A flurry of general elections since 2015 has brought an unprecedented churn in our parliamentary representatives. This year, two in five MPs aren’t seeking re-election and the picture for the Conservatives is record-breakingly grim.
An unparalleled total of 23% of Conservative MPs are calling it a day in 2024, more than the previous high of 22% of Tories who quit in 1997, another year of boundary changes.
In contrast, only 15% of Labour MPs are resigning.
There are many reasons MPs quit: from retirement, family commitments and health concerns to career change, abolished constituencies, and the prospect of defeat.
But their decision to depart can reveal much about life in Westminster and have a significant impact on parliament’s mix of experience, demographics, and the direction of political parties.
Early retirement
Considering all 132 MPs not seeking re-election, age has been a crucial factor. Perhaps unsurprisingly those leaving are on average seven years older than those seeking re-election.
But look a little closer and there’s a striking difference between the parties: resigning Conservative MPs are, on average, 10 years younger than their Labour counterparts, at 56 and 66 years old, respectively.
This suggests that while Labour may be experiencing a routine turnover, the Conservatives might be facing a different kind of renewal, driven by political disenchantment and the prospect of heavy seat losses.
So, the next parliament could see a significant influx of Conservative MPs with minimal parliamentary experience, potentially reshaping the party’s dynamics as it ponders new leadership and where it stands on policy.
Veteran MPs standing down
Age isn’t the only sign of experience. It is just as important to consider when an MP was first elected. Notably, 38% of resigning MPs first entered the Commons between 1974 and 2005. The departure of these MPs raises questions about the development of collective experience.
Image: MPs retiring by length of service
Interestingly, an almost equal proportion of resigning MPs (30%) have spent less than 10 years in parliament. This mix of long-serving and relatively new MPs stepping down suggests that the life of an MP may be becoming increasingly challenging.
Whether due to the demands of the job, political disenchantment, harassment, or other factors, this highlights the pressures faced by MPs and could signal a significant generational shift.
Both Dehanna Davison and Mahri Black have spoken about the challenges of working as Members of Parliament. Ms Davison quoted in her letter of resignation that her chronic migraines make it difficult to plan work ahead and that she was afraid to be perceived as weak if she had to cancel events due to migraine episodes. Ms Black cited safety concerns, social media abuse and unsociable hours as she explained her decision to step down.
Their stories also indicate the difficulties faced by women MPs specifically.
While a smaller proportion of women MPs (15%) than men (23%) are resigning in 2024, more than half of them (52%) have spent less than 10 years in the job, compared with 23% for men.
Recent research has found that prominent young women MPs are more likely to attract abuse, harassment and intimidation. This, together with the higher structural barriers faced by women to participate in electoral politics may be driving the turnaround.
While a record number of women stand for election, also a significant number of women resign.
An analysis of Democracy Club’s most recent dataset of candidates for the 2024 general election suggests that the proportion of women selected to stand for parliament remains relatively stable – around a third (34% in 2019 and 32% in 2024).
Among the major parties, 31% of Conservative candidates are women, while Labour boasts a higher figure at 47%.
Although Labour’s current percentage represents a slight decline from 2019, when 53% of their candidates were women, it is still a strong showing.
So, we will likely see a significant proportion of women elected on 4 July. Notably, if Labour secures victory, it will mark the first time a substantial number of women would be in government, reflecting a shift towards greater gender representation in UK politics.
Since 21% of them are standing for the first time, let’s hope that more experienced incumbent MPs will make them feel welcomed in politics.
Dr Sofia Collignon is an associate professor in Comparative Politics at Queen Mary, University of London and an expert in the study of candidates, elections and parties and gendered violence against political elites.
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Flawed data has been used repeatedly to dismiss claims about “Asian grooming gangs”, Baroness Louise Casey has said in a new report, as she called for a new national inquiry.
The government has accepted her recommendations to introduce compulsory collection of ethnicity and nationality data for all suspects in grooming cases, and for a review of police records to launch new criminal investigations into historical child sexual exploitation cases.
Image: Baroness Louise Casey carried out the review. Pic: PA
The crossbench peer has produced an audit of sexual abuse carried out by grooming gangs in England and Wales, after she was asked by the prime minister to review new and existing data, including the ethnicity and demographics of these gangs.
In her report, she has warned authorities that children need to be seen “as children” and called for a tightening of the laws around the age of consent so that any penetrative sexual activity with a child under 16 is classified as rape. This is “to reduce uncertainty which adults can exploit to avoid or reduce the punishments that should be imposed for their crimes”, she added.
Baroness Casey said: “Despite the age of consent being 16, we have found too many examples of child sexual exploitation criminal cases being dropped or downgraded from rape to lesser charges where a 13 to 15-year-old had been ‘in love with’ or ‘had consented to’ sex with the perpetrator.”
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3:18
Grooming gangs victim speaks out
The peer has called for a nationwide probe into the exploitation of children by gangs of men.
She has not recommended another over-arching inquiry of the kind conducted by Professor Alexis Jay, and suggests the national probe should be time-limited.
The national inquiry will direct local investigations and hold institutions to account for past failures.
Home Secretary Yvette Cooper said the inquiry’s “purpose is to challenge what the audit describes as continued denial, resistance and legal wrangling among local agencies”.
On the issue of ethnicity, Baroness Casey said police data was not sufficient to draw conclusions as it had been “shied away from”, and is still not recorded for two-thirds of perpetrators.
‘Flawed data’
However, having examined local data in three police force areas, she found “disproportionate numbers of men from Asian ethnic backgrounds amongst suspects for group-based child sexual exploitation, as well as in the significant number of perpetrators of Asian ethnicity identified in local reviews and high-profile child sexual exploitation prosecutions across the country, to at least warrant further examination”.
She added: “Despite reviews, reports and inquiries raising questions about men from Asian or Pakistani backgrounds grooming and sexually exploiting young white girls, the system has consistently failed to fully acknowledge this or collect accurate data so it can be examined effectively.
“Instead, flawed data is used repeatedly to dismiss claims about ‘Asian grooming gangs’ as sensationalised, biased or untrue.
“This does a disservice to victims and indeed all law-abiding people in Asian communities and plays into the hands of those who want to exploit it to sow division.”
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3:07
From January: Grooming gangs: What happened?
The baroness hit out at the failure of policing data and intelligence for having multiple systems which do not communicate with each other.
She also criticised “an ambivalent attitude to adolescent girls both in society and in the culture of many organisations”, too often judging them as adults.
‘Deep-rooted failure’
Responding to Baroness Casey’s review, Ms Yvette Cooper told the House of Commons: “The findings of her audit are damning.
“At its heart, she identifies a deep-rooted failure to treat children as children. A continued failure to protect children and teenage girls from rape, from exploitation, and serious violence.
She added: “Baroness Casey found ‘blindness, ignorance, prejudice, defensiveness and even good but misdirected intentions’ all played a part in this collective failure.”
Ms Cooper said she will take immediate action on all 12 recommendations from the report, adding: “We cannot afford more wasted years repeating the same mistakes or shouting at each other across this House rather than delivering real change.”
Image: Home Secretary Yvette Cooper responded to the report. Pic: PA
Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch said: “After months of pressure, the prime minister has finally accepted our calls for a full statutory national inquiry into the grooming gangs.
“We must remember that this is not a victory for politicians, especially the ones like the home secretary, who had to be dragged to this position, or the prime minister. This is a victory for the survivors who have been calling for this for years.”
Ms Badenoch added: “The prime minister’s handling of this scandal is an extraordinary failure of leadership. His judgement has once again been found wanting.
“Since he became prime minister, he and the home secretary dismissed calls for an inquiry because they did not want to cause a stir.
“They accused those of us demanding justice for the victims of this scandal as, and I quote, ‘jumping on a far right bandwagon’, a claim the prime minister’s official spokesman restated this weekend – shameful.”
The government has promised new laws to protect children and support victims so they “stop being blamed for the crimes committed against them”.
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