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If you want a good idea of what matters to each party – its deepest desires, its darkest fears – look at where it’s spending money. 

What it shows is a story of Labour spending big and spending everywhere, as it pursues a plausible supermajority, while the Conservatives retreat to fight for some of their heartland constituencies, and spend much less.

It shows the current state of play for all parties across the country. The map shows which is the biggest spender in each constituency – which parts of the country they’re fighting to win, or not to lose.

The map was created by Who Targets Me (WTM), which tracks digital political advertising and has partnered with Sky News as part of our online campaign team.

“Our map of advertising activity shows where the parties have targeted their Facebook and Instagram ads in the last week,” Sam Jeffers, executive director of WTM, says.

“In the same way careful observers track the seats party leaders visit during the campaign, the list of pages that are buying ads in each seat, helps to show whether parties think they can win there.”

We can break the map down for each party too.

You can see the Lib Dems spending big on the ‘”A30 corridor in the South West”, going for Conservative seats.

Both the Conservatives and the Greens are in a big spending battle in South Wales and the West Country.

Reform is targeting constituencies around southern Lincolnshire. And we can understand why parties are spending where they are if we compare to the predicted results from the latest YouGov MRP poll for Sky News.

We can show you how the digital war has been fought over the last few weeks – the ebb and the flow, if there has been one, between Labour and Conservative.

Labour first. They have spent by far the most this election: more than £2.7m since the start.

This is how their online campaign has spread geographically over the past six weeks.

“The map shows the scale of Labour’s ambition, with them running ads across large swathes of the country, and outcompeting both the Conservatives and Reform in England and Wales, as well as the SNP across the central belt of Scotland,” says Mr Jeffers.

Compare that to the Conservatives, who have spent only just over £1m on Meta and Google ads. And it has been dwindling: as the days go by, they’re spending less money than their competitors in big swathes of the country.

Back to the big picture. Comparing the digital spend map to the latest YouGov MRP poll for Sky News reveals some interesting battlegrounds.

The Greens spent the most of any party in any constituency up to 17 June but the MRP suggests this will be a likely Conservative hold – with the Greens coming in second. They also occupy the next two slots in the spending rankings – Bristol Central and Brighton Pavilion – and the likelihood there is that they will win.

The next highest individual constituency spender is Reform, in Great Yarmouth – which the MRP predicts Reform will win.

But in Boston and Skegness, Reform’s next highest spend, the YouGov MRP poll has a Conservative win.

But look at the Labour spend in general. As discussed, it is the biggest and most geographically widespread. And compare it to the MRP and you can see why: lots of constituencies are red, but lighter shades.

They’re toss ups or marginal calls, with only the tiniest of margins between the parties. Hence why Labour is spending so big and in so many places.

Who Targets Me continually updates the map: Click here to view.

Mr Jeffers says that “it will be a fascinating tool for the final two weeks of the campaign, showing the parties’ strategies in near real time, as they home in on the seats they hope to win or hold on 4 July.

What is an MRP poll?

You might come across the term MRP quite a lot in the coming weeks as we head towards the general election on 4 July.

An MRP poll – which stands for multilevel regression and post-stratification – is a type of poll that gets pundits excited because it draws from large amounts of data, including a large sample size and additional information like locations.

MRP polls first ask a large representative sample of people how they will vote. They then use that information of how different groups say they will vote combined with information about the sorts of people who live in different constituencies. This allows the pollster to estimate how people will vote in each constituency across the country – even when they may have surveyed just a few people, or even none, in some places.

This can then be broken down into smaller groups to see how voters in different areas say they plan to vote. Rather than making more generalised assumptions that everyone behaves the same way in different constituencies, it takes into account the fact that every constituency is its own race and local issues and trends may be at play.

What MRP can’t do is account for very specific local factors – such as a hospital or large employer closing down in a constituency, or a scandal relating to a particular candidate.

It still involves a lot of assumptions and estimates – and some races are too close to call with any level of certainty. It also only gives a snapshot of people’s opinions, and a lot can change over the course of an election campaign. However, it does give us a more nuanced idea about what the general election result could be than other more generic polls.

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The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

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One of two prisoners mistakenly released hands himself in

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One of two prisoners mistakenly released hands himself in

One of the two prisoners mistakenly freed from HMP Wandsworth has handed himself in.

William “Billy” Smith, 35, was wrongly freed from the prison earlier this week but, after a three-day manhunt, Surrey Police have confirmed he handed himself in on Thursday.

Meanwhile, the search for sex offender Brahim Kaddour-Cherif continues. He was also mistakenly released from HMP Wandsworth on 29 October.

Smith was sentenced to 45 months for multiple fraud offences at Croydon Crown Court on Monday, but was mistakenly released later the same day.

Sky News understands that his release came about because of a court error, telling the prison his custodial sentence was a suspended one instead.

A correction was initially sent to the wrong person, and by the time it got to the right place, he had left.

Surrey Police said: “We are cancelling our appeal to help find wanted 35-year-old William Smith who was released in error from HMP Wandsworth on Monday, November 3. Smith handed himself in to HMP Wandsworth today.”

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Smith seen waving and smiling

He was filmed returning to the prison by ITV News. Footage showed Smith waving and smiling as he approached the prison’s entrance, where he then spoke to staff.

Justice Secretary David Lammy, who came under fire while standing in for Sir Keir Starmer at PMQs, posted a response on X: “William Smith is back in custody. The spike in mistaken releases is unacceptable.

“We’re modernising prison systems – replacing paper with digital tools to cut errors. We’re working with police to recapture Brahim Kaddour-Cherif.”

Police are still looking for Brahim Kaddour-Cherif, who was also released in error. Pic: Met Police
Image:
Police are still looking for Brahim Kaddour-Cherif, who was also released in error. Pic: Met Police


Footage capturing Kaddour-Cherif during his arrest on 9 September. Pic: Met Police
Image:
Footage capturing Kaddour-Cherif during his arrest on 9 September. Pic: Met Police

Justice minister Alex Davies-Jones said prison chiefs were being summoned for a meeting on Thursday and a team of digital experts had been tasked with overhauling the “archaic” paper-based system of prisoner records.

The Prison Governors’ Association (PGA) described releases in error as “neither rare nor hidden”, but said the scale of them was “deeply concerning”.

In total, 262 prisoners were released in error in the year leading up to March 2025.

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Ex-prisoner tells Sky News ‘it’s mental in there’

Hunt for second prisoner

The Metropolitan Police has continued to appeal to the public over the whereabouts of Kaddour-Cherif, 24, who the force believes is still in London just over a week after his release.

“He is believed to be in London and has links to Tower Hamlets and Westminster. If you see him, please call 999 immediately,” the Met said on social media.

Read more from Sky News:
Nearly 40,000 freed early to tackle overcrowding
How many prisoners are released by mistake?

The Algerian national was in the process of being deported after he overstayed his visa. It is understood he is not an asylum seeker.

He was serving a sentence at Wandsworth for trespass with intent to steal, but had previously also been convicted for indecent exposure.

His release came just five days after the high-profile release of migrant sex offender Hadush Kebatu from HMP Chelmsford in Essex.

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Man who killed ‘Good Samaritan’ after ploughing into him with car during wedding brawl jailed

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Man who killed 'Good Samaritan' after ploughing into him with car during wedding brawl jailed

A man who murdered a “Good Samaritan” by driving into the middle of a wedding brawl has been sentenced to 26 years in prison.

Hassan Jhangur has been jailed for murder after he ran into Chris Marriott, 46, in his car, leaving him trapped beneath.

Jhangur used his Seat Ibiza as a weapon after a fight between two families at his sister’s wedding reception on 27 December 2023.

He first drove into Riasat Khan, the father of Hasan Khan – the man who had just married Jhangur’s sister following a row between the families.

The impact threw him over the bonnet, then he crashed into a group of four people that included Mr Marriott.

Mr Marriott had stopped to help one of Jhangur’s sisters, who was lying in the road unconscious in the Burngreave area of Sheffield.

Off-duty midwife Alison Norris and Jhangur’s mother and sister were also injured, Sheffield Crown Court was told in July.

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Chris Marriott, pictured with partner Bryony, was killed by Hassan Jhangur.

Jhangur, 25, then got out of the car and stabbed his new brother-in-law Hasan several times in the head and chest.

The court heard Jhangur later told police: “That’s why you don’t mess with the Jhangurs.”

In July, he was found guilty of murdering Mr Marriott a year after another set of jurors failed to reach a verdict.

Jhangur was also found guilty of wounding his brother-in-law with intent but cleared of his attempted murder.

He was further convicted of four charges of GBH with intent, relating to Alison Norris, Ambreen Jhangur, Nafeesa Jhangur and Riasat Khan.

Today, the judge told him: “This was a deliberate and senseless act of hot-headed and wanton violence resulting in the tragic death of Chris Marriott and life-changing consequences for many others.”

Jhangur’s father, Mohammed Jhangur, 57, of Whiteways Road, Sheffield, was found guilty of perverting the course of justice after he concealed a knife.

Mr Marriott’s widow, Bryony Marriott, wiped away tears as she read a personal statement to the court about the father-of-two.

Mohammed Jhangur. Pic: South Yorkshire Police
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Mohammed Jhangur. Pic: South Yorkshire Police

‘He had a compassionate heart and loved helping’

She said: “Chris was genuine, kind and loving. He was reliable, trustworthy, affectionate and gentle.”

Mrs Marriott added: “Chris was someone people felt comfortable and safe with, and was great at being a friend.

“Chris was a man of faith, and his love for God and for people shone through in what he devoted his time to.

“He had a compassionate heart and loved helping, supporting and empowering others.”

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Expensive, noisy and delayed – but is the Army’s new fighting vehicle any good?

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Expensive, noisy and delayed - but is the Army's new fighting vehicle any good?

Expensive, noisy and eight years late, but the British Army finally has a new armoured fighting vehicle that troops could deploy to Ukraine in the event of any peace deal.

The nearly £10m Ajax – weighing more than 40 tonnes – is as heavy as a Russian tank and potentially vulnerable to cheap Russian drones.

Yet it is being billed by the UK as a “next generation” fighting machine, equipped with cameras, protective armour and a 40mm gun, with bullets that can rip through concrete.

Luke Pollard, the defence procurement minister, talked up the fleet’s potential while acknowledging that the £5.5bn procurement has had its issues.

This includes excessive noise and vibrations coming from the vehicles that left 17 soldiers requiring treatment for hearing loss.

“It is an incredible platform. It has got the ability to perform tasks that its predecessors could not,” the minister said, having just gone for a spin in an Ajax during a visit to a General Dynamics factory in Merthyr Tydfil, South Wales, where the vehicles are being assembled.

“After all the problems it may have had in the past, we have put those to bed now.”

Luke Pollard says issues with the Ajax have been 'put to bed'
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Luke Pollard says issues with the Ajax have been ‘put to bed’

The Ministry of Defence on Thursday declared what is known as initial operating capability for Ajax has been met.

It defined this as the ability to deploy a squadron of 27 vehicles on operations from a pool of 50. The total number of delivered Ajax vehicles is 165.

They come in six variants, with the main type designed for reconnaissance and fighting.

The army has ordered a total of 589 of the various models, which it expects to receive by 2030.

It marks the first new armoured fighting vehicle to enter service in almost 30 years and is replacing ageing gear that dates back to the 1970s.

The Ajax was demonstrated during this year's British Army Expo. Pic: PA
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The Ajax was demonstrated during this year’s British Army Expo. Pic: PA

Launched more than a decade and a half ago, the Ajax programme was meant to achieve its initial operating milestone in 2017, but this date has been repeatedly pushed back.

The most serious delay occurred when testing was paused after soldiers suffered hearing and other injuries because of loud noise and vibrations coming from the vehicles.

It is why anyone who uses Ajax today must wear specially secured hearing protection.

Pic: Ministry of Defence
Image:
Pic: Ministry of Defence

So, what’s it like?

Sky News was among a group of journalists that were invited to ride around on one of the vehicles at a test track on the factory grounds.

The vehicle is very loud – though soldiers said this would not impact its ability to conduct its primary mission of reconnaissance.

They said Ajax is fitted with clever cameras and sensors that can spot a target up to five miles (eight kilometres) away.

However, there is clearly the potential for enemy drones to detect the Ajax in return if it were pushing towards enemy territory in a warzone like Ukraine.

The vehicle’s armour is designed to protect against such a threat. But officials said the fleet has yet to be fitted with electronic countermeasures, even though this kind of equipment is fundamental for any operation in Ukraine to help jam enemy drones.

Pic: Ministry of Defence
Image:
Pic: Ministry of Defence

When could it be deployed to Ukraine?

The UK, France and a coalition of more than 30 allies have pledged to deploy to Ukraine to help secure the peace if Kyiv and Moscow agree to some kind of ceasefire – a goal Donald Trump has been trying to achieve, but one that seems vanishingly unlikely for now.

However, Mr Pollard signalled that Ajax could be in the mix of any British offering to the mission.

“We’re not yet setting out precisely what capabilities we would deploy to Ukraine in the event of peace, largely because we don’t know when that peace will come, and we keep our military units at a state of readiness, and we rotate through them,” he told Sky News.

“But when we have the ability to deploy incredibly capable platforms like Ajax and the brilliant men and women trained to use it to its fullest effect.

“There’s a clear opportunity for us to be able to enhance NATO’s capabilities on the eastern flank and any coalition of the willing deployment potentially in the future.”

Read more from Deborah Haynes:
Damning report into UK’s fast jets programme

UK military to be given powers to shoot down drones

Lance Corporal of Horse Andrew Rawlinson says his squadron are 'all good to go' with the Ajax
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Lance Corporal of Horse Andrew Rawlinson says his squadron are ‘all good to go’ with the Ajax

Lance Corporal of Horse Andrew Rawlinson, 32, of the Household Cavalry Regiment, who is an Ajax commander, said he would be happy to deploy to Ukraine if asked.

“The squadron that I work in, they’re all good to go,” he said.

“We’ve been training on it now non-stop pretty much for a good two years to get to the IOC [initial operating capability] level and I think everyone’s content, knows their jobs and would be happy to roll out.”

Asked whether Russia should be worried, he said: “Yeah, sure.”

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