Dillon penalty boxes in NASCAR, Logano lucky his isn’t worse
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Ryan McGee
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Ryan McGee
ESPN Senior Writer
- Senior writer for ESPN The Magazine and ESPN.com
- 2-time Sports Emmy winner
- 2010, 2014 NMPA Writer of the Year
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Marty Smith
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Marty Smith
ESPN
- ESPN NASCAR lead reporter
- Former NASCAR.com senior writer
- 15 years covering NASCAR
Aug 15, 2024, 12:06 PM ET
On Sunday night at Richmond International Raceway, Austin Dillon wrecked his way to a thrilling season-saving victory that returned him to the winner’s circle for the first time in nearly two years and also earned him a coveted spot in the NASCAR Playoffs … until it didn’t. On Wednesday, NASCAR announced that Dillon would keep the win but it would no longer count toward his postseason eligibility. The sanctioning body also suspended his spotter for three races and fined Joey Logano, one of Dillon’s two in-race victims, $50,000 for angrily weaving through people on the postrace pit lane on his way to express his displeasure to Dillon’s crew.
It’s a lot to process. A lot of people are angry and have been since Sunday night. So, who better to sift through the physical, emotional and financial wreckage than Marty & McGee?
McGee: First things first. What did you think of the Richmond finish over the weekend before all this other news and podcasts and penalties happened?
Marty: I thought it was desperate by Dillon, but he was in a desperate position. And given the context of the rules under which he was playing in the moment, I don’t blame him one bit for doing what he did.
McGee: Agreed.
Marty: He is the heir of his grandfather’s racing organization that has had an awful year, competitively irrelevant, very rarely made any speed. And for one of the first times all year long, you’re actually running up front all night. And if you go back and look at the practice speeds, he was making speed all weekend, so he had a legitimately good race car. This is an opportunity for him to supplant other drivers that were dozens of positions ahead of him in the point standings and guarantee himself, in that moment, the opportunity for his team to get all the exposure, any bonus money, any escalators, of being a playoff team at the highest level of American motorsport. So, he did what he had to do. And there is a hell of a long line of sinners who’ve done the same thing and been celebrated for it.
McGee: There have always been those racers who have never received the benefit of the doubt, and Dillon is one of those drivers. It has been that way his entire career. I have written columns about it. I’ve argued with people on Twitter about it. Those are the people that I’m talking about. And among those people are race car drivers, people who race against him on the weekends. “Well, he’s no Dale Earnhardt, and he doesn’t deserve the No. 3!” But I would also argue that had Dale Earnhardt done what Austin Dillon did at Richmond, then they would still be replaying it on all of NASCAR social media, and it would be on a loop in the NASCAR Hall of Fame because who you are makes a huge difference on how things are perceived. Speaking of perception, your perception of the penalties? Dillon was in the NASCAR Playoffs, and now he’s not.
Marty: I think we won’t know a real answer for a while. I think this has to play itself out a little bit to really have a true understanding of its magnitude. I understand NASCAR’s positioning because of the blatant nature of the decision Dillon made. All that said, I personally do not agree with the decision.
McGee: Me, either. We now have a ripple effect that I’m not sure NASCAR is going to want.
Marty: I think that he was playing under the rules that were in place. Denny Hamlin is upset and has a right to be. Sorry. Logano is upset and has a right to be. Sorry. But those are the rules, and NASCAR will say, “We didn’t take his win away!” but what they took away was more valuable than the trophy, and so for me, I don’t like the decision on NASCAR’s part. They will say they are setting a precedent that you can’t do this. Well, I think it’s based on making sure this doesn’t happen in Phoenix at the end of the year. Well, tell them before you go into the competitive arena at Phoenix: “If you do that and we deem it purposeful, you ain’t getting the title.”
McGee: Absolutely. There are contextual penalties. That exists in any sport. You talk to any football official, and they will tell you that there’s a personal foul they won’t call in the second quarter that they will absolutely call with two minutes to go in a game, when the stakes are higher and when they have warned the players multiple times during the game or even during the season, “If you guys keep doing this, it’s going to cost you.”
Marty: Context matters.
McGee: Hell yes it does, and people who like to go back to the old days, that’s how Bill France Jr. did it when he was in charge. He would walk in and say, “All right, this is how this is going to be today, and y’all better not do this.” And then there were also times where he would say, “OK, y’all do everything you want today.” And it doesn’t feel like that context existed in this decision. You wanted to set a precedent and you’ve done it, but now you are also going to have to defend it when you don’t do this in certain situations going forward.
Marty: I was in the truck for 11 hours on Wednesday, just the dog and me, and I was going back through NASCAR history in my head, and some of those moments you’re discussing, whether it is Jeff Gordon and Rusty Wallace in 1998 …
McGee: At Richmond!
Marty: Kyle Busch dumping Dale Jr. to win in 2008 …
McGee: At Richmond!
Marty: I know playoff positions weren’t up for grabs at that moment, but it still speaks to the broader scope and magnitude of NASCAR’s decision or Dillon’s decision, that are wider-reaching and deeper. But I just like it. I think that those types of moments are what built the sport. And quite frankly, because of that finish, NASCAR was on “SportsCenter” immediately on Sunday night, right? NASCAR hadn’t been on “SportsCenter” since six months ago when Ryan McGee was doing a live shot in a motorized recliner at the Daytona 500.
McGee: It goes back to the 1979 Daytona 500 and “the fight.” Publicly, NASCAR fined Cale Yarborough and the Allison brothers for “actions detrimental to the sport.” Privately, Bill Jr. flew them down to Daytona, thanked them for what they did and never charged them a dime.
Marty: Then there is the other half of this Richmond story. You have every right to be pissed off if you are Logano, but when you’re on the pit lane and it’s the end of a race — and you and I both lived it millions of times — it’s chaos. There are people running everywhere. Joey lost his temper, but you have to make sure, as furious as he was and had a right to be, you have to maintain your composure much better than he did. There is zero excuse for driving down the pit lane through people. Zero.
NASCAR got it right with all of the post-Richmond rulings. And after watching Logano’s onboard camera as he plowed down the postrace pit lane, people are lucky they aren’t in the hospital and he’s lucky he didn’t end up jail. pic.twitter.com/ZyGMzDLAz5
— Ryan McGee (@ESPNMcGee) August 14, 2024
McGee: He’s lucky he’s not in jail, and we are all lucky that people aren’t in the hospital. A lot of fans have said to me, “Well, those people shouldn’t have been out there!” No, there’s a rhythm to that, a postrace routine that has been in place forever. Regardless of whether they should be out there, they were where they were, right? There’s safety in that routine: Cars stay to the right, people stay to the left, and those people aren’t allowed to go all the way out there until the cars come to a complete stop. As soon as Logano pulled left and started driving through people, that routine and rhythm was altered. That’s why that family was standing there; they were standing in a safe spot. There weren’t supposed to be race cars there. People have said to me, “Well, yeah, what if his brakes had gone out?” Irrelevant, because they wouldn’t have been allowed out there until the cars had stopped.
Marty: He just knows better than that.
McGee: Yes, he does, because his family does that same routine, too. That, to me, was even more egregious than what took place on a racetrack, because a race car driver knows what he’s getting into. A NASCAR official and a pit crew member and a mom holding a baby, they know where they are, but they also know where they are standing is supposed to be safe. He created a very, very unsafe environment.
Marty: He’s been a Cup Series driver forever, more than half his life, and you have a right, in my opinion, to march your ass into Victory Lane and bust Austin Dillon right in the mouth. That’s you and him.
McGee: Not you and innocent bystanders.
Marty: I wonder what will happen if this happens again, and how will NASCAR rule it? Is it now black and white? Dillon hooking Hamlin and running into Logano, that was not subjective. He did both like a bat out of hell to give his team that chance to make the playoffs. A lot of calls coming to the checkers are subjective, though. So, if you’re a team who is 20th in points, or hell, 18th in points, and you’re right outside that threshold, and you’re door to door, coming to the checkers, and you’re on the outside, you’re leaning on that door and somebody gets dumped, what’s NASCAR going to do? Well, now they are in the box.
McGee: A box they built themselves.
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eBay gloves, cursing pitchers and unhittable splits: The magic chemistry of the Blue Jays
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October 24, 2025By
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In the 15 days in October we spent with the American League champion Toronto Blue Jays, you learn a lot about the team. Here is a sampling:
The game glove that infielder Ernie Clement uses was purchased a few months ago on eBay. “Mine was getting worn, so this one looked good on eBay, so bought it,” he said. “I have to wear a glove underneath my glove because this glove is so old, it has no padding in it.” Even with a glove purchased on eBay, Clement is a terrific defender. He is an AL Gold Glove finalist at third base and as a utility player. He personifies the flexibility of the Blue Jays, an elite defensive team that moves several players around the infield, and has others who play infield or outfield equally well. Clement can really throw on the run, and his transfer on the double play from second base is lightning fast. He has 18 hits and only two strikeouts in 42 at-bats in this postseason in which he has shined as a damn good player. His aggressive hitting approach comes from Coach Pitch when he was 6 years old. “We got three pitches per at-bat,” he said. “My dad would say, ‘You’d better swing.”’ Clement also happens to look exactly like a young Aaron Boone. “I’ve heard that,” Clement said, smiling. Boone said, laughing, “So have I. I’ll have to meet him someday and tell him that this [his face] is what he has to look forward to someday.”
Reliever Louis Varland will pitch whenever you give him the ball. His preference would be to pitch every day. He pitched in 10 of the 11 postseason games for the Blue Jays. He started as an opener against the Yankees in Game 4 of the AL Division Series one day after pitching in relief. “He would have pitched nine innings if I would’ve let him,” manager John Schneider said. That competitive nature comes from his time as a high school wrestler in Minnesota. Varland wrestled as a freshman at 106 pounds and 160 pounds as a senior. His junior and senior year in baseball, he played at 185 pouonds — he would lose 25 pounds to make weight for wrestling, then gain it back for baseball. “I would lose 20 pounds in a week,” he said. “I did it the unhealthy way. We’ll just leave it at that.”
Infielder Andres Gimenez is “the best defensive player I’ve ever seen at any position,” said Guardians manager Stephen Vogt, who coached Gimenez in Cleveland in 2024. “He is incredible.” Clement, a brilliant defender himself, said Gimenez “is the best I’ve ever seen. He makes plays no one else can make.” Gimenez is the best defensive second baseman in baseball, but after the injury in early September to Bo Bichette, Gimenez moved to shortstop where he has been tremendous. During infield practice, Gimenez takes ground balls from his knees, and uses a miniature glove, each of which trains him to focus his eyes on the ball. He has great feet in part because he played soccer growing up in Venezuela, a la Omar Vizquel. Gimenez loves soccer. “It is my hobby, I watch it all the time,” he said. Gimenez hit cleanup on Opening Day 2025 — and made 18 other starts there — for the Blue Jays. He also started 34 games out of the No. 9 spot in the order during the regular season as well as all 11 games the Blue Jays have played in October. He is one of seven players in major league history to start at least 15 games out of the cleanup spot and 15 out of the No. 9 spot in a season. And during his postseason, he became one of seven players in history to hit home runs in back-to-back games out of the No. 9 spot in a postseason game.
Pitcher Max Scherzer remains an extreme competitor at age 41. “He found out that I played basketball,” said Jays pitcher Chris Bassitt, who was a great high school basketball player. “So Max told me, ‘We’re playing one-on-one. And we’re playing full court.”’ Bassitt laughed and said, “Max, I’m not playing full court one-on-one with you.” Scherzer started the critical Game 4 of the ALCS against the Mariners, becoming the first pitcher to start a postseason game for six different franchises. He hadn’t pitched since Sept. 24. No one had any idea what he was going to give them, so, of course, he gave a sturdy 5⅔ innings. Schneider went to the mound to check on Scherzer in the fifth inning. “I’m f—ing good!” Scherzer barked at Schneider. “Let’s f—ing go!” Schneider said with a smile, “I was scared,” then added, “you should have seen the conversation we had between [the fourth and fifth innings]. I asked him if he was OK. He said, ‘What, are you f—ing kidding? Get the f— out of here!” The next day, Schneider’s comments were relayed to Scherzer. He smiled, half-embarrassed, half-proud, and said, “I just can’t help it.”
Addison Barger swings the bat as hard as any player in the game, and his plan is to do so on every pitch. He takes relentless batting practice every day. His nickname is “Bam Bam,” but it comes from the name of his mother’s dog, not how hard he hits a baseball. He plays third base and right field — more Toronto defensive flexibility. “He has the best throwing arm of any third baseman I’ve ever seen,” Clement said. In an 8-2 victory in Game 4 in Seattle, Barger’s tremendous throw from right field cut down Josh Naylor at third base for a crucial third out in the sixth inning. “He threw 98-99 [mph] in high school,” Schneider said. When I asked Barger if he could throw 98-99 mph today if he were asked to close on the mound, he laughed and said, “I’d throw 100.”
Catcher Alejandro Kirk, at 5-foot-8, 240 pounds, looks less like an athlete than anyone on the field, the catching equivalent of Bartolo Colon. But “he has tremendous bat-to-ball skills,” Schneider said. “And the first time I saw him catch, I saw that he had elite hands. And he never gets too excited. And he never gets pissed off.” Kirk blocks balls in the dirt as well as any catcher in the game, and is exceptionally adept at catching pitches down. Kirk hit two home runs on the final day of the season when the Blue Jays clinched the AL East title, then became the first player in major league history to follow two homers in the season finale with two home runs in the first playoff game. Kirk is immensely popular in Toronto. “Everyone just loves him here,” Clement said. “When he stole his first base of the season, I was at the plate. I had to step out of the box because the cheering was so loud from the fans.”
Ace Kevin Gausman has one of the best split-fingered fastballs of any pitcher in the game, but the grip on that pitch can occasionally cause a blister so Gausman usually doesn’t throw his split during his bullpen sessions between starts. “That’s rare,” Bassitt said. “But he is so comfortable with the grip, he doesn’t need to practice it.” Gausman pitched in relief in the clinching Game 7 against the Mariners. “I can get loose in a hurry,” he said before the game. “I grew up in Colorado. It was cold. To get warm, and to get loose quickly, I would put hot stuff all over my body. It really worked, but when you I started to sweat, whoa.”
First baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr., one of the best hitters in the game, went to a new level in the postseason, going 19-for-43 with six homers, 13 RBIs and only three strikeouts. “He has power, and he’s a pest at the plate,” Blue Jays outfielder Myles Straw said. “Not many hitters are both. He’s one of the best hitters I’ve ever played with. Bottom of the ninth, need a hit, I take Vladdy every time.” Guerrero was a wrecking ball against the Yankees in the division series, and equally destructive against the Mariners in the ALCS. “He has a long swing, but he can cover anything,” Gausman said. “Not many hitters can do that.” Clement was asked to explain how anyone can hit with such power, and also put the ball in play as often as Guerrero. “There is no explaining him,” Clement said. “He is on a different level.” Guerrero is also a very good defensive first baseman, he has already won a Gold Glove, and is a Gold Glove finalist this season. He also runs so much better than people think, which he showed when he scored from second on a single in the ALCS. There is a perception that Guerrero is a heavy-set, unathletic first baseman. “Nothing could be further from the truth,” Clement said. Guerrero, the son of Hall of Famer Vladimir Guerrero Sr., is an instinctive player “with a really high baseball IQ,” Schneider said. “He had that when he was 18 years old.” Indeed. In Game 6 against Seattle, he got a great read on a ball in the dirt, advanced to third, then scored on a throw in the dirt by Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh. On the key throw by Barger in Game 4 of the ALCS, the throw could have gone home or to third. Guerrero was aggressively signaling Barger to throw it to third. Guerrero gets those instincts, that feel for the game, from his father: They are the other father-son combination to each have a four-hit game in the postseason.
Pitcher Trey Yesavage, age 22, made three major league starts, then started Game 2 against the Yankees, becoming the seventh pitcher in history to start a postseason game having thrown 14 innings or less in his regular-season career. Of course, against the Yankees, he pitched 5⅓ innings, gave up no hits, walked one and struck out 11 — he is the first pitcher to strike out 10 in the first four innings of his first postseason start. He showed incredible poise, and has a presence on the mound like that of Gaylord Perry. Schneider never saw Yesavage in spring training. He was so far from playing in the major leagues, he was always throwing on a back field. “As he was moving up, I saw him on film and video,” Schneider said. “But when he got here, he looked different.” Film and video can tell you only so much about a player. Yesavage’s slider is thrown from directly over the top and that steep angle makes it very hard to pick up, a la Juan Guzman. “I have never seen a slider like that,” Kirk said. Backup catcher Tyler Heineman said, “Neither have I.” Yesavage also dominated the Yankees with his split, which also baffled the Mariners in Game 6. There is a rule in baseball that you don’t speak to that day’s starting pitcher on the day of the game. Yet there was Yesavage, before Game 6 against Seattle, talking to ESPN’s Karl Ravech about football. Yesavage went out and threw well for 5⅔ innings in an elimination game.
Utility man Davis Schneider is an above-average defensive second baseman and an above-average defensive corner outfielder. He doesn’t look like a baseball player with his mustache and thick glasses. But he is the personification of a baseball player. He hits every day with Barger, his buddy, and he swings almost as hard as Barger does. “He was almost released three times in the minor leagues,” Schneider said. “But he kept on fighting. He just figured it out.” He’s not the only Blue Jay player who figured it out.
Schneider is superstitious. Before Game 6, he walked to the ballpark. “I either drive or walk,” he said. “I walked yesterday. We won. So I walked again today.” When asked if he ran into any fans on the street, he said, “Yeah, a few. They all said, ‘Good luck.”’ Then Schneider smiled and said, “Last year, when we weren’t very good, I drove to the ballpark all the time.” Buck Martinez, a former major league catcher and former Blue Jays manager who has broadcast Blue Jays games for 15 years, said that Schneider reminds him “of Bobby Cox in 1985,” the year that the Blue Jays started to win.
Straw, like Clement, is considered a “glue guy.” Straw appreciated the compliment, but said, “We have 10 of those guys on this team.” Schneider said, “This is the tightest group I’ve ever been around.”
Designated hitter George Springer‘s three-run homer in the seventh inning of Game 7 of the ALCS, was one of the three biggest home runs in club history. Springer struggled terribly last year at the plate but worked with former Astros teammate Michael Brantley, a dear friend and a great hitting instructor, in the offseason. Springer, who hit sixth on Opening Day, raised his OPS .285 points in 2025, by far the biggest increase in the major leagues. He became an elite player again, he returned to the leadoff spot and probably will finish in the top five in AL MVP voting this year. “He is 36 years old, but he acts and plays like he is 20,” Schneider said. When told that the Blue Jays’ defense was exceptional this season, Springer laughed and said, “Well, that’s because they got the old guy off the field and let the young bucks roam around the outfield.”
The Blue Jays win because of an elite defense, good starting pitching and an offense that led the major leagues in batting with a .265 average. They changed their offense approach this season: use your “A” swing every time, or don’t swing. “Sell out,” Schneider said. “Or don’t swing.” In the postseason, the Blue Jays hit .296; the rest of the playoff teams hit a combined .218. They put the ball in play better than any team in the major leagues. “The major league batting average on balls in play is .300, that’s all you need to know,” Bassitt said. “In the game today, striking out is OK. Not here. For us, it’s not OK to strike out.” In the postseason, the Blue Jays struck out 65 times compared to 108 by their opponent. They struck out every 6.1 at-bats. All other teams in the postseason averaged a strikeout every 3.4 at-bats. The Blue Jays scored 71 runs and struck out 65 times. The last team to score more runs than they had strikeouts in 11 postseason games was the 2007 Red Sox, who won the World Series. And that’s why the Blue Jays have a fighting chance against the mighty Dodgers.
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Jays’ Bichette, Dodgers’ Kershaw on WS rosters
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2 hours agoon
October 24, 2025By
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Jorge CastilloOct 24, 2025, 11:43 AM ET
Close- ESPN baseball reporter. Covered the Washington Wizards from 2014 to 2016 and the Washington Nationals from 2016 to 2018 for The Washington Post before covering the Los Angeles Dodgers and MLB for the Los Angeles Times from 2018 to 2024.
TORONTO — Bo Bichette, who has not played since spraining his left knee in early September, was added to the Toronto Blue Jays‘ roster for the World Series against the Los Angeles Dodgers.
The Blue Jays also included first baseman Ty France on their roster for the first time this postseason. Outfielder Joey Loperfido and right-handed reliever Yariel Rodriguez, who were on the American League Championship Series roster, were not included.
The question is how limited is Bichette.
A two-time All-Star shortstop, Bichette has not played in a game since injuring his knee in a collision with Yankees catcher Austin Wells on Sept. 6. He attempted to return in time for the AL Championship Series but could not run the bases without significant pain the day before the Blue Jays had to submit their roster.
Bichette worked out at second base and faced live pitching Wednesday and Thursday. Blue Jays manager John Schneider said Bichette could play second base, shortstop or serve as the team’s designated hitter. If he is the DH, George Springer would likely move to right field.
A free agent this winter, Bichette had a rebound season after posting a .598 OPS in 81 games in an injury-plagued 2024 campaign. The homegrown star, 27, finished second in the majors with a .311 batting average and hit 18 home runs with 94 RBI and an .840 OPS.
Without him, the Blue Jays have played Andres Gimenez, their regular second baseman, at shortstop in the postseason with Isiah Kiner-Falefa getting most of the starts at second base.
Los Angeles added right-handers Edgardo Henriquez and Will Klein while dropping lefty Alex Vesia and righty Ben Casparius. The Dodgers said Thursday that Vesia was not with the team in Toronto because of a family matter.
Former closer Tanner Scott was not added. The left-hander was dropped from the National League Division Series roster following surgery on Oct. 8 to remove of an abscess from an infection on his lower body.
Clayton Kershaw, who was left off the Dodgers’ wild-card series roster and did not pitch in the NL Championship Series, is on the World Series roster. Kershaw has said he plans to retire after this season.
Information from the Associated Press was used in this report.
Sports
Thamel: Five questions that will define a wild CFB coaching carousel
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2 hours agoon
October 24, 2025By
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On Oct. 20 of last year, college football’s first two firings unfolded with little fanfare — East Carolina let go of Mike Houston and Southern Miss dismissed Will Hall.
By that date in 2025, there already were 11 programs — including seven major conference teams — that dismissed their coach.
Those seven openings far outpace the final statistics from 2024, when just three coaches were fired for performance — Purdue’s Ryan Walters, UNC’s Mack Brown and West Virginia’s Neal Brown.
Since this season started, there have been six firings at major conference schools — UCLA, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma State, Arkansas, Penn State and Florida. (Stanford’s firing of Troy Taylor came after off-field tumult this offseason.)
So, how did we get to the point where there are 11 open jobs on the 2025 calendar — including UAB, Oregon State, Kent State and Colorado State — before the first open job in 2024?
There’s a confluence of factors that range from the slow power conference cycle in 2024 to the professionalization of college programs demanding instant results. (One industry source said jokingly that Curt Cignetti’s instant success at Indiana ruined the expectation curve for all coaches.)
How crazy will this cycle get? One industry source summed it up this way: “There’s not enough good coaches to fill all of these spots. It’s never a good year to be in the market, but especially not this year.”
We dove into the numbers and asked industry sources how they see it playing out, as the busiest and most expensive coaching carousel in the sport’s history looms.
Could this be the busiest coaching carousel ever?
In short, yes. Especially with the early flurry of Power 5 jobs.
Comparisons are tricky because of conference realignment and variables like season-long interim coaches. But the most major conference jobs open in a recent season happened in the 2021-22 cycle, when there were 14, per ESPN Research. That cycle included USC (Lincoln Riley), LSU (Brian Kelly), Notre Dame (Marcus Freeman), Florida (Billy Napier), Miami (Mario Cristobal), Oklahoma (Brent Venables) and Oregon (Dan Lanning).
This year is shaping up to rival that, as in the modern era, this is the earliest we’ve seen seven power conference jobs open.
Also on the radar are Auburn, Florida State and Wisconsin, with the latter two schools issuing statements about the futures of their coaches this week.
There are also eyes on Deion Sanders’ health at Colorado, Kyle Whittingham’s potential retirement at Utah and Bill Belichick’s struggles at UNC. Kentucky is 0-4 in the SEC under Mark Stoops, but the Wildcats would owe him nearly $38 million within 60 days of firing him.
And there are still six weeks left in the season. The legacy of Franklin’s firing at Penn State is that nearly every coach is a three-game losing streak from his job being in trouble. So, don’t be surprised if another school or two finds its situation untenable as the losses pile up. And never rule out a surprise retirement or two, as we’ve seen veteran coaches monitor the landscape and head off to their beach houses in recent years in college football and basketball.
Combine current openings with potential ones and the inevitable dominoes of hiring away sitting coaches from other power conference jobs, and it’s clear that the recent benchmark of 14 power jobs from the 2021-22 cycle and 2015-16 cycle will be threatened. (That number is 15 in 2021-22 if you count SMU, which has since moved to the ACC, and 16 in 2015-16 if you count UCF and BYU. College sports never makes these things easy.)
From a pure numbers standpoint, we’re likely amid a historic three-year run. The NCAA keeps annual tabs on new coaches in the FBS, and the past two cycles have been the first time in college football history, per the NCAA, that at least 30 new coaches have arrived in back-to-back years.
There were 32 to start the 2024 season, and there were 30 to start this season. The only other time in the FBS era there have been more than 30 is 2013, when there were 31 new coaches, good for a record 25.2% turnover.
That 30-coach benchmark appears likely to be eclipsed again. Even with a handful of duplicate jobs those years, it means somewhere over 60% of the sport is destined to turn over in three years.
How large will buyouts loom?
For decades, coaches were the largest talent expense for a program. And because of the competition to hire and retain them, it became standard practice for schools to offer lengthy guaranteed salaries.
And that has led to piles of dead money being paid to coaches. An ESPN study found $533.6 million in dead money in athletic departments for coaches over an 11-year period from Jan. 1, 2010, to Jan. 31, 2021. There’s already more than $100 million in buyout money owed this year, although many contracts are subject to offset and mitigation. (If Franklin gets a job for $25 million over five years, for example, that would be subtracted from the $49 million he’s owed through the 2031 season.)
But there are also a few more big figures potentially looming — Mike Norvell’s $58 million with Florida State, Freeze’s $15 million with Auburn and Luke Fickell’s more than $25 million with Wisconsin. Those will factor into decision-making at those schools.
As another industry source adds: “Look at the candidate pool. If it’s close and you think you might have the right guy, you don’t go in.”
What became apparent through calls this week is that the fervor over coaches is unlikely to translate to changed behavior in contracts. Restraint and discipline don’t often coincide with desperation.
Could a coach who makes the playoff jump to a new job?
Technically, sure. But in reality, that would be a hire that redefines awkward. ESPN spoke to a half a dozen sources about this, and the answers vary. With the transfer portal not opening until Jan. 2, there’s certainly a chance that a school could wait out a playoff coach.
But two looming factors would be difficult to overcome, even if there’s a proverbial “deal in the drawer” that a coach has agreed to in advance.
The first is that the coach would put his current team’s title hopes at risk, as his team would be suspicious if a major job remained open and he dodged answers about it. (Not to mention, didn’t sign a new deal with his current school.)
The second is simple — what happens if a coach wins a few games? A coach could play in the first round Dec. 19 or Dec. 20, lose the game and leave a day or two after to set up his roster in time for next year. But a win or two could extend his season into mid-January, and any athletic director who waits a month and doesn’t have a coach in place for the start of the portal would get squeamish.
“The tough part will be, if you have that search open, how do you keep it quiet?” an industry source said. “You’re going to have to keep a process going. The only way I see it happening is that school would have to keep a search going all that time.”
The portal might officially open Jan. 2, but most deals will be done long before. Even with a strong general manager at a program, the ambiguity would undercut the first year’s roster tremendously.
Essentially, the coach and school would have to announce that he’s leaving. The coach would then coach out the playoff, with the idea that the players are all free agents at the end of every season. It would be awkward and heavily criticized, but that might be the only option.
So, if a program wants a coach projected to reach the playoff — think Ole Miss’ Lane Kiffin, USF’s Alex Golesh or Georgia Tech’s Brent Key — there would be some hard conversations.
Who are the big names who could move?
Kiffin and Nebraska coach Matt Rhule will be the biggest names looming over the carousel, as they are the speculative favorites for the jobs at Florida (Kiffin) and Penn State (Rhule).
There are three former power conference coaches who could factor into the major jobs this year — former Northwestern coach Pat Fitzgerald, former Wake Forest coach Dave Clawson and former Florida State/Texas A&M coach Jimbo Fisher. The opportunity to go early and avoid the dangerous game of musical chairs may make those coaches attractive.
There are plenty of sitting power conference coaches who’ll generate interest and could move.
In the ACC, SMU’s Rhett Lashlee, Georgia Tech’s Key ($4 million buyout), Louisville’s Jeff Brohm ($1 million) and Cal’s Justin Wilcox ($1 million to leave after regular season) all have been bandied about.
In the Big Ten, Rhule, Minnesota’s P.J. Fleck and Washington’s Jedd Fisch are being discussed. (Rhule’s buyout is $5 million, Fleck’s is $5.5 million and Fisch’s is $10 million.)
In the SEC, Missouri’s Eliah Drinkwitz’s buyout drops from $5 million to $4 million after Dec. 1. Clark Lea has Vanderbilt 6-1, and the Commodores are the toast of the country this year. South Carolina’s Shane Beamer ($5 million buyout) will remain a name at Virginia Tech until that job is filled.
In the Big 12, the buzziest names are Iowa State’s Matt Campbell ($2 million buyout), ASU’s Kenny Dillingham ($4 million) and BYU’s Kalani Sitake (unknown).
Any of those would create further ripples.
How did we get here?
Well, everything changed. So, it makes sense that the coaching cycle would, too. There will be PhD projects and books written about the past handful of years in college athletics.
If you consider the entire player procurement and payment model being overhauled, it makes sense that there’s constant turnover on the landscape.
And with bigger investments by schools come more urgency for results. And acquisition mistakes are magnified because they come with an actual price tag.
“I think in the last three or four years, because of NIL, I just think it’s changed so much,” an industry veteran said. “If you’re going to lead a bunch of 18-to-23-year-olds, the relationship part is so different now that money is involved. Coaching and getting the most out of kids is so different because of the financial implications.”
Combine that with bosses stressed over money and boosters having more sway because they are footing the NIL bills, and the coaching market is haywire. Another industry source joked that “every school’s Cody Campbell” now has bigger sway in hires, referencing the ubiquitous Texas Tech booster.
With investment and uncertainty on parallel tracks, it only makes sense that volatility follows.
Marisa Dowling contributed to this report.
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