Secret ‘bunker’ and 17,000 interviews: The science and security of the exit poll

Published

1 year ago

July 1, 2024

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It is the first big moment of election night. The exit poll is the moment millions tune in for a first sniff of the eventual result of the general election.

And in Election 2024 this poll, with its impressive track record, sometimes down to a margin of only a few seats, will, once again, be a key part of broadcasters’ coverage – including here at Sky News – on Thursday night.

The current model was devised in 2005 by Professor John Curtice and statistician David Firth and it has been consistently reliable, bar 2015 when the seat numbers suggested a hung parliament and David Cameron scraped a thin majority.

But for the most part, its accuracy has been dependable. In 2010, it correctly predicted the exact number of seats for the Conservatives.

Commissioned by the broadcasters – Sky, BBC and ITV – the fieldwork is carried out by IPSOS UK who will have interviewers at 133 polling stations around the country this year.

People who have just voted will be asked to privately fill in a replica ballot paper and place it into a ballot box as they leave their local community centre, church hall or station.

Michael Clemence, from IPSOS UK, says this and the scale are part of what distinguishes the exit poll from the many surveys that have come before it.

“We’re going to be doing over 17,000 interviews on the day. And also we’re dealing with people’s behaviour. So we’re not asking people how they intend to vote.

“We’re talking to electors who just voted. And I’m asking exactly what they just did. So you’ve cut out the error in prediction polling.”

Researchers can only deploy to a fraction of the total constituencies in England, Scotland and Wales, so locations are chosen to best reflect the demographics of the country with an urban and rural spread.

However, many of the locations will be in marginal seats, where the swing between the main parties will be tracked.

The same polling stations are targeted year after year so the swing from the last election’s exit poll, along with other data at constituency level, can be analysed by those crunching the numbers.

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The data collected at the polling stations is sent back by interviewers to IPSOS UK at several stages throughout the day.

It’s processed there and sent via a secure data pipeline to the broadcasters’ statisticians and political scientists who are locked down in a secret location in the capital.

Phones confiscated in ‘the bunker’

“Our phones are taken away from us, there are security guards. So we don’t communicate with the outside world at all, we just talk to each other. So it’s a very strange feeling – as people are still going to the polls – already having a sense of what the result will be,” says Professor Will Jennings.

The Sky News election analyst and political scientist will be one of those inside that sealed and secret room on election day – and the key thing experts will be looking at is that change in voter behaviour.

“We’ll model the change in the vote at each of those polling stations, and we’ll try and look for patterns in that change and also particular characteristics of constituencies that might predict change and might predict what we’re seeing across the country,” says Professor Jennings.

“We will throw a lot of different variables at the data during the day, whether it’s the percentage of the local constituency that we think voted leave in the referendum, the number of people in working class jobs, the number of people who own a car, for example, it could be anything,” adds Professor Jennings.

“And we’ll try just to look for patterns in that data to explain as much variation as possible so that we know that our estimates are as reliable as they can be.”

By 10pm their work is done – and the fruit of that data gathering and analysis – the first real glimpse of the electorate’s verdict – is being digested and picked apart.

Politics

Clampdown on social media ads for Channel crossings unveiled

Published

7 hours ago

August 3, 2025

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Clampdown on social media ads for Channel crossings unveiled

Anyone who advertises Channel crossings or fake passports on social media could face up to five years in prison under new government plans.

Research suggests about 80% of migrants arriving to the UK by small boat used internet platforms during their journey – including to contact agents linked to smuggling gangs.

While it is already illegal to assist illegal immigration, ministers hope the creation of a new offence will give police more powers and disrupt business models.

Home Secretary Yvette Cooper is also planning to introduce a fast-track scheme to tackle the asylum backlog, meaning decisions will be made within weeks.

It comes as official figures show more than 25,000 people have arrived on small boats so far in 2025 – a record for this point in the year.

Ms Cooper said it is “immoral” for smugglers to sell false promises online, adding: “These criminals have no issue with leading migrants to life-threatening situations using brazen tactics on social media.

“We are determined to do everything we can to stop them, wherever they operate.”

The new offence prohibiting the online promotion of Channel crossings is set to be included in the Border Security, Asylum and Immigration Bill already going through Parliament.

Officials from the National Crime Agency already work with tech giants to remove such posts – with more than 8,000 taken offline last year.

A Preston-based smuggler who was jailed for 17 years had posted videos of migrants thanking him for his help.

Meanwhile, Albanian smugglers have created promotions for £12,000 “package deals” which claim to offer accommodation and a job in the UK on arrival.

The Conservatives have described the measures as “too little, too late” – and say automatic deportations are the only way to tackle small boat crossings.

Shadow home secretary Chris Philp said: “Labour still has no clear plan to deter illegal entry, no effective enforcement and no strategy to speed up removals. This is a panicked attempt to look tough after months of doing nothing.”

It comes as protests outside hotels believed to be housing asylum seekers continue in towns and cities across the UK.

Several demonstrators were detained – with police breaking up brief clashes – outside the Thistle City Barbican Hotel in north London yesterday.

The government is legally required to provide accommodation and subsistence to destitute asylum seekers while their claims are being decided, most of whom are prohibited from working.

Politics

China’s crypto liquidation plans reveal its grand strategy

Published

19 hours ago

August 2, 2025

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China’s crypto liquidation plans reveal its grand strategy

China’s plan to liquidate confiscated crypto through Hong Kong exchanges isn’t simply a policy — it’s to control global digital asset markets and outmaneuver the US.

Politics

Make ‘significant adjustments’ to Online Safety Act, X urges govt

Published

1 day ago

August 2, 2025

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X criticises Online Safety Act - and warns it's putting free speech in the UK at risk

The Online Safety Act is putting free speech at risk and needs significant adjustments, Elon Musk’s social network X has warned.

New rules that came into force last week require platforms such as Facebook, YouTube, TikTok and X – as well as sites hosting pornography – to bring in measures to prove that someone using them is over the age of 18.

The Online Safety Act requires sites to protect children and to remove illegal content, but critics have said that the rules have been implemented too broadly, resulting in the censorship of legal content.

X has warned the act’s laudable intentions were “at risk of being overshadowed by the breadth of its regulatory reach”.

It said: “When lawmakers approved these measures, they made a conscientious decision to increase censorship in the name of ‘online safety’.

“It is fair to ask if UK citizens were equally aware of the trade-off being made.”

X claims the timetable for platforms to meet mandatory measures had been unnecessarily tight – and despite complying, sites still faced threats of enforcement and fines, “encouraging over-censorship”.

“A balanced approach is the only way to protect individual liberties, encourage innovation and safeguard children. It’s safe to say that significant changes must take place to achieve these objectives in the UK,” it said.

A UK government spokesperson said it is “demonstrably false” that the Online Safety Act compromises free speech.

“As well as legal duties to keep children safe, the very same law places clear and unequivocal duties on platforms to protect freedom of expression,” they added.

Users have complained about age checks that require personal data to be uploaded to access sites that show pornography, and 468,000 people have already signed a petition asking for the new law to be repealed.

In response to the petition, the government said it had “no plans” to reverse the Online Safety Act.

Reform UK’s leader Nigel Farage likened the new rules to “state suppression of genuine free speech” and said his party would ditch the regulations.

Technology Secretary Peter Kyle said on Tuesday that those who wanted to overturn the act were “on the side of predators” – to which Mr Farage demanded an apology, calling Mr Kyle’s comments “absolutely disgusting”.

Regulator Ofcom said on Thursday it had launched an investigation into how four companies – that collectively run 34 pornography sites – are complying with new age-check requirements.

These companies – 8579 LLC, AVS Group Ltd, Kick Online Entertainment S.A. and Trendio Ltd – run dozens of sites, and collectively have more than nine million unique monthly UK visitors, the internet watchdog said.

The regulator said it prioritised the companies based on the risk of harm posed by the services they operated and their user numbers.

It adds to the 11 investigations already in progress into 4chan, as well as an unnamed online suicide forum, seven file-sharing services, and two adult websites.

Ofcom said it expects to make further enforcement announcements in the coming months.