Bitcoin’s spot price could take a hit after the US Federal Reserve reported some of the worst manufacturing data in recent history, according to several cryptocurrency analysts.

On April 17, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index — a monthly survey of 250 US-based manufacturers — reported the sharpest declines in overall business activity since 2020. 

The data puts Bitcoin (BTC) “under short term pressure,” researchers at Bitunix, a crypto exchange, said in a post on the X platform. They added that Bitcoin could still see a “strong comeback” if its price holds above $83,000 per coin.  

As of April 18, Bitcoin has been trading at approximately $84,000 per coin, according to data from Google Finance.

The Federal Reserve’s bearish report comes as factories brace for the impact of US President Donald Trump’s plans to impose sweeping tariffs on US imports, potentially raising production costs for manufacturers.

“[I]ndicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments all fell and turned negative… suggest[ing] subdued expectations for growth over the next six months,” the report said. 

Related: Trade tensions to speed institutional crypto adoption — Execs

Bad omen for crypto?

Analysts said the combination of rising prices and slowing production could deal a blow to financial markets, including cryptocurrencies. Rising prices limit central banks’ ability to support markets in a downturn. 

“Economic activity is falling off a cliff and any activity that remains, the prices are going up,” Felix Jauvin, a Blockworks macroeconomic analyst, said in a post on the X platform. 

It’s an “[a]bsolute worst scenario for policy makers here especially with no meaningful idea of how permanent tariffs will be,” he added.

However, Bitcoin has been more resilient to recent macroeconomic shocks than stocks or other cryptocurrencies, Binance said in an April research report. 

Since Trump announced his tariff plans on April 2, Bitcoin has traded roughly flat after initially declining but more than 10%, Google Finance data shows. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 — an index of US stocks — is still down by around 7%. 

“Even in the wake of recent tariff announcements, BTC has shown some signs of resilience, holding steady or rebounding on days when traditional risk assets faltered,” Binance said. 

Trump initially sought to impose double-digit levies on virtually all foreign goods but later paused planned tariffs on certain countries. 

He still wants to place high taxes on many Chinese imports, causing concerns among crypto executives who fear a trade war could harm blockchain networks. 

Magazine: Crypto ‘more taboo than OnlyFans,’ says Violetta Zironi, who sold song for 1 BTC

Oregon Attorney General Dan Rayfield is planning a lawsuit against crypto exchange Coinbase, alleging the company is selling unregistered securities to residents of the US state, after the United States Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) dropped its federal case against the exchange.

According to Coinbase’s chief legal officer, Paul Grewal, the lawsuit is an exact “copycat case” of SEC’s 2023 lawsuit against the exchange, which the federal agency agreed to drop in February. Grewal added:

“In case you think I’m jumping to conclusions, the attorney general’s office made it clear to us that they are literally picking up where the Gary Gensler SEC left off — seriously. This is exactly the opposite of what Americans should be focused on right now.”

The lawsuit signals that the crypto industry still faces regulatory hurdles and pushback at the state level, even after securing several legal victories on the federal level. Pushback from state regulators could fragment crypto regulations in the US and complicate cohesive national policy.

Related: Coinbase distances Base from highly criticized memecoin that dumped $15M

Several US states drop lawsuits against Coinbase following SEC moves

The SEC reversed its stance on cryptocurrencies following the resignation of former chairman Gary Gensler in January.

Gensler’s exit triggered a wave of dropped lawsuits, enforcement actions and investigations against crypto firms, including Coinbase, Uniswap, and Kraken.

Several US states followed the SEC’s lead and also dropped their lawsuits against Coinbase in the first quarter of this year.

Vermont, one of the 10 US states that filed litigation against the exchange, dropped its lawsuit on March 13.

The legal order specifically cited the SEC’s regulatory pivot and the establishment of a crypto task force by the agency as reasons for dropping the lawsuit.

South Carolina dismissed its lawsuit against Coinbase two weeks after Vermont rescinded its litigation against the exchange giant.

Kentucky’s Department of Financial Institutions became the third state-level regulator to dismiss its Coinbase lawsuit, ending the litigation on March 26.

Despite the legal victory, Coinbase’s Grewal called on the federal government to end the state-by-state approach of crypto regulation and focus on passing clear market structure policies at the federal level.

Magazine: SEC’s U-turn on crypto leaves key questions unanswered

South Korea kicked off 2025 with political chaos, regulatory heat and a crypto market finally brought to heel — or at least forced to grow up.

The nation closed 2024 in disarray following then-President Yoon Suk Yeol’s botched martial law stunt in December.

In the aftermath, authorities spent the first quarter drawing lines in the sand as financial watchdogs slapped cryptocurrency exchanges with probes and lifted the ban on corporate trading accounts. Meanwhile, crypto adoption hit record highs as trading volume cooled.

Here’s a breakdown of the key developments that shaped South Korea’s crypto sector in Q1 of 2025.

South Korean crypto traders given yet another two-year tax exemption

Jan. 1 — Crypto tax postponed

A planned 20% capital gains tax on crypto did not take effect on Jan. 1 after lawmakers agreed to delay it until 2027. This was the third postponement: first from 2022 to 2023, then again to 2025.

Related: Crypto’s debanking problem persists despite new regulations 

The latest delay, reached through bipartisan consensus in late 2024, came amid mounting economic uncertainty and political turmoil. Lawmakers cited fears of investor flight to offshore exchanges, challenges in tracking wallet-based profits, and shifting national priorities in the wake of Yoon’s failed martial law stunt and subsequent impeachment.

Jan. 14 — Warning against North Korean crypto hackers

The US, Japan and South Korea published a joint statement on North Korean crypto hacks. Crypto firms were warned to guard against malware and fake IT freelancers. Lazarus Group, the state-sponsored cyber threat group, was named as a prime suspect in some of the top hacks in 2024, such as the $230-million hack on India’s WazirX and the $50-million hack against Upbit, South Korea’s largest crypto exchange.

Jan. 15 — Companies wait on the sidelines for crypto greenlight

South Korea’s Virtual Asset Committee, a crypto policy coordination body under the Financial Services Commission (FSC), held its second meeting. The FSC was widely expected to approve corporate access to trading accounts on local exchanges. Despite popular demand, the FSC held off on making an official decision, citing the need for further review.

Instead, the FSC announced investor protections against price manipulation and stricter stablecoin oversight.

Jan. 16 — First enforcement of crypto market manipulation

South Korean authorities indicted a trader in the first pump-and-dump prosecution under the Virtual Asset User Protection Act, the new crypto law effective from July 2024.

Meanwhile, Upbit received a suspension notice for allegedly violating Know Your Customer (KYC) requirements in over 500,000 instances, prompting regulators to consider a ban on new user registrations.

Jan. 23 — Upbit, Bithumb compensate users after service outages during martial law

Upbit and rival exchange Bithumb announced plans to compensate users following service disruptions triggered by the surprise declaration of nationwide martial law on Dec. 3, 2024. The shocking move caused panic across financial and crypto markets, leading to a surge in traffic that overwhelmed local trading platforms.

South Korean crypto world finally opened to corporations

Feb. 13 — Charities and universities get first dibs on corporate crypto access

The FSC unveiled its long-awaited plan to allow corporate entities to open crypto trading accounts in phases by late 2025. The rollout will require businesses to use “real-name” accounts and comply with KYC and Anti-Money Laundering (AML) regulations. Charities and universities are first in line and will be allowed to sell their crypto donations starting in the first half of the year.

South Korea’s real-name financial transaction system, introduced in 1993, was designed to combat tax evasion and money laundering by requiring all bank accounts to be opened under verified legal names using national IDs.

Related: Market maker deals are quietly killing crypto projects

Crypto trading exploded in 2017, driven in part by anonymous accounts from businesses, foreigners and minors. Financial authorities responded by requiring crypto exchanges to partner with domestic banks and offer fiat services only through verified real-name accounts. To date, only five exchanges have met the requirements.

Since there was no regulatory framework for real-name corporate accounts, this policy effectively shut out both overseas users and domestic companies from trading on South Korean exchanges. The new roadmap aims to fix that by creating a formal structure for institutional participation under tighter compliance standards.

Feb. 21 — Alleged serial fraudster busted again

Police rearrested “Jon Bur Kim,” identified by the surname Park, for allegedly profiting 68 billion won (approximately $48 million) in a crypto scam involving the token Artube (ATT). He allegedly employed false advertising, pump-and-dump tactics and wash trading to manipulate the market.

This wasn’t Park’s first brush with the law. He was previously indicted in a 14-billion-won (around $10 million) token fraud case and was out on bail when he launched ATT.

Feb. 25 — Upbit operator Dunamu gets slapped

The nation’s Financial Intelligence Unit (FIU) formally notified Dunamu, operator of Upbit, of regulatory action. The sanctions were tied to KYC compliance failures and dealings with unregistered foreign exchanges. The FIU issued a partial business suspension, restricting Upbit from processing new customers’ deposits and withdrawals for three months.

Feb. 27 — Crypto crime force formalized

South Korean prosecutors formally launched the Virtual Asset Crime Joint Investigation Division, following a year and seven months as a temporary operation. As a non-permanent unit from July 2023, the task force indicted 74 individuals, secured 25 arrests, and recovered over 700 billion won (around $490 million) in illicit gains. The 30-person task force includes prosecutors, regulatory staff and specialists.

Feb. 28 — Upbit operator Dunamu files lawsuit to overturn business sanctions

Dunamu said it filed a lawsuit against the FIU to challenge the sanctions imposed on the exchange.

Bitcoin ETF next on checklist for South Korean crypto space

March 5 — Reconsidering Bitcoin ETF ban

The FSC started reviewing legal pathways to allow Bitcoin (BTC) spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), citing Japan’s evolving regulatory approach as a potential model. This marks a notable shift from South Korea’s previous opposition to crypto-based ETFs.

The Capital Markets Act does not recognize cryptocurrencies as eligible underlying assets for ETFs. However, in 2024, lobbying efforts from major domestic brokerages intensified amid rising client demand, especially after spot Bitcoin ETFs were approved in the US.

While the review remains in its early stages, regulators are no longer dismissing the possibility outright.

March 21 — Crackdown on unregistered exchanges begins

The FIU compiled a list of illegal foreign exchanges and moved to block access via app stores and ISPs. Additionally, the agency warned of criminal penalties for trading platforms operating without a license.

March 26 — 17 exchange apps blocked (including KuCoin and MEXC)

Google Play removed 17 unlicensed crypto exchange apps in South Korea at the request of regulators. The FIU said it is also working with Apple to block unauthorized crypto platforms.

March 27 — Upbit scores three-month break

A South Korean court temporarily lifted the Feb. 25 partial business suspension imposed on crypto exchange Upbit by the FIU. The court’s decision allows Upbit to resume serving new users while the case is under review.

South Korean crypto expected to go from crackdown in Q1 to campaign trail in Q2

As March ended, more than 16 million investors — roughly a third of South Korea’s population — held crypto accounts, surpassing the 14.1 million domestic stock traders. But that surge in adoption came as trading activity cooled. Upbit, the country’s dominant exchange, saw volumes fall by 34%, dropping from $561.9 billion in Q4 2024 to $371 billion in Q1 2025, according to CoinGecko.

By mid-April, the crackdown was still gaining steam. Apple followed Google’s lead in removing offshore exchange apps from its store, while prosecutors filed yet another round of market manipulation charges.

South Korea’s crypto industry is now contending with tighter rules, rising institutional expectations and a government no longer content to watch from the sidelines.

All this unfolds ahead of an early presidential election in June, following Yoon’s impeachment. Crypto played a visible role in Yoon’s successful 2022 presidential election campaign and is expected to remain a key issue with voters. 

One candidate in the upcoming election, former prosecutor Hong Joon-pyo of the People Power Party, recently pledged to overhaul crypto regulations in line with the pro-industry stance of the Trump administration, local media reported. Despite the pledge, Hong’s understanding of the technology came into question as he admitted to not knowing what a central bank digital currency is.

Magazine: Uni students crypto ‘grooming’ scandal, 67K scammed by fake women: Asia Express