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If you want a good idea of what matters to each party – its deepest desires, its darkest fears – look at where it’s spending money. 

What it shows is a story of Labour spending big and spending everywhere, as it pursues a plausible supermajority, while the Conservatives retreat to fight for some of their heartland constituencies, and spend much less.

It shows the current state of play for all parties across the country. The map shows which is the biggest spender in each constituency – which parts of the country they’re fighting to win, or not to lose.

The map was created by Who Targets Me (WTM), which tracks digital political advertising and has partnered with Sky News as part of our online campaign team.

“Our map of advertising activity shows where the parties have targeted their Facebook and Instagram ads in the last week,” Sam Jeffers, executive director of WTM, says.

“In the same way careful observers track the seats party leaders visit during the campaign, the list of pages that are buying ads in each seat, helps to show whether parties think they can win there.”

We can break the map down for each party too.

You can see the Lib Dems spending big on the ‘”A30 corridor in the South West”, going for Conservative seats.

Both the Conservatives and the Greens are in a big spending battle in South Wales and the West Country.

Reform is targeting constituencies around southern Lincolnshire. And we can understand why parties are spending where they are if we compare to the predicted results from the latest YouGov MRP poll for Sky News.

We can show you how the digital war has been fought over the last few weeks – the ebb and the flow, if there has been one, between Labour and Conservative.

Labour first. They have spent by far the most this election: more than £2.7m since the start.

This is how their online campaign has spread geographically over the past six weeks.

“The map shows the scale of Labour’s ambition, with them running ads across large swathes of the country, and outcompeting both the Conservatives and Reform in England and Wales, as well as the SNP across the central belt of Scotland,” says Mr Jeffers.

Compare that to the Conservatives, who have spent only just over £1m on Meta and Google ads. And it has been dwindling: as the days go by, they’re spending less money than their competitors in big swathes of the country.

Back to the big picture. Comparing the digital spend map to the latest YouGov MRP poll for Sky News reveals some interesting battlegrounds.

The Greens spent the most of any party in any constituency up to 17 June but the MRP suggests this will be a likely Conservative hold – with the Greens coming in second. They also occupy the next two slots in the spending rankings – Bristol Central and Brighton Pavilion – and the likelihood there is that they will win.

The next highest individual constituency spender is Reform, in Great Yarmouth – which the MRP predicts Reform will win.

But in Boston and Skegness, Reform’s next highest spend, the YouGov MRP poll has a Conservative win.

But look at the Labour spend in general. As discussed, it is the biggest and most geographically widespread. And compare it to the MRP and you can see why: lots of constituencies are red, but lighter shades.

They’re toss ups or marginal calls, with only the tiniest of margins between the parties. Hence why Labour is spending so big and in so many places.

Who Targets Me continually updates the map: Click here to view.

Mr Jeffers says that “it will be a fascinating tool for the final two weeks of the campaign, showing the parties’ strategies in near real time, as they home in on the seats they hope to win or hold on 4 July.

What is an MRP poll?

You might come across the term MRP quite a lot in the coming weeks as we head towards the general election on 4 July.

An MRP poll – which stands for multilevel regression and post-stratification – is a type of poll that gets pundits excited because it draws from large amounts of data, including a large sample size and additional information like locations.

MRP polls first ask a large representative sample of people how they will vote. They then use that information of how different groups say they will vote combined with information about the sorts of people who live in different constituencies. This allows the pollster to estimate how people will vote in each constituency across the country – even when they may have surveyed just a few people, or even none, in some places.

This can then be broken down into smaller groups to see how voters in different areas say they plan to vote. Rather than making more generalised assumptions that everyone behaves the same way in different constituencies, it takes into account the fact that every constituency is its own race and local issues and trends may be at play.

What MRP can’t do is account for very specific local factors – such as a hospital or large employer closing down in a constituency, or a scandal relating to a particular candidate.

It still involves a lot of assumptions and estimates – and some races are too close to call with any level of certainty. It also only gives a snapshot of people’s opinions, and a lot can change over the course of an election campaign. However, it does give us a more nuanced idea about what the general election result could be than other more generic polls.

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The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

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Eight men arrested after attempted murder of couple in their 60s in Newcastle

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Eight men arrested after attempted murder of couple in their 60s in Newcastle

Eight men have been arrested in connection with the attempted murder of a couple in Newcastle, police have said.

A man and a woman in their 60s were found with serious injuries inside a property in Durham Street in the city’s Elswick area at around 6.45pm on Friday.

The woman sustained serious head injuries and remains in hospital in a critical condition, while the man is in a stable condition.

A man in his 30s was initially arrested on suspicion of attempted murder, Northumbria Police said on Saturday, before announcing seven further arrests on Sunday. All eight men remain in custody.

Five of the men – two in their 20s, two in their 30s, and one in his 40s – have been arrested on suspicion of attempted murder.

A man in his 50s has been arrested on suspicion of conspiracy to murder, while two other men – one in his 40s and one in his 60s – have been arrested on suspicion of assisting an offender.

Detective Chief Inspector Mark Atherton, the senior investigating officer in the case, said: “Eight suspects are now in custody being questioned, and I would like to reassure our communities extensive inquiries into this serious incident have already been carried out.”

Police are urging anyone with information to come forward and have issued an appeal for people who saw a red Renault Twingo car, which was allegedly stolen.

The vehicle is believed to have been parked in the West End of Newcastle between 6.30pm and 8pm on Friday before being found in the Longbenton area on Saturday morning.

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“We would like to thank everyone who has already come forward and as part of our investigation we are keen to hear from anyone who may have seen the Renault Twingo,” DCI Atherton said.

“Any information – no matter how insignificant it may seem – could prove vital to establishing exactly what happened that evening.”

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David Cameron reveals he has been treated for prostate cancer

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David Cameron reveals he has been treated for prostate cancer

Former prime minister Lord Cameron has revealed he has been treated for prostate cancer.

The former Tory leader, who was PM from 2010 until 2016, and foreign secretary from November 2023 until last year’s general election, went public in an interview with The Times.

The 59-year-old joins Olympic cycling champion Sir Chris Hoy, ex-Sky News presenter Dermot Murnaghan and another former PM, Rishi Sunak, in campaigning for better diagnosis and treatment.

He has now had the all clear and is cancer-free.

Lord Cameron went to the GP for a prostate-specific antigen (PSA) test – which looks for proteins associated with prostate cancer – after his wife Samantha urged him to make an appointment. His result showed his numbers were worryingly high.

Recalling the moment when, after a follow-up biopsy, he was told he had cancer, Lord Cameron said: “You always dread hearing those words.

“And then literally as they’re coming out of the doctor’s mouth you’re thinking, ‘Oh, no, he’s going to say it. He’s going to say it. Oh God, he said it’. Then came the next decision. Do you get treatment? Or do you watch and wait?”

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Lord Cameron with his wife Samantha in May. Pic: PA
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Lord Cameron with his wife Samantha in May. Pic: PA

Lord Cameron said his older brother Alexander died of pancreatic cancer at the same age he is now. “It focuses the mind,” he said. “I decided quite quickly. I wanted to move ahead and that’s what I did.”

The former prime minister opted to have focal therapy, a treatment which delivers electric pulses via needles to destroy the cancerous cells.

He was given a post-treatment MRI scan around the time the US struck a nuclear plant in Iran last year. “It was the same week as Donald Trump was talking about the bomb damage assessment… I got my own bomb damage assessment,” he quipped.

Explaining why he has shared his diagnosis, Lord Cameron said: “I’ve got a platform. This is something we’ve really got to think about, talk about, and if necessary, act on.

“I want to, as it were, come out. I want to add my name to the long list of people calling for a targeted screening programme.”

What is prostate cancer?

Prostate cancer is the most common cancer affecting men.

Around 55,000 men are diagnosed with the disease in the UK every year.

It usually develops slowly over many years.

Cancer cells begin to grow in the prostate, the small gland found just below the bladder.

What are the symptoms?

Symptoms do not usually appear until the prostate is large enough to affect the urethra, which is the tube carrying urine from the bladder.

The most common ones are needing to urinate more often and straining to pee.

Men may also feel as though their bladder has not fully emptied.

These symptoms are common and do not always mean somebody has cancer, but they should be checked out by a GP.

File pic: AP
Image:
File pic: AP

Lord Cameron is backing a call by the charity Prostate Cancer Research for the introduction of screening for men at high risk of the disease.

“I don’t particularly like discussing my personal intimate health issues, but I feel I ought to,” he continued. “Let’s be honest. Men are not very good at talking about their health. We tend to put things off.

“We’re embarrassed to talk about something like the prostate, because it’s so intricately connected with sexual health and everything else. I sort of thought, well, this has happened to you, and you should lend your voice to it.

“I would feel bad if I didn’t come forward and say that I’ve had this experience. I had a scan. It helped me discover something that was wrong. It gave me the chance to deal with it.”

Approximately 12,000 men in the UK die from prostate cancer every year, making it the country’s biggest male cancer.

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An ongoing trial is looking at how healthcare professionals could use PSA tests with other assessments to improve screening.

Lord Cameron’s interview comes ahead of a meeting on Thursday, which could see the National Screening Committee give the green light for the first NHS screening programme for prostate cancer.

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Upcoming budget will be big – and Starmer has some serious convincing to do as he fights for survival

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Upcoming budget will be big - and Starmer has some serious convincing to do as he fights for survival

Wednesday’s budget is going to big.

It will be big in terms of tax rises, big in terms of setting the course of the economy and public services, and big in terms of political jeopardy for this government.

The chancellor has a lot different groups to try to assuage and a lot at stake.

“There are lots of difference audiences to this budget,” says one senior Labour figure. “The markets will be watching, the public on the cost of living, the party on child poverty and business will want to like the direction in which we are travelling – from what I’ve seen so far, it’s a pretty good package.”

The three core principles underpinning the chancellor’s decisions will be to cut NHS waiting lists, cut national debt and cut the cost of living. There will be no return to austerity and no more increases in government borrowing.

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What flows from that is more investment in the NHS, already the big winner in the 2024 Budget, and tax rises to keep funding public services and help plug gaps in the government’s finances.

More on Budget 2025

Some of these gaps are beyond Rachel Reeves’ control, such as the decision by the independent fiscal watchdog (the Office for Budget Responsibility) to downgrade the UK’s productivity forecasts – leaving the chancellor with a £20bn gap in the public finances – or the effect of Donald Trump’s tariffs on the global economy.

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Will PM keep his word on taxes?

Others are self-inflicted, with the chancellor having to find about £7bn to plug her reversals on winter fuel allowance and welfare cuts.

By not pulling the borrowing lever, she hopes to send a message to the markets about stability, and that should help keep down inflation and borrowing costs low, which in turn helps with the cost of living, because inflation and interest rates feed into what we pay for food, for energy, rent and mortgage costs.

That’s what the government is trying to do, but what about the reality when this budget hits?

This is going to be another big Labour budget, where people will be taxed more and the government will spend more.

Only a year ago the chancellor raised a whopping £40bn in taxes and said she wasn’t coming back for more. Now she’s looking to raise more than £30bn.

That the prime minister refused to recommit to his manifesto promise not to raise income tax, VAT or national insurance on working at the G20 in South Africa days ahead of the budget is instructive: this week we could see the government announce manifesto-breaking tax rises that will leave millions paying more.

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Starmer’s G20 visit overshadowed by Ukraine and budget

Freeze to income thresholds expected

The biggest tax lever, raising income tax rates, was going to be pulled but has now been put back in neutral after the official forecasts came in slightly better than expected, and Downing Street thought again about being the first government in 50 years to raise the income tax rate.

On the one hand, this measure would have been a very clean and clear way of raising £20bn of tax. On the other, there was a view from some in government that the PM and his chancellor would never recover from such a clear breach of trust, with a fair few MPs comparing it to the tuition fees U-turn that torpedoed Nick Clegg’s Lib Dems in the 2015 General Election.

Instead, the biggest revenue in the budget will be another two-year freeze on income tax thresholds until 2030.

This is the very thing that Reeves promised she would not do at the last budget in 2024 because “freezing the thresholds will hurt working people” and “take more money out of their payslips”. This week those words will come back to haunt the chancellor.

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Will this budget help lower your energy bills?

Two-child cap big headline grabber

There will also be more spending and the biggest headline grabber will be the decision to lift the two-child benefit cap.

This was something the PM refused to commit to in the Labour manifesto, because it was one of the things he said he couldn’t afford to do if he wanted to keep taxes low for working people.

But on Wednesday, the government will announce its spending £3bn-a-year to lift that cap. Labour MPs will like it, polling suggests the public will not.

What we are going to get on Wednesday is another big tax and spend Labour budget on top of the last.

For the Conservatives, it draws clear dividing lines to take Labour on. They will argue that this is the “same old Labour”, taxing more to spend more, and more with no cuts to public spending.

Having retreated on welfare savings in the summer, to then add more to the welfare bill by lifting the two-child cap is a gift for Labour’s opponents and they will hammer the party on the size of the benefits bill, where the cost of support people with long-term health conditions is set to rise from £65bn-a-year to a staggering £100bn by 2029-30.

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Why has chancellor U-turned on income tax rises?

Mansion tax on the cards

There is also a real risk of blow-up in this budget as the chancellor unveils a raft of revenue measures to find that £30bn.

There could be a mansion tax for those living in more expensive homes, a gambling tax, a tourism tax, a milkshake tax.

Ministers are fearful that one of these more modest revenue-raising measures becomes politically massive and blows up.

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This is what happened to George Osborne in 2012 when he announced plans to put 20% of VAT on hot food sold in bakeries and supermarkets. The plan quickly became an attack on the working man’s lunch from out-of-touch Tories and the “pasty tax” was ditched two months later.

And what about the voters? Big tax and spend budgets are the opposite of what Sir Keir Starmer promised the country when he was seeking election. His administration was not going to be another Labour tax and spend government but instead invest in infrastructure to turbocharge growth to help pay for better services and improve people’s everyday lives.

Seventeen months in, the government doesn’t seem to be doing things differently. A year ago, it embarked on the biggest tax-raising budget in a generation, and this week, it goes back on its word and lifts taxes for working people. It creates a big trust deficit.

Pic: PA
Image:
Pic: PA

Government attempts to tell a better story

There are those in Labour who will read this and point to worse-than-expected government finances, global headwinds and the productivity downgrades as reasons for tax raising.

But it is true too that economists had argued in the run-up to the election that Labour’s position on not cutting spending or raising taxes was unsustainable when you looked at the public finances. Labour took a gamble by saying tax rises were not needed before the election and another one when the chancellor said last year she was not coming back for more.

After a year-and-a-half of governing, the country isn’t feeling better off, the cost of living isn’t easing, the economy isn’t firing, the small boats haven’t been stopped, and the junior doctors are again on strike.

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Reeves vows to ‘grip the cost of living’

What tax rises could chancellor announce?

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Budget jargon explained

The PM told me at the G7 summit in Canada in June that one of his regrets of his first year wasn’t “we haven’t always told our story as well as we should”.

What you will hear this week is the government trying to better tell that story about what it has achieved to improve people’s lives – be that school breakfast clubs or extending free childcare, increasing the national living wage, giving millions of public sector workers above-inflation pay rises.

You will also hear more about the NHS, as the waiting lists for people in need of non-urgent care within 18 weeks remain stubbornly high. It stood at 7.6m in July 2024 and was at 7.4m at the end of September. The government will talk on Wednesday about how it intends to drive those waits down.

But there is another story from the last 18 months too: Labour said the last budget was a “once in a parliament” tax-raising moment, now it’s coming back for more. Labour said in the election it would protect working people and couldn’t afford to lift the two child-benefit cap, and this week could see both those promises broken.

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Can the Tories be blamed for the financial black hole?

Can PM convince his MPs?

Labour flip-flopped on winter fuel allowance and on benefit cuts, and is now raising your taxes.

Downing Street has been in a constant state of flux as the PM keeps changing his top team, the deputy prime minister had to resign for underpaying her tax, while the UK’s ambassador to the US, Peter Mandelson, was sacked over his ties to the Jeffrey Epstein, the late convicted paedophile. It doesn’t seem much like politics being done differently.

All of the above is why this budget is big. Because Wednesday is not just about the tax and spend measures, big as they may be. It is also about this government, this prime minister, this chancellor. Starmer said ahead of this budget that he was “optimistic” and “if we get this right, our country has a great future”.

But he has some serious convincing to do. Many of his own MPs and those millions of people who voted Labour in, have lost confidence in their ability to deliver, which is why the drumbeat of leadership change now bangs. Going into Wednesday, it’s difficult to imagine how this second tax-raising budget will lessen that noise around a leader and a Labour government that, at the moment, is fighting to survive.

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