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They came in their droves: thousands of Reform supporters poured into a vast hall in a Birmingham conference centre on Sunday to hear Nigel Farage.

His backers brought with them Union Jacks, and brandished Reform placards. There were even one or two red baseball caps emblazoned with the slogan “Make Britain Great Again”, which seemed fitting for an event that felt quite Trumpian in style and tone.

Mr Farage came onto the stage to pounding music, smoke machines, fireworks, and a sea of “it’s time for Reform” placards to a 5,000-strong crowd with a speech that spoke about how Britain was broken and it was time for Reform.

He said his party would be the “leading voice of opposition” as he attacked ‘the establishment’ in all its guises, from the Conservative Party to Labour, the BBC, and Channel 4 to the Governor of the Bank of England.

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While detractors describe Mr Farage’s platform as a type of dog-whistle politics that does little but to stoke grievances and division, there is an audience for him and his policies that politicians in larger parties should ignore at their peril.

When I spoke to many people in the hall afterwards, they were overwhelmingly former Conservative voters disillusioned with their old party.

One woman, who had travelled over from Hull for the rally told me she thought there were a lot of “silent people who may be frightened to say they are voting Reform”.

“I think it’s going to be shock,” she said.

An attendee wearing a Nigel Farage mask ahead of the Reform UK party's rally.
Pic: Reuters
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The crowd in Birmingham. Pic: Reuters

2024 is the election for ‘the other parties’

The rise of the ‘other’ parties is a clear theme of this election campaign as the Liberal Democrats, who won just 11 seats back in 2019, now eye getting back to the levels of seats they enjoyed – in the 1940s or 1950s – before it was wiped out in 2015 on the back of the coalition years.

Nigel Farage’s Reform, meanwhile, is on 16.2% in our Sky News poll tracker, just behind the Tories on 20%.

Earlier this month, the Conservatives fell behind Reform UK for the first time in a national poll, leaving the Tories gripped by panic and in despair.

Mr Farage likes to make the argument that Labour could be heading to a landslide on a lower voter share.

Recent analysis in the Financial Times suggested Labour could win a record 450 seats – about 70% – on just 41% of the votes, lower than the figure Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour achieved in 2017, while the Lib Dems could pick up 50 seats with a lower share of the vote than Reform with just a few seats at best. If it turns out anything like this, prepare for plenty of noise from Mr Farage.

Whether undecided voters or those leaning to Reform stick with them on Thursday is a big unknown of this election. Tories are nervous, knowing that big Reform votes piling up in their constituencies could cost them their seat.

In 2019, the majority of Conservatives did not have a threat from the right, as the Brexit Party stood down candidates with a Brexit-backing Conservative candidate. They stood but 275 or 632 seats.

This time around, Reform is everywhere and no one feels safe: one poll put James Cleverly’s Braintree constituency, supposedly the 19th safest Conservative seat, on a knife edge as Reform clocks up an estimated 22% vote share in his Essex constituency.

Reform UK Party Leader Nigel Farage delivers a speech during a rally at the NEC in Birmingham
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Pic: Reuters

Tories in all-out war

The Conservatives, who began this campaign trying not to get into a fight with Mr Farage (perhaps for fear of further alienating their traditional voters) are now at all-out war as they try to salvage as many seats as they can.

On Sunday the party said if “just 130,000 voters currently considering a vote for Reform or the Lib Dems voted Conservative, it would be enough to stop Labour’s supermajority”.

The prime minister, meanwhile, has become increasingly vocal in his criticisms of Reform and Mr Farage as the party looks for a way to pull voters back.

Mr Sunak has been vocal in his criticism of Mr Farage as a “Putin appeaser” after the Reform leader suggested Ukraine enter peace talks – something which Ukraine has emphatically ruled out unless Russia retreats from its territory.

The prime minister also spoke of his “anger and hurt” over revelations – contested by Reform – in a Channel 4 undercover report of a Reform canvasser calling Mr Sunak a “f****** P***”.

This, combined with a Reform organiser making homophobic remarks and candidates being suspended for racist, antisemitic and sexist views has caused difficulties for Mr Farage in recent days.

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Sunak ‘hurt’ over Reform race row

Tensions around Farage starting to show

In our interview in Birmingham on Sunday, some of those tensions were beginning to show.

For a start, the politician who had appeared with right-wing Tories such as potential future leader Dame Priti Patel at the Conservative Party conference last October, and openly toyed about returning to the fold, now ruled out any sort of tie-up.

Having spoken but a month ago about a reverse takeover of the Tories and refusing to rule out one day rejoining the party, on Sunday he was clear he would not rejoin, and wanted nothing to do with the Conservatives.

Nigel Farage.
Pic: Reuters
Image:
Pic: Reuters

It comes after a clutch of senior figures, including Dame Priti, indicated that Mr Farage would now not be welcomed back into the party in the wake of the backlash over his claim the West provoked Russia to invade Ukraine and the racism row engulfing Reform.

He equally was more equivocal than he had been about Andrew Tate in the past, making it clear to me that he “disavowed’ him, and was also highly critical of Reform events organiser George James who made homophobic remarks, saying he was “furious” when he saw the footage (also in the Channel 4 report) of Mr James describing the Pride flag as “degenerate” and criticising the police for displaying the flag.

“They should be out catching the n***** not promoting the f******”,” he said in the report.

Mr Farage said Mr James was “crass, drunken, rude and wrong” and told me he had been asked to remove his membership. But he also said he was “down a few drinks” explaining: “We could all say silly things when we’re a bit drunk.”

When I asked him if people really say things like this when they are drunk, Mr Farage said: “People say all sorts of things when they’re drunk and often don’t remember. But it was awful.”

So awful that one Reform candidate announced on Sunday evening they were standing down and would instead back their local Conservative in the constituency of Erewash.

The question for Reform is whether their potential voters, looking at some of the controversy surrounding the party, decide it’s not for them after all.

What is absolutely clear is Reform’s performance will help determine that of the Conservatives on Thursday night as the election results come in.

If he’s successful, Mr Farage will be heading for parliament, not only giving him a bigger national platform but a democratic mandate. That spells trouble for a Conservative party already in turmoil.

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Manhunt for Epping hotel asylum seeker, jailed for sexually assaulting girl, after accidental release

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Manhunt for Epping hotel asylum seeker, jailed for sexually assaulting girl, after accidental release

A manhunt has been launched for an accidentally released asylum seeker who was jailed for 12 months earlier this year after he sexually assaulted a 14-year-old girl and a woman in Epping.

Hadush Gerberslasie Kebatu had been staying at The Bell Hotel in the Essex town, with the incident fuelling weeks of protests at the site.

The Ethiopian national was found guilty of two counts of sexual assault, attempted sexual assault, inciting a girl to engage in sexual activity and harassment without violence earlier this month.

District judge Christopher Williams said Kebatu posed a “significant risk of reoffending” when he sentenced him to 12 months in prison in September.

Sky News understands Hadush Kebatu was being released from HMP Chelmsford as he was due to be immediately deported.

Hadush Gerberslasie Kebatu was jailed for two sexual assaults in Epping. Pic: Essex Police / PA
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Hadush Gerberslasie Kebatu was jailed for two sexual assaults in Epping. Pic: Essex Police / PA

He was released on the expectation that he would be picked up by immigration enforcement, but it is currently unclear what happened next. It is understood that the Home Office was ready to take Kebatu to an immigration removal centre.

Sky sources say the search for Kebatu is within Essex, which launched a manhunt after he was accidentally freed on Friday morning.

Kebatu’s lawyer, Molly Dyas, told Chelmsford Magistrates’ Court during his trial that it was his “firm wish” to be deported.

Under the UK Borders Act 2007, a deportation order must be made where a foreign national has been convicted of an offence and received a custodial sentence of at least 12 months.

Kebatu was accidentally released from HMP Chelmsford. Pic: iStock
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Kebatu was accidentally released from HMP Chelmsford. Pic: iStock

Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy is said to be furious and has ordered an investigation and is supporting police efforts, according to a Government source.

Mr Lammy said in a post on X that he is “appalled at the release in error”, adding: “Kebatu must be deported for his crimes, not on our streets.”

Reform UK leader Nigel Farage said: “The Epping hotel migrant sex attacker has been accidentally freed rather than deported. He is now walking the streets of Essex. Britain is broken.”

Tory leader Kemi Badenoch said Kebatu was released as a result of “the entire system collapsing under Labour”.

Chelmsford MP Marie Goldman said in a statement following the accidental release: “The police must do everything they can to ensure that this man is returned to custody immediately so that he is deported at once.

“Once the manhunt is over, there must be a full, rapid public inquiry into how this happened. This is utterly unacceptable and has potentially put my constituents in danger. I expect answers from the Prison Service.”

Hadush Gerberslasie Kebatu, left, in a court sketch. Pic: Elizabeth Cook/PA
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Hadush Gerberslasie Kebatu, left, in a court sketch. Pic: Elizabeth Cook/PA

The Prison Service said in a statement that it was “urgently working with police to return an offender to custody following a release in error at HMP Chelmsford”.

“Public protection is our top priority and we have launched an investigation into this incident,” a spokesperson added.

It is understood that releases in error are incredibly rare and are taken extremely seriously by the Prison Service.

But policing and crime commentator Danny Shadow says that releases in error are actually not uncommon.

“Last year, there were 87 prisoners who were released in error. So that’s around six or so every single month. Seventy were released from error from prisons and another 17 from the courts,” the former Labour home affairs advisor told Sky News.

An officer has been removed from duties to discharge prisoners while the investigation is ongoing.

Kebatu was staying at the Bell Hotel in Epping. Pic: PA
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Kebatu was staying at the Bell Hotel in Epping. Pic: PA

During his trial, the court heard that Kebatu had tried to kiss the teenager, put his hand on her thigh and brushed her hair after she offered him pizza.

The asylum seeker also told the girl and her friend he wanted to have a baby with them and invited them back to the hotel.

The incident happened on 7 July, about a week after he arrived in the UK on a boat.

The girl later told police she “froze” and got “really creeped out”, telling him: “No, I’m 14.”

The Bell Hotel has been the site of protests over the summer. Pic: AP
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The Bell Hotel has been the site of protests over the summer. Pic: AP

Kebatu was also found guilty of sexually assaulting a woman – putting his hand on her thigh and trying to kiss her – when she tried to intervene after seeing him talking to the girl again the following day.

The incidents sparked anti-migrant protests and counter-protests outside the former Bell Hotel in Epping – as well as at hotels housing asylum seekers across the country.

This breaking news story is being updated and more details will be published shortly.

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Asylum seeker found guilty of hotel worker’s murder

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Asylum seeker found guilty of hotel worker's murder

An asylum seeker has been found guilty of murdering a hotel worker at a train station in the West Midlands.

Deng Chol Majek was caught on CCTV following Rhiannon Skye Whyte from the Park Inn hotel, in Walsall, where he lived and she worked, to the nearby Bescot Stadium station.

She was stabbed in the head with a screwdriver 19 times, and 23 times in total, on 20 October last year.

Deng Chol Majek. Pic: PA
Image:
Deng Chol Majek. Pic: PA

Mr Majek, who is from Sudan and claims to be 19 years old, had told Wolverhampton Crown Court he was at the hotel for asylum seekers at the time the 27-year-old was attacked.

A two-week trial heard that Mr Majek had previously been reported to security at the hotel after “spookily” staring at three female staff members for prolonged periods.

Ms Skye died in hospital three days after the attack, having been found injured in a shelter on the platform by the driver and guard of a train which pulled in about five minutes later.

Rhiannon Skye Whyte. Pic: Family handout/PA
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Rhiannon Skye Whyte. Pic: Family handout/PA

Mr Majek, who is about ten inches taller than Ms Whyte, walked to the Caldmore Green area of Walsall after the attack to buy beer, and was recorded on CCTV apparently wiping blood from his trousers.

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He returned to the hotel at 12.13am, changed his bloodstained flip-flops for trainers, and was seen dancing with other residents in the car park, within sight of emergency vehicles called to the station.

Asked by defence KC Gurdeep Garcha if he was at the train station when Ms Whyte was stabbed, Mr Majek replied: “No.”

He also denied being “responsible for that fatal assault” on the platform.

CCTV from the reception area of the hotel alleged to show Deng Chol Majek staring at Rhiannon Whyte, left. Pic: PA
Image:
CCTV from the reception area of the hotel alleged to show Deng Chol Majek staring at Rhiannon Whyte, left. Pic: PA

Prosecutor Michelle Heeley KC said of Mr Majek’s behaviour after the murder: “He is celebrating, his mood has changed from that prolonged scowl before the murder to dancing and joy after the murder. It is utterly callous.”

Mr Majek said he had spent time in Libya, Italy and Germany before arriving in the UK to claim asylum in July last year.

He will be sentenced at a later date.

‘She was always happy’

Rhiannon’s sister, Alex Whyte, said her sibling “always wanted to make everyone else around her happy”.

She said: “Rhiannon had such a quirky personality. You would hear her before you’d see her.

“No matter what her day had been, she always wanted to make everyone else around her happy. She always prioritised family. That was the most important thing to Rhiannon. Obviously, she has a brother and three sisters. And my mum, who was her best friend.”

She added: “Rhiannon is the second youngest. But our baby sister would always say ‘I’m your big little sister’, because Rhiannon was very soft.

“So, no matter what, we always wanted to protect her. That was our priority most of our life, because Rhiannon never saw danger – Rhiannon never understood how scary the world really could be.

“But no matter what Rhiannon was just happy, always.”

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Labour dealt historic loss in Caerphilly by-election – as Plaid Cymru win seat

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Labour dealt historic loss in Caerphilly by-election - as Plaid Cymru win seat

Plaid Cymru have won the by-election in the Senedd seat of Caerphilly for the first time.

The Welsh nationalist party secured 15,960 votes – and candidate Lindsay Whittle cried as the result was announced.

Mr Whittle is 72 years old and had stood as a Plaid candidate 13 times since 1983. He will now hold the seat until the Welsh Assembly’s national elections next year.

This by-election was widely regarded as a two-horse race between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK, and the result marks a considerable blow for Nigel Farage.

His candidate Llyr Powell received 12,113 votes – denying a victory that would have strengthened claims that Reform can convert a large lead in opinion polls into election wins.

Nonetheless, the party’s performance is a marked improvement on 2021, when it received just 495 votes.

More than anything, the result is a humiliating and historic defeat for Labour, who had held Caerphilly at every Senedd election since it was created in 1999 – as well as the Westminster seat for over a century.

Its candidate Richard Tunnicliffe secured 3,713 votes and finished in third place, with Welsh Labour describing it as a “by-election in the toughest of circumstances, and in the midst of difficult headwinds nationally”.

Turnout overall stood at 50.43% – considerably higher than during the last ballot back in 2021.

Giving his acceptance speech after the result was confirmed, Mr Whittle began by paying tribute to Hefin David – who was Welsh Labour’s Member of the Senedd for Caerphilly until his death in August.

“He will be a hard act to follow,” Mr Whittle said. “I will never fill his shoes – but I promise you, I will walk the same path that he did.”

The Plaid politician described how he had been “absolutely heartened” by how many young people were involved in the by-election – and said the result sends a clear message.

He said: “Listen now Cardiff and listen Westminster – this is Caerphilly and Wales telling you we want a better deal for every corner of Wales. The big parties need to sit up and take notice.

“Wales, we are at the dawn of new leadership, we are at the dawn of a new beginning – and I look forward to playing my part for a new Wales, and in particular, for the people of the Caerphilly constituency. I thank you with all my heart.”

Mr Whittle quipped Plaid’s victory “was better than scoring the winning try for Wales in the Rugby World Cup”.

And looking ahead to the next year’s elections, he added: “[This] result shows what’s possible when people come together to back practical solutions and protect what matters most.

“We’ve beaten billionaire-backed Reform and, with the same determination, we can do it again in May 2026. Caerphilly has shown the way – now Wales must follow.”

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How tactical voting helped Plaid Cymru

Speaking to Sky’s chief political correspondent Jon Craig just before the declaration, Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth said: “There’s clearly a real significance to the result – we are seeing the disillusionment with Labour writ large. I’ve heard it on hundreds of doorsteps, we’ve seen it in opinion polls.”

He conceded there was tactical voting in this by-election – with Labour and Conservative supporters alike backing Lindsay Whittle to keep out Reform.

However, Mr ap Iorwerth added: “I’ve spoken to literally hundreds and hundreds of people who told me – time and time again – ‘I’ve been a Labour supporter all my life, and we’re backing you this time.’

“Not begrudgingly, but because they see that’s the direction we’re going in – not just in this by-election, but as a nation. I’m calling on people to get behind that positive change – not just today, but ahead of next May.”

First Minister Eluned Morgan congratulated Mr Whittle on his return to the Senedd and said: “Welsh Labour has heard the frustration on doorsteps in Caerphilly that the need to feel change in people’s lives has not been quick enough.

“We take our share of the responsibility for this result. We are listening, we are learning the lessons, and we will be come back stronger.”

The Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats were among the parties who lost their deposits.

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