Rachel Doerrie is a professional data consultant specializing in data communication and modelling. She’s worked in the NHL and consulted for professional teams across North American and Europe. She hosts the Staff & Graph Podcast and discusses sports from a data-driven perspective.
NHL draft week is officially upon us. The Stanley Cup was awarded Monday night after one of the greatest Finals in decades. The attention turns away from the game’s brightest stars, away from the silver trophy and toward players who teams hope can be part of their Stanley Cup success in the future.
For the San Jose Sharks, a franchise cornerstone awaits. For the other 31 teams, a plethora of talented forwards and impactful defensemen. What the draft may lack in generational star power, it makes up for in depth. Many of the players selected this weekend will go on to have brilliant NHL careers, win Stanley Cups and blow expectations out of the water.
The final ranking accounts for model projections, model confidence, viewings, combine results and industry intel. Moreso than previous iterations, players will rise and fall in this ranking based on viewings and industry expertise. Be it belief in a player’s ability to make things happen, defensive play that isn’t weighed as heavily in the model or industry hesitancy surrounding the player, there are many reasons players move up and down a list. I prefer to weigh upside and potential more than those within the industry but have gained an appreciation for players with lower ceilings and more projectable development curves.
No one wins or loses the Stanley Cup on draft day, but you can’t win one without nailing a few draft picks along the way. The first step to glory starts Friday.
Here is my final Big Board, with coverage beginning Friday (7 p.m. ET, ESPN/ESPN+) and Saturday, June 29 (11:30 a.m. ET, ESPN+).
1. Macklin Celebrini F, Boston University
Previous ranking: 1
A franchise cornerstone center who will have an immediate impact, Celebrini is the top prize of the class for good reason. There is no area of the game where legitimate concerns exist. Simply put, he does not have a weak point. He excels as a 200-foot player, making significant contributions on both ends of the ice. A talent so rare, he became one of the few true freshmen to win the Hobey Baker as the top player in college hockey.
Offensively, he navigates the middle of the ice, disrupts defensive schemes and finds passing lanes that others cannot. His puck protection skills, willingness to play through contact, spin off defenders and maintain play are qualities that will translate well to the NHL. Even without the puck, he remains a scoring threat due to his ability to find open spaces, keep his stick away from defenders and release the puck quickly.
His exceptional toolbox suggests that he will be an elite play driver and two-way center at the NHL level. He’s a player whom coaches will be comfortable using in all situations against other team’s best players. While not generational, he is transformative for a franchise and someone a team can build a Stanley Cup contender around.
Knight’s Choice has won the 2024 Melbourne Cup, defeating Warp Speed and Okita Soushi in a thrilling finish at Flemington on Tuesday afternoon.
The massive outsider saluted for Irish-born jockey Robbie Dolan, who claimed victory in what was his first ever ride in the “race that stops a nation”.
In what was a gripping 164th staging of Australia’s most-watched thoroughbred race, Knight’s Choice proved too strong in a sprint to the finish, pulling over the top of Okita Soushi and holding off Warp Speed by the barest of margins.
Trained by John Symons and Sheila Laxon on the Sunshine Coast, Knight’s Choice was well down the betting across all markets. It was Laxon’s second Melbourne Cup triumph after she trained Ethereal to victory 23 years ago.
“This is the pinnacle of all pinnacles, this is the Melbourne Cup,” Symons said.
Zardozi rounded out the first four.
As the field approached the final few hundred metres it appeared as though Jamie Kah, aboard Okita Soushi, would become just the second woman to ride the winner in the Melbourne Cup. But Okita Soushi was swallowed up as the winning post neared, with Knight’s Choice beating Warp Speed to the line after a peach of a ride from Dolan.
“We’ll be singing tonight after a few beers,” Dolan, who was a contestant on the 2022 edition of “The Voice”, told Channel 9.
“It is amazing and a lot of people doubted this little horse. Doubt me now.”
Laxon was more than happy with the ride, with Dolan threading his way through the field from near last on the bend.
“He started the race, and he knew how to ride him. We didn’t give him instructions, he knew what to do,” she said.
“I love it being down for the Australians. The Australian horse has done it, and Robbie is Australian now as well, so I’m thrilled to win the Cup, and it is the people’s Cup, and that’s what it is all about.”
Knight’s Choice is just the sixth Australian-bred horse to win since 1993, and the first since Vow and Declare back in 2019.
The five-year-old gelding carried only 51kg to victory and was making its first start over the 3200m trip. It had most recently come off a fifth-placed finish in the Bendigo Cup, but had showed sparing little form this preparation otherwise.
“I watched every Melbourne Cup for the last 40 years. I thought my best chance was to get him to stay the trip and, hopefully, he can run home and do the quick sectionals he can on a good track and he proved everybody wrong,” Dolan said.
MILWAUKEE — The Brewers‘ starting rotation could have a new look next season with right-handers Frankie Montas and Colin Rea heading into free agency.
The Brewers announced Monday that Montas had declined his part of a $20 million mutual option for 2025. The Brewers turned down the $5.5 million club option on Rea’s contract.
Montas receives a $2 million buyout and Rea gets a $1 million buyout.
Montas, 31, had a combined 7-11 record with a 4.84 ERA and 148 strikeouts over 150⅔ innings in 30 starts for the Cincinnati Reds and Brewers this season. He was 3-3 with a 4.55 ERA in 11 starts for the Brewers, who acquired him just before the trade deadline.
Rea, 34, was 12-6 with a 4.28 ERA this season in 32 appearances, including 27 starts. He struck out 135 in 167⅔ innings. Rea had an 8.31 ERA in September and was left off the Brewers’ NL Wild Card Series roster.
Herget, 33, had no record with one save and a 1.59 ERA in seven appearances with Milwaukee this year. He was 5-1 with four saves and a 2.27 ERA in 38 relief outings with Triple-A Nashville.
Zastryzny, 32, was 1-0 with a 1.17 ERA in nine appearances with Milwaukee. He pitched in 30 games with Nashville and went 4-0 with a 3.03 ERA.
The 29-year-old Bauers batted .199 with a .301 on-base percentage, 12 homers and 43 RBIs in 116 games this season. He also hit a seventh-inning homer that broke a scoreless tie in the decisive Game 3 of the Wild Card Series with the Mets, who rallied in the ninth to win 4-2.
Wilson, who turns 27 on Dec. 20, went 5-4 with a 4.04 ERA in 34 appearances, including nine starts.
SAN ANTONIO — Right-hander Phil Maton became a free agent Monday after the New York Mets declined his $7,775,000 option in favor of a $250,000 buyout.
The 31-year-old was 2-1 with a 2.51 ERA in his first season with New York, which acquired him from Tampa Bay on July 9. Maton was 3-3 with a 3.66 ERA in a career-high 71 games overall and had a $6.25 million salary.
New York also announced left-hander Sean Manaea declined his $13.5 million option to become a free agent for the third consecutive offseason. Manaea agreed to a contract in January that included a $14.5 million salary for 2024, and the 32-year-old went 12-6 with a 3.47 ERA in 32 starts, striking out 184 and walking 63 in 181⅔ innings.
After dropping his arm slot in midseason, he became the Mets most effective starting pitcher and went 6-2 with a 3.09 ERA.