Election campaign trails: How party leaders are upping the ante as poll day looms
This week the party leaders made their final pleas to voters. The Labour and Lib Dem leaders visited some of their most ambitious targets so far, while the prime minister took a scattergun approach, fighting for votes in even some of the safest of Tory seats.
Watch their journeys this week in our animated map below.
This campaign is being fought on new electoral boundaries, with many constituencies undergoing significant changes since 2019.
For the purposes of this analysis, we use notional results based on calculations by Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher, honorary professors at the University of Exeter, which estimate the 2019 election seat results if they had taken place on the new constituency boundaries.
Crunch time
We’re fast approaching election day. In their closing gambits, the Conservatives have been trying to claw back straying voters and convince undecided ones, while Labour have endeavoured to stick to the script and avoid any missteps.
The Conservatives are fending off a potential Labour landslide and are fighting on multiple fronts, while both leaders are wary of losing votes to smaller parties or apathy where people believe the result is already a foregone conclusion.
The big picture
It’s been a long five weeks for the Tories, whose campaign has been mired with several high-profile embarrassments: from Sunak’s D-Day gaffe to the growing sleaze scandal surrounding insider betting allegations at Westminster.
This hasn’t helped their attempt to narrow the polls, and the campaign has remained deep in defensive territory throughout. The prime minister has visited seats with an average 25% Conservative majority.
Nearly 9 in 10 (88%) of Sunak’s 51 constituency visits have been to seats his party is defending. Fourteen of those are places where the Conservatives’ closest rivals are the Lib Dems, and the remaining 34 in places where Labour is the strongest challenger.
In contrast, 84% of Starmer’s 44 constituency visits have been to seats Labour are targeting. All but four of them have been places the Tories are defending.
Labour’s challenge has been to generate enthusiasm for a Starmer government. On average, the target seats he has visited need a 10.5 point vote swing to become Labour gains – just above the figure that Tony Blair achieved in 1997.
Labour must achieve higher than this – a record swing of 12 percentage points from the Conservatives – to secure a majority, however, and Starmer has been visiting seats that require a vote swing as high as 18 points.
The Labour leader has mostly steered clear of the primarily Conservative vs Lib Dem battlegrounds in the south, but has ventured to parts of the South East that only Blair has previously managed to conquer.
Lib Dem leader Sir Ed Davey has seemingly been having the most fun on the campaign trail, with a series of attention-grabbing stunts including photo ops on rollercoasters and dips in the Thames.
All but one of his 40 campaign visits have been to seats the Lib Dems are targeting, including one Labour-held and one SNP-held seat, with the rest of his time spent targeting Conservative-held seats.
How does the ground battle match the digital one?
Looking at data from Who Targets Me, Sky’s partner for our Online Campaign Team, we’ve now got a pretty full picture of how the main two parties have using political advertising on social media.
The Conservatives have consistently trailed Labour both in terms of spend and in the number of adverts posted (you’d expect those to correlate).
But there doesn’t seem to be any coherence to the current campaign – not even a strategy of retrenchment, as Tom King from Who Targets Me notes: “it appears there is no directive, and every seat is sorting itself out.”
Labour has maintained its blanket coverage. And the tone of its adverts is very different.
They tend to focus on Labour and its central message: 22 per cent of all of the more than 5,500 adverts they’ve put up have contained the message “Change”.
The Conservatives have been a lot more negative. 83 per cent of their adverts mention Labour – and only 1 per cent mention their own leader Rishi Sunak. It’s definitely a rearguard action.
Hiding in plain sight
One theme that has been shared across the two main parties’ campaigns is their reluctance to send their leaders to the public or large crowds.
Rishi Sunak has been to see small crowds at many business locations, and the micro-management of his audiences was revealed early in the campaign when at one event it transpired that supposed members of the public were Conservative councillors.
Sir Keir Starmer has played on his football links, visiting two stadiums including Northampton Town this week, but has likewise mostly stuck to closely managed events.
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One leader who hasn’t been afraid of crowds is Reform’s Nigel Farage. Starting his campaign on a pub bench in Clacton, this week he had something of a homecoming in Newton Abbot where 1,500 spectators came to see him speak on Monday. The town was the location of UKIP’s headquarters in their heyday.
Sir Ed Davey, the Liberal Democrat leader, has also had a much more public-facing campaign in his various campaign stunts.
The Greens are the only ones to have really made use of celebrity endorsement. This week they won the vocal support of two Hughs – chef Fearnley-Whittingstall and actor Grant.
Upping the ante
The types of seats the Labour and Lib Dem leaders have visited have been markedly different this week.
Sir Keir Starmer has been to increasingly more ambitious targets, visiting Leicestershire North West this week which requires an 18-point swing for Labour to gain, the highest on his trail so far.
That’s also been the trend for Sir Ed Davey. In the final week of campaigning, he’s visited seats where the Liberal Democrats need a swing of 17 points on average to gain, up from 12 points in the previous week.
The prime minister has been less consistent. Indicative of the broad coalition of voters that Johnson built and Sunak has to defend, his visits have spanned from the most marginal defences to what should be the safest of majorities.
Popular places
Over the last 37 days, the three English main party leaders have made 135 visits to 119 unique constituencies. That’s more than 18% of the UK’s seats covered by Sunak, Starmer and Davey.
The seats with the most visits, at three apiece, are Redcar in the North East, Wimbledon in London, and Sunak’s own constituency Richmond & Northallerton in Yorkshire.
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Redcar, visited twice by Sunak and once by Starmer, is a Conservative defence where the Conservative minister candidate is looking vulnerable to Labour.
Davey has his sights set on the highly marginal seat of Wimbledon in London, which the Lib Dems have never won before. He’s visited twice, while Sunak has been to the Conservative defence once on the campaign trail.
And the prime minister has visited his own constituency three times, most recently this week. He defends a 46.9% majority but some MRP polls say there’s a chance he’ll lose it.
Dr Hannah Bunting is a Sky News elections analyst and co-director of The Elections Centre at the University of Exeter.
The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.
The UK will buy at least 12 F-35 stealth jets that can carry nuclear warheads in the most significant strengthening of its nuclear capability in a generation, the government has said.
Today, Sir Keir Starmer will tell a summit of NATO allies in The Hague that the new squadron will join an alliance mission that can be armed with US nuclear weapons.
The dramatic move will doubtless draw condemnation and concern from Russia and China.
But it comes at a time of growing global insecurity – and as the prime minister and his European and Canadian counterparts scramble to convince Donald Trump they are serious about bolstering their ability to defend Europe, instead of overly relying on the United States.
The US president, a long-standing NATO sceptic, raised questions about whether he would uphold the alliance’s founding Article 5 principle – that an attack on one is an attack on all – before he even arrived in the Dutch city last night.
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‘There’s numerous definitions of Article 5’
An urgent need to keep Mr Trump on side has prompted NATO allies to agree to increase spending on defence and national resilience to a new target of 5% of GDP by 2035.
As part of this push to rearm, Sir Keir will give the Royal Air Force the ability to carry airborne nuclear warheads for the first time since the 1990s.
“In an era of radical uncertainty we can no longer take peace for granted,” he said.
“These F-35 dual capable aircraft will herald a new era for our world-leading Royal Air Force and deter hostile threats that threaten the UK and our allies.
“The UK’s commitment to NATO is unquestionable, as is the alliance’s contribution to keeping the UK safe and secure, but we must all step up to protect the Euro-Atlantic area for generations to come.”
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What is NATO’s 5% defence spending goal?
It was not immediately clear when the F-35 jets would be bought or how much they will cost, but the new squadron will be part of a NATO-led nuclear deterrence mission.
That is in contrast to the UK’s national nuclear deterrence, based on a fleet of four nuclear-armed submarines, though they too are used to defend the whole of the alliance.
Mark Rutte, the head of NATO, applauded the plan – saying: “The UK has declared its nuclear deterrent to NATO for many decades, and I strongly welcome today’s announcement that the UK will now also join NATO’s nuclear mission and procure the F-35A.
“This is yet another robust British contribution to NATO.”
Sir Keir watches a demonstration by troops as he visits the Netherlands marines training base. Pic: AP
Aircraft operated by a small number of NATO countries, including Belgium, Germany and the Netherlands, are cleared to carry US-provided nuclear weapons in a war.
The RAF and the Royal Navy already operate F-35B jets that can fly off Britain’s two aircraft carriers, but they are not equipped to drop nuclear warheads.
The new planes will be the F-35A variant, operated by the air force, that take off from land but can fly further and be armed with nuclear or conventional weapons.
The government said they would all be based together at RAF Marham in Norfolk.
The government has long planned to purchase a total of 138 F-35 aircraft, but has so far only acquired around three dozen – seven years since the first jets entered service.
The decision to purchase 12 of the A-variant does not mean extra aircraft.
It just means a diversification in the fleet – something the RAF has long been pushing for – though it’s a decision some in the Royal Navy have long pushed back against, believing it would reduce even further the number of the B-version that operate from their carriers.
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Is the UK preparing for war?
The government described the plan to purchase nuclear-capable aircraft as the “biggest strengthening of the UK’s nuclear posture in a generation”.
Defence Secretary John Healey said a major defence review published earlier in the month highlighted new nuclear risks.
“It recommended a new UK role in our collective defence and deterrence through a NATO-first approach,” he said.
However, the public version of the Strategic Defence Review stopped short of making any specific recommendation.
It merely said “the UK must explore how to support the US and its NATO allies in strengthening extended deterrence across the Euro-Atlantic”.
The F-35 aircraft is made by the US defence giant Lockheed Martin, but the British defence company BAE Systems is also a key contributor.
The order will support 20,000 jobs in the F-35 programme in the UK.
Doctors are using AI software that does not meet minimum standards to record and transcribe patient meetings, according to a Sky News investigation.
NHS bosses have demanded GPs and hospitals stop using artificial intelligence software that could breach data protection rules and put patients at risk.
A warning sent out by NHS England this month came just weeks after the same body wrote to doctors about the benefits of using AI for notetaking – to allow them more time to concentrate on patients – using software known as Ambient Voice Technology, or “AVT”.
Health Secretary Wes Streeting will next week put AI at the heart of the reform plan to save the NHS in the 10-year plan for the health service in England.
But there is growing controversy around software that records, transcribes and summarises patient conversations using AI.
In April, NHS England wrote to doctors to sell the benefits of AVT and set out minimum national standards.
However, in a letter seen by Sky News, NHS bosses wrote to doctors to warn that unapproved software that breached minimum standards could harm patients.
The version seen in the GP demonstration to Sky News complies with all NHS England standards and guidance
The 9 June letter, from the national chief clinical information officer of NHS England, said: “We are now aware of a number of AVT solutions which, despite being non-compliant … are still being widely used in clinical practice.
“Several AVT suppliers are approaching NHS organisations … many of these vendors have not complied with basic NHS governance standards.
“Proceeding with non-compliant solutions risks clinical safety, data protection breaches, financial exposure, and fragmentation of broader NHS digital strategy.”
Sky News has previously revealed the danger of AI “hallucinations”, where the technology makes up answers then lies about them, which could prove dangerous in a healthcare setting.
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Is ChatGPT reliable despite its ‘hallucinations’?
NHS England sets minimum standards but does not tell NHS trusts and healthcare providers which software providers to use.
Sky News can now reveal there is growing pressure on NHS England and similar bodies to be more proactive.
Dr David Wrigley, deputy chair of the British Medical Association’s GP committee, said: “Undoubtedly, as a GP myself and my 35,000 colleagues, we’ve got responsibilities here – but in such a rapidly developing market when we haven’t got the technical knowledge to look into this.
“We need that help and support from those who can check that the products are safe, check they’re secure, that they’re suitable for use in the consulting room, and NHS England should do that and help and support us.”
Dr Wrigley continued: “We’re absolutely in favour of tech and in favour of taking that forward to help NHS patients, help my colleagues in their surgeries.
“But it’s got to be done in a safe and secure way because otherwise we could have a free for all – and then data could be lost, it could be leaking out, and that just isn’t acceptable.
“So we are not dinosaurs, we’re very pro-AI, but it has to be a safe, secure way.”
The head of the NHS Confederation says the letter is ‘a really significant moment’
The spectre of dozens of little-known but ambitious AI companies lobbying hospitals and surgeries to get their listening products installed worries some healthcare professionals.
There are huge profits to be made in this technological arms race, but the question being asked is whether hundreds of different NHS organisations can really be expected to sift out the sharks.
Matthew Taylor, chief executive of the NHS Confederation, said the letter was “a really significant moment”.
He said it was right for the NHS to experiment, but that it needed to be clearer what technology does and does not work safely.
“My own view is that the government should help in terms of the procurement decisions that trusts make and should advise on which AI systems – as we do with other forms of technology that we use in medicine – which ones are safe,” Mr Taylor said.
“We’ll need [government] to do a bit more to guide the NHS in the best way to use this.”
When pressed whether in the short term that actually makes it sound like it could be quite dangerous, Mr Taylor replied: “What you’ve seen with ambient voice technology is that kind of ‘let a thousand flowers bloom’ approach has got its limits.”
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Godfather of AI warns of its dangers
Earlier this year, the health secretary appeared to suggest unapproved technology was being used – but celebrated it as a sign doctors were enthusiastic for change.
Mr Streeting said: “I’ve heard anecdotally down the pub, genuinely down the pub, that some clinicians are getting ahead of the game and are already using ambient AI to kind of record notes and things, even where their practice or their trust haven’t yet caught up with them.
“Now, lots of issues there – not encouraging it – but it does tell me that contrary to this, ‘Oh, people don’t want to change, staff are very happy and they are really resistant to change’, it’s the opposite. People are crying out for this stuff.”
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GP Anil Mehta says AI software helps cut paperwork and patients are ‘extremely reassured’
Doctors who use AI that complies with national standards already say there are big benefits.
Anil Mehta, a doctor in the health secretary’s Ilford constituency, told Sky News he backed his MP’s drive for more AI technology in healthcare.
Dr Mehta demonstrated the version of Ambient Voice Technology that he uses.
This software, Accurx Scribe, has been developed and deployed in line with all current NHS England requirements for AVT, and there is no suggestion this product breaches any rules, standards or guidance.
Indeed, the company which developed it meets weekly with NHS England on creating a standardised approach to scale the benefits across the NHS.
“I spend 30% of my week doing paperwork,” Dr Mehta said.
“So I think once I’ve explained all of those features of what we’re doing, patients are extremely reassured. And I haven’t faced anybody that’s not wanted to have me do this.
He added: “(I) think that consultation with your doctor is extremely confidential, so that’s not changed at all.
“That remains confidential – so whether it’s a vulnerable adult, a vulnerable child, teenager, young child with a parent, I think the concept of that confidentiality remains.”
An NHS spokesperson said: “Ambient Voice Technology has the potential to transform care and improve efficiency and in April, the NHS issued guidance to support its use in a safe and secure way.
“We are working with NHS organisations and suppliers to ensure that all Ambient Voice Technology products used across the health service continue to be compliant with NHS standards on clinical safety and data security.”
Another heatwave could be on the way this weekend, forecasters say.
Temperatures could reach 30C, but some showers are expected before then amid more changeable weather.
Some parts of the UK will experience highs of 29C on Saturday, with the potential for 30C on Sunday and 31C on Monday, according to the Met Office.
Last Saturday was the hottest day of the year so far, with a provisional temperature of 33.2C recorded in Charlwood, Surrey.
The Met Office confirmed “many places” in England and “one or two areas” in Wales, including Cardiff, entered a heatwave last Friday.
A heatwave is recorded when an area reaches a certain temperature – the level of which varies across the UK – for three consecutive days.
Music fans can expect a mixture of sunshine and rain at this week’s Glastonbury Festival, where more than 200,000 people are expected to attend.
Some parts of the UK entered a heatwave last week. Pic: PA
‘Risk of showers and thunderstorms’
Oli Claydon, from the Met Office, said Wednesday would be “warmer” with “an increasing risk of showers and thunderstorms”.
He said temperatures would reach a maximum of 27C on Thursday, with potential for heavy showers in the east and more persistent rain in the northwest of Scotland into the evening.
“Friday will see a maximum of 27C again as the high, the showers will clear away to the northeast, with local drizzle in parts of the South West and Wales through the day,” Mr Claydon added.
The South East of England is expected to experience the highest temperatures, potentially reaching 29C on Saturday and 30C on Sunday.
Temperatures could reach up to 31C on Monday, but there was lower certainty around that, Mr Claydon added.
Mr Claydon said it was possible the South East of England “could be looking at a short-lived localised heatwave”.
“When we had the warm spell last week it was much more widespread, we’re not likely to see that,” he added.
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So far, this month’s average daytime temperature is 19.2C, slightly above the June average of 17.68C.
But the Met Office said that temperatures were expected to fall next week.
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