Connect with us

Published

on

The chief executive of Lloyds Banking Group – the UK’s biggest lender – has warned whoever wins the general election that they will not be able to fuel growth by increasing government borrowing.

Charlie Nunn said the UK’s national debt had been forced higher in the last decade and a half due to “massive shocks” such as the global financial crisis, the pandemic, the war in Ukraine and also by some issues specific to the UK economy.

Limits on investment

And, speaking exclusively to Sky News, he said this would limit the next government’s ability to invest.

He said: “We have increased the government debt ratio for the UK. And…we should just accept the government can’t pay its way out of this next stage.

“The US in the last few years has gone up to a… 7.5% government [deficit] to GDP ratio. The US can do that because it’s growing at above 3%, but also it’s [the US dollar] the world’s reserve currency.

Read more
First Universal theme park in Europe to generate ‘£50bn of economic benefits for UK’
Nvidia share price plunge has one major explanation

More on Lloyds

“We don’t have those options in the UK – but what we do need is a really clear plan and set of priorities for the UK. And then…we need to find the right way of getting the very material amount of private money, international and domestic, that is excited about investing in the UK to invest alongside government.

The biggest challenge

“I think we can create that positive momentum for investment in jobs and business growth. And then that will feed through into the economy. That has to be the unlock from these three or four very systemic shocks that the UK economy has experienced in the last 16 years.”

Mr Nunn, who has served on both Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s business council and the British Infrastructure Council launched by the shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves, said this would be the biggest challenge for the next administration.

He added: “When you look at the next few years for the next government, the real issue is how are we going to get investment into the economy – and that investment isn’t going to come from the government. It’s going to have to be crowding in international foreign direct investment, leveraging the banking system to really support customers, investing in their businesses and creating jobs and employment in growth and then supporting other financial institutions and pools of capital like pension funds for that investment.

“So the real focus has to be how do we get some growth going and how do we bring in private money alongside the government to make that difference? And that’s what will give the best outcome for the country, but also the government’s own finances.”

‘Very high’ business sentiment

Mr Nunn, who said business sentiment was “actually very high” at present, said a clear government plan and set of priorities could unlock three things.

He went on: “The first is we need to get more private, both domestically and international investment into the UK to support growth, and that needs to come with some supply-side reforms.

The second is housing. Housing really is an important topic for the UK, from social housing all the way through affordable housing and in the broader housing market. We think you need a 10-year plan to unlock the housing investment that would be needed to really make a difference.

“And then the third thing that we think that could make a difference is focusing on long-term savings and investments, both building financial resilience for businesses and consumers in the UK, but also then how we use those savings, those savings pots, to invest back in the UK economy.

“We think there’s opportunity to do more.”

General view of signage at a branch of Lloyds bank, in London, Britain October 31, 2021. REUTERS/Tom Nicholson
Image:
Pic: Reuters

Investors looking for ‘stability and a plan’

Lloyds is the owner of Halifax, the UK’s biggest mortgage lender, as well as being the UK’s biggest current account provider and one of its biggest players in business banking and credit cards and owner of the life and pensions giant Scottish Widows.

Mr Nunn said that, as chief executive, he met many businesses and was clear what they wanted from the next government.

He went on: “I spend a lot of time with entrepreneurs across the UK, but also big international finance houses, whether they’re pension funds or institutions looking to invest in the UK. The first thing that’s consistent across them is they’re looking for stability and a plan.

“And I think that’s the first thing for a new government, which is to provide that stability and to provide thinking, in some of these areas around infrastructure and housing, which is 10 years thinking not shorter-term thinking. So that’s the first thing they’re looking for.

“The second big theme, which is really consistent, is there are some supply-side issues… which are getting in the way of businesses getting a return on their investments. And obviously, there’s been good discussion around planning around connectivity to the [electricity] grid, around skills. Those are the three topics that businesses always identify.

‘Two to four times longer to get a return on UK investment’

“And what does it mean for investors, whether it’s a business or international investor? Typically, they’ll tell you it takes two to four times longer to get a return on your investment in the UK than it does in other countries of the world. And that’s really where we need to focus.”

Interest rates

Mr Nunn, who in August will mark his third anniversary as chief executive of the black horse bank, said the interest rate cuts from the Bank of England expected later this year would be “beneficial” – but warned homeowners not to expect a return to the ultra-low interest rates seen for most of the last 16 years.

He added: “Of course, the short-term impact of interest rates is going to impact, first of all, the government on the cost of government debt. That will be important. And secondly, it’ll make the cost of borrowing for businesses short term more attractive…that’ll be important.

“In terms of the impact on the broader consumer in the UK, it’ll take longer to feed through. Around mortgages specifically, we’ve just come off a decade where mortgages have been in the 1.5-2.5% range.

Follow Sky News on WhatsApp
Follow Sky News on WhatsApp

Keep up with all the latest news from the UK and around the world by following Sky News

Tap here

“The expectations the market have is that interest rates probably won’t get below 3.5%. And that means mortgages, or the new normal for mortgages, will be in that 3.5-4.5% range, not 1.5-2.5%.

“So there is going to be a higher cost of borrowing in the economy, probably based on what we can see happening at the moment.

“But a reduction in rates will be good for the government’s own capacity to invest and will support the economy and it should be good for business.”

Bank of England proposals

Mr Nunn also questioned proposals for the Bank of England to pay no interest to banks on the reserves they have deposited at the Bank of England – a measure that Reform UK has claimed could raise £40bn that could be used to cut taxes.

The Lloyds chief executive said: “Obviously that will be a political decision and not one that we’ll get directly involved with. The statement from the governor of the Bank of England was an important one in this context…he wouldn’t support it because it would start to undermine monetary policy and specifically how…interest rates feed through into the economy, through the commercial banks, through organisations like Lloyds Banking Group.

“I think that’s a really important consideration. In terms of the quantum of impact, there are various estimates out there, but I think the quantum of impact that’s been talked about is significantly more than I think would be realistic. And so it will be a political choice.

But you really need to look at the integrity of what the Bank of England does and whether or not monetary policy works effectively in the economy.”

Growth through financial regulation

Mr Nunn also said there was an opportunity for a new government to boost the economy through financial regulation, building on the new objectives recently set for financial regulators by the current government, which obliged the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority to enable competitiveness and growth both for the banking sector and the UK economy as a whole.

Stressing he was not calling for a return to the looser regulation seen prior to the financial crisis, he added: “There are choices about how do we help customers take the right level of risk…how do businesses and entrepreneurs take the right level of risk and what can financial services do safely to support that?

“When I look at what the UK is doing relative to other countries, we haven’t had that as a really clear objective and I think there’s more we can do that can untap opportunities for businesses, for families in the UK, over the coming years.”

He said the US and Canada could be a good template for the UK in that respect.

Continue Reading

Business

Jaguar Land Rover production shutdown after cyber attack extended to 1 October

Published

on

By

Jaguar Land Rover production shutdown after cyber attack extended to 1 October

Britain’s largest car manufacturer, Jaguar Land Rover (JLR), faces a prolonged shutdown of its global operations after the company announced an extension of the current closure, which began on 31 August, to at least 1 October.

The extension will cost JLR tens of millions of pounds a day in lost revenue, raise major concerns about companies and jobs in the supply chain, and raise further questions about the vulnerability of UK industry to cyber assaults.

A spokesperson said of the move: “We have made this decision to give clarity for the coming week as we build the timeline for the phased restart of our operations and continue our investigation.

Money latest: I was charged £885 for airport parking error

“Our teams continue to work around the clock alongside cybersecurity specialists, the NCSC and law enforcement to ensure we restart in a safe and secure manner.

“Our focus remains on supporting our customers, suppliers, colleagues, and our retailers who remain open. We fully recognise this is a difficult time for all connected with JLR and we thank everyone for their continued support and patience.”

More than 33,000 people work directly for JLR in the UK, many of them employed on assembly lines in the West Midlands, the largest of which is in Solihull, and a plant at Halewood on Merseyside.

An estimated 200,000 more are employed by several hundred companies in the supply chain, who face a prolonged interruption to trade with what for many will be their largest client.

The “just-in-time” nature of automotive production means that many had little choice but to shut down immediately after JLR announced its closure, and no incentive to resume until it is clear when it will be back in production.

Industry sources estimate that around 25% of suppliers have already taken steps to pause production and lay off workers, many of them by “banking hours” they will have to work in future.

Read more:
More than a quarter of cars sold in August were electric vehicles
FCA considers compensation scheme for car finance scandal – raising payout hopes

Another quarter are expected to make decisions this week, following JLR’s previous announcement that production would be paused until at least Wednesday.

JLR, which produces the Jaguar, Range Rover and Land Rover marques, has also been forced to halt production and assembly at facilities in China, Slovakia, India and Brazil after its IT systems were effectively disabled by the cyber attack.

JLR’s Solihull plant has been running short shifts with skeleton staff, with some teams understood to be carrying out basic maintenance while the production lines stand idle, including painting floors.

Among workers who had finished a half-shift last Friday, there was resignation to the uncertainty. “We have been told not to talk about it, and even if we could, we don’t know what’s happening,” said one.

Calls for support

The government has faced calls from unions to introduce a furlough-style scheme to protect jobs in the supply chain, but with JLR generating profits of £2.2bn last year, the company will face pressure to support its suppliers.

Industry body the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders said while government support should be the last resort, it should not be off the table.

“Whatever happens to JLR will reverberate through the supply chain,” chief executive Mike Hawes told Sky News.

“There are a huge number of suppliers in the UK, a mixture of large multinationals, but also a lot of small and medium-sized enterprises, and those are the ones who are most at risk. Some of them, maybe up to a quarter, have already had to lay off people. There’ll be another further 20-25% considering that in the next few days and weeks.

“It’s a very high bar for the government to intervene, but without the supply chain, you don’t have the major manufacturers and you don’t have an industry.”

What happened to the IT system?

JLR, owned by Indian conglomerate Tata, has provided no detail of the nature of the attack, but it is presumed to be a ransomware assault similar to that which debilitated Marks and Spencer and the Co-Op earlier this year.

As well as interrupting vehicle production, dealers have been unable to register vehicles or order spare parts, and even diagnostic software for analysing individual vehicles has been affected.

Last week, it said it was conducting a “forensic” investigation and considering how to stage the “controlled restart” of global production.

Speculation has centred on the vulnerability of IT support desks to surreptitious activity from hackers posing as employees to access passwords, as well as ‘phishing’ or other digital means of accessing systems.

In September 2023, JLR outsourced its IT and digital services to Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), also a Tata-owned company, intended, it said, to “transform, simplify, and help manage its digital estate, and build a new future-ready, strategic technology architecture”.

Resilience risks

Three months earlier, TCS extended an existing agreement with M&S, saying it would “improve resilience and pace of innovation, and drive sustainable growth.”

Officials from the National Cyber Security Centre are thought to be assisting JLR with their investigations, while officials and ministers from the Department for Business and International Trade have been kept informed of the situation.

Liam Byrne, a Birmingham MP and chair of the Business and Trade Select Committee, said the JLR closure raises concerns about the resilience of UK business.

“British business is now much more vulnerable for two reasons. One, many of these cyber threats have got bad states behind them. Russia, North Korea, Iran. These are serious players.

“Second, the attack surface that business is exposed to is now much bigger, because their digital operations are much bigger. They’ll be global organisations. They might have their IT outsourced in another country. So the vulnerability is now much greater than in the past.”

Continue Reading

Business

Rachel Reeves urged to cut national insurance and hike income tax in upcoming budget

Published

on

By

Rachel Reeves urged to cut national insurance and hike income tax in upcoming budget

Rachel Reeves has been urged by a think tank to cut national insurance and increase income tax to create a “level playing field” and protect workers’ pay.

The Resolution Foundation said the chancellor should send a “decisive signal” that she will make “tough decisions” on tax.

Ms Reeves is expected to outline significant tax rises in the upcoming budget in November.

The Resolution Foundation has suggested these changes should include a 2p cut to national insurance as well as a 2p rise in income tax, which Adam Corlett, its principal economist, said “should form part of wider efforts to level the playing field on tax”.

The think tank, which used to be headed by Torsten Bell, a Labour MP who is now a key aide to Ms Reeves and a pensions minister, said the move would help to address “unfairness” in the tax system.

As more people pay income tax than national insurance, including pensioners and landlords, the think tank estimates the switch would go some way in raising the £20bn in tax it thinks would be needed by 2029/2030 to offset increased borrowing costs, flat growth and new spending commitments. Other estimates go as high as £51bn.

Torsten Bell appearing on Sky News
Image:
Torsten Bell appearing on Sky News

‘Significant tax rises needed’

Another proposal by the think tank would see a gradual lowering of the threshold at which businesses pay VAT from £90,000 to £30,000, as this would help “promote fair competition” and raise £2bn by the end of the decade.

The Resolution Foundation also recommends increasing the tax on dividends, addressing a “worrying” growth in unpaid corporation tax from small businesses, applying a carbon charge to long-haul flights and shipping, and expanding taxation of sugar and salt.

“Policy U-turns, higher borrowing costs and lower productivity growth mean that the chancellor will need to act to avoid borrowing costs rising even further this autumn,” Mr Corlett said.

“Significant tax rises will be needed for the chancellor to send a clear signal that the UK’s public finances are under control.”

He added that while any tax rises are “likely to be painful”, Ms Reeves should do “all she can to avoid loading further pain onto workers’ pay packets”.

The government has repeatedly insisted it will keep its manifesto promise not to raise income tax, national insurance or VAT.

A Treasury spokesperson said in response to the think tank report it does “not comment on speculation around future changes to tax policy”.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Is Britain heading towards a new financial crisis?

Chancellor urged to freeze alcohol duty

Meanwhile, Ms Reeves has been urged to freeze alcohol duty in the upcoming budget and not increase the rate of excise tax on alcohol until the end of the current parliament.

The Scotch Whisky Association (SWA), UK Spirits Alliance, Welsh Whisky Association, English Whisky Guild and Drinks Ireland said in an open letter that the current regime was “unfair” and has put a “strain” on members who are “struggling”.

The bodies are also urging Ms Reeves “to ensure there will be no further widening of the tax differential between spirits and other alcohol categories”.

A Treasury spokesperson said there will be no export duty, lower licensing fees, reduced tariffs, and a cap on corporation tax to make it easier for British distilleries to thrive.

Leave retailers alone, Reeves told

This comes as the British Retail Consortium (BRC) warned that food inflation will rise and remain above 5% into next year if the retail industry is hit by further tax rises in the November budget.

The BRC voiced concerns that around 4,000 large shops could experience a rise in their business rates if they are included in the government’s new surtax for properties with a rateable value – an estimation of how much it would cost to rent a property for a year – over £500,000, and this could lead to price rises for consumers.

Read more:
Food inflation at 18-month high
Stealth’ and ‘sin’ taxes expected to rise
Firms cut jobs at fastest pace since 2021

Latest ONS figures put food inflation at 4.9%, the highest level since 2022/2023.

The Bank of England left the interest rate unchanged last week amid fears that rising food prices were putting mounting pressure on headline inflation.

“The biggest risk to food prices would be to include large shops – including supermarkets – in the new surtax on large properties,” BRC chief executive Helen Dickinson said.

She added: “Removing all shops from the surtax can be done without any cost to the taxpayer, and would demonstrate the chancellor’s commitment to bring down inflation.”

Continue Reading

Business

Bodycare to close 56 remaining stores – with nearly 450 to be made redundant

Published

on

By

Bodycare to close 56 remaining stores - with nearly 450 to be made redundant

High Street beauty chain Bodycare is to close its 56 remaining stores, resulting in 444 redundancies, administrators have said.

Last week it announced the closure of 30 shops, having collapsed into administration earlier this month.

A shortage of stock and the cost of running stores meant it was no longer viable to keep its 115 stores open, administrators said at the time.

This breaking news story is being updated and more details will be published shortly.

Please refresh the page for the latest version.

You can receive breaking news alerts on a smartphone or tablet via the Sky News app. You can also follow us on WhatsApp and subscribe to our YouTube channel to keep up with the latest news.

Continue Reading

Trending