One of the policy areas on which the Labour Party has been very specific during this general election campaign is its approach towards North Sea oil and gas production.
The party has been clear that it will raise existing windfall taxes first slapped on North Sea oil and gas producers in 2022 by Rishi Sunak, when he was chancellor, taking the total level of tax from the current 75% to 78%.
Ed Miliband, the shadow secretary of state for energy security and net zero, also proposes to take away tax reliefs Mr Sunak put in place alongside the windfall tax, to sugar the pill, which allowed producers to offset their investments in new production against their tax bills.
Mr Miliband, who has referred to these tax breaks as ‘loopholes’, argues this would bring the tax treatment of the British North Sea into line with that of the Norwegian North Sea. He is also proposing a ban on new oil and gas exploration licenses as part of what remains of his ‘green prosperity plan‘.
With Labour so far ahead in the polls, that is already having an effect on investment in the North Sea, with a trio of companies – Jersey Oil and Gas, Serica Energy and Neo Energy – announcing earlier this month that they are delaying, by a year, the planned start of production at the Buchan oilfield 120 miles to the north-east of Aberdeen.
Industry attacks
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Serica, which on average has produced 43,781 barrels of oil or oil equivalent per day so far this year, sought today to remind politicians of the potential consequences of their actions.
David Latin, Serica’s chairman and interim chief executive, unleashed a furious attack on the proposals – telling shareholders: “I have been involved in this industry for more than 30 years and have worked all over the world.
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“Other than when I was responsible for a company which had significant assets in a war zone, I have never encountered a situation which was so challenging when it comes to making investment decisions, and planning for the future more generally, as it is in the UK at present.”
Reminding his audience that the UK consumes almost twice as much oil and gas as it produces, Mr Latin said that deficit would persist even as the country sought to reduce its consumption of hydrocarbons, with the gap being filled by imports.
He added: “These imports worsen our national balance of payments, only deliver jobs and taxes to foreign countries and, typically, have higher production and transportation carbon emissions by the time they get to our shores.”
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Criticising the Conservatives for persisting with windfall taxes despite oil and gas prices having returned to historically normal levels and Labour for proposing to raise those taxes, Mr Latin said there were a number of misconceptions around the tax regime – not least the notion that the windfall tax is being paid largely by oil majors like Shell and BP.
He went on: “As to the claim that the tax is being paid by the “oil and gas giants”, it is in fact independent companies like Serica who are most affected. The ‘majors’ account for only around a third of UK production and the vast majority of their profits are made overseas and are not touched by increasing tax rates on UK production.
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Labour ‘not turning off the taps’ of oil and gas
“Indeed, for those companies such as Serica that continued to invest in their assets during periods of lower commodity prices prior to the invasion of Ukraine, the current fiscal regime represents a further punishment for risk capital committed to its portfolio during the very low commodity prices seen in the COVID period.
“Closing ‘loopholes’ in UK oil and gas tax seems to mean different things to different people.
“Whatever is meant, I wish to be crystal clear that reducing tax relief for capital expenditure below the rate at which tax is payable would make investment in the vast majority of UK North Sea projects unprofitable, meaning that these projects, and the jobs and tax revenues they would generate, simply will not happen.”
Union criticism of Labour
But criticism of Labour’s policy was also coming today from another direction.
Unite, the UK’s biggest union and traditionally Labour’s biggest financial supporter, also has concerns banning new oil and gas exploration licences that could force the UK to import more gas when it still has plenty of its own.
Today it published an open letter, urging a rethink on the ban, signed by nearly 200 local firms from Scottish towns dependent on the oil and gas industry – while some of those businesses joined Unite members in a demonstration outside Aberdeen’s Maritime Museum.
Sharon Graham, Unite’s general secretary, said: “Until Labour has a concrete plan for replacing North Sea jobs and ensuring energy security, the ban on new oil and gas exploration licenses should not go ahead.
“Labour must not allow oil and gas workers to become this generation’s coal miners. Scotland’s oil and gas communities are crying out for a secure future and that is what Labour must deliver.”
However, while businesses are warning that Labour’s policy will drive investment elsewhere and unions worry about the impact on jobs and local communities in north-east Scotland, there are others who think the party could go further.
Not going far enough
While Unite was staging its demonstration in Aberdeen, some 50 protestors from a group calling itself Stop Polluting Politics were staging one of their own 553 miles to the south at the Labour Party headquarters in Southwark, southeast London.
They allege that the party has “financial ties to polluting corporations” and have criticised a decision by Rachel Reeves, the shadow chancellor, to accept a £10,000 campaign donation from Lord Donoughue, the Labour peer, who has in the past chaired the Global Warming Policy Foundation – a climate change sceptic lobby group.
They allege that Ms Reeves’s decision to ‘water down’ Mr Miliband’s ‘green prosperity plan’ in February this year was influenced by the donation – something Lord Donoughue himself has vehemently denied.
It all highlights how energy policy threatens to become a major headache for Labour should it win the election a week today.
The owner of Poundland, one of Britain’s biggest discount retailers, has drafted in City advisers to explore radical options for arresting the growing crisis at the chain.
Sky News has learnt that Pepco Group, which has owned Poundland since 2016, has hired consultants from AlixPartners to address a sales slump which has raised questions over its future ownership.
City sources said this weekend that the crisis would prompt Pepco to explore more fundamental for Poundland, including a formal restructuring process that could prompt significant store closures, or even an attempt to sell the business.
AlixPartners is understood to have been formally engaged last week, with options including a company voluntary arrangement or restructuring plan said to have been floated by a range of advisers on a highly preliminary basis.
Sources close to the group said no decisions had been taken, and that the immediate focus was on improving Poundland’s cash performance and reviving the chain’s customer proposition.
A sale process was not under way, they added.
Poundland trades from 825 stores across the UK, competing with the likes of Home Bargains, B&M and Poundstretcher, as well as Britain’s major supermarket chains.
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Last year, the British discounter recorded roughly €2bn of sales.
It employs roughly 18,000 people.
Earlier this week, Pepco Group, the Warsaw-listed retail giant which also trades as Pepco and Dealz in Europe, said Poundland had seen a like-for-like sales slump of 7.3% during the Christmas trading period.
In its trading statement, Pepco said that Poundland had suffered “a more difficult sales environment and consumer backdrop in the UK, alongside margin pressure and an increasingly higher operating cost environment”.
“We expect that the toughest comparative quarter for Poundland is now behind us – the same quarter last year represented a period prior to the changes made within our clothing and GM [general merchandise] ranges – and therefore, we expect the negative sales performance for Poundland to moderate as we move through the year.”
It added that Poundland would not increase the size of its store portfolio on a net basis during the course of this year.
“We are continuing a comprehensive assessment of Poundland to recover trading and get the business back to its core strengths, including undertaking a thorough assessment of all costs across the business, as well as evaluating its overall competitive positioning,” it added.
The appointment of AlixPartners came several weeks after Stephan Borchert, the Pepco Group chief executive, said he would consider “every strategic option” for reviving Poundland’s performance.
He is expected to set out formal plans for the future of Poundland, along with the rest of the group, at a capital markets day in Poland on 6 March.
Among the measures the company has already taken to halt the chain’s declining performance have been to increase the range of FMCG and general merchandise products sold at its traditional £1 price-point.
Poundland’s crisis contrasts with the health of the rest of the group, with Pepco and Dealz both showing strong sales growth.
A spokesman for Pepco Group, which has a market capitalisation equivalent to about £1.7bn, declined to comment further on the appointment of advisers
The weakened pound has boosted many of the 100 companies forming the top-flight index.
Why is this happening?
Most are not based in the UK, so a less valuable pound means their sterling-priced shares are cheaper to buy for people using other currencies, typically US dollars.
This makes the shares better value, prompting more to be bought. This greater demand has brought up the prices and the FTSE 100.
The pound has been hovering below $1.22 for much of Friday. It’s steadily fallen from being worth $1.34 in late September.
Also spurring the new record are market expectations for more interest rate cuts in 2025, something which would make borrowing cheaper and likely kickstart spending.
What is the FTSE 100?
The index is made up of many mining and international oil and gas companies, as well as household name UK banks and supermarkets.
Familiar to a UK audience are lenders such as Barclays, Natwest, HSBC and Lloyds and supermarket chains Tesco, Marks & Spencer and Sainsbury’s.
Other well-known names include Rolls-Royce, Unilever, easyJet, BT Group and Next.
If a company’s share price drops significantly it can slip outside of the FTSE 100 and into the larger and more UK-based FTSE 250 index.
The inverse works for the FTSE 250 companies, the 101st to 250th most valuable firms on the London Stock Exchange. If their share price rises significantly they could move into the FTSE 100.
A good close for markets
It’s a good end of the week for markets, entirely reversing the rise in borrowing costs that plagued Chancellor Rachel Reeves for the past ten days.
Fears of long-lasting high borrowing costs drove speculation she would have to cut spending to meet self-imposed fiscal rules to balance the budget and bring down debt by 2030.
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They Treasury tries to calm market nerves late last week
Long-term government borrowing had reached a high not seen since 1998 while the benchmark 10-year cost of government borrowing, as measured by 10-year gilt yields, was at levels last seen around the 2008 financial crisis.
The gilt yield is effectively the interest rate investors demand to lend money to the UK government.
Only the pound has yet to recover the losses incurred during the market turbulence. Without that dropped price, however, the FTSE 100 record may not have happened.
Also acting to reduce sterling value is the chance of more interest rates. Currencies tend to weaken when interest rates are cut.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned against the prospects of a renewed US-led trade war, just days before Donald Trump prepares to begin his second term in the White House.
The world’s lender of last resort used the latest update to its World Economic Outlook (WEO) to lay out a series of consequences for the global outlook in the event Mr Trump carries out his threat to impose tariffs on all imports into the United States.
Canada, Mexico, and China have been singled out for steeper tariffs that could be announced within hours of Monday’s inauguration.
Mr Trump has been clear he plans to pick up where he left off in 2021 by taxing goods coming into the country, making them more expensive, in a bid to protect US industry and jobs.
He has denied reports that a plan for universal tariffs is set to be watered down, with bond markets recently reflecting higher domestic inflation risks this year as a result.
While not calling out Mr Trump explicitly, the key passage in the IMF’s report nevertheless cautioned: “An intensification of protectionist policies… in the form of a new wave of tariffs, could exacerbate trade tensions, lower investment, reduce market efficiency, distort trade flows, and again disrupt supply chains.
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Trump’s threat of tariffs explained
“Growth could suffer in both the near and medium term, but at varying degrees across economies.”
In Europe, the EU has reason to be particularly worried about the prospect of tariffs, as the bulk of its trade with the US is in goods.
The majority of the UK’s exports are in services rather than physical products.
The IMF’s report also suggested that the US would likely suffer the least in the event that a new wave of tariffs was enacted due to underlying strengths in the world’s largest economy.
The WEO contained a small upgrade to the UK growth forecast for 2025.
It saw output growth of 1.6% this year – an increase on the 1.5% figure it predicted in October.
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What has Trump done since winning?
Economists see public sector investment by the Labour government providing a boost to growth but a more uncertain path for contributions from the private sector given the budget’s £25bn tax raid on businesses.
Business lobby groups have widely warned of a hit to investment, pay and jobs from April as a result, while major employers, such as retailers, have been most explicit on raising prices to recover some of the hit.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves said of the IMF’s update: “The UK is forecast to be the fastest growing major European economy over the next two years and the only G7 economy, apart from the US, to have its growth forecast upgraded for this year.
“I will go further and faster in my mission for growth through intelligent investment and relentless reform, and deliver on our promise to improve living standards in every part of the UK through the Plan for Change.”