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Britain could soon have its most diverse parliament ever but how will voters from ethnically diverse communities behave at the ballot box?

The voting trends of such groups are incredibly complex and varied. There is no single narrative but several themes stick out from YouGov’s exclusive polling for Sky News.

Most notably, the handling of the conflict in the Middle East has damaged the two major parties in the eyes of British Pakistani and Bangladeshi communities. This is something the Labour Party, in particular, is very sensitive too.

Labour have historically fared well with these voters and 53% of ethnic minority voters we polled said they would vote for the party – that’s a greater lead than polls we’ve done with the general population.

However, the Tories fare worse among ethnic minority voters on the whole – in this poll they are neck and neck with the Green Party at 14%.

But, if we drill into the detail, 32% of British Indians said they would vote Conservative – 12% higher than the general population. This is a good reminder that there is a huge variation in voting trends among communities.

Reform UK polled much worse with ethnically diverse communities than the population at large – they’re on 7% – but they’re still one point above the Lib Dems.

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Political priorities

When it comes to the issues ethnically diverse voters care most about – it’s not that different to society as a whole.

The cost of living is the highest priority for the voters we polled. In the dataset representing the general population, the NHS comes up top, and the cost of living is second.

Political priorities
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Political priorities

The starkest difference is on housing which ranks much higher for the group made up of ethnic minorities.

The conflict in Gaza and Israel also polled higher – which 41% of British Pakistanis and Bangladeshis marked as a priority.

The ‘Gaza Effect’

Looking in detail at the Labour Party’s record, more than half of all ethnically diverse voters we polled think Labour have dealt with the war in Israel and Gaza badly – that’s higher than the general population, 47% of whom felt the party had dealt with the conflict badly.

But within the Pakistani and Bangladeshi community, a stark 78% don’t think Labour has performed well – despite the party now calling for a ceasefire.

This is what polling experts are calling a “Gaza Effect”.

The Gaza Effect
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The Gaza Effect

Although the party’s foreign policy stance has been damaging, it’s important to note that overall support for Labour among ethnically diverse communities, including Pakistanis and Bangladeshis is still higher than it is across the population as a whole.

But the party isn’t being complacent.

Labour’s campaign app has been directing activists to help defend 16 constituencies, most of which have majority diverse communities.

Gaza effect
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Gaza effect

One seat on that list is surprising – Shabana Mahmood’s constituency of Birmingham Ladywood.

It should be one of Labour’s safest seats in the UK – with a majority of over 28,000 votes, but with a high number of voters who care passionately about the conflict in the Middle East, Labour now appear to now be campaigning defensively here.

Read more:
Starmer plays down Bangladesh row

Are you two the best candidates for PM?
Final leader’s debate ‘ends in draw’

While the overall scale of the impact is almost impossible to predict, and the sentiment represented by these figures doesn’t necessarily translate into votes or even seats, what is clear is that Labour support in some areas with high numbers of ethnically diverse communities could be waning long term.

And that could be a much bigger problem for the party if – as the polls suggest – they make it into government.

It is understood that the Labour Party has called for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, as well as the immediate release of all hostages, and unimpeded humanitarian access into Gaza.

Candidates standing in the Birmingham Ladywood Constituency

Zoe Challenor: Green Party

Lee Dargue: Liberal Democrats

Shabana Mahmood: Labour Party

Shazna Muzammil: Conservative and Unionist Party

Akhmed Yakoob: Independent

Irene Yoong-Henery: Reform UK

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‘Gravely concerning’ claims of Russian interference in general election to spread support for Farage’s Reform

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'Gravely concerning' claims of Russian interference in general election to spread support for Farage's Reform

Claims of Russian interference in the general election campaign are “gravely concerning”, the deputy prime minister has said.

Mr Dowden told Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips that Moscow allegedly using Facebook pages to spread support for Nigel Farage “is a classic example from the Russian playbook”.

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The Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) says it has been monitoring five co-ordinated Facebook pages which have been spouting Kremlin talking points, with some posting in support of Reform UK.

Mr Dowden, who has called the ABC report “gravely concerning”, told Sky News: “This is something that I’ve warned about for some time.

“There is a threat in all elections, and indeed we see it in this election, from hostile state actors seeking to influence the outcome of the election campaign.

“Russia is a prime example of this and this is a classic example from the Russian playbook.”

He added that this was a “low-level use of bots”.

Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a sign docs ceremony during his meeting with King of Bahrain, Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, 23 May 2024. King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa of Bahrain is on an official visit to Russia. YURI KOCHETKOV/Pool via REUTERS
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Russian President Vladimir Putin. Pic: Reuters

Mr Dowden earlier told The Sunday Times: “These revelations reveal the real risk our democracy faces in this uncertain world.

“Malign foreign actors, promoting British political parties, policies and views that fit their agenda is just another example of the challenges in the increasingly volatile cyberspace of the 21st century and is gravely concerning to see during an election campaign.”

The newspaper reported that Conservative chairman Richard Holden has written to Simon Case, the cabinet secretary, and Sir Tim Barrow, the national security adviser, asking for the claims to be investigated.

Read more:
Farage speech interrupted by Putin banner
‘You wouldn’t believe the amount of dicks’: Secrets of a ballot counter

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According to ABC, the pages appeared to have little in common but were linked through an examination of the location data attached to the pages’ administrators, the tracking of paid ads, and an analysis of the pages’ similar or shared content.

The network of pages has a combined 190,000 followers, each featuring criticism of several UK political parties, including the Conservatives and Labour, the ABC says.

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The broadcaster also reportedly found most of the administrators for each page are based in Nigeria, which is a significant connection as previous online Russian propaganda networks were found to have been operating from Africa.

The reports come after Mr Farage faced a backlash for saying he blames the West and NATO for the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Mr Farage called it “cobblers” to claim bots generated by foreign state actors could interfere with the election outcome – as he launched a personal attack on Mr Dowden.

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Farage says he is not’ fanning flames’

Asked about the deputy PM’s comments, he told Trevor Phillips: “Oh, don’t talk cobblers.

“I mean you had this bland fellow on earlier who apparently is the deputy prime minister, who no one knows who he is, and there he is saying, ‘oh, there are Russian bots involved’.

“Hang on, did you ask him how many millions of pounds his party have taken from Russian sources over the course of the last few years?

“This is the Russia hoax.”

Mr Farage went on to describe Russian President Vladimir Putin as a “very, very dangerous” man.

“I abhor what he’s done in Ukraine. Totally and utterly,” he said.

“But I was far sighted. I saw this coming.”

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Labour would cause ‘irreversible damage within first 100 days’ in power, Rishi Sunak claims

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Labour would cause 'irreversible damage within first 100 days' in power, Rishi Sunak claims

Leaders and politicians of all parties are coming out swinging today as the general election campaign enters the final days.

Rishi Sunak is today saying that Labour would cause “irreversible damage within just 100 days of coming to power”, while his top lieutenants warn of the “danger” of a government led by Sir Keir Starmer.

With polls throughout the campaign showing the Conservative Party failing to make a dent in Labour’s 21-point lead, according to the Sky News Poll Tracker, the prime minister only has days to change minds across the country in his bid to retain power.

Meanwhile, the Labour leader is arguing that if the Conservatives are re-elected, “they will feel entitled to continue serving themselves, rather than putting the needs of our country first”.

Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey is continuing to promote his party’s proposals for the NHS, while SNP leader John Swinney is arguing that the Scottish public should “vote SNP to put Scotland’s interests first”.

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Sunak says Labour ‘cannot be trusted’

The Conservative Party is continuing its warning that a Labour government would see taxes rise, and the prime minister is arguing electing Sir Keir would do “irreversible damage within just 100 days of coming to power”.

Mr Sunak said that Labour’s plans to impose VAT on private school fees would risk “throwing thousands of families’ plans for the autumn term into chaos, with children wondering if they will have a desk at school to go back to”.

And he also claimed that Labour would make Britain the “soft touch migrant capital of the world” with “open borders” and an “illegal migrant amnesty”.

The prime minister added: “They cannot be trusted. We must not surrender our taxes, our borders and our security to them. Only the Conservatives will deliver tax cuts, a growing economy and a brighter, more secure future for everyone.”

Rishi Sunak at BAPS Shri Swaminarayan Mandir in North West London. Pic: PA
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Rishi Sunak speaking at a Hindu temple in northwest London on Saturday. Pic: PA

Foreign Secretary Lord Cameron went further in an interview with The Sunday Times, suggesting that a Labour government would be a threat to national security.

He told the newspaper that Sir Keir “is in danger of weakening Britain’s position and weakening Britain’s defences, all in a way that’s completely unnecessary”.

The ex-prime minister described Labour as “hopelessly naive about the dangerous world in which we’re living”, adding: “The last thing we need in Britain now is another liberal leftie lawyer running the country.”

But Sir Keir hit back, noting that the government has already given him “high level sensitive briefings, so much do they trust us on national security”.

“To now turn around and make this ridiculous claim just shows how desperate they have become going into this election,” he added.

Starmer appeals for ‘clear mandate’ to govern

The Labour leader and the potential next chancellor, Rachel Reeves, also spoke to The Sunday Times, and they talked about their goal of getting housebuilding ramping up “on day one” if they win the election.

Keir Starmer, with his wife Victoria and Angela Rayner, at the Royal Horticultural Halls in central London. Pic: PA
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Keir Starmer with wife Victoria (right) and deputy Labour leader Angela Rayner at the Royal Horticultural Halls in central London on Saturday. Pic: PA

The newspaper reports that at least three housing announcements are expected to be made within the first fortnight of a Labour government, saying that opportunities for young people from working-class backgrounds to own their own home “don’t exist”.

And in an article for The Observer, Sir Keir wrote that if voters elect Labour on Thursday, “the work of change begins” and they will “get to work on repairing our public services with an immediate cash injection, alongside urgent reforms”.

He also attacked the Tories’ record in power, saying if they are re-elected, “Britain will remain stuck in their low-growth, high-tax, declining public services doom-loop”.

“The unfunded splurge contained in their manifesto will unleash chaos into our economy once again. And they will feel entitled to continue serving themselves, rather than putting the needs of our country first,” he added.

“Frankly, should they win another five years after everything they’ve put us through in this parliament, they would surely think they could get away with anything.”

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What do voters think of manifestos?

He appealed for a “clear mandate” to implement his plans, pointing to “chaos” under Mr Sunak and Liz Truss before him as examples of what happens when prime ministers seek to “govern without that mandate”.

Read more:
What the polls tell us about what will happen on 4 July
What are in the party manifestos?

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SNP ‘offers hope of better future’

Meanwhile in Scotland, the leader of the SNP is appealing to Scots to back his party as polls show that Labour could become the largest Scottish parliamentary contingent in over a decade.

John Swinney argued that while “the result in England is now inevitable”, in “most seats in Scotland it’s too close to call between the SNP and Labour”.

John Swinney joins SNP candidate Tommy Sheppard and serves pizza at Portobello Beach and Promenade. Pic: PA
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SNP leader John Swinney (right) and SNP candidate Tommy Sheppard serve pizza at Portobello Beach and Promenade, Edinburgh. Pic: PA

He hit out at the Labour Party, saying a Starmer government “plans to impose £18bn of cuts to public spending – after years of austerity, Brexit and the ongoing cost of living crisis”.

To avoid that, he said, and to “ensure that decisions about Scotland are made in Scotland, then you’ve got to vote SNP”.

“The SNP offers Scotland the hope of a better future – but you have to vote for it. This Thursday, vote SNP to put Scotland’s interests first,” he added.

Tories have ‘failed’ to support families in grief

The Liberal Democrats are continuing to unveil policies, focused on the NHS and reversing “heartless Tory cuts” to bereavement payments.

On the latter as it stands, a bereaved family where a spouse or partner has died receives a lump sum of up to £3,500, followed by a monthly payment of up to £350 for 18 months.

Sir Ed Davey tries his hand at archery in Little Paxton, Cambridgeshire. Pic: PA
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Sir Ed Davey tries his hand at archery in Little Paxton, Cambridgeshire. Pic: PA

The party is calling for this period to be extended, and is pledging to inject an additional £440m a year into the system by 2028-29 to fund it.

Sir Ed Davey said in a statement: “Rishi Sunak’s government has failed to ensure families are not left struggling to pay the bills at such a difficult period of time.

“The Liberal Democrats would treat families and children who lose a loved one with dignity and provide the support they deserve.”

He also reiterated his party’s pledge to give people a legal right to see a GP within a week and start cancer treatment within two months, with Sir Ed saying that his party has “put health and care at the heart of our fair deal for the country”.

Farage goes on the attack

Meanwhile, Reform UK is on the offensive after facing a slew of racism allegations over recent days.

Nigel Farage during a BBC Question Time Leaders' Special at the Midlands Arts Centre in Birmingham. Pic: PA
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Nigel Farage during a BBC Question Time Leaders’ Special at the Midlands Arts Centre in Birmingham. Pic: PA

The party yesterday withdrew support for three candidates, and it came on the heels of Channel 4 news airing footage filmed undercover that showed Andrew Parker, an activist canvassing for Mr Farage, using the racial slur “P***” to describe the prime minister, describing Islam as a “disgusting cult”, and saying the army should “just shoot” migrants crossing the Channel.

Nigel Farage has gone on the attack, with the party saying it has reported Channel 4 to the elections watchdog for alleged “scandalous… interference” over what the party claims was a fake rant planted by the broadcaster.

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The key election words you need to know

Mr Farage also hit out at the BBC, saying he would refuse to appear on their flagship Sunday morning show until they apologise for their “dishonest” audience during a BBC Question Time special on Friday, accusing the broadcaster of having “behaved like a political actor throughout this election”.

He will hold a vast rally in Birmingham later today, after speaking to Sky News from Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips at 8.30am.

Reform UK leader Nigel Farage will be joining Sky News’ Trevor Philips from 8.30am this morning on his last programme before the election – along with Deputy Prime Minister Oliver Dowden, Labour’s national campaign coordinator Pat McFadden, and SNP leader and Scottish First Minister John Swinney.

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Reform UK drops three candidates as racism row continues to engulf party

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Reform UK drops three candidates as racism row continues to engulf party

Reform UK has withdrawn support from three of its parliamentary candidates as the racism row engulfing the party continues to grow.

The party led by Nigel Farage is no longer supporting Edward Oakenfull, who is standing in Derbyshire Dales, Robert Lomas, a candidate in Barnsley North, and Leslie Lilley, standing in Southend East and Rochford, after alleged comments made by them emerged in the media.

It comes as party leaders from across the political spectrum have lined up to condemn Reform UK, and told Mr Farage he needs to “get a grip” of his party.

Oakenfull has been suspended after reportedly having written social media posts about the IQ of sub-Saharan Africans – which he told the BBC were “taken out of context”.

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Meanwhile, Lomas said black people should “get off [their] lazy arses” and stop acting “like savages”, The Times reported.

Lilley, according to the newspaper, described people arriving on small boats as “scum”, adding: “I hope your family get robbed, beaten or attacked.”

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As the registration deadline for candidates has passed, all three candidates will remain on the ballot paper, despite no longer being endorsed by Reform UK.

Racism row

The decision to drop these candidates comes amid a vast row about racism in the party after Channel 4 news aired footage filmed undercover that showed Andrew Parker, an activist canvassing for Mr Farage, using the racial slur “P***” to describe the prime minister, describing Islam as a “disgusting cult”, and saying the army should “just shoot” migrants crossing the Channel.

Reform UK was condemned by party leaders across the political spectrum, and Rishi Sunak reacted furiously to the comments, saying Mr Farage had “some questions to answer”.

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Sunak ‘hurt’ over Reform race row

He said: “My two daughters have to see and hear Reform people who campaign for Nigel Farage calling me an effing P***. It hurts and it makes me angry and I think he has some questions to answer.

“And I don’t repeat those words lightly. I do so deliberately because this is too important not to call out clearly for what it is.”

Parker has told Sky News he was a “total fool”, that he has learned his lesson, and there was “no racism” in what he said.

Reform UK has said it has reported Channel 4 to the elections watchdog for alleged “scandalous… interference” over what the party claims was a fake rant planted by the broadcaster.

The broadcaster has rejected the allegations out of hand, saying: “We strongly stand by our rigorous and duly impartial journalism which speaks for itself. We met Mr Parker for the first time at Reform UK party headquarters, where he was a Reform party canvasser.

“We did not pay the Reform UK canvasser or anyone else in this report. Mr Parker was not known to Channel 4 News and was filmed covertly via the undercover operation.”

The Electoral Commission said they were “aware of reports” that Reform UK had asked them to investigate.

But the commission said it had “not received such a letter”, adding that it would “consider [the letter’s] contents” if it did.

A spokesperson for the commission said Channel 4 News was exempt from its regulation as it is a licensed broadcaster.

They said any laws surrounding the potential defamation of candidates would be a matter for the police.

Questions to answer

Mr Farage faced a slew of questions on the row during a BBC Question Time Leaders’ Special on Friday night, during which he said he was “not going to apologise” for the actions of people associated with his party.

Asked why his party “attracts racists and extremists”, the former UKIP leader claimed he had “done more to drive the far right out of British politics than anybody else alive” – claiming he took on the British Nationalist Party (BNP) a decade ago.

He also appeared to throw his predecessor Richard Tice under the bus when read racist and xenophobic comments made by Reform candidates, saying he “inherited a start-up party” and has “no idea” why the people who said those things had been selected.

Mr Farage has today lashed out at the BBC as well, saying he is refusing to appear on the broadcaster’s Sunday morning politics show with Laura Kuenssberg until they apologise for their “dishonest” audience, accusing the broadcaster of having “behaved like a political actor throughout this election”.

But the right-wing firebrand has been condemned by all party leaders.

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‘Leaders have to set the tone’

Sir Keir Starmer told Sky News Mr Farage must “set the tone” for his party, adding: “It’s no good Nigel Farage after the event saying that he doesn’t agree with certain comments.”

The Labour leader went on to insist Mr Farage is “not a spectator” – but is the leader of Reform UK.

He added: “Leaders have to set the tone, set the standards and take the action so that people know in advance what is acceptable and what’s not acceptable.

What Reform attacks say about Nigel Farage’s mindset


Rob Powell Political reporter

Rob Powell

Political correspondent

@robpowellnews

Even by Reform’s standards, the frequency and ferocity of attacks flying out from the party has stepped up today.

We’ve had complaints going into Ofcom, the Electoral Commission and Essex Police.

The BBC boycotted; Channel 4 reported and a former campaigner cut adrift.

This tells you more about Nigel Farage’s mindset than his decision to suspend three candidates over online posts.

So five days from the election, will these seemingly rolling controversies shift many votes?

Much like the row over the Reform leader’s comments on Russia and Putin, that probably depends on how fully signed up you are the party’s agenda.

For the die-hards, talk of an establishment stitch-up will find sympathetic and supportive ears.

But wavering Tories dabbling with Reform may be queasier about all this talk of racism and a big media conspiracy.

One final point.

A fortnight ago, Nigel Farage demanded to be treated as one of the big players in this election citing a poll putting him ahead of the Tories.

But with more coverage comes more scrutiny.

You can construct a fair argument that’s exactly what Reform has been exposed to in the last week.

‘Get a grip’

Labour’s shadow defence secretary told Sky News Mr Farage should “get a grip” of his party amid the racism allegations.

John Healey said: “To some extent, I see him fuelling a row over this Channel 4 film to distract, really, from the fact that there are officials and there are candidates right at the heart of the Reform party, that have been responsible for racist, anti-gay, and other deeply offensive statements.

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Farage ‘needs to get a grip’ of Reform

“And it’s for Farage to take action on them. And in the end, the culture and the standards of any political party are set by the leader and Nigel Farage wants to be seen as a leader.

“He needs to get a grip of his own party and he’s failing to do that at the moment.”

Scotland’s first minister, John Swinney, said of Reform’s politics: “I deplore it. I deprecate it. I want nothing to do with it.”

“We will always rail against racist and homophobic comments, and I can’t believe that there’s a single thing Nigel Farage can do to control a problem that he himself has started,” he said.

The SNP leader went on to claim that this is not a case of bad apples, but “an ingrained problem of Reform”.

Read more:
Police ‘urgently assessing’ racist comments by Reform activists
Reform candidates accused of ‘antisemitic’ posts
Reform canvasser says he was ‘a total fool’

He said: “Nigel Farage has set this all up. He has stoked it all. With every word over all these years, he has incited all that intolerance and prejudice in our society.

“I want to have nothing to do with it. And I don’t think there’s anything Nigel Farage can do to stop it, because he created it.”

The leader of the Liberal Democrats, Sir Ed Davey, said his members and candidates “share no values with Mr Farage”.

“He can sort himself out. My job as a Liberal Democrat leader is to tell you what we’re about.”

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Here is the full list of candidates standing in the Derbyshire Dales constituency:

  • Kelda Boothroyd, Green Party
  • Robert Court, Liberal Democrats
  • Sarah Dines, Conservative Party
  • Rachel Elnaugh-Love, Independent
  • Edward Hudson Oakenfull, formerly Reform UK
  • Helen Wetherall, True and Fair Party
  • John Whitby, Labour Party

Here is the full list of candidates standing in Barnsley North:

  • Penny Baker, Liberal Democrats
  • Tony Devoy, Yorkshire Party
  • Neil Fisher, Independent
  • Tom Heyes, Green Party
  • Dan Jarvis, Labour Party
  • Tamas Kovacs, Conservative Party
  • Robert Lomas, formerly Reform UK
  • Janus Polenceusz, English Democrats

Here is the full list of candidates standing in Southend East and Rochford:

  • Bayo Alaba, Labour Party
  • James Joseph Allen, Liberal Democrats
  • Lee John Clark, Confelicity
  • Simon Cross, Green Party
  • Gavin Haran, Conservative Party
  • Bianca Eleanor Isherwood, Heritage Party
  • Leslie Lilley, formerly Reform UK

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