Has Rishi Sunak blundered by opting for long, six-week election campaign?

Published

10 months ago

June 20, 2024

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The grim news for the Tories in the latest Sky News/YouGov poll begs another question about Rishi Sunak’s political judgement. Was a long election campaign a blunder?

The prime minister is already under fire from Conservative MPs and activists for gambling on an election in July rather than waiting for October or November.

The conventional wisdom was that economic news would be better by the autumn and deportation flights to Rwanda would help stop the boats bringing migrants across the Channel.

Election latest: ‘Real collapse’ for Tories after ‘uplift’ in support for Reform

But as well as doubts about a July poll, the big slump in Tory support since the last Sky News/YouGov poll on June 3, suggests a long campaign of six weeks may also have backfired.

On 22 May, the day the prime minister made his shock general election announcement, some veteran Tory MPs privately questioned Mr Sunak’s decision to fight a long campaign.

“Margaret used to have three or four-week campaigns,” one long-serving Conservative MP who has stepped down told Sky News, in a reference to three-times election winner Mrs Thatcher.

But with the Tories trailing badly behind Labour in the polls for months, Mr Sunak clearly hoped a long election campaign would give his party more time to recover and close the gap.

However, the opposite appears to have happened. As the campaign continues, with polling day still two weeks away, opinion polls are suggesting bigger Conservative losses, not smaller.

On 3 June our YouGov poll suggested the Conservatives would hold 140 seats. Now the same pollsters are suggesting they’d hold just 108, well below their previous lowest of 141 in 1906.

The big change of course, has been Nigel Farage’s dramatic comeback as Reform UK leader on 3 June. In the Sky News/YouGov poll that day, Reform UK was not forecast to win any seats.

Now it’s five, including Mr Farage in Clacton. The other big movers are the Liberal Democrats, forecast to win 48 seats on 3 June, now 67. The latest poll is good news for smaller parties generally.

Labour’s seat projection is up slightly from 422 seats to 425 and its majority is up from 194 to 200. But it’s the Tory slump that’s the big change since the early days of the campaign.

So are those veteran MPs who lamented the glory days of Mrs Thatcher correct about previous Tory prime ministers opting for shorter campaigns? It would appear so.

Had Mr Sunak waited to call the election until January 2025 – the end of a maximum five-year term – parliament would have automatically been dissolved 25 working days before polling day, meaning he could have opted for a shorter campaign.

In 1983, when Mrs Thatcher won a landslide majority of 144 seats, she had announced the election on 9 May, parliament was dissolved on 13 May and polling day was four weeks later on 9 June.

It was a similar story in 1987. Mrs Thatcher announced the election on 11 May and polling day was a month later on 11 June, when she won a second landslide and a majority of 102.

In 1992, when Sir John Major pulled off a shock victory after months of trailing Neil Kinnock’s Labour badly in the opinion polls, the election campaign again lasted just 30 days.

Sir John asked the Queen to dissolve parliament on 11 March and voters went to polls on 9 April, when the Conservatives won a 21-seat majority over Labour.

Lord Cameron’s 2015 campaign, after five years of a Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition was longer. Parliament was dissolved on 30 March and the election was on 7 May, when he won a Tory majority of 10.

In the most recent general election, Boris Johnson’s dash to the polls in 2019, parliament was dissolved on 6 November and the election was on 12 December, with Mr Johnson winning an 80-seat majority.

This time, Mr Sunak has chosen a gruelling six-week campaign. More time for mistakes? And more time for the Tories’ opponents – Labour, the Lib Dems and Reform UK – to gain momentum?

It’s starting to look like that. At times since his D-day fiasco, the prime minister has looked crestfallen. Now senior Tories are talking about a Labour “super-majority” and a “blank cheque” for Sir Keir Starmer.

And there are still two weeks to go in this long, six-week campaign. But that was Mr Sunak’s choice.

Politics

Nearly 400,000 FTX users risk losing $2.5 billion in repayments

Published

3 hours ago

April 6, 2025

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Nearly 400,000 FTX users risk losing .5 billion in repayments

Nearly 400,000 creditors of the bankrupt cryptocurrency exchange FTX risk missing out on $2.5 billion in repayments after failing to begin the mandatory Know Your Customer (KYC) verification process.

Roughly 392,000 FTX creditors have failed to complete or at least take the first steps of the mandatory Know Your Customer verification, according to an April 2 court filing in the US Bankruptcy Court for the District of Delaware.

FTX users originally had until March 3 to begin the verification process to collect their claims.

“If a holder of a claim listed on Schedule 1 attached thereto did not commence the KYC submission process with respect to such claim on or prior to March 3, 2025, at 4:00 pm (ET) (the “KYC Commencing Deadline”), 2 such claim shall be disallowed and expunged in its entirety,” the filing states.

Nearly 400,000 FTX users risk losing $2.5 billion in repayments — *FTX court filing. Source:* *Bloomberglaw.com*

The KYC deadline has been extended to June 1, 2025, giving users another chance to verify their identity and claim eligibility. Those who fail to meet the new deadline may have their claims permanently disqualified.

According to the court documents, claims under $50,000 could account for roughly $655 million in disallowed repayments, while claims over $50,000 could amount to $1.9 billion — bringing the total at-risk funds to more than $2.5 billion.

The next round of FTX creditor repayments is set for May 30, 2025, with over $11 billion expected to be repaid to creditors with claims of over $50,000.

Under FTX’s recovery plan, 98% of creditors are expected to receive at least 118% of their original claim value in cash.

How FTX users can complete KYC

Many FTX users have reported problems with the KYC process.

However, users who were unable to submit their KYC documentation can resubmit their application and restart the verification process, according to an April 5 X post from Sunil, FTX creditor and Customer Ad-Hoc Committee member.

Impacted users should email FTX support (support@ftx.com) to receive a ticket number, then log in to the support portal, create an account, and re-upload the necessary KYC documents.

FTX’s Bahamian subsidiary, FTX Digital Markets, processed the first round of repayments in February, distributing $1.2 billion to creditors.

The crypto industry is still recovering from the collapse of FTX and more than 130 subsidiaries launched a series of insolvencies that led to the industry’s longest-ever crypto winter, which saw Bitcoin’s (BTC) price bottom out at around $16,000.

While not a “market-moving catalyst” in itself, the beginning of the FTX repayments is a positive sign for the maturation of the crypto industry, which may see a “significant portion” reinvested into cryptocurrencies, Alvin Kan, chief operating officer at Bitget Wallet, told Cointelegraph.

Magazine: XRP win leaves Ripple a ‘bad actor’ with no crypto legal precedent set

Politics

Sir Keir Starmer pledges to protect UK companies from Trump tariff ‘storm’

Published

4 hours ago

April 6, 2025

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Sir Keir Starmer pledges to protect UK companies from Trump tariff 'storm'

Sir Keir Starmer has said his government stands ready to use industrial policy to “shelter British business from the storm” after Donald Trump’s new 10% tariff kicked in.

The UK was among a number of countries hit with the lowest import duty rate following the president’s announcement on 2 April – which he called ‘Liberation Day’, while other nations, such as Vietnam, Cambodia and China face much higher US levies.

But a global trade war will hurt the UK’s open economy.

The prime minister said “these new times demand a new mentality”, after the 10% tax on British imports into America came into force on Saturday. A 25% US levy on all foreign car imports was introduced on Thursday.

It comes as Jaguar Land Rover announced it would “pause” shipments to the US for a month, as firms grapple with the new taxes.

On Saturday, the car manufacturer said it was working to “address the new trading terms” and was looking to “develop our mid to longer-term plans”.

Referring to the tariffs, Sir Keir said “the immediate priority is to keep calm and fight for the best deal”.

Writing in The Sunday Telegraph, he said that in the coming days “we will turbocharge plans that will improve our domestic competitiveness”, adding: “We stand ready to use industrial policy to help shelter British business from the storm.”

It is believed a number of announcements could be made soon as ministers look to encourage growth.

NI contribution rate for employers goes up

From Sunday, the rate of employer NICs (national insurance contributions) increased from 13.8% to 15%.

At the same time, firms will also pay more because the government lowered the salary threshold at which companies start paying NICs from £9,100 to £5,000.

Also, the FTSE 100 of leading UK companies had its worst day of trading since the start of the pandemic on Friday, with banks among some of the firms to suffer the sharpest losses.

Sir Keir said: “This week, the government will do everything necessary to protect Britain’s national interest. Because when global economic sands are shifting, our laser focus on delivering for Britain will not. And these new times demand a new mentality.”

UK spared highest tariff rates

Some of the highest rates have been applied to “worst offender” countries including some in Southeast Asia. Imports from Cambodia will be subject to a 49% tariff, while those from Vietnam will face a 46% rate. Chinese goods will be hit with a 34% tariff.

Imports from France will have a 20% tariff, the rate which has been set for European Union nations. These will come into effect on 9 April.

Sir Keir has been speaking to foreign leaders on the phone over the weekend, including French President Emmanuel Macron, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, to discuss the tariff changes.

A Downing Street spokesperson said of the conversation between Sir Keir and Mr Macron: “They agreed that a trade war was in nobody’s interests but nothing should be off the table and that it was important to keep business updated on developments.

“The prime minister and president also shared their concerns about the global economic and security impact, particularly in Southeast Asia.”

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Trump’s warning

Mr Trump has warned Americans the tariffs “won’t be easy”, but urged them to “hang tough”.

In a post on his Truth Social platform, he said: “We are bringing back jobs and businesses like never before.

“Already, more than FIVE TRILLION DOLLARS OF INVESTMENT, and rising fast!

“THIS IS AN ECONOMIC REVOLUTION, AND WE WILL WIN. HANG TOUGH, it won’t be easy, but the end result will be historic.”

Politics

Billionaire investor would ‘not be surprised’ if Trump postpones tariffs

Published

8 hours ago

April 6, 2025

admin

<div>Billionaire investor would 'not be surprised' if Trump postpones tariffs</div>

Crypto-friendly billionaire investor Bill Ackman is considering the possibility that US President Donald Trump may pause the implementation of his controversial proposed tariffs on April 7.

“One would have to imagine that President Donald Trump’s phone has been ringing off the hook. The practical reality is that there is insufficient time for him to make deals before the tariffs are scheduled to take effect,” Ackman, founder of Pershing Square Capital Management, said in an April 5 X post.

Trump may postpone tariffs to make more deals, says Ackman

“I would, therefore, not be surprised to wake up Monday with an announcement from the President that he was postponing the implementation of the tariffs to give him time to make deals,” Ackman added.

On April 2, Trump signed an executive order establishing a 10% baseline tariff on all imports from all countries, which took effect on April 5. Harsher reciprocal tariffs on trading partners with which the US has the largest trade deficits are scheduled to kick in on April 9.

Ackman — who famously said “crypto is here to stay” after the FTX collapse in November 2022 — said Trump captured the attention of the world and US trading partners, backing the tariffs as necessary after what he called an “unfair tariff regime” that hurt US workers and economy “over many decades.”

Following Trump’s announcement on April 2, the US stock market shed more value during the April 4 trading session than the entire crypto market is currently worth. The fact that crypto held up better than the US stock market caught the attention of both crypto industry supporters and skeptics.

United States, Donald Trump — *Source:* *Cameron Winklevoss*

Prominent crypto voices such as BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes and Gemini co-founder Cameron Winklevoss also recently showed their support for Trump’s tariffs.

Ackman said a pause would be a logical move by Trump — not just to allow time for closing potential deals but also to give companies of all sizes “time to prepare for changes.” He added: