A bitcoin exchange that collapsed 10 years ago after being hacked is set to return billions of dollars’ worth of the token to users — and it has investors worried.
In a few days, bankrupt Tokyo-based bitcoin exchange Mt. Gox will begin paying back thousands of users almost $9 billion worth of tokens. The platform went under in 2014 following a series of heists that cost it in the range of 650,000 to 950,000 bitcoin, or upward of $58 billion, at current prices.
The payout follows a protracted bankruptcy process that’s involved multiple delays and legal challenges.
On Monday, the court-appointed trustee overseeing the exchange’s bankruptcy proceedings said distributions to the firm’s roughly 20,000 creditors would begin in early July. Disbursements will be in a mix of bitcoin and bitcoin cash, an early offshoot of the original cryptocurrency.
CNBC spoke to half a dozen analysts to get their take on what to expect when roughly 141,000 bitcoin — or roughly 0.7% of the total 19.7 million bitcoins outstanding — are returned to Mt. Gox victims this week.
Pressure on bitcoin could pick up
Mt. Gox — short for “Magic: The Gathering Online Exchange” — was once the largest spot bitcoin exchange globally, claiming to handle around 80% of all global dollar trades for bitcoin.
When it shuttered in February 2014, bitcoin was worth around $600.
Today, the world’s largest cryptocurrency is trading at about $61,000 per coin. That means users opting to be reimbursed in-kind — that is, in the cryptocurrency itself, rather than the cash equivalent — have seen the value of their coins surge over 10,000% in the last decade.
John Glover, chief investment officer of crypto lending firm Ledn, told CNBC the windfall for Mt. Gox users would likely translate to huge sales in bitcoin as investors look to lock in gains.
“Many will clearly cash out and enjoy the fact that having their assets stuck in the Mt. Gox bankruptcy was the best investment they ever made,” said Glover, who was previously a managing director at Barclays. “Some will clearly choose to take the money and run,” added Glover.
James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares told CNBC the overhang of the nearly $9 billion of bitcoin set to be released has “long been a concern for those with bullish views on bitcoin.”
“Consequently, the market is highly sensitive to any related news. With the announcement that the Trust will begin selling in July, investors are understandably worried,” said Butterfill.
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It wouldn’t be the first time bitcoin’s moved in reaction to big redemptions of funds locked up in centralized trading platforms.
Last month, crypto exchange Gemini returned more than $2 billion worth of bitcoin to users with funds that had been trapped in its Earn lending program, marking a 230% recovery after bitcoin prices more than tripled since Gemini suspended Earn withdrawals on Nov. 16.
JPMorgan analysts linked this to negative price action, saying in a research note last week that it’s “fair to assume that some of Gemini creditors, which are mostly retail customers, have taken at least partial profits in recent weeks.”
Similarly, JPMorgan analysts expect Mt. Gox customers to be similarly inclined to sell some of their bitcoin to profit from seismic gains for the cryptocurrency.
“Assuming most of the liquidations by Mt. Gox creditors take place in July, [this] creates a trajectory where crypto prices come under further pressure in July, but start rebounding from August onwards,” they wrote.
Separately last month, the German government sold 5,000 — worth approximately $305.8 million as of Thursday’s prices — of a 50,000-bitcoin pile seized in connection with the movie piracy operation Movi2k.
Analysts say these crypto liquidations, too, have placed pressure on bitcoin’s price.
Mt. Gox customers expected to hang on to their bitcoin
Most analysts agree losses in bitcoin are likely to be contained and short-lived.
“I think that sell-off concerns relating to Mt. Gox will likely be short-term,” said Lennix Lai, chief commercial officer of crypto exchange OKX.
“Many of Mt. Gox’s early users as well as creditors are long-term bitcoin enthusiasts who are less likely to sell all of their bitcoin immediately,” he said, adding previous sell-offs by law enforcement, including the Silk Road case, did not result in a sustained catastrophic price drop.
Butterfill suggested there’s enough market liquidity to cushion the blow of any possible mass market sell action.
“Bitcoin has maintained a daily trading volume of $8.74 billion on trusted exchanges this year, suggesting that liquidity is sufficient to absorb these sales over the summer months,” said Butterfill.
According to CCData research analyst, Jacob Joseph, the markets are more than capable of absorbing the selling pressure.
“Moreover, a healthy part of the creditors are likely to take a 10% haircut on their holdings to receive the repayment early, and not all holdings are set to be liquidated on the open market, reducing the overall selling pressure,” he said.
Recent price moves suggest the temporary impact of the Mt. Gox repayments may already be priced in, Joseph added.
Galaxy Digital’s head of research, Alex Thorn, believes fewer coins will be distributed than people think, meaning there will be less sell pressure than the market expects.
However, he also wrote in May that, even if only 10% of the bitcoin distributed is sold, “it will have a market impact.”
“Most of the individual creditors will have their coins deposited directly into a trading account at an exchange, making it extremely easy to sell,” Thorn said.
Vijay Ayyar, head of consumer growth for Asia-Pacific at crypto exchange Gemini, said that the overall impact of the Mt. Gox disbursement is likely to be “dissipated,” given the recipients of the funds are varied.
On the one hand, there are individual holders who will get their bitcoin straight away. Then there’s the “significant amount” of bitcoin that will be disbursed out to claims funds, Ayyar said.
“Those funds would then need to distribute these out to their LPs [limited partners], hence the whole process could take a while adding a time element to the impact on price,” he told CNBC.
Macro headwinds behind bitcoin’s fall
It’s worth noting there are plenty of other reasons behind bitcoin’s recent declines.
The cryptocurrency had a stunning rally earlier this year, climbing past $70,000 on the heels of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s approval of the first spot bitcoin ETF.
Bitcoin’s U.S. dollar price performance, year-to-date.
But investors have remained anxious amid outflows from bitcoin ETFs and sizable market liquidations. The broader macro environment, too, has investors worried.
Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve suggested it plans to cut rates just once this year, down from the multiple cuts it had indicated previously.
Cryptocurrencies, which are inherently volatile, are particularly sensitive to changes in the interest rate environment.
CoinShares’ Butterfill said the Fed’s new rate forecast was among “the likely culprits for the recent price decline” in bitcoin.
This, along with other issues, is “likely to weigh on prices in the lower volume summer months,” Butterfill said. However, “the fundamental investment case remains very much intact,” he added.
Yolo County, California depends on its climate for continued agricultural success. As such, the county’s leaders are taking environmental stewardship seriously by aiming for full carbon neutrality by 2030. To help achieve that goal, they’re putting zero-emission machinery like the Volvo DD25 Electric compactor to work.
We got our first chance to sample the DD25 Electric at Volvo Days last summer, where the all-electric tandem roller’s vibrating drums impressed dealers and end users alike. It was no surprise, then, that when Yolo Country fleet superintendent, Ben Lee, when shopping for a compactor the DD25 Electric was high on his list.
“The DD25 Electric will help us achieve our goals in several ways,” explains Lee. “By reducing emissions, lowering noise levels, being more energy-efficient, improving working conditions and promoting environmentally friendly practices … we’ll use it to compact soil, gravel and other base materials for road and foundation projects, as well as rolling out and leveling asphalt during road construction and resurfacing.”
To help Lee handle those various projects, the Volvo’s drum frequency can be adjusted from 3500 vpm (55 Hz) to 4000 vpm (67 Hz) to cater to different applications and materials.
Getting power to the compactor, too, is something Yolo is considering. “There are some remote areas in the county, so we’re looking into a mobile, self-contained charging unit as well,” explains Lee, apparently referencing the Volvo PU130 mobile battery. “So we wouldn’t have to bring the machine back to the yard each night during a long-term project.”
Yolo County views electric equipment as an essential step in reducing emissions and energy consumption, especially as communities work towards stricter regulations and sustainability goals.
Electrek’s Take
This press release came to us ahead of the devastating wild fires in Southern California that are dominating headlines right now – so much so that I effectively sat on the news for a few days, debating whether or not we should even be talking about a California news story that isn’t about the fires right now.
But I realized: this story is about the fires. Climate change driven by combustion and carbon emissions is driving climate change and that’s making fires like these possible … and I should have run it sooner.
Kubota came to this year’s CES with a sprawling display filled with electric equipment, hydrogen gensets, and an onslaught of commercial robots ready to mow, farm, dig, and build. If you weren’t impressed by Kubota’s display this year, you weren’t paying attention.
Kubota gave us a sneak peek of its KATR farm robot – itself a smaller, updated version of last year’s New Agri Concept – before the doors officially opened last week. Kubota’s robotic farm buddies promise to be able to quietly and autonomously haul stuff from one end of the farm to another, or pull carts and specialized implements along predetermined paths.
KATR uses self-leveling technology and active suspension to ensure its cargo deck stays level when working on the sort of uneven terrain found on farms or construction sites.
That doesn’t mean the New Agri Concept is dead, though. Agri Concept 2.0 debuted as an electric tractor concept offering AI-powered automation and a fully electric powertrain. The new version features a Lite Brite-style “grille” that it uses to communicate its current mode, direction, and other important information with the people it shares a job site with.
On the more practical side, Kubota showed off its KX38-4e Electric compact excavator. First shown in overseas markets in 2022, the KX38-4e Electric features a 49.2 kWh lithium-ion battery that’s good for up to five hours of continuous operation. More than enough to complete a typical day of work on a construction site when you factor out idle time.
An onboard DC fast charger means it can be quickly recharged between shifts, too. But when there’s no grid power on the site, charging can be a challenge. That’s why Kubota has hydrogen genset for zero-emission on-site power generation.
Kubota electric excavator.Kubota Denyo hydrogen genset.
Looked at individually, each of the new electric Kubota products on display might be impressive. The real magic, though, is in the way the Kubota machines work together as a holistic job site or farm solution.
“At Kubota, we believe that truly listening to our customers drives innovation in every aspect of what we call the ‘Work Loop’,” explains Brett McMickell, Chief Technology Officer of Kubota North America. “The Work Loop — an essential cycle of assessing, analyzing, and acting — has always been fundamental to effective task management. With the integration of advanced sensors, AI-driven analysis, networking protocols, automation, and robotics, we are enhancing this cycle to be more seamless and efficient than ever before.”
That was obvious in some of the more thoughtful implements and attachments on display, including a Smart Plant Imager that uses advanced robotics and “hyper-spectral imaging” cameras to capture real-time data and insights on a plant-by-plant level – as well as a Smart Autonomous Sprayer and Robotic Pruner that that classifies buds and canes based on position and fruiting potential, it optimizes production precision and accuracy.
The more you look, the more impressive Kubota’s farming solution gets. “We will continue to learn from many of our customers across segments to iterate the next product and technology solution that will help them manage tomorrow’s challenges and grow their businesses,” McMickell added. “This is how Kubota works to make a better quality of life for individuals and society.”
The e-bike industry has stalled a little bit in terms of features, and with harsh new legislation coming in from places like California, maybe it is time to start looking at e-bikes that are light, efficient, and smooth rather than how much wattage they can output. The Tenways CGO 600Pro, which comes in at just 37 pounds, is a model e-bike you should keep an eye on…
The CGO 600Pro comes in 2 flavors: a carbon belt single-speed version that Micah reviewed and this one, which is a chain and 8-speed Shimano gears. The belt drive is going to win out on simplicity and weight but if you are expecting to get close to the ‘class 1’ top speed of 20mph or need to go up some significant hills, you’ll want to opt for the chain/gear version here.
One thing I love about this bike is the tradeoff decisions. These keep the price low and weight down while still providing a great ride. The spec sheet overall is solid but not top-shelf.
Tenways CGO600 Pro tech specs (chain/geared version)
Motor: 350 Watt rear hub motor with 45 Nm of torque
Top speed: 20 mph (32 km/h)
Range: Claimed up to 53 miles (85 km)
Battery: 36V 10Ah (360 Wh)
Weight: 37 lb (16.8 kg, over 40lbs with fenders, kickstand, etc)
Frame: 6061 aluminum alloy
Tires: CST Puncture-proof 700*45C-size Tires
Brakes: Tektro dual-piston hydraulic disc brakes
Gearing: Shimano 8-Speed Claris
Extras: Compact LED display, 4 pedal assist levels, slim fender set, kickstand, internally routed cables, LED lighting, removable battery, Tenways app integration, torque sensor, four color options
No Throttle?
Note that as a class 1 e-bike, neither belt/chain version has a throttle. While this may be controversial to some, it not only simplifies the bike, it makes it a Class 1, which will be legal in the most places. I tend to think of no throttle as a “foot throttle” and for the commuter application, this will serve well. Would I appreciate a throttle on a hill start? Perhaps.
The idea of this bike is to just enhance your pedal bike experience. You are going to get some exercise on this bike versus a bike that is a glorified low-power moped that runs on throttle with vestigial pedals.
More importantly, the torque sensor here is phenomenal; I mean, it is probably the best torque sensor I’ve ridden connected to a rear hub motor. The acceleration is smooth and strangely powerful for the 350W/45nm motor. Significant hills are a breeze, and this is one of the few bikes where I forget that I’m using an e-bike sometimes (until I look down and I’m going 20mph with little effort). Hills are also where the gearing really helps.
The tires are also the perfect size for a commuter with puncture resistance and treads that will do OK in rain and snow.
The bike itself is also very stealthy in terms of showing that it is a powered e-bike. The small 36V, 10Ah battery is integrated magnificently into the narrow downtube of the bike. All of the cables are integrated into the bike frame for a super-clean look. The rear hub motor is small but packs a punch. Many people won’t even recognize this as an e-bike. While I’m proud to be riding an e-bike around, perhaps some people would like to keep that on the down-low.
Brakes are great with hydraulic Tektros clasping against 160mm rotors in front and back. It is such a light bike that stopping can be jarring.
Assembly was super easy and took about 30 minutes with the included tool set. The battery came about 40% charged but was ready to go within a few hours with the 3A charger. Shoutout to Tenways for using a water-resistant standardized barrel charger adapter and not some proprietary adapter so that I can use one from another bike when I inevitably lose it.
Electrek’s take
The Tenways CGO600 is a fantastic light, clean, stiff and smooth e-bike that I have 0 reservations about recommending. While the battery and motor are small, they power the light bike admirably and for around 50 miles (your mileage will vary).
Currently there is a $200 off promotion code “HAPPY2025TW” at checkout bringing the CGO600Pro down to $1399 which is an amazing price for this bike:
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