Remembering Willie Mays: He was Steph Curry, Michael Jordan, Simone Biles and Mikhail Baryshnikov
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Tim Kurkjian, ESPN Senior Writer
Editor’s note: Willie Mays died Tuesday at age 93. This story was originally published in 2021 on his 90th birthday.
To appreciate Willie Mays is to remember him at 20. When he joined the New York Giants in 1951, the game had never seen an athlete like him — breathtakingly graceful, the greatest combination of power, speed and defense ever to wear a major league uniform. And 70 years later, to many, he remains precisely that.
“You’d sit on the bench and watch Willie Mays,” Hall of Famer Reggie Jackson said. “It was so exciting just to watch him. People did that with Jim Brown. They did that with the acrobatics and greatness of [Michael] Jordan. It’s like players today going to watch the pregame warm-ups of Steph Curry. To watch Willie warm up, to throw the ball underhand, to make a basket catch. The beauty and the grace. For the kids today, it was like watching Simone Biles. It was like watching [Mikhail] Baryshnikov. It was poetry in motion. It was so beautiful, so pretty, to watch this athlete just run on the field, catch a ball. I loved to play against Willie Mays because it meant that I got to watch Willie Mays.”
Mays was one of the three great center fielders in New York, joining the Yankees’ sensational Mickey Mantle and Dodgers Hall of Famer Duke Snider. But as Mantle once said, “Well, there were the two of us … and then there was Willie.”
Ken Griffey Jr. made it even simpler.
“I call him ‘The Godfather of Center Fielders,'” Junior said.
And what of those comparisons, that Griffey would be the next Mays?
“In baseball, comparisons are always made, but I didn’t compare myself to him,” Griffey said. “But I also didn’t not want to be compared to him, if that makes sense. You always want to be compared to the best.”
Lon Simmons, a Hall of Fame broadcaster who called Giants games all 14 years that Mays played in San Francisco once the team moved west in 1958, said, “Willie was so good, the fans expected a miracle from him every day. So he gave them a miracle every other day.”
Mays is generally considered not only the greatest center fielder of all time, but after Babe Ruth, the greatest player of all time. I once asked Doug Rader, a five-time Gold Glove third baseman for the Astros from 1967 to 1977 and a later a big league manager, who was the best player he had ever seen. Rader laughed.
“Bill Mays, who else?” he said.
Hall of Famer Juan Marichal agreed.
“Willie was the best, No. 1 all time … and I know,” Marichal said. “I was there for a lot of Willie.”
Who else? Willie Mays was that good.
“He was magical,” Hall of Fame catcher Johnny Bench said. “He was perfect.”
“Best player I’ve ever seen,” said Tim McCarver, a former catcher who played in four decades and later became a Hall of Fame broadcaster. “He could do all the things that other guys couldn’t.”
“He was the first player to have genuine swag,” Astros manager Dusty Baker said.
There were five-tool players before Mays, but all of Mays’ tools were among the best in the game, like a lead singer who wrote the songs and could also play all the instruments better than anyone in the band. Mays’ 12 Gold Gloves are the most ever by a player in the 500-home run club. When he retired in 1973, he was third all time in homers after averaging 33 a year.
Indeed, he could play the piano and move it, too.
“He has all the same traits as Mike Trout,” Pete Rose said. “But [Trout] doesn’t have Willie’s flair.”
It almost wasn’t fair.
“Willie Mays was too good,” former teammate Felipe Alou said.
Jump to a section:
THE BAT | THE GLOVE | THE ARM | THE LEGS |
THE SAY HEY KID
The Bat
Mays hit 660 home runs, now sixth most of all time. He had 3,283 hits, 11th most ever. He won two MVPs, 11 years apart. He had a .302 average, an OPS over .900 for 13 straight years, an OPS over 1.000 in five seasons. He won a National League batting title and four home run titles. He played 14 years in Candlestick Park, a big ballpark with swirling winds; in another home ballpark, he might have hit 700 homers. If he hadn’t missed nearly two prime seasons to military service, he might have hit closer to 800. His swing was short and compact. He often stepped in the bucket, but could still cover the outside part of the plate.
Former manager Bobby Valentine
“It was a different sound off his bat. One day I got to the ballpark very early just to check out his bats. I went to the other dugout to see if they were different. They were heavy; they weren’t different. He was different.”
Pete Rose
“I felt sorry for Willie in a way having to play at that s—hole Candlestick. That was the worst place in the world to play baseball. It was always windy and cold. The sun was always in your eyes. There were 10,000, 12,000 people at every game. If he played today in the bandboxes in Cincinnati and Philadelphia and some other places, he’d hit 70 homers a year. He wasn’t just a power hitter. He was a good hitter. He loved to talk hitting. If he had hit behind me and [Joe] Morgan, he’d have driven in 500 or 600 more runs.”
Former manager and catcher Joe Torre
“Willie was a left-center, right-center hitter. The ballparks he played didn’t aid him. He hit 660 home runs, but he had to earn every one of them at home. The Polo Grounds was short down the lines, but in the gap, they were very deep. And he played at Candlestick. After noon, the ball would fly to right field, but you could shoot a bazooka off in left field some of those nights and the ball wouldn’t go anywhere.”
One night in Milwaukee in 1961, Mays hit four home runs in one game.
Simmons
“The wind knocked another one down. Otherwise, he would have had five.”
Torre
“Willie didn’t like to wait in the box. He wants you to throw the ball right now. There were times where I’d put a sign down, but I wouldn’t put anything down. And Willie would talk to you. He’d say, ‘I know what you’re doing. I know what you’re doing.’ It was impossible not to love him even though he scared you to death because he was so good. One time, I tried to distract him by talking to him. I asked him a question at the plate, I don’t remember what it was about, maybe about a restaurant, and while answering the question, he hit the ball out of the ballpark. Then he sort of made a half turn to me as he started to first base and told me, ‘I’ll finish the story later.'”
Bench
“Willie would come to the plate and he was swinging his bat back and forth as only Willie could. And every time he swung this way, he’d go back this way [toward the catcher], he would be looking for the sign. There was no one doing the drums or banging trash cans back then. But Peanuts Lowrey [the Giants first-base coach] was telling him what pitch was coming. So I’m squatting back there, and Willie steps out of the box, looks at me and says, ‘Are you going to call a signal or what?’ And I said, ‘As soon as you stop looking back here.’ And he laughed and said, ‘Oh, you got me! Oh, you got me!'”
Most of that power came from Mays’ legendarily strong hands.
Baker
“I once went up to him behind the batting cage as a rookie. I asked him, ‘Why do you play me right behind second base? I’ll hit that ball over your head.’ Willie said, ‘Boy, because you choke up on the bat. You ain’t strong enough to hit that ball over my head. That’s why I play you right behind second base.’ Then he showed me his hands. The muscle between his thumb and his forefinger looked like a golf ball in there. He said, ‘Boy, let me see your hands.’ I had nothing. He said, ‘That’s why I play you behind second base.’ So I immediately went to squeezing hand grips to get that muscle in there.”
Valentine
“When you shook Willie’s hand, you were shaking a hand — a man’s hand. It’s him, Rico Carty and Hank [Aaron]. Willie’s hand would engulf your hand. It gulped it up.”
Duane Kuiper, former major league and Giants broadcaster
“The truth is that those guys who played in the ’60s all had huge, strong hands — Mays, Aaron, [Willie] McCovey, [Frank] Robinson, [Orlando] Cepeda. They were all like dairy farmers who milked cows by hand. With those guys, you had to get your hand in there first or they’d crush it. My dad always told me, ‘You have to win the handshake.’ But with Willie, you couldn’t.”
Bench (who has his own enormous hands)
“Willie’s hands are so thick. When we played golf, we both had the oversized grips. He’d come over, grab my clubs and say, ‘These feel good.'”
Rose
“Willie also had giant forearms. Look, I’m as big as Willie Mays [both around 5-11 and 170-190 pounds]. And he hit 660 homers and I had 160.”
The Glove
Mays won 12 Gold Gloves. Consider this, though: They didn’t begin being awarded until 1957; he could have won 16. He had tremendous speed, incredible range and got as good a jump on the ball as anyone ever.
Former Giants pitcher Steve Stone
“He was the best center fielder in the game when he was 39 years old. It’s truly amazing how long he was able to maintain his skills.”
Mays’ signature was the famous basket catch: Instead of catching the ball in front of his face as did and does every other outfielder, Mays would often nonchalantly catch it at his hip.
Bench
“And he never missed one. He was so effortless. Back then, you wanted to put mustard on him. But that was just his natural ability and the grace he had in performing. Almost every game it seems like he made an amazing play. You could have two had outfielders, put the other in the infield, because Willie covered it all.”
McCarver
“[Cardinals teammate] Curt Flood was the best I’ve ever seen against the wall. He was better than Willie against the wall. But Curt played deep. Willie didn’t play deep; he played shallow. Willie never went to the wall. Willie was the wall.”
Alou (who played left or right field next to Mays for six years)
“I found myself at times watching the game like a fan would watch a game. A ball would be hit and I would say, like a fan or a broadcaster, ‘Is he really going to catch this one?’ He had an amazing first step. He was covering half of the field by himself.”
Baker
“Chris Speier [who was a rookie with the Giants in 1971] told me stories that Willie was calling pitches from center field for the pitcher to throw a certain hitter. He and Hank Aaron, in those days, they didn’t have scouting reports. They could tell where a guy was going to hit the ball by his hand position: If his hands were outside the zone, he was going to pull the ball. If his hands were in tight, he was going to try to inside-out the ball to the opposite field. Those guys studied all the hitters back then. They didn’t need a scout.”
Hall of Famer Tony Perez
“The best play I ever saw him make was the ball that Vada Pinson hit to right-center field at Candlestick. Willie ran the ball down, collided with [right fielder Bobby] Bonds and caught the ball. I don’t know how Willie caught it.”
Mays
“Leon [Wagner] could hit, but you never knew where he might catch the ball. So one day, there’s a high fly ball. I go after it. I think Leon is going to catch it, but he’s just standing there like this [hands at his side]. So I jumped, I put my foot right in his belt buckle. I caught the ball and came down on him. I thought, ‘Oh no, I cut him.’ I went to him and said, ‘Leon, pull up your shirt. Let me see where I cut you.’ There were no marks. I don’t know how. I hit him with my spikes in his belt buckle. No one is going to believe that catch.”
Mays made perhaps the greatest defensive play — and the most famous — in World Series history when he robbed the Indians’ Vic Wertz with a running catch in deep center field in 1954.
Hall of Famer Bob Feller
“That really wasn’t that great of a catch. As soon as it was hit, everyone on our bench knew that he was going to catch it … because he is Willie Mays.”
Jackson
“I have the last glove that Willie Mays wore. It says 1954 World Champions on it. I bought it.” For how much? “Let’s just say, if I sold it, it would take between $200,000-$250,000. I bought it because no one used a glove better than Willie Mays.”
The Arm
Mays had a tremendously strong and accurate arm, which is critical for a center fielder. A throw to the plate has to have enough carry to get it over the mound.
Bench
“You already knew there were guys that you never, ever ran on. You had respect for those guys. Willie charged the ball as well as anyone who ever played baseball. He was able to judge the speed of the ball so well so he could scoop and throw.”
McCarver
“Johnny Keane [the Cardinals manager from 1961 to 1964] told us in meetings, ‘Don’t run on Willie, he will throw you out. He’s baiting you. He wants you to think he can’t, and then he does.’ Willie figured it out. Willie always figured everything out.”
Mays
“They [people in baseball] told me, ‘You can’t do round-robin.’ That’s throwing out a runner at first base, second base, third base and home in the same game. I said, ‘I can do that. What are you talking about?’ So, we’re at Dodger Stadium, [Don] Drysdale hits the ball over the middle for a base hit. I watched him, he put his head down and started walking to first. I thought, ‘I got him.’ So I threw him out at first. He cussed me something fierce. The next inning, Maury Wills went to third, he tried to score on a fly ball, and I threw Maury out at home. The next inning, Willie Davis tried to go from first to third. I threw him out at third. Jim Lefebvre hits a ball in the gap. I had him out by five feet at second base, [Giants second baseman] Tito [Fuentes] had him, but he didn’t squeeze the ball. Tito was crying at second base. He knew what I was trying to do. So I had to call time. I go in and told Tito, ‘Don’t worry, it’s not the end of the world.’ He said, ‘Yes, it is. I know round-robin was right there in your grasp.’ I told him, ‘Don’t worry, I’ll get it the next time.’ But, I never came close … but I would have had it that day.”
Hall of Famer and former Mays teammate Orlando Cepeda
“Ave Maria! I never saw anyone go from first to third on Willie’s arm. Felipe Alou was a great right fielder, but Willie once told Felipe on a fly ball hit by Willie Kirkland to right center, ‘Let me take it, let me take it.’ So Willie caught the ball at the 390-foot sign in right-center field, and he threw a low throw, on the line, in the air, all the way to third base. Willie had the greatest throwing arm I’ve ever seen, even better than [Roberto] Clemente’s arm.”
Marichal
“Before every game that me [or] Gaylord [Perry] pitched, we’d have a meeting about how we were going to pitch the other team that night. It was always a three-man meeting. Me, the catcher and Willie Mays. He used to help us on how to pitch all the hitters on the other team. Willie knew exactly what to do with each hitter.”
The Legs
It wasn’t just the stolen bases that separated Mays from other players, especially other power hitters. It was his innate feel for baserunning, going first to third, scoring from second on a single, legging out one of the 140 triples he hit, including a league-best 20 in 1957.
Perez
“He was one of the greatest. He would go from first base to third on a ball to right center. He didn’t even have to look at the third-base coach. He was his own coach.”
McCarver
“He was a terror on the bases.”
Alou
“I was always told that Jackie Robinson was the only baserunner better than Willie, but I used to wonder, ‘How can you be a better runner than Willie Mays?’ I saw him score standing up at least 10 times on a wild pitch that wasn’t 10 feet from home plate.”
Hall of Famer Willie McCovey (who usually hit behind Mays in the lineup)
“Willie would start to run to second on the wild pitch or a passed ball, then go back to first because he knew they’d walk me with first base open. Oh, Willie saw it all.”
Rose
“Willie had great instincts on the bases and he was always aggressive. I was an aggressive baserunner also. I developed my baserunning skills watching Willie Mays play.”
Bench
“Willie was hitting 50 homers so you can’t afford to have him running and getting hurt all the time. You can say 29th [all time in steals when he retired], but he could have easily moved into the top 10. And on a single, it would have been strange if he didn’t go first to third. He had one of the best turns rounding second or third you could possibly have. With his agility, he made the most perfect turns.”
Jackson
“After I retired, I took Willie to the eye doctor several times. He had early glaucoma. One day, we’re driving and I asked him about [Jose] Canseco going 40-40 [homers and stolen bases in one season]. I said to Willie, ‘What do you think of those guys going 40-40? You did 30-30 a couple of times.’ Willie said, ‘Oh, hell, 40-40, that’s nothing. I could have done 50-50 any time. I wanted to steal my bases when it mattered, for the team.'”
Cepeda
“The greatest baserunner I’ve ever seen. He made triples look easy. I used to hit behind Willie in the order. When he was on base, I would watch him run. I tried to mimic him, to do what he did on the bases. But I couldn’t. No one could.”
Baker
“I thought I had a pretty good arm. I thought I was going to throw Willie out at third base one day. I had him out. He ran right in the way of the ball, it hit him in the shoulder. I got an error, and he scored. I swear to God, he looked back, he saw where the throw was, he just ran right into the path of the ball. I told the umpire, ‘He can’t do that!'”
The Say Hey Kid
Willie Mays is a character. He is supremely confident, even arrogant at times, but also self-deprecating and playful, always up for a laugh. And his laugh, that wonderful laugh, that high-pitched voice that didn’t fit his physique or mystique. He was so revered by teammates, but also by opponents. So much so that Dodgers manager Walter Alston, more than once, while managing the NL All-Star team, had Mays make out the starting lineup.
Mays
“Walter told me, ‘Willie, you know these guys better than I do, you make the batting order.’ So I hit myself leadoff, Roberto [Clemente] hit second and Hank [Aaron] third. I figured I’d get on, Roberto would get me over and Hank would get me in.”
Griffey Jr.
“The first time I met him I was 17, playing in the Instructional League. I couldn’t believe it was happening. I was told, ‘Willie Mays wants to meet you.’ I was like, ‘Oh, s—.’ So I started talking to him. I missed the first two innings of the Instructional League game because I was talking to Willie Mays. But my manager didn’t care. He said, ‘He’s going to learn more talking to Willie Mays than he’s going to learn playing in his damn game today. Let him talk as long as he likes.” And what did Mays tell Griffey that day that Griffey will never forget? “He said, ‘You’re going to be good. You’re going to be real good.’ … He is such a caring person. He told me, at age 17, to call him if I needed anything. He didn’t have to do that. But I would have my dad call him first. I couldn’t just call Willie Mays.”
Torre
“[First baseman] Bill White was playing for the Cardinals. He and Gibby [Hall of Fame pitcher Bob Gibson] went to San Francisco in the offseason. Bill was invited to Willie’s house for dinner, and he asked Gibby if he wanted to go. Bob said, ‘I’d love to go, I’ve never met Willie Mays.’ They ring the doorbell. Willie comes to the door. In the offseason, Gibby always wore glasses, but he didn’t wear them when he pitched. So Willie opens the door, he says hello to Bill, then he says, ‘Who is this?’ Bill said, ‘Willie, this is Bob Gibson.’ Willie didn’t say hello to him, all he said was, ‘You wear glasses!? And you don’t wear them when you pitch? Are you crazy? You’re going to hurt somebody!'”
Mays wasn’t good to only the stars.
Marichal
“The first time I met Willie was the day I was called up to the big leagues for the first time, July 10, 1960. Willie was so good to me, but he was so good to everyone. He took me out to dinner, but he took everyone out to dinner. He used to take teammates to a clothing store. And we’d all come home with a suit, shirts, a coat, slacks, shoes. Willie was a great teammate.”
Baker
“He was great to all us young guys, guys of all colors. Willie gave me my first McGregor glove, back when gloves were made out of kangaroos. That’s outlawed now.”
Bench
“The most special moment of all for me was the 1968 All-Star Game at the Astrodome. I am sitting at my locker, straight across from Willie. And I am not moving. I am 20 years old. I don’t want to [accidentally spike] anyone; I don’t want to act like I belonged there. Willie walked across from his locker to mine and says, ‘You should have been the starting catcher.’ That was it. That was all I needed. The validation. The validation I got from Willie. It was an honor to be around him. The joy he brought. He was the guy you emulated in every way. He was everything that baseball should be … the Say Hey Kid, man.”
Griffey Jr.
“I once went past [the visiting clubhouse manager’s office at AT&T Park] and Willie was sitting in there with Willie McCovey. I just tried to slide by, and Willie [Mays] came out and said, ‘Hold up, hold up. Come in here. You got enough home runs to be in this room.’ That made me feel important.”
Rose
“My first All-Star Game was in 1965, and my locker was in between Willie Mays and Hank Aaron. And I thought, ‘What the hell am I doing here sitting between these guys?’ Willie went out of his way to make me feel a part of the team. I never forgot that.”
Mays is a great storyteller.
Mays (on facing Satchel Paige for the first time in 1949)
“Satch would pitch to anyone that would pay him. I hit a double off the wall against him. The guy behind me, Jimmy Zapp, hit a home run. So later in the game, Satch told his third baseman, ‘Let me know when that little boy come back up.’ I thought he was talking about somebody else. So, in the third, I heard the third baseman say, ‘There he is.’ I didn’t know who they were talking about. The catcher said, ‘They’re talking about you.’ I said, ‘No way.’ So Satch walked halfway to home plate and said, ‘Little boy,’ and I said, ‘Yes sir.’ Satch was much older than I was. Satch said, ‘Little boy, I’m not going to trick you, I’m going three fastballs, then you’re going to go sit down.’ I said, No one way could he throw the same pitch three times and I don’t hit it. He threw me the three damnedest fastballs. I didn’t come close to hitting it. He said, ‘Little boy, now you can go sit down.'”
McCarver
“I wrote in my book that Willie had the thickest fingers I have ever seen, and that he buffed his fingernails every day. Every day. He came up to me and said, in that high-pitched voice, ‘I heard that you said that I buffed my nails every day. You’re right, I do!'”
Griffey Jr.
“I think it was during spring training [with the Reds], I was invited to dinner at the governor’s house [in Florida]. Jeb Bush was the governor. I was going to fly down there, but my manager [Bob Boone] told me, ‘Ah, I don’t think I can let you go.’ I told him, ‘But Willie Mays invited me.’ [Boone] immediately said, ‘Oh OK, go ahead.’ That’s how important Willie Mays is.”
Jackson
“The first time I heard of Willie Mays was the Vic Wertz catch, 1954, I was 8. We had a black-and-white TV. You had to put a quarter in the TV to watch it for an hour. That’s how you paid for it. As I grew up, I was a Willie Mays fan, but you had to be a Dodger fan if you were Black because of Jackie [Robinson] and Roy [Campanella] and Newk [Don Newcomb] and Junior Gilliam. But when Willie came to town, I begged my dad to take me to the game. After the game, my dad took me down to where the players’ bus was. I crawled on the ground, I crawled through people’s legs, and I watched Willie get on the bus. That was such a wonderful experience for me.”
Hall of Fame pitcher Jim Palmer
“The first time I ever met him was in January 1969 at a golf event. His partner in the tournament was Joe Namath, who slept in on the day of the tournament and didn’t show up on the first tee. So Willie didn’t play. Willie and I were in the Long Drive Contest together. Here I am, this skinny pitcher, and here’s Willie Mays, so strong. So I won the Long Drive Contest. Willie, in that high-pitched voice, told me, ‘There’s no way you can outdrive me. Your ball hit the sprinkler head.’ I said, ‘Well, all I know is that my drive went 310 and yours went only 290.’ Willie just laughed.”
Perez
“One day at Candlestick, Jim Maloney was pitching for us [the Reds]. He threw really hard. Really hard. He also liked to mess around, to have fun, with players on the field. So Willie got in the box and Maloney went to his mouth like he was going to throw a spitball. Instead he threw a fastball right down the middle. Willie took it. He ended up walking. When he got to first, I told him, ‘You know, Maloney is crazy.’ And Willie laughed said, ‘I know. He’s crazy. He’s pretending to throw a spitball. He doesn’t need it. He’s going to kill someone with that. But it’s not going to be me because I won’t be in there!'”
Torre
“A friend of mine, Dave, he lives in Hawaii. He’s from the Bay Area, he’s a big Giants fan, a big Willie fan. And his birthday is the same day as Willie — May 6. So two or three years ago, I said, ‘I’ll let you know when I’ll be in San Francisco and we’ll watch a game together.’ Unbeknownst to Dave, I arranged for Willie to be at the ballpark. I pulled Willie out of the stands. He talked to Dave for an hour. Willie couldn’t do enough for him. He signed anything. He took pictures with him. The capper for me was Willie says, ‘What else do you need?’ So Willie called Mike Murphy, the clubhouse guy for the Giants, and says, ‘Murph, get me a shirt.’ Willie took the shirt off his back, signed it and gave it to Dave. He literally gave him the shirt off his back. Dave has never stopped talking about it obviously. He tries to buy me breakfast, lunch and dinner every time I see him.”
Palmer
“The first batter I faced in my first All-Star Game [1970] was Willie Mays … the guy I watched growing up in New York and California. I mean, really, Willie Mays. And I struck him out on three high fastballs. I saw him at the Hall of Fame years later and he told me, ‘I was told you were wild. I was told you were a kind of a headhunter.’ I wasn’t wild or a headhunter, but the first time I faced Willie was such a thrill.”
Alou
“That was the thing about Willie. No matter where he was playing, he always played with passion, whether for the Giants, or a barnstorming game, or spring training or playing stickball in the streets of New York with kids. His concentration was like no one I had ever seen. And he loved me for some reason. He called me Chico because it was hard for him to say Felipe. Sometimes he called me Phillip. But even today, if we’re near each other, he hears my voice from another room, he recognizes me and says, ‘Hey, it’s Chico!'”
Kuiper
“Willie filled in and did the color commentary a few times many years ago before Mike [Krukow, Kuiper’s current broadcast partner on Giants games] started doing games. So I’m the play-by-play guy. It’s Easter Sunday. Robby Thompson strikes out on a check swing with the tying run at third to end the game. So, on Easter Sunday, Willie says, on the air, ‘Jesus Christ!’ I looked at him. I have to talk because I’m the play-by-play guy, and all I could say was, ‘We’ll be back with Reverend Willie Mays, right after this.'”
Bench
“The first time we played against him, the first time he came to the plate, he said, ‘Hey, how are you, kid?’ He loves to tell the story about how he was on second base and he says, ‘Man, they [the Reds] got this hotshot catcher, I hope we get a base hit because I’m going to knock his ass into the dugout.’ Then he said, ‘We got a base hit, I come around, and … have you slid into a tree? I went backwards. I went back backwards.’ I can’t tell what he said after that, but it was like, ‘Get this off me, you broke my blanking leg.'”
Jackson
“The first time I met Willie Mays was my rookie year in spring training playing for the A’s in 1969. Willie came over to the A’s bench and said, ‘Where’s Reggie Jackson? Who’s this kid Reggie Jackson? I want to see Reggie Jackson.’ I met him. That was a huge, huge deal for me, for him to come over to our dugout and ask for me. I got to shake his hand. So Catfish Hunter and Sal Bando told me, ‘Reggie, do your Willie. Do your Willie.’ I could run like him. I could do that pigeon-toed walk that he had. He cracked up laughing. Willie had his glove tucked under his arm. I said, ‘What’s this thing on your glove? Buck?’ He said, ‘That’s my nickname.’ I said, ‘That’s really cool.’ After that, Catfish and Bando and [Rollie] Fingers and [Joe] Rudi always called me Buck ever since then.”
Valentine
“[As the manager of the Rangers], I had to go to tell Willie at an Old-Timers’ Game that Joe [DiMaggio] would not come out on the field unless he came out last and was introduced as the greatest living player. So Bobby Bragan made me tell Willie, Mickey [Mantle] and the Duke [Snider], one by one, that Joe would have to come out last. Willie, with that high-pitched voice, said, ‘Well, Joe actually thinks he is the greatest living player. So maybe we should let him.’ I told Willie, ‘I am so happy that you said that.'”
Palmer
“One time at the Hall of Fame, after the induction ceremony, we all went back to the hotel for hors d’oeuvres. At our table was Yogi [Berra], Whitey [Ford], Duke [Snider], Tommy Lasorda, Willie Mays and me. Now that’s a table. So Lasorda asks Yogi what he wants to put on his tombstone. Yogi said, ‘Oh, that’s easy: It’s over.’ You know, it’s never over until it’s over. Willie cackled. Willie has a great laugh.”
Valentine
“In 2000 [during the playoffs], Willie was holding court in the Giants’ clubhouse. I asked Murph [Mike Murphy, the Giants’ home clubhouse manager] if he could bring Willie over to talk to my guys. So, Willie comes over and talks to my players. Incredibly, some of them didn’t know who he was. This was 2000! That was worse than disgraceful.”
Rose
“They didn’t know who Willie Mays is? Do they know who God is?”
Griffey Jr.
“I have a jersey signed by Willie. It says: ‘From One Kid To Another Kid. The Say Hey Kid.’ That is prominently displayed in my man cave at home. People come in and look at it and say, ‘Is that him?’ I said, ‘Yes, that’s Willie Mays.'”
Will Ohio State claim the Big Ten title in 2025, or will Penn State finally break through in 2025?
The college football season is less than a month away, and it looks like these two perennial Big Ten powers will have the best shot to not just win the conference, but the College Football Playoff, too. But it won’t be without stiff competition from Oregon, which won the league last season.
In addition to the Big Ten’s playoff race, eyes will be on UCLA and Nico Iamaleava following his exit from Tennessee.
We get you caught up on the Big Ten by breaking down the conference’s CFP outlook, power rankings, must-see games, top freshmen, key transfers and numbers to know.
Jump to:
CFP outlook | Must-see games
Freshmen | Transfers
Numbers to know
Power rankings
CFP outlook
Should be in: Penn State, Ohio State, Oregon. Defending national champion Ohio State always will be penciled into the CFP field, even after losing 14 NFL draft picks, tied for the most in team history. The Buckeyes have wide receiver Jeremiah Smith, considered the nation’s best overall player, as well as safety Caleb Downs, arguably the No. 1 defender. But it’s Penn State, not Ohio State, that enters the fall as possibly the Big Ten’s strongest national contender. The Nittany Lions replace less than the other three teams that reached last year’s CFP semifinals, as they return quarterback Drew Allar, running backs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen, and several standout defenders. Oregon is amazingly being overlooked a bit after winning the Big Ten in its debut season and becoming the only FBS team to finish the regular season at 13-0. The Ducks lost 10 NFL draft picks but will return a talented defensive front seven and add several top transfers and recruits.
In the running: Illinois, Michigan, Indiana. Illinois returns the core players from its first 10-win team since 2001, and it could become this year’s version of Indiana, especially with more explosiveness on offense and stout line play. If the Illini can navigate September road tests against Duke and, yes, Indiana, look out for Bret Bielema’s squad. Michigan hopes to rejoin the CFP mix after its strong finish to last season, leaning on a talented defensive front and possibly incoming freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood, the nation’s No. 1 recruit. Indiana largely will be counted out, but not here, as the team retained several All-Big Ten players from the historic CFP team, and added quarterback Fernando Mendoza and several notable offensive linemen from the portal. Iowa occasionally found itself in the four-team CFP mix and could take a leap if transfer quarterback Mark Gronowski elevates the offense.
Long shots: Nebraska, USC, Minnesota, Washington. Nebraska has had a tough time merely making bowl appearances in the Big Ten, but could be primed for a jump in wins, as quarterback Dylan Raiola returns to lead the squad. The Huskers are also helped by a favorable schedule that doesn’t include Ohio State or Oregon, and has no true road game until Oct. 11. USC is still seeking its first CFP appearance under Lincoln Riley and could enter the mix if it plays better away from home, where it dropped four games by seven points or fewer. Minnesota coach P.J. Fleck is also seeking better results in one-score games and told ESPN that the CFP “isn’t a pipe dream.” Washington is only two years removed from a national title game appearance and brings back a team with upside, particularly dynamic young quarterback Demond Williams Jr. — Adam Rittenberg and Jake Trotter
Must-see games
From Bill Connelly’s Big Ten conference preview
Here are the 10 games — eight in conference play, plus two huge nonconference games — that feature (A) the highest combined SP+ ratings for both teams and (B) a projected scoring margin under 10 points. That second part is key, as neither Penn State (two) nor Ohio State (three) have many projected close games on the docket.
Texas at Ohio State (Aug. 30) and Michigan at Oklahoma (Sept. 6). The biggest games of Weeks 1 and 2 are Big Ten vs. SEC affairs, though they take on different flavors. Texas-Ohio State is a rematch of last year’s delightful CFP semifinal, in which Jack Sawyer’s late scoop-and-score ended a Longhorns comeback attempt. Both the Longhorns and Buckeyes will almost certainly start out in the AP top 5. Meanwhile, Michigan and Oklahoma are looking for ways back into the top 10, and both will bring remodeled offenses to the table.
Illinois at Indiana (Sept. 20). If things play out as forecasted and we have two different races going on in the Big Ten — the big names vying for the conference title and the pool of 14 other teams fighting among each other for another playoff spot — then this is the biggest Illinois-Indiana game of all time. The loser will have to be just about perfect to get to 10-2 and a potential bid.
Oregon at Penn State (Sept. 27). The Week 5 slate is overloaded with big games, but this will almost certainly be the biggest. The Ducks and Nittany Lions will almost certainly be a combined 7-0 at this point, as neither team will have played a top-50 team.
USC at Illinois (Sept. 27) and Indiana at Iowa (Sept. 27). Like I said, there’s just way too much going on in Week 5. Goodness.
Michigan at USC (Oct. 11). By this point, Michigan will have already played at Oklahoma and Nebraska and could be 5-0 and in the top 10, or 3-2 and flailing. USC will have just visited Illinois and could be 5-0 or flailing as well. This game will be huge, for any of about 17 different reasons.
Penn State at Ohio State (Nov. 1). In terms of combined SP+ ratings, this is the single biggest game of the 2025 regular season.
Indiana at Penn State (Nov. 8). Whether PSU is coming off of a win or a loss in Columbus, the Nittany Lions will desperately need to move on and avoid a hangover.
Ohio State at Michigan (Nov. 29). Proof that even in a 12-team CFP era, a rivalry loss can send you into a spectacular, existential tailspin. (And proof that you might be able to steer out of it a little better now.)
Three freshmen to watch
Malik Washington, QB, Maryland
Washington already arrived on campus facing immense expectations after the four-star Maryland native opted to stay home and attend the school he grew up idolizing. His spring game showing — he went 12-of-18 for 170 yards and two touchdowns — did little to dispel any optimism he could become the face of a program resurrection in College Park. At 6-foot-5, 231 pounds, Washington is a true dual-threat with arm talent and mobility. His accuracy and ability to change arm angles should mesh well in an RPO scheme. Carving out a path to contention in the Big Ten won’t be easy, and he’ll need to beat out UCLA transfer Justyn Martin for the starting gig, but Washington has game-changing tools.
Bryce Underwood, QB, Michigan
No freshman in college football faces more scrutiny than Underwood, who arrived in Ann Arbor as the highest-ranked player in the class and signed a multi-million dollar NIL deal after a lengthy pursuit by his hometown Wolverines. Underwood’s spring was more solid than exceptional, and he went 12-of-26 for 187 yards in the spring game, which included an 88-yard touchdown, but also a pair of sacks and several overthrows. Michigan coach Sherrone Moore hasn’t named a starter and has been consistent that Underwood is battling with Jadyn Davis, Jake Garcia, and Mikey Keene for the role, but Michigan’s offense has its highest ceiling with Underwood at the helm. At 6-foot-4, 210 pounds, Underwood combines raw speed, clean footwork in the pocket and natural arm strength. The ball jumps out of his hand and he’s adept at keeping plays alive on the run to move the chains. It might require some patience — which isn’t easy in Ann Arbor — but Underwood has the ceiling of a dominant, Heisman Trophy-contending signal caller.
Dakorien Moore, WR, Oregon
Moore arrived in Eugene as the highest-graded high school receiver ESPN has evaluated since 2020, then dazzled Oregon teammates and coaches alike during the Ducks’ spring practices. Moore won the 2025 Under Armour All-America Game MVP and totaled more than 4,000 receiving yards at famed Duncanville High School in Texas. He’s also a decorated track star, and his blazing speed and savvy route-running ability should find a home in Oregon’s offense on Day 1. Moore’s offseason work has only helped solidify the high expectations. He could quickly become a reliable option for new starting QB Dante Moore, and his role in the offense only becomes more important with Evan Stewart set to miss at least a significant portion of the season with a knee injury. — Billy Tucker
Three top transfers
These selections are based on Max Olson’s ranking of the top 100 transfers from the 2024-25 transfer cycle.
Transferring from: Cal | Top 100 rank: 4
HT: 6-5 | WT: 225 | Class: Redshirt sophomore
Background: Mendoza was an incredible find for Cal, an under-the-radar three-star out of Miami who was committed to Yale until the Bears extended a late offer. He developed into one of the best young QBs in the country after taking over as Cal’s starter for their final eight games in 2023. As a sophomore, he was the ACC’s third-leading passer with 3,004 passing yards and raised his completion percentage to 69% (second in the ACC) while scoring 18 total touchdowns with just six interceptions over 11 games. He led all FBS quarterbacks with 41 sacks last season but overcame inconsistent protection to have a really productive year with strong performances against Miami and Auburn and a 98-yard game-winning drive to beat rival Stanford. Mendoza is viewed as one of the most promising QBs in the country by several personnel departments. — Olson
Scout’s take: Mendoza is one of the most undervalued players at the position in college football. He’s 6-5, a great athlete and is tough as nails. He was sacked a lot and kept getting back up. Mendoza can make all of the throws and is a sneaky, crafty athlete. — Luginbill
What he brings to Indiana: Indiana coach Curt Cignetti values production over potential when it comes to recruiting the transfer portal. He’s getting plenty of both with Mendoza as his successor to Kurtis Rourke. Mendoza is looking to take his game to another level in the Big Ten and help make the Hoosiers a contender again in Year 2 under Cignetti. — Olson
Transferring from: Tennessee | Top 100 rank: 5
HT: 6-6 | WT: 220 | Class: Redshirt freshman
Background: Well, this was a stunner. While there were rumors of discontent in late December at the winter portal deadline, it was still shocking that Iamaleava left a College Football Playoff team and hit the open market during the spring in search of a better deal than the one he had with the Vols. Tennessee invested a ton of money in Iamaleava and even successfully fought off an attempted NCAA investigation into the seven-figure agreement he struck with the Vols as a five-star high school recruit. He had an awful lot of hype to live up to as a redshirt freshman starter in 2024 and put together a solid year, throwing for 2,616 yards, completing 64% of his passes with 22 total touchdowns and nine turnovers while leading the Vols to 10 wins. Iamaleava closed out the season with a rough CFP performance, completing 14 of 31 passes for 104 yards in a 42-17 first-round loss to eventual national champ Ohio State, and still has plenty of room to grow. But it is exceptionally rare that a QB of his caliber becomes available in the spring. Iamaleava is looking to keep progressing and play up to his first-round potential. — Olson
Scout’s take: There is no debating that Iamaleava is one of the most physically talented quarterbacks in college football. He was highly coveted out of high school because of his stature, arm strength and athletic ability. During his one season as a starter, he showed flashes of brilliance but also mediocrity. He threw 19 touchdowns, but four of the nine touchdowns in SEC play came against Vanderbilt and seven came against Chattanooga and UTEP. Consistency is where he has to improve. He has the arm strength and overall talent to be a terrific vertical deep ball passer, but he has been wildly inconsistent in terms of accuracy in that regard. There are still tools here, but he will likely be playing on a team that is less talented than the one he just left. Meaning: He’s going to have to be better than he has ever been. — Luginbill
What he brings to UCLA: This ordeal might have played out perfectly for the Bruins. They’re getting a potential top-10 quarterback on a reduced contract who will generate a lot of attention for this program entering coach DeShaun Foster’s second year. Iamaleava’s arrival will cost them App State transfer QB Joey Aguilar, who reentered the portal after going through spring practice with the Bruins and landed at Tennessee. The challenge going forward for Iamaleava is learning OC Tino Sunseri’s system and winning over his new teammates this summer, but he’ll certainly be motivated after his split with the Vols. — Olson
Transferring from: Nevada | Top 100 rank: 7
HT: 6-8 | WT: 309 | Class: Redshirt junior
Background: The massive pass protector was a three-year starter for the Wolf Pack primarily at left tackle and brings invaluable experience with more than 2,300 career snaps. He did not surrender a sack during his junior season and picked up honorable mention All-Mountain West recognition. World is viewed as a potential first-round draft pick by NFL scouts entering his final season of eligibility and is making the move up to the Power 4 to prove he merits that praise. — Olson
Scout’s take: World is a huge presence with very good pass pro skills at left tackle. He has added 42 pounds since high school and retained his initial quickness and flexibility. World does a terrific job riding defenders past the pocket with his length and mobility. He plays balanced with good feet and shows his basketball background mirroring defenders in his set. He’s not as effective versus the run. World’s pad level can get high, but he’s still very productive at washing defenders down to open run lanes. — Tucker
What he brings to Oregon: Offensive tackle was one of the critical portal needs for the Ducks. Ajani Cornelius graduating and Josh Conerly Jr. potentially going pro made adding starter-caliber tackles a priority for Oregon, and it was able to hold off Texas A&M and Nebraska in this battle. A one-year addition makes sense to help give the Ducks’ young big men more time to develop. — Olson
Numbers to know
4: The number of seasons it has been since defending national champion Ohio State won the Big Ten title, the Buckeyes’ longest drought since a six-year stretch from 1987 to 1992.
8: The number of Big Ten quarterbacks who were in the top 25 of the ESPN300 recruit rankings at some point in their high school careers, the most of any conference. Those QBs are Michigan’s Bryce Underwood (No. 1 in 2025), Oregon’s Dante Moore (No. 2 in 2023), Ohio State’s Julian Sayin (No. 9 in 2024), Ohio State’s Tavien St. Clair (No. 10 in 2025), Nebraska’s Dylan Raiola (No. 11 in 2024), USC’s Sam Huard (No. 16 in 2021), UCLA’s Nico Iamaleava (No. 23 in 2023) and Michigan’s Jake Garcia (No. 24 in 2021).
+200: Ohio State’s odds of winning the Big Ten championship, according to ESPN BET, which are the longest odds for the Big Ten favorite in at least 15 years. Penn State is the second choice at +225. — ESPN Research
Power rankings
0:52
Should Penn State be the No. 1-ranked team in the country?
Heather Dinich joins “Get Up” to share why she believes Penn State should be the top-ranked team going into the new college football season.
If not this year, then when for the Nittany Lions? As other Big Ten powers sift through QB questions, Penn State features three-year starter Drew Allar, who has the makeup to be a first-round pick next spring. Throw in a dominant running game spearheaded by Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen and a talented defense now led by veteran coordinator Jim Knowles, the Nittany Lions have the pieces to win the Big Ten — and even the national title.
The defending national champions lost a record-tying 14 players to the NFL and must fill significant holes at quarterback and along both the offensive and defensive lines. But Ohio State also has arguably the nation’s best two players in wide receiver Jeremiah Smith and safety Caleb Downs, other standouts such as wide receiver Carnell Tate and linebacker Sonny Styles, and notable transfers such as tight end Max Klare (Purdue). Never count out the Buckeyes.
3. Oregon Ducks
Dillion Gabriel, one of the most prolific QBs in recent college football history, is gone, leaving tantalizing former five-star recruit Dante Moore in charge of the Ducks’ offense. A season-ending knee injury to star wide receiver Evan Stewart stings. But Oregon still has enough on either side of the ball to defend its Big Ten title.
After winning 10 games for the first time since the Big Ten championship season of 2001, Illinois has its sights on the team’s first CFP appearance. Quarterback Luke Altmyer and outside linebacker Gabe Jacas are part of an impressive returning group that must navigate tricky September trips to Duke and Indiana before a home showdown with Ohio State on Oct. 11.
All eyes will be on five-star freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood, who has already been turning heads in Ann Arbor with his work ethic and dual-threat abilities. The Wolverines have the running game and figure to be stout defensively once again. If Underwood can supercharge the passing attack, the Wolverines could be back in contention for a playoff spot.
How will Coach Cig (Curt Cignetti) follow a historic debut that featured a team-record 11 wins and a once unthinkable CFP appearance? Indiana retained All-Big Ten players on both sides of the ball, and added quarterback Fernando Mendoza and several notable offensive linemen in the portal. The key for IU will be better line-of-scrimmage play in its biggest games, as the schedule doesn’t look nearly as favorable.
7. The Hawkeyes are banking that transfer QB Mark Gronowski, who won an FCS national title, can jumpstart a perennially moribund Iowa offense. Iowa’s offensive line, led by standout center Logan Jones and tackle Gennings Dunker, should be elite. If the defensive-minded Hawkeyes can finally find a way to put up points, they could be dangerous.
After reaching a bowl game for the first time since 2016, Nebraska is targeting much bigger goals under third-year coach Matt Rhule. The Huskers have a favorable schedule with no true road games until Oct. 11 and no Ohio State or Oregon. Quarterback Dylan Raiola has had a full offseason to develop under playcaller Dana Holgorsen.
9. USC Trojans
The Trojans lost five games by one score last season, tied for the most in the FBS. Playing from ahead will be critical for the Trojans, who trailed in 11 of their 13 games in 2024. The defense under first-year coordinator D’Anton Lynn took a step forward last season, but the Trojans need more improvement — they still allowed 5.83 yards per play (15th in the Big Ten).
Could Minnesota be a wild-card CFP contender? “This isn’t a pipe dream,” coach P.J. Fleck told ESPN, pointing to a record in one-score games that, if improved, could elevate the team’s outlook. Minnesota has a solid defense, a potential two-way star in Koi Perich and will lean on first-year starting quarterback Drake Lindsey for a spark.
The Huskies are excited about the potential of sophomore QB Demond Williams Jr., who passed for 374 yards and totaled five touchdowns in Washington’s bowl loss to Louisville. If Williams builds off that performance, the Huskies could surprise offensively, with 1,000-yard rusher Jonah Coleman flanking him in the backfield.
12. After a tough first year and a relatively quiet offseason, Michigan State could creep up on teams during coach Jonathan Smith’s second year. The Spartans made some key portal additions at offensive line and wide receiver to help second-year starting quarterback Aidan Chiles. Areas to improve include takeaways and better play on the road, where MSU was 1-4 in 2024.
13. Athan Kaliakmanis is back after becoming the first Rutgers QB since 2015 to pass for more than 2,000 yards in a season. Defensively, the pass rush could be a strength with the arrivals of transfers Eric O’Neill (James Madison) and Bradley Weaver (Ohio), who were both all-conference performers. Rutgers ranked just 84th nationally with only 22 total sacks last season.
14. UCLA Bruins
The Bruins have gone all-in on quarterback Nico Iamaleava, the Tennessee transfer whose return home could signal a shift in how UCLA will operate under coach DeShaun Foster. If Iamaleava meets expectations and a defense with many new players and coaches shines, UCLA could rise in these rankings after a season where it had wins against Iowa and Nebraska.
15. Injuries robbed any chance Wisconsin had of fielding a viable offense in 2024, as the Badgers ranked 102nd nationally in passing (197 yards per game) on the way to losing their final five games. The onus is now on transfer quarterback Billy Edwards Jr. (Maryland) and new coordinator Jeff Grimes to turn that around.
16. After bottoming out on offense in 2024, Northwestern had its most successful winter transfer portal haul, which included quarterback Preston Stone (SMU), wide receiver Griffin Wilde (South Dakota State) and several linemen. The Wildcats face a huge opener at Tulane and several tricky Big Ten road contests, but bowl eligibility should be within sight.
Coach Mike Locksley recently admitted he lost the locker room in 2024 over which players to pay, as the Terrapins stumbled to a 1-8 Big Ten record. Maryland doesn’t have much coming back offensively, either, though keeping four-star QB Malik Washington in state has given the Terrapins an intriguing player to rebuild around. The true freshman is battling UCLA transfer Justyn Martin and redshirt freshman Khristian Martin for the starting QB job.
18. Barry Odom is back in the Power 4 following an impressive run at UNLV. He takes over a Purdue team with almost an entirely new roster and a schedule that includes Notre Dame and Ohio State. Moderate improvement is the goal for Odom, whose track record on defense and with personnel suggests better days are ahead. — Rittenberg, Trotter
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Alden Gonzalez
Max Muncy returned to the Los Angeles Dodgers‘ lineup on Monday, Aaron Judge was back in the New York Yankees‘ batting order on Tuesday, and with that, the two teams that met in last year’s World Series — and had been underperforming to varying degrees in recent weeks — received valuable reinforcements for the stretch run.
They’re far from alone.
Now that the trade deadline has passed and less than two months remain in the regular season, contending teams throughout the sport are counting on key players returning from injury in the days and weeks ahead, hoping they might make the difference between missing out on October and winning it all. And given the landscape, which many consider as wide-open as ever, they just might.
Below is a look at some of the most impactful players on their way back.
Expected return date: The injury to Álvarez’s right hand has featured plenty of drama and required a lot of patience. The Astros initially diagnosed it as a muscle strain in early May and began the process of ramping him up by late June. Then came lingering pain, prompting a visit to a specialist and the revelation that the outfielder was dealing with a fractured bone. Perhaps, though, there is a light at the end of this tunnel. Álvarez resumed hitting off a tee and taking soft toss a couple weeks ago and hit on the field at the team’s spring training facility on Tuesday. The Astros are going to be really careful this time around, but there is hope he can help them down the stretch.
What he means to the team: The Astros lost Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker over the offseason and have received just 121 plate appearances from Álvarez — and a paltry slash line of .210/.306/.340 — yet they’re on pace for their eighth American League West title in nine years. You would be hard-pressed to find a more impressive development this season. When healthy, Álvarez is on par with Judge and Shohei Ohtani among the game’s most imposing hitters. Given how well the Astros have pitched, plugging Álvarez back into the middle of their lineup — with an ascending Jeremy Peña, a better-of-late Jose Altuve and what they hope is a rejuvenated Carlos Correa — could put them in the conversation for the best team in the AL, if not all baseball.
Expected return date: Right-hander Assad, out all year with a left oblique injury he reaggravated around late April, made his third rehab start on Wednesday, looking sharp while pitching into the fifth inning. His next step could be joining the rotation. Taillon is right behind him. The 33-year-old right-hander has been dealing with a right calf strain for a little more than a month but pitched three innings in a Triple-A rehab start on Sunday. He gave up seven runs, but he also came out of it feeling healthy. That’s all that matters at this point. Cubs starters not named Matthew Boyd and Shota Imanaga have combined for a 4.63 ERA this season. And at this point, there is no outside help coming.
What they mean to the team: The Cubs did not land the controllable front-line starter they desired before the trade deadline. The starter they did acquire, Michael Soroka, pitched two innings in his debut on Monday, then landed on the injured list with right shoulder discomfort. Now, the Cubs need to make up for what they lack in their rotation internally. Assad fashioned a 3.73 ERA in 29 starts last year and was effective both out of the rotation and in the bullpen in 2023. Taillon, a proven innings eater who consistently pounds the strike zone, is probably as good a complement to Boyd and Imanaga as the Cubs can get.
Expected return date: Bieber, who had Tommy John surgery, has not taken the mound in a major league game since April 2, 2024, but the former Cy Young Award winner’s return is approaching. The right-hander made his fifth rehab start — and first since being acquired by the Blue Jays — on Sunday, striking out six batters across five innings. He’ll make another start on Saturday, then perhaps one more after that. Then the Blue Jays will see if they can get the front-line starter they envisioned when they unloaded promising pitching prospect Khal Stephen to pry Bieber from the Cleveland Guardians last week.
What he means to the team: The Blue Jays are counting on several offensive contributors returning in the not-too-distant future, including George Springer, Andrés Giménez and, they hope, Anthony Santander. But Bieber is the wild card. If he’s close to what he was even after winning the AL Cy Young Award in 2020 — a guy who put up a 3.13 ERA and struck out 459 batters in 436⅔ innings from 2021 to 2024 — he can join Kevin Gausman and José Berríos to form a really solid rotation trio in October. But the initial returns from Tommy John surgery can be tricky. Just ask Sandy Alcántara.
Expected return date: Bohm took a sinker to his left side on July 12 and later learned he had suffered a fractured rib, but the 29-year-old third baseman has been hitting ground balls and taking batting practice and will now venture out on a rehab assignment. He could return to the Phillies’ lineup this month. Nola went on the injured list for the first time in eight years because of a sprained right ankle in mid-May, then was diagnosed with a stress reaction in one of his ribs a month later. Now, Nola is finally on his way back. He went 3⅔ innings in his second rehab start on Wednesday and will make one or two more before rejoining the rotation.
What they mean to the team: Bohm and Nola have served as catalysts while these Phillies have ascended to near the top of the sport in recent years, and it’s hard not to see them having a massive say — good or bad — in October. The Phillies need them to be healthy, but they also need them to be better. Bohm was slugging just .391 before going down. Nola, meanwhile, carried a 6.16 ERA through his first nine starts — one year after receiving Cy Young votes. The Phillies’ rotation has been one of the game’s best this season, and it can handle an ineffective Nola if it absolutely has to. But the offense needs Bohm’s production.
Expected return date: Burger is navigating his second stint on the IL this season, this time because of a left quad strain, but he has played in a couple of rehab games and could return before the end of the Rangers’ current homestand. Carter, an outfielder, was shut down with back spasms on Saturday, and though there’s currently no reason to believe it’s a serious injury, it’s worrisome when you consider how back issues plagued him in 2024.
What they mean to the team: The 2025 Rangers do everything well except the one thing they felt they could do best: hit. And while the offense has been a lot better lately, the Rangers could use more production from Burger and Carter in hopes of grabbing a playoff spot in a wide-open AL. Burger has slashed just .228/.259/.401 in his first year in Texas, but could at the very least platoon with fellow first baseman Rowdy Tellez, who has been a godsend since signing a minor league deal in early July. Carter, a rookie sensation during the stretch run of the team’s championship season in 2023, was slashing just .238/.323/.381.
Expected return date: Gasser, the 26-year-old left-hander who excelled in his first five major league starts last year, is in the late stages of his recovery from Tommy John surgery. His fourth rehab start came Sunday, during which he threw 16 pitches in the game and 19 in the bullpen. The Brewers are building him back up as a starter, so he still needs to increase his pitch count. But he’s on track to join a loaded Brewers pitching staff before the end of August. So is rookie All-Star Jacob Misiorowski, who suffered a bruised left shin last week but isn’t expected to miss much more than the minimum amount of time. Outfielder Jackson Chourio, who landed on the IL with a hamstring strain last week, could be back by the end of the month, too.
What he means to the team: The Brewers acquired Gasser as part of the package that sent former closer Josh Hader to San Diego in summer 2022 and watched him shine as a rookie in 2024, putting up a 2.57 ERA with one walk in 28 innings. But then his ulnar collateral ligament gave out, triggering a long rehab that is finally reaching its conclusion. The Brewers see him as a starter long term, but there might not be room for him in the 2025 rotation. If that’s the case, he can be an impact lefty out of the bullpen. The Brewers acquired only one traditional reliever in Shelby Miller before the trade deadline, largely because they believe starters like Gasser, Chad Patrick and Tobias Myers can help them out of the bullpen when it matters most.
Expected return date: It has been a long, slow climb back for Greene and the right groin strain he suffered, for a second time, on June 3. The right-hander seemed to be approaching a return in July, but he experienced lingering pain and had to shut it down once more. Now, though, his return seems imminent. Greene navigated a third rehab start on Sunday, during which he struck out seven batters in 3⅓ innings, and is scheduled to ramp up to 80 pitches on Friday. After that, he could rejoin the rotation. With Nick Lodolo shut down with a blister that materialized on his left index finger in his Monday start, the Reds need Greene now more than ever.
What he means to the team: Here’s what Greene has done since the start of last July: 1.92 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 133 strikeouts, 30 walks, 112⅔ innings. Those are the numbers of not just a traditional front-line starter, but of one of the best pitchers in the game. The Reds have hung around all year, getting better starting pitching than they probably anticipated, but less offense than they hoped. They’ve underperformed their projections, but they still sit just three games back of a playoff spot. Greene — and Lodolo, who might require only a minimum stint on the injured list — could make the difference.
Expected return date: For the better part of two months, questions swirled around the state of King’s health and whether he would pitch at all this season. The 30-year-old right-hander was dealing with a thoracic nerve issue in his right shoulder, an exceedingly rare injury for a pitcher. He simply had to wait for the pain to subside, with no idea when it would. Now, though, he is on the doorstep of returning to the major leagues. King threw 61 pitches in 3⅓ innings in a rehab start on Sunday, allowing six runs but also striking out five batters. His next start is expected to come this weekend against the Boston Red Sox.
What he means to the team: Padres general manager A.J. Preller put together an epic trade deadline, upgrading at catcher, adding two competent bats to the lineup and, most notably, landing another impact arm for the bullpen. His starting-pitching additions, though, were depth players; JP Sears and Nestor Cortes are not expected to make playoff starts. What the Padres need is for King — their Game 1 starter in last year’s postseason, their Opening Day starter this year and owner of a 2.59 ERA in his first 10 starts — to join Dylan Cease, Yu Darvish and Nick Pivetta in the rotation to truly make this one of the most well-rounded teams in the sport. It seems that will happen.
Expected return date: Kopech, nursing a right knee injury, has been throwing bullpen sessions and is expected to be activated once he’s eligible to come off the 60-day injured list in late August. Left-hander Scott, dealing with elbow inflammation, has also been throwing off a mound and doesn’t seem far off, either. Yates’ situation, though, is a little hazier. The 38-year-old right-hander had been dealing with lower back pain for a couple weeks before landing on the IL at the start of August. There is no timetable for his return, though it seems possible that he, too, can be back before the end of the month.
What they mean to the team: The Dodgers have once again absorbed a slew of injuries throughout their staff, having already deployed 38 pitchers — one year after setting a franchise record by using 40. Their bullpen has led the majors in innings for most of this season. At the deadline, though, the front office acted conservatively, adding just one bullpen arm, right-hander Brock Stewart, along with reserve outfielder Alex Call. The approach showed confidence in the arms the Dodgers have coming back, especially in the bullpen. But Scott and Yates, their two big offseason signings, have combined for a 4.21 ERA this season. Right-hander Kopech, meanwhile, has appeared in just eight games. They’ll have a lot to prove.
Expected return date: Optimism around Meadows emerged on Monday, with some light running in the outfield — a subtle sign he is progressing once again toward a rehab assignment. Meadows, 25, missed the first two months of the season with inflammation in his upper right arm that he later learned was a product of issues with his musculocutaneous nerve. He spent most of June and July in the lineup, then landed on the injured list once more, this time because of a right quad strain. The hope is that he can be back playing center field before the end of August.
What he means to the team: Meadows accumulated 11 outs above average in center field from 2023 to 2024 despite playing in only 119 games. In that stretch, he also stole 17 bases, provided a .729 OPS — with fairly even splits against lefties and righties — and accumulated 3.1 FanGraphs wins above replacement. As the Tigers march toward their first division title in 11 years and vie for a first-round bye, they find themselves longing for Meadows in several ways. The hope is that he’ll be a much better hitter than he showed earlier this season, when he slashed .200/.270/.296 in 137 plate appearances.
Expected return date: Megill has been absent from the Mets’ rotation since the middle of June because of a right elbow sprain but threw 20 pitches in a simulated game at Citi Field on Sunday. He is expected to extend to two innings in another session on Thursday. A rehab assignment will follow shortly thereafter, putting Megill on track to potentially rejoin the Mets’ rotation later this month. Megill was solid before going down, posting a 3.95 ERA in 14 starts, and the Mets’ rotation could really use some of that right now.
What he means to the team: When Megill got hurt on June 14, the Mets’ rotation easily led the majors with a 2.82 ERA. Since then, the group has posted a 5.12 ERA, ranked 26th. Lately, it has only gotten worse. The Mets have lost eight of their past nine games, and in that stretch, the starters have allowed 34 runs (32 earned) in 43⅔ innings. Sean Manaea, Frankie Montas, Clay Holmes and Kodai Senga have all had their struggles, to varying degrees, of late. And though Megill certainly can’t fix that alone, another capable starter would certainly be welcomed.
Expected return date: Miller, limited to just 10 starts this season, cruised through his first rehab start on Friday, tossing four scoreless innings, and is scheduled to stretch to five innings on Thursday. Given that he has gone on the IL because of right elbow inflammation twice this year, requiring a cortisone shot and a platelet-rich plasma injection, the Mariners will play it safe — Miller will make two more rehab starts before being activated. Robles dislocated his left shoulder while making an incredible catch in San Francisco on April 6 and is way ahead of schedule. He’s expected to begin a rehab assignment next week and could return before the end of August.
What they mean to the team: Robles is the Mariners’ leadoff hitter and spark plug. Over a 77-game stretch after Seattle signed him as a free agent last summer, he slashed .328/.393/.467. And if he can produce something close to that, a Mariners offense that added Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suárez before the trade deadline and has received a dominant season from Cal Raleigh will be as deep as it has been since Jerry Dipoto took over baseball operations 10 years ago. The Mariners haven’t received as much from their rotation as they would have expected this year, but a staff of Logan Gilbert, Luis Castillo, Bryan Woo, George Kirby and Miller — 12-8 with a 2.94 ERA while healthy last year — still rivals the best in the game.
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David Hale
If there’s one thing we’ve learned from the debate between the Big Ten, SEC, ACC and Big 12 over the future of the College Football Playoff, it’s that committees are awful. They get it wrong nearly every year despite the fact that they’ve mostly gotten it right.
Of course, Top 25 lists are no better. You know who votes in those? Reporters and coaches. Reporters clearly don’t know ball, and coaches don’t have the time to watch the games. We can’t trust them either.
There was a time when we entrusted computers with assembling a proper ranking of teams. The BCS crunched the numbers based on some nebulous inputs and spat out the results. And while it might feel like ChatGPT could step in now and become a neutral arbiter, it would also be one more step toward our eventual demise as a species. If humans can’t rank college football teams, it’s just a matter of time before we’re all controlled by a sentient version of those coffee delivery drones.
No, there is really just one honest way to evaluate college football’s 136 FBS teams, and that is to sort through all the data, talk to a host of coaches and players and analysts, and then unilaterally put them into tiers.
And with that, we give you the most official, guaranteed-to-be-accurate, tiered preseason ranking for the 2025 season.
Jump to a section:
Cream of the crop | Teams that are hot | Big Ten’s ticking clocks
Room for improvement | Could be talked into them
Tier 1a: A great matchup for Week 1 and/or the championship game (two teams)
Last season, Ohio State won a national championship and, according to virtually every coach we’ve asked, the Buckeyes were the most talented team in the country all along. Only, if the playoff had waited one more year to expand, Ohio State would’ve missed out, and Ryan Day might’ve been looking for a job.
There’s a fun thought experiment to be done with those facts in mind: Did expanding the playoff give more teams an opportunity to win it all, or did it simply ensure that the best teams wouldn’t miss their chance due to something fluky (or, in Ohio State’s case, something that has become increasingly common)?
We pose this question because it may apply to the Buckeyes again in 2025. With a bevy of veterans off to the NFL from the 2024 national championship team and a fresh-faced quarterback taking over the offense, it’s entirely reasonable to think Ohio State might need a few weeks to get rolling again. The only problem is the Buckeyes don’t have an inch of runway: Texas is waiting in Week 1.
In another era, this game wouldn’t just be the marquee event of the opening weekend but a turning point in the season. The loser would then face another 11 games while residing on a knife’s edge. A second loss — to Michigan, perhaps — would doom the Buckeyes. Texas would still have an entire SEC slate ahead with no margin for error. And yet, it could still be entirely true that the loser of this game would have a claim to the title of the country’s most talented squad.
Of course, this is the 12-team playoff era (and soon to be the 14-, 16- or, if Eli Drinkwitz has his way, 30-team playoff era) which means that the first showdown between Ohio State and Texas will be but an appetizer, and both schools will remain the most likely to hoist the trophy in late January.
Is that better? Would the 2024 campaign have been more fun if Ohio State had been left out because of the loss to Michigan?
With all due respect to the folks in Ann Arbor nodding their heads like they’re at a Pantera concert, the verdict seems to be that the sport benefits when the best teams get as many bites at the apple as they need to close the deal.
Tier 1b: The rest of the best (three teams)
At this year’s SEC media days, we posed a question to one of the league’s upper-tier coaches: How many teams each season can really win it all?
His answer: Four. Maybe five.
This is the secret that few in college football like to discuss, because it invariably quashes hope for lots of other fan bases, and aside from five-star recruits, hope is a program’s most valuable commodity.
But this coach is certainly not alone. It’s a theory posited again and again by folks inside the sport. Just who those four or five teams are may change from year to year, but no matter how much the playoff expands, the number of teams who realistically have a chance to still be standing at the end remains mostly fixed.
That’s sort of the point of why we’re ranking teams by tiers. There are lots of “good” teams, but how many are really within striking distance of winning a national title? Probably four or five.
Now, we could be wrong about the makeup of that five-team upper tier. There’s a first time for everything, after all. But if we’re looking at top talent, a path to the playoff, recent history and we’re properly reading our Magic 8 Ball, then Georgia, Oregon and Penn State are at the front of the line (alongside Ohio State and Texas).
The potential pitfall for each? QB play.
Georgia turns things over to Gunner Stockton, who started last year’s playoff loss to Notre Dame but also drives a 1985 Ford F-150. Aside from a T-bird with a gold eagle on the hood, there’s no better vehicle a QB can drive to provide assurance that he knows what he’s doing.
At Oregon, Dan Lanning turns to Dante Moore, the former prized recruit for UCLA who learned behind Dillon Gabriel last season. Moore has ample talent to get the job done, and if he struggles early, there’s at least a 20% chance Phil Knight bribes Tom Brady to come out of retirement, don a fake mustache and use the name “Dom Frady” to lead the Ducks to a title.
And then there’s Drew Allar, who enters his second year with offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki alongside arguably the most talented supporting cast in the Big Ten. The pressure is on for Allar — who has been very good but not entirely elite — to finish the job. We can’t help but feel like Penn State replacing the old press box at Beaver Stadium is exactly the type of curse-ending decision Allar and the Nittany Lions needed to change their fortunes.
Tier 2: Playoff expectations (six teams)
Alabama
Clemson
Miami
Michigan
Notre Dame
LSU
Anything less than a playoff appearance would feel like a serious disappointment for the teams in Tier 2. None feel like an absolute lock, though.
Michigan’s schedule is certainly accommodating. The only team on the docket to finish 2024 with more than seven wins is Ohio State, on the final Saturday of the regular season. But Michigan also has QB questions, with freshman Bryce Underwood considered the likely starter. Last season’s offensive woes led to five losses on the heels of a national title, so getting the QB choice right is an imperative.
Notre Dame and Alabama are breaking in new QBs, too. CJ Carr has plenty of hype and the Irish probably have their best skill position depth in Marcus Freeman’s tenure. The Tide lost four games last season for the first time since Nick Saban’s debut campaign. Patience will be thin in Tuscaloosa, making Kalen DeBoer’s handling of the quarterback room a tricky situation. Ty Simpson, a once-prized recruit, has the inside track, but freshman Keelon Russell is incredibly talented. Could this look a little like the 2016 opener, when Blake Barnett got the start only to be benched in favor of a freshman by the name of Jalen Hurts after two drives?
LSU hasn’t won an opener since 2019. Clemson has lost three of its past four openers. Something has got to give when the two teams face off in Week 1. Clemson can probably survive a defeat, even if Dabo Swinney’s critics will begin the chorus once again that he’s past his prime. LSU will have a tougher time recovering with a schedule that still includes Florida, Ole Miss, South Carolina, Texas A&M, Alabama and Oklahoma. Brian Kelly’s head exploding with fire like the red guy in “Inside Out” should at least provide some entertainment if things go south in Baton Rouge.
Then there’s Miami, a team with all the talent to make a title run but enough self-inflicted wounds over the years to wonder if it’ll be the likes of Stanford or Virginia Tech that trip up the Canes.
(Note: It’ll be Syracuse. We all know it’ll be Syracuse.)
Tier 3: Someone in the SEC has to lose games, too (six teams)
Florida
Oklahoma
Ole Miss
South Carolina
Tennessee
Texas A&M
Fun fact: All 16 SEC teams rank among the 20 hardest schedules in the country, according to ESPN’s metrics, from the grueling path for Florida (No. 1) to the easy (relatively speaking) slate at Missouri (No. 20).
We know you’re shocked to learn that life is difficult in the SEC. The league so rarely mentions its depth or strength of schedule, and its coaches are reticent to suggest that their teams deserve any additional benefit of the doubt as a result. Oh wait, they’re actually contractually obligated to mention it in every interview.
Lane Kiffin drew the ire of some ACC fans when he said another SEC coach suggested it’d be easier to play Clemson each week than an SEC schedule. That may have been an exaggeration, but according to ESPN Research, a slate that included eight games against Clemson plus a reasonable nonconference schedule would work out to be almost exactly as difficult as the schedule Florida plays this season.
The Gators play eight teams that have spent time in the AP top 10 in the past two seasons, all of whom have rosters made of a majority blue-chip recruits. By SP+, the Gators get six of the top 13 teams (and also Long Island). It’s a schedule DJ Lagway called “fun” and Florida fans call “less enjoyable than a root canal.”
Now, others may parse the data differently, but the bottom line is inarguable: No one in the SEC has an easy ride to the playoff, which makes Tier 3 likely to include at least two playoff teams and at least two schools that fire their coaches, and the difference between those camps will be a few plays one way or the other.
The SEC is designed to eat itself, which is one of the reasons it has pushed so hard for increased playoff access. There’s simply not a scenario in which every school that invests in winning, has a playoff-caliber roster and whose fans expect to make a playoff run, will actually do so.
Tier 4: Last year’s playoff surprises (four teams)
Arizona State
Boise State
Indiana
SMU
In 2023, Arizona State and Indiana each won three games, Boise State fired its coach after a 5-5 start, and SMU was in the American Athletic Conference and lost in a bowl game to Boston College.
In 2024, they were all playoff teams.
The initial 12-team playoff was truly remarkable in that it didn’t simply reward 12 blue bloods. It coincided with an abrupt change in the sport that allowed complete afterthoughts in September to play meaningful football in December and January.
Yes, playoff expansion was the key here, but it’s true, too, that the era of name, image and likeness, the transfer portal, and bloated conferences that equate to disparate schedules set the stage for far more volatility in the standings than ever before. The top end of the bell curve may remain static at four or five elite teams, but the meat of it keeps getting wider.
Indiana and Arizona State both went from three wins to double digits. In the entire playoff era (minus the COVID year), that had only happened one other time at a Power 5 school (2017 Michigan State, who promptly regressed to 7-6 the next year).
SMU came within a hair’s breadth of winning the ACC title. TCU, Utah, UCF, Cincinnati, BYU, Houston — the past six teams to move up from a non-power league — were a combined 16-38 in conference play in their first years in a Power 5 conference, and none had a winning record.
Since firing Andy Avalos after that 5-5 start, Boise State has won 15 of 18 games, with all three losses coming to Power 4 foes.
Life moves quickly in college football these days. The big question as this foursome looks to return to the College Football Playoff is whether the pendulum swings just as fast in the other direction.
(Note from Tallahassee: It does.)
Tier 5: So hot right now (four teams)
Illinois
Louisville
Texas Tech
Utah
We probably shouldn’t use last year’s playoff as an indication of what the future may hold. It’s a one-year sample size, after all. But 2024 gave us six first-time playoff teams, and odds are, we’ll get two or three more this season. And when it comes to predicting who those teams might be, the schools in Tier 5 are the hottest things since Hansel hit the runway in “Zoolander.”
There’s plenty of buzz that this year’s Indiana could be Illinois. If the implication is that the Illini could be a surprise playoff team out of the Big Ten, it makes sense. But the key difference here is Indiana came out of nowhere to go 11-1 last regular season. An Illinois run into the playoff would be far less shocking. The Illini went 10-3 last season, with two losses coming to playoff teams. They also beat Michigan (transitive property national champs!) and South Carolina (though that doesn’t count because the SEC doesn’t care about meaningless bowls). Bret Bielema has built something that looks an awful lot like his old Wisconsin teams — veteran QB, heavy dose of the run game behind a massive O-line, stout defense — capable of competing with nearly anyone. Of course, those Wisconsin teams were notable for being routinely good but never quite great. How high is the ceiling for Bielema now?
Utah enters this season as a trendy pick in the Big 12 thanks to some returning stars, an expectation that last year’s bad luck has to turn, and finally opening a season with someone other than the hollowed-out shell of Cam Rising at QB.
If luck kept Utah from the Big 12 race last season, it may have kept Louisville from the playoff. The Cards lost four games — three to top-15 teams — all by a touchdown or less, along with a defeat at the hands of Stanford that will go down as possibly the single dumbest way to lose a football game that didn’t involve throwing a shoe.
And if you’re not psyched for Texas Tech this year … how much cash would it take to change your mind?
Tier 6: The Big 12 is the new ACC Coastal (four teams)
Baylor
Iowa State
Kansas State
TCU
Ever play credit card roulette? When the bill comes at a restaurant, everyone at the table puts their credit card into a hat, then the server picks one at random to pay the entire bill. That’s effectively how the Big 12 is looking right now. (In this analogy, though, Texas Tech should probably be picking up any checks.) Look at the betting markets and every team in the conference is projected to win between 5.5 and 8.5 games this season.
So, throw the names into a hat and pull one out. You’re as likely to get it right as we are.
Tier 7: Flying beneath the radar like Tom Cruise in ‘Maverick’ (five teams)
Georgia Tech
Iowa
Kansas
Minnesota
Washington
We’ve seen a lot of change in college football in recent years, which has made Iowa’s offense such a needed through line connecting the modern version of the sport with an older generation. Granted, that generation probably lived through the Great Depression, but let’s not split hairs. Nevertheless, there were signs that even the Hawkeyes might be taking a small step forward, as the offense scored 40 points in a game four times last season — something Iowa had done just four times in the previous four seasons combined. Now, Iowa has a QB it likes in South Dakota State transfer Mark Gronowski, the defense should be stout again, and nobody punts like the Hawkeyes.
Kansas was 1-5 in games decided by a touchdown or less last year but also had wins over three straight ranked teams in November. With a more settled offensive approach and the return of Jalon Daniels, the Jayhawks look like a potential sleeper.
Not counting the 2020 COVID-19 season, Minnesota is one of just 15 teams to win 60% of its Power 5 games. That’s more impressive than it sounds. It’s better than Washington, Tennessee, Ole Miss, Miami and Texas A&M. The Gophers enter 2025 with a ton of intriguing pieces led by Koi Perich and Darius Taylor, and while the schedule includes road trips to Ohio State and Oregon, there’s certainly a path for PJ Fleck to get Minnesota back to the 10-win plateau.
Fun fact: Since Brent Key took over as head coach at Georgia Tech on Sept. 26, 2022, the Yellow Jackets have as many wins against ranked foes (six) as Clemson and more than Penn State (five), Oklahoma (four) or LSU (four). In fact, they have more than Miami, Colorado, Boise State, Indiana and BYU combined — and all five of those teams finished last year in the top 25. Of course, in that same span, Georgia Tech has losses to Virginia, Bowling Green, Virginia Tech and Vandy. So, it’s a work in progress.
Washington is a work in progress, too. In Year 1 under Jedd Fisch, the Huskies floundered to a 6-7 record, including losses to Washington State and Rutgers. But Demond Williams Jr. looks like a difference-maker at QB, and it’s worth remembering that at Arizona, Fisch went from a completely noncompetitive 1-11 in Year 1 to 5-7 in Year 2 with one of the most improved teams in the country. Washington may still be a year away, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Huskies take a big leap forward now before threatening in the Big Ten in 2026.
Tier 8: Regression to the mean (the bad kind) (five teams)
BYU
Duke
Missouri
Syracuse
Vanderbilt
This group of teams won 32 games against Power 4 opponents last season. Twenty-four of them (75%) came by a touchdown or less.
Missouri and Duke each won four games in which they trailed in the fourth quarter.
BYU and Syracuse each won double-digit games despite being outscored against FBS opponents last season.
Vanderbilt is Vanderbilt.
Look up and down the list of luck-influenced metrics, and these teams raise more red flags than Kanye’s Bumble profile.
Perhaps these guys all fend off the fickle college football gods for another year, but if the “Final Destination” movies have taught us anything, it’s that Ali Larter should be in more movies. But if there’s another thing they taught us, it’s that you can only avoid a disastrous fate for so long.
Tier 9: Regression to the mean (the good kind) (four teams)
Auburn
Florida State
NC State
Virginia Tech
This spring, ESPN’s Bill Connelly dug into three metrics that often rely heavily on luck: turnovers, close games and injuries. His findings: A lot went wrong for Florida State last year.
Now, it’s admirable that Connelly dug deep into the numbers, ran some regression analysis and employed NASA-level computing power to identify this. Another way to do it would’ve been to simply watch five minutes of FSU football last season, because at any given moment, something ridiculous was going wrong for the Seminoles.
You simply don’t go from 13-1 to 2-10 without the football gods deciding to do some serious smiting.
Everything that could go wrong did go wrong, from Connelly’s stats — FSU was 128th in turnover luck, 90th in close-game luck and 110th in lineup consistency — to the types of things that were probably a bit more predictable (settling for DJ Uiagalelei at QB over Cam Ward).
It should be noted that, once again, FSU has rolled the dice on a QB with a checkered past, and Tommy Castellanos seems intent on taunting the aforementioned football gods, but at the very least, some of that bad luck has to go the other way in 2025, putting the Seminoles on course to improve by a good measure.
The same can be said for Virginia Tech. The Hokies are 1-12 under coach Brent Pry in games determined by a touchdown or less, but it’s also worth noting that last year marked the first time since 2010 the Hokies didn’t lose a single regular-season game by more than 10.
NC State adds to the ACC’s run of bad luck last season, with Grayson McCall‘s early-season injury upending the offense and a 45-point year-over-year swing in points off turnovers for a team that lost five games by 10 or fewer points.
But the team that might have the best chance to turn the disappointments of 2024 into a serious playoff run in 2025 is Auburn. Jackson Arnold takes over at QB for an offense loaded with skill-position talent. The defense should be solid. Then look at the luck-based numbers: Auburn was 124th in turnover luck and dead last in close-game luck, which covered up the fact it was among the best teams in the country in success and explosive play rate differential. The pieces are in place, the Tigers just need a little more luck to make a run at 10 wins.
Tier 10a: The Big Ten’s ticking clocks (three teams)
Matt Rhule, Lincoln Riley and Luke Fickell each seemed like absolute home run coaching hires. Setting aside Riley’s 11-1 start to his tenure at USC, the three are now a combined 40-39 overall with a 23-32 record in Big Ten play since Dec. 1, 2022. That has put all three in a position to make 2025 a must-win year. What exactly “winning” means probably differs a bit by school, but the pressure is on.
Nebraska might be best equipped to make the leap to the next level. Dylan Raiola goes into Year 2 running the offense, but it’ll be his first full season with Dana Holgorsen calling the plays. Add in that, at some point, Nebraska’s run of awful luck in close games has to swing the other way and it’s not unfathomable that the Huskers are in the mix for a playoff bid.
For Wisconsin, it’s a return to the Badgers’ foundations as Fickell has abandoned plans to bring an up-tempo passing attack to the stodgy Big Ten and will build around the ground game.
At USC, Riley lost a ton of big-name talent in the portal and will move forward with a QB who has 19 touchdown passes and 17 turnovers in nine career starts against teams with a winning record.
They can’t all turn it around this year, which makes this perhaps the most interesting portion of the Big Ten’s standings.
Tier 10b: The Group of 6’s other top playoff contenders (six teams)
Liberty
Memphis
James Madison
Toledo
Tulane
UNLV
Liberty is the gold standard in soft scheduling. The Flames have the worst preseason strength of schedule in the country after finishing 2024 with … the worst strength of schedule in the country. Half of Liberty’s 12 games are against teams that were at the FCS level in 2021. It has four games against first-year head coaches. Eight games come against teams that won four or fewer FBS games last year. Jamey Chadwell should have a good team, but the schedule also should make it nearly impossible to finish worse than 10-2.
UNLV and Memphis both figure to be in contention for the Group of 6’s playoff bid, and their schedules certainly make the path a little easier. The Rebels (No. 113 schedule) have a home game against UCLA and a road trip to Boise State to contend with, but they also have eight games against teams ranked 100th or worse in preseason FPI (including six ranked 120th or worse). Memphis (No. 106 schedule strength) also has a relatively clear path. The Tigers get Arkansas — their lone Power 4 opponent — at home, miss Army, Tulane and UTSA from the conference schedule, and follow the game against the Razorbacks with five games in six weeks against teams that finished a combined 15-41 vs. FBS opponents last year. If Memphis can topple the Hogs, expect the Tigers to enter November with a top-20 ranking.
Since 2022, no Group of 5 team has won more games than Tulane (32). The Green Wave ought to again be among the best of the American in terms of talent, but the schedule is no easy task to manage. In nonconference play, Tulane hosts Northwestern, goes on the road to South Alabama, hosts Duke (and QB Darian Mensah, who transferred from Tulane after last season), then travels to Ole Miss. In conference play, Tulane gets ECU, Army, UTSA and Memphis — four of the six other American teams to make a bowl last year. If Tulane makes the playoff, it will have earned the spot.
Could Toledo make a run at the playoff? The Rockets open with a trip to Kentucky, which isn’t exactly an insurmountable hill to climb unless you’re Ole Miss. Win that and the next week against Western Kentucky, and Toledo should have a little buzz. Then check out the back half of the schedule: vs. Kent State, at Washington State, vs. NIU, at Miami (Ohio), vs. Ball State and at Central Michigan. Those six teams finished a combined 16-24 in the second half of last season.
JMU has won 28 games in three seasons since moving up from the FCS, and of its nine losses, four have come by a touchdown or less. The Sun Belt is deep, but it’s not top-heavy, opening the door for the Dukes to make a run at the Group of 6’s playoff bid.
Tier 11: Potential sleepers (seven teams)
Cincinnati
Colorado
Houston
North Carolina
Pittsburgh
Rutgers
Virginia
This tier includes Deion Sanders and Bill Belichick so, for media purposes, it should probably be Tier 1. But there are still some big questions surrounding Colorado and UNC.
For the Buffaloes, it’ll be the first time Coach Prime will have to go to battle without Shedeur Sanders or Travis Hunter. Colorado has topped 150 yards on designed runs only once in two years under Deion Sanders, and the Buffs’ 74 designed rush yards-per-game in that stretch is, by far, the worst in the country. How will Colorado adapt after losing two of the most explosive players in the country in the passing game?
UNC has completely overhauled its roster from the Mack Brown era, with Belichick dipping heavily into the transfer portal — including nearly three dozen spring portal additions. Numerous coaches who spoke with ESPN said this spring was an incredibly shallow pool of talent. Can that actually translate to wins or will 2025 be more about building a foundation than reviving the program?
Instead, it might be the lower-profile programs in this tier who have the real upside.
Virginia added transfer QB Chandler Morris alongside one of the better portal classes in the ACC and plays one of the weakest schedules of any Power 4 school this season. Louisville, Washington State and Duke are the only opponents on this season’s slate that won more than six games in 2024.
Houston showed signs of promise in Year 1 under Willie Fritz with wins over TCU, Utah and Kansas State, even if the final record was ugly (4-8). An offensive overhaul led by Texas A&M transfer Conner Weigman should help a program that finished 133rd in scoring last season.
Each of the past two seasons, Rutgers has gone 6-6 with a four-game losing streak in the mix then won a bowl game. Usually, that would count as real success at a place like Rutgers, but coach Greg Schiano clearly has higher aspirations, and the Scarlet Knights might have the talent to push for bigger things in 2025.
Cincinnati blew a big lead to Pitt in Week 2. Pitt went on to start 7-0 before injuries and a handful of close losses derailed its season. Had Cincy hung on, it could’ve opened 6-1 with a win over Arizona State on its record. Instead, the Bearcats finished on a five-game losing streak and did not make a bowl. Both teams are deeper and more experienced this season, with veteran QBs and stars on defense (Kyle Louis, Dontay Corleone).
Tier 12: Even Stevens (seven teams)
Arkansas
Boston College
Cal
Kentucky
Maryland
Michigan State
UCLA
In the playoff era, BC has finished with either six or seven wins nine times.
Arkansas is 30-31 under Sam Pittman. Not counting the COVID-19 season, it’s 20-21 vs. FBS teams. The Hogs are 21-9 vs. teams with a losing record and 9-22 vs. teams with a winning record.
Cal has finished with between five and seven wins six times in the playoff era, and it has 61 games (fifth most nationally) decided by a touchdown or less.
Since 2018, Michigan State is 41-41 — though that includes seasons of 11-2 and 4-8.
Since Mark Stoops’ second year, Kentucky is 65-63 vs. FBS opponents. From 2015 to 2023, the Wildcats were 31-29 in SEC play.
UCLA is 66-64 in the playoff era, averaging 29.6 points and surrendering 29.1 points against FBS opposition.
Now, Oscar Wilde said that consistency was the last refuge of the unimaginative, but The Rock said success was more about consistency than greatness. Who are you going to believe — some long-dead writer or the star of “Jumanji: The Next Level”?
Tier 13: Stars & stripes (three teams)
Army and Navy were a combined 22-5 last season. In 2023, Air Force won nine games. In the playoff era, the military academies have 11 10-win seasons. And they’ve done it all without NIL deals or taking transfers.
Now, if we wanted to really protect America’s interests, we’d start putting tariffs on the portal and using that money to fund academy revenue sharing.
Tier 14: Room for improvement (six teams)
Arizona
Northwestern
Oklahoma State
UCF
Wake Forest
West Virginia
Arizona and Oklahoma State were a combined 20-7 (and 14-4 in conference play) in 2023. Both fell off a cliff in 2024.
The Wildcats struggled in Year 1 under Brent Brennan, but they bring back Noah Fifita at QB and showed enough life that a step forward in 2025 isn’t unrealistic.
Mike Gundy has made it a habit of having big seasons mixed with mediocre ones in the past few years, but last year’s winless Big 12 schedule was an anomaly. Gundy is high on QB Hauss Hejny, who should at least be able to open things up a bit for the run game.
Wake Forest is getting a fresh start under new coach Jake Dickert. The roster needs work — QB and O-line are blank slates — but the Deacons bring back a talented tailback in Demond Claiborne and have the weakest schedule in the Power 4.
UCF is looking to go back to the future by bringing Scott Frost home after his dismal stint at Nebraska. Frost inherited a train wreck during his first stint in Orlando and turned things around quickly — though that was in the American, not the Big 12.
For virtually the entirety of this millennium, Northwestern has effectively put the same team on the field — shaky QB, good defense, smart players — and watched as the results either come up with 10 wins and a run at the Big Ten or a 3-9 season that’s physically painful to watch.
Aside from the surprising 9-4 season in 2023, West Virginia has won either five or six games every year since 2019.
In other words, it’s hard to feel particularly good about any team in this tier, but it’s also entirely within reason that some team here wins 10 games.
Tier 15: Group of 6 with upside (15 teams)
App State
Buffalo
East Carolina
Florida Atlantic
Fresno State
Louisiana
Ohio
North Texas
South Alabama
Texas State
Troy
UConn
South Florida
UTSA
Western Kentucky
North Texas has been a perennial six-win team, but this could be the Mean Green’s chance to make a big leap up the standings. They check-in only one spot ahead of Liberty with the No. 135th-ranked schedule in the country, miss ECU, USF, Memphis and Tulane in conference play, and after Oct. 1, they go on the road only three times — to Charlotte, UAB and Rice.
Florida Atlantic was another team snakebit by bad luck last season. As Connelly noted in his analysis of teams facing the worst luck, only one program finished 111th or worse in all three categories he evaluated: FAU. Now add new head coach Zach Kittley and QB transfer Caden Veltkamp and there’s a lot to like about the Owls’ upside.
South Alabama also had plenty of bad luck in close games. The Jaguars lost to Ohio, Arkansas State, Georgia Southern and Texas State — all teams that won eight or more games — by a combined 20 points.
Tier 16a: At least you tried (three teams)
Mississippi State
Purdue
Stanford
Stanford has won nine Power 5 games since 2021. Five of them came against teams that either finished ranked in the top 25 or were ranked there at the time of the game. Another came against Deion Sanders. Stanford makes no sense.
Mississippi State is 2-16 vs. Power 5 competition in the past two years. The two wins are by a combined 11 points. The losses are by an average of 18.
Purdue. More like Pur-don’t. We’ll show ourselves out.
Tier 16b: The lost boys (two teams)
In the past 24 months, Oregon and Washington agreed to move to the Big Ten for 40 cents on the dollar. Stanford and Cal took even less from the ACC. SMU agreed to play ACC ball for nothing, and Memphis just offered the Big 12 $200 million for an invite.
Why?
Because of zombified remains of Washington State and Oregon State.
From former Cougars QB John Mateer, who transferred, along with his offensive coordinator, to Oklahoma after last season’s surprising 8-4 finish, on seeing what became of Wazzu after the Pac-12 fell apart: “I loved my time there. I never thought I’d leave. It sucked. I couldn’t control it. I was going to play against whoever I was going to play against, but it broke my heart.”
Tier 17: They’re fine. Solid. Decent. OK. (10 teams)
Arkansas State
Bowling Green
Colorado State
Georgia Southern
Miami (Ohio)
Northern Illinois
Old Dominion
San Diego State
San José State
Utah State
Bronco Mendenhall had New Mexico on the verge of a bowl last season, so it wouldn’t be a shock if he rights the ship quickly at Utah State.
Eddie George inherits a solid squad at Bowling Green, and he’s thinking — well, either aspirationally or he’s delusional — that the Falcons can win big.
Jay Norvell has gone from three to five to eight wins in his time at Colorado State. This could be his real breakthrough season.
Unfortunately for NIU, it lost out on an easy win without Notre Dame on the schedule this season.
Tier 18: We could be talked into them (eight teams)
Coastal Carolina
Hawai’i
UL Monroe
Louisiana Tech
Sam Houston
Southern Miss
UAB
Wyoming
Hawai’i won five games and missed out on beating UCLA and UNLV by a combined five points. The Rainbow Warriors are trending in the right direction.
Louisiana Tech finished 5-8, but its first six losses of the season all came by 10 points or fewer.
ULM finished on a six-game losing streak, even wasting a chance to embarrass Hugh Freeze at Jordan-Hare in late November, which had become one of our favorite Group of 5 traditions.
Tier 19: The best entertainment you’re likely to find on a Tuesday night in mid-November (12 teams)
Central Michigan
Delaware
Eastern Michigan
Florida International
Jacksonville State
Marshall
Missouri State
Nevada
Temple
Tulsa
UTEP
Western Michigan
You might be surprised to learn that Delaware is an FBS football program beginning this season. To help with your preseason preparation, here are some fun facts to familiarize yourself with the program.
The Blue Hen is the only explicitly female mascot in FBS football (not counting Mrs. Wuf at NC State).
Delaware’s winged helmet design was created by former coach David Nelson, a former Michigan football player, who essentially cut and pasted his former team’s look.
Rich Gannon and Joe Flacco both played at Delaware.
Delaware is, in fact, an entire state and not just 18 miles of highway between toll booths in Maryland and New Jersey.
Tier 20: Participation trophies (11 teams)
Akron
Ball State
Charlotte
Georgia State
Kennesaw State
Kent State
Middle Tennessee
New Mexico
New Mexico State
Rice
Massachusetts
You know what they call the guy who finishes last in his class at medical school? They call him “doctor.” And so it is that the teams in Tier 20 are technically FBS football programs, though they’re as likely to finish with a conference championship as they are to finish medical school themselves.
Since the end of 2022, Kent State has had a head coach quit to become a coordinator for Deion Sanders (then be demoted), another get fired for taking loans from a booster and the program posting a 1-23 record, including 21 straight losses. Last season, Kent State was outgained by an average of 282 yards per game — 120 more than any other team. The Golden Flashes play Texas Tech, Florida State and Oklahoma in the first five weeks this season.
Last season, Ball State became only the fourth team of the playoff era (not counting the 2020 COVID season) to have a turnover margin of plus-2 or better and still be outscored by at least 14 points per game and outgained by at least 100 yards per game. So, what happens if the turnover luck is a little worse in 2025?
Then there’s Charlotte, a program that couldn’t even afford sleeves for its last head coach, has had only one winning season in its history, and now faces the second-most daunting schedule of any Group of 6 team in the country. Per ESPN’s metrics, the 49ers’ schedule is tougher than all but one Big 12 team.
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