The Cheshire Show is a world away from Westminster – but amid the agriculture machinery displays, the pony club races and pens with the best of British livestock, we have smuggled our unwieldy parliamentary bench to an industry at the mercy of changing weather and politics.
On the seat of power in a sheep pen in a far corner of the show, Ruth Howard, a ruminant nutritionist, laments the rising price of animal food. “Over the last two years in particular we’ve seen massive increases,” she says.
“I would say about two or three years ago our price for a compound feed would be about £200 a tonne. Last winter we saw them rocket to £400.
“Our motto is that we feed the animals that feed the nation, and we need support to be able to do that.
“The subsidies that are out there have helped soften the blow to the housewife in your shopping basket. Without that and without the support behind agriculture, the cost of living crisis will only get worse.”
Image: Cow and sheep nutritionist Ruth Howard and sheep farmer Richard Gate
The agricultural budget is a common theme of conversation. Sheep farmer Richard Gate says: “Subsidies are given to us and there’s a misperception that it’s to the farmer and it is not. It is to help the farmers produce cheaper food for the general public.”
Responding to the launch of party manifestos, the National Farmers Union (NFU) has expressed concern that while the Conservative Party has committed to increasing the farming budget by £1bn over the course of the next parliament, the Labour Party is yet to give a clear commitment to a budget.
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Rachel Hallos, vice president of the NFU, told Sky News: “That does concern us. We need to know what sort of budget is going to be allocated to farming.
“It’s as simple as that. I think the devil is in the detail and there doesn’t seem to be overly amounts of detail.”
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Image: National Farmers Union vice president Rachel Hallos
Labour do say in their manifesto that “food security is national security” and promise to “champion British farming”, with a target for half of all food purchased across the public sector to be sourced locally.
At the Cheshire Show, we meet dairy farmer Ray Brown who has recently spoken to both Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer. He was impressed with their understanding of the issues.
Image: Dairy farmer Ray Brown (centre) with colleagues
“We’re very, very reliant on imported food,” he said. “And we only need to look at the recent events around the world. It’s made us surely think about food security.”
He warns that some environmental schemes linked to government payments to farmers are forcing them to stop using good farming land.
Mr Brown says: “The main problem is the government thinking through the policies they’re bringing out, making sure that we can firstly feed everybody and bring environmental schemes out that make sense, use areas which we can’t grow food on, rather than letting land go, which is prime land for producing food.”
Andrew Dutton, from Cheshire Farm Machinery, says his sales are down this year due to the wet spring that has dulled crop and produce yields. He says farmers are lacking confidence to invest.
“We need more support for our farmers. We need to back British farming. We need to buy locally, buy British. The farmers need some confidence going forward that they’re going to receive the funding that they need.”
Image: Andrew Dutton, Cheshire Farm Machinery
Held in Tatton, the Cheshire Show sits in a safe Conservative constituency once held by chancellor George Osborne. The red rosettes on the prize bulls are unlikely to be worn by winners in this constituency on election night, but there’s uncertainty.
Mr Dutton says: “I’m still on the bench really?”
He taps the green cushions on our House of Commons chair. “Personally, I voted Conservative my whole life. But no one’s offering what I want at the moment.”
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A passing woman in jodhpurs says “I’m voting Reform, and a lot of my friends are voting Reform”, but she decides not to take a seat to tell us more.
We do, however, manage to speak to two horsemen fresh from jousting, dressed as knights, in the main arena. Both come from rural, Conservative-held seats in the Midlands. Clutching an axe, Sam Conway from Knights of Nottingham says he traditionally votes Conservative but wants “clarity and honesty”.
He adds: “I don’t feel like I’ve had any of that so far. I don’t feel like anyone’s come out with some clear policies. We see a lot of political jousting.”
Image: Sam Conway and Mark Lacey, jousters for the Knights of Nottingham
Sam’s fellow knight Mark Lacey leans forward on his broadsword and adds: “It’s just time for a change, and let’s see what happens. And I’m happy for it to change.
“I’ve lived in a blue area my whole life, but let’s have a change. Let’s see what somebody else does.”
On our journey across Britain – to Cornwall, Gloucester, Luton, Southall, Kent, Leicester and now Cheshire – there is a lot of indecision. Shy Tories seem extremely shy while Labour voters question whether their vote will bring the changes they want.
The farming community certainly wants more assurances from Starmer, but it also feels like this area, which is not usually an election battleground for Labour, is open to some form of change. And if Labour can capture a seat like Tatton, it would be a killer blow to the heart of their rivals.
The national inquiry into grooming gangs will leave “no hiding place” for those involved in the scandal, the home secretary has warned.
Shabana Mahmood’s vow comes amid accusations the inquiry is “descending into chaos” – with Home Office minister Jess Phillips being accused of a “lie” for disputing allegations that the inquiry is being diluted.
Three survivors have resigned from its liaison panel in recent days over concerns about how the process is being handled, while a frontrunner to chair the inquiry has also pulled out.
Image: Home Office minister Jess Phillips. Pic: PA
While Ms Mahmood acknowledged there are frustrations about the pace of progress towards launching the inquiry – which had been announced back in June – she said its scope “will not change”.
In an article for The Times, she vowed the probe “will never be watered down on my watch” – and said it will focus on how “some of the most vulnerable people in this country” were abused “at the hands of predatory monsters”.
“In time, we came to know this as the ‘grooming gangs’ scandal, though I have never thought the name matched the scale of the evil. We must call them what they were: evil child rapists,” Ms Mahmood wrote.
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Grooming gangs victim speaks out
Fiona Goddard resigned from the liaison panel after citing a “toxic, fearful environment” and “condescending and controlling language” used towards survivors.
Ellie Reynolds also quit – saying the “final turning point” was the “push to widen the remit of the national inquiry in ways that downplay the racial and religious motivations behind our abuse”.
A third known as Elizabeth – which is not her real name – followed yesterday afternoon.
Ms Mahmood said “the door will always remain open to them” if they decide to return to the liaison panel.
“But even if they do not, I owe it to them – and the country – to answer some of the concerns that they have raised,” she added.
The home secretary also insisted the inquiry will be “robust and rigorous” – with the power to compel witnesses, and examine the ethnicity and religion of the offenders.
‘Fearful environment’
Some of their fears centred around the perceived prospect of the inquiry being diluted by broadening its scope beyond group-based sexual abuse, and pushes for it to have a regional focus rather than it being truly national.
Ms Phillips, the Home Office minister, said this was “untrue”.
As well as alleging a ‘toxic, fearful environment’ within the liaison panel, Ms Goddard‘s resignation letter, which Sky News published extracts from on Monday, expressed deep reservations about the shortlisted chairs for the inquiry.
Her resignation came after Sky News revealed the two leading candidates were former police chief Jim Gamble and social worker Annie Hudson, who were due to meet the survivors panel on Tuesday, before Ms Hudson withdrew from the running.
Some survivors expressed concern that the two candidates’ backgrounds in policing and social work might lead to conflicts of interest.
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Caerphilly is famous for three Cs: coal, cheese and its mighty castle. It’s also the birthplace of the legendary comedian Tommy Cooper.
And after Thursday’s Senedd by-election, in what was once a Labour stronghold as impregnable as the castle, it’s Plaid Cymru or Reform UK that will have the last laugh.
It may not be a Westminster by-election, but this clash will have an impact on UK politics way beyond the Welsh valleys if Nigel Farage’s party triumphs.
Image: iStock file pic
A Reform UK victory would strengthen claims that Mr Farage and his insurgents are poised to inflict massive damage on Labour and the Conservatives in elections next year and beyond.
Victory in the valleys would intensify fears among the other parties that Reform UK’s boasts about winning the next general election are not the fantasy that its opponents claim.
On a campaign visit to Caerphilly, Mr Farage – inevitably – posed for photographs in front of a 9ft tall bronze statue of Tommy Cooper, who died in 1984.
But the by-election is no laughing matter for Labour, which has seen its support in this by-election crumble like Caerphilly cheese.
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Image: Mr Farage announcing Llyr Powell as the Reform candidate earlier this year
Labour has held the Westminster seat of Caerphilly since 1918 and the Senedd seat since devolution in 1999. Ron Davies, said to be the architect of Welsh devolution, was MP from 1983 to 2001.
He was Welsh secretary under Tony Blair from 1997 until he quit over what he called a “moment of madness” in 1998 when he was mugged at knifepoint on London’s Clapham Common.
For the front-runner Reform UK, not even the conviction of its former leader in Wales, Nathan Gill, for taking pro-Russian bribes seems to have halted the march of Mr Farage’s party towards the brink of a stunning victory.
Mr Gill, who led Reform UK in Wales in 2021, admitted taking bribes to make statements in favour of Vladimir Putin’s Russia while he was a member of the European Parliament.
Questioned during a visit to Caerphilly, Mr Farage said: “Any political party can find in their midst all sorts of terrible people. Gill is particularly shocking because I knew him as a devout Christian, very clean-living, honest person. So I’m deeply shocked.”
Despite this bribery scandal, the latest opinion poll in the constituency suggested a narrow Reform UK victory, with Mr Farage’s party on 42%, Plaid Cymru on 38% and Labour languishing on a dismal 12%.
But with Labour, the Conservatives, Liberal Democrats and Green Party out of contention in a two-horse race, Reform UK’s candidate Llŷr Powell could be vulnerable to tactical voting for Plaid Cymru’s Lindsay Whittle.
Image: Ron Davies, the ‘architect of Welsh devolution’, was MP for Caerphilly. File pic: Reuters
Turnout could be crucial. A low turnout is likely to help Plaid Cymru win. A high turnout could mean Reform’s opinion poll leads, both nationally and locally, are reliable and could hand victory to Mr Farage.
But Plaid has come second in every Senedd election in Caerphilly and Mr Whittle can’t be faulted for perseverance and dogged determination. Until now, he’s had a miserable record as a candidate, both for Westminster and the Senedd.
Aged 72, he has stood in Caerphilly in every general election since 1983, no fewer than 10 times, and in every Welsh Assembly election since it was formed in 1999 – seven times.
Dubbed “Mr Caerphilly” by his party, he was council leader and assembly member for South Wales East between 2011 and 2016.
Interviewed by Sky News back in 2003, the year of Tony Blair’s Iraq war, he said: “People are obviously very unhappy with the health service. They’re unhappy with the way the Labour Party are drifting to the right.
“They’re unhappy with the treatment of the ex-miners and their compensation claims. They’re unhappy with the treatment of the firemen. They’re unhappy that we’ve just gone to war.”
Image: The by-election could indicate how Labour will fare in future elections. Pic: Reuters
Reform UK’s Mr Powell, on the other hand, is just 30 and is relatively inexperienced as a candidate. He was a Tory candidate in local elections in Cardiff in 2022.
But he was also active in Mr Farage’s UKIP and Brexit Party and worked for the now disgraced Gill as a constituency caseworker while Gill was an MEP. He now says Mr Gill’s actions were “abhorrent” and “a betrayal”.
For Labour, despite its long dominance in Caerphilly, this campaign couldn’t have gone any worse. As well as battling against the unpopularity of both Sir Keir Starmer and the Welsh government, the council’s Labour leader, Sean Morgan, defected to Plaid Cymru during the campaign.
So, like many two-horse races, this political dash to the finishing line could be neck and neck.
Image: Pic: PA
Of Caerphilly’s three Cs, coal is long gone. The last mine, Penallta collier, closed in 1991, though there’s a proud history of coal mining.
Back in 1913, tragedy struck when the Universal Colliery in Senghenydd was the site of the UK’s worst mining accident, when 439 miners and a rescuer were killed in an explosion.
But Caerphilly could be about to make history once more, with either a massive stride forward on the road to Downing Street for Mr Farage or Labour surrendering power to the Welsh nationalists in Cardiff after more than a quarter of a century.
And, as Caerphilly’s most famous son would have said, the by-election result on Thursday night will be a pointer to politics in Wales and the whole of the UK… just like that!
The full list of candidates standing at the Caerphilly by-election