Don’t be led by what appears to be obvious.

The Mamdani victory is historic for him, a dreamy American journey for an immigrant rising to the top, and, along with the governor victories in New Jersey and Virginia, it undoubtedly represents a gear shift for the Democrats who have been lost in a Trumpian vortex since Joe Biden’s disastrous presidential debate 18 months ago.

All of this is true. And in that sense, it was of course a very good night for the Democratic Party. Winning is clearly better than losing.

But what if Mamdani is actually a poison chalice for the Democrats? They are drinking this socialist’s champagne now because they finally have some momentum.

But he isn’t a champagne socialist. He is a purist socialist; proudly one.

Explainer: Who is Zohran Mamdani?

With his skilful communication skills and his apparent authenticity, he has energised New York City. And no wonder. The alternative was the flawed, compromised Andrew Cuomo. Mamdani offered hope for a deeply liberal city that’s lost in Trump World.

Trump endorsed Cuomo not because he agrees with Mamdani’s own tagline: “I am Trump’s worst nightmare…”

Trump endorsed Cuomo because he knew that it would probably increase Mamdani’s share of the vote – and it did.

Why would Trump do this? Maybe because he thinks Mamdani is the perfect foil for him.

What Trump can get out of apparent defeat

Mamdani’s victory gives Trump and his allies two things.

First, they can sit back and watch the Democrats squabble about whether Mamdani’s leftward Democratic socialism is the future of their party. And be in no doubt, they will.

Second, they can warn centrists and right-leaning folk: ‘Look, the Democrats really are socialists…’. The president continues to frame him as a “communist”.

The Democrats may choose the Mamdani lane and stick with it, especially if he is successful in New York. But the Big Apple is not remotely representative of America.

Beyond New York City, Mamdani is, history would suggest, off the spectrum when it comes to electable Democratic Party candidates – America remains a conservative society; political spectrums here naturally tack right.

Team Trump knows all this, so they’ll relish the prospect of the Democratic Party machine (which has form in picking the wrong candidate) being lured by Mamdani-mania.

Cost of living a key issue

Beyond that, there is a vital takeaway for Trump from this mini and not wholly representative referendum on his presidency so far.

Many ordinary Americans are still hurting economically, big time.

The Democrats won in New York, New Jersey and Virginia because their candidates all focused on kitchen table issues.

The president clearly recognises this, to an extent. “Day by day, we’re going to make America affordable again,” he said after the Mamdani victory.

But he was speaking not to the people who are feeling the squeeze. Instead, he chose to mark a year since he was elected with a speech to a wealthy business crowd in Miami. Safe crowd, safe state, safe space.

JD Vance’s telling reaction

Maybe the most telling thing to come out of the past 24 hours in American politics was from the vice president.

In a social media post, JD Vance first warned followers not to overreact to the results.

He then went on to offer his own notable interpretation of the Democratic Party victories.

“We need to focus on the home front.” he wrote. “The president has done a lot that has already paid off in lower interest rates and lower inflation, but we inherited a disaster from Joe Biden and Rome wasn’t built in a day.

“We’re going to keep on working to make a decent life affordable in this country, and that’s the metric by which we’ll ultimately be judged in 2026 and beyond.”

Read more: Mamdani can’t expect easy wins

My interpretation of his interpretation?

Two points: first, that Vance thinks that Trump needs to get back to his base. Ten months of presidential jet-setting and global-conflict-solving may have been necessary, but it won’t spell victory in the midterms next year or beyond.

The second point – Vance is so clearly in it for the long game. The “beyond” he talks about has him at its centre.

I’m not sure Vance would have chosen a Miami arena full of business leaders to mark a year since the election. The business and investment community is happy and wealthy.

I think Vance would have been with the other America, where people are feeling the squeeze still.

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Trump continues to talk about the economy being “Biden’s economy”. Vance seems to be hinting at the inevitable – that at some point they need to own it and to fix it. They need to make people feel better off.

Vance wants to run and to win in 2028, and that fight begins now.

As an image makeover, I suppose it was instant.

I swear we saw a vision of Zohran Mamdani watching Sky Sports News transfer deadline day coverage, top on, texting the group chat about late medicals and beating his chest, still, about Thierry Henry to Barcelona.

Yes, New York’s new mayor is an Arsenal supporter. He told me as much when I introduced myself from Sky News.

He said in his youth he’d been a viewer of Sky’s transfer deadline day, when fans watch live coverage of their club’s transfer activity.

In a “morning after” news conference, it was pleasant chat – evidence of the everyman anti-politician who’d sold personality with the politics. If it’s a game they all play, some do it better than others.

But then there was my question to him. What message did his victory send to his own Democratic Party, members of which have been cool on his left-wing politics?

Also, what did it mean to Donald Trump? He bit on the Trump part of the question but dodged the other bit that alluded to a reluctant Democratic old guard.

It is a pressing issue for a party clutching for a strategy to beat Trump, and yet pushing away the left-wing Mamdani, one of their own, who found the formula in New York.

Democrats have a big square to circle

Clearly, it isn’t a party discussion to be aired publicly, which means there’s no coherent strategy.

Privately, however, it’s a circle they must surely square: how to harness the strategy and success of a leftist agenda that landed in New York, and make it work across America.

Mamdani’s victory will build influence on the left of the movement – and its tangible success to counter a party establishment dismissing its progressive wing as toxic to the brand.

Mamdani held his victory news conference in the shadow of the “Unisphere”, a representation of the Earth in Flushing, Queens.

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The caption encouraged by his handlers was, presumably, something to do with the “world at his feet”. “World of difficulty” would be an alternative that might not find an argument.

For the Arsenal supporter at the heart of US politics, there is no easy win – even in the home games.

Democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani will become New York City’s next mayor after he swept to victory in a decisive win.

His rise to political stardom was complete late on Tuesday night when he was projected to have won the mayoral contest, which will see him sworn in to replace Eric Adams in January.

In a fiery acceptance speech last night, Mr Mamdani, the first Muslim and South Asian mayor of New York, said: “If anyone can show a nation betrayed by Donald Trump how to defeat him, it is the city that gave rise to him.”

The 34-year-old is the youngest person in a century to be elected as the famous city’s mayor.

So how did he get here, what does he stand for, and why has he proved a divisive figure?

From rapper to mayor

Mr Mamdani, a state lawmaker, was relatively unknown when he announced his run in October last year.

His win in the summer in the Democratic mayoral primary against then favourite Andrew Cuomo – a former New York governor making a political comeback from a sexual harassment scandal – shocked the nation.

He was elected to the State Assembly in 2020, representing a district in Queens, becoming the first South Asian man to serve in the NYS Assembly, as well as the first Ugandan and third Muslim to ever be a member of the body

Before that he was on the city’s rapping scene, going by Young Cardamom and later as Mr Cardamom.

He made a song called #1 Spice with the artist HAB for the 2016 Disney film Queen of Katwe, which was directed by his mother Mira Nair, an award-winning filmmaker, while another song, Nani – a tribute to his grandmother – was released in 2019.

Mr Mamdani was born in Kampala, Uganda, and was raised there and briefly in South Africa until he was seven years old, when his family moved to New York.

He is the son of filmmaker mother Mira Nair, best known for 2001 comedy/drama Monsoon Wedding, and Mahmood Mamdani, an anthropology professor at Columbia University.

He went to a public school and attended the Bronx High School of Science, before receiving a degree in Africana Studies from Bowdoin College, where he co-started the school’s first Students for Justice in Palestine chapter.

He became naturalised as an American citizen in 2018, and worked as a foreclosure prevention housing counsellor.

The politician says that the job, which saw him help low-income homeowners of colour across Queens fight off eviction and stay in their homes, inspired him to run for office.

Mr Trump has alleged without evidence that Mr Mamdani is in the US “illegally,” and some Republicans have called for his deportation.

Mr Mamdani married Rama Duwaji, a Syrian American artist whom he met on the dating app Hinge, earlier this year.

How did Mamdani win?

His energetic campaign, with cost-of-living concerns at its heart, has made Mr Mamdani popular among working-class voters.

He has used social media to engage with a younger demographic, with slickly-produced videos earning him nearly 5 million followers on Instagram and 1.6 million on TikTok.

He has set out his vision of free buses, free childcare, new apartments and a higher minimum wage – paid for by new taxes on the rich.

Likewise, he has also shared plans to hire thousands of new teachers, renegotiate city contracts and freeze rent increases for the city’s one million rent-regulated apartments.

“We won because New Yorkers allowed themselves to hope that the impossible could be made possible,” Mr Mamdani told supporters after his win.

Critics have suggested his ambitious plans won’t be affordable.

Mr Mamdani’s campaign was helped by controversies plaguing his competitors.

Who ran against him?

Mr Cuomo had been trying to make a political comeback from a sexual harassment scandal that saw him resign as governor of New York state in 2021.

His resignation came after a report from the state attorney general concluded that he had sexually harassed at least 11 women. Mr Cuomo has said he did not intentionally mistreat the women but had run afoul of what was considered appropriate workplace conduct.

The 67-year-old refused to back down after losing the Democratic primary to Mr Mamdani, and became a more likely winner as an independent than Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa, owing to New York’s largely Democratic-leaning population.

Adding to Mr Mamdani’s chances was the fact that the incumbent Democratic mayor, Eric Adams, decided to drop out of the race for re-election in September. His reputation had taken a hit after he was charged with taking bribes and illegal campaign contributions from foreign nationals last year. The charges have since been dropped.

Why Mamdani is a divisive figure on the left

Progressives have rallied behind Mr Mamdani throughout his campaign, with his economic populism and youthful charisma raising his popularity beyond New York.

He has had heavy support from popular US Senator Bernie Sanders and Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, from before he won the primary in June.

For much of his campaign, Democratic leaders in Washington and moderate Democrats were seen actively distancing themselves from Mr Mamdani, with some considering his socialist views too radical.

He has been an outspoken critic of Israel, calling its military campaign in Gaza a “genocide” and saying Palestine should exist as “a state with equal rights,” while demanding hefty tax increases on the wealthy to make life more affordable for everyday New Yorkers.

His views have posed a challenge for the leftist leaders, who want to appeal to voters not just in Democratic strongholds like New York but also in swing states or places that lean toward Republicans, such as Senate contests next year in North Carolina and Ohio.

Party leaders like governor Kathy Hochul and House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries eventually endorsed Mr Mamdani months after he won the nomination.

Mr Jeffries, a moderate New York Democrat, said he had disagreements with Mr Mamdani but supported him as the nominee, adding that the party should unify against Republicans and Donald Trump.

While he did not openly endorse the 34-year-old, The New York Times reported that former US president Barack Obama had called Mr Mamdani and offered to be a “sounding board”.

What has Trump said about Mamdani?

Mr Trump, unsurprisingly, has been critical of Mr Mamdani, calling him a “communist” who “doesn’t know a thing” and “probably never worked a day in his life”.

He even suggested Republican candidate Mr Sliwa should drop out to give Mr Cuomo a bigger share of votes, and on the day before the last day of voting, explicitly endorsed the independent candidate on Truth Social.

Throughout his campaign to be mayor, Mr Mamdani was critical of the Trump administration – in particular about the immigration raids seen in cities like Chicago and Los Angeles, vowing to hire more lawyers for the city to challenge any National Guard or ICE deployment.

In August, he said a New York with him as mayor would be “Donald Trump’s worst nightmare”.

Mr Trump said Mr Mamdani’s election would bring “disaster” for the city.

And in a speech on Tuesday night after winning the election, Mr Mamdani fired attacks against Mr Trump, saying: “If anyone can show a nation betrayed by Donald Trump how to defeat him, it is the city that gave rise to him.”

As he was speaking, the president posted a blunt rebuttal on Truth Social, saying: “…AND SO IT BEGINS!”