Has Rishi Sunak blundered by opting for long, six-week election campaign?

Published

11 months ago

June 20, 2024

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The grim news for the Tories in the latest Sky News/YouGov poll begs another question about Rishi Sunak’s political judgement. Was a long election campaign a blunder?

The prime minister is already under fire from Conservative MPs and activists for gambling on an election in July rather than waiting for October or November.

The conventional wisdom was that economic news would be better by the autumn and deportation flights to Rwanda would help stop the boats bringing migrants across the Channel.

Election latest: ‘Real collapse’ for Tories after ‘uplift’ in support for Reform

But as well as doubts about a July poll, the big slump in Tory support since the last Sky News/YouGov poll on June 3, suggests a long campaign of six weeks may also have backfired.

On 22 May, the day the prime minister made his shock general election announcement, some veteran Tory MPs privately questioned Mr Sunak’s decision to fight a long campaign.

“Margaret used to have three or four-week campaigns,” one long-serving Conservative MP who has stepped down told Sky News, in a reference to three-times election winner Mrs Thatcher.

But with the Tories trailing badly behind Labour in the polls for months, Mr Sunak clearly hoped a long election campaign would give his party more time to recover and close the gap.

However, the opposite appears to have happened. As the campaign continues, with polling day still two weeks away, opinion polls are suggesting bigger Conservative losses, not smaller.

On 3 June our YouGov poll suggested the Conservatives would hold 140 seats. Now the same pollsters are suggesting they’d hold just 108, well below their previous lowest of 141 in 1906.

The big change of course, has been Nigel Farage’s dramatic comeback as Reform UK leader on 3 June. In the Sky News/YouGov poll that day, Reform UK was not forecast to win any seats.

Now it’s five, including Mr Farage in Clacton. The other big movers are the Liberal Democrats, forecast to win 48 seats on 3 June, now 67. The latest poll is good news for smaller parties generally.

Labour’s seat projection is up slightly from 422 seats to 425 and its majority is up from 194 to 200. But it’s the Tory slump that’s the big change since the early days of the campaign.

So are those veteran MPs who lamented the glory days of Mrs Thatcher correct about previous Tory prime ministers opting for shorter campaigns? It would appear so.

Had Mr Sunak waited to call the election until January 2025 – the end of a maximum five-year term – parliament would have automatically been dissolved 25 working days before polling day, meaning he could have opted for a shorter campaign.

In 1983, when Mrs Thatcher won a landslide majority of 144 seats, she had announced the election on 9 May, parliament was dissolved on 13 May and polling day was four weeks later on 9 June.

It was a similar story in 1987. Mrs Thatcher announced the election on 11 May and polling day was a month later on 11 June, when she won a second landslide and a majority of 102.

In 1992, when Sir John Major pulled off a shock victory after months of trailing Neil Kinnock’s Labour badly in the opinion polls, the election campaign again lasted just 30 days.

Sir John asked the Queen to dissolve parliament on 11 March and voters went to polls on 9 April, when the Conservatives won a 21-seat majority over Labour.

Lord Cameron’s 2015 campaign, after five years of a Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition was longer. Parliament was dissolved on 30 March and the election was on 7 May, when he won a Tory majority of 10.

In the most recent general election, Boris Johnson’s dash to the polls in 2019, parliament was dissolved on 6 November and the election was on 12 December, with Mr Johnson winning an 80-seat majority.

This time, Mr Sunak has chosen a gruelling six-week campaign. More time for mistakes? And more time for the Tories’ opponents – Labour, the Lib Dems and Reform UK – to gain momentum?

It’s starting to look like that. At times since his D-day fiasco, the prime minister has looked crestfallen. Now senior Tories are talking about a Labour “super-majority” and a “blank cheque” for Sir Keir Starmer.

And there are still two weeks to go in this long, six-week campaign. But that was Mr Sunak’s choice.

Politics

IRS appoints Trish Turner to head crypto division amid resignations

Published

5 hours ago

May 6, 2025

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IRS appoints Trish Turner to head crypto division amid resignations

Veteran US Internal Revenue Service (IRS) official Trish Turner was appointed to lead the agency’s digital assets division following the departure of two key crypto-focused executives.

Turner, who has spent over 20 years at the IRS and most recently served as a senior adviser within the Digital Assets Office, will now head the unit, according to a report from Bloomberg Tax citing a person familiar with the situation.

Her promotion marks a significant leadership transition at a time when US crypto tax enforcement is facing both internal and external pressures.

On May 5, Sulolit “Raj” Mukherjee and Seth Wilks, two private-sector experts brought in to lead the IRS’s crypto unit, exited after roughly a year in their roles.

Mukherjee served as compliance and implementation executive director, while Wilks oversaw strategy and development. Wilks announced his departure on LinkedIn, while Mukherjee confirmed his decision in a statement to Bloomberg Tax.

“The reality is that federal employees have faced a very difficult environment over the past few months,” Wilks wrote. “If stepping aside helps preserve someone else’s job, then I am at peace with the decision.”

IRS ramps up crypto scrutiny

The IRS has ramped up its focus on cryptocurrency in recent years, increasing audits and criminal probes targeting digital asset transactions.

It also attempted to introduce broad crypto broker reporting requirements, which drew sharp criticism from industry stakeholders and was eventually overturned by President Donald Trump.

Set to take effect in 2027, the so-called IRS DeFi broker rule would have expanded the tax authority’s existing reporting requirements to include DeFi platforms, requiring them to disclose gross proceeds from crypto sales, including information regarding taxpayers involved in the transactions.

Turner’s leadership also comes during a shift in Washington’s approach to crypto regulation.

With the return of the Trump administration in January, federal agencies have scaled back regulations perceived as burdensome to digital asset innovation.

For instance, the Securities and Exchange Commission has dropped or paused over a dozen enforcement cases against crypto companies. Additionally, the Department of Justice has announced the dissolution of its cryptocurrency enforcement unit, signaling a softer approach to the sector.

Internally, the IRS is also navigating instability. Over 23,000 employees have reportedly expressed interest in resigning after Trump reintroduced a deferred resignation policy, raising concerns about long-term staffing and morale within the agency.

Magazine: Bitcoin to $1M ‘by 2029,’ CIA tips its hat to Bitcoin: Hodler’s Digest, April 27 – May 3

Politics

OKX exec warns against hype amid real-world asset tokenization boom

Published

6 hours ago

May 6, 2025

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OKX exec warns against hype amid real-world asset tokenization boom

The CEO of crypto exchange OKX’s Middle East and North Africa (MENA) division has called on the industry to prioritize real-world utility as interest in tokenizing real-world assets (RWAs) continues to grow.

In a Cointelegraph interview at the Token20249 event in Dubai, OKX MENA CEO Rifad Mahasneh warned that while tokenization is promising, projects must “clearly demonstrate” the benefits of tokenizing specific assets.

“In some cases, we’re tokenizing things that don’t need tokenization, but in some cases, we’re tokenizing things that actually give you real, everyday value, right? And if you can see that everyday value, then that is a promising project,” Mahasneh told Cointelegraph.

He said hype can drive project growth in the Web3 space, but providing everyday value should be the priority.

RWA tokenization gains traction in the UAE

Mahasneh’s comments come amid an increase in real-world asset tokenization projects in the Middle East, including the United Arab Emirates.

On May 1, MultiBank Group signed a $3 billion RWA agreement with the UAE-based real-estate firm MAG and blockchain infrastructure provider Mavryk — the largest RWA initiative worldwide to date.

In addition to billions in RWA deals, the UAE government has started working on RWA tokenization. On March 19, the Dubai Land Department — the government agency responsible for promoting, organizing and registering real estate in Dubai — announced a pilot phase of its real-estate tokenization project. The agency is working with Dubai’s Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority (VARA), the emirate’s crypto regulator.

On Jan. 9, RWA project Mantra also signed a $1 billion deal with Damac Group to tokenize the assets of the UAE-based conglomerate. However, months later, Mantra saw one of the biggest token collapses in crypto history, wiping out billions in market capitalization on April 13.

Mahasneh told Cointelegraph that the region’s clear regulations help drive bigger institutions to get into tokenization and crypto. He said regulatory clarity allows understanding of how key players in the space, like exchanges, are governed.

UAE stablecoin framework gives institutions confidence

The executive also praised the region’s progress in stablecoin regulations. In June 2024, the Central Bank of the UAE approved a regulatory framework for stablecoin licensing. This clarified the issuance, supervision and licensing of dirham-backed payment tokens.

According to Mahasneh, this demonstrates the UAE’s speed in regulating crypto-related technologies. The executive also highlighted that the central bank’s involvement gives institutions extra confidence in entering the business.

“Other markets are still debating whether they should have crypto regulations. Here, we moved into developing stablecoin regulations. For an investor, you want to know that your stablecoin is regulated. That’s a big plus,” Mahasneh said.

Since then, major players like Tether have joined the race by issuing a dirham-pegged stablecoin. On April 29, institutions like Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth fund, the Abu Dhabi Developmental Holding Company (ADQ), First Abu Dhabi Bank and the International Holding Company partnered to launch a dirham-pegged stablecoin, pending regulatory approval.

Magazine: Crypto wanted to overthrow banks, now it’s becoming them in stablecoin fight

Politics

US Senate crypto bills stall amid Trump ties and ethics concerns

Published

6 hours ago

May 6, 2025

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US Senate crypto bills stall amid Trump ties and ethics concerns

Efforts to pass crypto legislation in the US Senate face mounting resistance amid growing ethical concerns around US President Donald Trump’s ties to crypto.

In a May 5 letter to the Office of Government Ethics, Senators Elizabeth Warren and Jeff Merkley said that Trump and his family stand to personally profit from an investment involving UAE state-backed firm MGX, crypto exchange Binance and World Liberty Financial (WLFI).

The senators called for an urgent probe, warning the deal may violate the US Constitution’s Emoluments Clause and federal bribery statutes.

At the center of the controversy is WLFI’s USD1 stablecoin, reportedly chosen for a $2 billion investment MGX plans to make into Binance.

The senators said the transaction amounts to a potential backdoor for foreign influence and self-enrichment, with Trump’s allies allegedly set to receive hundreds of millions of dollars:

“This deal raises the troubling prospect that the Trump and Witkoff families could expand the use of their stablecoin as an avenue to profit from foreign corruption.”

Further complicating ethics concerns, Trump hosted a $1.5 million-per-plate dinner on May 5 at his golf club in Sterling, Virginia. The event came just days after hosting a $1 million-per-plate fundraiser for the MAGA super PAC.

He also plans to hold a gala dinner with major Official Trump (TRUMP) memecoin holders on May 22, despite multiple US lawmakers expressing concerns.

GENIUS Act faces roadblocks

The Trump family’s controversial $2 billion crypto deal comes as the Senate prepares to vote on the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act and other crypto-related bills.

The fallout is already being felt in Congress. Some Democratic lawmakers are pushing for additional hearings before advancing any legislation, while others question whether Trump’s personal stake in digital assets is undermining bipartisan support for crypto regulation.

On May 5, Senate Majority Leader John Thune signaled a willingness to amend the GOP-backed stablecoin legislation to pass the bill in the coming weeks.

Speaking to reporters, Thune said changes can be made on the floor and that he is waiting to hear what Democrats are asking for, per a report from Politico.

Internal GOP challenges also remain, with Senator Rand Paul expressing uncertainty about backing the bill, according to the report.

The stalling isn’t limited to the Senate. House Financial Services Committee ranking member Representative Maxine Waters plans to block a Republican-led event discussing digital assets on May 6.

The hearing, “American Innovation and the Future of Digital Assets,” will discuss a new crypto markets draft discussion paper pitched by the House agricultural and financial services committee chairs, Representatives Glenn Thompson and French Hill, respectively.

Crypto community slams political pushback

Prominent crypto figures are speaking out as political resistance threatens to derail stablecoin legislation in the Senate.

“Elizabeth Warren and Chuck Schumer haven’t learned their lesson,” Tyler Winklevoss, co-founder of Gemini, posted on X.

“If they want Democrats to continue losing elections, they will continue standing in front of crypto legislation like the stablecoin bill which they are stalling out in the Senate.”