General Election 2024: Five things the main parties aren’t talking about this election
The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) says there’s a conspiracy of silence this election – that all of the major political parties aren’t being honest enough about their fiscal plans this election.
And they have a point. Most obviously (and this is the main thing the IFS is complaining about) none of the major manifestos – from Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the Conservative parties – have been clear about how they will fill an impending black hole in the government’s spending plans.
No need to go into all the gritty details, but the overarching point is that all government spending plans include some broad assumptions about how much spending (and for that matter, taxes and economic growth) will grow in the coming years. Economists call this the “baseline”.
But there’s a problem with this baseline: it assumes quite a slow increase in overall government spending in the next four years, an average of about 1 per cent a year after accounting for inflation. Which doesn’t sound too bad except that we all know from experience that NHS spending always grows more quickly than that, and that 1 per cent needs to accommodate all sorts of other promises, like increasing schools and defence spending and so on.
NHS spending grows more quickly than the ‘baseline’
If all those bits of government are going to consume quite a lot of that extra money (far more than a 1 per cent increase, certainly) then other bits of government won’t get as much. In fact, the IFS reckons those other bits of government – from the Home Office to the legal system – will face annual cuts of 3.5 per cent. In other words, it’s austerity all over again.
But here’s the genius thing (for the politicians, at least). While they have to set a baseline, to make all their other sums add up, the dysfunctional nature of the way government sets its spending budgets means it only has to fill in the small print about which department gets what when it does a spending review. And that spending review isn’t due until after the election.
The upshot is all the parties can pretend they’ve signed up to the baseline even when it’s patently obvious that more money will be needed for those unprotected departments (or else it’s a return to austerity).
So yes, the IFS is right: the numbers in each manifesto, including Labour’s, are massively overshadowed by this other bigger conspiracy of silence.
But I would argue that actually the conspiracy of silence goes even deeper. Because it’s not just fiscal baselines we’re not talking about enough. Consider five other issues none of the major parties is confronting (when I say major parties, in this case I’m talking about the Conservative, Labour and Lib Dem manifestos – to some extent the Green and Reform manifestos are somewhat less guilty of these particular sins, even if they commit others).
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Taxes going up
First, for all their promises not to raise any of the major tax rates (something Labour, the Conservatives and Lib Dems have all committed to) the reality is taxes are going up. We will all be paying more in taxes by the end of the parliament compared with today.
Indeed, we’ll all be paying more income tax. Except that we’ll be paying more of it because we’ll be paying tax on more of our income – that’s the inexorable logic of freezing the thresholds at which you start paying certain rates of tax (which is what this government has done – and none of the other parties say they’ll reverse).
Second, the main parties might say they believe in different things, but they all seem to believe in one particular offbeat religion: the magic tax avoidance money tree. All three of these manifestos assume they will make enormous sums – more, actually, than from any single other money-raising measure – from tightening up tax avoidance rules.
While it’s perfectly plausible that you could raise at least some money from clamping down on tax avoidance, it’s hardly a slam-dunk. That this is the centrepiece of each party’s money-raising efforts says a lot. And, another thing that’s often glossed over: raising more money this way will also raise the tax burden.
Should the Bank of England be paying large sums in interest to banks? File pic: AP
Third is another thing all the parties agree on and are desperate not to question: the fiscal rules. The government has a set of rules requiring it to keep borrowing and (more importantly given where the numbers are right now) total debt down to a certain level.
But here’s the thing. These rules are not god-given. They are not necessarily even all that good. The debt rule is utterly gameable. It hasn’t stopped the Conservatives raising the national debt to the highest level in decades. And it’s not altogether clear the particular measure of debt being used (net debt excluding Bank of England interventions) is even the right one.
Which raises another micro-conspiracy. Of all the parties at this election, the only one talking about whether the Bank of England should really be paying large sums in interest to banks as it winds up its quantitative easing programme is the Reform Party. This policy, first posited by a left-wing thinktank (the New Economics Foundation) is something many economists are discussing. It’s something the Labour Party will quite plausibly carry out to raise some extra money if it gets elected. But no one wants to discuss it. Odd.
Brexit impact
Anyway, the fourth issue everyone seems to have agreed not to discuss is, you’ve guessed it, Brexit. While the 2019 election was all about Brexit, this one, by contrast, has barely featured the B word. Perhaps you’re relieved. For a lot of people we’ve talked so much about Brexit over the past decade or so that, frankly, we need a bit of a break. That’s certainly what the main parties seem to have concluded.
But while the impact of leaving the European Union is often overstated (no, it’s not responsible for every one of our economic problems) it’s far from irrelevant to our economic plight. And where we go with our economic neighbours is a non-trivial issue in the future.
Anyway, this brings us to the fifth and final thing no one is talking about. The fact that pretty much all the guff spouted on the campaign trail is completely dwarfed by bigger international issues they seem reluctant or ill-equipped to discuss. Take the example of China and electric cars.
Brexit has barely featured in the election. File pic: Victoria Jones/PA
Just recently, both the US and European Union have announced large tariffs on the import of Chinese EVs. Now, in America’s case those tariffs are primarily performative (the country imports only a tiny quantity of Chinese EVs). But in Europe‘s case Chinese EVs are a very substantial part of the market – same for the UK.
Raising the question: what is the UK going to do? You could make a strong case for saying Britain should be emulating the EU and US, in an effort to protect the domestic car market. After all, failing to impose tariffs will mean this country will have a tidal wave of cars coming from China (especially since they can no longer go to the rest of the continent without facing tariffs) which will make it even harder for domestic carmakers to compete. And they’re already struggling to compete.
By the same token, imposing tariffs will mean the cost of those cheap Chinese-made cars (think: MGs, most Teslas and all those newfangled BYDs and so on) will go up. A lot. Is this really the right moment to impose those extra costs on consumers.
In short, this is quite a big issue. Yet it hasn’t come up as a big issue in this campaign. Which is madness. But then you could say the same thing about, say, the broader race for minerals, about net zero policy more widely and about how we’re going to go about tightening up sanctions on Russia to make them more effective.
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Parochial election
Elections are always parochial but given the scale of these big, international issues (and there are many more), this one feels especially parochial.
So in short: yes, there have been lots of gaps. Enormous gaps. The “conspiracy of silence” goes way, way beyond the stuff the IFS has talked about.
But ’twas ever thus.
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Think back to the last time a political party actually confronted some long-standing issues no one wanted to talk about in their manifesto. I’m talking about the 2017 Conservative manifesto, which pledged to resolve the mess of social care in this country, once and for all.
It sought to confront a big social issue, intergenerational inequality, in so doing ensuring younger people wouldn’t have to subsidise the elderly.
The manifesto was an absolute, abject, electoral disaster. It was largely responsible for Theresa May‘s slide in the polls from a 20 point lead to a hung parliament.
And while most people don’t talk about that manifesto anymore, make no mistake: today’s political strategists won’t forget it in a hurry. Hence why this year’s campaign and this year’s major manifestos are so thin.
Elections are rarely won on policy proposals. But they are sometimes lost on them.
UK
Hainault sword attacker Marcus Monzo found guilty of murdering boy, 14, and three attempted murders
A man has been found guilty of murdering a 14-year-old boy with a samurai sword as he walked to school in east London.
Marcus Arduini Monzo, 37, nearly decapitated Daniel Anjorin and attacked five others during a 20-minute rampage in Hainault on 30 April last year.
Prosecutors said he skinned and deboned his pet cat Wizard before trying “to kill as many people as he could” while under the influence of cannabis.
Monzo, a Spanish-Brazilian national from Newham in east London, admitted two charges of possessing an offensive weapon relating to two swords, which he said he bought for display purposes.
He claimed he had no memory of carrying out the attacks denied Daniel’s murder along with four charges of attempted murder, wounding with intent, aggravated burglary and possession of a bladed article.
He was cleared of one count of attempted murder – instead found guilty of wounding with intent to cause grievous bodily harm – and convicted of all other charges following a trial at the Old Bailey.
Daniel Anjorin, 14, died in April last year. Pic: Metropolitan Police
The court heard Monzo was a “talented martial artist” and the jury was shown footage of him unboxing a samurai sword on 4 April last year.
In the four-minute video clip, he calls the weapon “freaking sexy” as he lunges towards the camera and makes different moves.
Marcus Monzo with a samurai sword in footage shown during the trial
The court was also shown CCTV footage from the morning of 30 April, with audible screams in one clip as Monzo drove his grey Ford Transit van at speed into pedestrian Donato Iwule.
Mr Iwule told jurors: “I thought I was dying” and “I saw blood coming out of my neck”, after he was struck with a sword before running away.
Witnesses described how Monzo was running around “like a maniac” and “looked a bit mad, like there was nothing there”.
Daniel, who had left home at around 7am wearing headphones and school sports clothes, suffered “a near-decapitation” when Monzo attacked him with the weapon from behind, prosecutor Tom Little KC told the jury.
Monzo was tasered by police. Pic: PA
PC Yasmin Mechem-Whitfield chased the armed attacker through alleyways before Monzo struck her three times with the 60cm blade using “extreme force”, the court heard.
He then entered a nearby house through the back door and walked upstairs before attacking sleeping couple Sindy Arias and Henry De Los Rios Polania, who he asked: “Do you believe in God?”
Mr Little said their lives were only spared because their four-year-old daughter, who was sleeping nearby, woke up and started to cry.
Monzo, who had been cornered by police, also struck Inspector Moloy Campbell once with the sword before he was finally disarmed and arrested after trying to climb onto a garage to escape.
Doorbell footage shows the moment officers shout: “Don’t move, don’t f****** move”, after he was brought to the ground by three separate taser discharges.
Monzo told police he had “many personalities”, including a “professional assassin”, and compared the events to The Hunger Games film franchise.
He wept while giving evidence as he said he did not intend to harm anybody and told jurors he had no memory of what happened.
He told how he had previously used psychedelic drugs and smoked cannabis “three or four times a week” before the attack, but denied doing so on the day.
Prosecutors said he likely suffered from a psychotic disorder with “schizophrenic-like symptoms”, including “delusional beliefs” that both he and his family were in “mortal danger”.
But Mr Little said his psychotic state was self-induced and did not meet the threshold for diminished responsibility.
Thousands of Eurostar passengers have been suffering severe delays and last-minute cancellations due to cable theft – a day after two track fatalities caused disruption.
The latest delays come after 600 metres of copper cables were stolen overnight in the city of Lille in northern France, according to reports in the country.
Eurostar said this was forcing it to run services on alternative routes, causing extended journey times.
The company said in a statement that “full repairs are now completed” and trains resumed as normal as of 1pm UK time.
It added that “some delays can still be expected until the end of the day”.
The statement continued: “Customers have been contacted directly with updates and available options, and Eurostar is advising those due to travel today to postpone their journey with free exchanges and refunds available.
“We’re very sorry for the continued disruption and the impact this is having on our customers. Our teams are working hard to support customers in the stations.”
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Eurostar said services between Brussels/Paris and London had been experiencing disruption since the beginning of the day.
Its services were already disrupted because many trains and staff members were out of position after two fatalities on rail lines in France on Tuesday.
At least five services on its London-Paris route were cancelled on Wednesday, and seven others were delayed by around an hour.
Passengers at St Pancras International station in London. Pic: PA
The operator said it was handing out water to passengers on delayed trains, and it has teams at stations to provide assistance.
Affected passengers are able to change their travel plans free of charge or request a full refund.
Images show large crowds of stranded passengers at St Pancras International station in London today.
In a post on X, Eurostar said the cable theft meant trains were likely to be “subject to severe delays and last-minute cancellations”, adding: “We advise you to cancel or postpone your trip.”
Nigel Hardman, 57, took an Avanti West Coast train from Blackpool to London Euston at 5.30am, only for him and his family to find out en route that their Eurostar trip to Paris had been cancelled.
The delays have meant they have decided to board a train to Brussels instead of Paris, meaning they have lost out on about £700 on hotel costs and connecting trains.
Delayed passengers at St Pancras. Pic: PA
Mr Hardman, a plumber from Blackpool, said: “There’s no availability on trains to Paris – they’re all booked up. We’re going to go to Brussels and stay there, then shoot down to Strasbourg, where we were supposed to be. I only found out on an email at about 3.30am this morning, why couldn’t they have told us last night?
“And when we got here, we were in the queue for an hour before we found out the other trains to Paris were all booked up. Everyone was useless until one really organised guy was telling it to us straight. It’s going to cost us about £700 extra which is really frustrating. And it’s just a nightmare start to our trip.”
Eurostar passenger Elizabeth Romijn, 75, a yoga teacher from the Netherlands said she is used to issues with the train service, but described Wednesday’s disruption as “very chaotic”.
She was planning to make her way home, catching the train to Brussels today after visiting friends in Guildford, Sussex and has decided to wait in the station to see if she can board a train.
Ms Romijn said: “My plan is to just wait. Maybe I should go and be more proactive and go to ask one of the staff but nobody seems to know anything. And it’s quite horrible long queues.
“On the email they said, don’t go, go cancel your travel or take a voucher or something – but I thought I’m going to travel anyway. I’m just going to wait and if it’s cancelled, then I go back to Guildford where I’ve been visiting my friends.”
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Passengers at St Pancras International station .
Pic: PA
Eurostar had said in a statement following the deaths on Tuesday: “We are deeply sorry to confirm that there were two separate fatalities on the LGV Nord high-speed line between Lille and Paris yesterday.
“Our thoughts are with the families and friends of those who lost their lives.
“The line was closed for much of the afternoon and evening, resulting in significant disruption to Eurostar services, including cancellations on routes to and from Paris.
“Trains on the London-Brussels-Amsterdam route continued to run with delays.
“This morning, disruption continues due to the knock-on impact of displaced trains and crew.
“Further to this, services have been further affected by an incident of cable theft on the same line near Lille.”
Angela Rayner has refused to repeat Rachel Reeves’ pledge that taxes will not be increased at the next budget.
Standing in for Sir Keir Starmer at PMQs, the deputy prime minister was pressed on warnings from economists that tax rises are looking increasingly inevitable in the autumn to fund the chancellor’s spending plans.
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The Tories want a commitment that this will not be the case in order to support the government’s welfare bill, which is under threat from a growing and significant rebellion of Labour MPs.
Shadow chancellor Mel stride, standing in for Tory leader Kemi Badenoch, said even if the planned benefit cuts go through, “almost every respected economist now says tax rises are all but inevitable in the autumn”.
He said Ms Reeves promised after her last budget that this will not be the case and asked Ms Rayner to give “certainty” to businesses and repeat that pledge.
Ms Rayner said the question was “a bit rich” given the Tories raised taxes to record highs before the last election, adding: “I take no lectures”.
Mr Stride pressed her on analysis from the Institute of Fiscal Studies (IFS) that local authorities will have to raise council tax to the maximum level allowed to pay for local services.
Angela Rayner
He said: “The IFS says that the spending review will mean the biggest council tax increases in a generation.
“A £7bn tax rise and yet the chancellor and the prime minister have repeatedly claimed that the government will not raise taxes on working people. So can I ask… why doesn’t she think the council tax is paid by working people?”
Ms Rayner again attacked the Tories’ record, saying he had “absolute nerve” as council tax “rose every single year under that government”.
She said Labour was “delivering money for local government, when they had austerity, put taxes up and ruined the British economy”.
Ms Reeves unveiled her spending review earlier this month, which outlined how much day-to-day funding government departments will get over the next three years, along with capital spending for longer-term projects.
The chancellor has insisted her plans are fully funded, but Paul Johnson, director of the IFS, has said she has left herself such little headroom that “any move in the wrong direction” for the economy would “almost certainly spark more tax rises”.
Any tax hikes would likely spark a backlash given Ms Reeves’ said last November that there would be no more tax hikes during this government’s term, following her decision to raise employer National Insurance in the autumn budget.
The government is facing further trouble as a key part of the spending review was a package of reforms aimed at shaving £5bn off the welfare budget by 2030.
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Sky’s Tamara Cohen explains.
However, an unprecedented rebellion of over 100 MPs is threatening that legislation, which is due to be voted on next Tuesday.
Ms Rayner today insisted the vote will go ahead.
She said: “I’ll tell the right honourable member why we’re pressing ahead with our reforms.
“That is because we’re investing £1 billion into tailored employment support, a right to try to help more people back into work and ending reassessments for the most severely disabled who will never be able to work.
“We won’t walk away and stand by and abandon millions of people trapped in the failing system left behind by him and his colleagues.”
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