Voters have been left in the dark over how the major parties will be able to fund their spending commitments, a respected thinktank has said, offering just “thin gruel”.
The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) took further aim at what it described as a “conspiracy of silence” from both the Conservatives and Labour on how they could meet the challenges they identify, such as reducing NHS waiting lists.
Launching its report on the crucial documents, IFS director Paul Johnson warned that spending on many public services would likely need to be cut over the next parliament unless government debt was to rise or taxes increased further.
He pointed to pressure from a 60-year high in government debt levels at a time of a near-record tax burden.
Much of the blame for this was a £50bn a year increase in debt interest spending relative to forecasts, he explained, and a growing welfare budget in the wake of the COVID pandemic and cost of living crisis that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
5:19
Labour manifesto versus the rest
“We have rising health spending, a defence budget which for the first time in decades will likely grow rather than shrink, and the reality of demographic change and the need to transition to net zero,” Mr Johnson said.
More on General Election 2024
Related Topics:
“Add in low growth and the after-effects of the pandemic and energy price crisis and you have a toxic mix indeed when it comes to the public finances.”
“These raw facts are largely ignored by the two main parties in their manifestos”, he declared, describing the information presented to voters as a “knowledge vacuum”.
“In line with their unwillingness to face up to the real challenges, neither main party makes any serious new proposals to increase taxes”, Mr Johnson said.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
6:21
What is in the Conservative Party manifesto?
“Consistent with their conspiracy of silence, both are keeping entirely silent about their commitment to a £10bn a year tax rise through a further three years of freezes to personal tax allowances and thresholds.
“Both have tied their hands on income tax, NICs, VAT and corporation tax. The Conservatives have a long list of other tax rises, and reforms, that they wouldn’t do. Labour have ruled out more tax options since the publication of the manifestos.
“Taken at face value, Labour’s promise of no tax increases on working people” rules out essentially all tax rises. There is no tax paid exclusively by those who don’t work. Who knows what this pledge is really supposed to mean,” he concluded.
What about the other parties?
The IFS said the Liberal Democrats had bigger tax and spend policies than Labour or the Conservatives.
It also determined that Reform UK and the Greens offered much bigger numbers but declared that what they propose is “wholly unattainable”, helping to “poison the entire political debate”.
Mr Johnson concluded: “The choices in front of us are hard. High taxes, high debt, struggling public services, make them so.
“Pressures from health, defence, welfare, ageing will not make them easier. That is not a reason to hide the choices or to duck them. Quite the reverse. Yet hidden and ducked they have been.”
The chancellor has confirmed she is considering “changes” to ISAs – and said there has been too much focus on “risk” in members of the public investing.
In her second annual Mansion House speech to the financial sector, Rachel Reeves said she recognised “differing views” over the popular tax-free savings accounts, in which savers can currently put up to £20,000 a year.
She was reportedly considering reducing the threshold to as low as £4,000 a year, in a bid to encourage people to put money into stocks and shares instead and boost the economy.
However the chancellor has shelved any immediate planned changes after fierce backlash from building societies and consumer groups.
In her speech to key industry figures on Tuesday evening, Ms Reeves said: “I will continue to consider further changes to ISAs, engaging widely over the coming months and recognising that despite the differing views on the right approach, we are united in wanting better outcomes for both savers and for the UK economy.”
She added: “For too long, we have presented investment in too negative a light, quick to warn people of the risks, without giving proper weight to the benefits.”
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
6:36
Rachel Reeves’s fiscal dilemma
Ms Reeves’s speech, the first major one since the welfare bill climbdown two weeks ago, appeared to encourage regulators to focus less on risks and more on the benefits of investing in things like the stock market and government bonds (loans issued by states to raise funds with an interest rate paid in return).
She welcomed action by the financial regulator to review risk warning rules and the campaign to promote retail investment, which the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) is launching next year.
“Our tangled system of financial advice and guidance has meant that people cannot get the right support to make decisions for themselves”, Ms Reeves told the event in London.
Last year, Ms Reeves said post-financial crash regulation had “gone too far” and set a course for cutting red tape.
On Tuesday, she said she would announce a package of City changes, including a new competitive framework for a part of the insurance industry and a regulatory regime for asset management.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
4:21
Reeves is ‘totally’ up for the job
In response to Ms Reeves’s address, shadow chancellor Sir Mel Stride said: “Rachel Reeves should have used her speech this evening to rule out massive tax rises on businesses and working people. The fact that she didn’t should send a shiver down the spine of taxpayers across the country.”
Spotify
This content is provided by Spotify, which may be using cookies and other technologies.
To show you this content, we need your permission to use cookies.
You can use the buttons below to amend your preferences to enable Spotify cookies or to allow those cookies just once.
You can change your settings at any time via the Privacy Options.
Unfortunately we have been unable to verify if you have consented to Spotify cookies.
To view this content you can use the button below to allow Spotify cookies for this session only.
The governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, also spoke at the Mansion House event and said Donald Trump’s taxes on US imports would slow the economy and trade imbalances should be addressed.
“Increasing tariffs creates the risk of fragmenting the world economy, and thereby reducing activity”, he said.
The taxpayer is to help drive the switch to non-polluting vehicles through a new grant of up to £3,750, but some of the cheapest electric cars are to be excluded.
The Department for Transport (DfT) said a £650m fund was being made available for the Electric Car Grant, which is due to get into gear from Wednesday.
Users of the scheme – the first of its kind since the last Conservative government scrapped grants for new electric vehicles three years ago – will be able to secure discounts based on the “sustainability” of the car.
It will apply only to vehicles with a list price of £37,000 or below – with only the greenest models eligible for the highest grant.
Buyers of so-called ‘Band two’ vehicles can receive up to £1,500.
The qualification criteria includes a recognition of a vehicle’s carbon footprint from manufacture to showroom so UK-produced EVs, costing less than £37,000, would be expected to qualify for the top grant.
More from Money
It is understood that Chinese-produced EVs – often the cheapest in the market – would not.
Image: BYD electric vehicles before being loaded onto a ship in Lianyungang, China. Pic: Reuters
DfT said 33 new electric car models were currently available for less than £30,000.
The government has been encouraged to act as sales of new electric vehicles are struggling to keep pace with what is needed to meet emissions targets.
Challenges include the high prices for electric cars when compared to conventionally powered models.
At the same time, consumer and business budgets have been squeezed since the 2022 cost of living crisis – and households and businesses are continuing to feel the pinch to this day.
Another key concern is the state of the public charging network.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
3:29
The Chinese electric car rivalling Tesla
Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander said: “This EV grant will not only allow people to keep more of their hard-earned money – it’ll help our automotive sector seize one of the biggest opportunities of the 21st century.
“And with over 82,000 public charge points now available across the UK, we’ve built the infrastructure families need to make the switch with confidence.”
The Government has pledged to ban the sale of new fully petrol or diesel cars and vans from 2030 but has allowed non-plug in hybrid sales to continue until 2025.
It is hoped the grants will enable the industry to meet and even exceed the current zero emission vehicle mandate.
Under the rules, at least 28% of new cars sold by each manufacturer in the UK this year must be zero emission.
The figure stood at 21.6% during the first half of the year.
The car industry has long complained that it has had to foot a multi-billion pound bill to woo buyers for electric cars through “unsustainable” discounting.
Mike Hawes, chief executive of the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders, said the grants sent a “clear signal to consumers that now is the time to switch”.
He went on: “Rapid deployment and availability of this grant over the next few years will help provide the momentum that is essential to take the EV market from just one in four today, to four in five by the end of the decade.”
But the Conservatives questioned whether taxpayers should be footing the bill.
Shadow transport secretary Gareth Bacon said: “Last week, the Office for Budget Responsibility made clear the transition to EVs comes at a cost, and this scheme only adds to it.
“Make no mistake: more tax rises are coming in the autumn.”
A leading financier and Conservative Party donor is among the contenders vying to chair Channel 4, the state-owned broadcaster.
Sky News has learnt from Whitehall sources that Wol Kolade has been shortlisted to replace Sir Ian Cheshire at the helm of the company.
Mr Kolade, who has donated hundreds of thousands of pounds to Tory coffers, is said by Whitehall insiders to be one of a handful of remaining candidates for the role.
A recommendation from Ofcom, the media regulator, to Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy about its recommendation for the Channel 4 chairmanship is understood to be imminent.
Mr Kolade, who heads the private equity firm Livingbridge, has held non-executive roles including a seat on the board of NHS Improvement.
He declined to comment when contacted by Sky News on Monday.
His candidacy pits him against rivals including Justin King, the former J Sainsbury chief executive, who last week stepped down as chairman of Ovo Energy.
Debbie Wosskow, an existing Channel 4 non-executive director who has applied for the chair role, is also said by government sources to have made it to the shortlist.
Sir Ian stepped down earlier this year after just one term, having presided over a successful attempt to thwart privatisation by the last Tory government.
The Channel 4 chairmanship is currently held on an interim basis by Dawn Airey, the media industry executive who has occupied top jobs at companies including ITV, Channel 5, and Yahoo!.
The race to lead the state-owned broadcaster’s board has acquired additional importance since the resignation of Alex Mahon, its long-serving chief executive.
It has since been reported that Alex Burford, another Channel 4 non-executive director and the boss of Warner Records UK, was interested in replacing Ms Mahon.
Ms Mahon, who was a vocal opponent of Channel 4’s privatisation, is leaving to join Superstruct, a private equity-owned live entertainment company.
The appointment of a new chair is expected to take place by the autumn, with the chosen candidate expected to lead the recruitment of Ms Mahon’s successor.
The Department for Culture, Media and Sport declined to comment on the recruitment process.