Here’s the deflation breakdown for July 2024 — in one chart
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Inflation cooled below 3% in July 2024, the first time it dropped beneath that level in more than three years.
While many areas of the U.S. economy are disinflating — meaning their prices are still rising, though at a slower rate — some have been outright deflating. That means their prices have actually declined.
Deflation has largely occurred for physical goods, though it has also appeared in categories such as airline fares, gasoline and various food items, according to the consumer price index.
These are “micro pockets” of deflation, said Joe Seydl, senior markets economist at J.P. Morgan Private Bank.
But the deflationary dynamic is less widespread than it was earlier in the pandemic, when the unwinding of contorted supply-and-demand dynamics made it more pronounced, economists said.
“Broadly speaking, deflation for various items is increasingly less broad-based,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s.
Consumers shouldn’t expect a broad and sustained fall in prices across the U.S. economy. That generally doesn’t happen unless there’s a recession, economists said.
Why goods prices have fallen
“Core” goods — commodity prices excluding those related to food and energy — have declined by about 2% since July 2023, on average, according to CPI data.
They fell 0.3% during the month, from June to July 2024.
Demand for physical goods soared in the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic as consumers were confined to their homes and couldn’t spend on things such as concerts, travel or dining out.
The health crisis also snarled global supply chains, meaning goods weren’t hitting the shelves as quickly as consumers wanted them.
Such supply-and-demand dynamics drove up prices.
The environment has changed, however.
To that point, the initial pandemic-era craze of consumers fixing up their homes and upgrading their home offices has diminished, cooling prices. Supply-chain issues have also largely unwound, economists said.
Furniture and bedding prices are down more than 5% since July 2023, according to CPI data. Prices have also fallen over the past year for dishes and flatware (down about 8%), laundry equipment (-6%), nonelectric cookware (-10%), toys (-3%), and tools and hardware (-1%), according to the CPI.
Apparel prices are also down, for men’s and women’s outerwear (-12% and -4%, respectively), and infants and toddlers’ apparel (-4%), for example.
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Prices for new and used vehicles have fallen by 1% and 11%, respectively, since July 2023. Car and truck rental prices have deflated about 6%.
Car prices were among the first to surge when the economy reopened broadly early in 2021, amid a shortage of semiconductor chips essential for manufacturing.
“Vehicle prices remain under pressure from improved inventory and elevated financing costs,” Sarah House and Aubrey George, economists at Wells Fargo Economics, wrote in a note in July.
Higher financing costs are the result of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates to tame high inflation. Economists expect central bank officials to start cutting rates at their next policy meeting in September.
Outside of supply-demand dynamics, the U.S. dollar’s strength relative to other global currencies has also helped rein in prices for goods, economists said. This makes it less expensive for U.S. companies to import items from overseas, since the dollar can buy more.
Long-term forces such as globalization have also helped, by increasing imports of more lower-priced goods from China, economists said.
Deflation for airfare, food and electronics
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Airline fares have declined about 3% over the past year, according to CPI data.
The drop is partly attributable to a decline in jet fuel prices, said Stephen Brown, deputy chief North America economist at Capital Economics. Average aviation jet fuel prices are down about 17% from last year, according to the International Air Transport Association.
Airlines have also increased the volume of seats available on domestic routes, largely by flying bigger planes, Hayley Berg, lead economist at travel site Hopper, wrote in April.
This summer, “we’ve repeatedly seen airlines slash prices on many routes for travel in the next few months,” wrote Gunnar Olson, flight deal analyst at Thrifty Traveler. “It’s led us to declare that this is the best summer ever for travel.”
Grocery prices have fallen for items such as cereal, rice, bread, ham, fish, cheese, ice cream, potatoes, apples, bananas, margarine and snacks, according to CPI data.
Each grocery item has its own supply-and-demand dynamics that can influence pricing, economists said. For example, apple prices have deflated almost 15% in the past year due to a supply glut.
Additionally, there have been more price promotions lately at grocery stores, with a few “major retailers recently announcing price cuts that are likely to pressure competitors’ pricing,” wrote House and George of Wells Fargo.
Other categories’ deflationary dynamics may be happening only on paper.
For example, in the CPI data, the Bureau of Labor Statistics controls for quality improvements over time. Electronics such as televisions, cellphones and computers continually get better, meaning consumers generally get more for the same amount of money.
That shows up as a price decline in the CPI data.
Yolo County, California depends on its climate for continued agricultural success. As such, the county’s leaders are taking environmental stewardship seriously by aiming for full carbon neutrality by 2030. To help achieve that goal, they’re putting zero-emission machinery like the Volvo DD25 Electric compactor to work.
We got our first chance to sample the DD25 Electric at Volvo Days last summer, where the all-electric tandem roller’s vibrating drums impressed dealers and end users alike. It was no surprise, then, that when Yolo Country fleet superintendent, Ben Lee, when shopping for a compactor the DD25 Electric was high on his list.
“The DD25 Electric will help us achieve our goals in several ways,” explains Lee. “By reducing emissions, lowering noise levels, being more energy-efficient, improving working conditions and promoting environmentally friendly practices … we’ll use it to compact soil, gravel and other base materials for road and foundation projects, as well as rolling out and leveling asphalt during road construction and resurfacing.”
To help Lee handle those various projects, the Volvo’s drum frequency can be adjusted from 3500 vpm (55 Hz) to 4000 vpm (67 Hz) to cater to different applications and materials.
The DD25 Electric offers other benefits, as well – like a 20 kWh 48V battery that offers up between six and eight hours of continuous operation. That’s could be several shifts in the kind of conditions Yolo’s work crews will encounter, meaning it will only have to get put to bed (Volvo recommend overnight AC charging) two or three times a week.
Getting power to the compactor, too, is something Yolo is considering. “There are some remote areas in the county, so we’re looking into a mobile, self-contained charging unit as well,” explains Lee, apparently referencing the Volvo PU130 mobile battery. “So we wouldn’t have to bring the machine back to the yard each night during a long-term project.”
Yolo County views electric equipment as an essential step in reducing emissions and energy consumption, especially as communities work towards stricter regulations and sustainability goals.
Electrek’s Take
This press release came to us ahead of the devastating wild fires in Southern California that are dominating headlines right now – so much so that I effectively sat on the news for a few days, debating whether or not we should even be talking about a California news story that isn’t about the fires right now.
But I realized: this story is about the fires. Climate change driven by combustion and carbon emissions is driving climate change and that’s making fires like these possible … and I should have run it sooner.
SOURCE | IMAGES: Volvo CE.
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Kubota came to this year’s CES with a sprawling display filled with electric equipment, hydrogen gensets, and an onslaught of commercial robots ready to mow, farm, dig, and build. If you weren’t impressed by Kubota’s display this year, you weren’t paying attention.
Kubota gave us a sneak peek of its KATR farm robot – itself a smaller, updated version of last year’s New Agri Concept – before the doors officially opened last week. Kubota’s robotic farm buddies promise to be able to quietly and autonomously haul stuff from one end of the farm to another, or pull carts and specialized implements along predetermined paths.
KATR uses self-leveling technology and active suspension to ensure its cargo deck stays level when working on the sort of uneven terrain found on farms or construction sites.
That doesn’t mean the New Agri Concept is dead, though. Agri Concept 2.0 debuted as an electric tractor concept offering AI-powered automation and a fully electric powertrain. The new version features a Lite Brite-style “grille” that it uses to communicate its current mode, direction, and other important information with the people it shares a job site with.
On the more practical side, Kubota showed off its KX38-4e Electric compact excavator. First shown in overseas markets in 2022, the KX38-4e Electric features a 49.2 kWh lithium-ion battery that’s good for up to five hours of continuous operation. More than enough to complete a typical day of work on a construction site when you factor out idle time.
An onboard DC fast charger means it can be quickly recharged between shifts, too. But when there’s no grid power on the site, charging can be a challenge. That’s why Kubota has hydrogen genset for zero-emission on-site power generation.
Looked at individually, each of the new electric Kubota products on display might be impressive. The real magic, though, is in the way the Kubota machines work together as a holistic job site or farm solution.
“At Kubota, we believe that truly listening to our customers drives innovation in every aspect of what we call the ‘Work Loop’,” explains Brett McMickell, Chief Technology Officer of Kubota North America. “The Work Loop — an essential cycle of assessing, analyzing, and acting — has always been fundamental to effective task management. With the integration of advanced sensors, AI-driven analysis, networking protocols, automation, and robotics, we are enhancing this cycle to be more seamless and efficient than ever before.”
That was obvious in some of the more thoughtful implements and attachments on display, including a Smart Plant Imager that uses advanced robotics and “hyper-spectral imaging” cameras to capture real-time data and insights on a plant-by-plant level – as well as a Smart Autonomous Sprayer and Robotic Pruner that that classifies buds and canes based on position and fruiting potential, it optimizes production precision and accuracy.
The more you look, the more impressive Kubota’s farming solution gets. “We will continue to learn from many of our customers across segments to iterate the next product and technology solution that will help them manage tomorrow’s challenges and grow their businesses,” McMickell added. “This is how Kubota works to make a better quality of life for individuals and society.”
There was more, of course. Autonomous versions of the company’s electric zero-turn mower with GPS-powered route memory, fun accessory baskets for the robots, even a weird, jet engine looking thing that I forgot to ask about (below). I was genuinely impressed, in other words, and can’t wait to see what Kubota comes up with next year.
Kubota CES2025 | more photos
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The e-bike industry has stalled a little bit in terms of features, and with harsh new legislation coming in from places like California, maybe it is time to start looking at e-bikes that are light, efficient, and smooth rather than how much wattage they can output. The Tenways CGO 600Pro, which comes in at just 37 pounds, is a model e-bike you should keep an eye on…
The CGO 600Pro comes in 2 flavors: a carbon belt single-speed version that Micah reviewed and this one, which is a chain and 8-speed Shimano gears. The belt drive is going to win out on simplicity and weight but if you are expecting to get close to the ‘class 1’ top speed of 20mph or need to go up some significant hills, you’ll want to opt for the chain/gear version here.
One thing I love about this bike is the tradeoff decisions. These keep the price low and weight down while still providing a great ride. The spec sheet overall is solid but not top-shelf.
Tenways CGO600 Pro tech specs (chain/geared version)
- Motor: 350 Watt rear hub motor with 45 Nm of torque
- Top speed: 20 mph (32 km/h)
- Range: Claimed up to 53 miles (85 km)
- Battery: 36V 10Ah (360 Wh)
- Weight: 37 lb (16.8 kg, over 40lbs with fenders, kickstand, etc)
- Frame: 6061 aluminum alloy
- Tires: CST Puncture-proof 700*45C-size Tires
- Brakes: Tektro dual-piston hydraulic disc brakes
- Gearing: Shimano 8-Speed Claris
- Extras: Compact LED display, 4 pedal assist levels, slim fender set, kickstand, internally routed cables, LED lighting, removable battery, Tenways app integration, torque sensor, four color options
No Throttle?
Note that as a class 1 e-bike, neither belt/chain version has a throttle. While this may be controversial to some, it not only simplifies the bike, it makes it a Class 1, which will be legal in the most places. I tend to think of no throttle as a “foot throttle” and for the commuter application, this will serve well. Would I appreciate a throttle on a hill start? Perhaps.
The idea of this bike is to just enhance your pedal bike experience. You are going to get some exercise on this bike versus a bike that is a glorified low-power moped that runs on throttle with vestigial pedals.
More importantly, the torque sensor here is phenomenal; I mean, it is probably the best torque sensor I’ve ridden connected to a rear hub motor. The acceleration is smooth and strangely powerful for the 350W/45nm motor. Significant hills are a breeze, and this is one of the few bikes where I forget that I’m using an e-bike sometimes (until I look down and I’m going 20mph with little effort). Hills are also where the gearing really helps.
The tires are also the perfect size for a commuter with puncture resistance and treads that will do OK in rain and snow.
The bike itself is also very stealthy in terms of showing that it is a powered e-bike. The small 36V, 10Ah battery is integrated magnificently into the narrow downtube of the bike. All of the cables are integrated into the bike frame for a super-clean look. The rear hub motor is small but packs a punch. Many people won’t even recognize this as an e-bike. While I’m proud to be riding an e-bike around, perhaps some people would like to keep that on the down-low.
Brakes are great with hydraulic Tektros clasping against 160mm rotors in front and back. It is such a light bike that stopping can be jarring.
Assembly was super easy and took about 30 minutes with the included tool set. The battery came about 40% charged but was ready to go within a few hours with the 3A charger. Shoutout to Tenways for using a water-resistant standardized barrel charger adapter and not some proprietary adapter so that I can use one from another bike when I inevitably lose it.
Electrek’s take
The Tenways CGO600 is a fantastic light, clean, stiff and smooth e-bike that I have 0 reservations about recommending. While the battery and motor are small, they power the light bike admirably and for around 50 miles (your mileage will vary).
Currently there is a $200 off promotion code “HAPPY2025TW” at checkout bringing the CGO600Pro down to $1399 which is an amazing price for this bike:
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