Rivian (RIVN) drastically cuts costs as push for first profit ramps up: What to expect in Q2
Rivian (RIVN) is learning from its past as it looks to turn its first profit. The cost of building its vehicles has “improved dramatically” as Rivian slashes costs on its path to profitability.
After establishing itself as a true luxury EV brand, Rivian is looking to control costs as it moves toward the next chapter.
Rivian delivered over 50,000 vehicles last year, more than doubling from 2022. The R1S was the fourth best-selling EV in the US through Q1 2024, behind only Tesla’s Model Y, Model 3, and the Ford Mustang Mach-E.
Meanwhile, Rivian delivered 13,588 vehicles in the first quarter, a slight decrease from the 13,972 handed over in Q4 2023.
Rivian expected deliveries to slall after announcing plans to shut down production at its Normal, IL plant last year. Rivians CEO and founder RJ Scaringe said during a recent fireside chat that the planned shutdown in April “introduced a dramatic cost reduction in material costs.”
Scaringe warned, “From an investor perspective, the second quarter’s going to be messy,” following a month-long shutdown.
Rivian looks past “messy” Q2 as it cuts costs
Although new supplier contracts and production upgrades will drastically lower Rivian’s bill of materials into 2025, we may not see much of the impact until Q3.
“We will deliver a very small percentage of these newer vehicles [in terms of cost] in Q2,” Scaringe explained, adding, “You won’t see a lot of those benefits until you get to Q3.”
These changes have been negotiated with suppliers over the past two years, so Rivian isn’t “hoping or wishing costs were lower.” Rivian also added hundreds of new robots, increasing the line rate by 30%.
The EV maker has eliminated 100 steps from battery making, 52 pieces of equipment from the body shop, and over 500 parts from the design of the R1T and R1S.
Scaringe told Reuters during a recent factory tour that the upgrade earlier this year resulted in a 35% cost reduction of materials for its vans. The new changes provide savings of a “similar magnitude” for its other vehicles.
Rivian’s cost of building vehicles has “improved dramatically,” Scaringe said. “The design of the parts and the design of the plant facilitate making the vehicle easier to build.”
The next chapter
Rivian’s gross vehicle margins have improved over the last year after it lost around $39,000 on each EV built in Q1 2024. That’s down from the +$67,300 loss in Q1 2023 but up slightly from the $32,594 and $30,500 losses in Q2 and Q3 2023, respectively.
| Q3 ’22 | Q4 ’22 | Q1 ’23 | Q2 ’23 | Q3 ’23 | Q4 ’23 | Q1 ’24 | |
| Rivian loss per vehicle | $139,277 | $124,162 | $67,329 | $32,594 | $30,500 | $43,372 | $38,784 |
The EV maker expects the cost savings to help it reach a positive gross margin by the end of the year. Rivian ended Q1 with just under $8 billion in cash and equivalents, which is enough to launch its smaller, more affordable R2 model.
Rivian expects R2 to greatly expand its market after the $45,000 electric SUV earned over 68,000 reservations in less than 24 hours.
The R2 will be built at its Normal plant starting in early 2026. Rivian initially planned to begin R2 production at its new GA facility, but the move helped save $2.25 billion while accelerating the launch.
Rivian’s R2 will account for 155,000 of the 215,000 future capacity at Rivian’s Normal plant. The plant’s current capacity is around 150,000 vehicles.
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Environment
Elon Musk Tapped to Lead New ‘DOGE’ Department—Despite the Government Already Having One for Efficiency
Tesla CEO Elon Musk is to officially join Trump’s administration as the co-head of the new US Department of Government Efficiency – a second federal department with the goal of making government spending more efficient.
You can’t get more ironic than that.
Throughout the elections, Musk, who is already CEO of Tesla, and SpaceX, a well as the defacto head of X, xAI, Neuralink, and the Boring Company, has been floating the idea to add to his workload by joining the Trump’s administration to lead a new department aimed at making the federal government more efficient.
He has been calling it the “Department of Government Efficiency”, which spells out ‘DOGE’, a meme that Musk appears to enjoy.
Well, now Trump appears to want to be going through with this idea.
He announced the new department and Musk as head, along with Vivek Ramaswamy, in a statement today:
I am pleased to announce that the Great Elon Musk, working in conjunction with American Patriot Vivek Ramaswamy, will lead the Department of Government Efficiency (“DOGE”). Together, these two wonderful Americans will pave the way for my Administration to dismantle Government Bureaucracy, slash excess regulations, cut wasteful expenditures, and restructure Federal Agencies – Essential to the “Save America” Movement. “This will send shockwaves through the system, and anyone involved in Government waste, which is a lot of people!” stated Mr. Musk.
What’s most ironic is that there’s already a federal department with the goal of cutting government waste and ensuring efficiency: the Government Accountability Office (GAO).
The GAO’s main objectives are:
- auditing agency operations to determine whether federal funds are being spent efficiently and effectively;
- investigating allegations of illegal and improper activities;
- reporting on how well government programs and policies are meeting their objectives;
- performing policy analyses and outlining options for congressional consideration;
- issuing legal decisions and opinions;
- advising Congress and the heads of executive agencies about ways to make government more efficient and effective
It sounds similar to what Musk described when talking about his DOGE, but Trump hasn’t gone into many details other than it will “cut waste.”
He also has a confusing message as he compares the initiative, which is supposed to cut government spending, to “The Manhattan project”, a massive and expensive government project.
Trump said that DOGE will help the government “drive large scale structural reform”:
It will become, potentially, “The Manhattan Project” of our time. Republican politicians have dreamed about the objectives of “DOGE” for a very long time. To drive this kind of drastic change, the Department of Government Efficiency will provide advice and guidance from outside of Government, and will partner with the White House and Office of Management & Budget to drive large scale structural reform, and create an entrepreneurial approach to Government never seen before.
The statement also noted that DOGE will only operate until July 4, 2026.
Musk has previously claimed that he could cut at least $2 trillion dollars of the $6.5 trillion dollar US federal budget.
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A pump jack in Midland, Texas, US, on Thursday, Oct. 3, 2024.
Anthony Prieto | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Oil prices may see a drastic fall in the event that oil alliance OPEC+ unwinds its existing output cuts, said market watchers who are predicting a bearish year ahead for crude.
“There is more fear about 2025’s oil prices than there has been since years — any year I can remember, since the Arab Spring,” said Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis at OPIS, an oil price reporting agency.
“You could get down to $30 or $40 a barrel if OPEC unwound and didn’t have any kind of real agreement to rein in production. They’ve seen their market share really dwindle through the years,” Kloza added.
A decline to $40 a barrel would mean around a 40% erasure of current crude prices. Global benchmark Brent is currently trading at $72 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures are around $68 per barrel.
Oil prices year-to-date
Given that oil demand growth next year probably won’t be much more than 1 million barrels a day, a full unwinding of OPEC+ supply cuts in 2025 would “undoubtedly see a very steep slide in crude prices, possibly toward $40 a barrel,” Henning Gloystein, head of energy, climate and resources at Eurasia Group, told CNBC.
Similarly, MST Marquee’s senior energy analyst Saul Kavonic posited that should OPEC+ unwind cuts without regard to demand, it would “effectively amount to a price war over market share that could send oil to lows not seen since Covid.”
However, the alliance is more likely to opt for a gradual unwinding early next year, compared to a full scale and immediate one, the analysts said.
Should the producers group proceed with their production plan, the market surplus could nearly double.
Martoccia Francesco
Energy strategist at Citi
The oil cartel has been exercising discipline in maintaining its voluntary output cuts, to the point of extending them.
In September, OPEC+ postponed plans to begin gradually rolling back on the 2.2 million barrels per day of voluntary cuts by two months in an effort to stem the slide of oil prices. The 2.2 million bpd cut, which was implemented over the second and third quarters, had been due to expire at the end of September.
At the start of this month, the oil cartel again decided to delay the planned oil output increase by another month to the end of December.
Oil prices have been weighed by a sluggish post-Covid recovery in demand from China, the world’s second-largest economy and leading crude oil importer. In its monthly report released Tuesday, OPEC lowered its 2025 global oil demand growth forecast from 1.6 million barrels per day to 1.5 million barrels per day.
The pressured prices were also conflagrated by a perceivably oversupplied market, especially as key oil producers outside the OPEC alliance like the U.S., Canada, Guyana and Brazil are also planning to add supply, Gloystein highlighted.
Bearish year ahead for oil
The market consensus is that there’ll be a “substantial” oil stock build next year, said Citibank energy strategist Martoccia Francesco.
“Should the producers group proceed with their production plan, the market surplus could nearly double… reaching as much as 1.6 million barrels per day,” said Francesco.
Even if OPEC+ doesn’t unwind the cuts, the future ofl prices is still looking break. Citi analysts expect Brent price to average $60 per barrel next year.
Further fueling the bearish outlook is the incoming administration of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, whose return is associated by some with a potential trade war, said analysts who spoke to CNBC.
“If we do get a trade war — and a lot of economists think that a trade war is possible, and particularly against China — we could see much, much lower prices,” said OPIS’ Kloza.
Trump has also touted a “drill baby drill” policy for U.S. producers, vowing to cut energy prices in half.
For that to happen to retail gasoline prices, oil would need to drop to “below $40” per barrel, said Matt Smith, Kpler’s lead oil analyst.
Right now, retail gasoline prices are at a “sweet spot” at $3 per gallon, where consumers do not feel the pinch and input prices are still sufficiently high for producers, Smith added.
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