General Election 2024: Five things the main parties aren’t talking about this election
The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) says there’s a conspiracy of silence this election – that all of the major political parties aren’t being honest enough about their fiscal plans this election.
And they have a point. Most obviously (and this is the main thing the IFS is complaining about) none of the major manifestos – from Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the Conservative parties – have been clear about how they will fill an impending black hole in the government’s spending plans.
No need to go into all the gritty details, but the overarching point is that all government spending plans include some broad assumptions about how much spending (and for that matter, taxes and economic growth) will grow in the coming years. Economists call this the “baseline”.
But there’s a problem with this baseline: it assumes quite a slow increase in overall government spending in the next four years, an average of about 1 per cent a year after accounting for inflation. Which doesn’t sound too bad except that we all know from experience that NHS spending always grows more quickly than that, and that 1 per cent needs to accommodate all sorts of other promises, like increasing schools and defence spending and so on.
NHS spending grows more quickly than the ‘baseline’
If all those bits of government are going to consume quite a lot of that extra money (far more than a 1 per cent increase, certainly) then other bits of government won’t get as much. In fact, the IFS reckons those other bits of government – from the Home Office to the legal system – will face annual cuts of 3.5 per cent. In other words, it’s austerity all over again.
But here’s the genius thing (for the politicians, at least). While they have to set a baseline, to make all their other sums add up, the dysfunctional nature of the way government sets its spending budgets means it only has to fill in the small print about which department gets what when it does a spending review. And that spending review isn’t due until after the election.
The upshot is all the parties can pretend they’ve signed up to the baseline even when it’s patently obvious that more money will be needed for those unprotected departments (or else it’s a return to austerity).
So yes, the IFS is right: the numbers in each manifesto, including Labour’s, are massively overshadowed by this other bigger conspiracy of silence.
But I would argue that actually the conspiracy of silence goes even deeper. Because it’s not just fiscal baselines we’re not talking about enough. Consider five other issues none of the major parties is confronting (when I say major parties, in this case I’m talking about the Conservative, Labour and Lib Dem manifestos – to some extent the Green and Reform manifestos are somewhat less guilty of these particular sins, even if they commit others).
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Taxes going up
First, for all their promises not to raise any of the major tax rates (something Labour, the Conservatives and Lib Dems have all committed to) the reality is taxes are going up. We will all be paying more in taxes by the end of the parliament compared with today.
Indeed, we’ll all be paying more income tax. Except that we’ll be paying more of it because we’ll be paying tax on more of our income – that’s the inexorable logic of freezing the thresholds at which you start paying certain rates of tax (which is what this government has done – and none of the other parties say they’ll reverse).
Second, the main parties might say they believe in different things, but they all seem to believe in one particular offbeat religion: the magic tax avoidance money tree. All three of these manifestos assume they will make enormous sums – more, actually, than from any single other money-raising measure – from tightening up tax avoidance rules.
While it’s perfectly plausible that you could raise at least some money from clamping down on tax avoidance, it’s hardly a slam-dunk. That this is the centrepiece of each party’s money-raising efforts says a lot. And, another thing that’s often glossed over: raising more money this way will also raise the tax burden.
Should the Bank of England be paying large sums in interest to banks? File pic: AP
Third is another thing all the parties agree on and are desperate not to question: the fiscal rules. The government has a set of rules requiring it to keep borrowing and (more importantly given where the numbers are right now) total debt down to a certain level.
But here’s the thing. These rules are not god-given. They are not necessarily even all that good. The debt rule is utterly gameable. It hasn’t stopped the Conservatives raising the national debt to the highest level in decades. And it’s not altogether clear the particular measure of debt being used (net debt excluding Bank of England interventions) is even the right one.
Which raises another micro-conspiracy. Of all the parties at this election, the only one talking about whether the Bank of England should really be paying large sums in interest to banks as it winds up its quantitative easing programme is the Reform Party. This policy, first posited by a left-wing thinktank (the New Economics Foundation) is something many economists are discussing. It’s something the Labour Party will quite plausibly carry out to raise some extra money if it gets elected. But no one wants to discuss it. Odd.
Brexit impact
Anyway, the fourth issue everyone seems to have agreed not to discuss is, you’ve guessed it, Brexit. While the 2019 election was all about Brexit, this one, by contrast, has barely featured the B word. Perhaps you’re relieved. For a lot of people we’ve talked so much about Brexit over the past decade or so that, frankly, we need a bit of a break. That’s certainly what the main parties seem to have concluded.
But while the impact of leaving the European Union is often overstated (no, it’s not responsible for every one of our economic problems) it’s far from irrelevant to our economic plight. And where we go with our economic neighbours is a non-trivial issue in the future.
Anyway, this brings us to the fifth and final thing no one is talking about. The fact that pretty much all the guff spouted on the campaign trail is completely dwarfed by bigger international issues they seem reluctant or ill-equipped to discuss. Take the example of China and electric cars.
Brexit has barely featured in the election. File pic: Victoria Jones/PA
Just recently, both the US and European Union have announced large tariffs on the import of Chinese EVs. Now, in America’s case those tariffs are primarily performative (the country imports only a tiny quantity of Chinese EVs). But in Europe‘s case Chinese EVs are a very substantial part of the market – same for the UK.
Raising the question: what is the UK going to do? You could make a strong case for saying Britain should be emulating the EU and US, in an effort to protect the domestic car market. After all, failing to impose tariffs will mean this country will have a tidal wave of cars coming from China (especially since they can no longer go to the rest of the continent without facing tariffs) which will make it even harder for domestic carmakers to compete. And they’re already struggling to compete.
By the same token, imposing tariffs will mean the cost of those cheap Chinese-made cars (think: MGs, most Teslas and all those newfangled BYDs and so on) will go up. A lot. Is this really the right moment to impose those extra costs on consumers.
In short, this is quite a big issue. Yet it hasn’t come up as a big issue in this campaign. Which is madness. But then you could say the same thing about, say, the broader race for minerals, about net zero policy more widely and about how we’re going to go about tightening up sanctions on Russia to make them more effective.
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Parochial election
Elections are always parochial but given the scale of these big, international issues (and there are many more), this one feels especially parochial.
So in short: yes, there have been lots of gaps. Enormous gaps. The “conspiracy of silence” goes way, way beyond the stuff the IFS has talked about.
But ’twas ever thus.
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Think back to the last time a political party actually confronted some long-standing issues no one wanted to talk about in their manifesto. I’m talking about the 2017 Conservative manifesto, which pledged to resolve the mess of social care in this country, once and for all.
It sought to confront a big social issue, intergenerational inequality, in so doing ensuring younger people wouldn’t have to subsidise the elderly.
The manifesto was an absolute, abject, electoral disaster. It was largely responsible for Theresa May‘s slide in the polls from a 20 point lead to a hung parliament.
And while most people don’t talk about that manifesto anymore, make no mistake: today’s political strategists won’t forget it in a hurry. Hence why this year’s campaign and this year’s major manifestos are so thin.
Elections are rarely won on policy proposals. But they are sometimes lost on them.
It is “difficult” to give a “cast iron guarantee” that lives won’t be lost because of a coal tip disaster, the deputy first minister of Wales has told Sky News.
Nearly 60 years since the Aberfan disaster, which killed 144 people when coal waste slid down the side of a mountain into a school, £130m has been invested in securing waste left behind by coal mining operations.
Earlier this year, the Welsh government said up to £600m could be needed to secure coal tips across the nation.
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Rescuers search for bodies in the aftermath of Aberfan disaster, Oct 1966. Pic: AP
Olivia White, who lives beneath a disused coal heap in Cwmtillery that has been deemed a potential risk to public safety, says she is living with “horrific fear every day, waking up thinking we’re lucky we’re here again today”.
Ms White’s home was one of around 40 evacuated when part of the coal tip collapsed last year. She says she will never forget opening the door and “thick, dirty sludge pouring through”.
Huw Irranca-Davies visits residents in Cwmtillery. Pic: Welsh government
She warned: “I think it is going to take somebody to die or something awful to happen until they realise how serious this is. That’s what it feels like. Aberfan just lingers over me all the time”.
Her neighbour, Zara Cotterell, says it was “very lucky” that children weren’t playing outside at that time.
She says: “It was 7.30pm, if it was 5.30pm the street above would have had all the children playing; it took a car, it took a garage, it would have taken lives.”
Work is under way to secure the tip at Cwmtillery, which could collapse again, but both women say they feel “no one is listening” to them.
Rob Scholes, 75, moves through mud at the site of a mudslide in Cwmtillery, South Wales
There are 2,573 disused coal tips across Wales, 360 of which are categorised as having a potential impact on public safety.
Deputy First Minister Huw Irranca-Davies says he can give people an “absolute guarantee” that no expense is being spared to fix the problem.
However, he said it is “pretty difficult” to give a “cast iron guarantee” that people are safe.
“It’s an almost impossible question,” he said.
Cars on a street affected by a mudslide, in the aftermath of Storm Bert, in Cwmtillery last November
Mr Irranca-Davies said the Welsh government has spent the last five years assessing which tips are the most high risk and work is starting to secure them.
He added that the £600m figure is a long-term goal to totally clear the tips, not all of which are high risk.
In the autumn budget, the UK government provided the Welsh government with £25m for essential work on disused coal tips. The Welsh finance minister Mark Drakeford is seeking a £91m commitment over three years from Westminster.
Mr Irranca-Davies says it is “great” that “after years of asking” there has been a contribution from the UK government.
Wales Secretary Jo Stevens says she wants people to feel reassured that coal tips are being inspected regularly and the “significant sum of money” given in the autumn budget will deal with the risks.
Plaid Cymru says the £25m from Westminster falls short of what should be paid, adding that Wales “can’t afford to wait for a tragedy to happen”.
Delyth Jewell, a member of the Senedd for South Wales East, says the coal tips are “ticking time bombs” and “Westminster should be paying to clear these tips”.
“Money, it’s not a question of [it] should be found. Money has to be found because this is correcting a historic injustice that should never have happened,” she said.
“And if they can’t prioritise clearing the coal tips in the valleys, who do they even represent? Who do they stand for?
“The legacy of Aberfan hangs over these communities.”
UK
Pupils and teachers voice fears over ‘staggering’ decision to remove specialist police officers from London schools
London schools are at risk of “increased violence” and “gang exploitation” following the decision to remove specialist police officers, headteachers have told Sky News.
Education leaders are “urging” the Metropolitan Police to reconsider a decision to transfer 371 safer schools officers into neighbourhood policing teams next month.
Teachers warn pupils will be at “greater risk” of violence as a result – and some students told Sky News they were worried “more knives” and “more drugs” would be brought into schools.
Safer schools officers were introduced into London schools in 2009, where they help de-escalate peer-on-peer conflict and prevent youth involvement in crime.
In a letter obtained by Sky News, a group of 15 headteachers from secondary schools in northeast London have written to the Met Police warning that “without the support of safer school officers, vulnerable students may become prey to exploitation and, in turn, perpetrators of crime”.
Sam Jones, chair of The Waltham Forest Secondary Heads group, which wrote the letter, said teachers were “extremely concerned” about the withdrawal of safer school officers and they had not been consulted about the decision.
Sam Jones is the chair of The Waltham Forest Secondary Heads group
Mr Jones told Sky News that the decision was “very misguided”.
“We think that it will increase in violence, potentially increase bullying and weapons-related incidents,” he said.
Safer schools officers are a “key deterrent when it comes to gang recruitment and county lines issues,” he added.
“I think this is a huge backward step.”
Knife crime hit a record high of 16,521 offences in London in the year ending September 2024 – an 18% increase from the previous year, according to the Office for National Statistics.
A Sky News survey of secondary school teachers in England revealed almost one in five had seen pupils with knives in schools.
Students from Footsteps Trust in London said the removal of officers could make schools more violent.
“There will be more knives,” Tyrelle, 14, told Sky News. “There will be fighting, there will be drugs coming into school and no one will be there to actually stop it.”
“If anything happens outside of school you can tell them [the safer school officer] and let them know,” he added.
Tyrelle believes the Met’s decision means there will be more knives in schools
Another pupil, Mikolej, 15, said having an officer in their school had been a “good thing” that had helped young people “speak more to police officers outside of school”.
Mikolej said having an officer in school had helped young people
Chris Hall, headteacher of Footsteps Trust, told Sky News it was “quite staggering” that no one in education was consulted about the decision.
He said the school-based officers had been “very, very, valuable assets” who had helped familiarise “young people with the police in the most positive way”.
Chris Hall, the headteacher at Footsteps Trust, said the lack of consultation was ‘staggering’
“I would 100% ask them [the Met] to re-consider,” Mr Hall said.
Walthamstow MP Stella Creasy echoed calls for the police force to think again, telling Sky News she hoped the force would “sit down with all of us so that we can work together on this”.
In a letter to headteachers, the Met said the changes will come into effect from 2 May and that the decision was “not made lightly”.
The force said the changes aimed to improve their presence in the community.
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Glen Pavelin, frontline policing commander for neighbourhoods, said: “Although officers will no longer be based in schools, they will join local policing teams where they will retain strong relationships with schools to ensure that any incidents of reports of knife crime can be dealt with quickly.
“Officers will also work with local organisations and other youth-based establishments to safeguard young people, prevent victimisation and reduce crime and anti-social behaviour beyond schools.”
The Met Police announced last week it will cut 1,700 officers and staff to plug a £260m budget shortfall.
UK
How King Charles and his ‘darling’ Queen Camilla have navigated their 50-year love affair as they mark 20th wedding anniversary
Exactly 20 years ago today, the now King and Queen were married in a small, private civil ceremony in Windsor.
The wedding, which was eight years after Princess Diana’s death, divided the nation – with royal aides even fearing the newlyweds might have things thrown at them.
But on 9 April 2025, life is very different for the couple, who have appeared relaxed and happy this week on their first royal visit to Italy as King and Queen.
The King and Queen in Rome this week. Pic: Chris Jackson/Getty
In recent years, they have navigated the death of Queen Elizabeth II, the King’s ill-health, increasing Republican sentiment across the Commonwealth, and strained relationships with family members at home and abroad.
Here we look at their five-decade relationship – and how things have changed since they got married.
‘They hold each other up’
The late Queen Elizabeth II famously referred to the Duke of Edinburgh as her “strength and stay” during their 73-year marriage.
In Charles and Camilla’s relationship, humour plays a big role in coping with the demands of royal life, Kristina Kyriacou, who served as the King’s communications secretary from 2009 to 2018, tells Sky News.
“I would often see them laughing with one another – at some engagements they’d even take to the dance floor together,” she says.
The Royal Family pose for a photograph on Charles and Camilla’s wedding day. Pic: PA
The King’s Speech during the state opening of Parliament in July 2024. Pic: Reuters
King Charles and Queen Camilla are like “bookends” to one another, former BBC royal correspondent Michael Cole tells Sky News.
“They hold each other up. They’re very devoted to one another,” he says.
Fears eggs would be thrown at wedding
But it hasn’t always been easy – as many longstanding royal watchers will remember.
When they were married, in the eyes of some, Camilla was still the “third person” in her husband’s previous marriage to Princess Diana.
With the late Queen’s blessing to take her title when she died in 2022, Queen Camilla is now part of the “bedrock” of the Royal Family, according to royal experts.
During a rare interview with British Vogue to mark her 75th birthday in 2022, the Queen recalled: “I was scrutinised for such a long time that you just have to find a way to live with it.
“Nobody likes to be looked at all the time and criticised. But I think in the end, I sort of rise above it and get on with it.”
The couple with the late Queen after their blessing in Windsor in April 2005. Pic: PA
Amid lingering public discontent over the breakdown of Charles and Diana’s marriage, his second wedding was a muted affair.
It was held at the Windsor Guildhall and not broadcast live on television. Charles didn’t wear his military garb and Camilla didn’t wear white.
The late Queen didn’t attend the ceremony but was there for the reception at Windsor Castle.
Mr Cole says: “Buckingham Palace had a real fear they would have eggs thrown at them, so the ceremonial parades were kept to a minimum.”
Camilla, out of respect for Diana, took Duchess of Cornwall as her title, not Princess of Wales. Almost two decades later, however, she received the ultimate symbol of approval when the late Queen ruled that Camilla would replace her as Queen when she died.
“They’ve just gone out there consistently and done their job and I think they’ve earned respect for that,” Ms Kyriacou says. “Eventually memories fade and people instead accept people for who they are.”
Charles and Camilla on the way to their honeymoon in 2005. Pic: PA
Charles and Camilla at a polo event in June 2005. Pic: PA
The couple in February 2005. Pic: PA
“It was all done gradually,” Mr Cole says. “Step by step, the idea that they were together was introduced to the public.”
So how did it all begin?
Failed first relationship
The relationship stretches back 55 years, to when Prince Charles and Camilla Shand are thought to have met for the first time at a polo match in London in 1970.
Camilla, the daughter of an esteemed military officer, had been in an on-off relationship with Andrew Parker Bowles, a captain with The Blues and Royals regiment of the British Army.
Charles and Camilla at a polo match in 1975. Pic: Shutterstock
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Charles had only been officially invested with the title of the Prince of Wales a year earlier and was fresh out of Cambridge University and RAF training.
Having bonded over a shared love of polo and countryside pursuits, they dated for around two years before the prince left to join the Navy and Camilla rekindled her romance with Mr Parker Bowles, marrying him a year later in 1973.
Charles and Camilla leave the theatre in London in February 1975. Pic: PA
Over the years, many have cited the now King’s military commitments as the reason their initial relationship broke down.
But Mr Cole recalls it differently. “It would be wrong to say that he ‘missed the bus’ and could have married her then, but hesitated,” he says. “The fact was she loved Andrew Parker Bowles.”
He adds that at that point, Camilla would not have been considered by the Queen and her advisers to be a suitable bride for the heir to the throne because she had a “past” (as it was put then) – meaning earlier relationships before meeting Charles.
‘Third person’ in Charles and Diana’s marriage
In the years that followed, the young Prince Charles was under pressure to marry and began dating Lady Diana Spencer, the younger sister of his ex-girlfriend Sarah.
Prince Charles and Lady Diana Spencer pose for their engagement photo in 1981. Pic: PA
Camilla and Andrew Parker Bowles at Buckingham Palace in 1984 with their children to get his OBE from the Queen. Pic: PA
By that stage, Camilla had given birth to two children, Tom in 1974 and Laura in 1978.
Diana famously told Newsnight in 1995 that “there were three of us in this marriage” – the third person being Camilla.
Camilla and Diana in October 1980. Pic: PA
Charles admitted adultery in a 1994 interview with Jonathan Dimbleby – a precursor to Diana’s explosive Newsnight interview. He confessed he had been unfaithful after their marriage “irretrievably broke down”.
Further evidence came in the form of the “Tampongate” tape, a recording of a phone call between Charles and Camilla in which they exchanged sexual innuendos.
While the contents of the call weren’t leaked until 1993 – a year after Charles and Diana announced their separation – the conversation reportedly took place in 1989, when they were both married to other people.
Charles and Camilla at the Mey Highland Games in 2003. Pic: PA
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Charles Anson, former press secretary to Queen Elizabeth II from 1990 to 1997, says that while it wasn’t palace business to be commenting on private relationships, it was an “issue” that had to be navigated carefully.
“It was a feature of life at that time and therefore something that needed to be handled,” he says. “Prince Charles and Camilla were part of the landscape.”
According to Mr Cole, it was always Charles driving their relationship in the early days.
“She was happy with her life in the countryside, with her children, and would have been quite happy to remain his mistress – she didn’t expect anything else,” he says. “But for Charles it was non-negotiable, he had to have her.”
The pair at Sandringham in March 2002. Pic: PA
Going public
The breakdown of Charles and Diana’s marriage dominated headlines as one of the biggest news stories of its time.
It wasn’t until after Diana died that Charles and Camilla officially appeared in public together – at a birthday party for Camilla’s sister Annabel Elliot at the Ritz Hotel in early 1999.
Camilla arrives at her 50th birthday party at Highgrove in July 1997. Pic: PA
However, a month before Diana’s death in Paris in the summer of 1997, Charles threw a birthday party for Camilla at his Gloucestershire country home, Highgrove.
The late Queen did not attend. She reportedly only agreed to formally meet Camilla in 2000.
Charles and Camilla pictured as a couple in public together for the first time in London in 1999. Pic: PA
The couple attend a Prince’s Foundation gala in June 2000. Pic: PA
Standing the test of time
Mr Anson, former press secretary to Queen Elizabeth II from 1990 to 1997, now describes their relationship as the “bedrock of the monarchy”.
Ultimately, it’s their love for one another which has seen their “partnership stand the test of time”, Ms Kyriacou says.
“I remember King Charles consistently referring to Queen Camilla as his ‘darling wife’. And that’s very touching – and it’s how I will remember them on their 20th wedding anniversary.”
At a Clarence House reception in March 2025. Pic: PA
In her Vogue interview, the Queen revealed they always try to make quality time for one another.
“It’s not easy sometimes, but we do always try to have a point in the day when we meet,” she said. “Sometimes it’s like ships passing in the night, but we always sit down together and have a cup of tea and discuss the day.”
Ms Kyriacou remembers this, telling Sky News: “They don’t do every single engagement together, but no matter what, they will try to share breakfast or dinner.
“Being a member of the Royal Family is a privileged position but my impression was that it must also be very lonely when you are constantly under intense public scrutiny – your inner circle is so small. So to have someone you can trust implicitly, who you can share everything with and who understands that is what carries them through.”
The King and Queen prepare donation bags with dates for Ramadan in February 2025. Pic: Reuters
Stopping for a whiskey tasting on Northern Ireland visit. Pic: Reuters
This has likely been even more important as the King navigates his cancer treatment, she adds.
“For over 50 years of public life he has been indefatigable in terms of how many engagements he takes on,” Ms Kyriacou says.
“So he tries not to draw attention to himself. He tells people just enough, but he’s still trying to be humorous, compassionate, affable. And the Queen understands this – that he cannot let his emotions come first – that his public persona has to stay very neutral.”
The couple during a visit to a Samoan village in 2024. Pic: Reuters
The King and Queen lead the Royal Family as they arrive at church on Christmas Day 2024. Pic: PA
But she will also use that “mutual respect” to be firm with him about what he needs.
“Particularly in these times of ill-health, I should imagine the Queen can temper the King’s workaholic nature and make strong suggestions to him to take more time to relax,” she says.
“Everything challenging they’ve been through will almost certainly have been halved because they’ve gone through it together.”
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