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We’re now more than four weeks into the campaign and can see how the parties are faring in seats they have been targeting, for better or worse.

Watch this week’s journeys on our animated map below.

This campaign is being fought on new electoral boundaries, with many constituencies undergoing significant changes since 2019.

For the purpose of this analysis, we use notional results based on calculations by Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher, honorary professors at the University of Exeter, which estimate the 2019 election seat results if they had taken place on the new constituency boundaries.

Shying away?

It is safe to say the campaign is not going to plan for Rishi Sunak. When the prime minister made his surprise election call on 4 July the polls were not looking good for the Conservatives, but it was assumed the gap would narrow in the run-up to election day.

The reality has been different. The Conservatives are still 20 points behind, but both main parties have shed support to the Liberal Democrats and Reform – which is proving to be more of an issue for the Conservatives than for Labour.

Whereas last week we showed Sunak fighting a lonely battle, this week there were rumours of him backing away from campaigning altogether. He made just six visits this week, a figure which has been gradually declining as the campaign progresses.

Despite this slowdown in campaigning, Sunak maintains the overall largest tally of seats visited, at 41 since the start of the campaign compared to 31 for both Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer and Liberal Democrats leader Sir Ed Davey.

He was dealt another blow when the latest Sky/YouGov MRP poll was released on Wednesday evening.

Comparing this poll, conducted from 11-18 June, to the one fielded more than two weeks earlier from 24 May-1 June, it appears the Conservatives’ fortunes are worse now than the already dire state they were in when the election was announced; their projected seat tally has dropped from 140 to 108.

Are the visits helping?

We can compare the change in performance of parties between these two polls to assess whether things are improving or getting worse for the leaders in areas they have visited.

These projections are based on respondents’ voting intentions at the time the polls were conducted, with calls for who will win seats rated from lowest to most confident projections, as either: “tossup” (too close to call), “lean”, “likely” or “safe”.

For Sunak, 12 of the constituencies he’s been to since the start of the campaign are now in a worse position for the Conservatives than earlier in the election campaign.

Of course, this might not be directly because of the prime minister’s visit, and some trips were made after polling was completed, but it will do little to cheer the faltering campaign’s spirits.

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Lib Dem threat

A particular problem for the Conservatives is the potential efficiency of the Lib Dem vote in this election, picking up votes in just the right places to hurt the Tories.

On a projected national vote share of 11.6% – the same as their 2019 result – they are projected to win a massive 67 seats, more than six times the number they notionally won in 2019, and which would be the highest number since the formation of the Lib Dems in 1988. All of their potential gains outside of Scotland are at the expense of the Conservatives.

This can be seen in key Con v Lib Dem battlegrounds visited by Sunak: eight of those have moved in favour of the Lib Dems. Places like Wokingham, graced by Sunak in week two and Davey in week three, where the Conservatives have a 23.2% majority, are now leaning more towards the Lib Dems.

In 23 of the seats the prime minister has visited, there has been no projected change in fortunes. But 18 of those are ones his party is (still) on course to lose. This includes places like Devon North, which he visited on Tuesday, where a 13.3 point swing is needed for the Liberal Democrats to gain from the Conservatives – and they are expected to do so.

Tory gains

Things improved in four of Sunak’s previous stops, notably including his home turf visits in Yorkshire. His own constituency Richmond & Northallerton, that he’s visited twice, has been upgraded from “lean” Conservative hold to “likely” hold, and Thirsk & Malton has edged from “toss-up” – meaning it’s too close to call – to “lean” Tory hold.

Perhaps his focus on the area is paying dividends.

Labour’s decrease to a still healthy projected share of 39% means they’re doing worse in seven of the constituencies Starmer has visited. Derby South was downgraded from a “safe” hold to a “likely” hold, with an increase in Reform’s vote share between polls eating into Labour’s potential majority, and the “toss-up” of Finchley & Golders Green in London inching in the Conservatives’ favour.

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There has been no change to the predictions in 22 Starmer-visited seats, where Labour remain frontrunners to gain. All bar one – Inverclyde & Renfrewshire West, which they hope to take from the SNP – are currently held by the Conservatives.

Things got better for Labour in two seats visited by Starmer. Worthing East & Shoreham, which Starmer visited in the first week of the campaign, was upgraded from a “likely” to a “safe” gain from the Tories. Nuneaton in the West Midlands similarly went from “lean” to “likely” since he stopped by on 10 June, just before the second poll.

Meanwhile, Davey has the most glowing report card, with 18 of his 31 visited constituencies looking more favourable to the Lib Dems between polls.

This includes Carshalton & Wallington, a highly marginal constituency in London where the Lib Dems came second to Conservatives by just 1.3% in 2019 but are now projected to claim a “safe” win, up from a lower confidence level of “lean” in the previous MRP. Sunak visited the area early on in week one of the campaign while Davey visited this week.

Farage factor

The other big winners in vote share over the last few weeks have been Reform, following Nigel Farage’s explosive return as leader.

Reform’s increase in projected vote share to 15.4% would put them in third place nationally, above the Lib Dems. But while this certainly appears to be hurting the Tories in particular, it is less efficient at picking up seats for Reform, of which they are currently projected five.

Neither Sunak nor Starmer have visited any of the seats that Reform are now projected to gain. That includes Clacton, where it is now projected “likely” that Nigel Farage will overturn the 56.31% Conservative majority.

It would be the eighth time lucky for Farage if he does manage to convince voters in Clacton. Over 30 years he has stood in seven different parliamentary constituencies but thus far has failed to win.

Reform launched their not-a-manifesto on Monday from Merthyr Tydfil in South Wales; with Farage saying the location was chosen “because it shows everyone exactly what happens to a country when Labour is in charge”.

They placed third here in 2019 but are projected to overtake the Conservatives and finish second to Labour, according to our latest MRP poll.

Sunak also took a swipe at Welsh Labour when he was in Clwyd North to launch the Welsh Conservative manifesto on Friday, where he said it was a “great country, but a country let down by Labour”.

Battle for the South West

This week there has been an increased interest in the South West. Previously a Lib Dem enclave, especially in their 2005 heyday, they had lost all but one of their seats here by 2017 and Bath is the only remaining constituency they are defending.

The Lib Dems are looking to make serious headway here, reflected in the number of visits the area has received.

This week alone there have been six visits to the region – two by each of the three party leaders vying for seats here. Sunak was seen in Torridge & Tavistock where the Conservatives are expected to fight off the Liberal Democrats with their 41.9% Tory majority.

Starmer made a rare defensive visit to Labour’s Bristol North West on Monday, while Davey was in Yeovil where his party will need a 13.5 point swing to beat the Conservative candidate.

The prime minister has visited 16% of the seats in the South West, more than any of the other leaders have in any other region. Davey has been to 12% of the constituencies here and 11% of those in the South East, highlighting the Liberal Democrats’ southern targeting.

Looking to appeal to broader sections of the electorate, Starmer has been much more dispersed in his regional campaigning. His maximum is the 7% of seats he has visited in Greater London, closely followed by the 6% he has stopped by in Wales.

So far 31% of the constituencies in the South West have been visited by at least one of Sunak, Starmer and Davey. The North West is the least frequented in England, where they’ve been to 11% of seats. However the parties have been sending other representatives there, such as deputy Labour leader Angela Rayner, and Scotland has been targeted more by the Scottish versions of each party than by the national party leaders.


Dr Hannah Bunting is a Sky News elections analyst and co-director of The Elections Centre at the University of Exeter.


The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

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Labour and Reform in battle for Runcorn by-election seat – but disillusionment could be eventual winner

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Labour and Reform in battle for Runcorn by-election seat - but disillusionment could be eventual winner

On the banks of the Mersey, Runcorn and Helsby is a more complicated political picture than the apparent Labour heartland that first presents itself.

Yes, there are industrial and manufacturing areas – an old town that’s fallen victim to out-of-town shopping, and an out-of-town shopping centre that’s fallen victim to Amazon.

But there are also more middle-class new town developments, as well as Tory-facing rural swathes.

Space Café director Marie Moss says a sense of community has faded
Image:
Space Cafe director Marie Moss says a sense of community has faded

One thing this area does mirror with many across the country, though, is a fed-up electorate with little confidence that politics can work for them.

In the Space Cafe in Runcorn Old Town, its director Marie Moss says many in the region remember a time when a sense of community was more acute.

“People were very proud of their town… and that’s why people get upset and emotional as they remember that,” she says.

It’s this feeling of disenfranchisement and nostalgia-tinged yearning for the past that Reform UK is trading off in its targeting of traditional Labour voters here.

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Party leader Nigel Farage features heavily on leaflets in these parts, alongside spikey messaging around migration, law and order, and Labour’s record in government so far.

Runcorn 2024 result
Image:
Runcorn 2024 result

Taxi driver Mike Holland hears frequent worries about that record from those riding in the back of his cab.

A Labour voter for decades, he says locals were “made up” at last year’s election result but have been “astonished” since then, with benefit changes a common topic of concern.

“Getting a taxi is two things, it’s either a luxury or a necessity… the necessity people are the disabled people… and a lot of the old dears are so stressed and worried about their disability allowance and whether they are going to get it or not get it,” he says.

But will that mean straight switchers to Reform UK?

Taxi driver Mike Holland has voted for Labour for decades, but is looking at the Liberal Democrats and Greens, or may not vote
Image:
Taxi driver Mike Holland has voted for Labour for decades, but is now looking at the Lib Dems and Greens – or may not vote at all

Mike says he agrees with some of what the party is offering but thinks a lot of people are put off by Mr Farage.

He’s now looking at the Liberal Democrats and Greens, both of whom have put up local politicians as candidates.

Or, Mike says, he may just not vote at all.

It’s in places like Runcorn town that some of the political contradictions within Reform UK reveal themselves more clearly.

Many here say they were brought up being told to never vote Tory.

And yet, Reform, chasing their support, has chosen a former Conservative councillor as its candidate.

It’s no surprise Labour has been trialling attack lines in this campaign, painting Mr Farage’s party as “failed Tories”.

As a response to this, look no further than Reform’s recent nod to the left on industrialisation and public ownership.

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But head 15 minutes south from Runcorn docks, and this by-election campaign changes.

Rural areas like Frodsham and Helsby have, in the past, tended towards the Tories.

The Conservatives, of course, have a candidate in this vote, one who stood in a neighbouring constituency last year.

But Reform is now making a hard play for their supporters in these parts, with a softer message compared to the one being put out in urban areas – an attempt to reassure those anxious about too much political revolution coming to their privet-lined streets.

Labour, meanwhile, is actively trying to mobilise the anti-Farage vote by presenting their candidate – another local councillor – as the only person who can stop Reform.

Nadine Tan is concerned about division and anger in the community
Image:
Makeup artist Nadine Tan is concerned about division and anger in the community

The pitch here is aimed at voters like Frodsham makeup artist Nadine Tan, who are worried about division and anger in the community.

“I think they need to kind of come together and stop trying to divide everyone,” she says.

But like Mike the taxi driver five miles north, disillusionment could be the eventual winner as Nadine says, despite the “thousands of leaflets” through her door, she still thinks “they all say the same thing”.

One factor that doesn’t seem to be swinging too many votes, though, is the insalubrious circumstances in which the area’s former Labour MP left office.

Suspended Labour MP Mike Amesbury walks outside Chester Magistrates Court.
Pic: Reuters
Image:
Labour MP Mike Amesbury was convicted of punching a man in the street. Pic: Reuters

Mike Amesbury stepped down after being convicted of repeatedly punching a constituent in a late-night brawl outside a pub.

But across the patch, many praise their ex-MP’s local efforts, while also saying he was “very silly” to have acted in the way he did.

That may be putting it mildly.

But it’s hard to find much more agreement ahead of Thursday’s vote.

A constituency still hungry for change, but unsure as to who can deliver it.

Full list of candidates, Runcorn and Helsby by-election:

Catherine Anne Blaiklock – English Democrats
Dan Clarke – Liberal Party
Chris Copeman – Green Party
Paul Duffy – Liberal Democrats
Peter Ford – Workers Party
Howling Laud Hope – Monster Raving Loony Party
Sean Houlston – Conservatives
Jason Philip Hughes – Volt UK
Alan McKie – Independent
Graham Harry Moore – English Constitution Party
Paul Andrew Murphy – Social Democratic Party
Sarah Pochin – Reform UK
Karen Shore – Labour
John Stevens – Rejoin EU
Michael Williams – Independent

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Solana’s Loopscale pauses lending after $5.8M hack

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<div>Solana's Loopscale pauses lending after .8M hack</div>

<div>Solana's Loopscale pauses lending after .8M hack</div>

Solana decentralized finance (DeFi) protocol Loopscale has temporarily halted its lending markets after suffering an approximately $5.8 million exploit. 

On April 26, a hacker siphoned approximately 5.7 million USDC (USDC) and 1200 Solana (SOL) from the lending protocol after taking out a “series of undercollateralized loans”, Loopscale co-founder Mary Gooneratne said in an X post. 

The exploit only impacted Loopscale’s USDC and SOL vaults and the losses represent around 12% of Loopscale’s total value locked (TVL), Gooneratne added. 

Loopscale is “working to resume repayment functionality as soon as possible to mitigate unforeseen liquidations,” its said in an X post. 

“Our team is fully mobilized to investigate, recover funds, and ensure users are protected,” Gooneratne said.

Solana's Loopscale pauses lending after $5.8M hack
Loopscale’s ‘Genesis’ lending vaults. Source: Loopscale

In the first quarter of 2025, hackers stole more than $1.6 billion worth of crypto from exchanges and on-chain smart contracts, blockchain security firm PeckShield said in an April report. 

More than 90% of those losses are attributable to a $1.5 billion attack on ByBit, a centralized cryptocurrency exchange, by North Korean hacking outfit Lazarus Group.

Related: Crypto hacks top $1.6B in Q1 2025 — PeckShield

Unique DeFi lending model

Launched on April 10 after a six-month closed beta, Loopscale is a DeFi lending protocol designed to enhance capital efficiency by directly matching lenders and borrowers.

It also supports specialized lending markets, such as “structured credit, receivables financing, and undercollateralized lending,” Loopscale said in an April announcement shared with Cointelegraph. 

Loopscale’s order book model distinguishes it from DeFi lending peers such as Aave that aggregate cryptocurrency deposits into liquidity pools.

Solana's Loopscale pauses lending after $5.8M hack
Loopscale’s daily active users. Source: Mary Gooneratne

Loopscale’s main USDC and SOL vaults yield APRs exceeding 5% and 10%, respectively. It also supports lending markets for tokens such as JitoSOL and BONK (BONK) and looping strategies for upwards of 40 different token pairs. 

The DeFi protocol has approximately $40 million in TVL and has attracted upwards of 7,000 lenders, according to researcher OurNetwork.

Magazine: Ripple says SEC lawsuit ‘over,’ Trump at DAS, and more: Hodler’s Digest, March 16 – 22

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US Senator calls for Trump impeachment, cites memecoin dinner

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US Senator calls for Trump impeachment, cites memecoin dinner

US Senator calls for Trump impeachment, cites memecoin dinner

United States Senator Jon Ossoff expressed support for impeaching President Donald Trump during an April 25 town hall, citing the President’s plan to host a private dinner for top Official Trump memecoin holders. 

“I mean, I saw just 48 hours ago, he is granting audiences to people who buy his meme coin,” said Ossoff, a Democrat, according to a report by NBC News. 

“When the sitting president of the United States is selling access for what are effectively payments directly to him. There is no question that that rises to the level of an impeachable offense.”

Senator Ossoff said he “strongly” supports impeachment proceedings during a town hall in the state of Georgia, where he is running for reelection to the Senate.

The Senator added that an impeachment is unlikely unless the Democratic Party gains control of Congress during the US midterm elections in 2026. Trump’s own Republican Party currently has a majority in both the House of Representatives and the Senate. 

US Senator calls for Trump impeachment, cites memecoin dinner
TRUMP holders can register to dine with the US President. Source: gettrumpmemes.com

Related: US lawmaker says TRUMP coin could risk national security

Conflicts of interest

On April 23, the Official Trump (TRUMP) memecoin’s website announced plans for Trump to host an exclusive dinner at his Washington, DC golf club with the top 220 TRUMP holders. 

The website subsequently posted a leaderboard tracking top TRUMP wallets and a link to register for the event. The TRUMP token’s price has gained more than 50% since the announcement, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

The specific guest list is unclear, but the memecoin’s website states that applicants must pass a background check, “can not be from a [Know Your Customer] watchlist country,” and cannot bring any additional guests.

On April 25, the team behind TRUMP denied social media rumors that TRUMP holders need at least $300,000 to participate in an upcoming dinner with the president.

“People have been incorrectly quoting #220 on the block explorer as the cutoff. That’s wrong because it includes things like locked tokens, exchanges, market makers, and those who are not participating. Instead, you should only be going off the leaderboard,” they wrote.

Law, Politics, Senate, Donald Trump, trumpcoin, Memecoin
The TRUMP token jumped on news of the private dinner plans. Source: CoinMarketCap

Legal experts told Cointelegraph that Trump’s cryptocurrency ventures, including the TRUMP memecoin and Trump-affiliated decentralized finance (DeFi) protocol World Liberty Financial, raise significant concerns about potential conflicts of interest

“Within just a couple of days of him taking office, he’s signed a number of executive orders that are significantly going to affect the way that our crypto and digital assets industry works,” Charlyn Ho of law firm Rikka told Cointelegraph in February. 

“So if he has a personal pecuniary benefit arising from his own policies, that’s a conflict of interest.”

Magazine: Trump’s crypto ventures raise conflict of interest, insider trading questions

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