General Election 2024: Private school head warns of hit to kids under Labour tax grab

Published

11 months ago

July 2, 2024

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Hulme Grammar School in Oldham doesn’t feel like a bastion of privilege, but the children whose parents pay around £15,000 a year for them to attend are nevertheless among an elite minority.

A selective fee-paying school, Hulme is one of around 2,500 independent schools that educate 7% of the school population, a minority that is the target of one of Labour’s few unapologetically tax-raising policies.

If elected, Labour says it will end the VAT exemption on fees, making them subject to 20% tax, raising an estimated £1.6bn the party says will be used to hire 6,500 teachers in the state sector that educates 93% of children.

Private school parents fear the increase will be passed on directly, pricing some children out, while industry bodies claim some schools will close.

Oldham is one of the poorest towns in England and Hulme is one of the country’s more affordable independent schools, its fees around the national average and well short of the £50,000 charged by Eton and the prime minister’s alma mater Winchester College.

Headteacher Tony Oulton, state educated and with experience working on both sides of Britain’s educational divide, says Labour’s policy misrepresents the majority of private schools and punishes parents.

“The sector is not Eton or Harrow or Winchester, the big posh boarding schools largely based in the south of England.

“The majority is made up of schools like mine where parents are making real sacrifices to pay the school fees because that’s how they are choosing to prioritise their spending.”

‘They are prioritising education the way some prioritise holidays’

Even without the Labour policy, fees at Hulme will rise 5.5% next year, a figure Mr Oulton says reflects the wider costs pressures, primarily wages for teachers. He says he cannot absorb the VAT rise without sacrificing the 24-child class size limit he believes parents are paying for.

“I lament the political debate, the loss of nuance and insight into the impact on children.

“The idea they are buying privilege and separation would not resonate with parents here. They don’t recognise the rhetoric that sits around this, that they are part of some privileged elite. They are prioritising education the way some prioritise holidays.”

Privately educated children do nevertheless enjoy advantages. At £15,000 the average fee is double the £7,500-per-head funding in the state sector, and selection allows independent schools to choose who they want to educate.

Analysis by the Institute for Fiscal Studies meanwhile shows that private school attendance is concentrated among the wealthiest households, with three quarters of pupils drawn from the 30% of highest earners, and most from the top 10%.

This perhaps explains why Labour has felt able to concentrate one of its few openly tax-raising policies on the sector.

It argues that the needs of the state system, relied on by 93% of parents, make it popular while unspoken is the possibility that complaints of those who can afford fees in the first place will elicit little sympathy.

They are relaxed too about warnings that increasing fees will lead to an exodus of pupils that will put state schools under pressure.

Private school rolls have remained constant despite average fees increasing almost 50% in the last decade, and state secondary registers are forecast to fall 7% in the next decade as a population bulge passes through the system.

State education is facing undeniable challenges, including recruitment and retention, with one in four teachers leaving after three years in classrooms.

The growth in demand for special educational needs provision is also putting schools and local authorities under pressure. Some 576,000 children had an active education and health plan in January, almost as many as the total private school roll of around 615,000.

Headlands School in Bridlington faces typical challenges, all while working to clear a £1m deficit from its budget.

Assistant head teacher Adam Wooley said the issues for state education go beyond the school gate.

“It is not just about school funding but funding all the services around young people. A million people are in child poverty so there is only so much schools can do if children come in hungry, cold and without that stable foundation,” he says.

“I take the argument from private schools and parents that it is a squeeze on people being aspirational for their children, but all parents are aspirational. State schools can and absolutely should be a place where you can send your child and aspire to great things, but that needs funding.”

Business

IMF upgrades UK economic growth forecast – but issues tariffs warning

Published

4 hours ago

May 27, 2025

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IMF upgrades UK economic growth forecast - but issues tariffs warning

The UK economy will grow more than previously thought, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which has upgraded its latest forecast.

It also said the Bank of England should “continue to ease monetary policy gradually”, indicating it expected further reductions in interest rates.

But it warned trade tensions linked to US tariff plans will reduce UK economic growth next year.

The Washington-based UN financial agency said the UK economy will expand 1.2% this year and “gain momentum next year”.

The upgrade in forecasts, however, is slight, up from an expected 1.1% announced in April as the world reeled from the global trade war sparked by US President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

That April figure was a 0.5% downgrade from the projected 1.6% growth for 2025 the IMF foresaw in January and the 1.5% forecast issued in October.

It means the IMF expects the UK economy to grow less this year than it forecast in October and January.

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Tariffs warnings

This anticipated lower growth is largely due to tariffs – taxes on goods imported to the United States – and the uncertainty caused by shifting trade policy in the US, the world’s largest economy.

While many tariffs have been paused until 8 July, it’s unclear if deals will be in place by then and if pauses may be extended.

The effect of this has been quantified as a 0.3 percentage points lower growth by 2026 in the UK, the IMF said.

The organisation held its prediction that the UK economy will grow by 1.4% in 2026.

“The forecast assumes that global trade tensions lower the level of UK GDP by 0.3% by 2026, due to persistent uncertainty, slower activity in UK trading partners, and the direct impact of remaining US tariffs on the UK,” it said.

It comes despite the UK having agreed a deal with the Trump administration to circumvent the 25% tariffs on cars and metals.

The IMF also cautioned that “weak productivity continues to weigh on medium-term growth prospects”.

Lower productivity has been an issue since the global financial crash of 2008-2009, but has been caused by “chronic under-investment”, low private sector research and development, limited access to finance for businesses to expand, skill gaps, and a “deterioration in health outcomes”, it said.

Interest rates

Interest rates “should” continue to come down, making borrowing cheaper, though the IMF acknowledged rate-setters at the Bank of England now have a “more complex” job due to the recent rise in inflation and “fragile” growth.

The author of the report on the UK, Luc Eyraud, said the IMF expected the Bank to cut interest rates by 0.25 percentage points every three months until they reach a level of around 3%, down from the current 4.25%.

Praise was given to the UK government as the IMF said “fiscal plans strike a good balance between supporting growth and safeguarding fiscal sustainability”.

“After a slowdown in the second half of 2024, an economic recovery is under way,” the IMF said.

Global factors – “weaker export performance in the challenging global environment” – are blamed for the slowdown last year.

The news is being taken as a win by Chancellor Rachel Reeves.

“The UK was the fastest growing economy in the G7 for the first three months of this year and today the IMF has upgraded our growth forecast,” she said.

“We’re getting results for working people through our plan for change – with three new trade deals protecting jobs, boosting investment and cutting prices, a pay rise for three million workers through the national living wage, and wages beating inflation by £1,000 over the past year.”

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What is the two-child benefit cap and will Labour scrap it?

Published

4 hours ago

May 27, 2025

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What is the two-child benefit cap and will Labour scrap it?

The government is considering getting rid of the two-child benefit cap first brought in by the Conservatives.

The policy has caused considerable consternation within the Labour Party, with a growing number of MPs calling to scrap it and ministers so far refusing to.

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But now, Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson has given the government’s strongest hint yet it may scrap the cap after she told Sky News ministers are “considering” lifting it.

We look at what the cap is and the controversy over it.

What is the two-child benefit cap?

Since 2017, parents have only been able to claim child tax credit and universal credit for their first two children, if they were born after April 2017.

An exception is made for children born as a result of rape.

Who introduced it?

Then work and pensions secretary Iain Duncan Smith first proposed the policy in 2012 under the Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition government.

It was not until 2015 that then chancellor George Osborne announced a cap would be introduced from the 2017/2018 financial year.

The coalition said it made the system fairer for taxpayers and ensured households on benefits faced the same financial choices around having children as those not on benefits.

What is Labour’s position on the cap?

The party has long been divided over the issue, with Sir Keir Starmer ruling out scrapping the cap in 2023.

He then said Labour wanted to remove it, but only when fiscal conditions allowed.

Following Labour’s landslide victory last July, the prime minister refused to bow to pressure within his party, and suspended seven MPs for six months for voting with the SNP to scrap the cap.

Ministers have toed the party line for months, but the narrative started to shift in May, with Sir Keir reported to have asked the Treasury to see how scrapping it could be funded.

The publication of Labour’s child poverty strategy was delayed from the spring to autumn, fuelling speculation the government wants to use the next budget to scrap the cap.

Then the education secretary told Sky News on 27 May lifting the cap is “not off the table” – and “it’s certainly something that we’re considering”.

How many children does the cap affect?

Government figures show one in nine children (1.6m) are impacted by the two-child limit.

In the first three months Labour were in power, 10,000 children were pulled into poverty by the cap, the Child Poverty Action Group found.

In May, it said another 109 children are pulled into poverty each day by the limit, adding to the 4.5 million already in poverty.

The Resolution Foundation said the cap would increase the number of children in poverty to 4.8 million by the next election in 2029-30.

Torsten Bell, the foundation’s former chief executive and now a Labour Treasury minister, said scrapping the cap would lift 470,000 children out of poverty.

How much would lifting the cap cost the taxpayer?

The cap means for every subsequent child after the first two, families cannot claim benefits worth £3,455 a year, according to the Institute for Government.

It estimates removing the limit would cost the government about £3.4bn a year – equal to roughly 3% of the total working-age benefit budget.

It is also approximately the same cost as freezing fuel duties for the next parliament.

Research has found the indirect fiscal impacts of lifting the cap could be higher, as some data shows investing in young children can pay for itself by causing better outcomes for them later in life.

Business

Donald Trump says he will postpone 50% tariffs on EU until July

Published

2 days ago

May 25, 2025

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Donald Trump says he will postpone 50% tariffs on EU until July

Donald Trump says he will delay the imposition of 50% tariffs on goods entering the United States from the European Union until July, as the two sides attempt to negotiate a trade deal.

It comes after the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, said in a post on social media site X that she had spoken to Mr Trump and expressed that they needed until 9 July to “reach a good deal”.

The US president had last Friday threatened to bring in the 50% tariffs from 1 June, as European leaders said they were ready to respond with their own measures.

But Mr Trump has now said that date has been put back to 9 July to allow more time for negotiations with the 27-member bloc, with the phone call appearing to smooth over tensions for now at least.

Speaking on Sunday before boarding Air Force One for Washington DC, Mr Trump told reporters that he had spoken to Ms Von der Leyen and she “wants to get down to serious negotiations” and she vowed to “rapidly get together and see if we can work something out”.

The US president, in comments on his Truth Social platform, had reignited fears last Friday of a trade war between the two powers when he said talks were “going nowhere” and the bloc was “very difficult to deal with”.

Mr Trump told the media in Morristown, New Jersey, on Sunday that Ms Von der Leyen “just called me… and she asked for an extension in the June 1st date. And she said she wants to get down to serious negotiation”.

“We had a very nice call and I agreed to move it. I believe July 9th would be the date. That was the date she requested. She said we will rapidly get together and see if we can work something out,” the US president added.

Shortly after, he wrote on Truth Social: “I agreed to the extension – July 9, 2025 – It was my privilege to do so.”

On his so-called “liberation day” last month, Mr Trump unleashed tariffs on many of America’s trade partners. But since then he’s backed down in a spiralling tit-for-tat tariff face-off with China, and struck a deal with the UK.

Much of his most incendiary rhetoric on trade has been directed at Brussels, though, even going as far as to claim the EU was created to rip the US off.

Responding to his 50% tariff threat, EU trade chief Maros Sefcovic said: “EU-US trade is unmatched and must be guided by mutual respect, not threats.

“We stand ready to defend our interests.”