France election: Marine Le Pen on the brink of power, as Emmanuel Macron’s big gamble looks set to fail
In France, politics is happening at a ferocious pace.
This country – big, wealthy, influential and vital to the stability of Europe – is suddenly facing a moment of tumult. Change, and perhaps really big change, is looming.
There are election posters up everywhere, candidates staring out at you with fixed grins and slogans. But there is one face that seems to appear more than anyone else – Marine Le Pen.
Posters of Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella
A fixture in French politics for a quarter of a century, she has stood for president, rebuilt her party, and even remoulded France’s far-right conversation. But now, more than ever, she sits on the brink of real power.
After Sunday’s election, the polls suggest that her far-right Rassemblement National (RN) will be the biggest winner, even allowing for the curious complexities of the French system.
A left-wing alliance will probably come second with the centre-ground party of President Emmanuel Macron trailing along in third.
If – and it’s a huge, wobbly, unreliable if – the RN were to get most seats in the National Assembly, the country would be transformed.
Madame Le Pen’s protege, the 28-year-old Jordan Bardella, would inevitably be installed as prime minister, working uneasily alongside a president who loathes pretty much everything that the RN stands for.
Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron. Pic: Reuters
Mr Bardella would want much tougher laws against immigration, and against supporting immigrants.
He would also want to unwind some of Macron’s economic reforms and is much more sceptical about European integration than Macron.
How, you might wonder, could these two politicians work together in any meaningful way?
It would pave the way for instability, but also for the RN to flex real political clout.
And it would also lead to Ms Le Pen, once again, running for president. And as I write this, she is the favourite to win that contest, too.
But back to that big “if”.
Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella. Pic: Reuters
France has a two-round voting system, with a week in between ballots. Candidates knocked out in the first round often advise their supporters who to back in the decisive second ballot. People might change their minds anyway.
The results from the first influence the way people behave in the second. A higher turnout may help the RN, except in the big cities, where it will probably help their opponents. It is a confusing, noisy mechanism almost everyone agrees on two things.
Firstly, the RN, led by Le Pen but also focused upon Mr Bardella, is destined to win more seats than any other party. And, secondly, this is all the more frenetic because it came out of the blue.
Make no mistake, a month ago, none of this was predicted. Sure, everyone knew that the Renaissance party of President Emmanuel Macron was likely to suffer a bloody nose during the European elections.
The RN, powered by disaffection with Macron and the populist, anti-immigration, “France First” rhetoric of Ms Le Pen and the youthful Mr Bardella, was certain to prosper.
But history is littered with mid-term elections that produce curious results. Macron, surely, would just shrug it off.
Jordan Bardella could soon take a key role within France’s government. Pic: Reuters
Except he didn’t.
Humbled by the scale of his defeat, Macron went on French television within minutes to announce that he was doing the very thing that his enemies in the RN had demanded – using his presidential power to dissolve parliament and call for fresh elections within weeks.
His logic was that the nation – his nation – would somehow come to its senses and turn its back on radical politics in general, and the RN in particular. And the evidence is that, fuelled by his own iron-clad self-belief, he got that wrong.
So what’s happening? More than anything, this is about two big political waves meeting each other. The first one has to do with Macron himself, whose popularity has simply declined. The second has to do with the ripple of populism that is moving through so many countries.
When he stormed to the presidency seven years ago, he was seen by many as the fresh new start that France needed – a dynamic young man, just 39 years old, who would shake up the nation and bring back some sense of dynamism and glory.
In the run-off against Ms Le Pen, he pitched himself as the politician of optimism, and her as a figure of hate. It worked – he won easily.
His follow-up victory a couple of years ago was less overwhelming but still comfortable. But then he lost control of the parliament and his control waned.
The old complaints came back – that he is, to quote an accusation I’ve heard countless times – the “president for the rich”; that he doesn’t understand the problems of normal people; that his interest is in promoting himself, not his country.
During the violent riots in Nanterre last year, Mr Macron’s government looked hopelessly leaden, while his efforts to raise the retirement age caused widespread fury.
His opponents from the centre have fragmented but his rivals on the left and right have become emboldened.
So while Mr Macron has tried to sound reasonable and emollient, he’s faced strident, unapologetic rhetoric from left and right, which has found an ever-greater audience.
Mr Macron is still a young man by the standards of global political leaders but perhaps his nation is now fed up with him, particularly at a time when so much space in the European political arena is being taken by leaders who favour strident opinions over considered nuance.
Giorgia Meloni, prime minister of Italy. Pic: AP
The French just have to look over their border with Italy, after all, to see how Giorgia Meloni’s brand of right-wing populism has prospered.
Look, perhaps, at the success in the Netherlands of Geert Wilders, a man who, like Ms Le Pen, spent decades in the political margins, confident that one day his time would come.
Or consider the volume of support given to the farmers who brought France’s motorways to a halt, angry with governments in Paris and Brussels.
The RN has tapped into that discontent and also benefited from it.
Dutch anti-Islam politician Geert Wilders of the PVV, or Party for Freedom, voting in the European election in The Hague, Netherlands. Pic: AP
Sky News Data has analysed voting data from across France and drawn a few clear links that occur again and again.
In places where unemployment is high, such as near the border with Spain, or where disposable income is low, such as northwest France, the RN scores highly.
Madame Le Pen herself represents one of these places in the assembly – the 11th constituency of Pas-de-Calais. It includes Henin-Beaumont, a coal-mining town where she used to be a councillor and which is now an RN stronghold.
All around it are slag-heaps, now covered in grass. They are a reminder of the town’s past and also induce a widespread and lingering sense of resentment that the area, and its people, have been left behind.
If politics is a horseshoe, this is Mr Macron’s problem. The far-left leaders, like Jean-Luc Melenchon, condemn the President for not doing enough to protect workers and for damaging the fabric of society. So, too, do Ms Le Pen, Mr Bardella and the far-right.
Read more:
Growing unease in Paris suburbs over National Rally’s lead
French economy hit by Macron’s election gamble
Mbappe urges young people to ignore extremes
Their solutions are different, with Mr Melenchon’s rhetoric focusing on tax rises for the rich and stronger workers’ rights, while Ms Le Pen talks about immigration and protectionism, but perhaps the specifics don’t matter.
The fact is that after years of leadership from the centre, France is now increasingly looking to its margins.
We know the RN will do well, so the question is now just how well. And if they don’t take an absolute majority, and if Mr Macron resists appointing Mr Bardella as prime minister, what happens then?
Will the French government grind to a halt, gummed up by political divisions that stop anything being done?
Could Macron, as proud a leader as you’ll find, ever really be pushed into resignation?
We simply don’t know. And that is what makes this election so enthralling but also slightly unnerving.
World
‘At least 59 killed’ in Gaza after Israeli military opens fire near aid centre and carries out strikes
At least 59 Palestinians have reportedly been killed after the Israeli military opened fire near an aid centre in Gaza and carried out strikes across the territory.
The Red Cross, which operates a field hospital in Rafah, said 25 people were “declared dead upon arrival” and “six more died after admittance” following gunfire near an aid distribution centre in the southern Gazan city.
The humanitarian organisation added that it also received 132 patients “suffering from weapon-related injuries” after the incident.
The Red Cross said: “The overwhelming majority of these patients sustained gunshot wounds, and all responsive individuals reported they were attempting to access food distribution sites.”
The organisation said the number of deaths marks the hospital’s “largest influx of fatalities” since it began operations in May last year.
The IDF has said it fired “warning shots” near the aid distribution site but it was “not aware of injured individuals” as a result.
It said in a statement: “Earlier today, several suspects were identified approaching IDF troops operating in the Rafah area, posing a threat to the troops, hundreds of metres from the aid distribution site.
“IDF troops operated in order to prevent the suspects from approaching them and fired warning shots.”
Palestinians mourn a loved one following the incident near the aid centre. Pic: Reuters
Mother’s despair over shooting
Somia Alshaar told Sky News her 17-year-old son Nasir was shot dead while visiting the aid centre after she told him not to go.
She said: “He went to get us tahini so we could eat.
“He went to get flour. He told me ‘mama, we don’t have tahini. Today I’ll bring you flour. Even if it kills me, I will get you flour’.
“He left the house and didn’t return. They told me at the hospital: your son…’Oh God, oh Lord’.”
Asked where her son was shot, she replied: “In the chest. Yes, in the chest.”
Somia Alshaar, pictured with her daughter, says her son was shot dead. Pic: Reuters
‘A policy of mass murder’
Hassan Omran, a paramedic with Gaza’s ministry of health, told Sky News after the incident that humanitarian aid centres in Gaza are now “centres of mass death”.
Speaking in Khan Younis, he said: “Today, there were more than 150 injuries and more than 20 martyrs at the aid distribution centres… the Israeli occupation deliberately kills and commits genocide. The Israeli occupation is carrying out a policy of mass murder.
“They call people to come get their daily food, and then, when citizens arrive at these centres, they are killed in cold blood.
“All the victims have gunshot wounds to the head and chest, meaning the enemy is committing these crimes deliberately.”
Israel has rejected genocide accusations and denies targeting civilians.
Two boys mourn their brother at Nasser Hospital in Khan Younis. Pic: Reuters
‘Lies being peddled’
The Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF), the controversial US and Israeli-backed group which operates the distribution centre near Rafah, said: “Hamas is claiming there was violence at our aid distribution sites today. False.
“Once again, there were no incidents at or in the immediate vicinity of our sites.
“But that’s not stopping some from spreading the lies being peddled by ‘officials’ at the Hamas-controlled Nasser Hospital.”
The Red Cross said its field hospital in Rafah has recorded more than 250 fatalities and treated more than 3,400 “weapon-wounded patients” since new food distribution sites were set up in Gaza on 27 May.
Read more:
‘At least 798 killed’ at Gaza aid points
’10 children killed’ waiting for Gaza health clinic to open
Israel says permanent ceasefire ‘questionable’
Palestinians inspect the wreckage after an Israeli airstrike in Deir al Balah. Pic: AP
It comes after four children and two women were among at least 13 people who died in Deir al Balah, in central Gaza, after Israeli strikes pounded the area starting late on Friday, officials in Al Aqsa Martyrs hospital in the territory said.
Fifteen others died in Israeli airstrikes in Khan Younis, in southern Gaza, according to Nasser Hospital.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has not responded to a request for comment on the reported deaths.
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Israeli has been carrying out attacks in Gaza since Hamas-led militants killed some 1,200 people and took 251 hostages on 7 October 2023.
Hamas still holds 50 hostages, with fewer than half of them believed to be alive, after most of the rest were released in ceasefire agreements or other deals.
Israel’s offensive in Gaza has killed more than 57,000 Palestinians, more than half of them women and children, according to Gaza’s health ministry, which does not distinguish between civilians and combatants in its count.
US President Donald Trump has said he is closing in on another ceasefire agreement that would see more hostages released and potentially wind down the war.
But after two days of talks this week with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, there were no signs of a breakthrough.
Keep up with all the latest news from the UK and around the world by following Sky News
The latest fatalities in Gaza comes as a 20-year-old Palestinian-American man was beaten to death by settlers in the Israeli-occupied West Bank on Friday, the Palestinian Health ministry said.
Sayafollah Musallet, also known as Saif, was killed during a confrontation between Palestinians and settlers in Sinjil, north of Ramallah, the ministry said.
A second man, Hussein Al-Shalabi, 23, died after being shot in the chest.
Mr Musallet’s family, from Tampa Florida, has called on the US State Department to lead an “immediate investigation”.
A State Department spokesperson said it was aware of the incident but it had no further comment “out of respect for the privacy of the family and loved ones” of the reported victim.
The Israeli military said the confrontation broke out after Palestinians threw rocks at Israelis, lightly injuring them.
As investigators continue to piece together the full picture, early findings of the Air India crash are pointing towards a critical area of concern — the aircraft’s fuel control switches.
The flight, bound for London Gatwick, crashed just moments after taking off from Ahmedabad airport on 12 June, killing all but one of the 242 people on board the plane and at least 19 on the ground.
According to the preliminary report by India’s Aircraft Accident Investigation Bureau (AAIB), the two engine fuel control switches on the plane were moved from the “RUN” to “CUTOFF” position.
These switches control fuel flow to the engines and should only be used when the aircraft is on ground, first to start the engines before a flight and later to shut them down at the gate.
They are designed so they’re unlikely to be changed accidentally, pointing to possible human error on the Air India flight.
The findings include the final conversation between the pilots and show there was confusion in the cockpit as well.
When one pilot asked the other why he cut off the fuel, he responded to say he did not do so.
The Air India plane before the crash. Pic: Takagi
Moments later, a Mayday call was made from the cockpit, but the plane could not regain power quickly enough and plummeted to the ground.
Captain Amit Singh, founder of Safety Matters Foundation, an organisation dedicated to aviation safety, told Sky News: “This exchange indicates that the engine shutdowns were uncommanded.
“However, the report does not identify the cause – whether it was crew error, mechanical malfunction, or electronic failure.”
Previous warning of ‘possible fuel switch issue’
“The Boeing 787 uses spring-loaded locking mechanisms on its fuel control switches to prevent accidental movement,” Mr Singh explained.
But a previous bulletin from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) “warned that these switches might be installed with the locking feature disengaged,” he said.
This could “make them susceptible to unintended movement due to vibration, contact, or quadrant flex”, he added.
The plane’s tail lodged in a building. Pic: Reuters
Speaking to Sky News, aviation expert Terry Tozner said: “The take-off was normal, the aircraft rotated at the correct speed left the ground and almost immediately, the cut-off switches were selected to off, one then two.
“But nobody has said with any clarity whether or not the latch mechanisms worked okay on this particular aircraft. So we can only assume that they were in normal working order.”
In India, there has been a backlash over the findings, with some saying the report points to pilot error without much information and almost dismisses the possibility of a mechanical or electric failure.
Indian government responds
India’s civil aviation minister Kinjarapu Ram Mohan Naidu has been quick to respond, saying: “We care for the welfare and the wellbeing of pilots so let’s not jump to any conclusions at this stage, let us wait for the final report.
“I believe we have the most wonderful workforce of pilots and crew in the whole world.”
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India plane crash survivor carries brother’s coffin
Both pilots were experienced, with around 19,000 flying hours between them, including more than 9,000 on Boeing 787s.
The report says the aircraft maintenance checks were on schedule and that there are no signs of fuel contamination or a bird strike.
So far, no safety recommendations have been issued to Boeing or General Electric, the engine manufacturers.
Concern over destroyed flight recorder
Mr Singh said “the survivability of the flight recorders also raises concern”.
The plane’s rear flight recorder, designed to withstand impact forces of 3,400 Gs and temperatures of 1,100C for 60 minutes, “was damaged beyond recovery”.
Read more:
Everything you need to know about the crash
Air India’s lone survivor is nothing short of miracle
“The Ram Air Turbine (RAT), which deploys automatically when both engines fail and power drops below a threshold, was observed as deployed in CCTV footage when the aircraft was approximately 60ft above ground level,” Mr Singh said.
“This suggests that the dual engine failure likely occurred before the official timestamp of 08:08:42 UTC, implying a possible discrepancy.”
India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi visiting the crash site. Pic: X/AP
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Mr Singh said it was also “of particular note” that the plane’s emergency locator transmitter (ELT) did not send any signal after the crash.
“Was the ELT damaged, unarmed, mis-wired, or malfunctioning?” he said.
The report has generated more questions than answers on topics including human error, power source failures and mechanical or electrical malfunction.
The final report is expected to take a year. Meanwhile, families grapple with the unimaginable loss of loved ones in one of the worst disasters in India’s aviation history.
Donald Trump has announced he will impose a 30% tariff on imports from the European Union from 1 August.
The tariffs could make everything from French cheese and Italian leather goods to German electronics and Spanish pharmaceuticals more expensive in the US.
Mr Trump has also imposed a 30% tariff on goods from Mexico, according to a post from his Truth Social account.
Announcing the moves in separate letters on the account, the president said the US trade deficit was a national security threat.
In his letter to the EU, he wrote: “We have had years to discuss our trading relationship with The European Union, and we have concluded we must move away from these long-term, large, and persistent, trade Deficits, engendered by your tariff, and non-Tariff, policies, and trade barriers.
“Our relationship has been, unfortunately, far from reciprocal.”
In his letter to Mexico, Mr Trump said he did not think the country had done enough to stop the US from turning into a “narco-trafficking playground”.
The president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, said today that the EU could adopt “proportionate countermeasures” if the US proceeds with imposing the 30% tariff.
Ms von der Leyen, who heads the EU’s executive arm, said in a statement that the bloc remained ready “to continue working towards an agreement by Aug 1”.
“Few economies in the world match the European Union’s level of openness and adherence to fair trading practices,” she continued.
“We will take all necessary steps to safeguard EU interests, including the adoption of proportionate countermeasures if required.”
Ms von der Leyen has also said imposing tariffs on EU exports would “disrupt essential transatlantic supply chains”.
Meanwhile, Dutch Prime Minister Dick Schoof said on the X social media platform that Mr Trump’s announcement was “very concerning and not the way forward”.
He added: “The European Commission can count on our full support. As the EU we must remain united and resolute in pursuing an outcome with the United States that is mutually beneficial.”
Mexico’s economy ministry said a bilateral working group aims to reach an alternative to the 30% US tariffs before they are due to take effect.
The country was informed by the US that it would receive a letter about the tariffs, the ministry’s statement said, adding that Mexico was negotiating.
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Trump plans to hit Canada with 35% tariff
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How ‘liberation day’ unfolded
Trump’s tariff threats and delays
On his so-called “liberation day” in April, Mr Trump unleashed “reciprocal tariffs” on many of America’s trade partners.
The US president said he was targeting countries with which America has a trade imbalance.
However, since then he’s backed down in a spiralling tit-for-tat tariff face-off with China, and struck a deal with the UK.
The US imposed a 20% tariff on imported goods from the EU in April but it was later paused and the bloc has since been paying a baseline tariff of 10% on goods it exports to the US.
In May, while the US and EU where holding trade negotiations, Mr Trump threated to impose a 50% tariff on the bloc as talks didn’t progress as he would have liked.
However, he later announced he was delaying the imposition of that tariff while negotiations over a trade deal took place.
As of earlier this week, the EU’s executive commission, which handles trade issues for the bloc’s 27-member nations, said its leaders were still hoping to strike a trade deal with the Trump administration.
Without one, the EU said it was prepared to retaliate with tariffs on hundreds of American products, ranging from beef and auto parts to beer and Boeing airplanes.
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