Election campaign trails: How party leaders are upping the ante as poll day looms
This week the party leaders made their final pleas to voters. The Labour and Lib Dem leaders visited some of their most ambitious targets so far, while the prime minister took a scattergun approach, fighting for votes in even some of the safest of Tory seats.
Watch their journeys this week in our animated map below.
This campaign is being fought on new electoral boundaries, with many constituencies undergoing significant changes since 2019.
For the purposes of this analysis, we use notional results based on calculations by Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher, honorary professors at the University of Exeter, which estimate the 2019 election seat results if they had taken place on the new constituency boundaries.
Crunch time
We’re fast approaching election day. In their closing gambits, the Conservatives have been trying to claw back straying voters and convince undecided ones, while Labour have endeavoured to stick to the script and avoid any missteps.
The Conservatives are fending off a potential Labour landslide and are fighting on multiple fronts, while both leaders are wary of losing votes to smaller parties or apathy where people believe the result is already a foregone conclusion.
The big picture
It’s been a long five weeks for the Tories, whose campaign has been mired with several high-profile embarrassments: from Sunak’s D-Day gaffe to the growing sleaze scandal surrounding insider betting allegations at Westminster.
This hasn’t helped their attempt to narrow the polls, and the campaign has remained deep in defensive territory throughout. The prime minister has visited seats with an average 25% Conservative majority.
Nearly 9 in 10 (88%) of Sunak’s 51 constituency visits have been to seats his party is defending. Fourteen of those are places where the Conservatives’ closest rivals are the Lib Dems, and the remaining 34 in places where Labour is the strongest challenger.
In contrast, 84% of Starmer’s 44 constituency visits have been to seats Labour are targeting. All but four of them have been places the Tories are defending.
Labour’s challenge has been to generate enthusiasm for a Starmer government. On average, the target seats he has visited need a 10.5 point vote swing to become Labour gains – just above the figure that Tony Blair achieved in 1997.
Labour must achieve higher than this – a record swing of 12 percentage points from the Conservatives – to secure a majority, however, and Starmer has been visiting seats that require a vote swing as high as 18 points.
The Labour leader has mostly steered clear of the primarily Conservative vs Lib Dem battlegrounds in the south, but has ventured to parts of the South East that only Blair has previously managed to conquer.
Lib Dem leader Sir Ed Davey has seemingly been having the most fun on the campaign trail, with a series of attention-grabbing stunts including photo ops on rollercoasters and dips in the Thames.
All but one of his 40 campaign visits have been to seats the Lib Dems are targeting, including one Labour-held and one SNP-held seat, with the rest of his time spent targeting Conservative-held seats.
How does the ground battle match the digital one?
Looking at data from Who Targets Me, Sky’s partner for our Online Campaign Team, we’ve now got a pretty full picture of how the main two parties have using political advertising on social media.
The Conservatives have consistently trailed Labour both in terms of spend and in the number of adverts posted (you’d expect those to correlate).
But there doesn’t seem to be any coherence to the current campaign – not even a strategy of retrenchment, as Tom King from Who Targets Me notes: “it appears there is no directive, and every seat is sorting itself out.”
Labour has maintained its blanket coverage. And the tone of its adverts is very different.
They tend to focus on Labour and its central message: 22 per cent of all of the more than 5,500 adverts they’ve put up have contained the message “Change”.
The Conservatives have been a lot more negative. 83 per cent of their adverts mention Labour – and only 1 per cent mention their own leader Rishi Sunak. It’s definitely a rearguard action.
Hiding in plain sight
One theme that has been shared across the two main parties’ campaigns is their reluctance to send their leaders to the public or large crowds.
Rishi Sunak has been to see small crowds at many business locations, and the micro-management of his audiences was revealed early in the campaign when at one event it transpired that supposed members of the public were Conservative councillors.
Sir Keir Starmer has played on his football links, visiting two stadiums including Northampton Town this week, but has likewise mostly stuck to closely managed events.
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One leader who hasn’t been afraid of crowds is Reform’s Nigel Farage. Starting his campaign on a pub bench in Clacton, this week he had something of a homecoming in Newton Abbot where 1,500 spectators came to see him speak on Monday. The town was the location of UKIP’s headquarters in their heyday.
Sir Ed Davey, the Liberal Democrat leader, has also had a much more public-facing campaign in his various campaign stunts.
The Greens are the only ones to have really made use of celebrity endorsement. This week they won the vocal support of two Hughs – chef Fearnley-Whittingstall and actor Grant.
Upping the ante
The types of seats the Labour and Lib Dem leaders have visited have been markedly different this week.
Sir Keir Starmer has been to increasingly more ambitious targets, visiting Leicestershire North West this week which requires an 18-point swing for Labour to gain, the highest on his trail so far.
That’s also been the trend for Sir Ed Davey. In the final week of campaigning, he’s visited seats where the Liberal Democrats need a swing of 17 points on average to gain, up from 12 points in the previous week.
The prime minister has been less consistent. Indicative of the broad coalition of voters that Johnson built and Sunak has to defend, his visits have spanned from the most marginal defences to what should be the safest of majorities.
Popular places
Over the last 37 days, the three English main party leaders have made 135 visits to 119 unique constituencies. That’s more than 18% of the UK’s seats covered by Sunak, Starmer and Davey.
The seats with the most visits, at three apiece, are Redcar in the North East, Wimbledon in London, and Sunak’s own constituency Richmond & Northallerton in Yorkshire.
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Redcar, visited twice by Sunak and once by Starmer, is a Conservative defence where the Conservative minister candidate is looking vulnerable to Labour.
Davey has his sights set on the highly marginal seat of Wimbledon in London, which the Lib Dems have never won before. He’s visited twice, while Sunak has been to the Conservative defence once on the campaign trail.
And the prime minister has visited his own constituency three times, most recently this week. He defends a 46.9% majority but some MRP polls say there’s a chance he’ll lose it.
Dr Hannah Bunting is a Sky News elections analyst and co-director of The Elections Centre at the University of Exeter.
The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.
The UK lacks a national plan to defend itself from attack and is moving at a “glacial” pace to fix the problem despite threats from Russia and China, a report by MPs has warned.
With the whole country needing to understand what it means to be ready for war, the Defence Select Committee also said it had seen no sign of a promised “national conversation on defence and security” that was launched by Sir Keir Starmer in June.
Sky News and other journalists were even blocked on Monday from interviewing sailors aboard HMS Prince of Wales, the Royal Navy’s flagship aircraft carrier, in direct contrast to the prime minister’s stated aim of greater engagement.
Royal Navy aircraft carrier HMS Prince of Wales. File pic: AP
Public needs to know ‘what to expect’ from war
“We have repeatedly heard concerns about the UK’s ability to defend itself from attack,” said Labour MP Tan Dhesi, chair of the committee.
“Government must be willing to grasp the nettle and prioritise homeland defence and resilience.
“In achieving this, government cannot shy away from direct engagement with the public.
“Wars aren’t won just by generals, but by the whole of the population getting behind the Armed Forces and playing our part.
“There needs to be a co-ordinated effort to communicate with the public on the level of threat we face and what to expect in the event of conflict.”
The Royal Navy tracked a Russian submarine in UK waters last month. Pic: Royal Navy/MOD
‘The Wargame’ made real?
The findings of the report support a podcast series by Sky News and Tortoise Media called The Wargame – released in June.
It simulated a Russian attack on the UK and played out what the impact might be for the country in the absence of a credible, resourced and rehearsed national defence plan – something Britain maintained rigorously during the Cold War.
Sky News first revealed in April 2024 that the previous government no longer had such a plan, though work was under way to develop one.
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Flagship aircraft carrier to be placed under NATO command
Report’s assessment of war-readiness
The Defence Select Committee report – based on a nearly year-long inquiry – found: “The UK lacks a plan for defending the homeland and overseas territories with little progress on the Home Defence Programme.”
It said this meant the government was failing to meet a fundamental commitment to the NATO alliance – the Article 3 requirement to maintain the “capacity to resist armed attack”.
The report quoted Luke Pollard, a defence minister, acknowledging that “we have been very clear that we are not satisfied with Article 3 in the UK”.
Britain’s new Ajax fighting vehicle, which arrived overdue and at great financial cost. Pic: PA
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Yet the MPs’ report added: “Despite this recognition from government… measures to remediate seem to be moving at a glacial pace.”
It said: “Cross-government working on homeland defence and resilience is nowhere near where it needs to be. The government has said repeatedly that we are in an era of new threat, yet decision-making is slow and opaque.”
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The rebuke from the MPs was published as John Healey, the defence secretary, prepares to announce that 13 sites across the UK have been identified as possible locations for at least six new weapons factories.
“This is a new era of threat,” he will say at a speech in Westminster later.
“We are making defence an engine for growth, unambiguously backing British jobs and British skills as we make the UK better ready to fight and better able to deter future conflicts.
“This is the path that delivers national and economic security.”
Industry will be invited to submit proposals to produce ammunition and explosives, with the Ministry of Defence saying it hopes work on the first factory will begin next year.
Scotland secured a place at the men’s World Cup for the first time since 1998 as stoppage-time goals by Kieran Tierney and Kenny McLean secured a thrilling 4-2 win over Denmark at Hampden Park.
Scott McTominay’s spectacular third-minute bicycle kick had given the hosts a half-time lead.
Rasmus Hojlund equalised for the Danes in the 57th minute shortly before Rasmus Kristensen was sent off, but Lawrence Shankland restored Scotland’s advantage.
When Patrick Dorgu brought Denmark level again with nine minutes remaining, it seemed they would claim the point needed to top the group and book their place at next year’s tournament in the US, Canada, and Mexico.
However, Tierney fired an unstoppable shot past Kasper Schmeichel in the third minute of stoppage time
And then, with the Denmark goalkeeper up in attack at the other end of the pitch, McLean hit a long-range effort from his own half to spark delirious scenes.
Scotland’s Kenny McLean celebrates scoring his side’s fourth goal against Denmark. Pic: PA
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The victory saw Scotland top Group C and secure automatic qualification for the 2026 World Cup.
Head coach Steve Clarke had already led his country to back-to-back European Championships.
He told the BBC: “Scott McTominay scored the best overhead kick I’ve ever seen, and it might not have been the best goal of the night!”
Scott McTominay celebrates scoring the opening goal for Scotland. Pic: Reuters
Scotland captain Andy Robertson dedicated the victory to his former Liverpool teammate Diogo Jota, who died earlier this year in a car accident.
He told the BBC: “We certainly put the country through it, but I’m sure it will be worth it.”
“I couldn’t get my mate Diogo Jota out of my head today,” he added. We spoke so much together about the World Cup. When he missed out in Qatar through injury and I missed out when Scotland never went.
“We always discussed what it would be like going to this World Cup. I know he’ll be somewhere smiling over me tonight.”
The draw for the 2026 World Cup will take place in Washington on 5 December.
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