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If you want a good idea of what matters to each party – its deepest desires, its darkest fears – look at where it’s spending money. 

What it shows is a story of Labour spending big and spending everywhere, as it pursues a plausible supermajority, while the Conservatives retreat to fight for some of their heartland constituencies, and spend much less.

It shows the current state of play for all parties across the country. The map shows which is the biggest spender in each constituency – which parts of the country they’re fighting to win, or not to lose.

The map was created by Who Targets Me (WTM), which tracks digital political advertising and has partnered with Sky News as part of our online campaign team.

“Our map of advertising activity shows where the parties have targeted their Facebook and Instagram ads in the last week,” Sam Jeffers, executive director of WTM, says.

“In the same way careful observers track the seats party leaders visit during the campaign, the list of pages that are buying ads in each seat, helps to show whether parties think they can win there.”

We can break the map down for each party too.

You can see the Lib Dems spending big on the ‘”A30 corridor in the South West”, going for Conservative seats.

Both the Conservatives and the Greens are in a big spending battle in South Wales and the West Country.

Reform is targeting constituencies around southern Lincolnshire. And we can understand why parties are spending where they are if we compare to the predicted results from the latest YouGov MRP poll for Sky News.

We can show you how the digital war has been fought over the last few weeks – the ebb and the flow, if there has been one, between Labour and Conservative.

Labour first. They have spent by far the most this election: more than £2.7m since the start.

This is how their online campaign has spread geographically over the past six weeks.

“The map shows the scale of Labour’s ambition, with them running ads across large swathes of the country, and outcompeting both the Conservatives and Reform in England and Wales, as well as the SNP across the central belt of Scotland,” says Mr Jeffers.

Compare that to the Conservatives, who have spent only just over £1m on Meta and Google ads. And it has been dwindling: as the days go by, they’re spending less money than their competitors in big swathes of the country.

Back to the big picture. Comparing the digital spend map to the latest YouGov MRP poll for Sky News reveals some interesting battlegrounds.

The Greens spent the most of any party in any constituency up to 17 June but the MRP suggests this will be a likely Conservative hold – with the Greens coming in second. They also occupy the next two slots in the spending rankings – Bristol Central and Brighton Pavilion – and the likelihood there is that they will win.

The next highest individual constituency spender is Reform, in Great Yarmouth – which the MRP predicts Reform will win.

But in Boston and Skegness, Reform’s next highest spend, the YouGov MRP poll has a Conservative win.

But look at the Labour spend in general. As discussed, it is the biggest and most geographically widespread. And compare it to the MRP and you can see why: lots of constituencies are red, but lighter shades.

They’re toss ups or marginal calls, with only the tiniest of margins between the parties. Hence why Labour is spending so big and in so many places.

Who Targets Me continually updates the map: Click here to view.

Mr Jeffers says that “it will be a fascinating tool for the final two weeks of the campaign, showing the parties’ strategies in near real time, as they home in on the seats they hope to win or hold on 4 July.

What is an MRP poll?

You might come across the term MRP quite a lot in the coming weeks as we head towards the general election on 4 July.

An MRP poll – which stands for multilevel regression and post-stratification – is a type of poll that gets pundits excited because it draws from large amounts of data, including a large sample size and additional information like locations.

MRP polls first ask a large representative sample of people how they will vote. They then use that information of how different groups say they will vote combined with information about the sorts of people who live in different constituencies. This allows the pollster to estimate how people will vote in each constituency across the country – even when they may have surveyed just a few people, or even none, in some places.

This can then be broken down into smaller groups to see how voters in different areas say they plan to vote. Rather than making more generalised assumptions that everyone behaves the same way in different constituencies, it takes into account the fact that every constituency is its own race and local issues and trends may be at play.

What MRP can’t do is account for very specific local factors – such as a hospital or large employer closing down in a constituency, or a scandal relating to a particular candidate.

It still involves a lot of assumptions and estimates – and some races are too close to call with any level of certainty. It also only gives a snapshot of people’s opinions, and a lot can change over the course of an election campaign. However, it does give us a more nuanced idea about what the general election result could be than other more generic polls.

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The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

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Police appeal to trace further 18 people linked to disorder at Unite the Kingdom march

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Police appeal to trace further 18 people linked to disorder at Unite the Kingdom march

Police have appealed for help to identify an additional 18 people suspected of public order offences and assaults on emergency workers on the day of the Unite the Kingdom march.

Between 110,000 and 150,000 people attended the rally in central London on 13 September, the Metropolitan Police estimates.

Protesters heard a number of speeches, including from far-right activist Tommy Robinson, who organised the rally and called it the “biggest freedom of speech” event in British history.

Pics: Met Police
Image:
Pics: Met Police

An anti-racism counter-protest, attended by about 5,000 campaigners, also took place, with the two groups clashing on Whitehall and Trafalgar Square, separated by lines of police.

Police previously said 24 people were arrested at the protests, 23 of whom are believed to have been involved in the Unite the Kingdom rally, while one was believed to be involved in the counter-protest.

The force launched an appeal to identify 11 people last week, one of whom was identified.

Officers now want to speak to a further 18 people “in connection with a range of public order offences and assaults on emergency workers” and have released 16 new images.

Pics: Met Police
Image:
Pics: Met Police

The Met previously said 26 officers were assaulted with kicks and punches, adding: “Bottles, flares and other projectiles were also thrown and concerted attempts were made to get past barriers.”

“Our post-event investigation continues and officers have looked through hundreds of hours of CCTV footage to review evidence to help with further inquiries,” said Detective Chief Inspector Natalie Norris.

“We have 28 people we want to speak to in connection with a range of offences – and we are again appealing for the public’s help to track them down.”

Read more from Sky News:
UK to push peace plan at UN summit
Gatwick second runway given green light

People may have travelled from outside London, so she said she was asking people “across the country” to look at a number of pictures that have been released and to get in touch if they recognise anyone.

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UK to push peace plan at UN summit after recognising Palestinian state – but Netanyahu says Palestine ‘will not happen’

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UK to push peace plan at UN summit after recognising Palestinian state - but Netanyahu says Palestine 'will not happen'

The UK is set to push for a peace plan for the Middle East at the UN General Assembly after recognising the state of Palestine.

Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper is expected to use the summit to address civilian suffering in war-torn Gaza and aim to strengthen “the international consensus on our pathway for peace in the Middle East”.

She will hold bilateral meetings to advance elements of the peace plan, including security measures to ensure Hamas has no role in the future governance of Gaza, according to the Foreign Office.

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, who won’t attend the summit, announced on Sunday that the UK recognises Palestine as an independent state, to “revive the hope of peace for the Palestinians and Israelis, and a two-state solution”.

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‘Ordinary people deserve to live in peace’

It is a significant moment in the history of Britain’s involvement in the region, and comes as the number of people killed during the Gaza conflict continues to rise and conditions for the people trapped become even more desperate.

Australia, Canada and Portugal made similar announcements, with France expected to follow suit at the UN on Monday.

The move was met with fierce backlash by Israel, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu saying it was “absurd” and a “huge reward to terrorism”. He also vowed that a Palestinian state “will not happen”.

More on War In Gaza

Read more: What recognising a Palestinian state actually means

Flags of Palestine and Israel are projected onto the Eiffel Tower. Pic: AP/Christophe Ena
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Flags of Palestine and Israel are projected onto the Eiffel Tower. Pic: AP/Christophe Ena

Separately, an Israeli official said the “full or partial annexation of the West Bank” is now “an option under consideration in response” to the move.

US President Donald Trump also addressed the coordinated recognition of the state of Palestine by the UK, Australia, Canada and Portugal, saying “I’m not in that camp” because recognising a Palestinian state was “rewarding Hamas”.

The families of hostages held in Gaza called it a “betrayal of humanity and a move that rewards Hamas while 48 hostages remain in captivity”.

A tent camp for displaced Palestinians stretches along the Muwasi, in southern Gaza. Pic: AP/Jehad Alshrafi
Image:
A tent camp for displaced Palestinians stretches along the Muwasi, in southern Gaza. Pic: AP/Jehad Alshrafi

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas said the recognition of the state of Palestine would allow it to “live side by side with the State of Israel in security, peace, and good neighbourliness”.

Senior Hamas official Mahmoud Mardawi reportedly celebrated the move as a victory for “the justice of our cause”.

But Sir Keir was clear to emphasise that recognition of Palestine was “not a reward for Hamas”, saying the terror group “can have no future, no role in government, no role in security” in a future state and confirming plans to ratchet up sanctions on Hamas “in the coming weeks”.

“Our call for a genuine two-state solution is the exact opposite of their hateful vision,” he added.

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Gazans react after Starmer recognises Palestinian statehood

The prime minister also repeated his criticism of Israel, which for nearly two years has waged war on the densely populated Gaza Strip.

“The Israeli government’s relentless and increasing bombardment of Gaza, the offensive of recent weeks, the starvation and devastation are utterly intolerable,” he said.

Read more from Sky News:
Why Palestine move matters in the Middle East
Palestinian minister hails ‘courageous step’
Gaza City doctors say hospital at breaking point

Destroyed buildings in Gaza, as seen from Israeli side of the border. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Destroyed buildings in Gaza, as seen from Israeli side of the border. Pic: Reuters

The number of people killed in Gaza since the IDF launched its offensive following the 7 October attacks has now risen above 65,000, according to Hamas-run health authorities.

“This death and destruction horrifies all of us. It must end,” Sir Keir said.

An updated map of Israel and Palestine on the Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office website
Image:
An updated map of Israel and Palestine on the Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office website

In recognising Palestine as a state, the UK does so based on 1967 borders to be finalised as part of future negotiations. It would be led by a “reformed Palestinian Authority”.

The UK also acknowledges “all legal rights and obligations of statehood” for Palestine.

An updated map on the UK’s Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office website now has the West Bank and Gaza labelled as ‘Palestine’ rather than the ‘Occupied Palestinian Territories’. This change has been rolled out across the website.

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UK officially recognises Palestine as a state

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UK officially recognises Palestine as a state

Sir Keir Starmer has announced the UK has officially recognised Palestine as a state.

“Today, to revive the hope of peace for the Palestinians and Israelis, and a two state solution, the United Kingdom formally recognises the State of Palestine,” the prime minister said on X, alongside a longer video statement.

“In the face of the growing horror in the Middle East, we are acting to keep alive the possibility of peace and a two-state solution.

“That means a safe and secure Israel alongside a viable Palestinian state. At the moment, we have neither.”

Follow latest: Palestine recognised as a state by three countries

Canada and Australia also officially recognised Palestinian statehood on Sunday, ahead of a conference of the UN General Assembly in New York this week.

It is a significant moment in the history of Britain’s involvement in the region, and comes as the death toll from the Israeli war on Gaza continues to rise and conditions for the people trapped become even more desperate.

An updated map of the region the Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office website
Image:
An updated map of the region the Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office website

Sir Keir said in July that the government would recognise Palestine unless Israel met certain conditions, including agreeing to a ceasefire and allowing the UN to restart the supply of aid.

In recognising Palestine as a state, the UK does so based on 1967 borders to be finalised as part of future negotiations. It would be led by a “reformed Palestinian Authority”.

The UK also acknowledges “all legal rights and obligations of statehood” for Palestine.

An updated map on the UK’s Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office website now has the West Bank and Gaza labelled as ‘Palestine’ rather than the ‘Occupied Palestinian Territories’. This change has been rolled out across the website.

Protesters in Tel Aviv calling for the release of hostages. Pic: AP
Image:
Protesters in Tel Aviv calling for the release of hostages. Pic: AP

Sir Keir calls on Hamas to release the hostages

The prime minister repeated his calls for the the Israeli hostages – held in captivity since the brutal attacks on Israel on 7 October, 2023 – to be released by Hamas.

“I have met British families of the hostages. I see the torture that they endure each and every day. Pain that strikes deep in people’s hearts across Israel and here in the United Kingdom.

“The hostages must be released immediately and we will keep fighting to bring them home.”

Sir Keir was also clear to emphasise that recognition of Palestine was “not a reward for Hamas”, saying that the terror group “can have no future, no role in government, no role in security” in a future state.

“I have directed work to sanction other Hamas figures in the coming weeks,” he added.

Read more:
Gaza City doctors say hospital at breaking point
Why Starmer’s move to recognise Palestine is a major shift

Huge amounts of Gaza have been razed to the ground. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Huge amounts of Gaza have been razed to the ground. Pic: Reuters


Starmer calls on Israel to end Gaza offensives

Sir Keir also repeated his criticism of Israel, which for nearly two years has waged a brutal war on the densely-populated Gaza Strip.

“The Israeli government’s relentless and increasing bombardment of Gaza, the offensive of recent weeks, the starvation and devastation are utterly intolerable.”

The death toll in Gaza since the IDF launched its offensive following the 7 October attacks has now risen above 65,000 people, according to Hamas-run health authorities.

“This death and destruction horrifies all of us. It must end,” he said.

A pro-Palestinian march in London earlier this year. Pic: PA
Image:
A pro-Palestinian march in London earlier this year. Pic: PA

British people ‘desperately want to see’ peace

Sir Keir also said: “Ordinary people, Israeli and Palestinian, deserve to live in peace. To try to rebuild their lives free from violence and suffering.

“That’s what the British people desperately want to see.”

But he warned that the possibility of a Palestinian state was in danger of vanishing forever.

“With the actions of Hamas, the Israeli government escalating the conflict, and settlement building being accelerated in the West Bank, the hope of a two-state solution is fading, but we cannot let that light go out.

“That is why we are building consensus with leaders in the region and beyond, around our framework for peace.”

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What changed in UK’s Gaza policy?

Sir Keir said this is a “practical plan” to bring people together behind a “common vision” that moves from a ceasefire in Gaza to negotiations on a two-state solution.

“We will keep driving this forward,” he pledged.

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