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Becoming prime minister is a shock. Not so much the moment of being elected – any sensible democratic politician knows that opinion polls can be wrong and gets ready for all eventualities.

No incoming prime minister can ever be fully prepared for the demands of the job, placed on them from day one, when – among many other demands – they are taken aside to be briefed about their role in a nuclear war.

The process is particularly challenging in the UK because the change is so quick. There are no weeks of transition as in most other countries. Nobody else does it like us.

Keir Starmer
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Keir Starmer has no experience of government

As Tony Blair remarked to Alastair Campbell: “Imagine preparing for a new job by working flat out travelling the country for six weeks and then go a few nights without sleep.”

If this general election goes to usual form either Prime Minister Keir Starmer or Prime Minister Rishi Sunak will be installed in 10 Downing Street by lunchtime the day after the vote.

Neither of them will have had any sleep the night before, waiting for the declarations in their own constituencies into the small hours and then dealing with the fallout from the results elsewhere.

If he has stayed in touch with reality, Sunak would certainly be flabbergasted by victory, given the general expectation that he would lose.

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Re-election to the job of premier should hold no other surprises beyond trying to step around the elephant traps he has carefully dug for the next prime minister, assuming that it would not be him.

First-timer Starmer would face the challenge of taking on a job and lifestyle which only 56 people have ever experienced before.

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Becoming prime minister at an election with a change of governing party is even rarer. There have been 13 general elections in the last 50 years but only three handovers of power between Labour and the Conservatives.

Being a senior minister is not an adequate preparation for Number 10.

Gordon Brown was a hugely powerful chancellor of the exchequer for a decade who regarded himself as a co-prime minister, yet a few months after he took over the top job, a senior Brownite ruefully confessed to me: “We thought it was going to be like the Treasury only bigger. It isn’t. That was handling just one thing. As prime minister everything comes at you from all directions.”

Along with taking tea with Margaret Thatcher, the former finance minister also spent his honeymoon period dealing with terror attacks in London and Glasgow and unexpected summer flooding across England.

Unlike Harold Wilson, James Callaghan, Edward Heath, Thatcher, John Major, Theresa May, Boris Johnson, Liz Truss and Sunak, Starmer has never served in a government as a minister.

Rishi Sunak
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Rishi Sunak campaigning

He shares this lack of experience with David Cameron and Blair, who had been in parliament for 14 years when he became prime minister and a shadow minister for 10.

Cameron had been an MP for nine years when elected prime minister, as would be the case for Starmer, who only became an MP in 2015.

Cameron already knew his way around government having worked as an aide in Conservative headquarters and for senior ministers.

Starmer likes to boast that he had a successful career as a lawyer before entering parliament. He believes that running the “big organisation” of the Crown Prosecution Service should be good preparation for the premiership.

Starmer also says he knows how to cope with a change of style because he switched from poacher as a defence barrister to gamekeeper as director of public prosecutions.

A prime minister who comes at a general election usually has to switch in a moment from all-out campaigning to managing a party, a government and a country.

Except for Cameron whose preparations benefitted from a hung parliament and five days of negotiations to set up the coalition with the Liberal Democrats.

At least general election-elected prime ministers start with a clean sheet of policies and with plenty of jobs to hand out.

Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, clearly the best of pals. Pic: PA
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Tony Blair and Gordon Brown. Pic: PA

Blair admits “the disadvantage of a new government is lack of experience in governing” but he claims “it is also an advantage… we thought the unthinkable. We did the undoable.” His early gambits included shifting PMQs to one half-hour session a week and granting independence to the Bank of England.

This baptism of fire and new beginning perhaps explains why Thatcher, Blair and Cameron are the significant national leaders of recent years, who won re-election, rather than those who took over power by default of internal party machinations.

Sunak can never be a member but Starmer would have a chance to join this distinguished club, although he is circumscribed by the state of the economy and by the things which Tory campaigning has forced him to rule out.

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Incoming prime ministers depend heavily on the staff around them. Someone has to make preparations for government which could be only days away. A leader is occupied fighting an election campaign and must not be seen to be presumptuous or complacent about victory. Officials and even family members are slapped down if they slip saying “when” not “if” about winning.

Blair is credited with pulling off one of the most successful transitions thanks in large part to his team. His chief of staff Jonathan Powell and advisor David Miliband secretly drew up a plan in advance for the government’s first 100 days. Peter Mandelson and Alastair Campbell practically invented the arts of political spinning and media handling in this country. Anji Hunter and Sally Morgan had the delicate task of reaching out to the party and the outside world and managing the appointment of ministers and government advisors. Mistakes are sometimes made when handing out jobs, names may be mixed up, post-it notes dropped or mobile phones mislaid.

Starmer’s key decision in preparation for government was the controversial hiring of a widely respected senior civil servant as his chief of staff.

Liz Truss speaks at the official launch event for the 'Popular Conservatism'.
Pic: Reuters
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Liz Truss. Pic: Reuters

He has made it clear that Sue Gray will take over as top dog from campaign director Morgan McSweeney from the moment of victory. Gray knows everyone in Whitehall after decades of working there. She is expected to oversee Olly Robbins replacing Simon Case as cabinet secretary. She will also have a decisive voice over the appointment of advisors and ministers.

In the past, shadow ministers have had more than a year for “access talks” about their plans with officials in relevant government departments. Sunak withheld permission for these to start until early this year and has now called a snap election, meaning Labour has had barely six months to prepare.

Some of those involved in getting MPs ready for government are worried they are not as ready as they should be. Starmer has shown that he can be ruthless and, if he does become prime minister, there are likely to be nasty shocks for some now assuming they will be ministers in government. Labour already have about 20 more “front bench” spokespeople than there are paid ministerial jobs in government.

In Blair’s case, Mandelson says the “real” and “important” reshuffle shake-out took place after a year in office.

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The head of government has other unavoidable duties. Blair had to cope with the death of Princess Diana within months of being elected. “Why me?” Truss asked of the death of Queen Elizabeth II just days into her premiership.

Before the state opening of parliament on 17 July, the next prime minister will have to represent the UK at NATO’s 75th anniversary summit in Washington between 9 and 11 July with Ukraine at the top of the agenda. A week later he will host the European Political Community at Blenheim Palace – this organisation came into existence after Brexit to improve relations between 50 European nations.

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Prime ministers make what come to be seen as unforced errors – such as Truss’s mini-budget, Cameron’s Brexit referendum and Blair’s invasion of Iraq. They also have to cope with unforeseen events beyond their control, such as the COVID-19 pandemic.

The shocks of the first few weeks as prime minister are likely to be dwarfed by the shocks in the years to come. However hard they have tried to prepare, whether or not they are ready, the job will soon find out a prime minister’s strengths and weaknesses.

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Wes Streeting rules out pay rises for striking resident doctors saying they have ‘squandered goodwill’

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Wes Streeting rules out pay rises for striking resident doctors saying they have 'squandered goodwill'

Resident doctors have “squandered the considerable goodwill” they had with the government by going on strike, Health Secretary Wes Streeting has told them.

The medics – formerly known as junior doctors – finished a five-day strike over pay on Wednesday morning. The group were awarded a close to 30% raise last year but say they want more in an attempt to bring their pay back in line with what they had in 2008.

Mr Streeting previously said he would not negotiate further on pay but would consider taking steps on working conditions.

He has reiterated that stance – and continued to put pressure on negotiations to start again on the government’s terms.

The British Medical Association Resident Doctors Committee, which represents the doctors, have not ruled out further action.

In a letter sent today to the co-chairs of the committee, Mr Streeting thanked them for an invitation to “get back to the negotiating table” – but added the barb that it was “ironic because I never left”.

“I am ready to continue the conversation from where you left it,” he added.

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He went on to say the strikes were “deeply disappointing and entirely unnecessary” – adding that there were “seemingly promising discussions” about improving doctors’ working lives.

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‘No doctor wants to go out on strike’

‘We cannot move on pay’

Mr Streeting criticised the committee, saying they “rushed to strike”.

His letter added: “The consequences of your strike action have been a detrimental impact on patients, your members, your colleagues and the NHS, which might have been worse were it not for the considerable efforts of NHS leaders and front-line staff who stepped up.

“Your action has also been self-defeating, because you have squandered the considerable goodwill you had with me and this government. I cannot in good conscience let patients, or other NHS staff, pay the price for the costs of your decision.”

The health secretary said he wanted to “reset the relationship” between the government and young doctors following the previous industrial action.

Mr Streeting went on to say he is “serious about improving working conditions” but has been clear “we cannot move on pay”.

“This government is prepared to negotiate on areas related to your conditions at work, career progression and tangible measures which would put money in your members’ pockets,” he added.

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Mr Streeting concluded: “I was critical of my predecessors when they closed the door to the Junior Doctors Committee.

“My door remains open to the hope that we can still build the partnership with resident doctors I aspired to when I came in a year ago and, in that spirit, I am happy to meet with you early next week.”

A BMA spokesperson said: “The resident doctors committee has received the letter from Mr Streeting and is considering its response.”

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Companies who pay suppliers late to be fined

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Companies who pay suppliers late to be fined

Companies which continually pay their suppliers late will face fines worth potentially millions of pounds, the prime minister has announced.

Sir Keir Starmer said “It’s time to pay up” as the government is set to unveil plans to give the small business commissioner powers to fine large companies that persistently pay their suppliers late.

Under the new legislation, businesses will have to pay their suppliers within 30 days of receiving a valid invoice, unless otherwise agreed, with spot checks to help identify breaches.

Maximum payment terms of 60 days, reducing to 45 days, will also be introduced as part of the legislation to ensure businesses are paid on time.

Late payments cost the UK economy £11 billion a year and shut down 38 businesses a day, the government said.

The new law will save small and medium businesses time so they can focus on growing their revenue, it added.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves and Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer at the launch of the 10-year health plan in east London. Pic: PA
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Chancellor Rachel Reeves and PM Sir Keir Starmer. Pic: PA

Sir Keir said: “From builders and electricians to freelance designers and manufacturers – too many hardworking people are being forced to spend precious hours chasing payments instead of doing what they do best – growing their businesses.

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“It’s unfair, it’s exhausting, and it’s holding Britain back. So, our message is clear: it’s time to pay up.

“Through our Small Business Plan, we’re not only tackling the scourge of late payments once and for all, but we’re giving small business owners the backing and stability they need for their business to thrive, driving growth across the country through our Plan for Change.”

The late payment crackdown is part of a wider government package, including a move to pump £4bn of financial support into small business start-ups and growth.

This will include £1bn for new firms, with 69,000 start-up loans and mentoring support.

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The value of ‘de minimis’ imports into Britain

The Conservatives said the crackdown will be welcome, but fails to address the “218,000 businesses that have closed under Labour”.

Andrew Griffith, the Tory shadow business secretary, added: “The reality for businesses under Labour is a doubling of business rates, a £25billion jobs tax and a full-on strangulation of employment red tape.

“Only the Conservatives are on the side of the makers and will support businesses across Britain to create jobs and wealth.”

Chancellor Rachel Reeves has increased employers’ national insurance, raised the minimum wage and lowered the threshold at which employers’ national insurance is paid.

The Resolution Foundation said this hits the cost of low-paid and part-time workers the most.

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How is Starmer’s government doing? Here’s what ‘end-of-term’ report from voters says

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How is Starmer's government doing? Here's what 'end-of-term' report from voters says

One year on, how’s Keir Starmer’s government going? We’ve put together an end-of-term report with the help of pollster YouGov.

First, here are the government’s approval ratings – drifting downwards.

It didn’t start particularly high. There has never been a honeymoon.

But here is the big change. Last year’s Labour voters now disapprove of their own government. That wasn’t true at the start – but is now.

And remember, it’s easier to keep your existing voter coalition together than to get new ones from elsewhere.

So we have looked at where voters who backed Labour last year have gone now.

YouGov’s last mega poll shows half of Labour voters last year – 51% – say they would vote for them again if an election was held tomorrow.

Around one in five (19%) say they don’t know who they’d vote for – or wouldn’t vote.

But Labour are also leaking votes to the Lib Dems, Greens and Reform.

These are the main reasons why.

A sense that Labour haven’t delivered on their promises is top – just above the cost of living. Some 22% say they’ve been too right-wing, with a similar number saying Labour have “made no difference”. Immigration and public services are also up there.

Now, YouGov asked people whether they think the cabinet is doing a good or a bad job, and combined the two figures together to get a net score.

John Healey and Bridget Phillipson are on top, but the big beats of Angela Rayner, Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves bottom.

But it’s not over for Labour.

Here’s one scenario – 2024 Labour voters say they would much prefer a Labour-led government over a Conservative one.

But what about a Reform UK-led government? Well, Labour polls even better against them – just 11% of people who voted Labour in 2024 want to see them enter Number 10.

Signs of hope for Keir Starmer. But as Labour MPs head off for their summer holidays, few of their voters would give this government an A*.

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