A potential Cy Young showdown? What we learned from Tarik Skubal vs. Ranger Suarez
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David Schoenfield, ESPN Senior Writer
Philadelphia‘s Ranger Suarez versus Detroit‘s Tarik Skubal might have been one of the most anticipated pitching matchups of the first half of the 2024 baseball season.
You probably didn’t have that one on your bingo card back in March. Entering Tuesday night’s game in Detroit, the two lefties were most likely the leading contenders to win the Cy Young Award if the vote had been held the same day. Suarez was 10-1 with a 1.75 ERA and led the National League in wins and ERA while holding batters to a .191 average and .538 OPS. Skubal was 8-3 with a 2.50 ERA while holding batters to a .207 average and .592 OPS.
Now, saying they might win isn’t quite the same thing as saying they’re favored to win the award at the end of the season. Skubal entered the matchup as the odds-on favorite in the American League at +185, according to ESPN BET, while Suarez was second in the NL behind teammate Zack Wheeler at +325.
The showdown did set up the rare possibility of Cy Young winners starting against each other in the regular season during the same season they won the award. It has happened just one other time, when David Price of the Rays faced R.A. Dickey of the Mets on June 13, 2012. (Obviously, this would have been impossible before interleague play began in 1997, but the odds of such a matchup are slim — albeit a little more likely now that each team will play at least one series against every club in the other league.) It’s also happened four times in World Series history: In 1968, when Bob Gibson faced Denny McLain in Games 1 and 4; and then again in 1969 when Mike Cuellar faced Tom Seaver in Games 1 and 4.
Tuesday’s game almost turned into a great pitcher’s duel — the two cruised through four scoreless innings in about 45 minutes — before the Tigers pulled away for the 4-1 win over the Phillies. So, what exactly did we see from both Cy Young hopefuls?
Let’s start with Skubal.
When fans and analysts talk about pitchers “maxing out” all the time these days, that’s not quite right. Most starting pitchers can crank it up in a crucial moment and that’s what Skubal did to get out of trouble in the second inning, when he struck out Cristian Pache swinging on a 98.2-mph fastball with two outs and runners on second and third. His four-seamer averages a still-blistering 96.7 mph, but he went 98.4 and 98.2 to fan Pache.
Skubal was able to get out of another jam in the next inning. He hit Trea Turner with a pitch with two outs and Bryce Harper followed that up with a double to left-center field, but Riley Greene made a nice play to hold Turner at third. Facing Alec Bohm, the leading RBI guy in the NL, Skubal started off with a changeup for a called strike and then threw three sinkers in a row. Bohm, perhaps looking for that four-seamer up in the zone, grounded out softly to second.
Skubal dominated after that, allowing just one infield single over his final four innings, finishing with seven scoreless innings and seven strikeouts. At just 91 pitches, Detroit manager A.J. Hinch probably could have let Skubal go another inning, but he appears to be on a strict 100-pitch limit (Hinch hasn’t let him go beyond that yet). Skubal certainly looked like a Cy Young favorite: His arsenal is ridiculous. He throws from a high slot, touches 98 mph, throws a sinker to change the eye line of hitters, throws a changeup (he threw it 29 times Tuesday), has a slider that looks like it’s going to break the kneecaps of right-handed hitters and then mixes in an occasional knuckle-curve, which feels unfair.
Plus, he works fast — he has the 19th fastest pitch tempo among starters. He’s not giving hitters much time to think about which unhittable pitch is coming next. Among left-handed starters, maybe only Blake Snell, the 2023 NL Cy Young winner, can match Skubal in terms of pure stuff, but Skubal has much better control. (Garrett Crochet and Cole Ragans would be up there, too.)
None of this is necessarily all that surprising: Once he recovered from arm surgery in 2022, Skubal dominated in the second half of last season with a 2.80 ERA over 15 starts. The only question regarding the Cy Young race will be whether he can hold up for 180 innings or so, as his career high is 149 innings back in 2021.
Now to Suarez, who has been one of the biggest surprises of the season.
He’s the antithesis of Skubal, relying on a 91-mph sinker and changing speeds and location. It’s art over power for Suarez, and he deserved better in this game. The Tigers scored four runs off him in the fifth, but the inning opened up when Turner booted a grounder going to his right with runners at first and second and no outs. It was ruled a base hit but should have been an error. A run then scored on a fielder’s choice and two more on a soft single up the middle with the infield drawn in before Greene tripled to score the fourth run. If Turner makes an out there, it’s possible Suarez puts up a zero in the inning.
(As an aside: Turner is not a good defensive shortstop. Edmundo Sosa filled in for Turner when he was injured and had a range factor of 4.00 plays made per nine innings compared to Turner’s 3.18. That’s a big difference — and we saw the same thing last season, albeit in a very small sample size. It’s unlikely the Phillies would do this given Turner’s contract, but if they’re really looking to upgrade center field, they could move Turner there — where he played some as a rookie back in 2016 — and keep Sosa, who has hit well, at shortstop.)
Anyway, it was a bit of a tough-luck outing for Suarez, and he wasn’t too happy when Phillies manager Rob Thomson took him out after six innings. Can he keep it going?
I wouldn’t project a 2.01 ERA the rest of the way, of course, but Suarez has increased his strikeout rate this year — 99 in 98⅓ innings — and hasn’t simply been a guy who’s been hit-lucky. He gets a ton of grounders; in this game, they just found holes. He’s healthy after battling some forearm tightness last year and we’ve seen him deliver in the postseason the past two years for the Phillies (1.62 ERA across 33 innings). It seems like the focused October version of Suarez is now showing up in the regular season. In this era, it’s sometimes hard to believe in a guy who doesn’t throw a blazing fastball, but I’m buying Suarez. I think he’ll be in that Cy Young race deep into the season.
Fun game to watch: 2 hours, 4 minutes. And if both guys go on to win Cy Young Awards, put it down as a fun bit of historic trivia as well.
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Neil Paine
Hockey is a notoriously chaotic sport in which you need a large sample of games to know what’s real versus what’s just noise. For instance, it is estimated that it takes the entire 82-game NHL season to give us as much information about team quality as just 32 NBA games — or less than half the regular season — do.
So it’s always risky to draw grand conclusions from what we see over the first month of play on the ice. But that can’t stop us from finding interesting trends emerging from the early portion of the schedule.
Here are seven initial developments that have taken us by surprise in 2024-25 so far:
1. Ovechkin’s comeback against Father Time
One of the biggest storylines heading into the season was Alex Ovechkin‘s pursuit of Wayne Gretzky’s goal-scoring record, with the Great 8 starting the season trailing The Great One by 41 scores.
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Sean Allen
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Victoria Matiash
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Victoria Matiash
Fantasy Hockey
- ESPN.com Fantasy Contributor since 2010
- Part-time anchor at NEWSTALK1010
Another week, another No. 1 landing spot for the Winnipeg Jets in the ESPN NHL Power Rankings. But who finishes 2-32?
Plus, it’s another fantasy hockey takeover week, with Sean Allen and Victoria Matiash identifying one player per team who is off to a slow start (relative to his teammates or expectations) and advising fantasy managers whether to have patience or panic at this time.
And as a reminder, it’s not too late to join ESPN Fantasy Hockey. Sign up for free and start playing today!
How we rank: A panel of ESPN hockey commentators, analysts, reporters and editors sends in a 1-32 poll based on the games through Wednesday, which generates our master list here.
Note: Previous ranking for each team refers to the previous edition, published Nov. 8. Points percentages are through Thursday’s games.
Previous ranking: 1
Points percentage: 88.24%
Cole Perfetti, LW (28.9% rostered in ESPN Fantasy leagues): As difficult as it is to find fault with anything Jets-related these days, Perfetti isn’t quite meeting 2024-25 fantasy expectations yet. But the 22-year-old remains cemented on the Jets’ second scoring line and power play, and he has pitched in enough multipoint showings to merit another look in deeper leagues. Verdict: Patience.
Next seven days: @ FLA (Nov. 16), vs. FLA (Nov. 19)
Previous ranking: 2
Points percentage: 73.33%
Brent Burns, D (69.5%): The writing had been on the wall, faintly sketched with a carpenter’s pencil, but now it’s been retraced in ink. Shayne Gostisbehere has the power play on lock, and Burns doesn’t put up the points without it now. Verdict: Panic.
Next seven days: vs. OTT (Nov. 16), vs. STL (Nov. 17), @ PHI (Nov. 20), @ NJ (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 4
Points percentage: 67.65%
Gustav Forsling, D (68.8%): Playoff heroics can inflate rostership numbers even this far into the future, but Forsling isn’t a must-have fantasy contributor. You can find a defenseman with a higher ceiling among your league’s free agents. Verdict: Panic.
Next seven days: vs. WPG (Nov. 16), @ WPG (Nov. 19), @ CHI (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 5
Points percentage: 78.13%
Marc-Andre Fleury, G (51.8%): As long as Filip Gustavsson continues to perform dependably well, the veteran No. 2 isn’t going to play much. There are other lesser-rostered backups in the league — Jake Allen and Jonathan Quick come to mind — who offer more fantasy punch than Fleury. Verdict: Panic.
Next seven days: vs. DAL (Nov. 16), @ STL (Nov. 19), @ EDM (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 6
Points percentage: 70.00%
Matt Roy, D (45.6%): After a breakout fantasy campaign with the Kings last season, cut Roy some slack. He has had only a handful of games to get used to his new teammates, and the minutes are there to get the job done. Verdict: Patience.
Next seven days: @ COL (Nov. 15), @ VGK (Nov. 17), @ UTA (Nov. 18), vs. COL (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 3
Points percentage: 70.00%
Mika Zibanejad, C (95.6%): Zibanejad has had slow starts before — 1.78 FPPG in 2021-22 and 1.93 FPPG last season — yet still finished over 2.00 FPPG. His current 1.58 FPPG isn’t alarming. Verdict: Patience.
Next seven days: @ SEA (Nov. 17), @ VAN (Nov. 19), @ CGY (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 7
Points percentage: 68.75%
Brayden McNabb, D (52.3%): Returning to his selfless ways — highlighted by five blocked shots against the Ducks Wednesday — McNabb is already working back into his fantasy managers’ good graces. While hardly a prolific producer, the veteran should start pitching in a few more points, too. Verdict: Patience.
Next seven days: @ UTA (Nov. 15), vs. WSH (Nov. 17), @ TOR (Nov. 20), @ OTT (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 10
Points percentage: 65.00%
Luke Hughes, D (39.1%): He did an admirable job filling in for an injured Dougie Hamilton as a rookie last season, but unless that situation arises again, it looks as though Hughes is out of the limelight for this campaign. Verdict: Panic.
Next seven days: @ TB (Nov. 16), vs. CAR (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 8
Points percentage: 66.67%
Roope Hintz, C (79.8%): Some bad puck luck, illustrated by his 6.7% shooting percentage through six recent contests (career: 16.5%), is partially to blame for Hintz’s current skid. But the perennial 30-plus goal scorer is bound to get back on track soon, especially once Peter DeBoer inevitably juggles his lines again. Verdict: Patience.
Next seven days: @ MIN (Nov. 16), vs. ANA (Nov. 18), vs. SJ (Nov. 20)
Previous ranking: 11
Points percentage: 63.33%
Filip Hronek, D (51.9%): He’s averaging approximately a single shot and blocked shot per game. Unlike last season, the compensatory scoring isn’t there to make up for those shortcomings. Hronek appears far more valuable to the Canucks as Quinn Hughes‘ defensive partner than to his fantasy managers. Verdict: Panic.
Next seven days: vs. CHI (Nov. 16), vs. NSH (Nov. 17), vs. NYR (Nov. 19)
Previous ranking: 9
Points percentage: 58.33%
Quinton Byfield, RW (43.2%): The lack of a single power-play point is one concern, along with his removal from the top unit. Through the fantasy lens, so is Byfield’s third-line role. If all remains as is, we might be in for another season of inconsistent fantasy returns. Verdict: Panic.
Next seven days: vs. DET (Nov. 16), vs. BUF (Nov. 20)
Previous ranking: 13
Points percentage: 61.11%
Matthew Knies, LW (42.4%): He has been making hay while the sun shines, so to speak, as he gets first power-play unit access while Auston Matthews is out. The confidence boost should carry over to when Matthews returns, and they are linemates again. Verdict: Patience.
Next seven days: vs. EDM (Nov. 16), vs. VGK (Nov. 20)
Previous ranking: 17
Points percentage: 55.88%
Jeff Skinner, C (45.0%): Afforded the opportunity to compete alongside just about every Oiler up front, including two of the best centers in the biz, the veteran winger has nonetheless failed to offer much of a productive presence. Now Skinner appears relegated to Edmonton’s fourth line. Verdict: Panic.
Next seven days: @ TOR (Nov. 16), @ MTL (Nov. 18), @ OTT (Nov. 19), vs. MIN (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 12
Points percentage: 56.67%
Jake Guentzel, LW (98.8%): Guentzel’s overall output is fantastic already, but with just two power-play points so far, he has yet to add his usual production with the man advantage. If he does, his already strong fantasy profile could get a big boost. Verdict: Patience.
Next seven days: vs. NJ (Nov. 16), @ PIT (Nov. 19), @ CBJ (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 19
Points percentage: 52.94%
Devon Toews, D (66.7%): While it has taken the defender time to warm up after a delayed start to 2024-25, Toews now appears back in his groove: blocking shots, contributing to the score sheet and skating more minutes than nearly everyone else. Cale Makar‘s partner hasn’t averaged 0.58 points per game throughout his career by accident. Verdict: Patience.
Next seven days: vs. WSH (Nov. 15), @ PHI (Nov. 18), @ WSH (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 15
Points percentage: 53.13%
Linus Ullmark, G (84.8%): The Senators are showing signs of competing, and we know Ullmark is capable of being among the best. Patience might already be paying off with some of his recent road outings against tough division rivals. Verdict: Patience.
Next seven days: @ CAR (Nov. 16), vs. EDM (Nov. 19), vs. VGK (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 14
Points percentage: 55.88%
Nazem Kadri, C (78.4%): While no one is scoring much for the Flames these days, including their No. 1 center, this too shall pass. Perhaps it’ll play out like last season, when Kadri collected two points in October before erupting for 13 in November, then maintained that scoring pace for the duration of the season. Also, he shoots the puck a lot. Verdict: Patience.
Next seven days: vs. NSH (Nov. 15), vs. NYI (Nov. 19), vs. NYR (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 20
Points percentage: 50.00%
Charlie McAvoy, D (89.9%): The Bruins’ offense might be slower this season, but McAvoy’s 1.64 FPPG is still too low. Give him time. Not enough has changed to drop him far from his 2.29 FPPG average over the past three seasons. Verdict: Patience
Next seven days: vs. STL (Nov. 16), vs. CBJ (Nov. 18), vs. UTA (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 18
Points percentage: 53.13%
Barrett Hayton, C (17.5%): According to analysis by Evolving Hockey, the third-line center (for now) should be scoring more goals in accordance with the quality of his shots. That offers some comfort in light of his current skid. While Hayton certainly needs to play more minutes and shoot on net more often, he doesn’t merit giving up entirely in deeper fantasy leagues. Verdict: Patience.
Next seven days: vs. VGK (Nov. 15), vs. WSH (Nov. 18), @ BOS (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 24
Points percentage: 52.94%
Brock Nelson, C (76.9%): The Isles’ collective offense isn’t weaker than it has been for several years. Nelson has averaged 2.03 FPPG across the past three seasons. He’ll come around. Verdict: Patience.
Next seven days: @ SEA (Nov. 16), @ CGY (Nov. 19), @ DET (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 21
Points percentage: 50.00%
Patrick Kane, RW (66.3%): If the Red Wings’ power play were in the dumps, maybe we could preach patience for Kane. But it’s not, and it might be time to move on from Kane in fantasy. He is getting all the opportunities required and is just not producing. Verdict: Panic.
Next seven days: @ ANA (Nov. 15), @ LA (Nov. 16), @ SJ (Nov. 18), vs. NYI (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 23
Points percentage: 50.00%
Dylan Cozens, C (49.3%): It is time to move off Cozens. He had that banner 2022-23 but is now matching the reduced fantasy production that lasted all of last season. Even an uptick in performance might not be enough to get to fantasy relevance from his current 1.41 FPPG. Verdict: Panic.
Next seven days: @ PHI (Nov. 16), @ LA (Nov. 20)
Previous ranking: 25
Points percentage: 50.00%
Adam Larsson, D (60.5%): Despite the relative drought, the top-pair defenseman still blocks a sufficient number of shots to merit rostering in deeper standard leagues. Plus, he’ll soon fall back into his usual (however relatively modest) scoring groove. Verdict: Patience.
Next seven days: vs. NYI (Nov. 16), vs. NYR (Nov. 17), vs. NSH (Nov. 20)
Previous ranking: 16
Points percentage: 44.12%
Jordan Binnington, G (55.1%): After winning the season opener against Seattle, the Blues’ No. 1 has yet to beat anyone outside of the Atlantic Division. Shouldering a 4-7-0 record, .887 save percentage and 3.26 goals-against average, Binnington has cost his fantasy managers a total net loss of 1.8 points. Yes, negative points. There are likely brighter days ahead for the banged-up Blues, but when? Verdict: Panic.
Next seven days: @ BOS (Nov. 16), @ CAR (Nov. 17), vs. MIN (Nov. 19), vs. SJ (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 31
Points percentage: 47.06%
Joel Farabee, LW (50.7%): Farabee, Tyson Foerster, Scott Laughton; Take your pick of Flyers who were just picking up some fantasy momentum in their career but have been buried on the depth chart by the new core group. Verdict: Panic.
Next seven days: vs. BUF (Nov. 16), vs. COL (Nov. 18), vs. CAR (Nov. 20)
Previous ranking: 27
Points percentage: 38.24%
Teuvo Teravainen, RW (41.4%): The Blackhawks’ offseason acquisition has one goal and zero assists in his past 11 games, and he isn’t shooting with any consistency. Even back on a scoring line with Connor Bedard, Teravainen can’t be counted on to contribute regularly enough. Verdict: Panic.
Next seven days: @ VAN (Nov. 16), vs. ANA (Nov. 19), vs. FLA (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 26
Points percentage: 41.67%
Erik Karlsson, D (94.1%): It’s been a season and a quarter now, so what we see from Karlsson as a Penguin might be what we get. He’s not the sole source of offense, so downgraded fantasy output is just the new normal. Verdict: Panic.
Next seven days: @ CBJ (Nov. 15), vs. SJ (Nov. 16), vs. TB (Nov. 19)
Previous ranking: 22
Points percentage: 40.00%
Ivan Provorov, D (19.2%): No one on the Blue Jackets is underperforming in a big way, but even 20% rostership is too high for Provorov. If he’s not on the first pair, you can safely pretend he’s not there. Verdict: Panic.
Next seven days: vs. PIT (Nov. 15), @ MTL (Nov. 16), @ BOS (Nov. 18), vs. TB (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 28
Points percentage: 38.24%
Gustav Nyquist, RW (16.6%): Once replaced by Steven Stamkos on the Predators’ top line, Nyquist lost most of his fantasy charm. It’s no coincidence the winger was at his most productive when skating alongside Filip Forsberg and Ryan O’Reilly. Verdict: Panic.
Next seven days: @ CGY (Nov. 15), @ VAN (Nov. 17), @ SEA (Nov. 20)
Previous ranking: 29
Points percentage: 40.00%
Lukas Dostal, G (60.7%): The Ducks allow the most shots against (35.5 per game) while scoring the fewest goals (2.20 per game). Plus, a healthy John Gibson is back to share Anaheim’s crease. Dostal’s successful fantasy run was fun while it lasted. It’s time to move on. Verdict: Panic.
Next seven days: vs. DET (Nov. 15), @ DAL (Nov. 18), @ CHI (Nov. 19)
Previous ranking: 32
Points percentage: 36.11%
William Eklund, LW (56.2%): The sophomore is playing a ton of minutes, pitching in assists and now skating on a scoring line with Mikael Granlund. Which is a good thing. Yes, we’d all like to see him shoot more. Verdict: Patience.
Next seven days: @ PIT (Nov. 16), vs. DET (Nov. 18), @ DAL (Nov. 20), @ STL (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 30
Points percentage: 35.29%
Sam Montembeault, G (22.3%): The Habs don’t look like they’ll win enough for Monty to shine in redraft leagues, but if you drafted him for a keeper league, there are positive signs for the future. Verdict: Patience, at least for the long term.
Next seven days: vs. CBJ (Nov. 16), vs. EDM (Nov. 18)
LAS VEGAS — Left-handers Chris Sale of the Atlanta Braves and Garrett Crochet of the Chicago White Sox won Major League Baseball’s Comeback Player of the Year awards on Thursday.
Cleveland right-hander Emmanuel Clase won his second AL Reliever of the Year award and St. Louis righty Ryan Helsley won the NL honor.
Los Angeles Dodgers star Shohei Ohtani joined David Ortiz as the only players to win four straight Outstanding Designated Hitter awards. Ohtani and the New York Yankees‘ Aaron Judge won Hank Aaron Awards as the outstanding offensive performers in their leagues.
Major League Baseball made the announcements at its All-MLB Awards Show.
Sale, 35, was 18-3 with a 2.38 ERA and 225 strikeouts in 177⅔ innings for the NL’s first pitching triple crown since the Dodgers’ Clayton Kershaw in 2011. He earned his eighth All-Star selection and first since 2018.
Sale helped Boston to the 2018 World Series title but made just 56 starts from 2020-23, going 17-18 with a 4.86 ERA, 400 strikeouts and 79 walks over 298⅓ innings. He was acquired by Boston from the White Sox in December 2016 and made nine trips to the injured list with the Red Sox, mostly with shoulder and elbow ailments. He had Tommy John surgery on March 30, 2020, and returned to a big league mound on Aug. 14, 2021.
Sale fractured a rib while pitching in batting practice in February 2022 during the management lockout. On July 17, in his second start back, he broke his left pinkie finger when he was hit by a line drive off the bat of the Yankees’ Aaron Hicks. Sale broke his right wrist while riding a bicycle en route to lunch on Aug. 6, ending his season.
Crochet, 25, was 6-12 with a 3.58 ERA over 32 starts for a White Sox team that set a post-1900 record of 121 losses, becoming a first-time All-Star. He struck out 209 and walked 33 in 146 innings.
He had Tommy John surgery on April 5, 2022, and returned to the major leagues on May 18, 2023. Crochet had a 3.55 ERA in 13 relief appearances in 2023, and then joined the rotation this year.
Sale and Crochet were chosen in voting by MLB.com beat writers.
Clase and Helsley were unanimous picks by a panel that included Hall of Famers Trevor Hoffman, Mariano Rivera, Dennis Eckersley and Rollie Fingers, along with John Franco and Billy Wagner. The AL award is named after Rivera and the NL honor after Hoffman.
A three-time All-Star, Clase was 4-2 with a 0.61 ERA, 66 strikeouts and 10 walks in 74⅓ innings, holding batters to a .154 average. The 26-year-old converted 47 of 50 save chances, including his last 47.
Voting was based on the regular season. Clase was 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA in the playoffs, allowing three home runs, one more than his regular-season total.
Helsley, a two-time All-Star, was 7-4 with a 2.04 ERA and 49 saves in 53 chances. He struck out 79 and walked 23 in 66⅓ innings.
Ohtani became the first player with 50 or more homers and 50 or more stolen bases in a season. A two-way star limited to hitting following elbow surgery, Ohtani batted .310 and led the NL with 54 homers and 130 RBIs while stealing 59 bases.
Ortiz won the DH award five years in a row from 2003-07.
The DH award, named after Edgar Martinez, is picked in voting by team beat writers, broadcasters and public relations departments. MLB.com writers determined the finalists for the Aaron awards, and a fan vote was combined with picks from a panel of Hall of Famers and former winners to determine the selections.
Judge led the major leagues with 58 homers and 144 RBIs while hitting .322.
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