Replacing China in copper supply chain is ‘unfeasible,’ warns WoodMac, as the West seeks shift
A worker tying copper wire rods before loading them onto a truck in Huai’an, in China’s Jiangsu Province.
Vcg | Visual China Group | Getty Images
Western countries seeking to diversify away from China’s dominance in copper could delay the energy transition besides raising costs, while its complete replacement would be ‘unfeasible,’ according to Wood Mackenzie.
China leads the world in key segments of the copper supply chain, with the critical metal serving as an important component in emerging technologies such as renewable energy, energy storage and electric vehicles.
As the U.S., Canada, Australia, and European countries seek to displace the country’s hold on copper through subsidies and investment, Wood Mackenzie warns that the dual aims of decarbonization and reduced dependence on Beijing are at odds with one another.
“Hundreds of billions of dollars in new copper processing and fabrication capacity would be required to replace China,” the natural resources’ data analytics firm said a report released on Thursday, adding that demand for the metal could grow by 75% to 56 million tons by 2050.
“This would create inefficiencies that would result in significantly higher-priced finished goods and increase the cost and timeliness of the energy transition,” it added.
Existing mines and projects under construction will meet only 80% of copper needs by 2030, according to the International Energy Agency, indicating a potential shortage of the metal.
According to Wood Mackenzie, most of the world’s initial mining of raw materials occurs primarily in the Americas and Africa, with China’s domestic mining output constituting just 8% of global production.
Though that share rises closer to 20% after accounting for China’s overseas mining assets, the country will still need to secure additional supplies to meet its needs. The rest of the world has enough primary mine supply to meet current requirements, the report said.
The copper supply chain, however, comprises several key phases, including mining, smelting and refining, fabricating, and the manufacturing of finished goods.
And what the rest of the world has in copper mines, it lacks in China’s dominance in downstream processing and manufacturing, according to the report.
“As governments and manufacturers aim to diversify away from China, it is crucial to consider the entire supply chain, not just mining operations,” said Nick Pickens, research director of global mining at Wood Mackenzie.
“While copper supply risks can be mitigated and some rebalancing has begun in various countries, the scale of China’s dominance in the supply chain means complete replacement is unfeasible.”
Molten copper flowing into molds at a smelting plant in Wuzhou, China.
He Huawen | Visual China Group | Getty Images
The report outlines that 80% of copper mining produces copper concentrate, which must be processed at smelters and refineries to produce copper cathode. Fabricators then use that material to make copper components that wind up in finished goods.
Since 2000, China has been responsible for 75% of the world’s smelter capacity growth, according to Wood Mackenzie’s data.
“A scenario without China for the copper supply chain would require a substantial increase in processing capacity to meet energy transition targets,” said Pickens.
The report said that there are currently no plans for new primary smelting capacities in North America or Europe. Instead, the U.S. has focused on secondary markets and copper recycling, recently establishing its first secondary smelter for multi-metal recycling in the country.
China also accounts for around 80% of additions in copper and copper alloy fabrication capacity globally since 2019, with it now having half of the world’s fabrication capacity.
Legislations like the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) in the U.S. have aimed to subsidize critical mineral investments. However, with copper, such efforts have met hurdles in the U.S. and Europe due to factors such as low utilization, high operating costs, and environmental regulations, the report said.
“Pragmatism and compromise will be essential to achieve net zero goals without imposing excessive costs on taxpayers. Easing global trade restrictions could be one necessary concession,” Pickens said.
Mitsubishi is partnering with Ample and Yamoto Transports to deploy an innovative new battery swap network for electric cars in its Japanese home market — but it’s not just for electric cars. Mitsubishi Fuso commercial trucks are getting in on the action, too!
Despite a number of early EV adopters with an overdeveloped concept of ownership, battery swap technology has proven to be both extremely effective and extremely positive to the overall EV ownership experience. And when you see how simple it is to add hundreds of miles of driving in just 100 seconds — quicker, in many cases, than pumping a tank of liquid fuel into an ICE-powered car — you might come around, yourself.
That seems to be what Mitsubishi thinks, anyway, and they’re hoping they’ll be your go-to choice when it’s time to electrify your regional and last-mile commercial delivery fleet(s) by launching a multi-year pilot program to deploy more than 150 battery-swappable commercial electric vehicles and 14 modular battery swapping stations across Tokyo, where the company plans to showcase its “five minute charging” tech in full view of hundreds of commercial fleets and, crucially, the executives of the companies that own and manage them.
A truck like the Mitsubishi eCanter typically requires a full night of AC charging to top off its batteries, and at least an hour or two on DC charging in Japan, according to Fuso. This joint pilot by Mitsubishi, Mitsubishi Fuso Trucks, and Ample aims to circumvent this issue of forced downtime with its swappable batteries, supporting vehicle uptime by delivering a full charge within minutes. The move is meant to encourage the transport industry’s EV shift while creating a depository of stored energy that can be deployed to the grid in the event of a natural disaster — something Mitsubishi in Japan has been working on for years.
Trucks like the eCanter already serve a number of roles throughout the global truck market, including municipal waste collection, regional delivery support, and more.
The pilot is backed by Tokyo Metropolitan Government’s “Technology Development Support Project for Promoting New Energy,” with local delivery operator Yamato Transport testing swappable EVs for delivery operations on both its eCanter light-duty trucks and Mitsubishi Minicab kei-class electric vans.
Electrek’s Take
Electrifying the commercial truck fleet is a key part of decarbonizing city truck fleets – not just here in the US, but around the world. I called the eCanter, “a great product for moving stuff around densely packed city streets,” and eliminating the corporate fear of EV charging in the wild just makes it an even better product for that purpose.
Here’s hoping we see more “right size” electric solutions like this one (and more battery swapping tech) in small towns and tight urban environments stateside somewhat sooner than later.
SOURCES | IMAGES: Mitsubishi, Fuso.
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After becoming the first European brand to offer fully electric versions of every model it sells — and at the same price as the ICE models — Opel is going even further, with a new, AWD electric SUV that should give American Jeep fans hope for a new electric Cherokee!
Now part of the Stellantis, rather than GM portfolio of brands, Rüsselsheim-based Opel showed off the first official pictures of its new Opel Grandland Electric AWD — the company’s first all-electric SUV to feature the “Blitz” performance emblem and all-wheel drive.
“Our top-of-the-range Grandland SUV is a milestone for Opel,” says Opel CEO Florian Huettl. “Customers already have a choice of battery-electric drive, plug-in hybrid and hybrid with 48-volt technology. We are now offering even more choice with the Grandland Electric AWD and thus ensuring that our customers can enjoy maximum efficiency and safety in diverse weather and road conditions, combined with plenty of driving fun.”
Stellantis gets it right in Europe
Opel says its new, AWD Grandland is its most aerodynamically efficient model yet, with a drag coefficient (Cd) of just 0.278. That efficiency, paired with similarly efficient electric motors and a 73 kWh li-ion NMC battery give the electric crossover a 501 km (311 mile) WLTP range, while a combined 325 hp and 375 lb-ft of torque should make for suitably spirited acceleration to go along with all that green cred.
Suspension and handling, too, are promised to deliver on what Opel claims is a “typical” Teutonic driving experience in the Grandland AWD:
Both driving pleasure and comfort are further emphasized by dampers with frequency selective damping technology. This unique technology comes as standard on the Grandland Electric AWD and incorporates a second hydraulic circuit in the damper chamber to mechanically adapt the damping force in relation to the frequency. Depending on the situation, road surface conditions and driving style, it enables different damping characteristics for comfortable gliding at high frequencies – i.e. with short impacts such as on cobblestones or a manhole cover – as well as for a sporty, ambitious driving style with more direct contact with the road at low frequencies. The Grandland reacts even more immediately and directly to any command from the driver and, as is typical for Opel, remains stable when braking, cornering and at high speeds on the Autobahn.
OPEL PRESS RELEASE
The Opel Grandland Electric AWD ships with four standard drive modes that include “normal,” eco, sport, and 4WD mode, which simulates locking axles and true 4×4 off-road performance. The ESP and traction control systems adopt specific settings to enhance grip in 4WD mode as well, and maximum power and torque are instantly available.
Electrek’s Take
As you maybe could tell by now, feeding European Stellantis EVs into an AI image generator and asking it to “make them into Jeeps” is one of my new favorite things to do. This new Opel is no different, and the resulting image (above) paired with the models’ stated specs give me hope that the next wave of Jeep EVs will do better than the Wagoneer S at attracting buyers. All they really need, I think, is the right name — and the right price, to be winners.
SOURCE | IMAGES: Opel.
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Like a 90s “gifted” kid that was supposed to be a lot of things, the electric Jeep Wagoneer S never really found its place — but with dealers discounting the Jeep brands forward-looking flagship by nearly $25,000, it might be time to give the go-fast Wagoneer S a second look.
SKIP THE STORY: get straight to the deals.
Whether we’re talking about Mercedes-Benz, Cerberus, Fiat, or even Enzo Ferrari, outsiders have labeled Jeep as a potentially premium brand that could, “if managed properly,” command luxury-level prices all over the globe. That hasn’t happened, and Stellantis is just the latest in a long line of companies to sink massive capital into the brand only to realize that people will not, in fact, spend Mercedes money on a Jeep.
That said, the Jeep Wagoneer S is not a bad car (and neither is its totally different, hideously massive, ICE-powered Wagoneer sibling, frankly). Built on the same Stellantis STLA Large vehicle platform that underpins the sporty Charger Daytona EVs, the confusingly-named Wagoneer S packs dual electric motors putting out almost 600 hp. That’s good enough to scoot the ‘ute 0 to 60 mph in a stomach-turning 3.5 seconds and enough, on paper, to convince Stellantis executives that they had developed a real, market-ready alternative to the Tesla Model Y.
With the wrong name and a sky-high starting price of $66,995 (not including the $1,795 destination fee), however, that demand didn’t materialize, leaving the Wagoneer S languishing on dealer lots across the country.
That could be about to change, however, thanks to big discounts on Wagoneer S being reported at CDJR dealers in several states, according to our friends at the Car Dealership Guy podcast.
- Jimmy Britt Chrysler Dodge Jeep Ram in Georgia, has a Wagoneer S with an MSRP of $67,590 listed at $43,104 ($24,486 off)
- In Florida, Taverna Chrysler Dodge Jeep Ram Fiat has a $67,590 Wagoneer S slashed to $43,138 ($24,452 off)
- Chris Nikel Chrysler Jeep Dodge Ram Fiat in Oklahoma has a Wagoneer S listed for $43,425 ($24,165 off)
“Stellantis bet big on electric versions of iconic American brands like Jeep and Dodge, but consumers aren’t buying the premise,” writes CDG’s Marcus Amick. “(Stellantis’ dealer body) is now stuck with expensive EVs that need huge discounts to move, eating into already thin margins while competitors focus on [more] profitable gas-powered vehicles.”
All of which is to say: if you’ve found yourself drawn to the Jeep Wagoneer S, but couldn’t quite stomach the $70,000+ window stickers, you might want to check in with your local Jeep dealer and see how you feel about it at a JCPenneys-like 30% off!
Jeep Wagoneer S gallery
SOURCES | IMAGES: Car Dealership Guy, CarScoops, and CarsDirect.
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