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A bitcoin exchange that collapsed 10 years ago after being hacked is set to return billions of dollars’ worth of the token to users — and it has investors worried.

In a few days, bankrupt Tokyo-based bitcoin exchange Mt. Gox will begin paying back thousands of users almost $9 billion worth of tokens. The platform went under in 2014 following a series of heists that cost it in the range of 650,000 to 950,000 bitcoin, or upward of $58 billion, at current prices.

The payout follows a protracted bankruptcy process that’s involved multiple delays and legal challenges.

On Monday, the court-appointed trustee overseeing the exchange’s bankruptcy proceedings said distributions to the firm’s roughly 20,000 creditors would begin in early July. Disbursements will be in a mix of bitcoin and bitcoin cash, an early offshoot of the original cryptocurrency.

While this is good news for victims of the hack who have spent years waiting to be made whole, the price of bitcoin slid to $59,000 last week, in the crypto market’s second-worst weekly decline of the year.

CNBC spoke to half a dozen analysts to get their take on what to expect when roughly 141,000 bitcoin — or roughly 0.7% of the total 19.7 million bitcoins outstanding — are returned to Mt. Gox victims this week.

Pressure on bitcoin could pick up

Mt. Gox — short for “Magic: The Gathering Online Exchange” — was once the largest spot bitcoin exchange globally, claiming to handle around 80% of all global dollar trades for bitcoin.

When it shuttered in February 2014, bitcoin was worth around $600.

Today, the world’s largest cryptocurrency is trading at about $61,000 per coin. That means users opting to be reimbursed in-kind — that is, in the cryptocurrency itself, rather than the cash equivalent — have seen the value of their coins surge over 10,000% in the last decade.

John Glover, chief investment officer of crypto lending firm Ledn, told CNBC the windfall for Mt. Gox users would likely translate to huge sales in bitcoin as investors look to lock in gains.

“Many will clearly cash out and enjoy the fact that having their assets stuck in the Mt. Gox bankruptcy was the best investment they ever made,” said Glover, who was previously a managing director at Barclays. “Some will clearly choose to take the money and run,” added Glover.

James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares told CNBC the overhang of the nearly $9 billion of bitcoin set to be released has “long been a concern for those with bullish views on bitcoin.”

Consequently, the market is highly sensitive to any related news. With the announcement that the Trust will begin selling in July, investors are understandably worried,” said Butterfill.

Read more about tech and crypto from CNBC Pro

It wouldn’t be the first time bitcoin’s moved in reaction to big redemptions of funds locked up in centralized trading platforms.

Last month, crypto exchange Gemini returned more than $2 billion worth of bitcoin to users with funds that had been trapped in its Earn lending program, marking a 230% recovery after bitcoin prices more than tripled since Gemini suspended Earn withdrawals on Nov. 16.

JPMorgan analysts linked this to negative price action, saying in a research note last week that it’s “fair to assume that some of Gemini creditors, which are mostly retail customers, have taken at least partial profits in recent weeks.”

Similarly, JPMorgan analysts expect Mt. Gox customers to be similarly inclined to sell some of their bitcoin to profit from seismic gains for the cryptocurrency.

“Assuming most of the liquidations by Mt. Gox creditors take place in July, [this] creates a trajectory where crypto prices come under further pressure in July, but start rebounding from August onwards,” they wrote.

Separately last month, the German government sold 5,000 — worth approximately $305.8 million as of Thursday’s prices — of a 50,000-bitcoin pile seized in connection with the movie piracy operation Movi2k.

The funds were sent to various crypto exchanges, including Coinbase, Kraken, and Bitstamp, according to blockchain intelligence firm Arkham Intelligence.

Analysts say these crypto liquidations, too, have placed pressure on bitcoin’s price.

NYSE's Martin: Can't argue with success of Bitcoin ETFs and liquidity it's brought to markets

Mt. Gox customers expected to hang on to their bitcoin

Most analysts agree losses in bitcoin are likely to be contained and short-lived.

“I think that sell-off concerns relating to Mt. Gox will likely be short-term,” said Lennix Lai, chief commercial officer of crypto exchange OKX.

“Many of Mt. Gox’s early users as well as creditors are long-term bitcoin enthusiasts who are less likely to sell all of their bitcoin immediately,” he said, adding previous sell-offs by law enforcement, including the Silk Road case, did not result in a sustained catastrophic price drop.

Butterfill suggested there’s enough market liquidity to cushion the blow of any possible mass market sell action.

“Bitcoin has maintained a daily trading volume of $8.74 billion on trusted exchanges this year, suggesting that liquidity is sufficient to absorb these sales over the summer months,” said Butterfill.

According to CCData research analyst, Jacob Joseph, the markets are more than capable of absorbing the selling pressure.

“Moreover, a healthy part of the creditors are likely to take a 10% haircut on their holdings to receive the repayment early, and not all holdings are set to be liquidated on the open market, reducing the overall selling pressure,” he said.

How Wall Street learned to love bitcoin

Recent price moves suggest the temporary impact of the Mt. Gox repayments may already be priced in, Joseph added.

Galaxy Digital’s head of research, Alex Thorn, believes fewer coins will be distributed than people think, meaning there will be less sell pressure than the market expects.

However, he also wrote in May that, even if only 10% of the bitcoin distributed is sold, “it will have a market impact.” 

“Most of the individual creditors will have their coins deposited directly into a trading account at an exchange, making it extremely easy to sell,” Thorn said.

Vijay Ayyar, head of consumer growth for Asia-Pacific at crypto exchange Gemini, said that the overall impact of the Mt. Gox disbursement is likely to be “dissipated,” given the recipients of the funds are varied.

On the one hand, there are individual holders who will get their bitcoin straight away. Then there’s the “significant amount” of bitcoin that will be disbursed out to claims funds, Ayyar said.

“Those funds would then need to distribute these out to their LPs [limited partners], hence the whole process could take a while adding a time element to the impact on price,” he told CNBC.

Macro headwinds behind bitcoin’s fall

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Bitcoin’s U.S. dollar price performance, year-to-date.

But investors have remained anxious amid outflows from bitcoin ETFs and sizable market liquidations. The broader macro environment, too, has investors worried.

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve suggested it plans to cut rates just once this year, down from the multiple cuts it had indicated previously.

Cryptocurrencies, which are inherently volatile, are particularly sensitive to changes in the interest rate environment.

CoinShares’ Butterfill said the Fed’s new rate forecast was among “the likely culprits for the recent price decline” in bitcoin.

This, along with other issues, is “likely to weigh on prices in the lower volume summer months,” Butterfill said. However, “the fundamental investment case remains very much intact,” he added.

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Tesla unveils its LFP battery factory, claims it’s almost ready

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Tesla unveils its LFP battery factory, claims it's almost ready

Tesla has unveiled its lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) battery cell factory in Nevada and claims that it is nearly ready to start production.

Like several other automakers using LFP cells, Tesla relies heavily on Chinese manufacturers for its battery cell supply.

Tesla’s cheapest electric vehicles all utilize LFP cells, and its entire range of energy storage products, Megapacks and Powerwalls, also employ the more affordable LFP cell chemistry from Chinese manufacturers.

This reliance on Chinese manufacturers is less than ideal and particularly complicated for US automakers and battery pack manufacturers like Tesla, amid an ongoing trade war between the US and virtually the entire world, including China.

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As of last year, a 25% tariff already applied to battery cells from China, but this increased to more than 80% under Trump before he paused some tariffs on China. It remains unclear where they will end up by the time negotiations are complete and the trade war is resolved, but many expect it to be higher.

Prior to Trump taking power, Tesla had already planned to build a small LFP battery factory in the US to avoid the 25% tariffs.

The automaker had secured older manufacturing equipment from one of its battery cell suppliers, CATL, and planned to deploy it in the US for small-scale production.

Tesla has now released new images of the factory in Nevada and claimed that it is “nearing completion”:

Here are a few images from inside the factory (via Tesla):

Previous reporting stated that Tesla aims to produce about 10 GWh of LFP battery cells per year at the new factory.

The cells are expected to be used in Tesla’s Megapack, produced in the US. Tesla currently has a capacity to produce 40 GWh of Megapacks annually at its factory in California. The company is also working on a new Megapack factory in Texas.

Ford is also developing its own LFP battery cell factory in Michigan, but this facility is significantly larger, with a planned production capacity of 35 GWh.

Electrek’s Take

It’s nice to see this in the US. LFP was a US/Canada invention, with Arumugam Manthiram and John B. Goodenough doing much of the early work, and researchers in Quebec making several contributions to help with commercialization.

But China saw the potential early and invested heavily in volume manufacturing of LFP cells and it now dominates the market.

Tesla is now producing most of its vehicles with LFP cells and all its stationary energy storage products.

It makes sense to invest in your own production. However, Tesla is unlikely to catch up to BYD and CATL, which dominate LFP cell production.

The move will help Tesla avoid tariffs on a small percentage of its Megapacks produced in the US. Ford’s effort is more ambitious.

It’s worth noting that both Ford’s and Tesla’s LFP plants were planned before Trump’s tariffs, which have had limited success in bringing manufacturing back to the US.

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Senate votes to send 2 million US jobs to China, increase deficit, energy costs

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Senate votes to send 2 million US jobs to China, increase deficit, energy costs

Senate republicans passed their version of the republican tax bill previously passed by the House. The bill retains most of the bad parts of the House bill, and still kills a slew of tax credits to help working families become more energy efficient, improve US air quality, and boost US manufacturing – instead channeling that money to wealthy elites, increasing the deficit by trillions of dollars along the way.

The Senate bill retains much of the language killing off energy efficiency credits and credits responsible for green manufacturing growth in the US.

The credits were largely established under President Biden as part of the Inflation Reduction Act, which raised hundreds of billions of dollars through tax enforcement on wealthy individuals and corporations and channeled that into energy efficiency credits for American families.

We’ve covered how families could save thousands of dollars on upgrades to lower their energy costs through these credits.

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But these credits aren’t just money-saving for Americans, they also work to boost American manufacturing, due to various provisions in the bill, particularly around the $7,500 EV tax credit which was limited to cars that undergo final assembly in North America.

While loopholes exist, nevertheless the IRA resulted in a massive expansion of American manufacturing, driving hundreds of billions of dollars of investment and creating hundreds of thousands of jobs.

So of course, republicans want to repeal this good thing. The republican tax plan currently working through Congress repeals most of the credits established in the IRA which were responsible for this boom in investment.

Republicans in the House narrowly passed their version of the bill in May, which then went to the Senate and was modified. The Senate mostly kept the job-killing language of the House bill, eliminating consumer and business tax credits that helped to spur investment in US manufacturing – specifically the 30D and 25E credits for new & used clean vehicles, the commercial clean vehicle credit, the EV charger credit, and funding to reduce pollution from heavy duty vehicles. Many of these credits have domestic sourcing provisions which encouraged companies to establish US manufacturing facilities.

It’s estimated that the elimination of these credits will kill 2 million jobs by nipping a nascent US EV manufacturing boom in the bud before it really gets started. Many of those jobs will be lost in states whose Senators voted for the bill, like Tennessee and South Carolina which will lose 140k and 135k jobs respectively. All four Senators from those states – Marsha Blackburn, Bill Hagerty, Lindsey Graham, and Tim Scott – voted to put their constituents out on the street.

All told, every Democrat voted against the job-killing, deficit-increasing measure, and three republicans had even a small amount of good sense and joined to oppose the bill – Susan Collins of Maine, Rand Paul of Kentucky, and Thom Tillis of North Carolina. But it managed to pass with a 50-50 vote with tiebreaker from J.D. Vance, the runningmate of the convicted felon currently squatting in the White House (despite being Constitutionally barred from holding office in the US).

Originally, there were additional measures in the bill that seemed to have been included just out of spite. For example, republicans wanted to sell off USPS’ awesome new EVs for scrap, losing billions of dollars in the process and killing the American jobs building them. And republicans wanted to add a punitive tax on EVs while subsidizing gas vehicles even more, increasing the budget shortfall for highways.

Thankfully, neither the USPS or registration tax measures seem to have made it into the final Senate bill, but the main measures killing American jobs have remained.

The Senate bill is, in some ways, worse than the House bill. For example, it eliminates the consumer EV credit 3 months earlier, thus increasing inflation faster for one of the most costly items that a consumer owns – their car. And that won’t just affect EVs – by making EVs $7,500 more expensive, competing gas vehicles will feel less downward pressure on price from the competition of cleaner, cheaper-to-own EVs, and manufacturers could well increase prices.

All of this occurs in the context of a global automotive industry which is rapidly shifting to electrification, currently led by China. China is the number one EV maker in the world, and is rapidly transforming its manufacturing industry to meet the needs of the future.

Domestic EV sales in China have ballooned in recent years. China got a slower start than some countries, having low EV penetration until around 2020, but has gone exponential in recent years. In 2023, ICE car values began to plummet and these cars became unsellable in China, acting as a canary in the coal mine for what will happen to the global auto industry if other automaking countries don’t take EVs seriously.

It’s estimated that this year, China will sell more EVs than the US sells cars overall.

But China is not just the number one EV maker, it’s also the number one car maker. As of last year, China is the top auto exporter in the world, eclipsing Japan which had been the primary holder of that title for decades.

Japan came to international prominence in automotive manufacturing in the 1970s, led primarily by the adoption of technologies that better confronted the environmental challenges of the day, while Western automakers continued to try to sell unpopular, inefficient gas guzzlers. Western governments failed to recognize the threat of growing overseas competition, and responded fecklessly with tariffs that didn’t work. Sound familiar?

And so, the Senate bill, which would strangle the attempt to catch US EV manufacturing up to China’s long-planned dominance of the field, will only serve to reduce potential international competition to the rise of China. China is taking EVs seriously, and the US could have, if it weren’t for the spiteful actions of the republicans.

They’re trying to kill off these manufacturing investments likely to snub one of President Biden’s biggest wins, and as a giveaway to the fossil fuel industry that bribes them disproportionately. But all this will do is harm US manufacturing and make Americans sicker and poorer – and help the US’ geopolitical rivals step into the vacuum left by America’s abdication of the auto industry.

The bill now moves back to the House, where that body will have its chance to vote on the changes made in the Senate bill. The last vote passed by the narrowest possible majority, so it’s possible that the changes will kill the bill in the House, but given the recent history of republicans as wanting to make literally everything worse out of spite, it might take a miracle.

If you happen to want good things to happen to America, instead of bad things, you could perhaps call your Congressperson and ask them to vote against this job-killing, deficit-increasing, inflation-causing bill.


Another thing republicans want to kill is the rooftop solar credit. That means you could have only until the end of this year to install rooftop solar on your home, before republicans raise the cost of doing so by an average of ~$10,000. So if you want to go solar, get started now, because these things take time and the system needs to be active before you file for the credit.

To make sure you find a trusted, reliable solar installer near you that offers competitive pricing, check out EnergySage, a free service that makes it easy for you to go solar. It has hundreds of pre-vetted solar installers competing for your business, ensuring you get high-quality solutions and save 20-30% compared to going it alone. Plus, it’s free to use, and you won’t get sales calls until you select an installer and share your phone number with them.

Your personalized solar quotes are easy to compare online and you’ll get access to unbiased Energy Advisors to help you every step of the way. Get started here. – ad*

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Komatsu scores $440 million electric mining equipment sale in Pakistan

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Komatsu scores 0 million electric mining equipment sale in Pakistan

Barrick Mining Corp. and Komatsu have formalized a $440 million deal that will see the Japanese construction giant begin delivering electric and electrified mining equipment assets to the company’s Reko Diq copper-gold project in Pakistan.

When Komatsu announced its 400-ton PC4000-11E hydraulic mining excavator last year, you knew it was only a matter of time before the world’s largest mining operations — keen to decarbonize — would come knocking.

“The Reko Diq project represents a long-term investment in our future and that of mining in Pakistan, and our partnership with Komatsu is an important part of that vision,” explains Mark Bristow, Barrick president and CEO. “Komatsu equipment has proven its performance and reliability at our operations worldwide, and we are confident in its ability to support our goals at Reko Diq. We look forward to building on this strong relationship as we develop one of the world’s newest greenfield assets.”

Big spending, bigger savings


The equipment package includes haulers, electric rope shovels, mining excavators, and electric wheel loaders
P&H 4100XPC AC electric rope shovel and haul truck, via Komatsu.

The new electric drives featured in the 409 ton Komatsu PC4000-11E (at top) and Komatsu-owned P&H grid-connected electric rope shovel (above) are designed to reduce job site emissions by up to 95%. And, when paired the Komatsu Trolley Truck Assist System, the company says its new hydraulic excavator can offer a 50% savings in the total cost of ownership compared to a similar, conventional Tier 4 diesel drive equipment.

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That 50% number? It’s not just a projection – It’s backed by real-world data. Komatsu says customers using the PC4000-11E in pilot programs have already realized 47% savings in total cost of ownership.

The fully automatic cable drum is designed for easier operation of the electrically driven excavator in backhoe configuration. The automatic winding of the cable makes maneuvering in the pit significantly easier and saves time. Simplified electric machine control enables fast troubleshooting and maintenance of the electrical system and contributes significantly to increasing the overall availability of the machine and helping our customers work toward achieving the highest safety standards.

KOMATSU

“We see ourselves as partners to our customers, supporting and collaborating with them on their journey toward a more sustainable and efficient mining operation,” explains Peter Buhles, Vice President Sales and Service, Komatsu Germany GmbH – Mining Division. “We are looking forward to meeting everyone in person at our booth and showcasing our latest technical solutions for hydraulic mining excavators.”

Barrick Mining’s order includes an undisclosed mix of assets that includes a number of ultra-class haul trucks, mining excavators, rope shovels, and wheel loaders. Barrick will begin receiving the first examples of its new Komatsu mining machinery at its Pakistani operations in early 2026.

Electrek’s Take


Komatsu supports Barrick’s Middle East mining project with $440 million in equipment
980E electric haul truck; via Komatsu.

With billions of dollars on the line and pressure to reduce carbon emissions coming from all sides, it should come as no surprise that the race is on to bring practical, electric, and even autonomous heavy mining equipment to market. At CES 2024, electric equipment from HyundaiBobcat, Volvo CE, Caterpillar, and others garnered lots of attention with their innovative concepts, and analysts like IDTechEx estimate that a single 150-ton haul truck can use over $850,000 worth of fuel in a single year.

Meanwhile, big electric locomotives like the Fortescue Infinity Train can, in certain use cases with high amounts of regenerative braking, operate without any significant cost to recharge. At that point, the reduced maintenance and downtime of BEVs compared to diesel vehicles becomes icing on the TCO cake.

SOURCE | IMAGES: Barrick Mining, via Heavy Equipment Guide.


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Your personalized solar quotes are easy to compare online and you’ll get access to unbiased Energy Advisors to help you every step of the way. Get started here.

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