France election: Marine Le Pen on the brink of power, as Emmanuel Macron’s big gamble looks set to fail
In France, politics is happening at a ferocious pace.
This country – big, wealthy, influential and vital to the stability of Europe – is suddenly facing a moment of tumult. Change, and perhaps really big change, is looming.
There are election posters up everywhere, candidates staring out at you with fixed grins and slogans. But there is one face that seems to appear more than anyone else – Marine Le Pen.
Posters of Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella
A fixture in French politics for a quarter of a century, she has stood for president, rebuilt her party, and even remoulded France’s far-right conversation. But now, more than ever, she sits on the brink of real power.
After Sunday’s election, the polls suggest that her far-right Rassemblement National (RN) will be the biggest winner, even allowing for the curious complexities of the French system.
A left-wing alliance will probably come second with the centre-ground party of President Emmanuel Macron trailing along in third.
If – and it’s a huge, wobbly, unreliable if – the RN were to get most seats in the National Assembly, the country would be transformed.
Madame Le Pen’s protege, the 28-year-old Jordan Bardella, would inevitably be installed as prime minister, working uneasily alongside a president who loathes pretty much everything that the RN stands for.
Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron. Pic: Reuters
Mr Bardella would want much tougher laws against immigration, and against supporting immigrants.
He would also want to unwind some of Macron’s economic reforms and is much more sceptical about European integration than Macron.
How, you might wonder, could these two politicians work together in any meaningful way?
It would pave the way for instability, but also for the RN to flex real political clout.
And it would also lead to Ms Le Pen, once again, running for president. And as I write this, she is the favourite to win that contest, too.
But back to that big “if”.
Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella. Pic: Reuters
France has a two-round voting system, with a week in between ballots. Candidates knocked out in the first round often advise their supporters who to back in the decisive second ballot. People might change their minds anyway.
The results from the first influence the way people behave in the second. A higher turnout may help the RN, except in the big cities, where it will probably help their opponents. It is a confusing, noisy mechanism almost everyone agrees on two things.
Firstly, the RN, led by Le Pen but also focused upon Mr Bardella, is destined to win more seats than any other party. And, secondly, this is all the more frenetic because it came out of the blue.
Make no mistake, a month ago, none of this was predicted. Sure, everyone knew that the Renaissance party of President Emmanuel Macron was likely to suffer a bloody nose during the European elections.
The RN, powered by disaffection with Macron and the populist, anti-immigration, “France First” rhetoric of Ms Le Pen and the youthful Mr Bardella, was certain to prosper.
But history is littered with mid-term elections that produce curious results. Macron, surely, would just shrug it off.
Jordan Bardella could soon take a key role within France’s government. Pic: Reuters
Except he didn’t.
Humbled by the scale of his defeat, Macron went on French television within minutes to announce that he was doing the very thing that his enemies in the RN had demanded – using his presidential power to dissolve parliament and call for fresh elections within weeks.
His logic was that the nation – his nation – would somehow come to its senses and turn its back on radical politics in general, and the RN in particular. And the evidence is that, fuelled by his own iron-clad self-belief, he got that wrong.
So what’s happening? More than anything, this is about two big political waves meeting each other. The first one has to do with Macron himself, whose popularity has simply declined. The second has to do with the ripple of populism that is moving through so many countries.
When he stormed to the presidency seven years ago, he was seen by many as the fresh new start that France needed – a dynamic young man, just 39 years old, who would shake up the nation and bring back some sense of dynamism and glory.
In the run-off against Ms Le Pen, he pitched himself as the politician of optimism, and her as a figure of hate. It worked – he won easily.
His follow-up victory a couple of years ago was less overwhelming but still comfortable. But then he lost control of the parliament and his control waned.
The old complaints came back – that he is, to quote an accusation I’ve heard countless times – the “president for the rich”; that he doesn’t understand the problems of normal people; that his interest is in promoting himself, not his country.
During the violent riots in Nanterre last year, Mr Macron’s government looked hopelessly leaden, while his efforts to raise the retirement age caused widespread fury.
His opponents from the centre have fragmented but his rivals on the left and right have become emboldened.
So while Mr Macron has tried to sound reasonable and emollient, he’s faced strident, unapologetic rhetoric from left and right, which has found an ever-greater audience.
Mr Macron is still a young man by the standards of global political leaders but perhaps his nation is now fed up with him, particularly at a time when so much space in the European political arena is being taken by leaders who favour strident opinions over considered nuance.
Giorgia Meloni, prime minister of Italy. Pic: AP
The French just have to look over their border with Italy, after all, to see how Giorgia Meloni’s brand of right-wing populism has prospered.
Look, perhaps, at the success in the Netherlands of Geert Wilders, a man who, like Ms Le Pen, spent decades in the political margins, confident that one day his time would come.
Or consider the volume of support given to the farmers who brought France’s motorways to a halt, angry with governments in Paris and Brussels.
The RN has tapped into that discontent and also benefited from it.
Dutch anti-Islam politician Geert Wilders of the PVV, or Party for Freedom, voting in the European election in The Hague, Netherlands. Pic: AP
Sky News Data has analysed voting data from across France and drawn a few clear links that occur again and again.
In places where unemployment is high, such as near the border with Spain, or where disposable income is low, such as northwest France, the RN scores highly.
Madame Le Pen herself represents one of these places in the assembly – the 11th constituency of Pas-de-Calais. It includes Henin-Beaumont, a coal-mining town where she used to be a councillor and which is now an RN stronghold.
All around it are slag-heaps, now covered in grass. They are a reminder of the town’s past and also induce a widespread and lingering sense of resentment that the area, and its people, have been left behind.
If politics is a horseshoe, this is Mr Macron’s problem. The far-left leaders, like Jean-Luc Melenchon, condemn the President for not doing enough to protect workers and for damaging the fabric of society. So, too, do Ms Le Pen, Mr Bardella and the far-right.
Read more:
Growing unease in Paris suburbs over National Rally’s lead
French economy hit by Macron’s election gamble
Mbappe urges young people to ignore extremes
Their solutions are different, with Mr Melenchon’s rhetoric focusing on tax rises for the rich and stronger workers’ rights, while Ms Le Pen talks about immigration and protectionism, but perhaps the specifics don’t matter.
The fact is that after years of leadership from the centre, France is now increasingly looking to its margins.
We know the RN will do well, so the question is now just how well. And if they don’t take an absolute majority, and if Mr Macron resists appointing Mr Bardella as prime minister, what happens then?
Will the French government grind to a halt, gummed up by political divisions that stop anything being done?
Could Macron, as proud a leader as you’ll find, ever really be pushed into resignation?
We simply don’t know. And that is what makes this election so enthralling but also slightly unnerving.
World
Wife of murdered Saudi journalist says ‘zero justice’ has been served after Trump dismisses US intelligence findings
The wife of murdered Saudi Arabian journalist Jamal Khashoggi says “zero justice” has been served over her husband’s death.
Mr Khashoggi, a strident critic of the kingdom, was slain by Saudi agents in an operation in Istanbul in 2018, and American intelligence agencies concluded Mohammed bin Salman had ordered his capture or killing.
The crown prince has denied ordering the operation, but acknowledged responsibility as Riyadh’s de-facto ruler.
He was hosted at the White House on Tuesday for the first time in seven years, and Donald Trump defended him and cast doubt upon his own country’s assessments.
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Saudi leader asked about murdered journalist
Mr Trump derided Mr Khashoggi as “extremely controversial” and said “a lot of people didn’t like that gentleman”.
Hanan Khashoggi told Sky News’ The World With Yalda Hakim she was “disappointed” by the remarks, as she demanded compensation from the crown prince.
He has described the killing of her husband as a “huge mistake”.
Addressing Mr Trump directly, Ms Khashoggi said she would be willing to meet the US president to tell him about the Washington Post writer, who she said was “a great man, and a professional, and he was a brave man as well”.
A vigil for Khashoggi outside the Saudi consulate in Istanbul, where he was killed. Pic: Reuters
‘They destroyed my life’
Ms Khashoggi said her husband was not controversial or unlikeable – but even if he was, “it doesn’t justify the action of kidnapping him, torturing him, killing him and dismantling his body”.
She also said she would meet the crown prince and “ask him to retrieve Jamal’s body, so I can bury him in a decent, good way”, as well as ask for financial compensation.
“They killed my husband, they destroyed my life,” she added. “They have to compensate me.”
Hanan Khashoggi
Trump defends MBS
Asked about the murder in the Oval Office, Mr Trump said: “Whether you like him or didn’t like him, things happen.
“But he (Bin Salman) knew nothing about it, and we can leave it at that.
“You don’t have to embarrass our guest by asking a question like that.”
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The prince and president: What happened?
Mr Trump even celebrated the Saudi leader for the kingdom’s human rights record, without providing specific details.
“I’m very proud of the job he’s done,” he said.
Human rights groups say Saudi authorities continue to harshly repress dissent by arresting human rights defenders, journalists and political dissidents.
They also highlight a surge in executions in Saudi Arabia they connect to an effort to suppress internal dissent.
The crown prince announced Saudi Arabia was increasing its planned investments in the US to $1trn, up from the $600bn the Saudis announced they would pour into the US when Mr Trump visited the kingdom in May.
The warning was meant for British parliamentarians, of course, but MI5 and the government are also trying to send a signal to China.
We know what you are doing, and in ministers’ words today we “won’t stand for it”.
But in the wake of the collapsed China spying case last month, the security services also want to reestablish a badly dented sense of deterrence.
Politics latest: China responds to MI5’s spy warning to MPs
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Security minister accuses China of interference
That case against two British men accused of spying for Beijing fell apart because officials would not use the words “enemy” or “national security threat” to describe China.
The failure projected a sense of weakness in the face of Chinese espionage efforts, something the government is keen to dispel.
(L-R) Christopher Cash and Christopher Berry had the charges against them withdrawn in September. Pics: Reuters
Those efforts remain persistent and dangerous, security officials insist.
China has always aggressively sought the official and commercial secrets of Western nations.
It regards that mission as a patriotic duty, an essential part of a national project to catch up with and then overtake the West.
In the words of Britain’s security minister, Dan Jarvis, on Tuesday, China seeks “to interfere in our sovereign affairs in favour of its own interests”.
Read more:
Parliamentarians warned of spying attempts from China agents
Indeed, much of China’s technological and economic progress was, until recently, built on intellectual property stolen from rival nations.
Its private sector has been notorious for ripping off and reverse engineering Western know-how, pilfered from joint venture partners or through commercial espionage.
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Intelligence agencies say the Chinese have also hoovered up vast amounts of personal data from all of us through social media platforms like TikTok and other methods, collecting in bulk for now, for sifting and harvesting later.
Officially, the Chinese government denies all these allegations. It has to be said that Western spies are also hard at work snooping on China.
But critics say Western nations have been naive and too trusting of the Chinese threat.
While the British government remains unsure whether to identify China as an enemy or simply a commercial rival, an ambivalence remains, which Beijing will continue doing its best to exploit.
Mass killings and millions forced to flee for their lives have made Sudan the “epicentre of suffering in the world”, according to the UN’s humanitarian affairs chief.
About 12 million people are believed to have been displaced and at least 40,000 killed in the civil war – but aid groups say the true death toll could be far greater.
Tom Fletcher, the UN’s under-secretary-general for humanitarian affairs, told Sky’s The World With Yalda Hakim the situation was “horrifying”.
“It’s utterly grim right now – it’s the epicentre of suffering in the world,” he said of Sudan.
The war between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) – who were once allies – started in Khartoum in April 2023 but has spread across the country.
A child receives treatment at a camp in Tawila after fleeing Al Fashir . Pic: AP
The fighting has inflicted almost unimaginable misery on a nation that was already suffering a humanitarian crisis.
Famine has been declared in some areas and Mr Fletcher said there was a “sense of rampant brutality and impunity” in the east African nation.
“I spoke to so many people who told me stories of mass executions, mass rape, sexual violence being weaponised as part of the conflict,” he said.
The fall of a key city
Last month, the RSF captured Al Fashir – the capital of North Darfur state – after a siege of more than 18 months.
Hundreds have been killed and tens of thousands forced to flee, according to the UN and aid groups.
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Explained: Key Sudan city falls
The World Health Organisation said more than 450 people alone were reportedly killed at a maternity hospital in the city.
RSF fighters also went house to house to murder civilians and carried out sexual assault and rape, according to aid workers and displaced people.
The journey to escape Al Fashir goes through areas with no access to food, water or medical help – and Mr Fletcher said people had described to him the “horrors” of trying to make it out.
“One woman [was] carrying her dead neighbour’s malnourished child – and then she herself was attacked on the road as she fled towards Tawila,” he told Sky News.
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Investigating thousands missing in Sudan’s war
Such is the violence in Al Fashir, blood from mass killings appears to stain the sand in satellite images from Yale’s Humanitarian Research Lab, Mr Fletcher added.
“We’ve got to make sure there are teams going in to investigate these atrocities. Al Fashir is a crime scene right now,” he said.
“But we’ve also got to make sure we’ve got protection for civilians from the future atrocities.”
Children at the forefront of suffering
Mr Fletcher told Yalda Hakim that children had “borne the brunt” and made up one in five of those killed in Al Fashir.
He said a child he met “recoiled from me” and “flinched” when he gestured towards a Manchester City logo on his shirt when they were kicking a ball around.
“This is a six-year-old, so what has he seen and experienced to be that terrified of other people?” he asked.
He’s urging the international community to boost funding to help civilians, and a “much more vigorous, energised diplomacy” to try to end the fighting.
“This can’t be so complex, so difficult, that the world can’t fix it,” he told Sky News.
“And we’ve seen some momentum. We’ve seen the quad – Egypt, America, Saudi, the UAE just recently – getting more engaged.
“I’m in daily contact with them all, including the White House envoy, Dr Massad Boulos, but we need to sustain that diplomatic engagement and show the creativity and patience that’s needed.”
Read more:
Genocide unfolding in Darfur, warns Sudanese government
‘Tens of thousands killed in two days’ in Sudan city
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In full: Monday’s The World
Hopes of an imminent end to the violence currently look unlikely.
Sudan’s military leader, General Abdel-Fattah Burhan, said on Friday that his forces would not stop until the RSF is wiped out.
“This war will not come to an end with a truce, but when rebels are destroyed,” he said – according to a statement from Sudan’s ruling council.
“We call on all Sudanese to join the fight, and for those who can carry weapons to come forward.”
The RSF and the Sudanese army have previously agreed to various ceasefire proposals during their two-and-a-half-year-old war, but none have succeeded.
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