How Reform fares on Thursday will also determine the Conservatives fate
They came in their droves: thousands of Reform supporters poured into a vast hall in a Birmingham conference centre on Sunday to hear Nigel Farage.
His backers brought with them Union Jacks, and brandished Reform placards. There were even one or two red baseball caps emblazoned with the slogan “Make Britain Great Again”, which seemed fitting for an event that felt quite Trumpian in style and tone.
Mr Farage came onto the stage to pounding music, smoke machines, fireworks, and a sea of “it’s time for Reform” placards to a 5,000-strong crowd with a speech that spoke about how Britain was broken and it was time for Reform.
He said his party would be the “leading voice of opposition” as he attacked ‘the establishment’ in all its guises, from the Conservative Party to Labour, the BBC, and Channel 4 to the Governor of the Bank of England.
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While detractors describe Mr Farage’s platform as a type of dog-whistle politics that does little but to stoke grievances and division, there is an audience for him and his policies that politicians in larger parties should ignore at their peril.
When I spoke to many people in the hall afterwards, they were overwhelmingly former Conservative voters disillusioned with their old party.
One woman, who had travelled over from Hull for the rally told me she thought there were a lot of “silent people who may be frightened to say they are voting Reform”.
“I think it’s going to be shock,” she said.
The crowd in Birmingham. Pic: Reuters
2024 is the election for ‘the other parties’
The rise of the ‘other’ parties is a clear theme of this election campaign as the Liberal Democrats, who won just 11 seats back in 2019, now eye getting back to the levels of seats they enjoyed – in the 1940s or 1950s – before it was wiped out in 2015 on the back of the coalition years.
Nigel Farage’s Reform, meanwhile, is on 16.2% in our Sky News poll tracker, just behind the Tories on 20%.
Earlier this month, the Conservatives fell behind Reform UK for the first time in a national poll, leaving the Tories gripped by panic and in despair.
Mr Farage likes to make the argument that Labour could be heading to a landslide on a lower voter share.
Recent analysis in the Financial Times suggested Labour could win a record 450 seats – about 70% – on just 41% of the votes, lower than the figure Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour achieved in 2017, while the Lib Dems could pick up 50 seats with a lower share of the vote than Reform with just a few seats at best. If it turns out anything like this, prepare for plenty of noise from Mr Farage.
Whether undecided voters or those leaning to Reform stick with them on Thursday is a big unknown of this election. Tories are nervous, knowing that big Reform votes piling up in their constituencies could cost them their seat.
In 2019, the majority of Conservatives did not have a threat from the right, as the Brexit Party stood down candidates with a Brexit-backing Conservative candidate. They stood but 275 or 632 seats.
This time around, Reform is everywhere and no one feels safe: one poll put James Cleverly’s Braintree constituency, supposedly the 19th safest Conservative seat, on a knife edge as Reform clocks up an estimated 22% vote share in his Essex constituency.
Pic: Reuters
Tories in all-out war
The Conservatives, who began this campaign trying not to get into a fight with Mr Farage (perhaps for fear of further alienating their traditional voters) are now at all-out war as they try to salvage as many seats as they can.
On Sunday the party said if “just 130,000 voters currently considering a vote for Reform or the Lib Dems voted Conservative, it would be enough to stop Labour’s supermajority”.
The prime minister, meanwhile, has become increasingly vocal in his criticisms of Reform and Mr Farage as the party looks for a way to pull voters back.
Mr Sunak has been vocal in his criticism of Mr Farage as a “Putin appeaser” after the Reform leader suggested Ukraine enter peace talks – something which Ukraine has emphatically ruled out unless Russia retreats from its territory.
The prime minister also spoke of his “anger and hurt” over revelations – contested by Reform – in a Channel 4 undercover report of a Reform canvasser calling Mr Sunak a “f****** P***”.
This, combined with a Reform organiser making homophobic remarks and candidates being suspended for racist, antisemitic and sexist views has caused difficulties for Mr Farage in recent days.
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Sunak ‘hurt’ over Reform race row
Tensions around Farage starting to show
In our interview in Birmingham on Sunday, some of those tensions were beginning to show.
For a start, the politician who had appeared with right-wing Tories such as potential future leader Dame Priti Patel at the Conservative Party conference last October, and openly toyed about returning to the fold, now ruled out any sort of tie-up.
Having spoken but a month ago about a reverse takeover of the Tories and refusing to rule out one day rejoining the party, on Sunday he was clear he would not rejoin, and wanted nothing to do with the Conservatives.
Pic: Reuters
It comes after a clutch of senior figures, including Dame Priti, indicated that Mr Farage would now not be welcomed back into the party in the wake of the backlash over his claim the West provoked Russia to invade Ukraine and the racism row engulfing Reform.
He equally was more equivocal than he had been about Andrew Tate in the past, making it clear to me that he “disavowed’ him, and was also highly critical of Reform events organiser George James who made homophobic remarks, saying he was “furious” when he saw the footage (also in the Channel 4 report) of Mr James describing the Pride flag as “degenerate” and criticising the police for displaying the flag.
“They should be out catching the n***** not promoting the f******”,” he said in the report.
Mr Farage said Mr James was “crass, drunken, rude and wrong” and told me he had been asked to remove his membership. But he also said he was “down a few drinks” explaining: “We could all say silly things when we’re a bit drunk.”
When I asked him if people really say things like this when they are drunk, Mr Farage said: “People say all sorts of things when they’re drunk and often don’t remember. But it was awful.”
So awful that one Reform candidate announced on Sunday evening they were standing down and would instead back their local Conservative in the constituency of Erewash.
The question for Reform is whether their potential voters, looking at some of the controversy surrounding the party, decide it’s not for them after all.
What is absolutely clear is Reform’s performance will help determine that of the Conservatives on Thursday night as the election results come in.
If he’s successful, Mr Farage will be heading for parliament, not only giving him a bigger national platform but a democratic mandate. That spells trouble for a Conservative party already in turmoil.
Counter-terrorism police are investigating after an incident involving a crossbow and a firearm left two women injured in Leeds.
Police were called to Otley Road at 2.47pm on Saturday to reports of a “serious incident involving a man seen with weapons”, West Yorkshire Police said.
Officers arrived at the scene to find two women injured – and a 38-year-old man with a self-inflicted injury. All three were taken to hospital, with the man held under arrest, but their injuries are not believed to be life-threatening.
“Two weapons have been recovered from the scene, which were a crossbow and a firearm,” Counter Terrorism Policing North East said in a statement.
The incident happened on the ‘Otley Run’ pub crawl, with one venue saying it was closed for the evening due to “unforeseen circumstances”.
Officers guard one of the crime scenes
Officers inside the cordon in Leeds
Counter Terrorism Policing’s statement added: “Due to the circumstances surrounding the incident, Counter Terrorism Policing North East have taken responsibility for leading the investigation with the support of West Yorkshire Police.
“Extensive enquiries continue to establish the full circumstances and explore any potential motivation.”
Home Secretary Yvette Cooper described it as a “serious violent incident” and said she was being kept updated by police.
“Thank you to the police and emergency services for their swift response,” she said. “My thoughts are with the victims and all those affected by this attack.”
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Wrexham AFC have been promoted for the third season in a row.
The North Wales-based side has gone from the National League to the Championship in just three seasons, under its Hollywood owners Ryan Reynolds and Rob McElhenney.
Wrexham were second in the table and had a run of eight games unbeaten ahead of their match against Charlton Athletic on Saturday, which they won 3-0.
Wrexham’s James McClean lifts the League One trophy. Pic: PA
Wrexham’s Dan Scarr celebrates with the fans on the pitch after Wrexham won promotion to the Championship. Pic: PA
It is the first time any club has been promoted for three consecutive seasons within the top five tiers of English football.
The third oldest association football club in the world, Wrexham AFC was bought by Reynolds and McElhenney in 2020, and has since been the subject of a Disney+ documentary, Welcome To Wrexham.
Reynolds, wearing a Wrexham sweatshirt, and McElhenney were pictured celebrating each goal, and after the game, as the fans came onto the pitch at the SToK Cae Ras (Racecourse Ground) to celebrate the victory with the players.
Wrexham co-owners Rob McElhenney (L) and Ryan Reynolds and Ryan’s wife Blake Lively, before the match. Pic: PA
Both stars came onto the pitch after the supporters returned to the stands.
Speaking to Sky Sports, McElhenney praised those behind the scenes, referring to “so many that don’t get the credit they deserve, people who aren’t talked about”.
Reynolds said bringing success back to the club “seemed like an impossible dream” when they arrived in North Wales in 2020.
Wrexham’s Sam Smith celebrates in front of the fans after Wrexham won promotion to the Championship. Pic: PA
He put the three promotions down to “the coaching staff, the greatest dressing room” and an “all for one, one for all” attitude throughout the club, adding he was “speechless with their commitment and their emotion”.
As for the mouth-watering prospect of another promotion to the promised land of the Premier League, the pair agreed it was “for tomorrow”, before ending the interview with a joint mic-drop.
Veteran striker Steven Fletcher said, “as soon as I came to this club, I knew it was something special. We want to go again. We’ll reset in the summer, take a break and go again”.
“It has been a success.”
Just Stop Oil (JSO) insists it’s been “successful” – as its members ceremoniously hang up their orange high-vis vests during a march in central London.
Since the group formed three years ago, it’s drawn attention and criticism for its colourful, controversial protests, which ranged from disrupting sporting events to throwing soup on Vincent van Gogh’s Sunflowers, and climbing on gantries over the M25. It sprayed orange paint over Stonehenge, and cost police forces tens of millions of pounds.
Those days are now behind it; to the relief of many.
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As a few hundred activists marched through London on Saturday, blocking roads as they went; taxi drivers blared their horns and football fans shouted abuse from the pavement.
The PA News Agency filmed the moment a white minivan seemed to drive towards a group of protesters blocking the road.
Protesters shouted “I’m being pushed back!” to police, while the driver could be heard shouting “What about my right to get home?” to the officers gathered.
But JSO never set out to be popular. And it believes its tactics – though hated – have been successful; thanks to the new Labour government’s commitment to not issue new oil or gas exploration licences.
That’s why, it says, its ceasing direct action.
JSO hangs up its high-vis jackets in central London on Saturday
A washing line of high-vis jackets signifies JSO’s disbanding
“This moment marks the success of the JSO campaign – our demand was to end new oil and gas licences and that is now government policy.
“As a result of which four billion barrels of oil are being kept under the North Sea. The campaign has reached a natural end.”
Dr Oscar Berglund, senior lecturer in international public and social policy, disagrees that JSO is disappearing because it’s been “successful”.
He told Sky News policing strength and public perception might have more to do with it.
“They have very low levels of popularity. About 17% of the British population are kind of broadly supportive of what Just Stop Oil do. And that’s too low to recruit.
“It’s difficult to recruit members to something that is that unpopular, and then that a lot of people for good reason I think have kind of stopped believing in that kind of disruption as a means to achieve meaningful change.”
Group triggers specific new protest laws
One thing it did change is the law.
Policing commentator Graham Wettone tells us: “Obstruction of the highway, obstruction of rail networks for example, these are specific offences now.
“It’s given the police more tactics, more methods, more offences they can consider, even stopping and searching somebody who may have something to either lock themselves on or glue themselves to something.”
A JSO activist holds a picture of an imprisoned colleague
Emma Smart was held in prison for her activism with both Insulate Britain and Just Stop Oil.
“The high-vis might be going away,” she tells me, “but we aren’t.”
“These people aren’t going anywhere, we are still committed, dedicated, terrified by the failings of this government and governments around the world.”
JSO activists throw orange paint at van Gogh’s sunflowers
Orange smoke set off by JSO protesters at Stonehenge
She hopes for a time of reflection before it returns in a new form but says the need for climate activism is stronger than ever.
She also believes that while most people dislike JSO tactics, it still raises awareness of the cause and might even push people to more moderate campaign groups.
Just Stop Oil came behind other, similarly controversial climate campaign groups like Insulate Britain and Extinction Rebellion, and as it says goodbye, its disruptive methods have been seized upon by other organisations like the Pro-Palestinian Youth Justice.
The infamous Just Stop Oil orange vests might be going away, but the individual activists, their cause and campaign tactics feel here to stay.
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