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The Labour Party is on course for a 256-seat majority at the general election while the Tories are heading for their worst-ever defeat, according to a new poll.

In its first MRP model of the 2024 campaign, Ipsos estimated Sir Keir Starmer’s party could win 453 seats and the Conservatives 115.

Election latest: Former Dragons’ Den star endorses Labour

If correct, that would hand Labour a historic majority of 256, the biggest of any post-war government, while plunging the number of Tory MPs to record lows.

It would also mean senior Conservative figures such as Grant Shapps, Penny Mordaunt, Gillian Keegan, Johnny Mercer and Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg losing their seats.

While Labour have consistently enjoyed a 20-point lead in the polls, the Ipsos survey is the highest projection yet of what their majority could look like.

The poll also predicts the Lib Dems could win 38 seats, the Scottish National Party 15, three for the Green Party and three for Reform UK.

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According to the projection, Nigel Farage is on track to overturn a huge Tory majority to win in Clacton while former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, standing as an independent, is predicted to lose to his old party in Islington North.

Sir Keir Starmer
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Sir Keir Starmer

The poll is likely to cement fears within the Conservative party of an extinction-level event.

Despite promises of further tax cuts in his manifesto, Rishi Sunak has failed to shift the dial in a campaign marred by political gaffes – notably his early exit from a D-day event.

Repeated forecasts of a Labour landslide have prompted gloom from some Tories, with the prime minister forced to insist on Monday that his party could still win the election after Mr Shapps, the Defence Secretary, conceded that defeat was likely.

In recent days, senior figures have taken to warning voters about the risk of a Labour “supermajority” in a bid to convince undecided voters to stick with them.

More than 100 seats on a knife edge

The Ipsos projection predicts a huge majority for Labour even when factoring in more than 100 seats which are “too close to call”.

The model finds 117 seats are on a knife edge as they have a winning margin of less than five percentage points.

This underlines the extent to which the number of undecided voters could change the outcome for the Tories.

Kelly Beaver, chief executive of Ipsos UK and Ireland said: “Labour is increasing its 2019 vote share across the country, especially in Scotland and the North East, while the Conservatives are losing votes in all regions – especially in the East and South of England, and across the Midlands.

“What is perhaps most concerning for them are signs in the data that they are particularly losing vote share in the areas where they were strongest in 2019.”

The poll used the multilevel with poststratification (MRP) technique to model individual constituency results based on a survey of 19,689 British adults and took place between 7-12 June.

It is the second poll released this week to use the technique, following a Survation poll on Monday that estimated a similarly massive Labour majority.

The Ipsos poll is the first MRP survey to be conducted entirely after Mr Farage announced he would be taking over as leader of Reform UK and making his eighth attempt to become an MP, this time in Clacton, Essex.

Sky’s Sam Coates asks Nigel Farage whether he will ‘categorically rule out’ joining the Conservative Party in the future.
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Nigel Farage

Political scene ‘heading for significant shift’

The poll suggests Mr Farage is on course to win that seat, with his Reform UK party also picking up Lee Anderson’s Ashfield constituency and possibly one other seat with 12% of the national vote.

That puts the party level in terms of seats with the Greens, who Ipsos suggests could win in Bristol Central, North Herefordshire and Waveney Valley while losing their current seat in Brighton Pavilion to Labour.

The poll also sees the Liberal Democrats making gains in the South East and South West, increasing its number of seats to 38 and regaining its position as the third party in the Commons.

Meanwhile, Ipsos said the fate of the SNP was “still very much up in the air”, with the party running a close second to Labour in Scotland and expected to win around 15 seats, a significant reduction from the 48 seats it won in 2019.

Ms Beaver said the poll was “just a snapshot of people’s current voting intentions” and there was “still time for things to change”.

She added: “But this data, in line with most of the evidence that we have seen both in the run-up to this election and since the campaign started, in terms of the mood of the nation and real election results in local elections and by-elections, suggests that the British political scene could be heading for yet another significant shift.”

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Rachel Reeves says budget ‘non-negotiable’ on China trip – as former PM says she’s been ‘rumbled’ by market turmoil

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Rachel Reeves says budget 'non-negotiable' on China trip - as former PM says she's been 'rumbled' by market turmoil

The chancellor has said the budget is “non-negotiable” on a visit to China in the face of volatile markets back in the UK.

Rachel Reeves flew out on Friday after ignoring calls from opposition parties to cancel the long-planned trip because of economic turmoil at home.

The past week has seen a drop in the pound and an increase in government borrowing costs, which has fuelled speculation of more spending cuts or tax rises.

The Tories have accused the chancellor of having “fled to China” rather than explain how she will fix the UK’s flatlining economy, while the Liberal Democrats say she should stay in Britain and announce a “plan B” to address market volatility.

Former prime minister Boris Johnson said Ms Reeves had “been rumbled” and said she should “make her way to HR and collect her P45 – or stay in China”.

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Chancellor’s ‘pragmatic’ approach to China

Britain's Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves, right, visits a Brompton flagship store in Beijing, Saturday, Jan. 11, 2025. (Jade Gao/Pool Photo via AP)
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The chancellor visits a Brompton bike shop in Beijing. Pic: AP

However, during a visit to Beijing’s flagship store of UK bike maker Brompton, Ms Reeves said she would not alter her economic plans, with the October budget designed to return the UK to economic stability.

“Growth is the number one mission of this government,” she said.

“The fiscal rules laid out in the budget are non-negotiable. Economic stability is the bedrock for economic growth and prosperity.”

The treasury added that making Britain better off will be at the “forefront of the chancellor’s mind” during her visit.

She said that “action” will be taken to meet the fiscal rules. That action is reported to include deeper spending cuts than the 5% efficiency savings already expected to be announced later this year, while cuts to the welfare bill are also said to be under consideration.

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The chancellor is being accompanied by Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey and other senior executives.

UK and China selling new economic relationship as a win-win – but it’s complicated

Nicole Johnston

Asia correspondent

@nicole_reporter

The UK has laid out a new economic relationship with China, and to use one of China’s favourite phrases, both countries are selling it as a “win-win” situation.

It’s a significant development in restoring ties between the countries. The relationship has been beset by years of tension and suspicion. Both sides want to get it back on track.

China delivered a warm welcome for the chancellor.

Rachel Reeves was shuttled from a Beijing Brompton bike shop, to the Great Hall of the People and on to a state guest house.

China’s vice premier He Lifeng said: “The outcomes we have agreed today represent pragmatic co-operation in action.”

Pragmatic. There is that word again. Chancellor Reeves uttered it four times in her closing statement.

Despite the bonhomie, China is still likely to view these British overtures with caution.

Read more here

She met her counterpart, Vice Premier He Lifeng, in Beijing on Saturday to discuss financial services, trade and investment, before heading to Shanghai for talks with representatives across British and Chinese businesses.

She will also “raise difficult issues”, including Chinese firms supporting Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and concerns over constraints on rights and freedoms in Hong Kong, the Treasury said.

But it did not mention whether Ms Reeves would raise the treatment of the Uyghur community, which Downing Street said Foreign Secretary David Lammy would do during his visit last year.

Britain's Foreign Secretary David Lammy and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi shake hands before their meeting at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse in Beijing. Pic: AP
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Britain’s Foreign Secretary David Lammy and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Beijing. Pic: AP

On Friday, Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy defended the trip, telling Sky News that the climbing cost of government borrowing was a “global trend” that had affected many countries, “most notably the United States”.

“We are still on track to be the fastest growing economy, according to the OECD [Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development] in Europe,” she told Anna Jones on Sky News Breakfast.

“China is the second-largest economy, and what China does has the biggest impact on people from Stockton to Sunderland, right across the UK, and it’s absolutely essential that we have a relationship with them.”

Ed Conway analysis: The chancellor’s gamble with China

Grim economic news raises stakes for embattled chancellor’s controversial China trip


Amanda Akass is a politics and business correspondent

Amanda Akass

Political correspondent

@amandaakass

Rachel Reeves’s trip to China – the first by a British chancellor since 2019 – was always going to be controversial.

In recent years Conservative governments have been keeping Beijing at arm’s length – amid concern about espionage, the situation in Hong Kong, and the treatment of the Uyghurs.

David Cameron’s so-called “Golden Era” of engagement in the pursuit of economic investment, notoriously capped by a visit to an Oxfordshire pub for a pint with President Xi Jinping – has been widely written off as a naive mistake.

There are many – not least the incoming US President Donald Trump – who believe we should maintain our distance.

But in another era of economic turmoil, the pursuit of growth is the government’s number one priority.

This week’s difficult market news – with the cost of government borrowing surging, and the value of the pound falling – has thoroughly raised the stakes.

Read more here

It is the first UK-China Economic and Financial Dialogue (EFD) since 2019, building on the Labour government’s plan for a “pragmatic” policy with the world’s second-largest economy.

Sir Keir Starmer was the first British prime minister to meet with China’s President Xi Jinping in six years at the G20 summit in Brazil last autumn.

Relations between the UK and China have become strained over the last decade as the Conservative government spoke out against human rights abuses and concerns grew over national security risks.

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How much do we trade with China?

Navigating this has proved tricky given China is the UK’s fourth largest single trading partner, with a trade relationship worth almost £113bn and exports to China supporting over 455,000 jobs in the UK in 2020, according to the government.

During the Tories’ 14 years in office, the approach varied dramatically from the “golden era” under David Cameron to hawkish aggression under Liz Truss, while Rishi Sunak vowed to be “robust” but resisted pressure from his own party to brand China a threat.

The Treasury said a stable relationship with China would support economic growth and that “making working people across Britain secure and better off is at the forefront of the chancellor’s mind”.

Ahead of her visit, Ms Reeves said: “By finding common ground on trade and investment, while being candid about our differences and upholding national security as the first duty of this government, we can build a long-term economic relationship with China that works in the national interest.”

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Grim economic news raises stakes for embattled chancellor Rachel Reeves’s controversial China trip

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Grim economic news raises stakes for embattled chancellor Rachel Reeves's controversial China trip

Rachel Reeves’s trip to China – the first by a British chancellor since 2019 – was always going to be controversial.

In recent years Conservative governments have been keeping Beijing at arm’s length – amid concern about espionage, the situation in Hong Kong, and the treatment of the Uyghurs.

David Cameron‘s so-called “Golden Era” of engagement in the pursuit of economic investment, notoriously capped by a visit to an Oxfordshire pub for a pint with President Xi Jinping – has been widely written off as a naive mistake.

There are many – not least the incoming US President Donald Trump – who believe we should maintain our distance.

But in another era of economic turmoil, the pursuit of growth is the government’s number one priority.

Britain's Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves, right, visits a Brompton flagship store in Beijing, Saturday, Jan. 11, 2025. (Jade Gao/Pool Photo via AP)
Image:
Rachel Reeves visits a Beijing bike shop. Pic: AP

This week’s difficult market news – with the cost of government borrowing surging, and the value of the pound falling – has thoroughly raised the stakes.

Both the Tories and the Lib Dems argued the visit should be cancelled.

More on China

Prominent China hawk and former Conservative leader Iain Duncan Smith MP summed up both arguments against it.

“The trip is pointless,” he wrote on X. “As the disastrous ‘Golden Era’ showed, the murderous, brutal, law-breaking, communist regime in China will not deliver the growth the Labour government craves.

“Instead, she should stay home and try to sort out the awful mess her budget has created.”

President Xi Jinping and David Cameron at the Plough pub
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President Xi Jinping and David Cameron in 2015. Pic: PA

Yet cancelling the trip would have been a diplomatic disaster and far from adding to economic stability would surely have spread a sense of crisis (with inevitable comparisons to Denis Healey’s abandoned visit to Hong Kong in 1976, months before he was forced to apply from an emergency loan from the IMF to save the pound from collapse).

Instead, the government argues the current market situation is a result of “global trends”, and Reeves insists she will be sticking to the decisions taken in the budget.

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“Growth is the number one mission of this government. The fiscal rules laid out in the budget are non-negotiable. Economic stability is the bedrock for economic growth and prosperity.”

Improving the UK/China relationship should “boost our economic growth for the benefit of working people in both of our countries” she said during her meeting with vice premier He Lifeng.

In a speech to media afterwards, Reeves was delighted to announce a big, concrete number to justify the value of the trip, claiming the agreements reached would be worth £600m to the UK economy over five years.

Pragmatism is the new order of the day. Labour argues re-establishing “pragmatic engagement” with China is in the national interest, and it’s a word Reeves used four times in five minutes during her speech.

Ed Conway analysis: The chancellor’s gamble with China

The government insists this new closer relationship will make it easier for them to raise tricky issues and we did hear the chancellor flagging concerns about Hong Kong and the role of China in connection with Russia’s war in Ukraine – though not the Uyghurs, or the imprisoned British citizen and pro-democracy activist Jimmy Lai.

The challenge going forward will be to show that cosying up to China is worth it.

There’s a lot riding on it for the chancellor – with questions being openly asked about her economic strategy given the growing likelihood that to meet her fiscal rules on balancing tax and spending she will be forced to make deep cuts to government departments this spring.

We are promised a big speech from the chancellor on the government’s plans for growth in the coming weeks.

In many ways, the trip to China may have been a welcome break from the difficult decisions which await her return.

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Former Manchester United defender David May shares dementia fears

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Former Manchester United defender David May shares dementia fears

Former Manchester United footballer David May has shared his fears about developing dementia – and the impact that would have on his family.

It comes after the ex-footballer revealed David Windass, the former Hull City, Bradford City and Middlesbrough striker, has been diagnosed with stage two dementia.

During the early stages of dementia, people show a very mild cognitive decline, including occasional memory loss and struggles finding words, according to Dementia UK.

May shared 55-year-old Windass’s diagnosis – with his permission – during a BBC Breakfast interview.

“I actually said, ‘Would you mind if I mentioned it?’ And he went, ‘No. 100% – you mention it. Get it out there’. Not to put Deano under the spotlight, but the issue,” he told Sky News’ sports correspondent Rob Harris.

“I’d hate my children to go through that, knowing their dad doesn’t know them, doesn’t recognise them, can’t speak to them. It’s tragic.”

May, a defender with United’s 1999 treble-winning team, also revealed he is worried about his long-term health.

“Ask me would I do it again? Football? 100% – because I love football. It’s my life,” the 54-year-old said.

“Would I have done as many headers through training, and continuously heading in training? Maybe not.

“But I have just got to wait and see. It’s a waiting game. Are you going to be the one that’s going to miss it?

“One in three-and-a-half people will get dementia who have become professional footballers.”

Pic: firo Sportphoto/ J'rgen Fromme/picture-alliance/dpa/AP Images
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May (top centre) won the treble with Manchester United in 1998/99. Pic: firo Sportphoto/ J’rgen Fromme/picture-alliance/dpa/AP Images

Asked if he thought heading would eventually be banned, he said: “No, I don’t think you need to eradicate heading. It’s part of the game, and you don’t want to take that out of the game.

“It has been an incredible, and still is a wonderful, wonderful game.

“But maybe the amount of headers you do in training can change.

“I know that before, probably 15, 20 times, you’d head a ball in training. And then on a Friday you’d go through it to get your timings right, maybe another five or six before the game starts, and then all the heading in games.

“It’s a lot. It’s a hell of a lot of headers in a footballer’s career.”

May has joined campaigners pushing for more help for footballers affected by neurodegenerative diseases.

The diagnosis at such a young age for Windass has brought home the reality that this remains a major problem in football.

“It’s not going to go away. Day in, day out, players are heading the balls in games, and you know, are they aware of it? Probably not,” said May.

“We need to keep fighting for the right answers and the right funds.”

David May speaking to Sky News' Rob Harris
Image:
David May speaking to Sky News’ sports correspondent Rob Harris

Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham and the Mayor of the Liverpool City Region Steve Rotheram have given their backing to the cause.

The Football Families for Justice (FFJ) campaign has the support of former England captain David Beckham, and is now seeking to secure an amendment to the Football Governance Bill which would give the independent regulator the power to make it a statutory duty on the football authorities to develop a comprehensive dementia strategy, including a care fund agreed with affected players and their families.

“When you think of how much money comes into the Premier League now, it’s billions,” said May.

“It’s a pittance what they could donate to these lads who drastically need help and care.”

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Man crushed to death crossing Channel in small boat

In addition to funding research, the Football Association is also working to remove deliberate headings from youth football up to under-11s by 2026. It has also introduced rules on high-force headers in training at all levels of adult football to reduce the risks to individuals.

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