France election: Marine Le Pen on the brink of power, as Emmanuel Macron’s big gamble looks set to fail
In France, politics is happening at a ferocious pace.
This country – big, wealthy, influential and vital to the stability of Europe – is suddenly facing a moment of tumult. Change, and perhaps really big change, is looming.
There are election posters up everywhere, candidates staring out at you with fixed grins and slogans. But there is one face that seems to appear more than anyone else – Marine Le Pen.
Posters of Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella
A fixture in French politics for a quarter of a century, she has stood for president, rebuilt her party, and even remoulded France’s far-right conversation. But now, more than ever, she sits on the brink of real power.
After Sunday’s election, the polls suggest that her far-right Rassemblement National (RN) will be the biggest winner, even allowing for the curious complexities of the French system.
A left-wing alliance will probably come second with the centre-ground party of President Emmanuel Macron trailing along in third.
If – and it’s a huge, wobbly, unreliable if – the RN were to get most seats in the National Assembly, the country would be transformed.
Madame Le Pen’s protege, the 28-year-old Jordan Bardella, would inevitably be installed as prime minister, working uneasily alongside a president who loathes pretty much everything that the RN stands for.
Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron. Pic: Reuters
Mr Bardella would want much tougher laws against immigration, and against supporting immigrants.
He would also want to unwind some of Macron’s economic reforms and is much more sceptical about European integration than Macron.
How, you might wonder, could these two politicians work together in any meaningful way?
It would pave the way for instability, but also for the RN to flex real political clout.
And it would also lead to Ms Le Pen, once again, running for president. And as I write this, she is the favourite to win that contest, too.
But back to that big “if”.
Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella. Pic: Reuters
France has a two-round voting system, with a week in between ballots. Candidates knocked out in the first round often advise their supporters who to back in the decisive second ballot. People might change their minds anyway.
The results from the first influence the way people behave in the second. A higher turnout may help the RN, except in the big cities, where it will probably help their opponents. It is a confusing, noisy mechanism almost everyone agrees on two things.
Firstly, the RN, led by Le Pen but also focused upon Mr Bardella, is destined to win more seats than any other party. And, secondly, this is all the more frenetic because it came out of the blue.
Make no mistake, a month ago, none of this was predicted. Sure, everyone knew that the Renaissance party of President Emmanuel Macron was likely to suffer a bloody nose during the European elections.
The RN, powered by disaffection with Macron and the populist, anti-immigration, “France First” rhetoric of Ms Le Pen and the youthful Mr Bardella, was certain to prosper.
But history is littered with mid-term elections that produce curious results. Macron, surely, would just shrug it off.
Jordan Bardella could soon take a key role within France’s government. Pic: Reuters
Except he didn’t.
Humbled by the scale of his defeat, Macron went on French television within minutes to announce that he was doing the very thing that his enemies in the RN had demanded – using his presidential power to dissolve parliament and call for fresh elections within weeks.
His logic was that the nation – his nation – would somehow come to its senses and turn its back on radical politics in general, and the RN in particular. And the evidence is that, fuelled by his own iron-clad self-belief, he got that wrong.
So what’s happening? More than anything, this is about two big political waves meeting each other. The first one has to do with Macron himself, whose popularity has simply declined. The second has to do with the ripple of populism that is moving through so many countries.
When he stormed to the presidency seven years ago, he was seen by many as the fresh new start that France needed – a dynamic young man, just 39 years old, who would shake up the nation and bring back some sense of dynamism and glory.
In the run-off against Ms Le Pen, he pitched himself as the politician of optimism, and her as a figure of hate. It worked – he won easily.
His follow-up victory a couple of years ago was less overwhelming but still comfortable. But then he lost control of the parliament and his control waned.
The old complaints came back – that he is, to quote an accusation I’ve heard countless times – the “president for the rich”; that he doesn’t understand the problems of normal people; that his interest is in promoting himself, not his country.
During the violent riots in Nanterre last year, Mr Macron’s government looked hopelessly leaden, while his efforts to raise the retirement age caused widespread fury.
His opponents from the centre have fragmented but his rivals on the left and right have become emboldened.
So while Mr Macron has tried to sound reasonable and emollient, he’s faced strident, unapologetic rhetoric from left and right, which has found an ever-greater audience.
Mr Macron is still a young man by the standards of global political leaders but perhaps his nation is now fed up with him, particularly at a time when so much space in the European political arena is being taken by leaders who favour strident opinions over considered nuance.
Giorgia Meloni, prime minister of Italy. Pic: AP
The French just have to look over their border with Italy, after all, to see how Giorgia Meloni’s brand of right-wing populism has prospered.
Look, perhaps, at the success in the Netherlands of Geert Wilders, a man who, like Ms Le Pen, spent decades in the political margins, confident that one day his time would come.
Or consider the volume of support given to the farmers who brought France’s motorways to a halt, angry with governments in Paris and Brussels.
The RN has tapped into that discontent and also benefited from it.
Dutch anti-Islam politician Geert Wilders of the PVV, or Party for Freedom, voting in the European election in The Hague, Netherlands. Pic: AP
Sky News Data has analysed voting data from across France and drawn a few clear links that occur again and again.
In places where unemployment is high, such as near the border with Spain, or where disposable income is low, such as northwest France, the RN scores highly.
Madame Le Pen herself represents one of these places in the assembly – the 11th constituency of Pas-de-Calais. It includes Henin-Beaumont, a coal-mining town where she used to be a councillor and which is now an RN stronghold.
All around it are slag-heaps, now covered in grass. They are a reminder of the town’s past and also induce a widespread and lingering sense of resentment that the area, and its people, have been left behind.
If politics is a horseshoe, this is Mr Macron’s problem. The far-left leaders, like Jean-Luc Melenchon, condemn the President for not doing enough to protect workers and for damaging the fabric of society. So, too, do Ms Le Pen, Mr Bardella and the far-right.
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Their solutions are different, with Mr Melenchon’s rhetoric focusing on tax rises for the rich and stronger workers’ rights, while Ms Le Pen talks about immigration and protectionism, but perhaps the specifics don’t matter.
The fact is that after years of leadership from the centre, France is now increasingly looking to its margins.
We know the RN will do well, so the question is now just how well. And if they don’t take an absolute majority, and if Mr Macron resists appointing Mr Bardella as prime minister, what happens then?
Will the French government grind to a halt, gummed up by political divisions that stop anything being done?
Could Macron, as proud a leader as you’ll find, ever really be pushed into resignation?
We simply don’t know. And that is what makes this election so enthralling but also slightly unnerving.
It “cuts my heart” and is a “betrayal”.
This was the response of a Ukrainian soldier in a frontline combat regiment directly affected by Donald Trump’s decision to pause US military support to Ukraine.
Serhii, 45, maintains a unit of US-supplied Bradley infantry fighting vehicles that are defending an area of eastern Ukraine from attacking Russian forces.
The halt to American military aid – if sustained – means there will be no new ammunition and no ability to repair any of the vehicles when they are damaged – a constant risk.
Ukraine war latest: Follow live updates
On a recent mission by the 425th Storming Regiment “Skala”, three Bradleys went into battle towards the direction of the city of Pokrovsk, an area of heavy clashes.
Only two returned after the other was hit by the Russian side.
Troops said it would be for Ukraine to defend their land without US military support
“It’s going to be very hard,” Serhii said, standing next to a large Bradley, covered by a camouflage net and tucked under a line of trees in the Donetsk region.
“These vehicles are really good. You can fight back with them. And not just defend, you can even advance. It’s a shame we didn’t have this equipment two or three years ago.”
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Trump pauses military aid to Ukraine – what now?
The regiment has been using Bradleys for a number of months. Serhii is the lead mechanic.
The tracked vehicles, armed with a chain gun that can fire 200 rounds per minute, were first developed in the 1980s but have been fitted with modern reactive armour that means they can survive drone strikes, rocket attacks and the shrapnel from artillery rounds.
“The vehicle’s protection… is fantastic,” Serhii said, with clear admiration for the equipment compared with Soviet-era fighting vehicles that many Ukrainian troops have to use.
Soliders said the Bradley infantry vehicles are good for advancing, not just defence
He said the crew of one of his Bradleys was hit by two rocket-propelled grenades but was able to continue driving and was unharmed.
Serhii, who comes from the Donetsk region, said he felt betrayed by Mr Trump’s decision to halt such crucial support.
The US president ordered the move as he attempts to put pressure on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to negotiate a ceasefire deal with Russia.
“Although I’m not a politician, it’s a betrayal for us, for the guys who are defending Ukraine,” the soldier said.
Inside a US-supplied Bradley vehicle
Asked how he felt when he heard the news about the US president’s decision, Serhii said: “The latest news cuts my heart, I can answer you that way. It cuts my heart… If politicians solve issues this way, just by halting weapons supply in one move, that’s criminal.”
He signalled it would be harder for Ukrainian troops to defend their land without the US military support – but they would still fight.
“Even without this weapon, we believe we will move forward,” he said.
“They [the Russians] have to retreat, no matter what. The guys didn’t take up arms here for nothing, and they stand together. Together, all of us, as one, will defeat this enemy.”
As for whether he had a message for Mr Trump, the soldier said: “Don’t stop military aid. Politics is politics, but the people, I believe, are the most important.
“It will be very hard for us without such equipment. This equipment is good; it allows us to show results. And we will keep showing them. We’ve shown them before and we will keep showing them. That’s how it is. Thank you.”
Fighting ‘for my motherland’
Soldier Sedoi said he is ‘tired’ of the war
Sky News watched as two crews prepared their fighting vehicles for a potential mission on Thursday evening.
Sedoi, 41, commands one of the Bradleys and operates the gun.
He said the American-supplied vehicle gives him confidence when he goes into battle – and was also likely a scary prospect for Russian troops to have to encounter.
“We make a lot of noise. Everything catches fire and burns… It’s a good vehicle,” he said.
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Will Kyiv fall without US support?
Sedoi said he did not have a reaction to the news about the halt to American military support, saying: “I don’t get involved in their politics.”
However, he signalled he did want an end to the war – even if it meant Russia keeping some of the land it has seized.
“Let it end, so people stop dying. Because a lot of people have died,” he said.
Read more:
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Recently recovered from a shrapnel wound, Sedoi said he volunteered to fight after Vladimir Putin launched his full-scale war more than three years ago because of Russia’s brutality.
“I’ve heard what they do when they enter villages, what they do with children and women… I don’t want them to go any further… That’s why I’m here.
“But, to be honest, I’m getting tired of it.”
Yet still he and his fellow soldiers battle on. Asked why he was fighting, the soldier said: “For my motherland.”
A warning by Donald Trump to Vladimir Putin to stop “pounding” Ukraine or else, appears to have fallen on deaf ears after another night of devastating Russian strikes.
The persistent pummelling of Ukrainian towns and cities also follows a decision by the US president to stop sharing American intelligence and weapons with Kyiv – a move that is directly hampering the Ukrainian military’s ability to defend their skies from the Russian onslaught.
In the deadliest attack overnight, at least 11 people were killed and 30 wounded, including five children, in the town of Dobropillia, about 15 miles from the frontline in the Donestsk region of eastern Ukraine.
Ukraine war latest: Follow live updates
The Ukrainian police service said a Russian ballistic missile, rockets and attack drones hit eight multi-storey buildings as well as a shopping centre and dozens of cars.
Firefighters work at the site of the strike. Pic: Reuters/State Emergency Service of Ukraine
Pic: Reuters/State Emergency Service of Ukraine
“Some buildings were burnt down almost completely,” the national police of Ukraine said in a post on its Telegram social media channel.
Another three civilians were killed and seven injured in a drone attack on the Kharkiv region in the northeast of the country, according to a separate post by the interior ministry.
Just hours earlier, the US president posted a warning to the Kremlin on social media.
“Based on the fact that Russia is absolutely ‘pounding’ Ukraine on the battlefield right now, I am strongly considering large-scale banking sanctions, sanctions, and tariffs on Russia until a cease fire and FINAL SETTLEMENT AGREEMENT ON PEACE IS REACHED,” he wrote.
“To Russia and Ukraine, get to the table right now, before it is too late. Thank you!!!”
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Trump: ‘Ukraine difficult to deal with’
Kyiv will be watching closely to see whether Moscow’s continuing attacks will prompt Mr Trump to carry out his threat.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has been in crisis mode ever since Mr Trump returned to office and started attacking his record on the war, falsely calling him a dictator and even claiming – again erroneously – that Ukraine was to blame for Russia’s invasion.
Sky News on the ground in Dobropillia 24hrs before strike
A Sky News team was in Dobropillia 24 hours before the attack – stopping off to grab food at a pizza restaurant that was close to the site of at least two of the incoming strikes.
The restaurant is on a road of shops, including a clothes store and a small grocery outlet.
The town, which used to be home to 28,000 residents before Russia’s full-scale war, feels far more battle-hardened than areas further away from the frontline.
Fighting has been raging for months between invading Russian forces and Ukrainian troops, just over a dozen miles away, around the city of Pokrovsk.
Despite the closeness of the war, however, many civilians, including children, still live in Dobropillia.
In the most significant blow, Washington has paused the sharing on intelligence with its Ukrainian partners, instantly making it far harder for Ukraine to have a clear picture on the movement of Russian forces and weapons, while also hampering the ability of the Ukrainian armed forces to effectively conduct targeting attacks against Russian positions.
Read more:
The most significant part of Zelenskyy’s olive branch to Trump
Would the world be more peaceful if women were in charge?
A decision to stop the flow of military support to Ukraine will also have a huge impact on the country’s ability to keep defending itself.
The US has been Kyiv’s largest and most important supplier of arms, including the Patriot air defence system – the only piece of equipment in Ukraine’s arsenal that has the ability to take down ballistic missiles.
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