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We need to talk about the main parties’ plans for housebuilding, but before we get to that there’s something important we need to discuss. Everything you thought you knew about the housebuilding numbers in this country is wrong. Quite dramatically wrong. And that has a bearing on, well, rather a lot when it comes to this topic.

I realise this is probably the last thing you need to process, with only a few weeks left until the election and rather a lot going on besides, but bear with me, because this is rather important.

Let’s start with the conventional picture most of us have in our heads about housebuilding in this country (actually in this case we’re talking about England, since most of the main statistics – and political housebuilding pledges – focus on England). It comes courtesy of a dataset published each quarter by the Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities.

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This dataset shows us the number of homes built in England – either housing starts (when work begins on a home) or completions (when the work is done).

Now, it’s not as if the government has someone with a clipboard going round the country noting how many buildings are being built; instead, the department uses data on building warranties (you generally get a 10 year warranty with a new home). This might all seem like too much information but, well, bear with me.

These numbers tell quite a simple story. Back in the 1960s and 70s, England was building lots and lots of homes – an annual average between 1969 and 1979 of around 260,000 – and, in some years, more than 300,000.

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But then, in the following years, the numbers dropped – and fast. They have never come anywhere close to those 1960s highs. In the past decade, between 2013 and 2023, the average number of homes being built was only 150,000 – way lower than the comparable period in the early 1970s.

Now, when you hear political parties talk about wanting to build 300,000 homes you probably wonder to yourself (I often have) about how on earth they could hit those numbers. But that’s what brings us to the main point here.

When you read in this or that party manifesto about a housebuilding target of 300,000 in England, the parties aren’t talking about the numbers you’re probably thinking about – those ones which show housebuilding at only 150,000 in the past decade. They’re talking about another set of numbers entirely.

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Inside a ‘housing revolution’

Because it turns out there’s an entirely separate dataset (from the same government department) which attempts to measure housebuilding slightly differently. This one counts the entire housing stock across the country – and when you know how many homes there are you can measure the change from one year to the next.

And that matters for two important reasons. First, because back in the 1960s and ’70s we weren’t just building lots of new homes, we were also knocking down lots of old homes. There were enormous programmes of slum demolitions.

If you really wanted to compare our housing availability today with back then, you really ought to adjust for that. Yet those conventional housebuilding figures do not.

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The second reason the other dataset matters is that it turns out those insurance figures the government has typically used to measure homebuilding no longer cover most of the housing market. There’s a massive gap.

All of which is to say, looking at the other dataset, and how the total number of homes changes from year to year (net addition, as it’s technically called) gives a far better picture of what’s really going on in the housing market.

And what is really going on is rather different to that conventional picture. In fact, the number of homes being built in recent years isn’t markedly lower than the comparable period in the 1970s. It’s higher!

This truer picture shows an average of 207,000 homes being added to England’s housing supply in the past decade, compared with an average of 198,000 between 1970 and 1980. It shows that actually we are building more new homes these days than we have done for some time.

You may or may not find this mind-blowing (I did when it was first explained to me by housing economist Neal Hudson but then perhaps that’s just me) but it’s certainly important. And these numbers are certainly more representative of what’s actually going on than the ones usually trotted out by journalists.

The other upshot of all of this is that those housebuilding figures each of the parties have in their manifestos look somewhat more doable than they did when looking through the other, flawed dataset. All of a sudden the gap between current housebuilding and, say, Labour’s 300,000 home target is not 140,000 but 65,000.

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Even so, it’s an open question about whether those targets are achievable. Labour have provided little extra money for housebuilding, instead committing to planning reform, which may well help, but might not narrow the gap as quickly as they hope.

Indeed, the only main nationwide party to have committed to a specific increase in council housebuilding, with specific sums, is the Liberal Democrats, who promised to spend £6.2bn on 150,000 social homes.

One thing that certainly seems to be the case is that with house prices high and immigration also at record levels, the UK will need considerably more homes in the coming years, notwithstanding the fact that the underlying picture is slightly less dire than the conventional statistics suggest.

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Nationwide police operation on grooming gangs announced

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Nationwide police operation on grooming gangs announced

A nationwide police operation to track down those in grooming gangs has been announced by the Home Office.

The National Crime Agency (NCA) will target those who have sexually exploited children as part of a grooming gang, and will investigate cases that were not previously progressed.

Home Secretary Yvette Cooper said in a statement: “The vulnerable young girls who suffered unimaginable abuse at the hands of groups of adult men have now grown into brave women who are rightly demanding justice for what they went through when they were just children.

“Not enough people listened to them then. That was wrong and unforgivable. We are changing that now.

“More than 800 grooming gang cases have already been identified by police after I asked them to look again at cases which had closed too early.

“Now we are asking the National Crime Agency to lead a major nationwide operation to track down more perpetrators and bring them to justice.”

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The NCA will work in partnership with police forces around the country and specialist officers from the Child Sexual Exploitation Taskforce, Operation Hydrant – which supports police forces to address all complex and high-profile cases of child sexual abuse – and the Tackling Organised Exploitation Programme.

It comes after Sir Keir Starmer announced a national inquiry into child sex abuse on Saturday, ahead of the release of a government-requested audit into the scale of grooming gangs across the country, which concluded a nationwide probe was necessary.

The prime minister previously argued a national inquiry was not necessary, but changed his view following an audit into group-based child sexual abuse led by Baroness Casey, set to be published next week.

Ms Cooper is set to address parliament on Monday about the findings of the near 200-page report, which is expected to warn that white British girls were “institutionally ignored for fear of racism”.

One person familiar with the report said it details the institutional failures in treating young girls and cites a decade of lost action from the Independent Inquiry into Child Sexual Abuse (IICSA), set up in 2014 to investigate grooming gangs in Rotherham.

The report is also expected to link illegal immigration with the exploitation of young girls.

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Kemi Badenoch, the Conservative leader, said on Saturday that Sir Keir should recognise “he made a mistake and apologise for six wasted months”.

Speaking to Sky’s Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips, Chancellor Rachel Reeves refused to say if the government will apologise for dismissing calls for a national public inquiry into grooming gangs.

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Rachel Reeves on Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips

She said: “What is the most important thing here? It is the victims, and it’s not people’s hurt feelings about how they have been spoken about.”

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Career spy Blaise Metreweli to become first woman to head MI6

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Career spy Blaise Metreweli to become first woman to head MI6

Career spy Blaise Metreweli will become the first woman to head MI6 in a “historic appointment”, the prime minister has announced.

She will take over from Sir Richard Moore as the 18th Chief, also known as “C”, when he steps down in the autumn.

“The historic appointment of Blaise Metreweli comes at a time when the work of our intelligence services has never been more vital,” Sir Keir Starmer said in a statement released on Sunday night.

“The United Kingdom is facing threats on an unprecedented scale – be it aggressors who send their spy ships to our waters or hackers whose sophisticated cyber plots seek to disrupt our public services.”

Of the other main spy agencies, GCHQ is also under female command for the first time.

Anne Keast-Butler took on the role in 2023, while MI5 has previously twice been led by a woman.

Until now, a female spy chief had only headed MI6 – also known as the Secret Intelligence Service (SIS) – in the James Bond movies.

A motorboat passes by the MI6 building in Vauxhall, London. Pic: Reuters
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Blaise Metreweli is the first woman to be named head of MI6. Pic: Reuters

Dame Judi Dench held the fictional role – called “M” in the films instead of “C” – between 1995 and 2015.

Ms Metreweli currently serves as “Q”, one of four director generals inside MI6.

The position – also made famous by the James Bond films, with the fictional “Q” producing an array of spy gadgets – means she is responsible for technology and innovation.

Ms Metreweli, a Cambridge graduate, joined MI6 in 1999.

Unlike the outgoing chief, who spent some of his service as a regular diplomat in the foreign office, including as ambassador to Turkey, she has spent her entire career as an intelligence officer.

Much of that time was dedicated to operational roles in the Middle East and Europe.

Ms Metreweli, who is highly regarded by colleagues, also worked as a director at MI5.

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In a statement, she said she was “proud and honoured to be asked to lead my service”.

“MI6 plays a vital role – with MI5 and GCHQ – in keeping the British people safe and promoting UK interests overseas,” she said.

“I look forward to continuing that work alongside the brave officers and agents of MI6 and our many international partners.”

Sir Richard said: “Blaise is a highly accomplished intelligence officer and leader, and one of our foremost thinkers on technology. I am excited to welcome her as the first female head of MI6.”

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Woman, 23, dies after falling in water at beauty spot in Scottish Highlands

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Woman, 23, dies after falling in water at beauty spot in Scottish Highlands

A woman has died after falling into the water at a popular beauty spot in the Scottish Highlands.

The 23-year-old had fallen into the water in the Rogie Falls area of Wester Ross.

Police Scotland confirmed emergency services attended the scene after being called at 1.45pm on Saturday.

“However, [she] was pronounced dead at the scene,” a spokesperson said.

“There are no suspicious circumstances and a report will be submitted to the Procurator Fiscal.”

Rogie Falls are a series of waterfalls on the Black Water, a river in Ross-shire in the Highlands of Scotland. They are a popular attraction for tourists on Scotland’s North Coast 500 road trip.

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