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We’re now more than four weeks into the campaign and can see how the parties are faring in seats they have been targeting, for better or worse.

Watch this week’s journeys on our animated map below.

This campaign is being fought on new electoral boundaries, with many constituencies undergoing significant changes since 2019.

For the purpose of this analysis, we use notional results based on calculations by Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher, honorary professors at the University of Exeter, which estimate the 2019 election seat results if they had taken place on the new constituency boundaries.

Shying away?

It is safe to say the campaign is not going to plan for Rishi Sunak. When the prime minister made his surprise election call on 4 July the polls were not looking good for the Conservatives, but it was assumed the gap would narrow in the run-up to election day.

The reality has been different. The Conservatives are still 20 points behind, but both main parties have shed support to the Liberal Democrats and Reform – which is proving to be more of an issue for the Conservatives than for Labour.

Whereas last week we showed Sunak fighting a lonely battle, this week there were rumours of him backing away from campaigning altogether. He made just six visits this week, a figure which has been gradually declining as the campaign progresses.

Despite this slowdown in campaigning, Sunak maintains the overall largest tally of seats visited, at 41 since the start of the campaign compared to 31 for both Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer and Liberal Democrats leader Sir Ed Davey.

He was dealt another blow when the latest Sky/YouGov MRP poll was released on Wednesday evening.

Comparing this poll, conducted from 11-18 June, to the one fielded more than two weeks earlier from 24 May-1 June, it appears the Conservatives’ fortunes are worse now than the already dire state they were in when the election was announced; their projected seat tally has dropped from 140 to 108.

Are the visits helping?

We can compare the change in performance of parties between these two polls to assess whether things are improving or getting worse for the leaders in areas they have visited.

These projections are based on respondents’ voting intentions at the time the polls were conducted, with calls for who will win seats rated from lowest to most confident projections, as either: “tossup” (too close to call), “lean”, “likely” or “safe”.

For Sunak, 12 of the constituencies he’s been to since the start of the campaign are now in a worse position for the Conservatives than earlier in the election campaign.

Of course, this might not be directly because of the prime minister’s visit, and some trips were made after polling was completed, but it will do little to cheer the faltering campaign’s spirits.

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Lib Dem threat

A particular problem for the Conservatives is the potential efficiency of the Lib Dem vote in this election, picking up votes in just the right places to hurt the Tories.

On a projected national vote share of 11.6% – the same as their 2019 result – they are projected to win a massive 67 seats, more than six times the number they notionally won in 2019, and which would be the highest number since the formation of the Lib Dems in 1988. All of their potential gains outside of Scotland are at the expense of the Conservatives.

This can be seen in key Con v Lib Dem battlegrounds visited by Sunak: eight of those have moved in favour of the Lib Dems. Places like Wokingham, graced by Sunak in week two and Davey in week three, where the Conservatives have a 23.2% majority, are now leaning more towards the Lib Dems.

In 23 of the seats the prime minister has visited, there has been no projected change in fortunes. But 18 of those are ones his party is (still) on course to lose. This includes places like Devon North, which he visited on Tuesday, where a 13.3 point swing is needed for the Liberal Democrats to gain from the Conservatives – and they are expected to do so.

Tory gains

Things improved in four of Sunak’s previous stops, notably including his home turf visits in Yorkshire. His own constituency Richmond & Northallerton, that he’s visited twice, has been upgraded from “lean” Conservative hold to “likely” hold, and Thirsk & Malton has edged from “toss-up” – meaning it’s too close to call – to “lean” Tory hold.

Perhaps his focus on the area is paying dividends.

Labour’s decrease to a still healthy projected share of 39% means they’re doing worse in seven of the constituencies Starmer has visited. Derby South was downgraded from a “safe” hold to a “likely” hold, with an increase in Reform’s vote share between polls eating into Labour’s potential majority, and the “toss-up” of Finchley & Golders Green in London inching in the Conservatives’ favour.

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There has been no change to the predictions in 22 Starmer-visited seats, where Labour remain frontrunners to gain. All bar one – Inverclyde & Renfrewshire West, which they hope to take from the SNP – are currently held by the Conservatives.

Things got better for Labour in two seats visited by Starmer. Worthing East & Shoreham, which Starmer visited in the first week of the campaign, was upgraded from a “likely” to a “safe” gain from the Tories. Nuneaton in the West Midlands similarly went from “lean” to “likely” since he stopped by on 10 June, just before the second poll.

Meanwhile, Davey has the most glowing report card, with 18 of his 31 visited constituencies looking more favourable to the Lib Dems between polls.

This includes Carshalton & Wallington, a highly marginal constituency in London where the Lib Dems came second to Conservatives by just 1.3% in 2019 but are now projected to claim a “safe” win, up from a lower confidence level of “lean” in the previous MRP. Sunak visited the area early on in week one of the campaign while Davey visited this week.

Farage factor

The other big winners in vote share over the last few weeks have been Reform, following Nigel Farage’s explosive return as leader.

Reform’s increase in projected vote share to 15.4% would put them in third place nationally, above the Lib Dems. But while this certainly appears to be hurting the Tories in particular, it is less efficient at picking up seats for Reform, of which they are currently projected five.

Neither Sunak nor Starmer have visited any of the seats that Reform are now projected to gain. That includes Clacton, where it is now projected “likely” that Nigel Farage will overturn the 56.31% Conservative majority.

It would be the eighth time lucky for Farage if he does manage to convince voters in Clacton. Over 30 years he has stood in seven different parliamentary constituencies but thus far has failed to win.

Reform launched their not-a-manifesto on Monday from Merthyr Tydfil in South Wales; with Farage saying the location was chosen “because it shows everyone exactly what happens to a country when Labour is in charge”.

They placed third here in 2019 but are projected to overtake the Conservatives and finish second to Labour, according to our latest MRP poll.

Sunak also took a swipe at Welsh Labour when he was in Clwyd North to launch the Welsh Conservative manifesto on Friday, where he said it was a “great country, but a country let down by Labour”.

Battle for the South West

This week there has been an increased interest in the South West. Previously a Lib Dem enclave, especially in their 2005 heyday, they had lost all but one of their seats here by 2017 and Bath is the only remaining constituency they are defending.

The Lib Dems are looking to make serious headway here, reflected in the number of visits the area has received.

This week alone there have been six visits to the region – two by each of the three party leaders vying for seats here. Sunak was seen in Torridge & Tavistock where the Conservatives are expected to fight off the Liberal Democrats with their 41.9% Tory majority.

Starmer made a rare defensive visit to Labour’s Bristol North West on Monday, while Davey was in Yeovil where his party will need a 13.5 point swing to beat the Conservative candidate.

The prime minister has visited 16% of the seats in the South West, more than any of the other leaders have in any other region. Davey has been to 12% of the constituencies here and 11% of those in the South East, highlighting the Liberal Democrats’ southern targeting.

Looking to appeal to broader sections of the electorate, Starmer has been much more dispersed in his regional campaigning. His maximum is the 7% of seats he has visited in Greater London, closely followed by the 6% he has stopped by in Wales.

So far 31% of the constituencies in the South West have been visited by at least one of Sunak, Starmer and Davey. The North West is the least frequented in England, where they’ve been to 11% of seats. However the parties have been sending other representatives there, such as deputy Labour leader Angela Rayner, and Scotland has been targeted more by the Scottish versions of each party than by the national party leaders.


Dr Hannah Bunting is a Sky News elections analyst and co-director of The Elections Centre at the University of Exeter.


The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

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Crypto isn’t crashing the American dream; it’s renovating it

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Crypto isn’t crashing the American dream; it’s renovating it

Crypto isn’t crashing the American dream; it’s renovating it

The US housing regulator’s decision to recognize crypto assets in mortgage applications marks a historic shift from exclusion to integration, opening new pathways to homeownership.

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Govt vows to protect ‘pavement pints’ and make it easier for pubs to extend their opening hours

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Govt vows to protect 'pavement pints' and make it easier for pubs to extend their opening hours

“A wave of new cafes, bars, music venues and outdoor dining” could come to the UK – as the government unveils plans to overhaul planning rules and “breathe new life into the high street”.

Under the proposals, ministers also want to reform licensing rules to make it easier for disused shops to be converted into hospitality venues.

In a statement, Chancellor Rachel Reeves said she planned to scrap “clunky, outdated rules… to protect pavement pints, al fresco dining and street parties”.

The reforms also aim to prevent existing pubs, clubs, and music venues from suffering noise complaints when new properties hit the market.

Developers who decide to build near those sites will be required to soundproof their buildings.

Customers drink in an outdoor seating area of a pub in London during pandemic in December 2021
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As part of dedicated “hospitality zones”, permission for al fresco dining, street parties and extended opening hours will be fast-tracked.

The government says the reforms aim to modernise outdated planning and licensing rules as part of its Plan for Change, to help small businesses and improve local communities.

More on Hospitality

The rough plans will be subject to a “call for evidence” which could further shape policy.

Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds said the proposals will “put the buzz back into our town centres”.

“Red tape has stood in the way of people’s business ideas for too long. Today we’re slashing those barriers to giving small business owners the freedom to flourish,” he said.

The hospitality industry has broadly welcomed the changes but argued tax reform was also essential.

Kate Nicholls, chairwoman of UKHospitality, described the proposals as “positive and encouraging”.

However, she added: “They can’t on their own offset the immediate and mounting cost pressures facing hospitality businesses which threaten to tax out of existence the businesses and jobs that today’s announcement seeks to support.”

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While supporting the reforms, Emma McClarkin, chief executive of the British Beer and Pub Association (BBPA), had a similar message.

“These changes must go hand in hand with meaningful business rates reform, mitigating staggering employment costs, and a cut in beer duty so that pubs can thrive at the heart of the community,” she said.

In July, BBPA estimated that 378 pubs will shut this year across England, Wales and Scotland, compared with 350 closures in 2024, which it said would amount to more than 5,600 direct job losses.

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Pubs closing at a rate of one a day

Bar chain Brewdog announced this week that it would close 10 sites, partly blaming “rising costs, increased regulation, and economic pressures”.

Andrew Griffith MP, shadow business secretary, said: “Though any cutting of red tape for hospitality businesses is welcome, this is pure hypocrisy and inconsistency from Labour.”

He said the government was “crippling the hospitality industry by doubling business rates, imposing a jobs tax and a full-on strangulation of employment red tape”.

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Heathrow-funded group sending ‘incredibly misleading’ mail to homes across west London, campaigners allege

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Heathrow-funded group sending 'incredibly misleading' mail to homes across west London, campaigners allege

A campaign group for a third runway at Heathrow that gets funding from the airport has been distributing “incredibly misleading” information to households in west London, according to opponents of the expansion.

The group, called Back Heathrow, sent leaflets to people living near the airport, claiming expansion could be the route to a “greener” airport and suggesting it would mean only the “cleanest and quietest aircraft” fly there.

It comes as the airport prepares to submit its planning application for a third runway ahead of the 31 July deadline, following the government’s statement of support for the expansion.

File photo dated 4/1/2016 of an Emirates Airbus A380 plane lands over houses near Heathrow Airport, west London. Exposure to aircraft noise could increase the likelihood of suffering heart attacks, according to a study. Researchers at University College London (UCL) found people who live near airports - and are subjected to noise from planes taking off and landing - may be at greater risk of poor heart health. Issue date: Wednesday January 8, 2025.
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A plane lands over houses near Heathrow Airport. Pic: PA

Back Heathrow calls itself a “local campaign group of over 100,000 residents” and does not mention the funding it receives from the airport in the newsletter.

Its website also does not mention the current financial support and says it “initially launched with funding from Heathrow Airport but we have since grown”.

Back Heathrow also told Sky News it had “always been open” about the support it receives from the airport.

At the bottom of every web page, the organisation says: “Back Heathrow is a group of residents, businesses and community groups who have come together to defend the jobs that rely on Heathrow and to campaign for its secure future.”

Heathrow Airport said it had always been clear about funding Back Heathrow, but would not disclose how much it provides.

Parmjit Dhanda in 2009 at the hustings to be Speaker of the House of Commons. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Parmjit Dhanda in 2009 at the hustings to be Speaker of the House of Commons. Pic: Reuters

Who’s behind Back Heathrow?

The group’s executive director is former Labour minister Parmjit Dhanda, who was MP for Gloucester from 2001 to 2010 and sits on the National Policy Forum – the body responsible for developing Labour policy.

Latest accounts for Back Heathrow show it had five employees, including its two directors, in the financial year ending 30 June 2024. The second director is John Braggins, a former campaign adviser to Tony Blair.

The business had £243,961 in cash, the accounts show.

What are the group saying?

In the newsletter, executive director Mr Dhanda said people ask if Heathrow is sustainable. In answering the question, he appeared to suggest the airport can dictate what types of planes use Heathrow.

“We can build a cleaner, greener and smarter airport – using more sustainable aviation fuel, ensuring only the cleanest and quietest aircraft fly here, reduce stacking in our skies and modernise our airspace to cut emissions in flight,” he wrote.

When asked by Sky News what Back Heathrow meant and what the source for the claim was, the organisation pointed to the airport’s traffic light system of noise and emission measurements for the 50 largest airlines serving Heathrow.

“The scheme helps to see what areas certain airlines are excelling in and where improvements can be made,” a spokesperson said.

But those “cleaner and greener” claims were dismissed as “myths” by one campaigner.

Back Heathrow's spring 2025 newsletter
(use this one)
Image:
Back Heathrow’s spring 2025 newsletter

Finlay Asher is an aerospace engineer and co-founder of Safe Landing, a group of aviation workers and enthusiasts seeking climate improvements in the industry.

He said the emissions savings from sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) were “highly debatable” – but added that even if they were taken at face value, use of these fuels is “relatively low” and so only provides small emissions reductions.

“Air traffic growth at Heathrow will wipe this out,” he said.

Mr Asher also disputed the claim that only the cleanest and quietest aircraft will fly at Heathrow. “There is no policy in place which prevents older generation aircraft from being operated out of any airport,” he said.

As for reducing “stacking” – where aircraft wait over an airport to land – Mr Asher said if that’s the goal, “adding more aircraft to the sky won’t make this easier”.

Opposition to Back Heathrow’s claims also came from Rob Barnstone, founder of the No Third Runway Coalition, which is funded by five local authorities surrounding Heathrow Airport.

He said that regardless of fuel efficiencies or new quieter engines, having the additional 260,000 flights Heathrow has said will be created with an extra runway – in addition to the airport’s current cap of 480,000 – would create “an awful lot of noise”.

“For all the best will in the world, Heathrow is a very, very, very noisy neighbour… When you’re adding a quarter of a million additional flights, that’s going to create an awful lot of emissions, even if they’re using planes that are ever so slightly less environmentally damaging than previous planes,” Mr Barnstone said.

Green claims

Under the heading of “UK sustainable fuel industry for Heathrow”, Back Heathrow said “advances in electric and hydrogen powered aircraft can ensure we meet our environmental targets”.

Elaborating on this, Back Heathrow told Sky News: “Zero-emission electric and hydrogen aircraft are very much the end goal for civil aviation and countries like Norway have set 2040 as the year that all of their short-haul flights will be by electric planes.”

The statement was called “incredibly misleading” by Dr Alex Chapman, senior economist at the left-leaning think tank New Economics Foundation (NEF).

“There’s just absolutely no confidence that those aircraft are going to have any meaningful impact on emissions and commercial aviation in any reasonable time frame. And, yeah, we can all speculate as to what may not happen in 50 years’ time. But I think the people living around the airport should be given the information about what’s actually realistic.”

Even if the technology were available, the runway may not be ready for it, Dr Chapman said.

“Perhaps more importantly, there’s been no indication so far that the proposed new runway is being built to cater for those types of aircraft, because a runway that caters to electrical, hydrogen powered aircraft would be very different to one that was for conventional fuel, particularly in terms of the fuelling infrastructure around it that would be required: pipes to pipe hydrogen, massive charging power facilities.”

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Heathrow CEO on expansion plans

While work is under way to develop electric aircraft, there are currently no commercial electric flights taking place. The best-case scenario is battery-powered flights that may be suitable for short journeys.

But as a major international airport, more than 40% of Heathrow’s flights are long-haul and medium-haul.

And while airlines such as easyJet have called for government funding to develop hydrogen flying suitable for short-haul flights, there are obstacles to making regular commercial flights a reality.

Providing enough hydrogen for the plane journeys from renewable sources will be challenging, as will transporting the fuel, and reworking airport infrastructure for hydrogen refuelling.

Plans for hydrogen aircraft are at least a decade away, with Airbus saying it wants to get a 100-seat hydrogen plane in the air by 2035 – although Back Heathrow’s estimates for a third runway have flights taking off in 2034.

For now, rising emissions from flying are risking the UK’s climate targets, according to the independent government advisers of the Climate Change Committee, who found flights contribute more greenhouse gas than the entire electricity supply sector.

Back Heathrow's spring 2025 newsletter
(use this one)
Image:
Back Heathrow’s spring 2025 newsletter

Expanding at ‘full capacity’

On the first page of the newsletter, Back Heathrow says “Heathrow is at full capacity”, but the company told Sky News the airport has been “operating at 98% capacity since 2005”.

Despite its 98% capacity, Heathrow Airport has broken passenger number records every year for the past 14 years – excluding the pandemic years of 2020 to 2023.

Dr Chapman said Heathrow is at capacity regarding the government-imposed flight cap, not at the capacity of the current runway infrastructure.

“So if the government were, for example, to lift that cap on the number of aircraft movements, it’s pretty likely that they could actually fly 10% to 20% more flights out of the existing infrastructure,” he said.

As aeroplanes have expanded to carry more passengers, the airport has welcomed more people, he added.

The airport earlier this month announced plans to increase its capacity by 10 million passengers a year, before a third runway is built, and to raise the charge paid by passengers to fund the investment.

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How have the group and the airport responded?

A Heathrow spokesperson said: “Back Heathrow represents tens of thousands of local people who want to make their views known on the importance of Heathrow to their communities and livelihoods today and into the future.

“We have always been clear that, alongside individual residents, local business groups and trade unions, we provide funding for Back Heathrow to provide a voice for local people who historically have not been heard in the debate about expanding Heathrow.”

Speaking for the campaign group, Mr Dhanda said: “At Back Heathrow we are proud of our link to Heathrow Airport (the clue is in the name).

“We have always been open about the fact that we receive support from the airport and that they helped set the organisation up to balance the debate about expansion at a time when the voices of ordinary working people from the diverse communities around Heathrow were not being heard.”

“Back Heathrow also receives support from trade unions, local businesses and residents from amongst the 100,000 registered supporters it now has,” he added.

“We want an end to the dither and delay. Back Heathrow supporters want to see economic growth and the thousands of new jobs and apprenticeships a new runway will create.”

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