How Reform fares on Thursday will also determine the Conservatives fate
They came in their droves: thousands of Reform supporters poured into a vast hall in a Birmingham conference centre on Sunday to hear Nigel Farage.
His backers brought with them Union Jacks, and brandished Reform placards. There were even one or two red baseball caps emblazoned with the slogan “Make Britain Great Again”, which seemed fitting for an event that felt quite Trumpian in style and tone.
Mr Farage came onto the stage to pounding music, smoke machines, fireworks, and a sea of “it’s time for Reform” placards to a 5,000-strong crowd with a speech that spoke about how Britain was broken and it was time for Reform.
He said his party would be the “leading voice of opposition” as he attacked ‘the establishment’ in all its guises, from the Conservative Party to Labour, the BBC, and Channel 4 to the Governor of the Bank of England.
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While detractors describe Mr Farage’s platform as a type of dog-whistle politics that does little but to stoke grievances and division, there is an audience for him and his policies that politicians in larger parties should ignore at their peril.
When I spoke to many people in the hall afterwards, they were overwhelmingly former Conservative voters disillusioned with their old party.
One woman, who had travelled over from Hull for the rally told me she thought there were a lot of “silent people who may be frightened to say they are voting Reform”.
“I think it’s going to be shock,” she said.
The crowd in Birmingham. Pic: Reuters
2024 is the election for ‘the other parties’
The rise of the ‘other’ parties is a clear theme of this election campaign as the Liberal Democrats, who won just 11 seats back in 2019, now eye getting back to the levels of seats they enjoyed – in the 1940s or 1950s – before it was wiped out in 2015 on the back of the coalition years.
Nigel Farage’s Reform, meanwhile, is on 16.2% in our Sky News poll tracker, just behind the Tories on 20%.
Earlier this month, the Conservatives fell behind Reform UK for the first time in a national poll, leaving the Tories gripped by panic and in despair.
Mr Farage likes to make the argument that Labour could be heading to a landslide on a lower voter share.
Recent analysis in the Financial Times suggested Labour could win a record 450 seats – about 70% – on just 41% of the votes, lower than the figure Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour achieved in 2017, while the Lib Dems could pick up 50 seats with a lower share of the vote than Reform with just a few seats at best. If it turns out anything like this, prepare for plenty of noise from Mr Farage.
Whether undecided voters or those leaning to Reform stick with them on Thursday is a big unknown of this election. Tories are nervous, knowing that big Reform votes piling up in their constituencies could cost them their seat.
In 2019, the majority of Conservatives did not have a threat from the right, as the Brexit Party stood down candidates with a Brexit-backing Conservative candidate. They stood but 275 or 632 seats.
This time around, Reform is everywhere and no one feels safe: one poll put James Cleverly’s Braintree constituency, supposedly the 19th safest Conservative seat, on a knife edge as Reform clocks up an estimated 22% vote share in his Essex constituency.
Pic: Reuters
Tories in all-out war
The Conservatives, who began this campaign trying not to get into a fight with Mr Farage (perhaps for fear of further alienating their traditional voters) are now at all-out war as they try to salvage as many seats as they can.
On Sunday the party said if “just 130,000 voters currently considering a vote for Reform or the Lib Dems voted Conservative, it would be enough to stop Labour’s supermajority”.
The prime minister, meanwhile, has become increasingly vocal in his criticisms of Reform and Mr Farage as the party looks for a way to pull voters back.
Mr Sunak has been vocal in his criticism of Mr Farage as a “Putin appeaser” after the Reform leader suggested Ukraine enter peace talks – something which Ukraine has emphatically ruled out unless Russia retreats from its territory.
The prime minister also spoke of his “anger and hurt” over revelations – contested by Reform – in a Channel 4 undercover report of a Reform canvasser calling Mr Sunak a “f****** P***”.
This, combined with a Reform organiser making homophobic remarks and candidates being suspended for racist, antisemitic and sexist views has caused difficulties for Mr Farage in recent days.
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Sunak ‘hurt’ over Reform race row
Tensions around Farage starting to show
In our interview in Birmingham on Sunday, some of those tensions were beginning to show.
For a start, the politician who had appeared with right-wing Tories such as potential future leader Dame Priti Patel at the Conservative Party conference last October, and openly toyed about returning to the fold, now ruled out any sort of tie-up.
Having spoken but a month ago about a reverse takeover of the Tories and refusing to rule out one day rejoining the party, on Sunday he was clear he would not rejoin, and wanted nothing to do with the Conservatives.
Pic: Reuters
It comes after a clutch of senior figures, including Dame Priti, indicated that Mr Farage would now not be welcomed back into the party in the wake of the backlash over his claim the West provoked Russia to invade Ukraine and the racism row engulfing Reform.
He equally was more equivocal than he had been about Andrew Tate in the past, making it clear to me that he “disavowed’ him, and was also highly critical of Reform events organiser George James who made homophobic remarks, saying he was “furious” when he saw the footage (also in the Channel 4 report) of Mr James describing the Pride flag as “degenerate” and criticising the police for displaying the flag.
“They should be out catching the n***** not promoting the f******”,” he said in the report.
Mr Farage said Mr James was “crass, drunken, rude and wrong” and told me he had been asked to remove his membership. But he also said he was “down a few drinks” explaining: “We could all say silly things when we’re a bit drunk.”
When I asked him if people really say things like this when they are drunk, Mr Farage said: “People say all sorts of things when they’re drunk and often don’t remember. But it was awful.”
So awful that one Reform candidate announced on Sunday evening they were standing down and would instead back their local Conservative in the constituency of Erewash.
The question for Reform is whether their potential voters, looking at some of the controversy surrounding the party, decide it’s not for them after all.
What is absolutely clear is Reform’s performance will help determine that of the Conservatives on Thursday night as the election results come in.
If he’s successful, Mr Farage will be heading for parliament, not only giving him a bigger national platform but a democratic mandate. That spells trouble for a Conservative party already in turmoil.
The suspended surgeon at Addenbrooke’s Hospital in Cambridge has been named as paediatric consultant Kuldeep Stohr.
Eight hundred patients operated on by Ms Stohr are having their cases urgently re-examined, after an external review found nine children whose care fell below expected standards.
The initial review was ordered after concerns were raised by her colleagues.
Sky News has seen a copy of the interim report which details several issues relating to complex hip surgeries performed by the surgeon.
One of the parents whose child was identified in the review showed us a recent letter from the hospital which reported “problems with both judgement and technique” in her child’s surgery.
Ms Stohr, who has been suspended since the end of January, said in a statement: “I always strive to provide the highest standards of care to all my patients.
“I am co-operating fully with the trust investigation and it would not be appropriate to comment further at this time.”
Tammy Harrison: ‘It was hell’
Left in agonising pain
Tammy Harrison, 12, has cerebral palsy and had surgeries carried out by Ms Stohr. Her operations didn’t work, leaving her in agonising pain.
She said: “My first one was just like trauma. I couldn’t get out of bed for eight weeks. I was either stuck in bed or stuck on the sofa. It was hell.”
Her mum, Lynn, told Sky News: “There is nothing that can put Tammy back to where she was now and that’s the sad thing.
“If I could just click my fingers and have the child back that I had I would do it with a blink of an eye.”
Ms Stohr operated on Lynn Harrison’s daughter
So far, there’s been no confirmation of any wrongdoing in Tammy’s care.
But her family have a meeting at the hospital this week to find out more.
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The trust has asked a panel of specialist clinicians to review all the planned operations carried out by Ms Stohr at Addenbrooke’s. One hundred emergency trauma cases will also be looked at.
Addenbrooke’s is a major regional trauma centre and treats serious emergency patients from all over the region.
One clinician at the hospital told Sky News that the review of so many patients was “creating a lot of extra work”, which was “slowing things down” for other patients awaiting treatment.
Addenbrooke’s Hospital. File pic: PA
At least one extra locum consultant has been helping the team, as they work through the caseload.
Trust apologises
Sky News has been told Cambridge University Hospitals Trust had wanted to identify Ms Stohr before but had been threatened with a legal injunction.
The trust has apologised unreservedly to families and patients. But what’s troubling many is the fact concerns were raised about Ms Stohr a decade ago.
Chief executive of Cambridge University Hospitals Trust, Roland Sinker, has set up another review to examine whether opportunities were missed, and action could have been taken sooner.
The Department of Health described the ongoing situation as “incredibly concerning.”
Sir Keir Starmer promised “bold changes” as he announced he will relax rules around electric vehicles after carmakers were hit by Donald Trump’s tariffs.
The prime minister said “global trade is being transformed” after the US president‘s 25% levy on imported cars, and 10% tariff on other products, came into force.
Jaguar Land Rover has said the firm will “pause” shipments to the US as it looks to “address the new trading terms”.
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Labour made a manifesto pledge to restore a 2030 ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars after it had been rolled back to 2035 by Rishi Sunak’s Conservative government.
Starmer promises to ‘back British business’. Pic: Reuters
Sir Keir will officially confirm the ban in an announcement on Monday but regulations around manufacturing targets on electric cars and vans will be altered, to help firms in the transition.
Luxury supercar firms such as Aston Martin and McLaren will still be allowed to keep producing petrol cars beyond the 2030 date, because they only manufacture a small number of vehicles per year.
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‘Nothing off the table’ over tariffs
Petrol and diesel vans will also be allowed to be sold until 2035, along with hybrids and plug-in hybrid cars.
The government is also going to make it easier for manufacturers who do not comply with the government’s Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) mandate, which sets sales targets, to avoid fines, and the levies will be reduced.
Sir Keir said: “I am determined to back British brilliance.
“Now more than ever UK businesses and working people need a government that steps up, not stands aside.
“That means action, not words.”
Officials have said support for the car industry will continue to be kept under review as the full impact of the tariffs announced last week becomes clear.
Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander said the industry deserves “clarity” in the economic context.
She said: “Our ambitious package of strengthening reforms will protect and create jobs, making the UK a global automotive leader in the switch to EVs, all the while meeting our core manifesto commitment to phase out petrol and diesel vehicles by 2030.”
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Mike Hawes, chief executive of the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders, said the government had “recognised the intense pressure manufacturers are under”, while Colin Walker, a transport analyst at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit, said the ZEV mandate is a “global success story” in driving a surge in sales of electric vehicles.
It comes as KPMG warned US tariffs on UK exports could see GDP growth fall to 0.8% in 2025 and 2026.
The accountancy firm said higher tariffs on specific categories, such as cars, aluminium and steel, would more than offset the exemption on pharmaceutical exports, leaving the effective tariffs imposed on UK exports at around 12%.
Yael Selfin, chief economist at KPMG UK, said: “Given the economic impact that tariffs would cause, there is a strong incentive to seek a negotiated settlement that diminishes the need for tariffs. The UK automotive manufacturing sector is particularly exposed given the complex supply chains of some producers.”
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