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The future of new oil and gas projects in the UK has been thrown into doubt following a landmark decision by the Supreme Court.

The court concluded the environmental impact of emissions from burning fossil fuels must be considered in planning applications for new extraction projects – not just the impacts of the emissions produced in extracting the oil.

The case hinged around an oil drilling project at Horse Hill in Surrey, granted planning permission by Surrey County Council in 2019.

Local campaigner Sarah Finch argued the environmental impact of the project should have taken into account not just the carbon emissions created in extracting the oil, but the environmental impact when they are burned.

She challenged an earlier Court of Appeal ruling dismissing her case, having also lost a legal battle in the High Court.

But the Supreme Court justices ruled on Thursday three to two in favour of allowing her appeal, and quashed the decision to grant planning permission for the site.

Sarah Finch outside court
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Environmental campaigner Sarah Finch brought about the appeal

Speaking after the ruling, former Surrey resident, Ms Finch said she was “absolutely over the moon” adding that it was a “welcome step towards a safer, fairer future”.

In his judgement, Lord Leggatt concluded: “In my view, there was no basis on which the council could reasonably decide that it was not necessary to assess the combustion emissions.”

He went on: “Given the agreed fact that all the oil produced would be refined, I see no reason why environmental impacts resulting from the process of refining oil should not in principle fall within the scope of the EIA for the extracting of oil.”

The court did not conclude that fossil fuel emissions were unlawful, only that they must be considered in an environmental impact assessment – a tool used in the planning process to assess the effects of a project on the environment.

Campaigners celebrating the landmark win
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Campaigners celebrate the landmark win outside court

Campaigners celebrate the ruling

In relation to the Horse Hill project Justice Leggatt said: “It is not disputed that these emissions, which can easily be quantified, will have a significant impact on climate. The only issue is whether the combustion emissions are effects of the project at all. It seems plain to me that they are.”

Given the burden of scientific evidence of the negative environmental impact of carbon emissions, the ruling that the downstream impacts of burning extracted oil and gas must be considered by anyone applying to extract them is significant.

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The decision, from the UK’s highest court, could have immediate implications for other fossil fuel extraction projects facing legal challenge by environmental campaigners.

West Cumbria Mining (WCM), the company behind a coal mine in Whitehaven approved by the government in 2022, clearly felt this could be a possibility as their lawyers intervened in this latest case.

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WCM did not respond to a request for comment on why it did so, but, if the campaigners’ appeal against the Surrey oil site wins next month, it could mean “that you have to completely reassess whether that coal mine in Cumbria can happen at all”, according to barrister Sam Fowles.

“It is extremely difficult to overstate the significance of this case,” Mr Fowles, who specialises in planning and environment law at Cornerstone Barristers, said.

It has the potential to trigger the “beginning of the end of… new fossil fuel extraction in the UK going forward”, he added.

The ruling could also have a bearing on offshore oil and gas projects such as the giant Rosebank oil and gas field in the North Sea.

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While planning rules offshore are different, EIAs are also required.

Charles McAllister, director of industry group UK Onshore Oil and Gas, called it “incontrovertible” that the UK needs some oil and gas beyond 2050, “even with huge growth in renewables”.

“It’s a case of where we got it from, not if we need or not,” he said.

Developers, or future governments, could argue that the economic or energy security benefits of extracting fossil fuels could outweigh the environmental impacts of burning them.

However, the ruling opens a new avenue for climate campaigners to challenge future oil, gas or coal projects in the UK.

The government is due to make a decision imminently on Rosebank.

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UK economy grows by 0.1% between July and September – slower than expected

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UK economy grows by 0.1% between July and September - slower than expected

The UK economy grew by 0.1% between July and September, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

However, despite the small positive GDP growth recorded in the third quarter, the economy shrank by 0.1% in September, dragging down overall growth for the quarter.

The growth was also slower than what had been expected by experts and a drop from the 0.5% growth between April and June, the ONS said.

Economists polled by Reuters and the Bank of England had forecast an expansion of 0.2%, slowing from the rapid growth seen over the first half of 2024 when the economy was rebounding from last year’s shallow recession.

And the metric that Labour has said it is most focused on – the GDP per capita, or the economic output divided by the number of people in the country – also fell by 0.1%.

Reacting to the figures, Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves said: “Improving economic growth is at the heart of everything I am seeking to achieve, which is why I am not satisfied with these numbers,” she said in response to the figures.

“At my budget, I took the difficult choices to fix the foundations and stabilise our public finances.

“Now we are going to deliver growth through investment and reform to create more jobs and more money in people’s pockets, get the NHS back on its feet, rebuild Britain and secure our borders in a decade of national renewal,” Ms Reeves added.

The sluggish services sector – which makes up the bulk of the British economy – was a particular drag on growth over the past three months. It expanded by 0.1%, cancelling out the 0.8% growth in the construction sector

The UK’s GDP for the the most recent quarter is lower than the 0.7% growth in the US and 0.4% in the Eurozone.

The figures have pushed the UK towards the bottom of the G7 growth table for the third quarter of the year.

It was expected to meet the same 0.2% growth figures reported in Germany and Japan – but fell below that after a slow September.

The pound remained stable following the news, hovering around $1.267. The FTSE 100, meanwhile, opened the day down by 0.4%.

The Bank of England last week predicted that Ms Reeves’s first budget as chancellor will increase inflation by up to half a percentage point over the next two years, contributing to a slower decline in interest rates than previously thought.

Announcing a widely anticipated 0.25 percentage point cut in the base rate to 4.75%, the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) forecast that inflation will return “sustainably” to its target of 2% in the first half of 2027, a year later than at its last meeting.

The Bank’s quarterly report found Ms Reeves’s £70bn package of tax and borrowing measures will place upward pressure on prices, as well as delivering a three-quarter point increase to GDP next year.

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Chancellor’s Mansion House speech vows to rip up red tape – saying post-financial crash rules went ‘too far’

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Chancellor's Mansion House speech vows to rip up red tape - saying post-financial crash rules went 'too far'

Chancellor Rachel Reeves has criticised post-financial crash regulation, saying it has “gone too far” – setting a course for cutting red tape in her first speech to Britain’s most important gathering of financiers and business leaders.

Increased rules on lenders that followed the 2008 crisis have had “unintended consequences”, Ms Reeves will say in her Mansion House address to industry and the City of London’s lord mayor.

“The UK has been regulating for risk, but not regulating for growth,” she will say.

It cannot be taken for granted that the UK will remain a global financial centre, she is expected to add.

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It’s anticipated Ms Reeves will on Thursday announce “growth-focused remits” for financial regulators and next year publish the first strategy for financial services growth and competitiveness.

Rachel Reeves
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Rachel Reeves


Bank governor to point out ‘consequences’ of Brexit

Also at the Mansion House dinner the governor of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey will say the UK economy is bigger than we think because we’re not measuring it properly.

A new measure to be used by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) – which will include the value of data – will probably be “worth a per cent or two on GDP”. GDP is a key way of tracking economic growth and counts the value of everything produced.

Brexit has reduced the level of goods coming into the UK, Mr Bailey will also say, and the government must be alert to and welcome opportunities to rebuild relations.

Mr Bailey will caveat he takes no position on “Brexit per se” but does have to point out its consequences.

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Bailey: Inflation expected to rise

In what appears to be a reference to the debate around UK immigration policy, Mr Bailey will also say the UK’s ageing population means there are fewer workers, which should be included in the discussion.

The greying labour force “makes the productivity and investment issue all the more important”.

“I will also say this: when we think about broad policy on labour supply, the economic arguments must feature in the debate,” he’s due to add.

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The exact numbers of people at work are unknown in part due to fewer people answering the phone when the ONS call.

Mr Bailey described this as “a substantial problem”.

He will say: “I do struggle to explain when my fellow [central bank] governors ask me why the British are particularly bad at this. The Bank, alongside other users, including the Treasury, continue to engage with the ONS on efforts to tackle these problems and improve the quality of UK labour market data.”

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Reeves has welcome support from Bank’s governor as she goes for growth and seeks to woo City

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Reeves has welcome support from Bank's governor as she goes for growth and seeks to woo City

When Gordon Brown delivered his first Mansion House speech as chancellor he caused a stir by doing so in a lounge suit, rather than the white tie and tails demanded by convention.

Some 27 years later Rachel Reeves is the first chancellor who would have not drawn a second glance had they addressed the City establishment in a dress.

As the first woman in the 800-year history of her office, Ms Reeves’s tenure will be littered with reminders of her significance, but few will be as symbolic as a dinner that is a fixture of the financial calendar.

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Her host at Mansion House, asset manager Alastair King, is the 694th man out of 696 Lord Mayors of London. The other guest speaker, Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey, leads an institution that is yet to be entrusted to a woman.

Ms Reeves’s speech indicates she wants to lean away from convention in policy as well as in person.

By committing to tilting financial regulation in favour of growth rather than risk aversion, she is going against the grain of the post-financial crash environment.

“This sector is the crown jewel in our economy,” she will tell her audience – many of whom will have been central players in the 2007-08 collapse.

Sending a message that they will be less tightly bound in future is not natural territory for a Labour chancellor.

Her motivation may be more practical than political. A tax-and-spend budget that hit business harder than forewarned has put her economic program on notice and she badly needs the growth elements to deliver.

Britain's Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves poses with the red budget box outside her office on Downing Street in London, Britain October 30, 2024. REUTERS/Maja Smiejkowska
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Rachel Reeves on budget day. Pic: PA

Her plans to consolidate local authority pension schemes so they might match the investing power of their Canadian and Australian counterparts is part of the same theme.

Infrastructure investment is central to Reeves’s plan and these steps, universally welcomed, could unlock the private sector funding required to make it happen.

Bank governor frank on Brexit and growth

If the jury is out in a business financial community absorbing £25bn in tax rises, she has welcome support from Mr Bailey.

He is expected to deliver some home truths about the economic inheritance in plainer language than central bankers sometimes manage.

Britain’s growth potential, he says, “is not a good story”. He describes the labour market as “running against us” in the face of an ageing population.

With investment levels “particularly weak by G7 standards”, he will thank the chancellor for the pension reforms intended to unlock capital investment.

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Governor warns inflation expected to rise

He is frank about Brexit too, more so than the chancellor has dared.

While studiously offering no view on the central issue, Mr Bailey says leaving the EU had slowed the UK’s potential for growth, and that the government should “welcome opportunities to rebuild relations”.

There is a more coded warning too about the risks of protectionism, which is perhaps more likely with Donald Trump in the White House.

“Amid threats to economic security, let’s please remember the importance of openness,” the Bank governor will say.

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All that is welcome for Ms Reeves.

Already a groundbreaking chancellor, she is aiming for a political and economic legacy that extends beyond her gender and the dress code.

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