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The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) says there’s a conspiracy of silence this election – that all of the major political parties aren’t being honest enough about their fiscal plans this election.

And they have a point. Most obviously (and this is the main thing the IFS is complaining about) none of the major manifestos – from Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the Conservative parties – have been clear about how they will fill an impending black hole in the government’s spending plans.

No need to go into all the gritty details, but the overarching point is that all government spending plans include some broad assumptions about how much spending (and for that matter, taxes and economic growth) will grow in the coming years. Economists call this the “baseline”.

But there’s a problem with this baseline: it assumes quite a slow increase in overall government spending in the next four years, an average of about 1 per cent a year after accounting for inflation. Which doesn’t sound too bad except that we all know from experience that NHS spending always grows more quickly than that, and that 1 per cent needs to accommodate all sorts of other promises, like increasing schools and defence spending and so on.

Ambulance outside a hospital Accident and Emergency department.
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NHS spending grows more quickly than the ‘baseline’

If all those bits of government are going to consume quite a lot of that extra money (far more than a 1 per cent increase, certainly) then other bits of government won’t get as much. In fact, the IFS reckons those other bits of government – from the Home Office to the legal system – will face annual cuts of 3.5 per cent. In other words, it’s austerity all over again.

But here’s the genius thing (for the politicians, at least). While they have to set a baseline, to make all their other sums add up, the dysfunctional nature of the way government sets its spending budgets means it only has to fill in the small print about which department gets what when it does a spending review. And that spending review isn’t due until after the election.

The upshot is all the parties can pretend they’ve signed up to the baseline even when it’s patently obvious that more money will be needed for those unprotected departments (or else it’s a return to austerity).

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So yes, the IFS is right: the numbers in each manifesto, including Labour’s, are massively overshadowed by this other bigger conspiracy of silence.

But I would argue that actually the conspiracy of silence goes even deeper. Because it’s not just fiscal baselines we’re not talking about enough. Consider five other issues none of the major parties is confronting (when I say major parties, in this case I’m talking about the Conservative, Labour and Lib Dem manifestos – to some extent the Green and Reform manifestos are somewhat less guilty of these particular sins, even if they commit others).

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Taxes going up

First, for all their promises not to raise any of the major tax rates (something Labour, the Conservatives and Lib Dems have all committed to) the reality is taxes are going up. We will all be paying more in taxes by the end of the parliament compared with today.

Indeed, we’ll all be paying more income tax. Except that we’ll be paying more of it because we’ll be paying tax on more of our income – that’s the inexorable logic of freezing the thresholds at which you start paying certain rates of tax (which is what this government has done – and none of the other parties say they’ll reverse).

Second, the main parties might say they believe in different things, but they all seem to believe in one particular offbeat religion: the magic tax avoidance money tree. All three of these manifestos assume they will make enormous sums – more, actually, than from any single other money-raising measure – from tightening up tax avoidance rules.

While it’s perfectly plausible that you could raise at least some money from clamping down on tax avoidance, it’s hardly a slam-dunk. That this is the centrepiece of each party’s money-raising efforts says a lot. And, another thing that’s often glossed over: raising more money this way will also raise the tax burden.

The Bank of England in the City of London
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Should the Bank of England be paying large sums in interest to banks? File pic: AP

Third is another thing all the parties agree on and are desperate not to question: the fiscal rules. The government has a set of rules requiring it to keep borrowing and (more importantly given where the numbers are right now) total debt down to a certain level.

But here’s the thing. These rules are not god-given. They are not necessarily even all that good. The debt rule is utterly gameable. It hasn’t stopped the Conservatives raising the national debt to the highest level in decades. And it’s not altogether clear the particular measure of debt being used (net debt excluding Bank of England interventions) is even the right one.

Which raises another micro-conspiracy. Of all the parties at this election, the only one talking about whether the Bank of England should really be paying large sums in interest to banks as it winds up its quantitative easing programme is the Reform Party. This policy, first posited by a left-wing thinktank (the New Economics Foundation) is something many economists are discussing. It’s something the Labour Party will quite plausibly carry out to raise some extra money if it gets elected. But no one wants to discuss it. Odd.

Brexit impact

Anyway, the fourth issue everyone seems to have agreed not to discuss is, you’ve guessed it, Brexit. While the 2019 election was all about Brexit, this one, by contrast, has barely featured the B word. Perhaps you’re relieved. For a lot of people we’ve talked so much about Brexit over the past decade or so that, frankly, we need a bit of a break. That’s certainly what the main parties seem to have concluded.

But while the impact of leaving the European Union is often overstated (no, it’s not responsible for every one of our economic problems) it’s far from irrelevant to our economic plight. And where we go with our economic neighbours is a non-trivial issue in the future.

Anyway, this brings us to the fifth and final thing no one is talking about. The fact that pretty much all the guff spouted on the campaign trail is completely dwarfed by bigger international issues they seem reluctant or ill-equipped to discuss. Take the example of China and electric cars.

File pic: Victoria Jones/PA
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Brexit has barely featured in the election. File pic: Victoria Jones/PA

Just recently, both the US and European Union have announced large tariffs on the import of Chinese EVs. Now, in America’s case those tariffs are primarily performative (the country imports only a tiny quantity of Chinese EVs). But in Europe‘s case Chinese EVs are a very substantial part of the market – same for the UK.

Raising the question: what is the UK going to do? You could make a strong case for saying Britain should be emulating the EU and US, in an effort to protect the domestic car market. After all, failing to impose tariffs will mean this country will have a tidal wave of cars coming from China (especially since they can no longer go to the rest of the continent without facing tariffs) which will make it even harder for domestic carmakers to compete. And they’re already struggling to compete.

By the same token, imposing tariffs will mean the cost of those cheap Chinese-made cars (think: MGs, most Teslas and all those newfangled BYDs and so on) will go up. A lot. Is this really the right moment to impose those extra costs on consumers.

In short, this is quite a big issue. Yet it hasn’t come up as a big issue in this campaign. Which is madness. But then you could say the same thing about, say, the broader race for minerals, about net zero policy more widely and about how we’re going to go about tightening up sanctions on Russia to make them more effective.

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Parochial election

Elections are always parochial but given the scale of these big, international issues (and there are many more), this one feels especially parochial.

So in short: yes, there have been lots of gaps. Enormous gaps. The “conspiracy of silence” goes way, way beyond the stuff the IFS has talked about.

But ’twas ever thus.

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Think back to the last time a political party actually confronted some long-standing issues no one wanted to talk about in their manifesto. I’m talking about the 2017 Conservative manifesto, which pledged to resolve the mess of social care in this country, once and for all.

It sought to confront a big social issue, intergenerational inequality, in so doing ensuring younger people wouldn’t have to subsidise the elderly.

The manifesto was an absolute, abject, electoral disaster. It was largely responsible for Theresa May‘s slide in the polls from a 20 point lead to a hung parliament.

And while most people don’t talk about that manifesto anymore, make no mistake: today’s political strategists won’t forget it in a hurry. Hence why this year’s campaign and this year’s major manifestos are so thin.

Elections are rarely won on policy proposals. But they are sometimes lost on them.

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Boris Johnson puts up united front with Rishi Sunak to warn against ‘disaster’ of Labour government

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Boris Johnson puts up united front with Rishi Sunak to warn against 'disaster' of Labour government

Boris Johnson has made his first public appearance in the Conservative election campaign to warn voters against electing a Labour government on 4 July.

The former prime minister told an audience in central London that a potential Labour government led by Sir Keir Starmer would “destroy so much of what we have achieved”.

Mr Johnson, who was rumoured to make an appearance at some point in the campaign, spoke before Rishi Sunak at an event designed to rally supporters in the final hours before polling day.

Alluding to their past disagreements as prime minister and chancellor, Mr Johnson said: “Whatever our differences they are trivial to the disaster we may face.”

He said Westminster was about to go “diametrically in the opposite direction” to the progress the country had achieved over COVID and economic growth.

“None of us can sit back as a Labour government prepares to use a sledgehammer majority to destroy so much of what we have achieved, what you have achieved,” he said.

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Mr Johnson, who won the largest Conservative majority in 2019 since the years of Margaret Thatcher, repeated the warnings that have been made by the Tories continuously throughout the campaign that Sir Keir was on course for a “supermajority” that could hamper democratic accountability.

“Is it not therefore the height of insanity, if these polls are right, that we are about to give Labour a supermajority which they will use to make us nothing but the punk of Brussels, taking EU law by dictation with no say on how that law is made?” he asked.

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He accused Labour of “barely” being able to conceal their agenda of tax rises and of being “so complacent”.

“Poor old Starmer is so terrified of disobeying left wing dogma that he’s reluctant to explain the difference between a man and a woman, and he just he just sits there with his mouth opening and shutting like a stunned mullet,” he went on.

“Do we want this kind of madness? Do we want ever higher taxes? Do we want more wokery imposed on our schools? And yet this is coming now.”

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Mr Johnson’s surprise appearance came after a poll by Survation predicted Labour would win a majority of 318 seats, surpassing the 179 achieved by Sir Tony Blair in 1997.

The pollster said Sir Keir would win 484 seats out of the total of 650, while the Tories would crash to 64 seats – just three more than the Liberal Democrats.

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Mr Sunak thanked his predecessor for his support, adding: “Boris was right to say now is the time for all Conservatives to come together to deny Labour that super majority that Keir Starmer craves.

“We have 48 hours to save Britain from the danger of a Labour government.”

Liberal Democrat Deputy Leader Daisy Cooper said Mr Johnson’s appearance was an “insult to everyone who made heartbreaking sacrifices during the pandemic”.

“Rishi Sunak has reached a desperate new low, turning to a man who discredited the office of prime minister and lied to the country time after time.

“It is time to boot out this tired and sleaze-ridden Conservative party, and elect Liberal Democrat MPs who will stand up for their communities.”

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Judge signs off on expedited schedule for Consensys suit against SEC

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Judge signs off on expedited schedule for Consensys suit against SEC

While Judge Reed O’Connor granted the SEC an extension to respond to Consensys’ lawsuit, he also approved a timeline for considering the case’s merits proposed by the firm.

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Robinhood is now available In Hawaii and select US territories

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Robinhood is now available In Hawaii and select US territories

The brokerage platform took advantage of Hawaii’s recent change to money transmitter licensing to expand to the non-contiguous United States.

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