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The grim news for the Tories in the latest Sky News/YouGov poll begs another question about Rishi Sunak’s political judgement. Was a long election campaign a blunder?

The prime minister is already under fire from Conservative MPs and activists for gambling on an election in July rather than waiting for October or November.

The conventional wisdom was that economic news would be better by the autumn and deportation flights to Rwanda would help stop the boats bringing migrants across the Channel.

Election latest: ‘Real collapse’ for Tories after ‘uplift’ in support for Reform

But as well as doubts about a July poll, the big slump in Tory support since the last Sky News/YouGov poll on June 3, suggests a long campaign of six weeks may also have backfired.

On 22 May, the day the prime minister made his shock general election announcement, some veteran Tory MPs privately questioned Mr Sunak’s decision to fight a long campaign.

“Margaret used to have three or four-week campaigns,” one long-serving Conservative MP who has stepped down told Sky News, in a reference to three-times election winner Mrs Thatcher.

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But with the Tories trailing badly behind Labour in the polls for months, Mr Sunak clearly hoped a long election campaign would give his party more time to recover and close the gap.

However, the opposite appears to have happened. As the campaign continues, with polling day still two weeks away, opinion polls are suggesting bigger Conservative losses, not smaller.

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Poll: Labour on course for best-ever election result

On 3 June our YouGov poll suggested the Conservatives would hold 140 seats. Now the same pollsters are suggesting they’d hold just 108, well below their previous lowest of 141 in 1906.

The big change of course, has been Nigel Farage’s dramatic comeback as Reform UK leader on 3 June. In the Sky News/YouGov poll that day, Reform UK was not forecast to win any seats.

Now it’s five, including Mr Farage in Clacton. The other big movers are the Liberal Democrats, forecast to win 48 seats on 3 June, now 67. The latest poll is good news for smaller parties generally.

Labour’s seat projection is up slightly from 422 seats to 425 and its majority is up from 194 to 200. But it’s the Tory slump that’s the big change since the early days of the campaign.

So are those veteran MPs who lamented the glory days of Mrs Thatcher correct about previous Tory prime ministers opting for shorter campaigns? It would appear so.

Had Mr Sunak waited to call the election until January 2025 – the end of a maximum five-year term – parliament would have automatically been dissolved 25 working days before polling day, meaning he could have opted for a shorter campaign.

In 1983, when Mrs Thatcher won a landslide majority of 144 seats, she had announced the election on 9 May, parliament was dissolved on 13 May and polling day was four weeks later on 9 June.

Rishi Sunak poses with supporters before the launch of the Conservative Party General Election manifesto.
Pic: PA
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Sunak gambled on a July election Pic: PA

It was a similar story in 1987. Mrs Thatcher announced the election on 11 May and polling day was a month later on 11 June, when she won a second landslide and a majority of 102.

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In 1992, when Sir John Major pulled off a shock victory after months of trailing Neil Kinnock’s Labour badly in the opinion polls, the election campaign again lasted just 30 days.

Sir John asked the Queen to dissolve parliament on 11 March and voters went to polls on 9 April, when the Conservatives won a 21-seat majority over Labour.

Lord Cameron’s 2015 campaign, after five years of a Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition was longer. Parliament was dissolved on 30 March and the election was on 7 May, when he won a Tory majority of 10.

Margaret Thatcher in 1979. Pic: PA
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Margaret Thatcher used to have three to four week campaigns. Pic: PA

In the most recent general election, Boris Johnson’s dash to the polls in 2019, parliament was dissolved on 6 November and the election was on 12 December, with Mr Johnson winning an 80-seat majority.

This time, Mr Sunak has chosen a gruelling six-week campaign. More time for mistakes? And more time for the Tories’ opponents – Labour, the Lib Dems and Reform UK – to gain momentum?

It’s starting to look like that. At times since his D-day fiasco, the prime minister has looked crestfallen. Now senior Tories are talking about a Labour “super-majority” and a “blank cheque” for Sir Keir Starmer.

And there are still two weeks to go in this long, six-week campaign. But that was Mr Sunak’s choice.

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Suspect in $190M Nomad hack to be extradited to the US: Report

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Suspect in 0M Nomad hack to be extradited to the US: Report

Suspect in 0M Nomad hack to be extradited to the US: Report

A Russian-Israeli citizen allegedly involved in the $190 million Nomad bridge hack will soon be extradited to the US after he was reportedly arrested at an Israeli airport while boarding a flight to Russia. 

Alexander Gurevich will be investigated for his alleged involvement in several “computer crimes,” including laundering millions of dollars and transferring stolen property allegedly connected to the Nomad Bridge hack in 2022, The Jerusalem Post reported on May 5.

Gurevich returned to Israel from an overseas trip on April 19 but was ordered to appear before the Jerusalem District Court for an extradition hearing soon after, according to the report. 

On April 29, Gurevich changed his name in Israel’s Population Registry to “Alexander Block” and received a passport under that name at Israel’s Ben-Gurion Airport the next day.

He was arrested at the same airport two days later, on May 1, while waiting to board a flight to Russia. 

Gurevich allegedly identified a vulnerability in the Nomad bridge, which he exploited and stole roughly $2.89 million worth of tokens from in August 2022.

Dozens of copycat hackers discovered and capitalized on the security vulnerability soon after, leading to a total loss of $190 million.

Gurevich allegedly reached out to a Nomad executive on Telegram

Prosecutors allege that shortly after the hack, Gurevich messaged Nomad’s chief technology officer, James Prestwich, on Telegram using a fake identity, admitting that he had been “amateurishly” seeking a crypto protocol to exploit.

He allegedly apologized for “the trouble he caused Prestwich and his team” and voluntarily transferred about $162,000 into a recovery wallet the company had set up.

Prestwich told Gurevich that Nomad would pay him 10% of the value of the assets he had stolen, to which Gurevich responded that he would consult his lawyer. However, Nomad never heard back from him after that.

Russia, Israel, Telegram, United States, Hacks
Alleged messages between Gurevich and Nomad’s James Prestwich were shared on X by Israel-based Walla News journalist Yoav Itiel. Source: Yoav Itiel

At some point during the negotiations, Gurevich demanded a reward of $500,000 for identifying the vulnerability.

Related: Do Kwon is in US custody after extradition battle

US federal authorities filed an eight-count indictment against Gurevich in the Northern District of California on Aug. 16, 2023, in addition to obtaining a warrant for his arrest. California is where the team behind the Nomad bridge is based.

The US submitted a formal extradition request in December 2024, the Post noted.

The money laundering charges that Gurevich faces carry a maximum of 20 years, significantly harsher than what he would face in Israel.

Gurevich is believed to have arrived in Israel a few days before the $190 million exploit occurred, prompting Israeli officials to believe he carried out the attack while in Israel.

Magazine: Financial nihilism in crypto is over — It’s time to dream big again

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How Nigel Farage is flirting with Labour’s most loyal voters – and the battle to stop him

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How Nigel Farage is flirting with Labour's most loyal voters - and the battle to stop him

For much of its history, the trade union movement’s main opponent has been the Conservative Party. But now it finds itself taking on a different type of adversary – one it might describe as a wolf in sheep’s clothing.

It began when Nigel Farage, known for being a staunch advocate of free trade and private markets, declined to criticise the Unite union for its bin strike in Birmingham, before calling for the nationalisation of British Steel following the near collapse of its plant in Scunthorpe.

The Reform UK leader has been sweet-talking the trade unions, speaking their language and brandishing their leaflets in public in what appears to his critics to be a new opportunistic strategy.

Farage’s courting of union members has alarmed the movement’s leaders – so much so that Sky News understands the executive of the Trades Union Congress (TUC), which represents unions across the country, has been holding meetings to draw up a strategy on how best to combat his appeal and more broadly, the far-right.

Over the weekend, as the two main parties were processing the battering they received in the local elections largely courtesy of Farage’s party, Unison’s general secretary Christina McAnea urged members of councils now controlled by Reform to join a union.

“Unions are there to ensure no one can play fast and loose with the law,” she said, after Farage threatened to sack staff working in areas such as diversity or climate change.

‘Political fraud’

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Paul Nowak, the general secretary of the TUC, has begun to step up his criticism of the former UKIP leader – accusing him of “cosplaying as a champion of working people”.

“He is not on the side of the working people,” he tells Sky News. “He’s on the side of bad bosses who want to treat staff like disposable labour.

“Unions will continue to expose him for the political fraud he is.”

At the moment, that campaign is largely focused on highlighting Farage’s voting record – in particular his decision to oppose the Employment Rights Bill, legislation unions say they have wanted for decades.

The bill offers protection from unfair dismissal from the first day of employment and sick pay for all workers from the first day of absence, among other measures.

The TUC says the bill is incredibly popular – and not just among Labour voters.

According to a poll it conducted of more than 21,000 people with campaign group Hope Not Hate, banning zero hours contracts is supported by more than seven in 10 UK voters – including two in three Reform voters from the 2024 election.

“People are going to find there are improvements to their life and work,” an insider tells Sky News. “We want them to understand who was for it, and who was against it.”

The TUC has also begun promoting videos on social media in which workers in the electric vehicle industry accuse Farage of threatening their jobs.

Farage’s response to the bill has been to claim that a clause within in that gives workers protection from third party harassment could herald the end of “pub banter”.

‘There has always been fellow feeling with unions’

But Gawain Towler, an ex-Reform press officer who has worked on and off for Farage for 20 years, insists his former boss isn’t against workers’ rights – he’s just opposed to Labour’s bill.

“Reform don’t see it as a workers rights’ bill – we think it takes away opportunities for work because it scares people away from employing people,” he says.

Nigel Farage reacts next to a local in Scunthorpe.
Pic: Reuters
Image:
Nigel Farage campaigning during the local elections in Scunthorpe.
Pic: Reuters

He believes “mass migration” is the real obstacle to better wages and job security, and argues net zero policies are “costing union members their jobs”.

The government may point to a recent study suggesting the net zero sector has grown by 10% over the past year, supporting the equivalent of 951,000 full-time jobs.

For Farage’s allies, his courting of union members is neither disingenuous nor new.

“He’s anti-union management, he’s not anti-union,” says Towler, who noted Farage’s friendship with the late union leader and Brexit advocate Bob Crow.

“Nigel has always been a free trader, but he’s never been deeply partisan, which is why he was able to start the Brexit Party. There has always been that fellow feeling with unions.”

Indeed, on one issue, a commonality is emerging between Reform and the GMB union.

While general secretary Gary Smith has criticised Farage for being “soft on Russia” and for voting against the Employment Rights Bill, there is an agreement between the pair over the impact of net zero.

Those sceptical of the government’s plans for the green transition point to Port Talbot in Wales, where 2,500 workers are expected to lose their jobs, and Grangemouth, where the closure of Scotland’s last remaining oil refinery is expected to result in around 400 job losses.

Members of Unite union take part in a demonstration to protest at Petroineos plans to close Grangemouth oil refinery.
Pic: PA
Image:
Members of Unite union protest at plans to close Grangemouth oil refinery.
Pic: PA

Although Unite has no common truck with Reform, it has warned there should be “no ban without a plan” when it comes to issuing new oil and gas licences.

‘Labour has one shot with workers’

For some unions, Labour’s position on certain issues has provided Reform with an opening.

There’s disappointment at some Labour policies in government – from partly watering down the Employment Rights Bill to stave off dissent from business leaders, to welfare cuts and offering below-inflation pay rises for public sector workers.

Gawain Little, the general secretary of the General Federation of Trade Unions, tells Sky News the party risks leaving “space open for fakers like Farage to come along and pretend they have people’s interests at heart”.

Only a sense that austerity is over, likewise the cost of living crisis, will truly “challenge” the Reform leader, he says.

One GMB member says Farage’s strategy is “from the same playbook” as right-wing parties in Europe, such as the AfD in Germany and Georgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy.

By “continuously legitimising” Reform by talking tough on migration, union activists who usually get the word out for Labour have been left demoralised.

Farage on the picket line?

The current distance with some unions did not start in government. It began in opposition, when Labour refused to back workers who were on strike and when the party did not endorse some candidates put forward by some of the more left-wing unions.

But so far, sources in Labour have dismissed Farage’s tactics as just words – and believe his previous anti-union rhetoric will weigh against him when he tries to court votes.

In fact, Mr Farage’s calls for the renationalisation of steel have been interpreted as him “trying to jump on the bandwagon” of Labour’s success.

However, Damian Lyons Lowe, the founder of pollster Survation, spots danger for Labour if Farage is able to successfully tilt in the direction of workers’ rights – especially if the government finds itself unable to follow.

He says taking the side of unions in an industrial dispute over pay would be an example of a classic “wedge” strategy that Farage can deploy to back Labour into a corner.

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And given the government’s initial 2.8% pay offer to public sector workers is below that reportedly drawn up by the independent pay review body for NHS workers and teachers, there is the very real prospect this scenario could arise.

“It could pose a real threat to Labour,” Lyons Lowe says, with union members in “post-industrial” areas potentially receptive to a message of “protectionism, industrial revival, and national self-sufficiency”.

Could what started with Farage brandishing leaflets end up with him joining the picket line?

While one union insider doesn’t think Farage will ultimately convince union leaders, members may be tempted.

The Starmer government has “one shot to deliver for workers”, they warn.

“If they don’t, Farage and Reform are waiting in the wings.”

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New crypto bill draft seen to curb big crypto firm influence

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New crypto bill draft seen to curb big crypto firm influence

New crypto bill draft seen to curb big crypto firm influence

The new “Digital Asset Market Structure Discussion Draft” introduced by House Republicans on May 5 could work to reduce the dominance of large crypto firms and promote more participation in the broader market, according to an executive from Paradigm. 

The discussion draft, led by the House agricultural and financial services committee chairs Glenn Thompson and French Hill, is an “incremental, albeit meaningful, rewrite” of the Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act (FIT21), Paradigm’s vice president of regulatory affairs Justin Slaughter said in a May 5 X post.

New crypto bill draft seen to curb big crypto firm influence
One-pager of the digital asset market structure discussion draft submitted by House Republicans on May 5. Source: US House Agriculture Committee

One of the major changes from FIT21 is that the draft defines an affiliated person as anyone who owns more than 1% of a digital commodity issued by the project — down from 5% in the FIT21 bill — a move Slaughter said may curb the influence of big crypto firms and lead to more participation in the crypto market.

“This is a portent of the entire bill. There are often criticisms of crypto being too dominated by a few large firms. This bill makes clear the regulatory regime proposed is going to push against that fact and strongly encourage more small-d ‘democratization’ of the space.”

The draft also defines a “mature blockchain system” as one that, together with its related digital commodity, is not under the “common control” of any person or group.

New crypto bill draft seen to curb big crypto firm influence
Source: Justin Slaughter

The Securities and Exchange Commission would be the main authority regulating activity on crypto networks until they become sufficiently decentralized, Slaughter noted.

The draft also clarified that decentralized finance trading protocols are those that enable users to engage in a financial transaction in a “self-directed manner.” Protocols that meet this criterion are exempt from registering as digital commodity brokers or dealers.

The draft also referred to digital commodities as “investment contract assets” to distinguish their treatment from stocks and other traditional assets under the Howey test.

According to Slaughter’s analysis, securities laws won’t be triggered unless the secondary sale of tokens also transfers ownership or profit in the underlying business.

Crypto firms would also have a path to raise funds under the SEC’s oversight while also having a “clear process” to register their digital commodities with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the committee members said in a separate May 5 statement.

Joint rulemaking, procedures, or guidelines related to crypto asset delisting must be established by the CFTC and SEC should a registered asset no longer comply with rules laid out by the regulators.

A ‘clear opportunity’ to advance crypto innovation, rules once and for all

Speaking about the need for a comprehensive crypto regulatory framework, the House committee members said crypto is a “clear opportunity” to advance innovation in the US — most notably through modernizing America’s financial infrastructure and reinforcing US dollar dominance.

The Republicans criticized the previous Biden administration and the Gary Gensler-led SEC for adopting a regulation-by-enforcement strategy rather than creating clear rules for market participants.

Related: VanEck files for BNB ETF, first in US

Many crypto firms were stuck in “legal limbo” as a result of the unclear rules, which pushed some industry players overseas, where clearer rules exist, the House committee members said.

“America needs to be the powerhouse for digital asset investment and innovation. For that to happen, we need a commonsense regulatory regime,” said Dusty Johnson, chairman of the subcommittee on commodity markets, digital assets and rural development.

Slaughter added: “This is the bill that will, finally, provide a clear regulatory regime on crypto that many have been calling for.”

Republicans already facing roadblocks over discussion draft

House Financial Services Committee Ranking Member Maxine Waters plans to block a Republican-led event discussing digital assets on May 6, a Democratic staffer told Cointelegraph.

The hearing, “American Innovation and the Future of Digital Assets,” is expected to discuss the new crypto markets draft discussion paper pitched by Thompson, Hill, and other committee members.

However, according to the unnamed Democratic staffer, the current rules require all members of the House Financial Services Committee to agree on such hearings.

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