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Labour are on course for a majority of 200 according to a new YouGov projection, which also suggests the Tories will slump to their lowest number of seats at an election since the party’s formation in 1834.

If this projection is replicated when the country goes to the polls on 4 July, Labour would have the second largest majority since the Second World War.

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This is the second of three polling projections of this election campaign by YouGov, which Sky News has partnered with for the election. It uses a modelling technique known as MRP.

House of Commons seat projection from second Sky/YouGov MRP

The latest poll suggests Labour are on course for a majority that is six seats larger than their initial projection on 3 June, which suggested a majority of 194.

If this and other MRP polls are accurate, it suggests Britain is on the cusp of a fundamental redrawing of the political landscape.

The projection suggests Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives would plummet to 108 seats – down from the 365 won by Boris Johnson in the 2019 election.

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This would break all historical records, putting the Tories well below their previous low of 141 seats in 1906 under Arthur Balfour.

It puts Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour on course for a commanding 425 seats, more than double the 202 seats won in the 2019 election and beats all previous records for Labour since the party was founded at the start of the last century.

Sir Tony Blair won a peak of 418 seats in 1997.

Labour could be on track for a 200 seat majority

The Liberal Democrats would win 67 seats under this projection, a huge six times the number of seats they won in 2019.

This would be the highest number since the formation of the Lib Dems, a record previously set in 2005 when Charles Kennedy was leader.

Meanwhile, John Swinney’s SNP are projected to drop to 20 seats under this projection, down from the 48 won by Nicola Sturgeon in the last general election.

Nigel Farage’s Reform party is on course for five seats, the Greens on two seats and Plaid Cymru on four seats.

Vote share projections from second YouGov MRP put Labour on 39%, 18 points up on the Conservatives

Since 3 June, when the last YouGov MRP was published, the pollster has changed its calls in 59 seats.

The Tories have dropped 32 seats since, Labour has gained three seats in this projection, while the Lib Dems are up 19, SNP up three and Plaid up two.

Reform wins five seats under the new projection, having previously been on course to win none according to YouGov. This includes Mr Farage winning his seat in Clacton.

Big name losses projected

The MRP poll also means big name losers on election night.

Some 15 of 27 cabinet members still standing in the election are set to lose, according to this projection.

The new cabinet casualties are Victoria Atkins, the health secretary, Lucy Frazer, the culture secretary, Richard Holden, the Conservative Party chair and Michael Tomlinson, who attends cabinet as an immigration minister.

This adds to Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, Grant Shapps, the defence secretary and Penny Mordaunt, the leader of the Commons.

Some 29 of the 45 ministers running in this election are projected to lose, including Steve Baker, the Northern Ireland minister, Chris Philp, the crime minister, Anne-Marie Trevelyan, the foreign office minister and Greg Hands, the trade minister.

Other notable Tory casualties include Robert Jenrick in Newark and Caroline Nokes in Romsey and Southampton North.

One Labour shadow cabinet member, Thangam Debbonaire, is still set to lose her Bristol West seat to the Greens.

What is an MRP poll?

You might come across the term MRP quite a lot in the coming weeks as we head towards the general election on 4 July.

An MRP poll – which stands for multilevel regression and post-stratification – is a type of poll that gets pundits excited because it draws from large amounts of data, including a large sample size and additional information like locations.

MRP polls first ask a large representative sample of people how they will vote. They then use that information of how different groups say they will vote combined with information about the sorts of people who live in different constituencies. This allows the pollster to estimate how people will vote in each constituency across the country – even when they may have surveyed just a few people, or even none, in some places.

This can then be broken down into smaller groups to see how voters in different areas say they plan to vote. Rather than making more generalised assumptions that everyone behaves the same way in different constituencies, it takes into account the fact that every constituency is its own race and local issues and trends may be at play.

What MRP can’t do is account for very specific local factors – such as a hospital or large employer closing down in a constituency, or a scandal relating to a particular candidate.

It still involves a lot of assumptions and estimates – and some races are too close to call with any level of certainty. It also only gives a snapshot of people’s opinions, and a lot can change over the course of an election campaign. However, it does give us a more nuanced idea about what the general election result could be than other more generic polls.

Some 109 seats are still listed as a “tossup”.

If all tossup and close races in every seat where Conservatives are second went in their favour, rather than in the direction assumed in this poll, then Labour would still have a majority of 132. The Conservatives in that scenario would win 153 seats – still their lowest on record and far below what Labour won in 2019 under Jeremy Corbyn.

The projection vote shares, implied by this MRP, are Labour on 39%, the Tories on 22%, Reform on 15%, Lib Dems on 12% and Greens on 7%.

The Conservatives are 32 seats worse off compared with the last YouGov MRP

This means the Labour majority and seat tally have both gone up, even though Labour’s implied vote share is down three points since the start of June. The big winners are Reform, up from 10% to 15% and the Lib Dems, up from 11% to 12%.

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The polling for the projection was conducted from last Tuesday until this Tuesday with 39,979 people interviewed online: 36,161 in England and Wales and 3,818 in Scotland.

It suggests the Conservatives would be a party predominantly of the south east, south west and east of England. The party risks an all or near wipe out in the north east, in Wales and the north west.

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Jess Phillips condemns ‘idiot’ councils that don’t believe they have grooming gang problem

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Jess Phillips condemns 'idiot' councils that don't believe they have grooming gang problem

Safeguarding minister Jess Phillips has told Sky News that councils that believe they don’t have a problem with grooming gangs are “idiots” – as she denied Elon Musk influenced the decision to have a national inquiry on the subject. 

The minister said: “I don’t follow Elon Musk’s advice on anything although maybe I too would like to go to Mars.

“Before anyone even knew Elon Musk’s name, I was working with the victims of these crimes.”

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Elon Musk. Pic: Reuters
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Elon Musk. Pic: Reuters

Mr Musk had called Ms Phillips a “rape genocide apologist” in one of a series of inflammatory posts on X in January and said she should go to jail.

Mr Musk, then a close aide of US President Donald Trump, sparked a significant political row with his comments – with the Conservative Party and Reform UK calling for a new public inquiry into grooming gangs.

At the time, Ms Phillips denied a request for a public inquiry into child sexual exploitation in Oldham on the basis that it should be done at a local level.

But the government announced a national inquiry after Baroness Casey’s rapid audit on grooming gangs, which was published in June.

Asked if she thought there was, in the words of Baroness Casey, “over representation” among suspects of Asian and Pakistani men, Ms Phillips replied: “My own experience of working with many young girls in my area – yes there is a problem. There are different parts of the country where the problem will look different, organised crime has different flavours across the board.

“But I have to look at the evidence… and the government reacts to the evidence.”

Ms Phillips also said the home secretary has written to all police chiefs telling them that data collection on ethnicity “has to change”, to ensure that it is always recorded, promising “we will legislate to change the way this [collection] is done if necessary”.

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Operation Beaconport has since been established, led by the National Crime Agency (NCA), and will be reviewing more than 1,200 closed cases of child sexual exploitation.

Ms Phillips revealed that at least “five, six” councils have asked to be a part of the national review – and denounced councils that believed they don’t have a problem with grooming gangs as “idiots”.

“I don’t want [the inquiry] just to go over places that have already had inquiries and find things the Casey had already identified,” she said.

She confirmed that a shortlist for a chair has been drawn up, and she expects the inquiry to be finished within three years.

Ms Phillips’s comments come after she announced £426,000 of funding to roll out artificial intelligence tools across all 43 police forces in England and Wales to speed up investigations into modern slavery, child sex abuse and county lines gangs.

Some 13 forces have access to the AI apps, which the Home Office says have saved more than £20m and 16,000 hours for investigators.

The apps can translate large amounts of text in foreign languages and analyse data to find relationships between suspects.

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Prince Harry cleared of bullying claims by report into ‘damaging dispute’ at his charity

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Prince Harry cleared of bullying claims by report into 'damaging dispute' at his charity

The Charity Commission has found no evidence of bullying or harassment at a charity set up by Prince Harry.

But it has found that an internal dispute at Sentebale “severely impacted the charity’s reputation”.

Earlier this year its chair, Dr Sophie Chandauka, accused the Duke of Sussex of “harassment and bullying at scale”.

Her comments followed the departure of the prince and several others from the organisation in March.

They had asked her to step down, alleging it was in the “best interest of the charity”.

Dr Chandauka told Sky News that Harry had “authorised the release of a damaging piece of news to the outside world” without informing her or Sentebale directors.

The Duke and Duchess of Sussex declined to offer any formal response.

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Why was Prince Harry accused of ‘bullying’?

‘Strong perception of ill-treatment’

The Charity Commission said it was reporting after a “damaging internal dispute emerged” and has “criticised all parties to the dispute for allowing it to play out publicly”.

That “severely impacted the charity’s reputation and risked undermining public trust in charities more generally”, it said.

But it found no evidence of “widespread or systemic bullying or harassment, including misogyny or misogynoir at the charity”.

Nevertheless, it did acknowledge the “strong perception of ill-treatment felt by a number of parties to the dispute and the impact this may have had on them personally”.

It also found no evidence of “‘over-reach’ by either the chair or the Duke of Sussex as patron”.

‘Confusion exacerbated tensions’

But it was critical of the charity’s “lack of clarity in delegations to the chair which allowed for misunderstandings to occur”.

And it has “identified a lack of clarity around role descriptions and internal policies as the primary cause for weaknesses in the charity’s management”.

That “confusion exacerbated tensions, which culminated in a dispute and multiple resignations of trustees and both founding patrons”.

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Why was Prince Harry accused of ‘bullying’?

Harry: Report falls troublingly short

A spokesperson for Prince Harry said it was “unsurprising” that the commission had announced “no findings of wrongdoing in relation to Sentebale’s co-founder and former patron, Prince Harry, Duke of Sussex”.

They added: “Despite all that, their report falls troublingly short in many regards, primarily the fact that the consequences of the current chair’s actions will not be borne by her, but by the children who rely on Sentebale’s support.”

They said the prince will “now focus on finding new ways to continue supporting the children of Lesotho and Botswana”.

Dr Chandauka said: “I appreciate the Charity Commission for its conclusions which confirm the governance concerns I raised privately in February 2025.”

But she added: “The unexpected adverse media campaign that was launched by those who resigned on 24 March 2025 has caused incalculable damage and offers a glimpse of the unacceptable behaviours displayed in private.”

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Police investigating grooming gangs given AI tools to speed up cold case work

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Police investigating grooming gangs given AI tools to speed up cold case work

All police forces investigating grooming gangs in England and Wales will be given access to new AI tools to help speed up their investigations.

The artificial intelligence tools are already thought to have saved officers in 13 forces more than £20m and 16,000 hours of investigation time.

The apps can translate large amounts of text in foreign languages from mobile phones seized by police, and analyse a mass of digital data to find patterns and relationships between suspects.

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Grooming gang inquiry: ‘Our chance for justice’

‘We must punish perpetrators’

The rollout is part of a £426,000 boost for the Tackling Organised Exploitation (TOEX) programme, which supports officers to investigate complex cases involving modern slavery, county lines and child sex abuse.

The increased access to the AI technology follows Baroness Casey’s recommendation for a national operation to review cold grooming gang cases.

That operation will review more than 1,200 closed cases of child sexual exploitation.

“The sexual exploitation of children by grooming gangs is one of the most horrific crimes, and we must punish perpetrators, provide justice for victims and survivors, and protect today’s children from harm,” said safeguarding minister Jess Phillips.

“Baroness Casey flagged the need to upgrade police information systems to improve investigations and safeguard children at risk. Today we are investing in these critical tools.”

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Key takeaways from the Casey review

Lack of ethnicity data ‘a major failing’

Police forces have also been instructed by the home secretary to collect ethnicity data, as recommended by Baroness Casey.

Her June report found the lack of data showing sex offenders’ ethnicity and nationality in grooming gangs was “a major failing over the last decade or more”.

She found that officials avoided the issue of ethnicity for fear of being called racist, but there were enough convictions of Asian men “to have warranted closer examination”.

The government has launched a national inquiry into the abuse and further details are expected to be announced in the coming weeks.

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