Connect with us

Published

on

The Labour Party is on course for a 256-seat majority at the general election while the Tories are heading for their worst-ever defeat, according to a new poll.

In its first MRP model of the 2024 campaign, Ipsos estimated Sir Keir Starmer’s party could win 453 seats and the Conservatives 115.

Election latest: Former Dragons’ Den star endorses Labour

If correct, that would hand Labour a historic majority of 256, the biggest of any post-war government, while plunging the number of Tory MPs to record lows.

It would also mean senior Conservative figures such as Grant Shapps, Penny Mordaunt, Gillian Keegan, Johnny Mercer and Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg losing their seats.

While Labour have consistently enjoyed a 20-point lead in the polls, the Ipsos survey is the highest projection yet of what their majority could look like.

The poll also predicts the Lib Dems could win 38 seats, the Scottish National Party 15, three for the Green Party and three for Reform UK.

More on General Election 2024

According to the projection, Nigel Farage is on track to overturn a huge Tory majority to win in Clacton while former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, standing as an independent, is predicted to lose to his old party in Islington North.

Sir Keir Starmer
Image:
Sir Keir Starmer

The poll is likely to cement fears within the Conservative party of an extinction-level event.

Despite promises of further tax cuts in his manifesto, Rishi Sunak has failed to shift the dial in a campaign marred by political gaffes – notably his early exit from a D-day event.

Repeated forecasts of a Labour landslide have prompted gloom from some Tories, with the prime minister forced to insist on Monday that his party could still win the election after Mr Shapps, the Defence Secretary, conceded that defeat was likely.

In recent days, senior figures have taken to warning voters about the risk of a Labour “supermajority” in a bid to convince undecided voters to stick with them.

More than 100 seats on a knife edge

The Ipsos projection predicts a huge majority for Labour even when factoring in more than 100 seats which are “too close to call”.

The model finds 117 seats are on a knife edge as they have a winning margin of less than five percentage points.

This underlines the extent to which the number of undecided voters could change the outcome for the Tories.

Kelly Beaver, chief executive of Ipsos UK and Ireland said: “Labour is increasing its 2019 vote share across the country, especially in Scotland and the North East, while the Conservatives are losing votes in all regions – especially in the East and South of England, and across the Midlands.

“What is perhaps most concerning for them are signs in the data that they are particularly losing vote share in the areas where they were strongest in 2019.”

The poll used the multilevel with poststratification (MRP) technique to model individual constituency results based on a survey of 19,689 British adults and took place between 7-12 June.

It is the second poll released this week to use the technique, following a Survation poll on Monday that estimated a similarly massive Labour majority.

The Ipsos poll is the first MRP survey to be conducted entirely after Mr Farage announced he would be taking over as leader of Reform UK and making his eighth attempt to become an MP, this time in Clacton, Essex.

Sky’s Sam Coates asks Nigel Farage whether he will ‘categorically rule out’ joining the Conservative Party in the future.
Image:
Nigel Farage

Political scene ‘heading for significant shift’

The poll suggests Mr Farage is on course to win that seat, with his Reform UK party also picking up Lee Anderson’s Ashfield constituency and possibly one other seat with 12% of the national vote.

That puts the party level in terms of seats with the Greens, who Ipsos suggests could win in Bristol Central, North Herefordshire and Waveney Valley while losing their current seat in Brighton Pavilion to Labour.

The poll also sees the Liberal Democrats making gains in the South East and South West, increasing its number of seats to 38 and regaining its position as the third party in the Commons.

Meanwhile, Ipsos said the fate of the SNP was “still very much up in the air”, with the party running a close second to Labour in Scotland and expected to win around 15 seats, a significant reduction from the 48 seats it won in 2019.

Ms Beaver said the poll was “just a snapshot of people’s current voting intentions” and there was “still time for things to change”.

She added: “But this data, in line with most of the evidence that we have seen both in the run-up to this election and since the campaign started, in terms of the mood of the nation and real election results in local elections and by-elections, suggests that the British political scene could be heading for yet another significant shift.”

Continue Reading

UK

UK and France have ‘shared responsibility’ to tackle illegal migration, Emmanuel Macron says

Published

on

By

UK and France have 'shared responsibility' to tackle illegal migration, Emmanuel Macron says

Emmanuel Macron has said the UK and France have a “shared responsibility” to tackle the “burden” of illegal migration, as he urged co-operation between London and Paris ahead of a crunch summit later this week.

Addressing parliament in the Palace of Westminster on Tuesday, the French president said the UK-France summit would bring “cooperation and tangible results” regarding the small boats crisis in the Channel.

Politics latest: Lord Norman Tebbit dies, aged 94

King Charles III at the State Banquet for President of France Emmanuel Macron. Pic: PA
Image:
King Charles III at the State Banquet for President of France Emmanuel Macron. Pic: PA

Mr Macron – who is the first European leader to make a state visit to the UK since Brexit – told the audience that while migrants’ “hope for a better life elsewhere is legitimate”, “we cannot allow our countries’ rules for taking in people to be flouted and criminal networks to cynically exploit the hopes of so many individuals with so little respect for human life”.

“France and the UK have a shared responsibility to address irregular migration with humanity, solidarity and fairness,” he added.

Looking ahead to the UK-France summit on Thursday, he promised the “best ever cooperation” between France and the UK “to fix today what is a burden for our two countries”.

Sir Keir Starmer will hope to reach a deal with his French counterpart on a “one in, one out” migrant returns deal at the key summit on Thursday.

King Charles also addressed the delegations at a state banquet in Windsor Castle on Tuesday evening, saying the summit would “deepen our alliance and broaden our partnerships still further”.

King Charles speaking at state banquet welcoming Macron.
Image:
King Charles speaking at state banquet welcoming Macron.

Sitting next to President Macron, the monarch said: “Our armed forces will cooperate even more closely across the world, including to support Ukraine as we join together in leading a coalition of the willing in defence of liberty and freedom from oppression. In other words, in defence of our shared values.”

In April, British officials confirmed a pilot scheme was being considered to deport migrants who cross the English Channel in exchange for the UK accepting asylum seekers in France with legitimate claims.

The two countries have engaged in talks about a one-for-one swap, enabling undocumented asylum seekers who have reached the UK by small boat to be returned to France.

👉Listen to Politics at Sam and Anne’s on your podcast app👈       

Britain would then receive migrants from France who would have a right to be in the UK, like those who already have family settled here.

The small boats crisis is a pressing issue for the prime minister, given that more than 20,000 migrants crossed the English Channel to the UK in the first six months of this year – a rise of almost 50% on the number crossing in 2024.

France's President Emmanuel Macron speaks at the Palace of Westminster during a state visit to the UK
Image:
President Macron greets Commons Speaker Sir Lindsay Hoyle at his address to parliament in Westminster.

Elsewhere in his speech, the French president addressed Brexit, and said the UK could not “stay on the sidelines” despite its departure from the European Union.

He said European countries had to break away from economic dependence on the US and China.

Read more:
French police forced to watch on as migrants attempt crossing
Public finances in ‘relatively vulnerable position’, OBR warns

“Our two countries are among the oldest sovereign nations in Europe, and sovereignty means a lot to both of us, and everything I referred to was about sovereignty, deciding for ourselves, choosing our technologies, our economy, deciding our diplomacy, and deciding the content we want to share and the ideas we want to share, and the controversies we want to share.

“Even though it is not part of the European Union, the United Kingdom cannot stay on the sidelines because defence and security, competitiveness, democracy – the very core of our identity – are connected across Europe as a continent.”

Continue Reading

UK

In pictures: Princess of Wales, Elton John and Mick Jagger at King’s state banquet for Macron

Published

on

By

In pictures: Princess of Wales, Elton John and Mick Jagger at King's state banquet for Macron

The Princess of Wales and celebrities attended the King’s star-studded state banquet on Tuesday, where Emmanuel Macron paid tribute to the late Queen Elizabeth II.

On the first day of Mr Macron’s state visit, King Charles gave a toast in French and said the three-day trip was another chance to “celebrate a deep and enduring friendship”.

“What’s possibly the most remarkable thing is the way in which the speciality of one country is part of the story of the other,” the monarch said.

“For centuries, our citizens have admired one another. We’ve made each other laugh, and we’ve imitated one another.”

The Prince and Princess of Wales at the State Banquet for President of France Emmanuel Macron. Pic: PA
Image:
The Prince and Princess of Wales at the State Banquet. Pic: PA

The banquet hall at Windsor Castle. Pic: PA
Image:
The banquet hall at Windsor Castle. Pic: PA

The King makes a speech at a banquet at Windsor Castle. Pic: PA
Image:
The King makes a speech at a banquet at Windsor Castle. Pic: PA

King Charles looks at Emmanuel Macron at a state banquet at Windsor Castle
Image:
King Charles looks at Emmanuel Macron at a state banquet at Windsor Castle. Pic: PA

After the King’s speech, Mr Macron told him France had a “real affection for your mother” Queen Elizabeth II, adding he believed the feeling was “reciprocal”.

“She was your queen,” he said. “To us, she was the Queen.”

He capped off his speech – which repeated his calls for closer relations that he made earlier in the Palace of Westminster – by saying: “In honour of the United Kingdom, of this entente amico that unites our two fraternal peoples in an unwavering alliance.

“Long live the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland! Long live France!”

Emmanuel Macron gives a speech at a state banquet at Windsor Castle. Pic: PA
Image:
Emmanuel Macron gives a speech at a state banquet at Windsor Castle. Pic: PA

The Princess of Wales also made her first appearance at a state banquet in almost two years, sitting next to the French president.

She last made an appearance at a grand royal dinner in November 2023 in honour of the South Korean president. It comes after she opened up about her “rollercoaster” cancer recovery last week.

Emmanuel Macron and Kate, the Princess of Wales, share a toast. Pic: PA
Image:
Emmanuel Macron and Kate, the Princess of Wales, share a toast. Pic: PA

Also in attendance were Sir Mick Jagger, frontman of The Rolling Stones, who was joined by his fiancee Melanie Hamrick, and Sir Elton John, who was accompanied by his husband David Furnish.

Read more from Sky News:
Gregg Wallace reportedly sacked from MasterChef
Post Office scandal: At least 13 may have taken their own lives, inquiry finds
More than 160 people still missing after Texas floods

Mick Jagger taking his seat at the state banquet at Windsor Castle. Pic: PA
Image:
Mick Jagger taking his seat at the state banquet at Windsor Castle. Pic: PA

Elton John and David Furnish at the state banquet at Windsor Castle. Pic: PA SQUARE
Image:
Elton John and David Furnish at the state banquet at Windsor Castle. Pic: PA

Meanwhile, it was announced that the Bayeux Tapestry, depicting the Norman conquest of England, will return to the UK for the first time in more than 900 years, and will feature in an exhibition from September 2026 to July 2027.

Mr Macron joked ahead of the state banquet that negotiations to bring the 11th-century artwork back to the UK took longer “than all the Brexit tests”. Talks on a loan had started as early as 2018.

Continue Reading

UK

At least 13 people may have taken their own lives linked to Post Office scandal, public inquiry finds

Published

on

By

At least 13 people may have taken their own lives linked to Post Office scandal, public inquiry finds

At least 13 people may have taken their own lives after being accused of wrongdoing based on evidence from the Horizon IT system that the Post Office and developers Fujitsu knew could be false, the public inquiry has found.

A further 59 people told the inquiry they considered ending their lives, 10 of whom tried on at least one occasion, while other postmasters and family members recount suffering from alcoholism and mental health disorders including anorexia and depression, family breakup, divorce, bankruptcy and personal abuse.

Follow latest on public inquiry into Post Office scandal

Writing in the first volume of the Post Office Horizon IT Inquiry report, chairman Sir Wyn Williams concludes that this enormous personal toll came despite senior employees at the Post Office knowing the Horizon IT system could produce accounts “which were illusory rather than real” even before it was rolled out to branches.

Sir Wyn said: “I am satisfied from the evidence that I have heard that a number of senior, and not so senior, employees of the Post Office knew or, at the very least, should have known that Legacy Horizon was capable of error… Yet, for all practical purposes, throughout the lifetime of Legacy Horizon, the Post Office maintained the fiction that its data was always accurate.”

Referring to the updated version of Horizon, known as Horizon Online, which also had “bugs errors and defects” that could create illusory accounts, he said: “I am satisfied that a number of employees of Fujitsu and the Post Office knew that this was so.”

The first volume of the report focuses on what Sir Wyn calls the “disastrous” impact of false accusations made against at least 1,000 postmasters, and the various redress schemes the Post Office and government has established since miscarriages of justice were identified and proven.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

‘It stole a lot from me’

Recommendations regarding the conduct of senior management of the Post Office, Fujitsu and ministers will come in a subsequent report, but Sir Wyn is clear that unjust and flawed prosecutions were knowingly pursued.

“All of these people are properly to be regarded as victims of wholly unacceptable behaviour perpetrated by a number of individuals employed by and/or associated with the Post Office and Fujitsu from time to time and by the Post Office and Fujitsu as institutions,” he says.

What are the inquiry’s recommendations?

Calling for urgent action from government and the Post Office to ensure “full and fair compensation”, he makes 19 recommendations including:

• Government and the Post Office to agree a definition of “full and fair” compensation to be used when agreeing payouts
• Ending “unnecessarily adversarial attitude” to initial offers that have depressed the value of payouts, ⁠and ensuring consistency across all four compensation schemes
• The creation of a standing body to administer financial redress to people wronged by public bodies
• Compensation to be extended to close family members of those affected who have suffered “serious negative consequences”
• The Post Office, Fujitsu and government agreeing a programme for “restorative justice”, a process that brings together those that have suffered harm with those that have caused it

Regarding the human impact of the Post Office’s pursuit of postmasters, including its use of unique powers of prosecution, Sir Wyn writes: “I do not think it is easy to exaggerate the trauma which persons are likely to suffer when they are the subject of criminal investigation, prosecution, conviction and sentence.”

He says that even the process of being interviewed under caution by Post Office investigators “will have been troubling at best and harrowing at worst”.

Read more:
Post Office inquiry lays bare heart-breaking legacy – analysis

‘Hostile and abusive behaviour’

The report finds that those wrongfully convicted were “subject to hostile and abusive behaviour” in their local communities, felt shame and embarrassment, with some feeling forced to move.

Detailing the impact on close family members of those prosecuted, Sir Wyn writes: “Wives, husbands, children and parents endured very significant suffering in the form of distress, worry and disruption to home life, in employment and education.

“In a number of cases, relationships with spouses broke down and ended in divorce or separation.

“In the most egregious cases, family members themselves suffered psychiatric illnesses or psychological problems and very significant financial losses… their suffering has been acute.”

The report includes 17 case studies of those affected by the scandal including some who have never spoken publicly before. They include Millie Castleton, daughter of Lee Castleton, one of the first postmasters prosecuted.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Three things you need to know about Post Office report

She told the inquiry how her family being “branded thieves and liars” affected her mental health, and contributed to a diagnosis of anorexia that forced her to drop out of university.

Her account concludes: “Even now as I go into my career, I still find it so incredibly hard to trust anyone, even subconsciously. I sabotage myself by not asking for help with anything.

“I’m trying hard to break this cycle but I’m 26 and am very conscious that I may never be able to fully commit to natural trust. But my family is still fighting. I’m still fighting, as are many hundreds involved in the Post Office trial.”

Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds said the inquiry’s report “marks an important milestone for sub-postmasters and their families”.

He added that he was “committed to ensuring wronged sub-postmasters are given full, fair, and prompt redress”.

“The recommendations contained in Sir Wyn’s report require careful reflection, including on further action to complete the redress schemes,” Mr Reynolds said.

“Government will promptly respond to the recommendations in full in parliament.”

Continue Reading

Trending