General Election 2024: How will Britain’s ethnically diverse communities vote?

Published

10 months ago

June 28, 2024

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Britain could soon have its most diverse parliament ever but how will voters from ethnically diverse communities behave at the ballot box?

The voting trends of such groups are incredibly complex and varied. There is no single narrative but several themes stick out from YouGov’s exclusive polling for Sky News.

Most notably, the handling of the conflict in the Middle East has damaged the two major parties in the eyes of British Pakistani and Bangladeshi communities. This is something the Labour Party, in particular, is very sensitive too.

Labour have historically fared well with these voters and 53% of ethnic minority voters we polled said they would vote for the party – that’s a greater lead than polls we’ve done with the general population.

However, the Tories fare worse among ethnic minority voters on the whole – in this poll they are neck and neck with the Green Party at 14%.

But, if we drill into the detail, 32% of British Indians said they would vote Conservative – 12% higher than the general population. This is a good reminder that there is a huge variation in voting trends among communities.

Reform UK polled much worse with ethnically diverse communities than the population at large – they’re on 7% – but they’re still one point above the Lib Dems.

Political priorities

When it comes to the issues ethnically diverse voters care most about – it’s not that different to society as a whole.

The cost of living is the highest priority for the voters we polled. In the dataset representing the general population, the NHS comes up top, and the cost of living is second.

The starkest difference is on housing which ranks much higher for the group made up of ethnic minorities.

The conflict in Gaza and Israel also polled higher – which 41% of British Pakistanis and Bangladeshis marked as a priority.

The ‘Gaza Effect’

Looking in detail at the Labour Party’s record, more than half of all ethnically diverse voters we polled think Labour have dealt with the war in Israel and Gaza badly – that’s higher than the general population, 47% of whom felt the party had dealt with the conflict badly.

But within the Pakistani and Bangladeshi community, a stark 78% don’t think Labour has performed well – despite the party now calling for a ceasefire.

This is what polling experts are calling a “Gaza Effect”.

Although the party’s foreign policy stance has been damaging, it’s important to note that overall support for Labour among ethnically diverse communities, including Pakistanis and Bangladeshis is still higher than it is across the population as a whole.

But the party isn’t being complacent.

Labour’s campaign app has been directing activists to help defend 16 constituencies, most of which have majority diverse communities.

One seat on that list is surprising – Shabana Mahmood’s constituency of Birmingham Ladywood.

It should be one of Labour’s safest seats in the UK – with a majority of over 28,000 votes, but with a high number of voters who care passionately about the conflict in the Middle East, Labour now appear to now be campaigning defensively here.

While the overall scale of the impact is almost impossible to predict, and the sentiment represented by these figures doesn’t necessarily translate into votes or even seats, what is clear is that Labour support in some areas with high numbers of ethnically diverse communities could be waning long term.

And that could be a much bigger problem for the party if – as the polls suggest – they make it into government.

It is understood that the Labour Party has called for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, as well as the immediate release of all hostages, and unimpeded humanitarian access into Gaza.

Candidates standing in the Birmingham Ladywood Constituency

Zoe Challenor: Green Party

Lee Dargue: Liberal Democrats

Shabana Mahmood: Labour Party

Shazna Muzammil: Conservative and Unionist Party

Akhmed Yakoob: Independent

Irene Yoong-Henery: Reform UK

Politics

Polymarket bets on Mark Carney win as Canadians head to the polls

Published

4 hours ago

April 28, 2025

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Polymarket bets on Mark Carney win as Canadians head to the polls

Crypto users betting on the outcome of the snap election to determine the next Prime Minister of Canada appear to be favoring a Liberal Party victory as residents head to cast their votes.

As of April 28, cryptocurrency betting platform Polymarket gave current Canadian Prime Minister and Liberal Party candidate Mark Carney a 79% chance of defeating Conservative Party candidate Pierre Poilievre in the race for the country’s next PM. Data from the platform showed users had poured more than $75 million into bets surrounding the race, predicting a Poilievre or Carney victory.

Canada, Betting, Voting, Elections — *Polymarket chances favor the Liberal Party’s Mark Carney over the Conservative Party’s Pierre Poilievre to be the next Canadian Prime Minister. Source:* *Polymarket*

The odds suggested by the platform, as well as those from many polls, show a nearly complete reversal of fortunes between the two candidates after former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau resigned in January. Trudeau and, by association, many in the Liberal Party, faced criticism over the handling of Canada’s housing crisis and questions about how he would face US President Donald Trump’s then-proposed tariffs.

Following Trudeau’s resignation, Trump stepped up rhetoric disparaging Canada, repeatedly referring to the country as the US’s “51st state” and Trudeau as its “governor.” The US President also imposed a 25% tariff on goods imported from Canada in March. The policies seem to have led to increasing anti-Trump sentiment in Canada, with many residents booing the US national anthem at hockey games and making comparisons between the president and Poilievre.

This is a developing story, and further information will be added as it becomes available.

Politics

Small boat crossings pass 10,000 at earliest point in year since records began, Sky News understands

Published

5 hours ago

April 28, 2025

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Small boat crossings pass 10,000 at earliest point in year since records began, Sky News understands

Small boat crossings have passed 10,000 in 2025 at the earliest point in a year since records began, Sky News understands.

Analysis of previous Home Office numbers and footage of people arriving today show the number of people crossing the Channel continuing to rise.

The issue has become a lodestone for political parties across the spectrum, with Rishi Sunak’s pledge to “Stop The Boats” falling well short.

Politics latest: PM warns of Tory-Reform pact ‘disaster’

Sir Keir Starmer promised to clear the backlog of asylum applications and “Smash The Gangs” of people smugglers upstream, but critics say he has failed to do this almost a year into his stint in Number Ten.

Reform’s Nigel Farage has made the issue key to his party’s pitch to voters.

The 10,000 figure is understood to have been passed on 28 April. Official figures only go until 27 April at the time of writing, with 9,885 people detected crossing the Channel by the UK government at this point

This compares to 7,167 by the same date in 2024, 5,745 in 2023, 5,352 in 2022, and 1,796 in 2021. Data only started to get collected in 2018, and for the first three years fewer than 1,000 people were observed crossing the Channel before 28 April.

Fine weather conditions are known to lead to an increase in people crossing the Channel, with some efforts earlier this year stymied by heavy winds.

Sir Keir scrapped the Conservative’s Rwanda deportation plan when entering office. In March, the prime minister said his government had “returned” 24,000 people who had no right to be in the UK.

Chris Philp, the shadow home secretary, said: “Britain’s borders are being torn apart under Labour. This year is already the worst on record for small boat crossings after over 10,000 illegal immigrants arrived in Britain, but Labour just sit on their hands.

“Labour scrapped our deterrent before it even started, flung open the door to extremists and criminals, and handed the bill to hardworking taxpayers.

“Under new Conservative leadership, we are serious about tackling this crisis with deliverable reforms, but Labour continue to block these at every turn. Labour’s open-door chaos is a betrayal of the British people, and we will not let them get away with it.”

Mr Philp was part of previous Conservative governments, which also failed to reduce crossings.

Speaking to broadcasters, Mr Farage said: “If this carries on at this rate, by the end of this Labour government another quarter of a million people will have come into this country, many of whom frankly don’t fit our culture or cost us a fortune.”

He claimed that Reform is “the only party” saying that “unless you deport those that come illegally, they will just continue to come”.

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A Home Office spokesperson said: “We all want to end dangerous small boat crossings, which threaten lives and undermine our border security.

“The people-smuggling gangs do not care if the vulnerable people they exploit live or die, as long as they pay and we will stop at nothing to dismantle their business models and bring them to justice.

“That is why this government has put together a serious plan to take down these networks at every stage.

“Through international intelligence sharing under our Border Security Command, enhanced enforcement operations in Northern France and tougher legislation in the Border Security and Asylum Bill, we are strengthening international partnerships and boosting our ability to identify, disrupt, and dismantle criminal gangs whilst strengthening the security of our borders.”

Politics

Stacks Asia expands Bitcoin initiatives with Abu Dhabi partnership

Published

10 hours ago

April 28, 2025

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Stacks Asia expands Bitcoin initiatives with Abu Dhabi partnership

The Stacks Asia DLT Foundation has become the first Bitcoin-based organization to establish an official presence in the Middle East, aiming to promote institutional Bitcoin adoption through expanded educational initiatives.

Stacks Asia has partnered with the Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM) — one of the world’s fastest-growing financial centers — in a move that could boost the adoption of its Bitcoin (BTC) layer-2 (L2) solution in the Middle East and Asia.

The new partnership will play a “pivotal role” in shaping the future of Bitcoin’s “programmability and adoption” in these regions through educational programs and support for Bitcoin builders, according to an April 28 announcement shared with Cointelegraph.

Through the collaboration, Stacks and the ADGM aim to make it easier for institutions and investors to participate in the growing Bitcoin economy and help set “new standards for regulatory clarity and technical growth” for the rising global Bitcoin capital, according to Kyle Ellicott, executive director at Stacks Asia DLT Foundation.

“Stacks and ADGM are a powerful combination for accelerating Bitcoin adoption across the Middle East and Asia,” Ellicott told Cointelegraph, adding:

“ADGM has established itself as a world-class global financial hub at the heart of the United Arab Emirates, known as the ‘Capitol of Capital,’ where capital and innovation are brought together to shape the future financial landscape.”

“We’ll be working to enable the launch of educational programs, regional developer communities, and create opportunities for the real-world adoption of Bitcoin-powered applications,” he said.

Starting in May, the foundation will host a series of live and virtual events to “empower institutions” with the knowledge to integrate Bitcoin into their operations and learn about the “opportunity of productive Bitcoin capital,” Ellicott added.

Stacks Foundation pushing for a “progressive” regulatory environment worldwide

As the leading Bitcoin scalability solution, Stacks is also pushing for progressive global regulations that will cement Bitcoin’s role in the future of the financial landscape.

“We’re not just focused locally — our team is engaged in global conversations, advocating for frameworks that balance decentralization, security, innovation, and compliance surrounding the unlocking of Bitcoin capital,” Ellicott said.

A key part of the strategy involves knowledge sharing with local regulatory bodies to build understanding among government officials about Bitcoin’s characteristics and potential economic impact.

The foundation is also developing the Bitcoin Capital Activation Framework, described as a comprehensive policy blueprint to help regulators enable Bitcoin utility in their jurisdictions.

The Stacks Foundation will also launch the Bitcoin Policy Bridge in May, a working group uniting regulators from all key jurisdictions across the Middle East and Asia.

In February, ADGM signed a memorandum of understanding with the Solana Foundation to advance the development of distributed ledger technology.