General election 2024: A truer picture for housebuilding stats that will surprise you
We need to talk about the main parties’ plans for housebuilding, but before we get to that there’s something important we need to discuss. Everything you thought you knew about the housebuilding numbers in this country is wrong. Quite dramatically wrong. And that has a bearing on, well, rather a lot when it comes to this topic.
I realise this is probably the last thing you need to process, with only a few weeks left until the election and rather a lot going on besides, but bear with me, because this is rather important.
Let’s start with the conventional picture most of us have in our heads about housebuilding in this country (actually in this case we’re talking about England, since most of the main statistics – and political housebuilding pledges – focus on England). It comes courtesy of a dataset published each quarter by the Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities.
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This dataset shows us the number of homes built in England – either housing starts (when work begins on a home) or completions (when the work is done).
Now, it’s not as if the government has someone with a clipboard going round the country noting how many buildings are being built; instead, the department uses data on building warranties (you generally get a 10 year warranty with a new home). This might all seem like too much information but, well, bear with me.
These numbers tell quite a simple story. Back in the 1960s and 70s, England was building lots and lots of homes – an annual average between 1969 and 1979 of around 260,000 – and, in some years, more than 300,000.
But then, in the following years, the numbers dropped – and fast. They have never come anywhere close to those 1960s highs. In the past decade, between 2013 and 2023, the average number of homes being built was only 150,000 – way lower than the comparable period in the early 1970s.
Now, when you hear political parties talk about wanting to build 300,000 homes you probably wonder to yourself (I often have) about how on earth they could hit those numbers. But that’s what brings us to the main point here.
When you read in this or that party manifesto about a housebuilding target of 300,000 in England, the parties aren’t talking about the numbers you’re probably thinking about – those ones which show housebuilding at only 150,000 in the past decade. They’re talking about another set of numbers entirely.
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Because it turns out there’s an entirely separate dataset (from the same government department) which attempts to measure housebuilding slightly differently. This one counts the entire housing stock across the country – and when you know how many homes there are you can measure the change from one year to the next.
And that matters for two important reasons. First, because back in the 1960s and ’70s we weren’t just building lots of new homes, we were also knocking down lots of old homes. There were enormous programmes of slum demolitions.
If you really wanted to compare our housing availability today with back then, you really ought to adjust for that. Yet those conventional housebuilding figures do not.
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The second reason the other dataset matters is that it turns out those insurance figures the government has typically used to measure homebuilding no longer cover most of the housing market. There’s a massive gap.
All of which is to say, looking at the other dataset, and how the total number of homes changes from year to year (net addition, as it’s technically called) gives a far better picture of what’s really going on in the housing market.
And what is really going on is rather different to that conventional picture. In fact, the number of homes being built in recent years isn’t markedly lower than the comparable period in the 1970s. It’s higher!
This truer picture shows an average of 207,000 homes being added to England’s housing supply in the past decade, compared with an average of 198,000 between 1970 and 1980. It shows that actually we are building more new homes these days than we have done for some time.
You may or may not find this mind-blowing (I did when it was first explained to me by housing economist Neal Hudson but then perhaps that’s just me) but it’s certainly important. And these numbers are certainly more representative of what’s actually going on than the ones usually trotted out by journalists.
The other upshot of all of this is that those housebuilding figures each of the parties have in their manifestos look somewhat more doable than they did when looking through the other, flawed dataset. All of a sudden the gap between current housebuilding and, say, Labour’s 300,000 home target is not 140,000 but 65,000.
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Even so, it’s an open question about whether those targets are achievable. Labour have provided little extra money for housebuilding, instead committing to planning reform, which may well help, but might not narrow the gap as quickly as they hope.
Indeed, the only main nationwide party to have committed to a specific increase in council housebuilding, with specific sums, is the Liberal Democrats, who promised to spend £6.2bn on 150,000 social homes.
One thing that certainly seems to be the case is that with house prices high and immigration also at record levels, the UK will need considerably more homes in the coming years, notwithstanding the fact that the underlying picture is slightly less dire than the conventional statistics suggest.
Virginia Giuffre, who accused Prince Andrew of sexual assault, has died aged 41.
In a statement to Sky’s US partner network NBC News on Friday, her family said she took her own life in the Perth suburb of Neergabby, Australia, where she had been living for several years.
“It is with utterly broken hearts that we announce that Virginia passed away last night at her farm in Western Australia,” her family said.
“She lost her life to suicide, after being a lifelong victim of sexual abuse and sex trafficking.
“Virginia was a fierce warrior in the fight against sexual abuse and sex trafficking. She was the light that lifted so many survivors.
“In the end, the toll of abuse is so heavy that it became unbearable for Virginia to handle its weight.”
Pic: AP
Police said emergency services received reports of an unresponsive woman at a property in Neergabby on Friday night.
“Police and St John Western Australia attended and provided emergency first aid. Sadly, the 41-year-old woman was declared deceased at the scene,” a police spokeswoman said.
“The death is being investigated by Major Crime detectives; early indication is the death is not suspicious.”
Sexual assault claims
Prince Andrew has denied all claims of wrongdoing. File pic: Reuters
Ms Giuffre sued the Duke of York for sexual abuse in August 2021, saying Andrew had sex with her when she was 17 and had been trafficked by his friend, the billionaire paedophile Jeffrey Epstein.
The duke has repeatedly denied the claims, and he has not been charged with any criminal offences.
In March 2022, it was announced Ms Giuffre and Andrew had reached an out-of-court settlement – believed to include a “substantial donation to Ms Giuffre’s charity in support of victims’ rights”.
‘An incredible champion’
Sigrid McCawley, Ms Giuffre’s attorney, said in a statement that she “was much more than a client to me; she was a dear friend and an incredible champion for other victims”.
“Her courage pushed me to fight harder, and her strength was awe-inspiring,” she said. “The world has lost an amazing human being today.”
“Rest in peace, my sweet angel,” she added.
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Dini von Mueffling, Ms Giuffre’s representative, also said that “Virginia was one of the most extraordinary human beings I have ever had the honour to know”.
“Deeply loving, wise, and funny, she was a beacon to other survivors and victims,” she added. “She adored her children and many animals.
“She was always more concerned with me than with herself. I will miss her beyond words.
“It was the privilege of a lifetime to represent her.”
Ms Giuffre said at the end of March she had four days to live after a car accident, posting on social media that “I’ve gone into kidney renal failure”. She was discharged from hospital eight days later.
Raised mainly in Florida, she said she was abused by a family friend early in life, which led to her living on the streets at times as a teenager.
She said that in 2000, she met Ghislaine Maxwell, a British socialite who was convicted in 2021 on federal sex trafficking and conspiracy charges and was sentenced to 20 years in prison.
Ghislaine Maxwell and Jeffrey Epstein. Pic: US Department of Justice
Ms Giuffre said Maxwell then introduced her to Epstein and hired her as his masseuse, and said she was sex trafficked and sexually abused by him and associates around the world.
‘A survivor’
After meeting her husband in 2002, while taking massage training in Thailand at what she said was Epstein’s behest, she moved to Australia and had a family.
She founded the sex trafficking victims’ advocacy charity SOAR in 2015, and is quoted on its website as saying: “I do this for victims everywhere.
“I am no longer the young and vulnerable girl who could be bullied. I am now a survivor, and nobody can ever take that away from me.”
:: Anyone feeling emotionally distressed or suicidal can call Samaritans for help on 116 123 or email jo@samaritans.org in the UK. In the US, call the Samaritans branch in your area or 1 (800) 273-TALK.
The Pope’s funeral will take place today at St Peter’s Basilica at the Vatican.
A pope’s funeral traditionally brings world leaders together, and some have already revealed they are attending.
Watch full coverage of the Pope’s funeral live on Sky News from 8am
Here’s a look at the list.
The Prince of Wales will attend the funeral of Pope Francis on behalf of the King, Kensington Palace has said.
The King was in Rome with Queen Camilla earlier this month, and met the pontiff at the Vatican.
Pope Francis meets King Charles and Queen Camilla during a private audience at the Vatican on 9 April. Pic: Vatican Media/Reuters
The trip came just a week-and-a-half after Buckingham Palace confirmed the King had been taken to hospital following side effects related to his ongoing cancer treatment.
Number 10 has confirmed the prime minister received an invite and will attend the ceremony.
Speaking on Tuesday, Sir Keir said there had been “an outpouring of grief and love” for the Pope.
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Sky News inside Vatican
He added: “I think it reflects the high esteem in which he was held, not just by millions and millions of Catholics, but by many others, across the world, myself included.”
Donald Trump and Pope Francis meet at the Vatican in 2017. Pic: Reuters
The US president was one of the first to confirm he would be flying to Rome, adding he would be joined by first lady Melania Trump.
Writing on his social media platform Truth Social on Monday, he said: “Melania and I will be going to the funeral of Pope Francis, in Rome. We look forward to being there!”
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The Pope had been critical of Mr Trump at times during his tenure.
In January, he said it would be a “disgrace” if the president went ahead with his crackdown on immigration, telling an Italian television station: “It would make the migrants, who have nothing, pay the unpaid bill.
“It doesn’t work. You don’t resolve problems this way.”
Zelenskyy shakes hands with the pontiff in May 2023. Pic: Vatican News/AP
The Ukrainian president, who met the Pope three times, is expected to attend, according to officials in Ukraine.
In his tribute, Mr Zelenskyy said his country was grieving the Pope and recalled how he often prayed for peace in Ukraine.
Pope Francis shakes hands with Emmanuel Macron in December 2024. Pic: Reuters
The French president told local reporters he would be going to the funeral.
In his tribute on Monday, Mr Macron said of the Pope: “In this time of war and brutality, he had a sense for the other, for the most fragile.”
Pope Francis and Javier Milei at the G7 summit in Italy last June. Pic: Reuters
The president of Pope Francis’s native Argentina will attend, despite having launched insults at Francis in recent years.
Before taking office in December 2023, the far-right politician called him “an imbecile, the representative of evil on Earth”.
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Mr Milei alluded to their “differences” in his tribute to the late Pope, writing: “It is with profound sorrow that I learned this sad morning that Pope Francis, Jorge Bergoglio, passed away today and is now resting in peace.
“Despite differences that seem minor today, having been able to know him in his goodness and wisdom was a true honour for me.”
Lula da Silva and the Pope at the G7 summit last year. Pic: Vatican Media/Reuters
The Brazilian president and first lady Janja Lula da Silva will be at the funeral, the country’s government announced.
Brazil has also declared a seven-day mourning period for the Pope.
“Humanity is today losing a voice of respect and welcome for others,” the president said in his tribute.
“Pope Francis lived and propagated in his daily life the love, tolerance and solidarity that are the basis of Christian
teachings.”
Pope Francis meets Ursula von der Leyen at the Vatican in 2022. Pic: Vatican Media/Reuters
The EU Commission President confirmed she would be attending after calling Francis a worldwide inspiration.
“He inspired millions, far beyond the Catholic Church, with his humility and love so pure for the less fortunate,” she said in her tribute.
Council President Antonio Costa, Parliament President Roberta Metsola are also expected to attend.
Here are some of the other notable attendees:
• Ireland’s taoiseach Micheal Martin
• Spain’s King Felipe and Queen Letizia
• Albanian president Bajram Begaj
• Angola’s president Joao Lourenco
• Austrian president Alexander Van der Bellen
• Bangladesh’s chief adviser and interim leader Muhammad Yunus
• Belgium’s King Philippe and Queen Mathilde, along with prime minister Bart De Wever
• Canada’s governor general Mary Simon
• Cape Verde president Jose Maria Neves
• Croatia’s president Zoran Milanovic
• Cyprian president Nikos Christodoulides
• Czech Republic’s prime minister Petr Fiala
• Democratic Republic of Congo president Felix Tshisekedi
• Dominican Republic’s president Luis Abinader
• East Timor’s president Jose Ramos-Horta
• Ecuador’s president Daniel Noboa
• Estonia’s president Alar Karis
• Finland’s president Alexander Stubb
• Gabon’s president Brice Oligui Nguema
• German president Frank-Walter Steinmeier and outgoing chancellor Olaf Scholz
• Greece’s prime minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis
• Honduras president Xiomara Castro
• Hungary’s president Tamas Sulyok
• Italy’s president Sergio Mattarella and prime minister Giorgia Meloni
• Latvian president Edgars Rinkevics
• Lithuanian president Gitanas Nauseda
• Moldova’s president Maia Sandu
• Netherlands’ prime minister Dick Schoof
• New Zealand’s prime minister Christopher Luxon
• Norway’s Crown Prince Haakon and Crown Princess Mette-Marit
• The Philippines’ president Ferdinand Marcos Jr
• Poland’s president Andrzej Duda
• Portugal’s president Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa and prime minister Luis Montenegro
• Romania’s interim president Ilie Bolojan
• Sweden’s King Carl XVI Gustaf, Queen Silvia and prime minister Ulf Kristersson
• Switzerland’s president Karin Keller-Sutter
Who won’t be there?
Pope Francis walks next to Putin at the Vatican in 2015. Pic: AP
The Russian president will not be attending the funeral, the Kremlin has confirmed.
But the controversial leader paid tribute to the Pope, writing a message to Cardinal Kevin Farrell, who is interim chief of the Catholic Church.
“Please accept my most sincere condolences on the passing of His Holiness Pope Francis,” Mr Putin said.
“Throughout the years of his pontificate, he actively promoted the development of dialogue between the Russian
Orthodox and Roman Catholic churches, as well as constructive cooperation between Russia and the Holy See.”
Pope Francis and Benjamin Netanyahu meet at the Vatican in 2013. Pic: AP
The Israeli prime minister is not expected to attend, with the country’s ambassador Yaron Sideman going instead.
The Jewish state and the Vatican have had strong relations in the past, with Israel sending a presidential delegation to the funeral of Pope John Paul II in 2005, and Pope Francis visiting Israel in 2014.
But their relationship has deteriorated since the start of the war in Gaza.
A month after the conflict started in 2023, a dispute broke out over whether Pope Francis had used the word “genocide” to describe events in Gaza. Palestinians who met with him said he did, but the Vatican said he did not.
The Pope met relatives of Israeli hostages on the same day.
Israeli officials have since lobbied the Vatican to be more forceful in its condemnation of Hamas.
In January, the Pope called the humanitarian situation in Gaza “shameful”, prompting criticism from Rome’s chief rabbi, Riccardo Di Segni, who accused Francis of “selective indignation”.
Rabbi Di Segni says he will be attending the funeral, despite it taking place on the Jewish sabbath.
Is there a seating plan?
The seats are assigned in advance, with the heads of state sitting in French alphabetical order based on their country’s name, rather than on the individual’s.
This applies to everyone apart from the presidents of Italy and Argentina, who get the best seats because the Pope lived in Italy and was an Argentinian native.
UK
Vincent Nichols: British cardinal who will be in the conclave says picking the next pope is ‘intimidating’
The head of the Catholic Church in England and Wales has told Sky News it’s “intimidating” to be one of those responsible for choosing the next pope.
Vincent Nichols is among four UK cardinals in Rome for the Pope’s funeral on Saturday.
Following the funeral, and after nine days of mourning, cardinals from around the world will gather in the Vatican’s Sistine Chapel to cast their votes, with white smoke announcing to the world when a new pope has been elected.
Cardinal Vincent Nichols speaks to Sky’s Anna Botting
Cardinal Nichols told Sky’s Anna Botting: “I hope nobody goes into this conclave, as it were, with the sole purpose of wanting to win. I think it’s very important that we go in wanting to listen to each other… It has to be together, trying to sense what God wants next. Not just for the church.”
He described the procession that took Pope Francis to lie in state as “the most moving thing I’ve ever attended here”.
Describing the Pope as a “master of the gesture and the phrase”, he also recalled the pontiff’s last journey away from the Vatican.
Cardinal Nichols said Pope Francis had visited the Regina Coeli prison, telling the inmates: “You know, except for the grace of God, it could well have been me … Don’t lose hope, God has you written in his heart.”
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The full order of service
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The Pope later told his doctor his last regret was not being able to wash the feet of the prisoners during that visit.
Becoming emotional, he also said the final message he would like to have given Pope Francis is “thank you”.
The 88-year-old died peacefully on Easter Monday, the Vatican confirmed.
Heads of state – including Sir Keir Starmer, Donald Trump and Emmanuel Macron – have all confirmed their attendance at his funeral, which takes place on Saturday at St Peter’s Square.
Prince William will attend on behalf of the King, Kensington Palace has said.
You can watch full coverage of the funeral live on Sky News on Saturday
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Where will Pope Francis be buried?
Talking about the seating plan at the funeral, Cardinal Nichols said he understood it to be “royalty first, then heads of state, then political leaders”.
Cardinal Nichols explained event would be “exactly the same Catholic rite as everyone else – just on a grander scale”.
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3D map shows pope’s funeral route
In a break from tradition, Pope Francis will be the first pope in a century to be interred outside the Vatican – and will instead be laid to rest at his favourite church, Santa Maria Maggiore Basilica in Rome’s Esquilino neighbourhood.
He will also be buried in just one simple wooden coffin, instead of the traditional three coffins which are usually used for pontiffs.
Born in Crosby near Liverpool, Cardinal Vincent Nichols hoped to be a lorry driver as a child – but as a teenager reportedly felt the calling to join the priesthood while watching Liverpool FC.
As cardinal, he is known for leading the church’s work tackling human trafficking and modern slavery, for which he received the UN Path to Peace Award.
He was criticised by the UK’s Independent Inquiry into Child Sexual Abuse, which said he “demonstrated a lack of understanding” of the impact of abuse and “seemingly put the reputation of the church first”.
Cardinal Nichols, responding to the findings, previously told Sky News he was “ashamed at what has happened in the context of the Catholic Church” and promised to improve the church’s response.
He has appeared to rule himself out of the running for pope, telling reporters he was “too old, not capable”.
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