Election campaign trails: How party leaders are upping the ante as poll day looms
This week the party leaders made their final pleas to voters. The Labour and Lib Dem leaders visited some of their most ambitious targets so far, while the prime minister took a scattergun approach, fighting for votes in even some of the safest of Tory seats.
Watch their journeys this week in our animated map below.
This campaign is being fought on new electoral boundaries, with many constituencies undergoing significant changes since 2019.
For the purposes of this analysis, we use notional results based on calculations by Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher, honorary professors at the University of Exeter, which estimate the 2019 election seat results if they had taken place on the new constituency boundaries.
Crunch time
We’re fast approaching election day. In their closing gambits, the Conservatives have been trying to claw back straying voters and convince undecided ones, while Labour have endeavoured to stick to the script and avoid any missteps.
The Conservatives are fending off a potential Labour landslide and are fighting on multiple fronts, while both leaders are wary of losing votes to smaller parties or apathy where people believe the result is already a foregone conclusion.
The big picture
It’s been a long five weeks for the Tories, whose campaign has been mired with several high-profile embarrassments: from Sunak’s D-Day gaffe to the growing sleaze scandal surrounding insider betting allegations at Westminster.
This hasn’t helped their attempt to narrow the polls, and the campaign has remained deep in defensive territory throughout. The prime minister has visited seats with an average 25% Conservative majority.
Nearly 9 in 10 (88%) of Sunak’s 51 constituency visits have been to seats his party is defending. Fourteen of those are places where the Conservatives’ closest rivals are the Lib Dems, and the remaining 34 in places where Labour is the strongest challenger.
In contrast, 84% of Starmer’s 44 constituency visits have been to seats Labour are targeting. All but four of them have been places the Tories are defending.
Labour’s challenge has been to generate enthusiasm for a Starmer government. On average, the target seats he has visited need a 10.5 point vote swing to become Labour gains – just above the figure that Tony Blair achieved in 1997.
Labour must achieve higher than this – a record swing of 12 percentage points from the Conservatives – to secure a majority, however, and Starmer has been visiting seats that require a vote swing as high as 18 points.
The Labour leader has mostly steered clear of the primarily Conservative vs Lib Dem battlegrounds in the south, but has ventured to parts of the South East that only Blair has previously managed to conquer.
Lib Dem leader Sir Ed Davey has seemingly been having the most fun on the campaign trail, with a series of attention-grabbing stunts including photo ops on rollercoasters and dips in the Thames.
All but one of his 40 campaign visits have been to seats the Lib Dems are targeting, including one Labour-held and one SNP-held seat, with the rest of his time spent targeting Conservative-held seats.
How does the ground battle match the digital one?
Looking at data from Who Targets Me, Sky’s partner for our Online Campaign Team, we’ve now got a pretty full picture of how the main two parties have using political advertising on social media.
The Conservatives have consistently trailed Labour both in terms of spend and in the number of adverts posted (you’d expect those to correlate).
But there doesn’t seem to be any coherence to the current campaign – not even a strategy of retrenchment, as Tom King from Who Targets Me notes: “it appears there is no directive, and every seat is sorting itself out.”
Labour has maintained its blanket coverage. And the tone of its adverts is very different.
They tend to focus on Labour and its central message: 22 per cent of all of the more than 5,500 adverts they’ve put up have contained the message “Change”.
The Conservatives have been a lot more negative. 83 per cent of their adverts mention Labour – and only 1 per cent mention their own leader Rishi Sunak. It’s definitely a rearguard action.
Hiding in plain sight
One theme that has been shared across the two main parties’ campaigns is their reluctance to send their leaders to the public or large crowds.
Rishi Sunak has been to see small crowds at many business locations, and the micro-management of his audiences was revealed early in the campaign when at one event it transpired that supposed members of the public were Conservative councillors.
Sir Keir Starmer has played on his football links, visiting two stadiums including Northampton Town this week, but has likewise mostly stuck to closely managed events.
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One leader who hasn’t been afraid of crowds is Reform’s Nigel Farage. Starting his campaign on a pub bench in Clacton, this week he had something of a homecoming in Newton Abbot where 1,500 spectators came to see him speak on Monday. The town was the location of UKIP’s headquarters in their heyday.
Sir Ed Davey, the Liberal Democrat leader, has also had a much more public-facing campaign in his various campaign stunts.
The Greens are the only ones to have really made use of celebrity endorsement. This week they won the vocal support of two Hughs – chef Fearnley-Whittingstall and actor Grant.
Upping the ante
The types of seats the Labour and Lib Dem leaders have visited have been markedly different this week.
Sir Keir Starmer has been to increasingly more ambitious targets, visiting Leicestershire North West this week which requires an 18-point swing for Labour to gain, the highest on his trail so far.
That’s also been the trend for Sir Ed Davey. In the final week of campaigning, he’s visited seats where the Liberal Democrats need a swing of 17 points on average to gain, up from 12 points in the previous week.
The prime minister has been less consistent. Indicative of the broad coalition of voters that Johnson built and Sunak has to defend, his visits have spanned from the most marginal defences to what should be the safest of majorities.
Popular places
Over the last 37 days, the three English main party leaders have made 135 visits to 119 unique constituencies. That’s more than 18% of the UK’s seats covered by Sunak, Starmer and Davey.
The seats with the most visits, at three apiece, are Redcar in the North East, Wimbledon in London, and Sunak’s own constituency Richmond & Northallerton in Yorkshire.
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Redcar, visited twice by Sunak and once by Starmer, is a Conservative defence where the Conservative minister candidate is looking vulnerable to Labour.
Davey has his sights set on the highly marginal seat of Wimbledon in London, which the Lib Dems have never won before. He’s visited twice, while Sunak has been to the Conservative defence once on the campaign trail.
And the prime minister has visited his own constituency three times, most recently this week. He defends a 46.9% majority but some MRP polls say there’s a chance he’ll lose it.
Dr Hannah Bunting is a Sky News elections analyst and co-director of The Elections Centre at the University of Exeter.
The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.
Victims of grooming gangs and modern slavery are being denied compensation by a government scheme because of their criminal records, Sky News has learned.
Analysis of official figures by Sky News’ Data & Forensics team shows more than 11,000 victims of crime over the last decade have been denied payouts because of their unspent convictions, including children.
The Criminal Injuries Compensation Authority can award money to victims of violent crime, including sexual abuse.
It is the only government compensation scheme for victims – for those unable to work due to injuries, the money can be vital.
But, if an applicant has a criminal record, they are automatically refused compensation with limited exceptions.
Those with unspent convictions sometimes receive reduced sums.
Sky News has found that at least 130 children with criminal records have received reduced awards over the last 10 years, including 50 victims of sex abuse, four victims of brain damage, and one child who lost sight in an eye.
This rule on unspent convictions is based on the idea that public funds should only compensate blameless victims of crime and not, for example, a gang member who was injured in a fight.
But many argue the policy punishes those who have been forced to offend by exploiters, as well as victims of child sexual abuse.
‘I was frustrated that I wasn’t being believed’
Arthur Sherry, 43, from Perranporth in Cornwall was regularly abused by his babysitter from the age of five, including suffering rape.
In 2008, he reported it to Devon and Cornwall Police, alongside two other victims. He alleges the police did not believe him, and charges were not brought against his abuser.
Arthur Sherry, who was abused as a child, says he was denied compensation because of his criminal record
Arthur became angry and descended into addiction as a “coping mechanism”, becoming suicidal, and was repeatedly arrested for minor offences, such as making false calls to the emergency services.
“I wasn’t getting support from any agencies, and no one asked me, ‘Why is this man ringing the emergency services all the time?'”
“It was a cry for help. I was frustrated that I wasn’t being believed.”
Eventually, Arthur’s abuser, Shaun Burton, was convicted of multiple offences against children, including 11 counts of indecency with a child in relation to Mr Sherry.
But when Arthur, who suffers from complex PTSD, subsequently tried to make a claim through the Criminal Injuries Compensation Authority in 2013, it was rejected because of his criminal record and because he submitted his application beyond CICA’s time limit.
He was not allowed to appeal the decision.
Arthur, aged 12 in the picture, was regularly abused by his babysitter, Shaun Burton, from the age of five
Many survivors of grooming gangs have criminal records due to being exploited and coerced.
While the government recently announced plans to disregard child prostitution convictions for these victims, many are urging authorities to go further and pardon all related offences.
Former victims’ commissioner Dame Vera Baird said: “They were not exercising their own free will and voluntarily committing crime, so there should be a discretion to look at that and say, ‘No, that wasn’t their fault’.
“They should get compensation for all the evil that was done to them by that gang.”
In 2022, the Independent Inquiry into Child Sexual Abuse recommended that the government amend the Criminal Injuries Compensation Scheme so that “applicants with unspent convictions are not automatically excluded where offences are likely to be linked to the circumstances of their sexual abuse as a child”.
The government has refused to act on this recommendation.
However, Labour MP Sarah Champion has tabled an amendment to the upcoming Victims and Courts Bill, hoping to implement it, as well as widen eligibility to the scheme.
“Victims are seen as running a cannabis farm and get a conviction, before it actually turns out that they were a victim of modern slavery.
“These people, who are very clearly recognised as victims and survivors, aren’t getting the money that’s owed to them. The system is broken and the ministers need to get rid of it.”
‘I was frustrated that I wasn’t being believed,’ Arthur tells Sky News’ Alice Porter
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A government spokesperson said: “Last year, more than £164m was paid out under the Criminal Injuries Compensation Scheme to victims, and we are going further by removing the time limit for civil personal injury claims and doubling Home Office funding for services supporting adult victims and survivors of child sexual abuse.
“Changes to the way we compensate victims have been considered by successive governments, and our priority must always be to treat all victims of violence equally.”
Devon and Cornwall Police said: “Tackling sexual offending is a key priority for Devon & Cornwall Police and we are working hard to bring offenders to justice.
“We take reports of all sexual offences seriously and will carry out thorough investigations into reports, looking at all viable lines of enquiry.”
Nathan Gill was at Manchester airport, about to board a flight to Russia, when accepting bribes finally caught up with him.
Gill, the former leader of Reform UK Wales and a one-time member of the European Parliament, who on Friday was jailed for 10-a-half-years, was stopped by police before boarding and had his phone seized in 2021.
While they interrogated him, his home in Anglesey was raided, with detectives discovering more electronics and cash piles of €5,000 (£4,400) and $5,000 (£3,800) respectively.
Nathan Gill being questioned. Pic: Met Police
The evidence on Gill’s phone would damn him – he was in contact with a pro-Russian politician in Ukraine, Oleg Voloshyn, and had agreed to boost pro-Russia viewpoints in exchange for money.
Voloshyn would dictate the statement, and Gill would repeat it – in some cases, almost word for word – in the media or the European Parliament.
In one instance, Gill appeared on the now-banned Ukrainian TV channel, 112 Ukraine, which was known for its pro-Russian stance.
In the interview, he was critical of the Ukrainian decision to open criminal proceedings against Viktor Medvedchuk, the owner of the television channel and a personal friend of Vladimir Putin.
Nathan Gill. Pic: Met Police
Speaking to the outlet, he said he was “very concerned” about the investigation, and wondered whether it was meant to silence “opposition politicians”.
Prosecutors said messages on Gill’s phone showed that this was at his paymaster’s instruction, with Voloshyn offering a “reward” if he would say that it was unacceptable to persecute a person for their political convictions.
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Voloshyn also offered the MEP €2,000 (£1,750) if he would express concern that Mr Medvedchuk could no longer mediate with Russia on Ukraine’s behalf, the court heard.
He added that “V” – understood to be Mr Medvedchuk – did not believe Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had “true intentions to pursue a peace agenda”, prosecutors said.
Bundles of cash were recovered from Gill’s home. Pic: Met Police
Sure enough, Gill appeared on 112 Ukraine saying it was “very sad” that Mr Medvedchuk felt he no longer had Mr Zelensky’s backing to act as a mediator with Russia, and suggested that using him “would be a sensible thing to do”.
The messages traded in innuendo, referring to the exchange of “Xmas gifts” or “postcards” instead of money.
But as the pair grew more comfortable with each other, they bargained more explicitly, with the sum of “£5k” quoted for Gill’s work.
Dominic Murphy, head of Counter Terrorism Command at the Met Police, said Gill had also offered access to other MEPs.
“This is where we get into that slightly odd situation where it feels very much like a real effort to undermine democracy here,” he said.
“This is Nathan Gill reaching out to individuals that he knows, who are Brits, who might be willing to be paid to go and make speeches.”
Commander Murphy declined to name names, but said there was an ongoing investigation and that other people had been spoken to.
None of the pro-Brexit MEPs Gill allegedly approached have been interviewed under caution.
Pic: Met Police
Police confirmed there was no evidence to suggest Reform UK leader Nigel Farage was involved.
Gill was stopped at Manchester Airport on 13 September 2021, under schedule 3 of the Counter Terrorism and Borders Security Act 2019.
He offered police no explanation for his actions and answered no comment in a March 2022 police interview.
But the 52-year-old is believed to have had financial problems.
Mr Murphy added that while Gill appeared to have pro-Russian sympathies, he was primarily motivated by money.
The ex-MEP has been jailed for 10-and-a-half years after pleading guilty to eight counts of bribery between December 2018 and July 2019.
Following an investigation by counter-terrorism police, officers said they believe Gill likely took a minimum of £40,000 in cash and was offering to introduce other British MEPs so they could be bribed.
Voloshyn was picked up by the authorities on a trip to the US in 2021, which enabled the FBI to discover his end of the conversation.
He is now believed to be in Russia, but has been sanctioned by the UK government over allegations of trying to destabilise Ukraine.
Nathan Gill pleaded guilty to eight counts of bribery over pro-Russian statements. Including to media outlet 112 Ukraine. Pic: Met Police
He remains wanted in both Britain and Ukraine.
A Reform UK spokesman said: “Mr Gill’s actions were reprehensible, treasonous and unforgivable.
“We are glad that justice has been served and fully welcome the sentence Nathan Gill has received.”
Mr Farage, the Reform UK leader, said: “An investigation into Russian and Chinese influence over British politics would be welcome.”
The MP for Clacton previously described his former colleague as a “bad apple” and said he was “shocked” after Gill pleaded guilty to eight counts of bribery.
He said: “Any political party can find in their midst all sorts of terrible people.
“You can never, ever guarantee 100% that everyone you meet in your life, you shake hands with in the pub, is a good person.”
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