Replacing China in copper supply chain is ‘unfeasible,’ warns WoodMac, as the West seeks shift
A worker tying copper wire rods before loading them onto a truck in Huai’an, in China’s Jiangsu Province.
Vcg | Visual China Group | Getty Images
Western countries seeking to diversify away from China’s dominance in copper could delay the energy transition besides raising costs, while its complete replacement would be ‘unfeasible,’ according to Wood Mackenzie.
China leads the world in key segments of the copper supply chain, with the critical metal serving as an important component in emerging technologies such as renewable energy, energy storage and electric vehicles.
As the U.S., Canada, Australia, and European countries seek to displace the country’s hold on copper through subsidies and investment, Wood Mackenzie warns that the dual aims of decarbonization and reduced dependence on Beijing are at odds with one another.
“Hundreds of billions of dollars in new copper processing and fabrication capacity would be required to replace China,” the natural resources’ data analytics firm said a report released on Thursday, adding that demand for the metal could grow by 75% to 56 million tons by 2050.
“This would create inefficiencies that would result in significantly higher-priced finished goods and increase the cost and timeliness of the energy transition,” it added.
Existing mines and projects under construction will meet only 80% of copper needs by 2030, according to the International Energy Agency, indicating a potential shortage of the metal.
According to Wood Mackenzie, most of the world’s initial mining of raw materials occurs primarily in the Americas and Africa, with China’s domestic mining output constituting just 8% of global production.
Though that share rises closer to 20% after accounting for China’s overseas mining assets, the country will still need to secure additional supplies to meet its needs. The rest of the world has enough primary mine supply to meet current requirements, the report said.
The copper supply chain, however, comprises several key phases, including mining, smelting and refining, fabricating, and the manufacturing of finished goods.
And what the rest of the world has in copper mines, it lacks in China’s dominance in downstream processing and manufacturing, according to the report.
“As governments and manufacturers aim to diversify away from China, it is crucial to consider the entire supply chain, not just mining operations,” said Nick Pickens, research director of global mining at Wood Mackenzie.
“While copper supply risks can be mitigated and some rebalancing has begun in various countries, the scale of China’s dominance in the supply chain means complete replacement is unfeasible.”
Molten copper flowing into molds at a smelting plant in Wuzhou, China.
He Huawen | Visual China Group | Getty Images
The report outlines that 80% of copper mining produces copper concentrate, which must be processed at smelters and refineries to produce copper cathode. Fabricators then use that material to make copper components that wind up in finished goods.
Since 2000, China has been responsible for 75% of the world’s smelter capacity growth, according to Wood Mackenzie’s data.
“A scenario without China for the copper supply chain would require a substantial increase in processing capacity to meet energy transition targets,” said Pickens.
The report said that there are currently no plans for new primary smelting capacities in North America or Europe. Instead, the U.S. has focused on secondary markets and copper recycling, recently establishing its first secondary smelter for multi-metal recycling in the country.
China also accounts for around 80% of additions in copper and copper alloy fabrication capacity globally since 2019, with it now having half of the world’s fabrication capacity.
Legislations like the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) in the U.S. have aimed to subsidize critical mineral investments. However, with copper, such efforts have met hurdles in the U.S. and Europe due to factors such as low utilization, high operating costs, and environmental regulations, the report said.
“Pragmatism and compromise will be essential to achieve net zero goals without imposing excessive costs on taxpayers. Easing global trade restrictions could be one necessary concession,” Pickens said.
Yolo County, California depends on its climate for continued agricultural success. As such, the county’s leaders are taking environmental stewardship seriously by aiming for full carbon neutrality by 2030. To help achieve that goal, they’re putting zero-emission machinery like the Volvo DD25 Electric compactor to work.
We got our first chance to sample the DD25 Electric at Volvo Days last summer, where the all-electric tandem roller’s vibrating drums impressed dealers and end users alike. It was no surprise, then, that when Yolo Country fleet superintendent, Ben Lee, when shopping for a compactor the DD25 Electric was high on his list.
“The DD25 Electric will help us achieve our goals in several ways,” explains Lee. “By reducing emissions, lowering noise levels, being more energy-efficient, improving working conditions and promoting environmentally friendly practices … we’ll use it to compact soil, gravel and other base materials for road and foundation projects, as well as rolling out and leveling asphalt during road construction and resurfacing.”
To help Lee handle those various projects, the Volvo’s drum frequency can be adjusted from 3500 vpm (55 Hz) to 4000 vpm (67 Hz) to cater to different applications and materials.
The DD25 Electric offers other benefits, as well – like a 20 kWh 48V battery that offers up between six and eight hours of continuous operation. That’s could be several shifts in the kind of conditions Yolo’s work crews will encounter, meaning it will only have to get put to bed (Volvo recommend overnight AC charging) two or three times a week.
Getting power to the compactor, too, is something Yolo is considering. “There are some remote areas in the county, so we’re looking into a mobile, self-contained charging unit as well,” explains Lee, apparently referencing the Volvo PU130 mobile battery. “So we wouldn’t have to bring the machine back to the yard each night during a long-term project.”
Yolo County views electric equipment as an essential step in reducing emissions and energy consumption, especially as communities work towards stricter regulations and sustainability goals.
Electrek’s Take
This press release came to us ahead of the devastating wild fires in Southern California that are dominating headlines right now – so much so that I effectively sat on the news for a few days, debating whether or not we should even be talking about a California news story that isn’t about the fires right now.
But I realized: this story is about the fires. Climate change driven by combustion and carbon emissions is driving climate change and that’s making fires like these possible … and I should have run it sooner.
SOURCE | IMAGES: Volvo CE.
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Kubota came to this year’s CES with a sprawling display filled with electric equipment, hydrogen gensets, and an onslaught of commercial robots ready to mow, farm, dig, and build. If you weren’t impressed by Kubota’s display this year, you weren’t paying attention.
Kubota gave us a sneak peek of its KATR farm robot – itself a smaller, updated version of last year’s New Agri Concept – before the doors officially opened last week. Kubota’s robotic farm buddies promise to be able to quietly and autonomously haul stuff from one end of the farm to another, or pull carts and specialized implements along predetermined paths.
KATR uses self-leveling technology and active suspension to ensure its cargo deck stays level when working on the sort of uneven terrain found on farms or construction sites.
That doesn’t mean the New Agri Concept is dead, though. Agri Concept 2.0 debuted as an electric tractor concept offering AI-powered automation and a fully electric powertrain. The new version features a Lite Brite-style “grille” that it uses to communicate its current mode, direction, and other important information with the people it shares a job site with.
On the more practical side, Kubota showed off its KX38-4e Electric compact excavator. First shown in overseas markets in 2022, the KX38-4e Electric features a 49.2 kWh lithium-ion battery that’s good for up to five hours of continuous operation. More than enough to complete a typical day of work on a construction site when you factor out idle time.
An onboard DC fast charger means it can be quickly recharged between shifts, too. But when there’s no grid power on the site, charging can be a challenge. That’s why Kubota has hydrogen genset for zero-emission on-site power generation.
Looked at individually, each of the new electric Kubota products on display might be impressive. The real magic, though, is in the way the Kubota machines work together as a holistic job site or farm solution.
“At Kubota, we believe that truly listening to our customers drives innovation in every aspect of what we call the ‘Work Loop’,” explains Brett McMickell, Chief Technology Officer of Kubota North America. “The Work Loop — an essential cycle of assessing, analyzing, and acting — has always been fundamental to effective task management. With the integration of advanced sensors, AI-driven analysis, networking protocols, automation, and robotics, we are enhancing this cycle to be more seamless and efficient than ever before.”
That was obvious in some of the more thoughtful implements and attachments on display, including a Smart Plant Imager that uses advanced robotics and “hyper-spectral imaging” cameras to capture real-time data and insights on a plant-by-plant level – as well as a Smart Autonomous Sprayer and Robotic Pruner that that classifies buds and canes based on position and fruiting potential, it optimizes production precision and accuracy.
The more you look, the more impressive Kubota’s farming solution gets. “We will continue to learn from many of our customers across segments to iterate the next product and technology solution that will help them manage tomorrow’s challenges and grow their businesses,” McMickell added. “This is how Kubota works to make a better quality of life for individuals and society.”
There was more, of course. Autonomous versions of the company’s electric zero-turn mower with GPS-powered route memory, fun accessory baskets for the robots, even a weird, jet engine looking thing that I forgot to ask about (below). I was genuinely impressed, in other words, and can’t wait to see what Kubota comes up with next year.
Kubota CES2025 | more photos
Original content from Electrek.
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The e-bike industry has stalled a little bit in terms of features, and with harsh new legislation coming in from places like California, maybe it is time to start looking at e-bikes that are light, efficient, and smooth rather than how much wattage they can output. The Tenways CGO 600Pro, which comes in at just 37 pounds, is a model e-bike you should keep an eye on…
The CGO 600Pro comes in 2 flavors: a carbon belt single-speed version that Micah reviewed and this one, which is a chain and 8-speed Shimano gears. The belt drive is going to win out on simplicity and weight but if you are expecting to get close to the ‘class 1’ top speed of 20mph or need to go up some significant hills, you’ll want to opt for the chain/gear version here.
One thing I love about this bike is the tradeoff decisions. These keep the price low and weight down while still providing a great ride. The spec sheet overall is solid but not top-shelf.
Tenways CGO600 Pro tech specs (chain/geared version)
- Motor: 350 Watt rear hub motor with 45 Nm of torque
- Top speed: 20 mph (32 km/h)
- Range: Claimed up to 53 miles (85 km)
- Battery: 36V 10Ah (360 Wh)
- Weight: 37 lb (16.8 kg, over 40lbs with fenders, kickstand, etc)
- Frame: 6061 aluminum alloy
- Tires: CST Puncture-proof 700*45C-size Tires
- Brakes: Tektro dual-piston hydraulic disc brakes
- Gearing: Shimano 8-Speed Claris
- Extras: Compact LED display, 4 pedal assist levels, slim fender set, kickstand, internally routed cables, LED lighting, removable battery, Tenways app integration, torque sensor, four color options
No Throttle?
Note that as a class 1 e-bike, neither belt/chain version has a throttle. While this may be controversial to some, it not only simplifies the bike, it makes it a Class 1, which will be legal in the most places. I tend to think of no throttle as a “foot throttle” and for the commuter application, this will serve well. Would I appreciate a throttle on a hill start? Perhaps.
The idea of this bike is to just enhance your pedal bike experience. You are going to get some exercise on this bike versus a bike that is a glorified low-power moped that runs on throttle with vestigial pedals.
More importantly, the torque sensor here is phenomenal; I mean, it is probably the best torque sensor I’ve ridden connected to a rear hub motor. The acceleration is smooth and strangely powerful for the 350W/45nm motor. Significant hills are a breeze, and this is one of the few bikes where I forget that I’m using an e-bike sometimes (until I look down and I’m going 20mph with little effort). Hills are also where the gearing really helps.
The tires are also the perfect size for a commuter with puncture resistance and treads that will do OK in rain and snow.
The bike itself is also very stealthy in terms of showing that it is a powered e-bike. The small 36V, 10Ah battery is integrated magnificently into the narrow downtube of the bike. All of the cables are integrated into the bike frame for a super-clean look. The rear hub motor is small but packs a punch. Many people won’t even recognize this as an e-bike. While I’m proud to be riding an e-bike around, perhaps some people would like to keep that on the down-low.
Brakes are great with hydraulic Tektros clasping against 160mm rotors in front and back. It is such a light bike that stopping can be jarring.
Assembly was super easy and took about 30 minutes with the included tool set. The battery came about 40% charged but was ready to go within a few hours with the 3A charger. Shoutout to Tenways for using a water-resistant standardized barrel charger adapter and not some proprietary adapter so that I can use one from another bike when I inevitably lose it.
Electrek’s take
The Tenways CGO600 is a fantastic light, clean, stiff and smooth e-bike that I have 0 reservations about recommending. While the battery and motor are small, they power the light bike admirably and for around 50 miles (your mileage will vary).
Currently there is a $200 off promotion code “HAPPY2025TW” at checkout bringing the CGO600Pro down to $1399 which is an amazing price for this bike:
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