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A bitcoin exchange that collapsed 10 years ago after being hacked is set to return billions of dollars’ worth of the token to users — and it has investors worried.

In a few days, bankrupt Tokyo-based bitcoin exchange Mt. Gox will begin paying back thousands of users almost $9 billion worth of tokens. The platform went under in 2014 following a series of heists that cost it in the range of 650,000 to 950,000 bitcoin, or upward of $58 billion, at current prices.

The payout follows a protracted bankruptcy process that’s involved multiple delays and legal challenges.

On Monday, the court-appointed trustee overseeing the exchange’s bankruptcy proceedings said distributions to the firm’s roughly 20,000 creditors would begin in early July. Disbursements will be in a mix of bitcoin and bitcoin cash, an early offshoot of the original cryptocurrency.

While this is good news for victims of the hack who have spent years waiting to be made whole, the price of bitcoin slid to $59,000 last week, in the crypto market’s second-worst weekly decline of the year.

CNBC spoke to half a dozen analysts to get their take on what to expect when roughly 141,000 bitcoin — or roughly 0.7% of the total 19.7 million bitcoins outstanding — are returned to Mt. Gox victims this week.

Pressure on bitcoin could pick up

Mt. Gox — short for “Magic: The Gathering Online Exchange” — was once the largest spot bitcoin exchange globally, claiming to handle around 80% of all global dollar trades for bitcoin.

When it shuttered in February 2014, bitcoin was worth around $600.

Today, the world’s largest cryptocurrency is trading at about $61,000 per coin. That means users opting to be reimbursed in-kind — that is, in the cryptocurrency itself, rather than the cash equivalent — have seen the value of their coins surge over 10,000% in the last decade.

John Glover, chief investment officer of crypto lending firm Ledn, told CNBC the windfall for Mt. Gox users would likely translate to huge sales in bitcoin as investors look to lock in gains.

“Many will clearly cash out and enjoy the fact that having their assets stuck in the Mt. Gox bankruptcy was the best investment they ever made,” said Glover, who was previously a managing director at Barclays. “Some will clearly choose to take the money and run,” added Glover.

James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares told CNBC the overhang of the nearly $9 billion of bitcoin set to be released has “long been a concern for those with bullish views on bitcoin.”

Consequently, the market is highly sensitive to any related news. With the announcement that the Trust will begin selling in July, investors are understandably worried,” said Butterfill.

Read more about tech and crypto from CNBC Pro

It wouldn’t be the first time bitcoin’s moved in reaction to big redemptions of funds locked up in centralized trading platforms.

Last month, crypto exchange Gemini returned more than $2 billion worth of bitcoin to users with funds that had been trapped in its Earn lending program, marking a 230% recovery after bitcoin prices more than tripled since Gemini suspended Earn withdrawals on Nov. 16.

JPMorgan analysts linked this to negative price action, saying in a research note last week that it’s “fair to assume that some of Gemini creditors, which are mostly retail customers, have taken at least partial profits in recent weeks.”

Similarly, JPMorgan analysts expect Mt. Gox customers to be similarly inclined to sell some of their bitcoin to profit from seismic gains for the cryptocurrency.

“Assuming most of the liquidations by Mt. Gox creditors take place in July, [this] creates a trajectory where crypto prices come under further pressure in July, but start rebounding from August onwards,” they wrote.

Separately last month, the German government sold 5,000 — worth approximately $305.8 million as of Thursday’s prices — of a 50,000-bitcoin pile seized in connection with the movie piracy operation Movi2k.

The funds were sent to various crypto exchanges, including Coinbase, Kraken, and Bitstamp, according to blockchain intelligence firm Arkham Intelligence.

Analysts say these crypto liquidations, too, have placed pressure on bitcoin’s price.

NYSE's Martin: Can't argue with success of Bitcoin ETFs and liquidity it's brought to markets

Mt. Gox customers expected to hang on to their bitcoin

Most analysts agree losses in bitcoin are likely to be contained and short-lived.

“I think that sell-off concerns relating to Mt. Gox will likely be short-term,” said Lennix Lai, chief commercial officer of crypto exchange OKX.

“Many of Mt. Gox’s early users as well as creditors are long-term bitcoin enthusiasts who are less likely to sell all of their bitcoin immediately,” he said, adding previous sell-offs by law enforcement, including the Silk Road case, did not result in a sustained catastrophic price drop.

Butterfill suggested there’s enough market liquidity to cushion the blow of any possible mass market sell action.

“Bitcoin has maintained a daily trading volume of $8.74 billion on trusted exchanges this year, suggesting that liquidity is sufficient to absorb these sales over the summer months,” said Butterfill.

According to CCData research analyst, Jacob Joseph, the markets are more than capable of absorbing the selling pressure.

“Moreover, a healthy part of the creditors are likely to take a 10% haircut on their holdings to receive the repayment early, and not all holdings are set to be liquidated on the open market, reducing the overall selling pressure,” he said.

How Wall Street learned to love bitcoin

Recent price moves suggest the temporary impact of the Mt. Gox repayments may already be priced in, Joseph added.

Galaxy Digital’s head of research, Alex Thorn, believes fewer coins will be distributed than people think, meaning there will be less sell pressure than the market expects.

However, he also wrote in May that, even if only 10% of the bitcoin distributed is sold, “it will have a market impact.” 

“Most of the individual creditors will have their coins deposited directly into a trading account at an exchange, making it extremely easy to sell,” Thorn said.

Vijay Ayyar, head of consumer growth for Asia-Pacific at crypto exchange Gemini, said that the overall impact of the Mt. Gox disbursement is likely to be “dissipated,” given the recipients of the funds are varied.

On the one hand, there are individual holders who will get their bitcoin straight away. Then there’s the “significant amount” of bitcoin that will be disbursed out to claims funds, Ayyar said.

“Those funds would then need to distribute these out to their LPs [limited partners], hence the whole process could take a while adding a time element to the impact on price,” he told CNBC.

Macro headwinds behind bitcoin’s fall

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Bitcoin’s U.S. dollar price performance, year-to-date.

But investors have remained anxious amid outflows from bitcoin ETFs and sizable market liquidations. The broader macro environment, too, has investors worried.

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve suggested it plans to cut rates just once this year, down from the multiple cuts it had indicated previously.

Cryptocurrencies, which are inherently volatile, are particularly sensitive to changes in the interest rate environment.

CoinShares’ Butterfill said the Fed’s new rate forecast was among “the likely culprits for the recent price decline” in bitcoin.

This, along with other issues, is “likely to weigh on prices in the lower volume summer months,” Butterfill said. However, “the fundamental investment case remains very much intact,” he added.

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Philippines overtakes China and Indonesia to be most dependent on coal-generated power

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Philippines overtakes China and Indonesia to be most dependent on coal-generated power

Coal-fired power plants in Mariveles, Bataan, the Philippines, on June 6, 2023.

Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

The Philippines’ dependency on coal-fired power surged 62% last year, overtaking China, Indonesia and Poland, according to London-based energy think-tank Ember.

The Philippines was also the most coal-dependent country in Southeast Asia in 2023, as adoption of renewable electricity generation remained low. The share of electricity generated from coal in the country climbed to 61.9% last year compared to 59.1% in 2022.

Overall, coal generation in the country also rose by 9.7%, higher than a 4.6% increase in electricity demand, the report said.

“Coal has played important roles in the Philippines’ energy security. In the 1990s, many new coal power plants were being built to meet the growing electricity demand,” Dinita Setyawati, senior electricity policy analyst for Southeast Asia at Ember Climate told CNBC.

Indonesia and the Philippines are the two most coal dependent countries in Southeast Asia and their reliance on coal is growing fast.

“To date, dependency on these coal power plants continues.”

Indonesia — the world’s fifth largest coal producer — followed closely behind, with the share of power generated from coal hitting fresh highs of 61.8% in 2023.

“Indonesia and the Philippines are the two most coal dependent countries in Southeast Asia and their reliance on coal is growing fast,” the report said, adding that the the Southeast Asian region saw a 2% uptick in coal reliance from 31% in 2022 to 33% last year.

China has made strides in reducing its reliance on the dirtiest fossil fuel for electricity generation, with demand standing at 60.7% in 2023 — lower than India at 75.2% and Poland at 61%, according to Ember.

The world’s biggest coal producer, China has made notable progress in renewable energy development. As a result, there’s been a slowdown in the rate of emission increase — from an average of 9% annually between 2001 and 2015, to 4.4% annually between 2016 and 2023, the energy think tank said in May, adding that clean electricity contributed to 35% of China’s total electricity generation.

Indonesia, Philippines lag in renewables

Indonesia and the Philippines are still years away from replacing coal as the main source of power capacity, and increasing renewable energy in its electricity mix is paramount.

“Indonesia and the Philippines have seen limited growth in their renewable electricity generation, as their wind and solar potential remains almost entirely untapped,” the report said.

Ember pointed out that wind and solar generation in the Philippines only increased from below 1 terawatt hours in 2015 to 3.7 TWH last year. This is significantly slower than growth in the rest of the region, where wind and solar generation climbed 46 TWh from 2015 to 2023 — mostly driven by Vietnam, the report said.

“Scaling up on renewable energy sources should be done in parallel with stopping the pace of coal-fired power generation in Indonesia and the Philippines,” Ember’s Setyawati told CNBC.

Indonesia’s government has to scale up its renewable energy ambitions, she said, adding that new policies to boost solar and wind power development should be introduced.

“For example, incentives for rooftop solar users, relaxation of local content requirements for wind and solar power producers and public research funding in solar and wind technologies.”

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Hydrogen trucks retreat from Australia as battery electric sales surge

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Hydrogen trucks retreat from Australia as battery electric sales surge

Hydrogen fuel cell specialists Hyzon have announced plans to quit Australia even as sales of battery electric commercial trucks climb.

For a while, it seemed like Hyzon had found something of a home in Australia. Recently, the American startup had announced pilot programs that would see its hydrogen fuel cells put to work in transit buses in Brisbane, tow trucks (above) in Victoria, and five 154-ton severe duty trucks scheduled to service a zinc refinery operation in north Queensland.

Alas, it seems like it’s not enough – Hyzon said Monday that, after a review of its business operations, it has “started realigning its strategic priorities along several lines to focus on the company’s core North American markets and the refuse industry.”

The company said it was hoping to raise new capital to get its 200 kW HFCs into series production, and has retained investment bank PJT Partners to evaluate a number of options, up to and including an outright sale of the company.

Meanwhile, BEVs are doing great

Commercial delivery EVs; courtesy ANC.

Meanwhile, Australia’s commercial BEV sales are booming. The entire country saw just under 100 battery electric trucks sold in 2022, but that number jumped to 256 in 2023 and continues to climb in 2024.

As if to underscore that fact, ANC (a leading, UPS-style last mile delivery partner for many of the Australia’s large retailers) has announced plans to spend more than $45 million.

ANC is calling the initiative “Project Spark,” and it’s being backed by a $12.8 million grant from the Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA) specifically designed to address the barrier presented by the initially higher up-front costs of EVs. ARENA is also working to provide EV buyers with discounted leasing options, and generally “improved” EV charging infrastructure.

Project Spark is expected to add 112 new BEVs to Australia’s roads within the next year.

“It promises to kick-start a step change in electrifying last mile delivery in Australia by lowering the total costs to own and run electric trucks,” said Darren Miller, CEO of ARENA. “The project demonstrates use cases for battery electric trucks in last mile operations, tackling constraints that have so far made it hard for the industry to transition away from internal combustion engine vehicles.”

Electrek’s Take

MAN Trucks says hydrogen will never work, bets the farm on batteries
Image via MAN Trucks.

No one said it better than MAN CEO, Alexander Vlaskamp, who said that it was “impossible” for hydrogen trucks to effectively compete with BEVs. That interview is definitely worth a re-read, but to see companies like Hyzon suffering in even the most hydrogen-friendly markets out there is to believe Vlaskamp, even if you already believed him, just that little bit more.

SOURCES | IMAGES: Hyzon, ANC; via the Driven.

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Environment

The US just greenlit the offshore wind farm Trump vowed to kill

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The US just greenlit the offshore wind farm Trump vowed to kill

Shell-EDF’s Atlantic Shores South is the US’s ninth commercial-scale, offshore wind farm approved under the Biden administration – Trump wants to cancel it. 

Atlantic Shores South consists of two wind farms — Atlantic Shores Offshore Wind Project 1 and 2 — expected to generate up to 2,800 megawatts (MW) of electricity, enough to power nearly 1 million homes with clean energy.

It’s around 8.7 miles offshore New Jersey at its closest point. Up to 200 wind turbines and 10 offshore substations with subsea transmission cables were proposed, potentially making landfall in Atlantic City and Sea Girt, New Jersey. BOEM has approved the construction of up to 195 wind turbines. The project has a labor agreement with six New Jersey unions.

President Biden’s national climate adviser, Ali Zaidi, said, “The Biden-Harris administration will continue to use every available tool to grow the American offshore wind industry as we strengthen the nation’s power grid and tackle the climate crisis.” 

Governor Phil Murphy (D-NJ) has set a goal for New Jersey to install 11 GW of offshore wind by 2040. It has 3.7 GW of offshore wind in the pipeline.

In May, Donald Trump told a MAGA rally in Wildwood, New Jersey, that he would stop the Atlantic Shores South offshore wind farm “on day one” with an executive order if he won the presidential election. ”You don’t have to worry about Governor Murphy’s 157 [sic] wind turbines,” he said.

Governor Maura Healey (D-MA) recently told the Financial Times that the upcoming election created “heightened urgency” to speed up the buildout of the sector – Massachusetts is a US offshore wind trailblazer – and that a Trump win would be “devastating” for the industry. However, New Jersey’s Murphy said that “government policy is a different reality than what people might say on the campaign trail.”

During the Biden administration, the US Interior Department has given the go-ahead to more than 13 GW of offshore wind — enough to power nearly 5 million homes.

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