A bitcoin exchange that collapsed 10 years ago after being hacked is set to return billions of dollars’ worth of the token to users — and it has investors worried.
In a few days, bankrupt Tokyo-based bitcoin exchange Mt. Gox will begin paying back thousands of users almost $9 billion worth of tokens. The platform went under in 2014 following a series of heists that cost it in the range of 650,000 to 950,000 bitcoin, or upward of $58 billion, at current prices.
The payout follows a protracted bankruptcy process that’s involved multiple delays and legal challenges.
On Monday, the court-appointed trustee overseeing the exchange’s bankruptcy proceedings said distributions to the firm’s roughly 20,000 creditors would begin in early July. Disbursements will be in a mix of bitcoin and bitcoin cash, an early offshoot of the original cryptocurrency.
CNBC spoke to half a dozen analysts to get their take on what to expect when roughly 141,000 bitcoin — or roughly 0.7% of the total 19.7 million bitcoins outstanding — are returned to Mt. Gox victims this week.
Pressure on bitcoin could pick up
Mt. Gox — short for “Magic: The Gathering Online Exchange” — was once the largest spot bitcoin exchange globally, claiming to handle around 80% of all global dollar trades for bitcoin.
When it shuttered in February 2014, bitcoin was worth around $600.
Today, the world’s largest cryptocurrency is trading at about $61,000 per coin. That means users opting to be reimbursed in-kind — that is, in the cryptocurrency itself, rather than the cash equivalent — have seen the value of their coins surge over 10,000% in the last decade.
John Glover, chief investment officer of crypto lending firm Ledn, told CNBC the windfall for Mt. Gox users would likely translate to huge sales in bitcoin as investors look to lock in gains.
“Many will clearly cash out and enjoy the fact that having their assets stuck in the Mt. Gox bankruptcy was the best investment they ever made,” said Glover, who was previously a managing director at Barclays. “Some will clearly choose to take the money and run,” added Glover.
James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares told CNBC the overhang of the nearly $9 billion of bitcoin set to be released has “long been a concern for those with bullish views on bitcoin.”
“Consequently, the market is highly sensitive to any related news. With the announcement that the Trust will begin selling in July, investors are understandably worried,” said Butterfill.
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It wouldn’t be the first time bitcoin’s moved in reaction to big redemptions of funds locked up in centralized trading platforms.
Last month, crypto exchange Gemini returned more than $2 billion worth of bitcoin to users with funds that had been trapped in its Earn lending program, marking a 230% recovery after bitcoin prices more than tripled since Gemini suspended Earn withdrawals on Nov. 16.
JPMorgan analysts linked this to negative price action, saying in a research note last week that it’s “fair to assume that some of Gemini creditors, which are mostly retail customers, have taken at least partial profits in recent weeks.”
Similarly, JPMorgan analysts expect Mt. Gox customers to be similarly inclined to sell some of their bitcoin to profit from seismic gains for the cryptocurrency.
“Assuming most of the liquidations by Mt. Gox creditors take place in July, [this] creates a trajectory where crypto prices come under further pressure in July, but start rebounding from August onwards,” they wrote.
Separately last month, the German government sold 5,000 — worth approximately $305.8 million as of Thursday’s prices — of a 50,000-bitcoin pile seized in connection with the movie piracy operation Movi2k.
Analysts say these crypto liquidations, too, have placed pressure on bitcoin’s price.
Mt. Gox customers expected to hang on to their bitcoin
Most analysts agree losses in bitcoin are likely to be contained and short-lived.
“I think that sell-off concerns relating to Mt. Gox will likely be short-term,” said Lennix Lai, chief commercial officer of crypto exchange OKX.
“Many of Mt. Gox’s early users as well as creditors are long-term bitcoin enthusiasts who are less likely to sell all of their bitcoin immediately,” he said, adding previous sell-offs by law enforcement, including the Silk Road case, did not result in a sustained catastrophic price drop.
Butterfill suggested there’s enough market liquidity to cushion the blow of any possible mass market sell action.
“Bitcoin has maintained a daily trading volume of $8.74 billion on trusted exchanges this year, suggesting that liquidity is sufficient to absorb these sales over the summer months,” said Butterfill.
According to CCData research analyst, Jacob Joseph, the markets are more than capable of absorbing the selling pressure.
“Moreover, a healthy part of the creditors are likely to take a 10% haircut on their holdings to receive the repayment early, and not all holdings are set to be liquidated on the open market, reducing the overall selling pressure,” he said.
Recent price moves suggest the temporary impact of the Mt. Gox repayments may already be priced in, Joseph added.
Galaxy Digital’s head of research, Alex Thorn, believes fewer coins will be distributed than people think, meaning there will be less sell pressure than the market expects.
However, he also wrote in May that, even if only 10% of the bitcoin distributed is sold, “it will have a market impact.”
“Most of the individual creditors will have their coins deposited directly into a trading account at an exchange, making it extremely easy to sell,” Thorn said.
Vijay Ayyar, head of consumer growth for Asia-Pacific at crypto exchange Gemini, said that the overall impact of the Mt. Gox disbursement is likely to be “dissipated,” given the recipients of the funds are varied.
On the one hand, there are individual holders who will get their bitcoin straight away. Then there’s the “significant amount” of bitcoin that will be disbursed out to claims funds, Ayyar said.
“Those funds would then need to distribute these out to their LPs [limited partners], hence the whole process could take a while adding a time element to the impact on price,” he told CNBC.
Macro headwinds behind bitcoin’s fall
It’s worth noting there are plenty of other reasons behind bitcoin’s recent declines.
The cryptocurrency had a stunning rally earlier this year, climbing past $70,000 on the heels of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s approval of the first spot bitcoin ETF.
Bitcoin’s U.S. dollar price performance, year-to-date.
But investors have remained anxious amid outflows from bitcoin ETFs and sizable market liquidations. The broader macro environment, too, has investors worried.
Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve suggested it plans to cut rates just once this year, down from the multiple cuts it had indicated previously.
Cryptocurrencies, which are inherently volatile, are particularly sensitive to changes in the interest rate environment.
CoinShares’ Butterfill said the Fed’s new rate forecast was among “the likely culprits for the recent price decline” in bitcoin.
This, along with other issues, is “likely to weigh on prices in the lower volume summer months,” Butterfill said. However, “the fundamental investment case remains very much intact,” he added.
After canceling the upcoming Airflow electric crossover and killing its popular 300 sedan, Chrysler only has one nameplate left in its lineup – but it doesn’t have to be this way. Stellantis already builds a full-size electric sedan that could prove to be a badge-engineered winner.
And, yes – it really should have been the new Chrysler 300. Meet the DS No. 8.
Stellantis’ US brands have had a tough go of the last few years, with Jeep trying and failing to bait luxury buyers willing to part with six-figure sums for a new Grand Wagoneer orgenerate excitement for the new electric Wagoneer S. The Dodge brand is doing to better with the Charger, a confusing electric muscle car that has, so far, failed to appeal to enthusiasts of any kind. Meanwhile, the lone Chrysler left standing, the Pacifica minivan, made its debut back in 2016. Nearly ten long model years ago.
Spec-wise, the DS meets the bill, as well. With a 92.7 kWh battery and the standard 230 hp electric motors on board, the electric crossover is good for 750 km (466 miles) of range on the WLTP cycle. With the same battery and a 350 hp dual-motor setup that sacrifices about 40 miles of range for a more sure-footed AWD layout and a 5.4 second 0-60 time that compares nicely to the outgoing Chrysler 300 V8.
The DS offers reasonably rapid 150 kW charging, too, enabling a 10-80% charge (over 300 miles of additional driving range) in less than thirty minutes.
Why it would work
DS Automobiles No. 8; via Stellantis.
Think of all the reasons the Wagoneer S and Charger Daytona EVs have failed to reach an audience. From the confusing Wagoneer “sub-branding” to the fact that no one was really asking for either an eco-conscious muscle car or a loud EV. On the flip side of that, the 300 is something different.
With the DS No. 8, Chrysler could do it again. It could revive its classic American nameplate on a European-designed platform that wasn’t designed to be a Chrysler, doesn’t look like a Chrysler, and shouldn’t work as a Chrysler, but somehow does. The fact that it could also be the brand’s first successful electric offering in the US would just be a bonus.
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Powered by tech giant Huawei 5G-Advanced network, a fleet of over 100 Huaneng Ruichi all-electric autonomous haul trucks and heavy equipment assets have been deployed at the Yimin open-pit mine in Inner Mongolia.
With more than 100 units on site, China’s state-backed Huaneng Group officially deployed the world’s largest fleet of unmanned electric mining trucks at the Yimin coal plant in Inner Mongolia this past week. The autonomous trucks use the same Huawei Commercial Vehicle Autonomous Driving Cloud Service (CVADCS) powered by the ame 5G-Advanced (5G-A) network that powers its self-driving car efforts. Huawei says it’s the key to enabling the Yimin mine’s large-scale vehicle-cloud-network synergy.
Huawei is calling the achievement a “world’s first,” saying the new system has improved operator safety at Yimin while setting new benchmarks for AI and autonomous mining.
For their part, Huaneng Ruichi claims its cabin-less electric offer an industry-leading 90 metric ton rating (that’s about 100 imperial tons) and the ability operate continually in extreme cold temperatures as low as -40° (it’s the same, C or F), while delivering 20% more operational efficiency than a human-driven truck.
The Huawei-issued press release is a bit light on truck specs, but similar 90 tonne electric units claim 350 or 422 kWh LFP battery packs and up to 565 hp from their electric drive motors and some 2,300 Nm (1,700 lb-ft) of tq from 0 rpm.
Huawei executives said the Ruichi trucks reflect the company’s vision for smarter mining operations, with the potential to introduce similar technologies in markets like Africa and Latin America. The 100 asset electric fleet marks the first phase of a plan to deploy 300 autonomous trucks at the Yimin mine by 2028.
Electrek’s Take
Electric haul trucks; via Huawei.
From drilling and rigging to heavy haul solutions, companies like Huaneng Group are proving that electric equipment is more than up to the task of moving dirt and pulling stuff out of the ground. At the same time, rising demand for nickel, lithium, and phosphates combined with the natural benefits of electrification are driving the adoption of electric mining machines while a persistent operator shortage is boosting demand for autonomous tech in those machines.
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Tesla has started accepting Cybertruck trade-ins, something that wasn’t the case more than a year after deliveries of the electric pickup truck started.
We are starting to see why Tesla didn’t accept its own vehicle as a trade-in: the depreciation is insane.
The Cybertruck has been a commercial flop.
When Tesla started production and deliveries in late 2023, the vehicle was significantly more expensive and had less performance than initially announced.
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At one point, Tesla boasted having over 1 million reservations for the electric pickup truck, but only about 40,000 people ended up converting their reservations into orders.
Tesla didn’t share an explanation at the time, but we assumed that the automaker knew the Cybertruck was depreciating at an incredible rate and didn’t want to be stuck with more trucks than it was already dealing with.
Now, Tesla has started taking Cybertruck trade-ins, at least for the Foundation Series, and it is now providing estimates to Cybertruck owners (via Cybertruck Owners Club):
Tesla sold a brand-new 2024 Cybertruck AWD Foundation Series for $100,000. Now, with only 6,000 miles on the odometer, Tesla is offering $65,400 for it – 34.6% depreciation in just a year.
Pickup trucks generally lose about 20% of their value after a year and 34% after about 3-4 years.
It’s also wroth nothing that Tesla’s online “trade-in estimates” are often higher than the final offer as noted in the footnote o fhte screenshot above.
Electrek’s Take
This is already extremely high depreciation, but Tesla is actually trying to save face with estimates like this one.
As Tesla wouldn’t even accept Cybertruck trade-ins, used car dealers also slowed down their purchases as they also didn’t want to be caught with the trucks sitting on their lots for too long.
On Car Guru, the Cybertruck’s depreciation is actually closer to 45% after a year and that’s more representative of the offers owners should expect from dealers.
That’s entirely Tesla’s fault. The company created no scarcity with the Foundation Series. They built as many as people wanted. In fact, they built too many and ended having to “buff out” the Foundation Series badges on some units to sell them as regular Cybertrucks and as of last month, Tesla still had some Cybertruck Foundations Series in inventory – meaning they have been sitting around for up to 6 months.
Now, Tesla is stuck with thousands of Cybertrucks, early owners are already getting rid of their vehicles at an impressive rate, and the automaker had to slow production to a crawl.
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