General Election 2024: Five things the main parties aren’t talking about this election

Published

11 months ago

July 1, 2024

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) says there’s a conspiracy of silence this election – that all of the major political parties aren’t being honest enough about their fiscal plans this election.

And they have a point. Most obviously (and this is the main thing the IFS is complaining about) none of the major manifestos – from Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the Conservative parties – have been clear about how they will fill an impending black hole in the government’s spending plans.

No need to go into all the gritty details, but the overarching point is that all government spending plans include some broad assumptions about how much spending (and for that matter, taxes and economic growth) will grow in the coming years. Economists call this the “baseline”.

But there’s a problem with this baseline: it assumes quite a slow increase in overall government spending in the next four years, an average of about 1 per cent a year after accounting for inflation. Which doesn’t sound too bad except that we all know from experience that NHS spending always grows more quickly than that, and that 1 per cent needs to accommodate all sorts of other promises, like increasing schools and defence spending and so on.

If all those bits of government are going to consume quite a lot of that extra money (far more than a 1 per cent increase, certainly) then other bits of government won’t get as much. In fact, the IFS reckons those other bits of government – from the Home Office to the legal system – will face annual cuts of 3.5 per cent. In other words, it’s austerity all over again.

But here’s the genius thing (for the politicians, at least). While they have to set a baseline, to make all their other sums add up, the dysfunctional nature of the way government sets its spending budgets means it only has to fill in the small print about which department gets what when it does a spending review. And that spending review isn’t due until after the election.

The upshot is all the parties can pretend they’ve signed up to the baseline even when it’s patently obvious that more money will be needed for those unprotected departments (or else it’s a return to austerity).

So yes, the IFS is right: the numbers in each manifesto, including Labour’s, are massively overshadowed by this other bigger conspiracy of silence.

But I would argue that actually the conspiracy of silence goes even deeper. Because it’s not just fiscal baselines we’re not talking about enough. Consider five other issues none of the major parties is confronting (when I say major parties, in this case I’m talking about the Conservative, Labour and Lib Dem manifestos – to some extent the Green and Reform manifestos are somewhat less guilty of these particular sins, even if they commit others).

Taxes going up

First, for all their promises not to raise any of the major tax rates (something Labour, the Conservatives and Lib Dems have all committed to) the reality is taxes are going up. We will all be paying more in taxes by the end of the parliament compared with today.

Indeed, we’ll all be paying more income tax. Except that we’ll be paying more of it because we’ll be paying tax on more of our income – that’s the inexorable logic of freezing the thresholds at which you start paying certain rates of tax (which is what this government has done – and none of the other parties say they’ll reverse).

Second, the main parties might say they believe in different things, but they all seem to believe in one particular offbeat religion: the magic tax avoidance money tree. All three of these manifestos assume they will make enormous sums – more, actually, than from any single other money-raising measure – from tightening up tax avoidance rules.

While it’s perfectly plausible that you could raise at least some money from clamping down on tax avoidance, it’s hardly a slam-dunk. That this is the centrepiece of each party’s money-raising efforts says a lot. And, another thing that’s often glossed over: raising more money this way will also raise the tax burden.

Third is another thing all the parties agree on and are desperate not to question: the fiscal rules. The government has a set of rules requiring it to keep borrowing and (more importantly given where the numbers are right now) total debt down to a certain level.

But here’s the thing. These rules are not god-given. They are not necessarily even all that good. The debt rule is utterly gameable. It hasn’t stopped the Conservatives raising the national debt to the highest level in decades. And it’s not altogether clear the particular measure of debt being used (net debt excluding Bank of England interventions) is even the right one.

Which raises another micro-conspiracy. Of all the parties at this election, the only one talking about whether the Bank of England should really be paying large sums in interest to banks as it winds up its quantitative easing programme is the Reform Party. This policy, first posited by a left-wing thinktank (the New Economics Foundation) is something many economists are discussing. It’s something the Labour Party will quite plausibly carry out to raise some extra money if it gets elected. But no one wants to discuss it. Odd.

Brexit impact

Anyway, the fourth issue everyone seems to have agreed not to discuss is, you’ve guessed it, Brexit. While the 2019 election was all about Brexit, this one, by contrast, has barely featured the B word. Perhaps you’re relieved. For a lot of people we’ve talked so much about Brexit over the past decade or so that, frankly, we need a bit of a break. That’s certainly what the main parties seem to have concluded.

But while the impact of leaving the European Union is often overstated (no, it’s not responsible for every one of our economic problems) it’s far from irrelevant to our economic plight. And where we go with our economic neighbours is a non-trivial issue in the future.

Anyway, this brings us to the fifth and final thing no one is talking about. The fact that pretty much all the guff spouted on the campaign trail is completely dwarfed by bigger international issues they seem reluctant or ill-equipped to discuss. Take the example of China and electric cars.

Just recently, both the US and European Union have announced large tariffs on the import of Chinese EVs. Now, in America’s case those tariffs are primarily performative (the country imports only a tiny quantity of Chinese EVs). But in Europe‘s case Chinese EVs are a very substantial part of the market – same for the UK.

Raising the question: what is the UK going to do? You could make a strong case for saying Britain should be emulating the EU and US, in an effort to protect the domestic car market. After all, failing to impose tariffs will mean this country will have a tidal wave of cars coming from China (especially since they can no longer go to the rest of the continent without facing tariffs) which will make it even harder for domestic carmakers to compete. And they’re already struggling to compete.

By the same token, imposing tariffs will mean the cost of those cheap Chinese-made cars (think: MGs, most Teslas and all those newfangled BYDs and so on) will go up. A lot. Is this really the right moment to impose those extra costs on consumers.

In short, this is quite a big issue. Yet it hasn’t come up as a big issue in this campaign. Which is madness. But then you could say the same thing about, say, the broader race for minerals, about net zero policy more widely and about how we’re going to go about tightening up sanctions on Russia to make them more effective.

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Parochial election

Elections are always parochial but given the scale of these big, international issues (and there are many more), this one feels especially parochial.

So in short: yes, there have been lots of gaps. Enormous gaps. The “conspiracy of silence” goes way, way beyond the stuff the IFS has talked about.

But ’twas ever thus.

Think back to the last time a political party actually confronted some long-standing issues no one wanted to talk about in their manifesto. I’m talking about the 2017 Conservative manifesto, which pledged to resolve the mess of social care in this country, once and for all.

It sought to confront a big social issue, intergenerational inequality, in so doing ensuring younger people wouldn’t have to subsidise the elderly.

The manifesto was an absolute, abject, electoral disaster. It was largely responsible for Theresa May‘s slide in the polls from a 20 point lead to a hung parliament.

And while most people don’t talk about that manifesto anymore, make no mistake: today’s political strategists won’t forget it in a hurry. Hence why this year’s campaign and this year’s major manifestos are so thin.

Elections are rarely won on policy proposals. But they are sometimes lost on them.

UK

Liverpool fan says his baby was flung 15ft in his pram and his partner run over during trophy parade

Published

2 hours ago

May 28, 2025

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Liverpool fan says his baby was flung 15ft in his pram and his partner run over during trophy parade

A father has told Sky News how his partner was driven over, and his baby son was flung 15ft in his pram, after they were hit by a vehicle during the Liverpool parade collision.

Daniel Everson, 36, had been with Sheree Aldridge and their five-month-old baby, Teddy, at Liverpool FC’s victory parade on Monday.

“The best day of my life turned into worst”, said Daniel, a lifelong fan of ‘The Reds’.

Daniel described the moment the car came towards him and his family.

“I tried to hold on to the front of the car and try and stop it, push it, do whatever I could [to stop it] from hitting my partner and my baby.

“Me and my partner were flat on the roof, on the bonnet… we were just both trying to hold on for dear life with Ted next to us.

“And my partner went under the wheels of the car, of the front of the car, and it rolled over her leg, and I just bounced off to the side, but my boy and his pram got bounced totally in the opposite direction – about 15ft down the road.

“As soon as that happened, I just started screaming for my partner, and I found her and I asked where Teddy was, and she didn’t know… and I found him and he was okay, thank God.

“He was in the road, in his pram, on his back, and I grabbed him. I chucked the pushchair to the side and I ran up to some paramedics with him.”

Daniel, from Telford, said he felt like he was in “hell” as he rushed back to find Sheree.

“I had to carry her up the road with four police officers holding her while she was screaming and crying. At that point, I didn’t know what was wrong with her, but I could see the injuries to her leg,” he explained.

Sheree, 36, is recovering at Aintree University Hospital after suffering muscle tissue damage. Daniel has been allowed to return home with Teddy after he was assessed at Alder Hey Children’s Hospital.

“I feel a lot of emotions right now. Upset, angry, traumatised. A lot of unanswered questions that need to be answered.

“To me, it just wasn’t handled properly – the situation with the car getting that far into the crowd, in my opinion, he should not have got anywhere near us.”

Merseyside Police have now been given more time to question a 53-year-old arrested after a car struck a crowd at Liverpool FC’s victory parade on Monday.

The suspect, who police have described as a white British man from the local area, is being held on suspicion of attempted murder, dangerous driving, and drug driving.

Police have said the extra time they have been given to question the suspect runs into Thursday.

UK

Andrew Tate and his brother Tristan charged with rape in the UK

Published

7 hours ago

May 28, 2025

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Andrew Tate and his brother Tristan charged with rape in the UK

Andrew Tate and his brother Tristan Tate have been charged with rape and other offences in the UK.

Andrew Tate, 38, faces 10 charges, including rape, actual bodily harm, human trafficking and controlling prostitution for gain, relating to three women.

His brother Tristan Tate, 36, faces 11 charges relating to one woman – including rape, actual bodily harm and human trafficking.

The charges were authorised in January 2024, but full details have only been released now.

Bedfordshire Police issued an international arrest warrant for the brothers over allegations, which they “unequivocally deny”, said to have occurred between 2012 and 2015.

The Tate brothers are facing separate allegations of trafficking minors, sexual intercourse with a minor and money laundering in Romania.

They are also accused of human trafficking and forming a criminal gang to sexually exploit women in a different case, which has been sent back to prosecutors.

They are due to be extradited to the UK following the conclusion of proceedings in Romania.

A Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) spokesperson said: “We can confirm that we have authorised charges against Andrew and Tristan Tate for offences including rape, human trafficking, controlling prostitution and actual bodily harm against three women.

“These charging decisions followed receipt of a file of evidence from Bedfordshire Police.

“A European Arrest Warrant was issued in England in 2024, and as a result the Romanian courts ordered the extradition to the UK of Andrew and Tristan Tate.”

The spokesperson added: “However, the domestic criminal matters in Romania must be settled first.

“The Crown Prosecution Service reminds everyone that criminal proceedings are active, and the defendants have the right to a fair trial.

“It is extremely important that there be no reporting, commentary or sharing of information online which could in any way prejudice these proceedings.”

Representatives for Andrew Tate have been contacted by Sky News for comment.

Lawyer Matt Jury, of McCue Jury & Partners, representing several alleged British victims of Andrew Tate, said: “We welcome the clarity from the Crown Prosecution Service that our authorities are working to ensure the Tates face justice here in the UK – they cannot be allowed to escape extradition.

“At the same time, we ask once more that CPS admit its mistake in failing to prosecute Tate when he lived in the UK and finally charge him for the rape and assault of the other three women, our clients, who originally filed criminal complaints against him as long ago as 2014 but were failed by the system.

“They deserve justice, too.”

The allegations were subject to a police investigation, which was closed in 2019.

UK

Police given more time to question Liverpool parade collision suspect

Published

8 hours ago

May 28, 2025

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Police given more time to question Liverpool parade collision suspect

Merseyside Police has been given more time to question a 53-year-old man arrested over the Liverpool parade collision.

The suspect is being held on suspicion of attempted murder, dangerous driving and drug driving after a car was driven into a crowd at Liverpool FC’s victory parade on Monday.

Police have said the extra time they have been given to question the suspect runs into Thursday.

The force believes the vehicle which struck pedestrians on Water Street had followed an ambulance crew that was attending to someone suffering a heart attack, after a road block was temporarily lifted.

Earlier, new footage emerged showing a car being driven into the crowd as panicked fans watched in horror and tried to avoid being hit.

The CCTV footage showed supporters attempting to move out of the way as the vehicle ploughed into supporters.

Cries could be heard from the crowd – before police and members of the public chased after the car.

In an update on Wednesday, Merseyside Police said it was in contact with 79 people who were injured in the crash – an increase on the 65 people who were confirmed injured in the force’s previous update.

Seven people remain in hospital in a stable condition following the collision, the force added.

Detective Superintendent Rachel Wilson said: “I’m pleased to say that the number of people in hospital is reducing as they continue to recover from the awful incident.

“We continue to support those still receiving treatment and as part of our ongoing enquiries we are identifying more people who were injured.

“I want to reassure the public of Merseyside that detectives are making significant progress as we seek to establish the full circumstances that led to what happened.”

DS Wilson said that “extensive CCTV enquiries” were being carried out across Liverpool to “establish the movements of the car, a Ford Galaxy, before the incident took place”.

She added: “We have already had an incredible response from many of those who were there on the day, and I thank them for their co-operation with our investigation.

“I would encourage anyone who has not yet contacted police who may have information on this incident to do so.

“An extensive investigation into the precise circumstances of the incident is ongoing, and we continue to ask people not to speculate on the circumstances surrounding the incident and refrain from sharing distressing content online.”

It comes after Water Street was reopened to vehicles and pedestrians on Wednesday after the police cordon was lifted.

Street cleaning teams worked overnight to clear the road, which had been littered with bottles, cans and football scarves and flags.

One remaining Liverpool flag was removed from the top of a set of traffic lights by a worker wearing hi-vis.

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On Tuesday night, Liverpool manager Arne Slot decided not to attend the League Managers Association’s annual awards ceremony “in solidarity with those affected by the incident on Monday”.

Meanwhile, speaking at an awards ceremony on Tuesday, former Liverpool boss Jurgen Klopp said the collision on Water Street “showed the two faces of life”.

He said: “The most beautiful face for a long, long time: the parade was incredible, the mood was incredible and from one second to another everything changed and we learned again there are more serious things in the world than football.

“Thoughts and prayers go to the injured people and their families as well.

“It should have been one of the greatest days in the history of the city, after a long, long time, because we didn’t have the opportunity to do it last time. I don’t know how and why it happened but we know what happened and that’s very bad.”