Bebington, Merseyside.

Diane Sindall. Pic: Merseyside Police/PA Wire
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Diane Sindall was murdered in 1986. Pic: Merseyside Police/PA Wire

Mr Sullivan – who was jailed in 1987 – had always maintained his innocence and first tried to challenge his conviction in 2016, but the Criminal Cases Review Commission (CCRC) declined to refer the case, and he lost his own appeal bid in 2019.

Two years later, he again asked the CCRC to refer his case and new tests, ordered by the commission, revealed Mr Sullivan’s DNA was not present on samples preserved at the time.

At a hearing on Tuesday, lawyers for Mr Sullivan told the Court of Appeal in London that the new evidence showed that Ms Sindall’s killer “was not the defendant”.

Mr Sullivan attended the hearing via video link from HMP Wakefield, listening to his conviction being quashed with his head down and arms folded before appearing to weep and putting his hand to his mouth.

A relative in court also wept as the judgment was read out.

‘The truth shall set you free’

In a statement following the ruling, Mr Sullivan – now 68 – said: “I lost my liberty four decades ago over a crime I did not commit.

“What happened to me was very wrong, but does not detract that what happened… was a heinous and most terrible loss of life.”

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Peter Sullivan case explained

He added: “It is said the truth shall set you free. It is unfortunate that it does not give a timescale as we advance towards resolving the wrongs done to me.

“I am not angry, I am not bitter.

“I am simply anxious to return to my loved ones and family as I’ve got to make the most of what is left of the existence I am granted in this world.”

Outside court, Mr Sullivan’s sister Kim Smith said she was “ecstatic” at seeing her brother’s conviction quashed.

She told reporters: “We lost Peter for 39 years and at the end of the day, it’s not just us; Peter hasn’t won, and neither has the Sindall family. They’ve lost their daughter, they are not going to get her back.

“We’ve got Peter back and now we’ve got to try and build a life around him again. We feel sorry for the Sindalls and it’s such a shame this has had to happen in the first place.”

Mr Sullivan's sister, Kim Smith, said she was "ecstatic" about her brother's conviction being quashed. Pic: PA
Image:
Mr Sullivan’s sister Kim Smith said she was ‘ecstatic’ after the ruling. Pic: PA

Barristers for the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) said the DNA evidence was “sufficient fundamentally to cast doubt on the safety of the conviction” and that there was “no credible basis on which the appeal can be opposed”.

Lord Justice Holroyde, sitting with Mr Justice Goss and Mr Justice Bryan, said in light of the new DNA evidence “it is impossible to regard the appellant’s conviction as safe” as he quashed the conviction.

Hunt for DNA match

Merseyside Police has confirmed detectives are now “carrying out an extensive investigation in a bid to identify who the new DNA profile belongs to, as to date there is no match on the national DNA database”.

Detectives are also contacting individuals identified in the original investigation to request voluntary DNA samples.

That initial investigation was the largest in the force’s history and, for many officers, the “frenzied” nature of the attack made it the worst case they had ever encountered.

Ms Sindall, who was engaged to be married, had just left her shift as a part-time barmaid at a pub in Bebington when her small blue van ran out of petrol.

Diane Sindall
Image:
Diane Sindall was killed after finishing her shift as a barmaid

She was walking to an all-night garage when she was attacked.

Mr Sullivan, who was 29 at the time and described as a loner, initially denied the attack but later signed a confession.

Questions have since been raised about whether he had proper legal representation during police interviews. Evidence related to bite marks on Ms Sindall’s body, considered crucial at the trial, has also since been called into question.

At the time of Mr Sullivan’s trial in 1987, DNA technology was not available and subsequent requests for new tests had been refused.

‘Nobody felt safe’

On the grass verge close to where Ms Sindall’s body was found, a memorial stone has been placed in memory of her and “and all of our sisters who have been raped and murdered”.

Her murder sent a chill through the community and led to the creation of the Rape and Sexual Abuse Centre on Merseyside. “Nobody felt safe, it was a very scary time,” said the centre’s Jo Wood.

A memorial to Diane Sindall
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A memorial to Ms Sindall on a grass verge near where her body was found

She says the uncertainty has resurfaced. “There’s someone out who killed Diane Sindall,” said solicitor Ms Myatt.

“The biggest fear we’ve got is of the unknown and now we’ve got an unknown. We don’t know who it might be. Who knows who this person is? Are we going to encounter him?

“We might have encountered him, we don’t know, we just know that he’s out there.”

Ms Sindall’s family told Sky News they did not want to comment on the case.

Mel John, landlord of the pub where Ms Sindall worked on the night of her death, said: “I’m glad he’s being released if he’s innocent. It has been a long time.”

Mr Sullivan is also aware, his solicitor says, of the impact on Ms Sindall’s family.

“We are very sensitive and respectful to the fact that there is a victim, Diane Sindall and her family, that will be affected by this process,” the solicitor said.

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Tory MP Patrick Spencer charged with sexual assaults at Groucho Club

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Tory MP Patrick Spencer charged with sexual assaults at Groucho Club

Tory MP Patrick Spencer has been charged with two counts of sexual assault at London’s Groucho Club.

The charges follow two alleged incidents involving two different women at the private members’ club, in Soho, in August 2023, the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) said.

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Mr Spencer – who is the Conservative MP for Central Suffolk and North Ipswich – will appear at Westminster Magistrates’ Court on Monday 16 June.

A Conservative Party spokesman said Mr Spencer, 37, has been suspended by the Tories and had the whip withdrawn.

The Groucho Club in Soho, London. Pic: PA
Image:
The Groucho Club in Soho, London. Pic: PA

The Metropolitan Police said he was charged after attending a voluntary interview at a London police station on 13 March this year.

Frank Ferguson, head of the CPS special crime and counter terrorism division, said: “Following a review of the evidence provided by the Metropolitan Police Service, we have authorised two counts of sexual assault against Patrick Spencer MP.

“The charges follow two alleged incidents involving two separate women at the Groucho Club in central London in August 2023.

“The Crown Prosecution Service reminds all concerned that criminal proceedings against this defendant are now active and that he has the right to a fair trial.

“It is extremely important that there should be no reporting, commentary or sharing of information online which could in any way prejudice these proceedings.”

Mr Spencer was first elected to Parliament last year with a majority of 4,290.

It is understood he was asked not to attend the parliamentary estate by the Tory chief whip while police enquiries were ongoing.

A Conservative Party spokesman said: “The Conservative Party believes in integrity and high standards. We have taken immediate action.

“Patrick Spencer MP has been suspended from the Conservative Party, and the whip withdrawn, with immediate effect.

“The Conservative Party cannot comment further on an ongoing legal case.”

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The Groucho Club, in Dean Street, opened in 1985 and became a renowned meeting place for A-list celebrities and others, including actors, comedians and media executives.

The club was named after the comedian and actor Groucho Marx, who reportedly once said he would refuse to join any club that would have him as a member.

It was originally set up as a more relaxed alternative to traditional gentlemen’s clubs, according to the venue’s website, which adds that members should be in the creative industry “and share the club’s maverick spirit”.

Before becoming an MP, Mr Spencer worked in finance for private equity firm IPGL, a company chaired by his father, former Conservative Party treasurer Lord Michael Spencer.

He later took a job at the Centre for Social Justice think thank before becoming a senior adviser at the Department for Education.

He made his maiden speech in the Commons in July last year during a debate on the MPs’ code of conduct relating to second jobs, during which he said the “most important thing to the people across my constituency” was “restoring a sense of moral probity and public spiritedness to our political system”.

Sky News has contacted Mr Spencer for comment.

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